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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Future Projections of the Large-Scale Meteorology Associated with California Heat Waves in CMIP5 Models

Previous work showed that climate models capture historical large-scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs) associated with California Central Valley heat waves including both ways these heat waves form. This work examines what models predict under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Model performance varies, so a multimodel average weights each model based on its historical performance in four parameters. An LSMP index (LSMPi) defined using upper atmosphere variables captures dates of past extreme surface temperature maxima. LSMPi correlates well with all values of California Central Valley-average surface maximum temperature. LSMPi distributions in future simulations shift ~0.6 standard deviations higher between 1961–2000 and 2061–2100 for RCP8.5 data. Based on the historical climatology, future scenarios show a large increase in the frequency and duration of heat waves in every model. Four times as many heat waves occur and their median duration doubles, using historical thresholds. Of the two ways heat waves form, Type 1 has similar frequency in the future. But, Type 2 becomes much more common because Type 2 has a preexisting hot anomaly in Southwestern Canada, much like the historical to future climatological change in that region (a “global warming” signal). The 20-year return value anomaly increases by 30–40%. The average of the 50 hottest temperatures increases 3.5–6 K depending on the scenario. When extreme values are defined using the future climatology, the models and their average have no consistent increase or decrease of distribution properties such as shape, scale, and return values of the extremes compared to historical values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-D-19A-04: Parameter Characterization of Electron Beam Monte Carlo Phase Space of TrueBeam Linacs

Purpose: For TrueBeam Monte Carlo simulations, Varian does not distribute linac head geometry and material compositions, instead providing a phase space file (PSF) for the users. The PSF has a finite number of particle histories and can have very large file size, yet still contains inherent statistical noises. The purpose of this study is to characterize the electron beam PSF with parameters. Methods: The PSF is a snapshot of all particles' information at a given plane above jaws including type, energy, position, and directions. This study utilized a preliminary TrueBeam PSF, of which validation against measurement is presented in another study. To characterize the PSF, distributions of energy, position, and direction of all particles are analyzed as piece-wise parameterized functions of radius and polar angle. Subsequently, a pseudo PSF was generated based on this characterization. Validation was assessed by directly comparing the true and pseudo PSFs, and by using both PSFs in the down-stream MC simulations (BEAMnrc/DOSXYZnrc) and comparing dose distributions for 3 applicators at 15 MeV. Statistical uncertainty of 4% was limited by the number of histories in the original PSF. Percent depth dose (PDD) and orthogonal (PRF) profiles at various depths were evaluated. Results: Preliminary results showed that this PSF parameterization was accurate, with no visible differences between original and pseudo PSFs except at the edge (6 cm off axis), which did not impact dose distributions in phantom. PDD differences were within 1 mm for R{sub 7} {sub 0}, R{sub 5} {sub 0}, R{sub 3} {sub 0}, and R{sub 1} {sub 0}, and PRF field size and penumbras were within 2 mm. Conclusion: A PSF can be successfully characterized by distributions for energy, position, and direction as parameterized functions of radius and polar angles; this facilitates generating sufficient particles at any statistical precision. Analyses for all other electron energies are under way and results will be included in the presentation.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

RADIO SYNCHROTRON EMISSION FROM A BOW SHOCK AROUND THE GAS CLOUD G2 HEADING TOWARD THE GALACTIC CENTER

A dense ionized cloud of gas has been recently discovered to be moving directly toward the supermassive black hole, Sgr A*, at the Galactic center. In 2013 June, at the pericenter of its highly eccentric orbit, the cloud will be approximately 3100 Schwarzschild radii from the black hole and will move supersonically through the ambient hot gas with a velocity of v{sub p} Almost-Equal-To 5400 km s{sup -1}. A bow shock is likely to form in front of the cloud and could accelerate electrons to relativistic energies. We estimate via particle-in-cell simulations the energy distribution of the accelerated electrons and show that the non-thermal synchrotron emission from these electrons might exceed the quiescent radio emission from Sgr A* by a factor of several. The enhanced radio emission should be detectable at GHz and higher frequencies around the time of pericentric passage and in the following months. The bow shock emission is expected to be displaced from the quiescent radio emission of Sgr A* by {approx}33 mas. Interferometric observations could resolve potential changes in the radio image of Sgr A* at wavelengths {approx}< 6 cm.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

The influence of random indium alloy fluctuations in indium gallium nitride quantum wells on the device behavior

