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Vehicle Technologies and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Research and Development Programs Benefits Assessment Report for 2020

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Offices (VTO and HFTO) support research and development of efficient and sustainable transportation technologies that will improve energy efficiency, minimize emissions, and enable America to use less petroleum. VTO and HFTO regularly revisit and update relevant research and development goals and areas of emphasis in response to the latest technological advancements and in alignment with current national priorities. As such, analyses of expected benefits resulting from VTO and HFTO investments and anticipated goal achievements are updated periodically and will be again for 2021 in the context of the latest national-level transportation decarbonization goals. The analysis in the present report is based on technical progress goals established in VTO and HFTO in the years immediately prior to and including 2020, and it summarizes the estimated energy and emissions benefits corresponding to achievement of those goals. The goals span research activities on batteries, electric drive technologies (EDT), combustion, lightweight materials, fuel cells, and hydrogen storage. The evaluation includes detailed analyses into the benefits of technology improvements on the U.S. light-duty (LD) vehicle fleet and separately on the U.S. medium- and heavy-duty (MDHD) vehicle fleet. This report summarizes the outcomes from each of these analyses both independently and in combination.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Time and space resolved diagnostics for plasma thermal-chemical instability of fuel oxidation in nanosecond plasma discharges

Here, an instability in a nanosecond pulsed dielectric barrier discharge plasma occurring in methane–oxygen–argon mixtures is experimentally observed and measured by 1D time-resolved in situ electric field measurements. This instability, which seems to be created by the positive feedback between plasma kinetics and plasma-assisted low temperature fuel oxidation, is studied using electric field induced second harmonic generation and direct ICCD imaging. The rapid formation of streamers from an originally uniform discharge appears to be caused by the chemical kinetics of plasma-assisted low temperature methane oxidation, which may be resulting in a new type of plasma instability: a thermal-chemical instability. The results also revealed that the occurrence of this possible thermal-chemical instability in a reactive flow drastically changes the plasma properties by forming multiple secondary discharges and possibly leads to micron-sized non-uniform electric distributions. Single shot uncalibrated measurements of the electric field of the micron sized streamers appears to show much greater strengths than the average electric field. Furthermore, one-dimensional data analysis shows the positive feedback loop between the streamers and the low temperature plasma assisted oxidation chemistry in the plasma thermal-chemical instability. The present finding advances the understanding plasma instability growth and provides a new way to control plasma uniformity in plasma-assisted combustion and plasma fuel reforming.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Oxidation Behavior of GRCop-84 Copper Alloy Assessed

NASA's goal of safe, affordable space transportation calls for increased reliability and lifetimes of launch vehicles, and significant reductions of launch costs. The areas targeted for enhanced performance in the next generation of reusable launch vehicles include combustion chambers and nozzle ramps; therefore, the search is on for suitable liner materials for these components. GRCop-84 (Cu-8Cr-4Nb), an advanced copper alloy developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center in conjunction with Case Western Reserve University, is a candidate. The current liner of the Space Shuttle Main Engine is another copper alloy, NARloy-Z (Cu-3Ag-0.1Zr). It provides a benchmark against which to compare the properties of candidate successors. The thermomechanical properties of GRCop-84 have been shown to be superior, and its physical properties comparable, to those of NARloy-Z. However, environmental durability issues control longevity in this application: because copper oxide scales are not highly protective, most copper alloys are quickly consumed in oxygen environments at elevated temperatures. In consequence, NARloy-Z and most other copper alloys are prone to blanching, a degradation process that occurs through cycles of oxidation-reduction as the oxide is repeatedly formed and removed because of microscale fluctuations in the oxygen-hydrogen fuel systems of rocket engines. The Space Shuttle Main Engine lining typically degraded by blanching-induced hot spots that lead to surface roughening, pore formation, and coolant leakage. Therefore, resistance to oxidation and blanching are key requirements for second-generation reusable launch vehicle liners. The rocket engine ambient includes H2 (fuel) and H2O (combustion product) and is, hence, under reduced oxygen partial pressures. Accordingly, our studies were expanded to include oxygen partial pressures as low as 322 parts per million (ppm) at the temperatures likely to be experienced in service. A comparison of 10-hr weight gains of GRCop-84, NARloy-Z, and pure copper in 0.032, 2.2, and 100 percent oxygen from 550 to 750 C is shown. In 2.2 vol% and higher oxygen content, GRCop-84 oxidation was slower than that of NARloy-Z or Cu, but that advantage was lost or diminished in 322-ppm O2. Over longer (50-hr) exposures in 1.0 atm O2, however, the advantage of GRCop-84 increased significantly, its oxidation rate becoming approximately 10 times slower than those of Cu and NARloy-Z from 500 to 700 C. Weight gains were moderate and the kinetics parabolic for all three materials in 2.2 vol% and higher oxygen content; however, in 322-ppm O2, the scales were nonprotective below about 650 C, as reflected in linear kinetics and large weight gains. The superior oxidation resistance of GRCop-84 is likely related to the kinetics of extra oxygen consumption to form the additional oxides of Cr and Nb detected beneath the GRCop-84 oxide layer. While we continue to evaluate the blanching resistance of GRCop-84 in other tests, these oxidation results indicate that GRCop-84 is suitable as a reusable launch vehicle liner, and in applications where it is desired to use a copper alloy but without the risk of oxidative failure. Three bar charts comparing overall specific weight gains by each of the three materials studied. The top chart is for oxidation in 1.0 atm of oxygen, the middle is for 2.2% oxygen (balance argon), and the bottom is for 0.0322% oxygen. GRCop-84 outperforms the other two materials, showing the least weight gain in nearly all cases.

