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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Establishment of computerized numerical databases on thermophysical and other properties of molten as well as solid materials and data evaluation and validation for generating recommended reliable reference data

The Center for Information and Numerical Data Analysis and Synthesis, (CINDAS), measures and maintains databases on thermophysical, thermoradiative, mechanical, optical, electronic, ablation, and physical properties of materials. Emphasis is on aerospace structural materials especially composites and on infrared detector/sensor materials. Within CINDAS, the Department of Defense sponsors at Purdue several centers: the High Temperature Material Information Analysis Center (HTMIAC), the Ceramics Information Analysis Center (CIAC) and the Metals Information Analysis Center (MIAC). The responsibilities of CINDAS are extremely broad encompassing basic and applied research, measurement of the properties of thin wires and thin foils as well as bulk materials, acquisition and search of world-wide literature, critical evaluation of data, generation of estimated values to fill data voids, investigation of constitutive, structural, processing, environmental, and rapid heating and loading effects, and dissemination of data. Liquids, gases, molten materials and solids are all considered. The responsibility of maintaining widely used databases includes data evaluation, analysis, correlation, and synthesis. Material property data recorded on the literature are often conflicting, diverging, and subject to large uncertainties. It is admittedly difficult to accurately measure materials properties. Systematic and random errors both enter. Some errors result from lack of characterization of the material itself (impurity effects). In some cases assumed boundary conditions corresponding to a theoretical model are not obtained in the experiments. Stray heat flows and losses must be accounted for. Some experimental methods are inappropriate and in other cases appropriate methods are carried out with poor technique. Conflicts in data may be resolved by curve fitting of the data to theoretical or empirical models or correlation in terms of various affecting parameters. Reasons (e.g. phase transitions) must be found for unusual dependence or any anomaly. Such critical evaluation involves knowledge of theory, experience in measurement, familiarity with metallurgy (microstructural behavior) and not inconsiderable judgment. An examination of typical data compiled and analyzed by CINDAS shows that the thermal conductivity of a material reported in the literature may vary by a factor of two of more; the range of reported values increases as temperature increases reflecting the difficulty of high temperature measurements. Often only estimates of melt behavior are available, despite the importance of melt properties in modeling, welding, or other solidification processes. There may be only a few measurements available for properties such as kinematic viscosity, even for widely used materials such as stainless steel. In the face of such a paucity of existing data and in a national environment where too few new data are being generated it is nonetheless the responsibility of CINDAS to select and disseminate recommended values of a wide variety of thermophysical properties.

Ho, C. Y.↗

Kinetics and Thermochemistry of the Br((sup 2)P3/2) + NO2 Association Reaction

A laser flash photolysis-resonance fluorescence technique has been employed to study the kinetics of the Br((sup 2)P3/2) + NO2 association reaction as a function of temperature (259-432 K) pressure (12.5 - 700 Torr), and buffer gas identity (He, Ar, H2, N2, CO2, CF4, SF6). The reaction is found to be in the falloff regime between third and second order over the entire range of conditions investigated. At temperatures below 350 K, the association reaction is found to be irreversible on the time scale of the experiment (approximately 30 ms). At higher temperatures reversible addition is observed, allowing equilibrium constants for BrNO2 formation and dissociation to be determined. Second- and third-law analyses of the equilibrium data are in only fair agreement and lead to the following thermochemical parameters for the association reaction: Delta-H(298) = 19.6 +/- 1.7 kcal/mol, Delta-H(0) = -18.6 +/- 2.0 kcal/mol, Delta-S(298) = 29.3 +/- 4.2 cal/mol/K, Delta-H(sub f)(sub 298)(BrNO2) = 17.0 +/-1.8 kcal/mol(uncertainties are 2 sigma estimates of absolute accuracy). The value for Delta-H(0) determined in this study has been employed to calculate k(sub 0)(sup SC), the low-pressure third-order rate coefficient in the strong collision limit, by using the method of Troe; calculated values of k(sub 0)(sup SC) are inconsistent with experimental results unless Delta-H(0) is assigned a value near the lower limit derived from analysis of the high-temperature approach to equilibrium data, i.e. delta-H(0) approximately equals -16.6 kcal/mol. A potential source of systematic error in the calculation of both k(sub 0)(sup SC) and the absolute entropy of BrNO2 results from the complete lack of knowledge of the energies and degeneracies of the electronic states of BrNO3. The procedure developed by Troe and co-workers has been employed to extrapolate experimental falloff curves to the low- and high-pressure limits. Derived values for k(sub 0)(M,298K) in units of 10(exp -31) cm(exp 6)/sq molecule/s range from 2.75 for M = He to 6.54 for M = CO2; 2 sigma uncertainties are estimated to be +/- 20%. Values for k(sub 0)(N2,T) in units of 10(exp -31) cm(exp 6)/sq molecule/s are 5.73 at 259 K, 4.61 at 298 K, and 3.21 at 346 K; the observed temperature dependence for k(sub 0)(N2,T) is consistent with the theoretical temperature dependence for Beta(sub c)k(sub 0)(sup SC). Values for k(sub infinity)(T) in units of 10(exp -11) cu cm/molecule/s are 2.86 at 259 K, 3.22 at 298 K, and 3.73 at 346 K; 2 sigma uncertainties are estimated to be a factor of 2. Approximate falloff parameters in a convenient format for atmospheric modeling are also derived.