In this paper, we describe the influence of the intrinsic indium fluctuation in the InGaN quantum wells on the carrier transport, efficiency droop, and emission spectrum in GaN-based light emitting diodes (LEDs). Both real and randomly generated indium fluctuations were used in 3D simulations and compared to quantum wells with a uniform indium distribution. We found that without further hypothesis the simulations of electrical and optical properties in LEDs such as carrier transport, radiative and Auger recombination, and efficiency droop are greatly improved by considering natural nanoscale indium fluctuations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2017

Influence of Temperature on the Texture Distribution in Two-Phase Region Hot Deformation of Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel

Hot deformation simulation test of 3% Si grain-oriented silicon (CGO) steel was carried out at different temperatures, and evolution of microstructures and recrystallized textures in two-phase region was analyzed by electron backscatter diffraction and optical microscopy. The “δ → γ” and “γ → α” phase transformation points of the two-phase region measured by differential scanning calorimetry method are 1272 and 819 °C, respectively, which are within the ranges of 1300-1350 and 800-850 °C, measured by water quenching. The hot deformation temperature has a large effect on the microstructure and texture in the steel. A higher hot deformation temperature leads to higher degree of recrystallization and larger average grain size, more γ-fiber textures and cube {100} <001> texture, but the rotated cube {100} <011> texture is stable. The recrystallized microstructure was also affected by the phase compositions. While the cube {100} <001> texture results in typical austenite recrystallization texture, {111} textures lead to typical ferrite rolling textures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2011

HIGH-CONTRAST IMAGING SEARCH FOR PLANETS AND BROWN DWARFS AROUND THE MOST MASSIVE STARS IN THE SOLAR NEIGHBORHOOD

There has been a long-standing discussion in the literature as to whether core accretion or disk instability is the dominant mode of planet formation. Over the last decade, several lines of evidence have been presented showing that core accretion is most likely the dominant mechanism for the close-in population of planets probed by radial velocity and transits. However, this does not by itself prove that core accretion is the dominant mode for the total planet population, since disk instability might conceivably produce and retain large numbers of planets in the far-out regions of the disk. If this is a relevant scenario, then the outer massive disks of B-stars should be among the best places for massive planets and brown dwarfs to form and reside. In this study, we present high-contrast imaging of 18 nearby massive stars of which 15 are in the B2-A0 spectral-type range and provide excellent sensitivity to wide companions. By comparing our sensitivities to model predictions of disk instability based on physical criteria for fragmentation and cooling, and using Monte Carlo simulations for orbital distributions, we find that {approx}85% of such companions should have been detected in our images on average. Given this high degree of completeness, stringent statistical limits can be set from the null-detection result, even with the limited sample size. We find that <30% of massive stars form and retain disk instability planets, brown dwarfs, and very low mass stars of <100 M{sub jup} within 300 AU, at 99% confidence. These results, combined with previous findings in the literature, lead to the conclusion that core accretion is likely the dominant mode of planet formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Improvement of carrier injection symmetry and quantum efficiency in InGaN light-emitting diodes with Mg delta-doped barriers

The effect of δ-doping of In{sub 0.06}Ga{sub 0.94}N barriers with Mg on the quantum efficiency of blue light-emitting-diodes (LEDs) with active regions composed of 6 (hex) 3-nm In{sub 0.15}Ga{sub 0.85}N is investigated. Compared to the reference sample, δ-doping of the first barrier on the n-side of the LED structure improves the peak external quantum efficiency (EQE) by 20%, owing to the increased hole concentration in the wells adjacent to the n-side, as confirmed by numerical simulations of carrier distributions across the active region. Doping the second barrier, in addition to the first one, did not further enhance the EQE, which likely indicates compensation of improved hole injection by degradation of the active region quality due to Mg doping. Both LEDs with Mg δ-doped barriers effectively suppress the drop of efficiency at high injection when compared to the reference sample, and the onset of EQE peak roll-off shifts from ∼80 A/cm{sup 2} in the reference LED to ∼120 A/cm{sup 2} in the LEDs with Mg δ-doped barriers.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2012

Stationary electron velocity distribution function in crossed electric and magnetic fields with collisions

