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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

A Machine Learning Assisted Development of a Model for the Populations of Convective and Stratiform Clouds

Abstract Traditional parameterizations of the interaction between convection and the environment have relied on an assumption that the slowly varying large‐scale environment is in statistical equilibrium with a large number of small and short‐lived convective clouds. They fail to capture nonequilibrium transitions such as the diurnal cycle and the formation of mesoscale convective systems as well as observed precipitation statistics and extremes. Informed by analysis of radar observations, cloud‐permitting model simulation, theory, and machine learning, this work presents a new stochastic cloud population dynamics model for characterizing the interactions between convective and stratiform clouds, with the goal of informing the representation of these interactions in global climate models. Fifteen wet seasons of precipitating cloud observations by a C‐band radar at Darwin, Australia are fed into a machine learning algorithm to obtain transition functions that close a set of coupled equations relating large‐scale forcing, mass flux, the convective cell size distribution, and the stratiform area. Under realistic large‐scale forcing, the derived transition functions show that, on the one hand, interactions with stratiform clouds act to dampen the variability in the size and number of convective cells and therefore in the convective mass flux. On the other, for a given convective area fraction, a larger number of smaller cells is more favorable for the growth of stratiform area than a smaller number of larger cells. The combination of these two factors gives rise to solutions with a few convective cells embedded in a large stratiform area, reminiscent of mesoscale convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of solvent forces and broken symmetry on the assembly of designed proteins at a liquid-solid interface

The era of protein design has enabled the creation of hybrid protein-inorganic interfaces, leading to both surface-directed self-assembly of de novo protein architectures and protein-directed formation of inorganic materials. However, the resulting patterns of protein assembly are often unexpected, implying that essential interactions are not accounted for in current design platforms. Here, we use high-speed atomic force microscopy (AFM) analyzed through machine learning to follow the assembly of protein nanorods in aqueous electrolytes on two types of mica exhibiting disparate symmetry elements, which are imprinted on the overlying hydration structure. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we reproduce the observed phases and show that an observed smectic phase, previously thought to be unstable for non-interacting rods in two dimensions, emerges when crystal symmetry introduces a directional bias. The findings demonstrate the importance of incorporating solvent forces as modulated by the hydration structure inherent to interfacial systems when designing protein assemblies at liquid-crystal interfaces. Coupling physics-based simulations that can account for these factors to de novo protein design algorithms can lead to improved design platforms for bio-inspired, hybrid materials.

bioinspired materials↗

An Open-Source Framework for Characterizing Urban Energy Models: Integrating Top-Down and Bottom-Up Methods to Predict Residential Buildings Characteristics: Preprint

Bottom-up urban energy models are crucial for understanding current energy use patterns and informing design strategies. However, accurately characterizing these models to represent different communities remains a challenge due to the extensive data needed for simulating existing energy use behavior. This data includes information related to human activities and building characteristics, all of which correlate with socioeconomic factors. To overcome this challenge, we developed an automated framework that utilizes both top-down and bottom-up data, to predict unknown building and occupant characteristics that are needed for more accurate and equitable modeling and analytics. Our framework, integrated into the URBANopt district energy modeling platform, uses statistical data models from ResStock. URBANopt models co-located buildings and neighborhoods. At this scale there are data gaps in building characteristic data, such as materials, insulation, occupancy, income, and energy usage of the buildings. To address this data gap, we use ResStock data, representative at the census tract scale, and develop machine-learning and deeplearning techniques to disaggregate it to individual buildings. By mapping unique occupant, building and economic properties to URBANopt energy models, we gain detailed insights into the variability of building energy use across different neighborhoods. This insight helps deploy technologies for co-located buildings and supports targeted upgrades for communities with unique economic and demographic characteristics, ensuring energy equity. Accurate characterization of energy models allows us to develop equitable strategies tailored to diverse neighborhoods, whether underserved or affluent. Our automated framework streamlines energy modeling and provides a reliable tool for building energy characterization.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗

Extrapolating active layer thickness measurements across Arctic polygonal terrain using LiDAR and NDVI data sets

