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NASA NTRS1992

Simulation and model reduction for the AFW program

The simulation methodology used in the Active Flexible Wing wind-tunnel test program is described. An overview of the aeroservoelastic modeling used in building the required batch and hot-bench simulations is presented. Successful hot-bench implementation required that the full mathematical model be significantly reduced while assuring that accuracy be maintained for all combinations of 10 inputs and 56 outputs. The reduction was accomplished by using a method based on internally balanced realizations and focussing on the linear, aeroelastic portion of the full mathematical model. The error-bound properties of the internally balanced realization significantly contribute to its utility in the model reduction process. The reduction method and the results achieved are described.

Buttrill, Carey↗

NASA NTRS1997

Automation for Air Traffic Control: The Rise of a New Discipline

The current debate over the concept of Free Flight has renewed interest in automated conflict detection and resolution in the enroute airspace. An essential requirement for effective conflict detection is accurate prediction of trajectories. Trajectory prediction is, however, an inexact process which accumulates errors that grow in proportion to the length of the prediction time interval. Using a model of prediction errors for the trajectory predictor incorporated in the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS), a computationally fast algorithm for computing conflict probability has been derived. Furthermore, a method of conflict resolution has been formulated that minimizes the average cost of resolution, when cost is defined as the increment in airline operating costs incurred in flying the resolution maneuver. The method optimizes the trade off between early resolution at lower maneuver costs but higher prediction error on the one hand and late resolution with higher maneuver costs but lower prediction errors on the other. The method determines both the time to initiate the resolution maneuver as well as the characteristics of the resolution trajectory so as to minimize the cost of the resolution. Several computational examples relevant to the design of a conflict probe that can support user-preferred trajectories in the enroute airspace will be presented.

Erzberger, Heinz↗

NASA NTRS2019

Efficient On-Orbit Singularity-Free Geopotential Estimation

For vehicles in orbital cruise, either in orbit around a body or in a transfer orbit, gravity is the primary external force; therefore, the complexity of the geopotential model heavily influences the accuracy of the navigation state. As this type of spacecraft requires a highly accurate geopotential model and performs the computation numerous times a second, this calculation needs to be efficient. This calculation needs to include the first and second derivatives of the geopotential because navigation systems can require both the gravitational acceleration and gradient for inertial integration and state filtering. The most efficient method for calculating the geopotential, the forward column method, is discussed in detail, as well as a method to avoid the singularities that exist when using this method. This is shown to decrease the computation time of the geopotential compared to other popular methods. In addition, methods for first and second order propagation are discussed, which decrease the rate at which the full geopotential model needs to be calculated while maintaining the accuracy required of navigation systems. These estimation methods are shown to decrease the necessary computation of the gravity model by multiple orders of magnitude. This method decreases the computation time of the Exploration Upper Stage navigation system geopotential model by potentially an order of magnitude compared with the previous model without affecting the navigation error. A properly implemented geopotential model can have the accuracy of an 8 by 8 model while approaching the computational requirement as using only the J234 coefficients.

Amert, Joel↗

NASA NTRS2012

Effects of Tropospheric Spatio-Temporal Correlated Noise on the Analysis of Space Geodetic Data

The standard VLBI analysis models the distribution of measurement noise as Gaussian. Because the price of recording bits is steadily decreasing, thermal errors will soon no longer dominate. As a result, it is expected that troposphere and instrumentation/clock errors will increasingly become more dominant. Given that both of these errors have correlated spectra, properly modeling the error distributions will become increasingly relevant for optimal analysis. We discuss the advantages of modeling the correlations between tropospheric delays using a Kolmogorov spectrum and the frozen flow assumption pioneered by Treuhaft and Lanyi. We then apply these correlated noise spectra to the weighting of VLBI data analysis for two case studies: X/Ka-band global astrometry and Earth orientation. In both cases we see improved results when the analyses are weighted with correlated noise models vs. the standard uncorrelated models. The X/Ka astrometric scatter improved by approx.10% and the systematic Delta delta vs. delta slope decreased by approx. 50%. The TEMPO Earth orientation results improved by 17% in baseline transverse and 27% in baseline vertical.

instrumentation errors↗

NASA NTRS1987

Measurement-based reliability/performability models

Measurement-based models based on real error-data collected on a multiprocessor system are described. Model development from the raw error-data to the estimation of cumulative reward is also described. A workload/reliability model is developed based on low-level error and resource usage data collected on an IBM 3081 system during its normal operation in order to evaluate the resource usage/error/recovery process in a large mainframe system. Thus, both normal and erroneous behavior of the system are modeled. The results provide an understanding of the different types of errors and recovery processes. The measured data show that the holding times in key operational and error states are not simple exponentials and that a semi-Markov process is necessary to model the system behavior. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the significance of using a semi-Markov process, as opposed to a Markov process, to model the measured system.

