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DOE OSTI2022

Diffuse back-illumination temperature imaging (DBI-TI), a novel soot thermometry technique

To meet stringent emissions regulations on soot emissions, it is critical to further advance the fundamental understanding of in-cylinder soot formation and oxidation processes. Among several optical techniques for soot quantification, diffuse back-illumination extinction imaging (DBI-EI) has recently gained traction mainly due to its ability to compensate for beam steering, which if not addressed, can cause unacceptably high measurement uncertainty. Until now, DBI-EI has only been used to measure the amount of soot along the line of sight, and here, we extend the capabilities of a DBI-EI setup to also measure in-cylinder soot temperature. This proof of concept of diffuse back-illumination temperature imaging (DBI-TI) as a soot thermometry technique is presented by implementing DBI-TI in a single cylinder, heavy-duty, optical diesel engine to provide 2-D line-of-sight integrated soot temperature maps. The potential of DBI-TI to be an accurate thermometry technique for use in optical engines is analyzed. The achievable accuracy is due in part to simultaneous measurement of the soot extinction, which circumvents the uncertainty in dispersion coefficients that depend on the optical properties of soot and the wavelength of light utilized. Analysis shows that DBI-TI provides temperature estimates that are closer to the mass-averaged soot temperature when compared to other thermometry techniques that are more sensitive to soot temperature closer to the detector. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis and Monte Carlo (MC) simulations provide estimates of the temperature measurement errors associated with this technique. The MC simulations reveal that for the light intensities and optical densities encountered in these experiments, the accuracy of the DBI-TI technique is comparable or even better than other established optical thermometry techniques. Thus, DBI-TI promises to be an easily implementable extension to the existing DBI-EI technique, thereby extending its ability to provide comprehensive line-of-sight integrated information on soot.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sublimation and oxidation measurements of graphite and carbon black at high temperatures in a shock tube using absorption imaging and thermal emission

Surface mass loss rates due to sublimation and oxidation at temperatures of 3000–7000 K have been measured in a shock tube for graphite and carbon black (CB) particles. Diagnostics are presented for measuring surface mass loss rates by diffuse backlit illumination extinction imaging and thermal emission. Here, the surface mass loss rate is found by regression fitting extinction and emission signals with an independent spherical primary particle assumption. Measured graphite sublimation and oxidation rates are reported to be an order of magnitude greater than CB sublimation and oxidation rates. It is speculated that the difference between CB and graphite surface mass loss rates is largely due to the primary particle assumption of the presented technique which misrepresents the effective surface area of an aggregate particle where primary particles overlap and shield inner particles. Measured sublimation rates are compared to sublimation models in the literature, and it is seen graphite shows fair agreement with the models while CB underestimates, likely a result of the particle shielding affect not being considered in the sublimation model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computational diagnostics and characterization of combustion recession in diesel sprays

While low-temperature combustion (LTC) strategies have been found to mitigate nitrogen oxides and particulate matter emissions in diesel engines, studies have also associated LTC with an increase in unburnt hydrocarbons. With more recent studies on diesel after end-of-injection (AEOI), combustion recession is identified as a phenomenon where at near nozzle region, high-temperature ignition (HTI) combustion can propagate back to the nozzle tip consuming the unburnt hydrocarbons AEOI. Current literature has suggested that combustion recession is controlled by auto-ignition. However, high-fidelity simulations and detailed analysis of such a mechanism are missing. In this study, comprehensive Large Eddy Simulations of a reacting spray at “Spray A” conditions are performed, where detailed analysis of combustion recession concerning flame morphology and propagation modes are included. In particular, this study demonstrated for the first time that while combustion recession is mainly auto-ignition dominated (consistent with the literature), a cool flame was found to deflagrate towards the richer regions of the mixture, promoting mixing and increasing the mixture temperature. This leads to HTI kernels, which then grow and develop as deflagrative waves, therefore sustaining the combustion recession process. The study also detailed the extinction mechanism of combustion: the entrainment wave will overlean the near-nozzle mixtures, rendering it unable to support HTI, which leads to the extinction of the upstream flame AEOI in lower reactivity mixtures. Combustion recession is also observed to be contingent on the chemical and diffusion processes, even at low scalar dissipation rates. Finally, a new criterion for combustion recession based on chemical explosive mode is proposed and validated with previous combustion recession index to quantify the extent of HTI in near-nozzle mixtures AEOI. The newly developed metric combined with a previous experimentally-based metric can provide simple but valuable measurements of the degree and propensity of the upstream flame AEOI.