Landscape attributes that vary with microtopography, such as active layer thickness (ALT), are labor intensive and difficult to document effectively through in situ methods at kilometer spatial extents, thus rendering remotely sensed methods desirable. Spatially explicit estimates of ALT can provide critically needed data for parameterization, initialization, and evaluation of Arctic terrestrial models. In this work, we demonstrate a new approach using high-resolution remotely sensed data for estimating centimeter-scale ALT in a 5 km 2 area of ice-wedge polygon terrain in Barrow, Alaska. We use a simple regression-based, machine learning data-fusion algorithm that uses topographic and spectral metrics derived from multisensor data (LiDAR and WorldView-2) to estimate ALT (2 m spatial resolution) across the study area. Comparison of the ALT estimates with ground-based measurements, indicates the accuracy (r 2 = 0.76, RMSE ±4.4 cm) of the approach. While it is generally accepted that broad climatic variability associated with increasing air temperature will govern the regional averages of ALT, consistent with prior studies, our findings using high-resolution LiDAR and WorldView-2 data, show that smaller-scale variability in ALT is controlled by local eco-hydro-geomorphic factors. This work demonstrates a path forward for mapping ALT at high spatial resolution and across sufficiently large regions for improved understanding and predictions of coupled dynamics among permafrost, hydrology, and land-surface processes from readily available remote sensing data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Searching for pulsars using image pattern recognition

In the modern era of big data, many fields of astronomy are generating huge volumes of data, the analysis of which can sometimes be the limiting factor in research. Fortunately, computer scientists have developed powerful data-mining techniques that can be applied to various fields. In this paper, we present a novel artificial intelligence (AI) program that identifies pulsars from recent surveys by using image pattern recognition with deep neural nets—the PICS (Pulsar Image-based Classification System) AI. The AI mimics human experts and distinguishes pulsars from noise and interference by looking for patterns from candidate plots. Different from other pulsar selection programs that search for expected patterns, the PICS AI is taught the salient features of different pulsars from a set of human-labeled candidates through machine learning. The training candidates are collected from the Pulsar Arecibo L-band Feed Array (PALFA) survey. The information from each pulsar candidate is synthesized in four diagnostic plots, which consist of image data with up to thousands of pixels. The AI takes these data from each candidate as its input and uses thousands of such candidates to train its ∼9000 neurons. The deep neural networks in this AI system grant it superior ability to recognize various types of pulsars as well as their harmonic signals. The trained AI's performance has been validated with a large set of candidates from a different pulsar survey, the Green Bank North Celestial Cap survey. In this completely independent test, the PICS ranked 264 out of 277 pulsar-related candidates, including all 56 previously known pulsars and 208 of their harmonics, in the top 961 (1%) of 90,008 test candidates, missing only 13 harmonics. The first non-pulsar candidate appears at rank 187, following 45 pulsars and 141 harmonics. In other words, 100% of the pulsars were ranked in the top 1% of all candidates, while 80% were ranked higher than any noise or interference. The performance of this system can be improved over time as more training data are accumulated. This AI system has been integrated into the PALFA survey pipeline and has discovered six new pulsars to date.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Prospective estimation of organ dose in CT under tube current modulation