Thomas-Ogbuji, Linus U.↗

Analysis of soot formation from aviation fuels in laminar counterflow flames

Combustion emissions from aviation contribute to the formation of condensation trail (contrail) that can lead to the formation of anthropogenic cirrus clouds. Ice particles that form contrails are observed to have a linear correlation with soot particle number density. Synthetic aviation fuels (SAFs) offer a promising route to mitigate the production of soot particles while also increasing energy security. Although studies have focused on combustion and spray behavior, the detailed investigation of soot formation processes for different jet fuels and their impact on models for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) applications is not well understood. Moreover, experimental measurements of soot for canonical flames using Synthetic aviation fuels (SAF) for model validation remain scarce. To address this, we use employed the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) detailed soot model based on the discrete sectional method. Additionally, we develop two reduced chemical mechanisms for Jet-A and Alcohol-to-Jet (C1) that are suitable for turbulent flame simulations and couple them with the Hybrid Method of Moments (HMOM). The detailed and reduced model frameworks are validated against experimental measurements of soot volume fraction (ƒ ν ) from a counterflow burner experiment previously reported in the literature. Given the good agreement between modeling results and experimental measurements for the (1) spatial distribution of ƒ ν and (2) the non-linear variation of peak ƒ ν with strain rate, we further investigate the modeled sub-processes (nucleation, condensation, surface growth, and oxidation) using the LLNL model to analyze the assumptions in the reduced model framework. Furthermore, the results indicate a significant contribution from resonant radicals to the surface growth of soot particles, which are not accounted for in the current implementation of HMOM and could help reconcile soot predictions by the reduced model with observations.

Counterflow↗

A Hardened CARS System Utilized for Temperature Measurements in a Supersonic Combustor

A coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS) system has been hardened for use in a NASA Langley supersonic combustion test cell. The system can obtain temperature cross sections of the flow at three locations. The system is environmentally protected and remotely operated. Measurements were made in a scram-jet combustor model consisting of a rear- ward-facing step, followed by an expansion duct. The duct is nominally 4 feet in length. The free stream conditions were Mach 2, with static pressure which ranged from 0.8 to 1.9 atm, and a static temperature of approximately 800K. Three vertical slots were machined into each side of the duct to allow optical access. The CARS system utilized a planar BOXCARS beam arrangement. This arrangement allowed the laser beams to pass through the vertical slots in the tunnel. Translation stages were utilized to move the focussing volume within the tunnel. These stages allowed complete cross sections to be obtained at each slot location. A fiber optic carried the signal to a remotely located monochrometer and reticon detector.Data for two different flow conditions were taken at each of the three slot locations. These two conditions provided a comparison between reacting and non-reacting mixing of injected hydrogen fuel with the combustion heated supersonic stream.