CEMA↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid combustion modeling approach for turbulent jet ignition in natural-gas pre-chamber spark-ignition engines at high EGR

Here, this study presented a hybrid modeling approach for simulating turbulent jet ignition and combustion processes in a natural-gas pre-chamber spark-ignition engine operating under exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) diluted conditions. In-depth analyses of experimental data and simulation results from previous work [Chinnathambi et al., ICEF2021-67836; Kim et al., Fuel 409: 137815, 2026] revealed two key findings: (i) the magnitude of pressure difference between the pre-chamber and main chamber ($∆P_{PC-MC}$) was positively correlated with the combustion duration from the moment of $∆P_{PC-MC}=0$ to the point of 5% mass fraction burned, with larger $∆P_{PC-MC}$ associated with longer duration; and (ii) the turbulent combustion regime in the main chamber transitioned from the broken reaction zone to the corrugated flamelet regime, with the Karlovitz number exceeding 100 immediately after turbulent hot jets were ejected from nozzles, coinciding with observed local extinction events. To accurately simulate the entire combustion process, a hybrid approach was developed under Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes framework, combining the G-equation model for pre-chamber combustion with the multi-zone well-stirred reactor approach and a turbulence-chemistry interaction (TCI) submodel for main chamber combustion. The TCI submodel accounted for the attenuation of reaction rates due to turbulent strain and modeled local extinction by suppressing reaction rates under certain flow and flame conditions. When applied to three EGR rate conditions toward the dilution limit, the hybrid modeling approach accurately reproduced experimental data in terms of cylinder pressure, apparent heat release rate, and the observed positive correlation, including the delayed onset of main chamber combustion—a feature not captured by existing combustion models.

computational fluid dynamics simulation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improving a Multilevel Turbulence Closure Model for a Shallow Lake in Comparison With Other 1-D Models

Lakes differ from lands in water availability, heat capacity, albedo, and roughness, which affect local surface-atmospheric interactions. This study modified a multilevel upper ocean model (UOM) for lake applications and evaluated its performance in Lake Taihu (China) with comprehensive measurements against three popular one-dimensional (1-D) lake models. These models were based on different concepts, including the self-similarity (FLake), the wind-driven eddy diffusion (LISSS), the k-ε turbulence closure (SIMSTRAT), and a simplified turbulence closure (UOM). The surface flux scheme in these models was unified to exclude the discrepancies in representing air-lake exchanges. All models in their default formulations presented obvious cold water temperature biases and largely underestimated the lake surface temperature (LST) diurnal range. For each model, these deficiencies were significantly reduced by incorporating new physics schemes or calibrated tunable parameters based on systematic sensitivity tests. The primary modifications for UOM included (1) a new scheme of decreased surface roughness lengths to better characterize the shallow lake, (2) a solar radiation penetration scheme with increased light extinction coefficient and surface absorption fraction to account for the high water turbidity, and (3) turbulent Prandtl number increased by a factor of 20 to reduce the turbulent vertical mixing. All other models were improved in these three aspects (roughness, extinction, and mixing) within their original formulations. Given these improvements, UOM showed superior performance to other models in capturing LST diurnal cycle and daily to seasonal variations, as well as summer-autumn vertical stratification changes. The new UOM is well suited for application in shallow lakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Exploring the Constraints on Simulated Aerosol Sources and Transport across the North Atlantic with Island-Based Sun Photometers

Atmospheric aerosol over the North Atlantic Ocean impact regional clouds and climate. In this work, we use a set of sun photometer observations of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) located on the Graciosa and Cape Verde islands, along with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to investigate the sources of these aerosol and their transport over the North Atlantic Ocean. At both locations, the largest simulated contributor to aerosol extinction is the local source of sea-salt aerosol. In addition to this large source, we find that signatures consistent with long-range transport of anthropogenic, biomass burning, and dust emissions are apparent throughout the year at both locations. Model simulations suggest that this signal of long-range transport in AOD is more apparent at higher elevation locations; the influence of anthropogenic and biomass burning aerosol extinction is particularly pronounced at the height of Pico Mountain, near the Graciosa Island site. Using a machine learning approach, we further show that simulated observations at these three sites (near Graciosa, Pico Mountain, and Cape Verde) can be used to predict the simulated background aerosol imported into cities on the European mainland, particularly during the local winter months, highlighting the utility of background AOD monitoring for understanding downwind air quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Intercomparison of Thermal Regime Algorithms in 1-D Lake Models