Purpose: Computed tomography (CT) has been widely used worldwide as a tool for medical diagnosis and imaging. However, despite its significant clinical benefits, CT radiation dose at the population level has become a subject of public attention and concern. In this light, optimizing radiation dose has become a core responsibility for the CT community. As a fundamental step to manage and optimize dose, it may be beneficial to have accurate and prospective knowledge about the radiation dose for an individual patient. In this study, the authors developed a framework to prospectively estimate organ dose for chest and abdominopelvic CT exams under tube current modulation (TCM). Methods: The organ dose is mainly dependent on two key factors: patient anatomy and irradiation field. A prediction process was developed to accurately model both factors. To model the anatomical diversity and complexity in the patient population, the authors used a previously developed library of computational phantoms with broad distributions of sizes, ages, and genders. A selected clinical patient, represented by a computational phantom in the study, was optimally matched with another computational phantom in the library to obtain a representation of the patient’s anatomy. To model the irradiation field, a previously validated Monte Carlo program was used to model CT scanner systems. The tube current profiles were modeled using a ray-tracing program as previously reported that theoretically emulated the variability of modulation profiles from major CT machine manufacturers Li et al., [Phys. Med. Biol. 59, 4525–4548 (2014)]. The prediction of organ dose was achieved using the following process: (1) CTDI{sub vol}-normalized-organ dose coefficients (h{sub organ}) for fixed tube current were first estimated as the prediction basis for the computational phantoms; (2) each computation phantom, regarded as a clinical patient, was optimally matched with one computational phantom in the library; (3) to account for the effect of the TCM scheme, a weighted organ-specific CTDI{sub vol} [denoted as (CTDI{sub vol}){sub organ,weighted}] was computed for each organ based on the TCM profile and the anatomy of the “matched” phantom; (4) the organ dose was predicted by multiplying the weighted organ-specific CTDI{sub vol} with the organ dose coefficients (h{sub organ}). To quantify the prediction accuracy, each predicted organ dose was compared with the corresponding organ dose simulated from the Monte Carlo program with the TCM profile explicitly modeled. Results: The predicted organ dose showed good agreements with the simulated organ dose across all organs and modulation profiles. The average percentage error in organ dose estimation was generally within 20% across all organs and modulation profiles, except for organs located in the pelvic and shoulder regions. For an average CTDI{sub vol} of a CT exam of 10 mGy, the average error at full modulation strength (α = 1) across all organs was 0.91 mGy for chest exams, and 0.82 mGy for abdominopelvic exams. Conclusions: This study developed a quantitative model to predict organ dose for clinical chest and abdominopelvic scans. Such information may aid in the design of optimized CT protocols in relation to a targeted level of image quality.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-T-303: Dosimetric Comparison of a LINAC Fallback Plan Generated From Tomotherapy System

Purpose: Quantitatively evaluate the Multi Criteria Optimization (MCO) based MLC step and shoot (sMLC) fallback plan derived from Tomotherapy of multiple lesions lung SBRT Methods: Inter-comparison of various IMRT planning systems tends to be difficult due to the vendor-specific functionalities. The methodology of defining dose constraints and beam geometries is challenging. Raysearch™ planning system offers an alternative replanning to deliver same intensity map from Tomotherapy without modifying original fluence. This intuitive comparison comes from the final fluence map converted without any embedded system dependent dose optimization. This planner independent approach could be utilized to study the merits of individual machines. The term “fallback” was utilized to (A) transfer plans in among treatment delivery systems; (B) maintain acceptable plan qualities; and (C) minimize the biological dose impact due to machine breakdown. The Tomotherapy specific DICOM RT dose and plan are retrieved into Raystation’s pre-defined sMLC protocol. Based on specific machine characteristics, same fluence maps were converted to generate equivalent deliverable segments. Therefore, the treatment plans were evaluated among two planning tools, Tomotherapy and MCO based sMLC delivery plans. Results: By converting the fluence map with the pre-defined machine characteristics, the 9-fields fallback plan has similar ITV coverage compared to the original Tomotherapy plan. ITV average doses, the D95 consisted of 0.9% variation. The total lung doses of fallback plan drifted from 17.4% to 30.5% which represents the limitations of the static beam delivery. D2 of fallback spinal cord increased from 22.4% to 36.4% but still within tolerances. Ipsilateral lung changed from 11.0% to 22.6%. Low dose region between ITVs presented increased dose to the normal lung tissues. Conclusion: Acceptable fallback plan for Tomotherapy SBRT has similar ITVs coverage, but lack of the normal tissues avoidance due to the limitation of geometrical factors to reduce doses in between ITVs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Using Plant Asset Data and Feature Selection

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This paper focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 +- 0.014, 0.0026 +- 0, and 0.063 +- 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A differentiable, physics-informed ecosystem modeling and learning framework for large-scale inverse problems: demonstration with photosynthesis simulations