Antcliff, Richard R.↗

Combustion characteristics of hydrogen-carbon monoxide based gaseous fuels

The results of trials with a staged combustor designed to use coal-derived gaseous fuels and reduce the NO(x) emissions from nitrogen-bound fuels to 75 ppm and 37 ppm without bound nitrogen in 15% O2 are reported. The combustor was outfitted with primary zone regenerative cooling, wherein the air cooling the primary zone was passed into the combustor at 900 F and mixed with the fuel. The increase in the primary air inlet temperature eliminated flashback and autoignition, lowered the levels of CO, unburned hydrocarbons, and smoke, and kept combustion efficiencies to the 99% level. The combustor was also equipped with dual fuel injection to test various combinations of liquid/gas fuel mixtures. Low NO(x) emissions were produced burning both Lurgi and Winkler gases, regardless of the inlet pressure and temperature conditions. Evaluation of methanation of medium energy gases is recommended for providing a fuel with low NO(x) characteristics.

White, D. J.↗

Design and Development of a CPCI-Based Electronics Package for Space Station Experiments

The NASA John H. Glenn Research Center is developing a Compact-PCI (CPCI) based electronics package for controlling space experiment hardware on the International Space Station. Goals of this effort include an easily modified, modular design that allows for changes in experiment requirements. Unique aspects of the experiment package include a flexible circuit used for internal interconnections and a separate enclosure (box in a box) for controlling 1 kW of power for experiment fuel heating requirements. This electronics package was developed as part of the FEANICS (Flow Enclosure Accommodating Novel Investigations in Combustion of Solids) mini-facility which is part of the Fluids and Combustion Facility s Combustion Integrated Rack (CIR). The CIR will be the platform for future microgravity combustion experiments and will reside on the Destiny Module of the International Space Station (ISS). The FEANICS mini-facility will be the primary means for conducting solid fuel combustion experiments in the CIR on ISS. The main focus of many of these solid combustion experiments will be to conduct applied scientific investigations in fire-safety to support NASA s future space missions. A description of the electronics package and the results of functional testing are the subjects of this report. The report concludes that the use of innovative packaging methods combined with readily available COTS hardware can provide a modular electronics package which is easily modified for changing experiment requirements.

Kolacz, John S.↗

Spark-Assisted HCCI Residential CHP

A transformative small spark ignition (SI) internal combustion (IC) engine fueled with natural gas was developed for combined heat and power (CHP) applications using a combination of cycle simulations, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling, and engine experiments. The resulting 1 kW CHP engine was demonstrated to achieve 36.1% brake thermal efficiency (BTE) while meeting aggressive exhaust emissions targets using a low-cost three-way catalyst. Starting from a “clean-sheet” design, modeling tools were used to select the optimal engine parameters and operating characteristics. The disruptive technologies developed for the CHP system have a target lifetime of at least 10 years. The engine cost at volume of 10,000 units was estimated to be $\$$1,050. A combination of experimental and simulation results were used to identify a path to the program target of 38.6% BTE. Base engine design parameters (i.e., displacement, speed, bore, stroke, valve timings, and compression ratio) were optimized to reduce friction, heat transfer, and exhaust losses. The base clean sheet prototype engine achieved 32% BTE. Optimization of the lube oil and coolant temperatures added 1.8% BTE. The addition of exhaust gas recirculation added 1.1% BTE. Novel thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) developed over the course of the project added 1.2% BTE. Further improvements in engine friction reduction (1.3% BTE) and improved combustion (1.2% BTE) are estimated to meet the program target 38.6% BTE, while also meeting the stringent criteria pollutant emissions targets.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Investigation of Critical Burning of Fuel Droplets

An earlier analysis for the combustion response of a liquid monopropellant strand (hydrazine) was extended to consider individual droplets and sprays. While small drops gave low or negative response, large droplets provided response near unity at low frequencies, with the response declining at frequencies greater than the characteristic liquid phase frequency. Temperature gradients in the liquid phase resulted in response peaks greater than unity. A second response peak was found for large drops which corresponded to gas phase transient effects. Spray response was generally reduced from the response of the largest injected droplet, however, even a small percentage of large droplets can yield appreciable response. An apparatus was designed and fabricated to allow observation of bipropellant fuel spray combustion at elevated pressures. A locally homogeneous model was developed to describe this combustion process which allows for high pressure phenomena associated with the thermodynamic critical point.