Analytical studies and numerical simulations show that the electron velocity distribution function in a Hall thruster discharge with crossed electric and magnetic fields is not Maxwellian. This is due to the fact that the mean free path between collisions is greater than both the Larmor radius and the characteristic dimensions of the discharge channel. However in numerical models of Hall thrusters, a hydrodynamic approach is often used to describe the electron dynamics, because discharge simulation in a fully kinetic approach requires large computing resources and is time consuming. A more accurate modeling of the electron flow in the hydrodynamic approximation requires taking into account the non-Maxwellian character of the distribution function and finding its moments, an approach that reflects the properties of electrons drifting in crossed electric and magnetic fields better than the commonly used Euler or Navier-Stokes approximations. In the present paper, an expression for the electron velocity distribution function in rarefied spatially homogeneous stationary plasma with crossed electric and magnetic fields and predominance of collisions with heavy particles is derived in the relaxation approximation. The main moments of the distribution function including longitudinal and transversal temperatures, the components of the viscous stress tensor, and of the heat flux vector are calculated. Distinctive features of the hydrodynamic description of electrons with a strongly non-equilibrium distribution function and the prospects for further development of the proposed approach for calculating the distribution function in spatially inhomogeneous plasma are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Ion velocity distribution at the termination shock: 1-D PIC simulation

The Voyager 2 (V2) plasma observations of the proton temperature downstream of the quasi-perpendicular heliospheric termination shock (TS) showed that upstream thermal solar wind ions played little role in the shock dissipation mechanism and their downstream temperature is an order of magnitude smaller than predicted by MHD Rankine-Hugoniot conditions. While pickup ions (PUI) are generally expected to play an important role in energy dissipation at the shock, the details remain unclear. Here, one-dimensional (1-D) Particle-in-cell (PIC) code is used to examine kinetic properties and downstream velocity distribution functions of pickup ions (the hot supra-thermal component) and solar wind protons (SWs, the cold component) at the perpendicular heliospheric termination shock. The code treats the pickup ions self-consistently as a third component. Present results show that: (1) both of the incident SWs and PUIs can be separated into two parts: reflected (R) ions and directly transmitted (DT) ions, the energy gain of the R ions at the shock front is much larger than that of the DT ions; (2) the fraction of reflected SWs and their downstream temperature decrease with the relative percentage PUI%; (3) no matter how large the PUI% is, the downstream ion velocity distribution function always can be separated into three parts: 1. a high energy tail (i.e. the wings) dominated by the reflected PUIs, 2. a low energy core mainly contributed by the directly transmitted SWs, and 3. a middle energy part which is a complicated superposition of reflected SWs and directly transmitted PUIs. The significance of the presence of pickup ions on shock front micro-structure and nonstationarity is also discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Evaluation of the New CNDV Option of the Community Land Model: Effects of Dynamic Vegetation and Interactive Nitrogen on CLM4 Means and Variability

The Community Land Model, version 4 (CLM4) includes the option to run the prognostic carbon–nitrogen (CN) model with dynamic vegetation (CNDV). CNDV, which simulates unmanaged vegetation, modifies the CN framework to implement plant biogeography updates. CNDV simulates a reasonable present-day distribution of plant functional types but underestimates tundra vegetation cover. The CNDV simulation is compared against a CN simulation using a vegetation distribution generated by CNDV and against a carbon-only simulation with prescribed nitrogen limitation (CDV). The comparisons focus on the means and variability of carbon pools and fluxes and biophysical factors, such as albedo, surface radiation, and heat fluxes. The study assesses the relative importance of incorporating interactive nitrogen (CDV to CNDV) versus interactive biogeography (CN to CNDV) in present-day equilibrium simulations. None of the three configurations performs consistently better in simulating carbon or biophysical variables compared to observational estimates. The interactive nitrogen ( N ) cycle reduces annual means and interannual variability more than dynamic vegetation. Dynamic vegetation reduces seasonal variability in leaf area and, therefore, in moisture fluxes and surface albedo. The interactive N cycle has the opposite effect of enhancing seasonal variability in moisture fluxes and albedo. CNDV contains greater degrees of freedom than CN or CDV by adjusting both through nitrogen–carbon interactions and through vegetation establishment and mortality. Thus, in these equilibrium simulations, CNDV acts as a stronger “regulator” of variability compared to the other configurations. To conclude, discussed are plausible explanations for this behavior, which has been shown in past studies to improve climate simulations through better represented climate–vegetation interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Porosity-Permeability Evolution During Simultaneous Mineral Dissolution and Precipitation