Photosynthesis plays an important role in carbon, nitrogen, and water cycles. Ecosystem models for photosynthesis are characterized by many parameters that are obtained from limited in situ measurements and applied to the same plant types. Previous site-by-site calibration approaches could not leverage big data and faced issues like overfitting or parameter non-uniqueness. Here we developed an end-to-end programmatically differentiable (meaning gradients of outputs to variables used in the model can be obtained efficiently and accurately) version of the photosynthesis process representation within the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) model. As a genre of physics-informed machine learning (ML), differentiable models couple physics-based formulations to neural networks (NNs) that learn parameterizations (and potentially processes) from observations, here photosynthesis rates. We first demonstrated that the framework was able to correctly recover multiple assumed parameter values concurrently using synthetic training data. Then, using a real-world dataset consisting of many different plant functional types (PFTs), we learned parameters that performed substantially better and greatly reduced biases compared to literature values. Further, the framework allowed us to gain insights at a large scale. Our results showed that the carboxylation rate at 25 °C (V c,max25 ) was more impactful than a factor representing water limitation, although tuning both was helpful in addressing biases with the default values. This framework could potentially enable substantial improvement in our capability to learn parameters and reduce biases for ecosystem modeling at large scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Power Electronics Materials and Bonded Interfaces - Reliability and Lifetime

High temperature operation of wide bandgap devices continue to be a challenge for the power electronics packages. Thermal performance and reliability are important factors that determine the viability of a bonded interface for operation at high temperatures. In this presentation, we present the technical approach and key results from the research on sintered silver, transient liquid phase alloy, and polymeric materials. A lifetime prediction model that incorporates the thermomechanical behavior of sintered silver at 200C was developed. The copper-aluminum transient alloy completed 350 thermal cycles from -40C to 200C and little increase in the defect level was observed. In addition to material research, we initiated a time-series analysis on the scanning acoustic microscope images of eutectic solder to explore statistical forecasting methods and machine learning techniques. Initial results that report the accuracy of a few different statistical models are presented.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Fluid Dynamics of Axial Turbomachinery: Blade- and Stage-Level Simulations and Models

The current generation of axial turbomachines is the culmination of decades of experience, and detailed understanding of the underlying flow physics has been a key factor for achieving high efficiency and reliability. Driven by advances in numerical methods and relentless growth in computing power, computational fluid dynamics has increasingly provided insights into the rich fluid dynamics involved and how it relates to loss generation. This article presents some of the complex flow phenomena occurring in bladed components of gas turbines and illustrates how simulations have contributed to their understanding and the challenges they pose for modeling. The interaction of key aerodynamic features with deterministic unsteadiness, caused by multiple blade rows, and stochastic unsteadiness, i.e., turbulence, is discussed. High-fidelity simulations of increasingly realistic configurations and models improved with help of machine learning promise to further grow turbomachinery performance and reliability and, thus, help fluid mechanics research have a greater industrial impact.

Mechanics↗

Learning to Optimize Variational Quantum Circuits to Solve Combinatorial Problems

Quantum computing is a computational paradigm with the potential to outperform classical methods for a variety of problems. Proposed recently, the Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) is considered as one of the leading candidates for demonstrating quantum advantage in the near term. QAOA is a variational hybrid quantum-classical algorithm for approximately solving combinatorial optimization problems. The quality of the solution obtained by QAOA for a given problem instance depends on the performance of the classical optimizer used to optimize the variational parameters. In this paper, we formulate the problem of finding optimal QAOA parameters as a learning task in which the knowledge gained from solving training instances can be leveraged to find high-quality solutions for unseen test instances. To this end, we develop two machine-learning-based approaches. Our first approach adopts a reinforcement learning (RL) framework to learn a policy network to optimize QAOA circuits. Our second approach adopts a kernel density estimation (KDE) technique to learn a generative model of optimal QAOA parameters. In both approaches, the training procedure is performed on small-sized problem instances that can be simulated on a classical computer; yet the learned RL policy and the generative model can be used to efficiently solve larger problems. Furthermore, extensive simulations using the IBM Qiskit Aer quantum circuit simulator demonstrate that our proposed RL- and KDE-based approaches reduce the optimality gap by factors up to 30.15 when compared with other commonly used off-the-shelf optimizers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analytics-at-scale of Sensor Data for Digital Monitoring in Nuclear Plants (3 rd Annual Report)

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This report primarily focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 ± 0.014, 0.0026 ± 0, and 0.063 ± 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure. This report summarizes the Fiscal Year 2021 research progress encompassing the (1) data cleaning and feature selection necessary for ML applications; (2) development of short-term forecasting models to predict future plant process parameters for both single and multiple time steps ahead; and (3) validation of the feature selection methods and short-term forecasting models given new data from different systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Expediting DECam Multimessenger Counterpart Searches with Convolutional Neural Networks