Lakes are an important component of the global weather and climate system, but the modeling of their thermal regimes has shown large uncertainties due to the highly diverse lake properties and model configurations. Here we evaluate the algorithms of four key lake thermal processes including turbulent heat fluxes, wind-driven mixing, light extinction, and snow density, using a highly diverse lake dataset provided by the Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) 2a lake sector. Algorithm codes are configured and run separately within the same parent model to rule out any interference from factors apart from the algorithms examined. Evaluations are based on both simulation accuracy and recalibration complexity for application to global lakes. For turbulent heat fluxes, the non-Monin-Obukhov similarity (MOS) based, more simplified algorithms perform better in predicting lake epilimnion temperatures and achieve high convergence in the values of the calibrated parameters. For wind-driven mixing, a two-algorithm strategy considering lake shape and season is suggested with the regular mixing algorithm used for spring and earlier summer and the mixing-enhanced algorithm for summer steady stratification and fall overturn periods. There are no evident differences in the simulated thermocline depths using different light extinction algorithms or the observation. Finally, for lake ice phenology, a constant snow density at around 110 kg m-3 is found to be sufficient for most northern lakes while the Arctic lakes require a higher value. Our study provides highly practical guides for improving 1-D lake models and feasible parameterization strategies to better simulate global lake thermal regimes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Influence of Dust-Smoke Mixtures on Boundary Layer Processes and Nocturnal Warming in the Sahel

Using a single column model with ground-based, aircraft, and satellite data sets we assess the combined role of smoke and dust aerosols, land degradation/aridization (LDA), and their impact on the planetary boundary layer (PBL) in influencing near-surface air temperature over the Sahel. Our study is unique because it assesses the combined role of smoke and dust aerosols on PBL evolution and near-surface air temperatures during both day and nighttime. More importantly, using a theoretical framework, we provide a careful explanation of the geophysical processes responsible for the changes in PBL and near-surface air temperature. Our results indicate that during northern hemisphere winter months, dust, and smoke over Sahel radiatively combine to impact the PBL. We show that aerosol mixtures dominated by dust modify PBL height in a manner that minimizes/maximizes surface layer cooling/warming at times when daytime maximum/nocturnal minimum temperatures occur. Furthermore, we find that increasing smoke contribution to total column aerosol optical extinction counteracts nighttime warming through daytime cooling. When smoke constitutes half or more of to the total column aerosol optical extinction, the ratio of longwave to shortwave radiative forcing is less than 10%, and nighttime cooling ensues. Minimum temperature is most sensitive to changes in mid-visible aerosol optical depth (AOD) values <1 and doubling of dust AOD within this range during the 1950–1980 Sahelian LDA event is estimated to have a nocturnal warming potential of 0.6°C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution LiDAR Observations for Coupled Effects of Dry-Air Entrainment and Haze-Cloud Interactions on Cloud Vertical Structure

This study demonstrates the high-resolution profiling of cloud microphysics in a laboratory chamber using Time-Correlated Single Photon Counting (TCSPC) LiDAR. We present a novel retrieval method to derive vertical extinction (𝜎) profiles, constrained by in situ measurements, to diagnose responses to dry-air entrainment. In clean clouds, the LiDAR signals and retrieved 𝜎 remain relatively uniform, with entrainment effects confined to the upper layer. In contrast, polluted clouds exhibit strong vertical variability and a transition to a water-vapor-limited state. Entrainment significantly enhances the haze number concentration (𝑁ℎ), particularly near the bottom, creating highly height-dependent extinction profiles for polluted clouds. Our results highlight the capability of high-resolution LiDAR in capturing fine-scale vertical inhomogeneities. This approach provides a robust framework for quantifying how aerosol loading modulates entrainment sensitivity, offering new insights into the transition between buffered and water-vapor-limited regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Seasonal calibration of the end-cretaceous Chicxulub impact event