Permeability in reactive porous media evolves in complex ways that are hard to predict. Macroscopic empirical equations are often used to estimate permeability evolution but fail to reflect the impact of pore scale reactions on permeability. This work aims to understand the evolution of permeability in systems where mineral dissolution and precipitation occur simultaneously. Pore network models are used for permeability simulation of a Paluxy sandstone using pore and pore-throat size distributions from the analysis of X-ray CT images. Pore and pore-throat radii are increased and decreased to reflect the effects of dissolution and precipitation reactions. Varying spatial distributions of reactions are simulated and the resulting porosity and permeability values compared with commonly used macroscopic equations. It is observed that when dissolution occurs at the inlet and precipitation at the outlet, porosity increases while permeability decreases. Similar results are also observed in the respective opposite scenario where precipitation occurs at the inlet and dissolution at the outlet. When dissolution and precipitation reactions are randomly distributed throughout the network, porosity increases with little change in permeability that is not captured by the empirical equations. When reactions are controlled by pore and pore-throat sizes, such as dissolution occurring in pores and pore-throats of small size and precipitation in pores and pore-throats of larger size, porosity and permeability decrease. When precipitation occurs in pores and pore-throats of smaller size and dissolution in pores and pore-throats of larger size, porosity and permeability increase and is described relatively well by the Verma-Pruess porosity-permeability equation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

The spectral evolution of the first Galaxies. III. Simulated James Webb Space Telescope spectra of reionization-epoch galaxies with Lyman continuum leakage

Using four different suites of cosmological simulations, we generate synthetic spectra for galaxies with different Lyman-continuum escape fractions (f (esc)) at redshifts $z\approx 7$–9, in the rest-frame wavelength range relevant for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) NIRSpec instrument. By investigating the effects of realistic star formation histories and metallicity distributions on the EW(Hβ)–β diagram (previously proposed as a tool for identifying galaxies with very high f (esc)), we find that neither of these effects are likely to jeopardize the identification of galaxies with extreme Lyman-continuum leakage. Based on our models, we expect that essentially all $z\approx 7\mbox{--}9$ galaxies that exhibit rest-frame $\mathrm{EW}({\rm{H}}\beta )\lesssim 30$ Å to have ${f}_{\mathrm{esc}}\gt 0.5$. Incorrect assumptions concerning the ionizing fluxes of stellar populations or the dust properties of $z\gt 6$ galaxies can in principle bias the selection, but substantial model deficiencies of this type should at the same time be evident from offsets in the observed distribution of $z\gt 6$ galaxies in the EW(Hβ)–β diagram compared to the simulated distribution. Such offsets would thereby allow JWST/NIRSpec measurements of these observables to serve as input for further model refinement.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-T-89: Investigation of Simultaneous Optimization of Photon and Electron Apertures for Mixed Beam Radiotherapy Based On An Academic Case

Purpose: To estimate the dosimetric potential of mixed beam radiotherapy (MBRT) by using a single process optimizing the shape and weight of photon and electron apertures simultaneously based on Monte Carlo beamlet dose distributions. Methods: A simulated annealing based direct aperture optimization capable to perform simultaneous optimization was developed to generate treatment plans for MERT, photon-IMRT and MBRT. Both photon and electron apertures are collimated with the photon-MLC and are delivered in a segmented manner. For dosimetric comparison and for investigating the dependency on the number of apertures, photon-IMRT, MERT and MBRT plans were generated for an academic case consisting of a water phantom containing two shallow PTVs differing in the maximal depth of 5 and 7 cm, respectively and two OARs in distal and lateral direction to the PTVs. Results: For the superficial PTV, the dose homogeneity (V95%–V107%) and the mean dose (in percent of the prescribed dose) to the distal and the lateral OARs of the MBRT plan (94.9%, 16.9%, 17.8%) are superior or comparable to those for the MERT (74%, 18.4%, 15.4%) and the photon-IMRT plan (89.4%, 20.8%, 24.7%). For the enlarged PTV, the dosimetric superiority of MBRT compared to MERT and photon-IMRT is even more pronounced. Furthermore, an MBRT plan with 12 electron and 10 photon apertures lead to an objective function value 38% lower than that of a photon-IMRT plan with 40 apertures. Conclusion: The results of simultaneous optimization for MBRT are promising with regards to further OAR sparing and improved dose coverage to the PTV compared to photon-IMRT and MERT. Especially superficial targets with deeper subparts (>5 cm) could substantially benefit. Moreover, MBRT seems to be a possible solution of two downsides of photon-IMRT, namely the extended low dose bath and the requirement of numerous apertures. This work was supported by Varian Medical Systems. This work was supported by Varian Medical Systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Hydrological parameter estimations from a conservative tracer test with variable-density effects at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site