Kreutter, K. D.↗

Estimation of trends

The application of statistical methods to recorded ozone measurements. The effects of a long term depletion of ozone at magnitudes predicted by the NAS is harmful to most forms of life. Empirical prewhitening filters the derivation of which is independent of the underlying physical mechanisms were analyzed. Statistical analysis performs a checks and balances effort. Time series filters variations into systematic and random parts, errors are uncorrelated, and significant phase lag dependencies are identified. The use of time series modeling to enhance the capability of detecting trends is discussed.

Source record↗

A computer program for determining the electrophoretic mobility of cells in a rectangular chamber during asymmetric electroosmotic flow

In the field of cell electrophoresis, computer programs have been used for the estimation of zeta potential and surface charge density of specific charged chemical species from electrophoretic mobility data. The union of computer and microscope cell electrophoresis in the laboratory has yielded several satisfying results. The method organizes and error checks these data and stores them on permanent file for future reference or reanalysis. This computer analysis, accomplished in two steps by two main programs and a major subroutine, provides a quick, useful and realistic presentation of mobility data in histogram form, and is appropriate for any microelectrophoretic work using rectangular chambers. Computer program 1 is the first step of two in the analysis of mobility data. Program 2 consists of the main program, POLY2, which fits a least squares parabola to the apparent mobility data generated by Program 1, and the subroutine EXTRA which determines actual cell mobilities using the regression curve equation.

Source record↗

Geodesy by radio interferometry - Evidence for contemporary plate motion

Analysis of 211 very long baseline interferometry observing sessions carried out between November 1979 and August 1984 has yielded estimates of the distances between various radio telescopes located in North America and Europe. The average rate of change of the distances between four radio telescopes in North America (Haystack Observatory, Massachusetts; Westford Radio Telescope, Massachusetts; George R. Agassiz Station, Texas; and Owens Valley Radio Observatory, California) and one in Europe (Onsala Space Observatory, Sweden) obtained from the analysis of these data is 19 + or 10 mm/yr, where the (68 percent confidence interval) standard deviation is for the estimate of the rate of change of the Haystack-Onsala baseline length, the one determined most accurately from these data. This estimate of the standard deviation is dominated by the effects of correlated systematic errors due mostly to errors in the model used for the atmospheric delay which introduces errors in each baseline length estimate of 40 mm standard deviation and 60 days correlation time. (By contrast the statistical standard deviation is only 2 mm/yr). The estimated geologic rates of change of these baseline lengths, averaged over 10 to the 6th years, are 15 to 17 + or - 3 mm/yr for the various North American sites to Ondala.

Herring, T. A.↗

Estimation of blade airloads from rotor blade bending moments

A method is developed to estimate the blade normal airloads by using measured flap bending moments; that is, the rotor blade is used as a force balance. The blade's rotation is calculated in vacuum modes and the airloads are then expressed as an algebraic sum of the mode shapes, modal amplitudes, mass distribution, and frequency properties. The modal amplitudes are identified from the blade bending moments using the Strain Pattern Analysis Method. The application of the method is examined using simulated flap bending moment data that have been calculated for measured airloads for a full-scale rotor in a wind tunnel. The estimated airloads are compared with the wind tunnel measurements. The effects of the number of measurements, the number of modes, and errors in the measurements and the blade properties are examined, and the method is shown to be robust.

Bousman, William G.↗

Asymptotic boundary conditions for dissipative waves: General theory

An outstanding issue in the computational analysis of time dependent problems is the imposition of appropriate radiation boundary conditions at artificial boundaries. Accurate conditions are developed which are based on the asymptotic analysis of wave propagation over long ranges. Employing the method of steepest descents, dominant wave groups are identified and simple approximations to the dispersion relation are considered in order to derive local boundary operators. The existence of a small number of dominant wave groups may be expected for systems with dissipation. Estimates of the error as a function of domain size are derived under general hypotheses, leading to convergence results. Some practical aspects of the numerical construction of the asymptotic boundary operators are also discussed.