Hsueh, Mei-Chen↗

NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of Aircraft Models and Integration Schemes for Interval Management in the TRACON

Reusable models of common elements for communication, computation, decision and control in air traffic management are necessary in order to enable simulation, analysis and assurance of emergent properties, such as safety and stability, for a given operational concept. Uncertainties due to faults, such as dropped messages, along with non-linearities and sensor noise are an integral part of these models, and impact emergent system behavior. Flight control algorithms designed using a linearized version of the flight mechanics will exhibit error due to model uncertainty, and may not be stable outside a neighborhood of the given point of linearization. Moreover, the communication mechanism by which the sensed state of an aircraft is fed back to a flight control system (such as an ADS-B message) impacts the overall system behavior; both due to sensor noise as well as dropped messages (vacant samples). Additionally simulation of the flight controller system can exhibit further numerical instability, due to selection of the integration scheme and approximations made in the flight dynamics. We examine the theoretical and numerical stability of a speed controller under the Euler and Runge-Kutta schemes of integration, for the Maintain phase for a Mid-Term (2035-2045) Interval Management (IM) Operational Concept for descent and landing operations. We model uncertainties in communication due to missed ADS-B messages by vacant samples in the integration schemes, and compare the emergent behavior of the system, in terms of stability, via the boundedness of the final system state. Any bound on the errors incurred by these uncertainties will play an essential part in a composable assurance argument required for real-time, flight-deck guidance and control systems,. Thus, we believe that the creation of reusable models, which possess property guarantees, such as safety and stability, is an innovative and essential requirement to assessing the emergent properties of novel airspace concepts of operation.

Neogi, Natasha↗

NASA NTRS2014

James Webb Space Telescope Initial Mid-Course Correction Monte Carlo Implementation using Task Parallelism

The James Webb Space Telescope will be launched into a highly elliptical orbit that does not possess sufficient energy to achieve a proper Sun-Earth/Moon L2 libration point orbit. Three mid-course correction (MCC) maneuvers are planned to rectify the energy deficit: MCC-1a, MCC-1b, and MCC-2. To validate the propellant budget and trajectory design methods, a set of Monte Carlo analyses that incorporate MCC maneuver modeling and execution are employed. The first analysis focuses on the effects of launch vehicle injection errors on the magnitude of MCC-1a. The second on the spread of potential V based on the performance of the propulsion system as applied to all three MCC maneuvers. The final highlights the slight, but notable, contribution of the attitude thrusters during each MCC maneuver. Given the possible variations in these three scenarios, the trajectory design methods are determined to be robust to errors in the modeling of the flight system.

James Webb Space Telescope↗

NASA NTRS2014

James Webb Space Telescope Initial Mid-Course Correction Monte Carlo Implementation using Task Parallelism

The James Webb Space Telescope will be launched into a highly elliptical orbit that does not possess sufficient energy to achieve a proper Sun-Earth L2 libration point orbit. Three mid-course correction (MCC) maneuvers are planned to rectify the energy deficit: MCC-1a, MCC-1b, and MCC-2. To validate the propellant budget and trajectory design methods, a set of Monte Carlo analyses that incorporate MCC maneuver modeling and execution are employed. The first analysis focuses on the effects of launch vehicle injection errors on the magnitude of MCC-1a. The second on the spread of potential V based on the performance of the propulsion system as applied to all three MCC maneuvers. The final highlights the slight, but notable, contribution of the attitude thrusters during each MCC maneuver. Given the possible variations in these three scenarios, the trajectory design methods are determined to be robust to errors in the modeling of the flight system.