Reliable predictions of groundwater flow and solute transport require an estimation of the detailed distribution of the parameters (e.g., hydraulic conductivity, effective porosity) controlling these processes. However, such parameters are difficult to estimate because of the inaccessibility and complexity of the subsurface. In this regard, developments in parameter estimation techniques and investigations of field experiments are still challenging and necessary to improve our understanding and the prediction of hydrological processes. Here we analyze a conservative tracer test conducted at the Boise Hydrogeophysical Research Site in 2001 in a heterogeneous unconfined fluvial aquifer. Some relevant characteristics of this test include: variable-density (sinking) effects because of the injection concentration of the bromide tracer, the relatively small size of the experiment, and the availability of various sources of geophysical and hydrological information. The information contained in this experiment is evaluated through several parameter estimation approaches, including a grid-search-based strategy, stochastic simulation of hydrological property distributions, and deterministic inversion using regularization and pilot-point techniques. Doing this allows us to investigate hydraulic conductivity and effective porosity distributions and to compare the effects of assumptions from several methods and parameterizations. Our results provide new insights into the understanding of variabledensity transport processes and the hydrological relevance of incorporating various sources of information in parameter estimation approaches. Among others, the variable-density effect and the effective porosity distribution, as well as their coupling with the hydraulic conductivity structure, are seen to be significant in the transport process. The results also show that assumed prior information can strongly influence the estimated distributions of hydrological properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Final Report)

The AGGREGATE project team successfully developed and validated various modules for outage management. Brief summaries of each module are provided to showcase their strength for outage management and restoration for a distribution system with a high penetration of connected distribution energy resources (DERs). In recent years, inverter-based DERs have been widely deployed in distribution system. A most of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar power generation is not visible to the utility. The data-driven DER and load estimation modules are using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to manage this issue, which provides an opportunity for distribution system operators (DSOs) to operate systems and make decisions in real-time for a distribution system with a high penetration of DERs deployed. Also, the estimated DER and true load can be further leveraged in network aggregation and cold-load pick up estimation for reducing the computing complexity and providing for fast restoration. After load demand and DER power generations have been estimated, the information will support topology and state estimation (SE). The topology estimation module demonstrated the viability of mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to estimate the most likely operational radial topology and outage sections using power flow measurements, historical/estimated load and DERs data and smart meter ping measurements. Formulation includes continuous (power flow, load and DERs data) and binary measurements (smart meter ping measurements) in a single formulation. Errors in continuous data and binary data are modeled as normal distribution and Bernoulli distribution, respectively. In the future distribution grid, the power injection from controllable DERs will be essential for efficient and resilient grid operation. However, determining the optimal DER injections and restoration actions is dependent on knowledge of the system states. State estimation (SE), already the cornerstone of transmission energy management systems, will become commonplace in distribution management systems as more measurements become available from deployment of automated metering infrastructure (AMI). Observability analysis is the first step in SE, as it determines the sufficiency of the available measurements for accurately estimating the current system states. A new type of pseudo-measurement called a Correlational Measurement (CM) is introduced in this module, to enhance the observability of the system to enable more accurate SE. CMs encapsulate knowledge of correlation between demand patterns for similar classes of loads as well as injection patterns for same-technology renewable DERs. During grid contingency scenarios, DERs have been traditionally disconnected, without any fault ride-through capabilities. However, with new regulations and better technology, it is feasible for these resources to contribute to the grid’s restoration after an adverse event and hence enhance resilience. The controllability module proposes a two-step restoration scheme for the power system restoration process by leveraging additional degrees of freedom in power electronics interfaced DERs for mitigating voltage problems. In a resilience mode without the utility system, the distribution grid relies on DERs to serve critical load. In such a severe event with multiple faults on the distribution feeders, actuation of various protective devices (PDs) divides the distribution system into electrical islands. The undetected actuated PDs due to fault current contributions from DERs can delay the restoration process, thereby reducing the system resilience. The Advanced Outage Management (AOM) and the Advanced Feeder Restoration (AFR) modules developed in this project provide improved system resilience with multiple DERs. AOM identifies the faulted sections and actuated PDs in a distribution system with DERs by incorporating smart meter data. The most credible outage scenario including fault locations, PD actuations, and fault indicator (FI) failures is identified by a set of binary integer linear programming incorporating hypotheses. The AFR module serves to restore a distribution system with available energy resources taking into consideration the availability of utility sources and DERs. By partitioning the system into islands, critical load will be served with the available generation resources within islands based on the solution of a MILP. When the utility systems become available, the optimal path will be determined by a spanning tree search algorithm that reconnects these islands back to substations and restores the remaining load. The transmission and distribution (T&D) co-simulation module was used to validate the effect of a control action performed on the distribution side assets as it propagates to the transmission side. This ensures that the control action performed results in a feasible operating point on both the transmission and the distribution system. In addition to validation, the team used the T&D co-simulation module to demonstrate how distribution system assets can be used to mitigate issues on the transmission system. Specifically, the team demonstrated that appropriate switching operations on the distribution side can alleviate the line overload condition on the transmission side without causing new operational constraint violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2015