The end-Cretaceous Chicxulub impact triggered Earth’s last mass-extinction, extinguishing ~ 75% of species diversity and facilitating a global ecological shift to mammal-dominated biomes. Temporal details of the impact event on a fine scale (hour-to-day), important to understanding the early trajectory of mass-extinction, have largely eluded previous studies. This study employs histological and histo-isotopic analyses of fossil fish that were coeval with a unique impact-triggered mass-death assemblage from the Cretaceous-Paleogene (KPg) boundary in North Dakota (USA). Patterns of growth history, including periodicity of δ 18 O and δ 13 C and growth band morphology, plus corroborating data from fish ontogeny and seasonal insect behavior, reveal that the impact occurred during boreal Spring/Summer, shortly after the spawning season for fish and most continental taxa. The severity and taxonomic symmetry of response to global natural hazards are influenced by the season during which they occur, suggesting that post-impact perturbations could have exerted a selective force that was exacerbated by seasonal timing. Data from this study can also provide vital hindsight into patterns of extant biotic response to global-scale hazards that are relevant to both current and future biomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Resonance plasmonic coupling: selective enhancement of band edge emission over trap state emission of CdSe quantum dots

The photoluminescence properties of quantum dots (QDs) are often enhanced by eliminating surface trap states through chemical methods. Alternatively, a physical approach is presented here for improving photoluminescence purity in QDs by employing frequency-specific plasmon resonance coupling. Emitter-bound plasmonic hybrids are designed by electrostatically binding negatively charged QDs in water to positively charged gold nanoparticles having a thin polymer coating. Herein, two types of QDs are used: (i) bare CdSe, which exhibits both band edge and trap state emission, and (ii) CdSe overcoated with a ZnS shell (CdSe/ZnS) devoid of trap state emission. Tuning the extinction spectrum of the plasmonic system to match the band edge emission of CdSe enables the selective enhancement of band edge emission over trap state emission. Excellent match in the extinction spectrum of the gold nanoparticle with both, experimentally calculated photoluminescence enhancement factor and theoretically calculated radiative rate enhancement signifies the role of frequency-specific plasmon resonance coupling. Plasmon-coupled photoluminescence of CdSe/ZnS is further investigated by varying the number density of emitter on the surface of plasmonic nanoparticle. An enhancement in the photoluminescence is observed at a lower emitter density of CdSe/ZnS and the photoluminescence enhancement factor closely follows the plasmon resonance. However, photoluminescence quenching occurs with an increase in CdSe/ZnS due to plasmon-assisted nonradiative energy transfer between nearby QDs, as indicated by a red shift in the PL maximum. These studies establish that resonance plasmonic coupling is a convenient physical strategy for tuning the intrinsic photoluminescence properties of QDs for various optoelectronic applications.

Paul, Livin↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimization and quantification of silver( II ) for mediated electrochemical oxidation applications

Mediated electrochemical oxidation (MEO) is a low-temperature, low-pressure, aqueous mineralization process used to treat organic waste. A powerful metal oxidant is used as a mediator in an acidic solution. Although Ce and Co are thoroughly studied mediators, Ag is a preferred choice because of the higher efficiency rates of mineralization observed with this system. Importantly, the quantification methodology and spectroscopic characteristics of the Ag(II) ion must be obtained. In this study, we determined molar extinction coefficients of the primary absorption band associated with the Ag(II) ion in 2–9 M HNO 3 solution. The optimization of Ag(II) electrooxidation was also determined by altering parameters such as HNO 3 concentration, mediator concentration, and temperature. The optimization studies and extinction coefficient data provide parameters for implementation of Ag as a suitable mediator for MEO processing of organic waste.