Libration Point Orbit↗

NASA NTRS1976

High-latitude truncation errors of box-type primitive equation models

The 'box-type' finite-difference method includes a weighted average of the pressure gradient with weights proportional to the surface of the grid walls. It is shown that this averaging introduces first-order truncation errors near the poles. An example is shown in which the relative error is of zero order and the scheme produces large distortions in the solution at high latitudes.

Kalnay-Rivas, E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Enhanced orbit determination filter: Inclusion of ground system errors as filter parameters

The theoretical aspects of an orbit determination filter that incorporates ground-system error sources as model parameters for use in interplanetary navigation are presented in this article. This filter, which is derived from sequential filtering theory, allows a systematic treatment of errors in calibrations of transmission media, station locations, and earth orientation models associated with ground-based radio metric data, in addition to the modeling of the spacecraft dynamics. The discussion includes a mathematical description of the filter and an analytical comparison of its characteristics with more traditional filtering techniques used in this application. The analysis in this article shows that this filter has the potential to generate navigation products of substantially greater accuracy than more traditional filtering procedures.

Masters, W. C.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Gravity model improvement using GEOS 3 /GEM 9 and 10/

Although errors in previous gravity models have produced large uncertainties in the orbital position of GEOS 3, significant improvement has been obtained with new geopotential solutions, Goddard Earth Model (GEM) 9 and 10. The GEM 9 and 10 solutions for the potential coefficients and station coordinates are presented along with a discussion of the new techniques employed. Also presented and discussed are solutions for three fundamental geodetic reference parameters, viz. the mean radius of the earth, the gravitational constant, and mean equatorial gravity. Evaluation of the gravity field is examined together with evaluation of GEM 9 and 10 for orbit determination accuracy. The major objectives of GEM 9 and 10 are achieved. GEOS 3 orbital accuracies from these models are about 1 m in their radial components for 5-day arc lengths. Both models yield significantly improved results over GEM solutions when compared to surface gravimetry, Skylab and GEOS 3 altimetry, and highly accurate BE-C (Beacon Explorer-C) laser ranges. The new values of the parameters discussed are given.

Lerch, F. J.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Some aerodynamic considerations related to wind tunnel model surface definition

The aerodynamic considerations related to model surface definition are examined with particular emphasis in areas of fabrication tolerances, model surface finish, and orifice induced pressure errors. The effect of model surface roughness texture on skin friction is also discussed. It is shown that at a given Reynolds number, any roughness will produce no skin friction penalty.

Gloss, B. B.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Visual tracking in stereo

A method is described for visual object tracking by a computer vision system using TV cameras and special low-level image processing hardware. The tracker maintains an internal model of the location, orientation, and velocity of the object in three-dimensional space. This model is used to predict where features of the object will lie on the two-dimensional images produced by stereo TV cameras. The differences in the locations of features in the two-dimensional images as predicted by the internal model and as actually seen create an error signal in the two-dimensional representation. This is multiplied by a generalized inverse Jacobian matrix to deduce the error in the internal model. The procedure repeats to update the internal model of the object's location, orientation and velocity continuously.

Saund, E.↗

NASA NTRS1992

TOPEX orbit determination and gravity recovery using Global Positioning System data from repeat orbits

A covariance analysis is presented for satellite tracking and gravity recovery with a differential Global Positioning System-based technique to be demonstrated on TOPEX in the early 1990s. The technique employs data from an ensemble of repeat ground tracks to recover a unique satellite epoch state for each track and a set of invariant positional parameters common to all tracks. The positional parameters represent the effect of mismodeled gravitational field on the satellite orbit. At an altitude of 1336 km, where gravity modeling is the dominant systematic error, averaging of random error over many arcs and adjustment of the gravity model reduce the final satellite position error. The positional parameters can then be used to produce a refined global gravity model. The analysis indicates that errors ranging from 5 to 8 cm in TOPEX altitude and 0.05 to 0.2 mGal for the gravity field can be achieved, depending on the number of repeat arcs used.