Transactive Control and Coordination of Distributed Assets for Ancillary Services: Controls, Markets and Simulations

The purpose of this project is to develop a plausible transactive framework for DER participation in a regulation market. This document focuses on the methodology for creating a transactive-based regulation market, using one class of end-use devices as an example. The system contains two parts, one for acquiring resources at a longer timescale and a second for controlling the devices in a distributed manner at much shorter timescales. The first is based on a formal double-auction market where every five minutes each device bids the amount of resource it is able to provide and the minimum price that it would accept to provide that resource. The bid price is determined by the current state of the device and the willingness of the consumer to participate. The market system collects and orders the bids by price, and then determines a cleared price to meet the level of regulation needed. It broadcasts the cleared price to the devices, which results in contracting the services of the least cost resources. By contract, the devices that cleared the market are now engaged for the next five-minute market period. They are part of a distributed control system that allows them to respond at four-second intervals to a broadcasted regulation signal. The approach also limits the number of times devices can cycle between states (say on to off) in a given amount of time to protect the equipment life.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Is the assumption of normality or log-normality for continuous response data critical for benchmark dose estimation?

Continuous responses (e.g. body weight) are widely used in risk assessment for determining the benchmark dose (BMD) which is used to derive a U.S. EPA reference dose. One critical question that is not often addressed in dose–response assessments is whether to model the continuous data as normally or log-normally distributed. Additionally, if lognormality is assumed, and only summarized response data (i.e., mean ± standard deviation) are available as is usual in the peer-reviewed literature, the BMD can only be approximated. In this study, using the “hybrid” method and relative deviation approach, we first evaluate six representative continuous dose–response datasets reporting individual animal responses to investigate the impact on BMD/BMDL estimates of (1) the distribution assumption and (2) the use of summarized versus individual animal data when a log-normal distribution is assumed. We also conduct simulation studies evaluating model fits to various known distributions to investigate whether the distribution assumption has influence on BMD/BMDL estimates. Our results indicate that BMDs estimated using the hybrid method are more sensitive to the distribution assumption than counterpart BMDs estimated using the relative deviation approach. The choice of distribution assumption has limited impact on the BMD/BMDL estimates when the within dose-group variance is small, while the lognormality assumption is a better choice for relative deviation method when data are more skewed because of its appropriateness in describing the relationship between mean and standard deviation. Additionally, the results suggest that the use of summarized data versus individual response data to characterize log-normal distributions has minimal impact on BMD estimates. - Highlights: • We investigate to what extent the distribution assumption can affect BMD estimates. • Both real data analysis and simulation study are conducted. • BMDs estimated using hybrid method are more sensitive to distribution assumption. • Summarized continuous data are adequate for BMD estimation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures

Abstract Pronounced intermodel differences in the projected response of land surface precipitation (LSP) to future anthropogenic forcing remain in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model integrations. A large fraction of the intermodel spread in projected LSP trends is demonstrated here to be associated with systematic differences in simulated sea surface temperature (SST) trends, especially the representation of changes in (i) the interhemispheric SST gradient and (ii) the tropical Pacific SSTs. By contrast, intermodel differences in global mean SST, representative of differing global climate sensitivities, exert limited systematic influence on LSP patterns. These results highlight the importance to regional terrestrial precipitation changes of properly simulating the spatial distribution of large‐scale, remote changes as reflected in the SST response to increasing greenhouse gases. Moreover, they provide guidance regarding which region‐specific precipitation projections may be potentially better constrained for use in climate change impact assessments.

Anderson, Bruce T.↗