Hagstrom, Thomas↗

Asymptotic boundary conditions for dissipative waves - General theory

An outstanding issue in computational analysis of time dependent problems is the imposition of appropriate radiation boundary conditions at artificial boundaries. Accurate conditions are developed which are based on the asymptotic analysis of wave propagation over long ranges. Employing the method of steepest descents, dominant wave groups are identified and simple approximations to the dispersion relation are considered in order to derive local boundary operators. The existence of a small number of dominant wave groups may be expected for systems with dissipation. Estimates of the error as a function of domain size are derived under general hypotheses, leading to convergence results. Some practical aspects of the numerical construction of the asymptotic boundary operators are also discussed.

Hagstrom, Thomas↗

Ozone vertical distribution retrieval from ground-based high resolution infrared solar spectra

A practical procedure for the retrieval of ozone vertical profiles from ground-based high resolution Fourier transform infrared solar spectra has been developed. The analysis is based on a multilayer line-by-line forward model and a semi-empirical version of the optimal estimation inversion method of Rodgers. The 1002.6-1003.2 cm(exp -1) spectral interval has been selected for the analysis on the basis of synthetic spectrum calculations. This interval contains numerous ozone lines covering a range of intensities and providing retrieval sensitivity from ground level to about 35 km. Characterization of the method and an error analysis have been performed. For a spectral resolution of 0.05-0.01 cm(exp -1) and a signal-to-noise ratio greater than or equal to 100 the retrieval is stable with a vertical resolution of approximately 5 km attainable near the surface degrading to approximately 10 km in the stratosphere. Synthetic spectra studies show that the a priori profile and weak constraints selected for the retrievals introduce no significant biases for a wide range of ozone profiles.

Pougatchev, N. S.↗

Global Distortion of GPS Networks Associated with Satellite Antenna Model Errors

Recent studies of the GPS satellite phase center offsets (PCOs) suggest that these have been in error by approx.1 m. Previous studies had shown that PCO errors are absorbed mainly by parameters representing satellite clock and the radial components of site position. On the basis of the assumption that the radial errors are equal, PCO errors will therefore introduce an error in network scale. However, PCO errors also introduce distortions, or apparent deformations, within the network, primarily in the radial (vertical) component of site position that cannot be corrected via a Helmert transformation. Using numerical simulations to quantify the effects of PC0 errors, we found that these PCO errors lead to a vertical network distortion of 6-12 mm per meter of PCO error. The network distortion depends on the minimum elevation angle used in the analysis of the GPS phase observables, becoming larger as the minimum elevation angle increases. The steady evolution of the GPS constellation as new satellites are launched, age, and are decommissioned, leads to the effects of PCO errors varying with time that introduce an apparent global-scale rate change. We demonstrate here that current estimates for PCO errors result in a geographically variable error in the vertical rate at the 1-2 mm/yr level, which will impact high-precision crustal deformation studies.

Cardellach, E.↗

Variability and Trends in Sea Ice Extent and Ice Production in the Ross Sea

Salt release during sea ice formation in the Ross Sea coastal regions is regarded as a primary forcing for the regional generation of Antarctic Bottom Water. Passive microwave data from November 1978 through 2008 are used to examine the detailed seasonal and interannual characteristics of the sea ice cover of the Ross Sea and the adjacent Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas. For this period the sea ice extent in the Ross Sea shows the greatest increase of all the Antarctic seas. Variability in the ice cover in these regions is linked to changes in the Southern Annular Mode and secondarily to the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave. Over the Ross Sea shelf, analysis of sea ice drift data from 1992 to 2008 yields a positive rate of increase in the net ice export of about 30,000 sq km/yr. For a characteristic ice thickness of 0.6 m, this yields a volume transport of about 20 cu km/yr, which is almost identical, within error bars, to our estimate of the trend in ice production. The increase in brine rejection in the Ross Shelf Polynya associated with the estimated increase with the ice production, however, is not consistent with the reported Ross Sea salinity decrease. The locally generated sea ice enhancement of Ross Sea salinity may be offset by an increase of relatively low salinity of the water advected into the region from the Amundsen Sea, a consequence of increased precipitation and regional glacial ice melt.

Comiso, Josefino↗

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Physics-preserving enriched Galerkin method for a fully-coupled thermo-poroelasticity model

This paper proposes a new numerical method for a fully-coupled, quasi-static thermo-poroelasticity model in a unified enriched Galerkin (EG) method framework. In our method, the mechanics sub-problem is solved using a locking-free EG method, and the flow and heat sub-problems are solved using a locally-conservative EG method. The proposed method offers mass and energy conservation properties with much lower costs than other methods with the same properties, including discontinuous Galerkin methods and mixed finite element methods. The well-posedness and optimal a priori error estimates are carefully derived. Here, several numerical tests confirm the theoretical optimal convergence rates and the mass and energy conservation properties of the new method.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Bayesian estimation of cross-section and errors of experiment and calculation for accurate prediction of neutronic characteristics