Chanin, S. P.↗

Isomer-resolved unimolecular dynamics of the hydroperoxyalkyl intermediate (•QOOH) in cyclohexane oxidation

The oxidation of cycloalkanes is important in the combustion of transportation fuels and in atmospheric secondary organic aerosol formation. A transient carbon-centered radical intermediate (•QOOH) in the oxidation of cyclohexane is identified through its infrared fingerprint and time- and energy-resolved unimolecular dissociation dynamics to hydroxyl (OH) radical and bicyclic ether products. Although the cyclohexyl ring structure leads to three nearly degenerate •QOOH isomers (β-, γ-, and δ-QOOH), their transition state (TS) barriers to OH products are predicted to differ considerably. Selective characterization of the β-QOOH isomer is achieved at excitation energies associated with the lowest TS barrier, resulting in rapid unimolecular decay to OH products that are detected. A benchmarking approach is employed for the calculation of high-accuracy stationary point energies, in particular TS barriers, for cyclohexane oxidation (C 6 H 11 O 2 ), building on higher-level reference calculations for the smaller ethane oxidation (C 2 H 5 O 2 ) system. The isomer-specific characterization of β-QOOH is validated by comparison of experimental OH product appearance rates with computed statistical microcanonical rates, including significant heavy-atom tunneling, at energies in the vicinity of the TS barrier. Master-equation modeling is utilized to extend the results to thermal unimolecular decay rate constants at temperatures and pressures relevant to cyclohexane combustion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Comparison of Several Methods of Measuring Ignition Lag in a Compression-ignition Engine

The ignition lag of a fuel oil in the combustion chamber of a high speed compression-ignition engine was measured by three different methods. The start of injection of the fuel as observed with a Stoborama was taken as the start of the period of ignition lag in all cases. The end of the period of ignition lag was determined by observation of the appearance of incandescence in the combustion chamber, by inspection of a pressure-time card for evidence of pressure rise, and by analysis of the indicator card for evidence of the combustion of a small but definite quantity of fuel. A comparison of the values for ignition lags obtained by these three methods indicates that the appearance of incandescence is later than other evidences of the start of combustion, that visual inspection of a pressure-time diagram gives consistent and usable values with a minimum requirement of time and/or apparatus, and that analysis of the indicator card is not worth while for ignition lag alone.

Spanogle, J A↗

Performance and flexibility improvements of Staged Pressurized Oxy-Combustion

Staged Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (SPOC) is a low-carbon coal combustion power technology being developed by Washington University in St. Louis (WUSTL). Oxy-combustion plants enable straightforward capture of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) by removing most of the nitrogen in the combustion air prior to use, thereby burning fuel in near-pure oxygen instead of air, producing a flue gas containing primarily CO 2 and water. CO 2 capture at amounts > 90% is possible, often using cryogenic air separation. Oxy-combustion typically relies on flue gas recycle (FGR) to reduce the peak temperature and radiation that would otherwise occur in a fuel/oxygen only flame. SPOC reduces the peak temperatures of combustion by utilizing two or more pressurized boiler modules connected in series to produce fuel staging; hence, only a portion of the fuel is combusted in any given furnace module. This means that the thermal energy released at each stage can be captured and removed from the gases prior to subsequent stages, when more fuel is introduced. This allows the SPOC process to operate with minimal FGR, avoiding the associated efficiency losses and additional costs. Also, the process operates at an elevated gas-side pressure, reducing boiler size, enhancing heat transfer to achieve a compact boiler configuration as compared to an atmospheric-pressure boiler design, and allowing for recovery of the latent heat of the water from the flue gas at a temperature useful to the steam cycle. The resultant net efficiency of the system is over 3 percentage points greater than traditional atmospheric-pressure oxy-combustion, and 7 percentage points greater than the post combustion variant, representing a step-change improvement over first-generation capture technologies. To further develop the concept, WUSTL and the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc., organized a project with American Air Liquide, Inc., Doosan Babcock Limited, and the U.S. Department of Energy to investigate a practicable and workable boiler design. The team has identified the potential for enhanced process flexibility for controlling power generation over a wider load range than is normally available to conventional coal-fired power plants due to the staged nature of the heat release. With increasing intermittent renewable generator contribution, on-demand generators need to be highly flexible to participate in the future energy market, requiring extensive operation at reduced load. Conventional coal-fired steam generators typically face challenges in maintaining temperature control of the reheat steam and main steam at reduced loads. This results in inefficient operation, both in terms of the boiler efficiency and steam turbine heat rate. The results of this project show the SPOC process is capable of exceptional turndown, both on a stage basis and with the ability to bypass entire stages. Oxygen-supply flexibility was also investigated, as this is also a key consideration for the overall flexibility of the SPOC process given the operating constraints of conventional air separation units. A boiler design concept assessment was conducted and was focused on delivering compact and constructible design. The assessment checked appropriate tube operating metal temperatures at full load and at lower operating loads, balanced against the needs of efficient coal combustion, and the resultant slagging and ash environments. Combustion testing in the 100-kWth pressurized combustion test rig at WUSTL was carried out to validate the combustion, heat flux profiles and burnout at multiple loads. Combustion parameters investigated were flame stability, fuel burnout, ash composition, radiative heat flux, and temperature profiles. The results of these tests formed the basis of a full-scale boiler design that will encompass improvements in both efficiency and flexibility over conventional oxy-combustion processes. The air separation unit flexibility was investigated, and associated cost implications were addressed. Detailed economic assessment results for a 550 MWe net power block are also provided, allowing for a comparison against the baseline NETL oxy-combustion and post combustion capture cases.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Fiber-Supported Droplet Combustion Experiment-2