Schrage, Briana R. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

DOE OSTI2022

SDSS-IV MaStar: Stellar parameter determination with continuum-supplemented full-spectrum fitting

We present a stellar parameter catalog built to accompany the MaStar Stellar Library, which is a comprehensive collection of empirical, medium-resolution stellar spectra. We constructed this parameter catalog by using a multicomponent χ 2 fitting approach to match MaStar spectra to models generated by interpolating the ATLAS9-based BOSZ model spectra. The total χ 2 for a given model is defined as the sum of components constructed to characterize narrow-band features of observed spectra (e.g., absorption lines) and the broadband continuum shape separately. Extinction and systematics due to flux calibration were taken into account in the fitting. The χ 2 distribution for a given region of model space was sampled using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, the data from which were then used to extract atmospheric parameter estimates (T eff , log g, [Fe/H], and [α/Fe]), their corresponding uncertainties, and direct extinction measurements. Two methods were used to extract parameters and uncertainties: one that accepts the MCMC’s prescribed minimum-χ 2 result, and one that uses Bayesian inference to compute a likelihood-weighted mean from the χ 2 distribution sampled by the MCMC. Results were evaluated for internal consistency using repeat observations where available and by comparing them with external data sets (e.g., APOGEE-2 and Gaia DR2). Our spectral-fitting exercise reveals possible deficiencies in current theoretical model spectra, illustrating the potential power of MaStar spectra for helping to improve the models. This paper represents an update to the parameters that were originally presented with SDSS-IV DR17. The MaStar parameter catalog containing our BestFit results is available on the SDSS-IV DR17 website as part of version 2 of the MaStar stellar parameter value-added catalog.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

An investigation of the star-forming main sequence considering the nebular continuum emission at low- z

Galaxy evolution has been studied by interpreting the spectral energy distribution of galaxies using spectral synthesis codes. This method has been crucial in discovering different pillars of modern galaxy evolution theories. However, this analysis was mostly carried out using spectral synthesis codes that are purely stellar, that is, they assume that the nebular contribution to the total continuum is negligible. The code FADO is the first publicly available population spectral synthesis tool that treats the contribution from ionised gas to the observed emission self-consistently. This is expected to have a particularly strong effect in star-forming (SF) galaxies. We study the impact of the nebular contribution on the determination of the star formation rate (SFR), stellar mass, and consequent effect on the star-forming main sequence (SFMS) at low redshift. We applied FADO to the spectral database of the SDSS to derive the physical properties of galaxies. As a comparison, we used the data in the MPA-JHU catalogue, which contains the properties of SDSS galaxies derived without the nebular contribution. We selected a sample of SF galaxies with Hα and Hβ flux measurements, and we corrected the fluxes for the nebular extinction through the Balmer decrement. We then calculated the Hα luminosity to estimate the SFR. Then, by combining the stellar mass and SFR estimates from FADO and MPA-JHU, the SFMS was obtained. The Hα flux estimates are similar between FADO and MPA-JHU. Because the Hα flux was used as tracer of the SFR, FADO and MPA-JHU agree in their SFR. The stellar mass estimates are slightly higher for FADO than for MPA-JHU on average. However, considering the uncertainties, the differences are negligible. With similar SFR and stellar mass estimates, the derived SFMS is also similar between FADO and MPA-JHU. Our results show that for SDSS normal SF galaxies, the additional modelling of the nebular contribution does not affect the retrieved fluxes and consequentially also does not influence SFR estimators based on the extinction-corrected Hα luminosity. For the stellar masses, the results point to the same conclusion. These results are a consequence of the fact that the vast majority of normal SF galaxies in the SDSS have a low nebular contribution. However, the obtained agreement might only hold for local SF galaxies, but higher-redshift galaxies might show different physical properties when FADO is used. This would then be an effect of the expected increased nebular contribution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

StarHorse results for spectroscopic surveys and Gaia DR3: Chrono-chemical populations in the solar vicinity, the genuine thick disk, and young alpha-rich stars