In some experiments, there might be a correlation of experimental errors such as an error caused by fabrication. The correlation of calculation errors also might exist among analyses of experiments. In the present study, considering these correlations, the cross-section and errors of experiment and calculation are adjusted for the accurate prediction of neutronic characteristics. The adjustment method is derived based on Bayesian theory. The 'a posteriori' distributions of cross-section and errors of experiment and calculation are obtained by the derivation. The case study is performed by using the benchmarks of light-water moderated experiments reported in ICSBEP. The error from fuel rod fabrication and measurement are included in the experiment error, and the error from the simplification of the benchmark model is included in the calculation error. Since these errors have a positive correlation among the benchmarks, the prediction accuracy is expected to be improved by considering these correlations. For the sensitivity analysis of the correlation among benchmarks, the correlation coefficient of experiment error and that of calculation error is assumed from 0.0 to 0.9. The results indicate that the prediction accuracy of the multiplication factor can be improved by increasing the correlation coefficient of experiment error and that of calculation error. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Multitiered computational methodology for extracting three-dimensional rotational diffusion coefficients from x-ray photon correlation spectroscopy data without structural information

X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) is a powerful technique for analyzing particle systems by investigating their dynamics in suspensions across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. This is done by illuminating samples with coherent x-ray beams and calculating the correlation function of the obtained x-ray scattering images. XPCS is uniquely suited for studying Brownian dynamics, consisting of translational and rotational diffusion. While traditional XPCS image analysis techniques can extract translational diffusion components, they are unable to estimate rotational diffusion coefficients. Here, we introduce a methodology that combines the angular-temporal cross-correlation analysis and a algorithmic framework called Multi-Tiered Estimation for Correlation Spectroscopy in 3D for estimating three-dimensional rotational diffusion coefficients from XPCS images of three-dimensional particle systems. We demonstrate our methodology for extracting rotational diffusion coefficients from XPCS data by applying it to simulated noisy x-ray images of systems of crossing nanotubes and proteins that evolve under translational and rotational Brownian motion for different diffusion rates. Furthermore, our results show that our approach determines rotational diffusion coefficients within a few percent error.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Thermal-distortion analysis of a spacecraft box truss in geostationary orbit

The Mission to Planet Earth enlists the use of a geostationary platform to support Earth science monitoring instruments. The strongback for a proposed geostationary platform is a deployable box truss that supports two large diameter passive microwave radiometer (PMR) and several other science instruments. A study was performed to estimate the north-south and east-west pointing errors at the mounting locations of the two PMRs due to on-orbit thermal distortions of the main truss. The baseline configuration indicated that the east-west pointing error greatly exceeded the required limits. Primary origins of the pointing errors were identified, and methods for their reduction were discussed. Thermal performance enhancements to the truss structure were modeled and analyzed, including state-of-the-art surface coatings and insulation techniques. Comparisons of the thermal enhancements to the baseline were performed. Results demonstrated that using a thermal enclosure insulating technique reduced external heat fluxes, and distributed those heat fluxes more evenly throughout the structure, sufficiently reducing the pointing error to satisfy pointing accuracy requirements for the PMR's.

Cosgrove, Patrick A.↗

Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations

The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO 2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO 2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO 2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5-8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO 2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Revised estimates of NO 2 reductions during the COVID-19 lockdowns using updated TROPOMI NO 2 retrievals and model simulations

The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) observed unprecedented declines in NO 2 vertical column densities (VCD) over the world's most densely populated cities during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns. These favorable changes in NO 2 air quality were correlated with sharp reductions in traffic volume and economic activity during the lockdowns. In this comprehensive global study, we provide revised estimates of the declines in anthropogenic emissions for 36 megacities using a novel methodology for disentangling the anthropogenic emissions from the meteorological transport and natural variability. We further quantify the uncertainty associated with changes in the a priori profile shape information during the lockdowns due to reduced emissions. Satellite NO 2 retrieval techniques calculate an air mass factor that requires a priori NO 2 profile shape information representative of the local atmosphere. This information, which is typically obtained from a chemical transport model (CTM), was not available for the early studies. This study also accounts for the satellite sampling errors resulting from the selective sampling of non-cloudy scenes during the study period. For our analysis, we used CTM simulations that were generated with and without COVID-impacted emissions. We perform retrievals of tropospheric NO 2 columns with the NASA NO 2 algorithm, and then use observed and simulated data to disentangle the meteorological transport from the contribution due anthropogenic emissions. We found that the meteorological transport was most significant source of variability ranging between −35% and 22% of the change total tropospheric VCD. We also find that not accounting for changes in the a priori NO 2 profile shape information during the lockdowns resulted in systematic retrieval errors that were up to 12% of the estimated decline, and the elimination of cloud contaminated scenes resulted in sampling errors that in general ranged between varied ±15%.

NO2↗