A major portion of the energy produced in the world today comes from the burning of liquid hydrocarbon fuels in the form of droplets. Understanding the fundamental physical processes involved in droplet combustion is not only important in energy production but also in propulsion, in the mitigation of combustion-generated pollution, and in the control of the fire hazards associated with handling liquid combustibles. Microgravity makes spherically symmetric combustion possible, allowing investigators to easily validate their droplet models without the complicating effects of gravity. The Fiber-Supported Droplet Combustion (FSDC-2) investigation was conducted in the Microgravity Glovebox facility of the shuttles' Spacelab during the reflight of the Microgravity Science Laboratory (MSL- 1R) on STS-94 in July 1997. FSDC-2 studied fundamental phenomena related to liquid fuel droplet combustion in air. Pure fuels and mixtures of fuels were burned as isolated single and duo droplets with and without forced air convection. FSDC-2 is sponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center, whose researchers are working in cooperation with several investigators from industry and academia. The rate at which a droplet burns is important in many commercial applications. The classical theory of droplet burning assumes that, for an isolated, spherically symmetric, single-fuel droplet, the gas-phase combustion processes are much faster than the droplet surface regression rate and that the liquid phase is at a uniform temperature equal to the boiling point. Recent, more advanced models predict that both the liquid and gas phases are unsteady during a substantial portion of the droplet's burning history, thus affecting the instantaneous and average burning rates, and that flame radiation is a dominant mechanism that can extinguish flames in a microgravity environment. FSDC-2 has provided well-defined, symmetric droplet burning data including radiative emissions to validate these theoretical models for heptane, decane, ethanol, and methanol fuels. Since most commercial combustion systems burn droplets in a convective environment, data were obtained without and with convective flow over the burning droplet (see the following photos).

Colantonio, Renato O.↗

A scalable compressible volume of fluid solver using a stratified flow model

Here, in this paper, a Volume of Fluid method which uses a Stratified Flow model for flux calculation is proposed to solve a compressible multiphase flow in a way that has high parallel efficiency. The solver is part of an open-source computing tool to study fuel entrainment and combustion in the application of paraffin-based hybrid rocket motors. This paper focuses on the compressible Volume of Fluid solver for the liquid and gaseous phases in this environment. This solver uses perfect gas and stiffened gas models for equation of state, with the ability to easily add other models as desired. Additionally a comparison of a Riemann solver versus an AUSM+up scheme is conducted, showing improvement with the later in the solution of multiphase flows. This solver successfully reproduces shock tube cases with the expected accuracy, as well as simulating two-dimensional shear and gravity-driven flows. Results also show that the code is able to utilize a Stratified Flow model to evaluate shear flow without the need for interface reconstruction or gradient calculations. Finally, it is shown that the solver has near-ideal scaling under strong scaling tests as well as good performance in static scaling, giving improved performance over current options and implying future advancement of high-performance computing efficiency for multiphase flow solvers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Life-cycle analysis of offshore macroalgae production systems in the United States