The Gaia mission has provided an invaluable wealth of astrometric data for more than a billion stars in our Galaxy. The synergy between Gaia astrometry, photometry, and spectroscopic surveys gives us comprehensive information about the Milky Way. Using the Bayesian isochrone-fitting code StarHorse, we derive distances and extinctions for more than 10 million unique stars listed in both Gaia Data Release 3 and public spectroscopic surveys: 557 559 in GALAH+ DR3, 4 531 028 in LAMOST DR7 LRS, 347 535 in LAMOST DR7 MRS, 562 424 in APOGEE DR17, 471 490 in RAVE DR6, 249 991 in SDSS DR12 (optical spectra from BOSS and SEGUE), 67 562 in the Gaia-ESO DR5 survey, and 4 211 087 in the Gaia RVS part of the Gaia DR3 release. StarHorse can increase the precision of distance and extinction measurements where Gaia parallaxes alone would be uncertain. We used StarHorse for the first time to derive stellar ages for main-sequence turnoff and subgiant branch stars, around 2.5 million stars, with age uncertainties typically around 30%; the uncertainties drop to 15% for subgiant-branch-only stars, depending on the resolution of the survey. With the derived ages in hand, we investigated the chemical-age relations. In particular, the α and neutron-capture element ratios versus age in the solar neighbourhood show trends similar to previous works, validating our ages. We used the chemical abundances from local subgiant samples of GALAH DR3, APOGEE DR17, and LAMOST MRS DR7 to map groups with similar chemical compositions and StarHorse ages, using the dimensionality reduction technique t-SNE and the clustering algorithm HDBSCAN. We identify three distinct groups in all three samples, confirmed by their kinematic properties: the genuine chemical thick disk, the thin disk, and a considerable number of young alpha-rich stars (427) that are also a part of the delivered catalogues. We confirm that the genuine thick disk’s kinematics and age properties are radically different from those of the thin disk and compatible with high-redshift (z ≈ 2) star-forming disks with high dispersion velocities. We also find a few extra chemical populations in GALAH DR3 thanks to the availability of neutron-capture element information.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncovering surface plasmon optical resonances in nanohole arrays through interferometric photoemission electron microscopy

In this work, the role of surface plasmon polaritons (SPPs) in nanohole array optical extinction spectra is explored using a time-resolved technique capable of isolating the air/metal interfacial SPP contribution to the typical Fano profile in optical transmission curves. A pair of interferometrically locked broad-band femtosecond pulses is used to launch SPPs from lithographically patterned plasmonic nanohole arrays. SPPs launched in the co- and counter-propagating directions are probed using a third probe pulse in a photoemission electron microscope. Using this approach, we record interferometric SPP–SPP linear autocorrelations that selectively report on the resonances of SPPs launched from arrays of varying pitches and hole diameters. Aside from advancing an approach to selective SPP spectroscopy, we illustrate that resonant coupling in the counter-propagating direction may be exploited to control the spatial, temporal, and spectral characteristics of SPPs. For the counter-propagating direction, we show that tuning the array pitch near the fundamental plasmon resonance generates color-tuned (~770–820 nm), narrow bandwidth SPPs, and the bandwidth may be controlled by changing the ratio of pitch to hole diameter. The SPP resonances we recover through Fourier transforms of the interferometric autocorrelations shed light on the classical problem of Fano interference in nanohole array extinction spectra.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spectral features of colloidal solutions of elongated gold nanoparticles produced by laser ablation in aqueous solutions

The extinction spectra of colloidal solutions of gold nanoparticles produced by laser ablation in water and aqueous solutions of salts using two near-IR lasers with pulse durations of 200 ns and 1 ps are experimentally investigated. The extinction spectrum of the particles formed by ablation in aqueous solutions is characterised by enhanced optical density in the red and IR regions. This feature is due to the formation of elongated gold nanoparticles, as confirmed by transmission electron microscopy. The surface images of a gold target subjected to multipulse laser ablation exhibit micron and submicron structures. (nanophotonics)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting climate change impacts on poikilotherms using physiologically guided species abundance models

Poikilothermic animals comprise most species on Earth and are especially sensitive to changes in environmental temperatures. Species conservation in a changing climate relies upon predictions of species responses to future conditions, yet predicting species responses to climate change when temperatures exceed the bounds of observed data is fraught with challenges. We present a physiologically guided abundance (PGA) model that combines observations of species abundance and environmental conditions with laboratory-derived data on the physiological response of poikilotherms to temperature to predict species geographical distributions and abundance in response to climate change. The model incorporates uncertainty in laboratory-derived thermal response curves and provides estimates of thermal habitat suitability and extinction probability based on site-specific conditions. We show that temperature-driven changes in distributions, local extinction, and abundance of cold, cool, and warm-adapted species vary substantially when physiological information is incorporated. Notably, cold-adapted species were predicted by the PGA model to be extirpated in 61% of locations that they currently inhabit, while extirpation was never predicted by a correlative niche model. Failure to account for species-specific physiological constraints could lead to unrealistic predictions under a warming climate, including underestimates of local extirpation for cold-adapted species near the edges of their climate niche space and overoptimistic predictions of warm-adapted species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