Searches for counterparts to multimessenger events with optical imagers use difference imaging to detect new transient sources. However, even with existing artifact-detection algorithms, this process simultaneously returns several classes of false positives: false detections from poor-quality image subtractions, false detections from low signal-to-noise images, and detections of preexisting variable sources. Currently, human visual inspection to remove the false positives is a central part of multimessenger follow-up observations, but when next generation gravitational wave and neutrino detectors come online and increase the rate of multimessenger events, the visual inspection process will be prohibitively expensive. We approach this problem with two convolutional neural networks operating on the difference imaging outputs. The first network focuses on removing false detections and demonstrates an accuracy of 92% on our data set. The second network focuses on sorting all real detections by the probability of being a transient source within a host galaxy and distinguishes between various classes of images that previously required additional human inspection. We find the number of images requiring human inspection will decrease by a factor of 1.5 using our approach alone and a factor of 3.6 using our approach in combination with existing algorithms, facilitating rapid multimessenger counterpart identification by the astronomical community.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Latent Representation Learning for Structural Characterization of Catalysts

Supervised machine learning-enabled mapping of the X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) spectra to local structural descriptors offers new methods for understanding the structure and function of working nanocatalysts. We briefly summarize a status of XANES analysis approaches by supervised machine learning methods. We present an example of an autoencoder-based, unsupervised machine learning approach for latent representation learning of XANES spectra. This new approach produces a lower-dimensional latent representation, which retains a spectrum–structure relationship that can be eventually mapped to physicochemical properties. Furthermore, the latent space of the autoencoder also provides a pathway to interpret the information content “hidden” in the X-ray absorption coefficient. Our approach (that we named latent space analysis of spectra, or LSAS) is demonstrated for the supported Pd nanoparticle catalyst studied during the formation of Pd hydride. By employing the low-dimensional representation of Pd K-edge XANES, the LSAS method was able to isolate the key factors responsible for the observed spectral changes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Machine-Learning-Based High-Resolution Earthquake Catalog Reveals How Complex Fault Structures Were Activated during the 2016–2017 Central Italy Sequence

The 2016–2017 central Italy seismic sequence occurred on an 80 km long normal-fault system. The sequence initiated with the Mw 6.0 Amatrice event on 24 August 2016, followed by the Mw 5.9 Visso event on 26 October and the Mw 6.5 Norcia event on 30 October. We analyze continuous data from a dense network of 139 seismic stations to build a high-precision catalog of ~900,000 earthquakes spanning a 1 yr period, based on arrival times derived using a deep-neural-network-based picker. Our catalog contains an order of magnitude more events than the catalog routinely produced by the local earthquake monitoring agency. Aftershock activity reveals the geometry of complex fault structures activated during the earthquake sequence and provides additional insights into the potential factors controlling the development of the largest events. Activated fault structures in the northern and southern regions appear complementary to faults activated during the 1997 Colfiorito and 2009 L’Aquila sequences, suggesting that earthquake triggering primarily occurs on critically stressed faults. Delineated major fault zones are relatively thick compared to estimated earthquake location uncertainties, and a large number of kilometer-long faults and diffuse seismicity were activated during the sequence. These properties might be related to fault age, roughness, and the complexity of inherited structures. The rich details resolvable in this catalog will facilitate continued investigation of this energetic and well-recorded earthquake sequence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mechanical and wear properties of aluminum coating prepared by cold spraying

In this study, aluminum (Al) powders were deposited onto Al substrates using cold spray to form a coating. The main objective is to investigate and compare the microstructure, mechanical and wear properties of Al coating to that of the Al substrate. The microstructure of the coating and substrate were observed using Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). Hardness was evaluated using the Vickers Hardness test and wear properties were investigated using a pin-on-disk wear test machine. The elemental composition of the coating and substrate was determined using Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX). Results showed that the friction coefficient and specific wear rate decreased while wear rate increased linearly with increasing load. It was found that the coating exhibit slightly better mechanical and wear properties compared to the substrate.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