Offshore macroalgae production offers the potential to provide valuable biomass for food, energy, and higher value products without the use of land or freshwater while using excess nutrients and carbon dioxide. To realize this potential, the Macroalgae Research Inspiring Novel Energy Resources program of the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy has initiated projects to develop advanced cultivation technologies that enable the cost- and energy-efficient production of macroalgal biomass. Here, this study addresses the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and energy return on investment for five U.S. offshore macroalgae production systems designed for deployment at the thousand-hectare scale using a detailed module developed within the GREET life-cycle analysis model for this study. The carbon intensity of macroalgae production system designs, expressed as kg of carbon dioxide equivalent per dry metric ton of algae harvested, vary widely from 49 to 220 and confirm that biomass productivity has the highest degree of sensitivity across the model parameters tested. Regardless of the system designs, the upstream and combustion emissions from fuel use are the key contributor (over 45 %) to carbon intensity, indicating that the use of low-carbon fuels (e.g., renewable diesel) could further reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Further studies need to specify the market opportunity and specific product slates for macroalgae to provide a complete picture of the environmental impacts of macroalgal feedstock.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Numerical simulation for the design of induction heating based radio frequency reactor for ethylene production

Ethylene is a vital petrochemical compound produced in vast amounts yearly by manufacturers that have enough scale to overcome the inherent thermodynamic inefficiencies of the process. In order to address the inefficiencies that prevent smaller scale or intermittent production ethylene, investigation of new production methods are required. In this work, we investigate the use of a radio frequency (RF) based reactor system that generates heat internally as opposed to applying heat externally via steam or direct combustion of fossil fuels. In order to guide the design of an electromagnetic based reactor system, we have created a macroscale model capable of capturing heat generation at the susceptors from a produced electromagnetic field and subsequent chemical reactions. Several susceptor and induction coil designs were investigated to better understand the performance of the system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Recent progress in the synthesis of advanced biofuel and bioproducts

Energy is one of the most complex fields of study and an issue that influences nearly every aspect of modern life. Over the past century, combustion of fossil fuels, particularly in the transportation sector, has been the dominant form of energy release. Refining of petroleum and natural gas into liquid transportation fuels is also the centerpiece of the modern chemical industry used to produce materials, solvents, and other consumer goods. In the face of global climate change, the world is searching for alternative, sustainable means of producing energy carriers and chemical building blocks. The use of biofuels in engines predates modern refinery optimization and today represents a small but significant fraction of liquid transportation fuels burnt each year. Similarly, white biotechnology has been used to produce many natural products through fermentation. The evolution of recombinant DNA technology into modern synthetic biology has expanded the scope of biofuels and bioproducts that can be made by biocatalysts. Furthermore, this opinion examines the current trends in this research space, highlighting the substantial growth in computational tools and the growing influence of renewable electricity in the design of metabolic engineering strategies. In short, advanced biofuel and bioproduct synthesis remains a vibrant and critically important field of study whose focus is shifting away from the conversion of lignocellulosic biomass toward a broader consideration of how to reduce carbon dioxide to fuels and chemical products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Carbon and energy cost impacts of electrification of space heating with heat pumps in the US

In order to meet climate goals, it will be necessary to significantly reduce the greenhouse gases emitted by homes. A key factor in the US is to reduce the on-site combustion of fossil fuels for heating end-uses and to replace this with use of electric heat pump technologies connected to a low-carbon grid. The replacement of natural gas furnaces with electric heat pumps is a key home decarbonization strategy. However, the potential for space heating electrification to reduce greenhouse gas emissions depends on the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e) content of the electricity used by the heat pump. This varies considerably depending on the source of electricity, with large state to state variability. Furthermore, household energy costs are likely to be impacted by the electrification of space heating, because retail energy prices for both natural gas and electricity in each state vary by factors of seven and four, respectively. Contractors, energy programs, government and building code officials, as well as consumers need clear indications of the likely CO 2 e and energy cost impacts of proposed electrification projects, because these will affect decarbonization choices and rationales around scaled heating electrification. Government and utility programs also need to be aware of the likely outcomes of any supported/incentivized measures. Here, in this paper, we investigate these effects by looking at new metrics to analyze the change in CO 2 e emitted and the cost to meet home heating loads when switching from a natural gas furnace to a heat pump for the contiguous 48 states of the mainland US.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