Wu, Jiun-Tsong↗

NASA NTRS2004

Cirrus Clouds Optical, Microphysical and Radiative Properties Observed During Crystal-Face Experiment: I. A Radar-Lidar Retrieval System

A method of retrieving cloud microphysical properties using combined observations from both cloud radar and lidar is introduced. This retrieval makes use of an improvement to the traditional optimal estimation retrieval method, whereby a series of corrections are applied to the state vector during the search for an iterative solution. This allows faster convergence to a solution and is less processor intensive. The method is first applied to a synthetic cloud t o demonstrate its validity, and it is shown that the retrieval reliably reproduces vertical profiles of ice water content. The retrieval method is then applied to radar and lidar observations from the CRYSTAL-FACE experiment, and vertical profiles of ice crystal diameter, number concentration, and ice water content are retrieved for a cirrus cloud layers observed one day of that experiment. The validity of the relationship between visible extinction coefficient and radar reflectivity was examined. While synthetic tests showed such a functional relationship, the measured data only partially supported such a conclusion. This is due to errors in the forward model (as explained above) as well as errors in the data sets, including possible mismatch between lidar and radar profiles or errors in the optical depth. Empirical relationships between number concentrations and mean particle diameter were also examined. The results indicate that a distinct and robust relationship exists between these retrieved quantities and it is argued that such a relationship is more than an artifact of the retrieval process offering insight into the nature of the microphysical processes taking place in cirrus.

Mitrescu, C.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Topex orbit determination and gravity recovery using GPS data from repeat orbits

A covariance analysis is presented for a differential GPS-based technique for satellite tracking and gravity recovery to be demonstrated on Topex in the early 1990's. The technique employs data from an ensemble of repeat ground tracks to recover a unique satellite epoch state for each track and a set of invariant local gravity parameters common to all tracks. For satellites above about 800 km altitude, where gravity modeling is the dominant systematic error, averaging of random error over many arcs and adjustment of the gravity model reduces the final satellite position error. The local gravity parameters can then be used to produce a refined global gravity model. The analysis indicates that errors ranging from 5 to 8 cm in Topex altitude and 0.05 to 0.2 mgal for the gravity field can be achieved, depending on the number of repeat arcs used.

Wu, Jiun-Tsong↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Generalized Approach to Aircraft Trajectory Prediction via Supervised Deep Learning

As research advances diverse forms and missions of aircraft, the National Airspace System (NAS) will become increasingly crowded, limiting current communications resources to accommodate aviation operations. Ongoing research proposes a paradigm of airspace communications, such that resources are autonomously and dynamically allocated via intelligent agents; this allocation requires accurate representations of the NAS, including the predicted positions of aircraft. State-of-the-art research emphasizes the importance of a hybrid-recurrent framework for trajectory prediction and compares the impact of commonly considered weather data on prediction accuracy. However, current research has been limited in its scope of efforts, frequently utilizing a unique flight route, architecture, set of weather data, and date range. This article considers the challenges of generalizing hybrid-recurrent predictive models for flight trajectories. Results illustrate an increase in error variance when identical models are trained over a generalized set of flights; this may be mitigated with careful tuning of hyperparameters, both in the network structure and optimization algorithms. Even so, an irreducible vertical error was identified, resulting from the complex takeoff and landing procedures which can not be correlated to functions of weather or additional assumptions of aircraft behavior. Finally, the use of a test route indicates that generalized models still do not possess sufficient knowledge for general aircraft predictions, with mean error increases ranging from 70-500%. These results illustrate the need for continued efforts on improving model versatility, as well as potential limitations for spectrum allocation near airports and other centers.

Nathan Schimpf↗

NASA NTRS1972

Tracking-station coordinates from Geos 1 and Geos 2 optical flash data.

Center-of-mass coordinates for 28 NASA MOTS and SAO Baker-Nunn camera sites have been obtained from optical flash data from Geos 1 (1965 89A) and Geos 2 (1968 002A). More than 25,000 observations in about 100 two-day arcs were used in dynamical solutions (SAO 1969 AGU gravity model). Comparison of results with local survey solutions and with solutions from deep-space vehicle tracking suggests accuracy of about 2 meters in longitude and height and 5 meters in latitude. The relatively larger error in latitude arose from propagation of gravity-model error largely along the track of these high-inclination satellites. The results have also been compared with the solutions of the SAO 1969 standard earth for station coordinates on the North American datum. The solution obtained in the present work is much closer to the survey results in chord length between stations.

Marsh, J. G.↗