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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Parallelization and Visual Analysis of Multidimensional Fields: Application to Ozone Production, Destruction, and Transport in Three Dimensions

The three-dimensional, spectral transport model used in the current project was first successfully integrated over climatological time scales by Dr. Guang Ping Lou for the simulation of atmospheric N2O using the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) 4-dimensional, assimilated wind and temperature data set. A non-parallel, FORTRAN version of this integration using a fairly simple N2O chemistry package containing only photo-chemical reactions was used to verify our initial parallel model results. The integrations reproduced the gross features of the observed stratospheric climatological N2O distributions but also simulated the structure of the stratospheric Antarctic vortex and its evolution. Subsequently, Dr. Thomas Kindler, who produced much of the parallel version of our model, enlarged the N2O model chemistry package to include N2O reactions involving O(D-1) and also introduced assimilated wind data from NASA as well as UKMO. Initially, transport calculations without chemistry were run using Carbon-14 as a non-reactive tracer gas with the result that large differences in the transport properties of the two assimilated wind data sets were apparent from the resultant Carbon-14 distributions. Subsequent calculations for N2O, including its chemistry, with the two input winds data sets with verification from UARS satellite observations have refined the transport differences between the two such that the model's steering capabilities could be used to infer the correct climatological vertical velocity fields required to support the N2O observations. During this process, it was also discovered that both the NASA and the UKMO data contained spurious values in some of the higher frequency wave components, leading to incorrect local transport calculations and ultimately affecting the large scale properties of the model's N2O distributions, particularly at tropical latitudes. Subsequent model runs with wind data that had been filtered to remove some of the high frequency components produced much more realistic N2O distributions. During the past few months, the UKMO wind data base for a complete two-year period was processed into spectral form for model use. This new version of the input transport data base now includes complete temperature fields as well as the necessary wind data. This was done to facilitate advanced chemical calculations in the parallel model which often depend upon temperature. Additional UKMO data is being added as it becomes available.

Schwan, Karsten↗

Precipitation Characteristics of ISCCP Cloud Regimes for Improving Model Hydrological Budgets

The key in unraveling relationships between precipitation and atmospheric circulations is their common linkage to clouds. Clouds can be described in a variety of ways and several approaches can be adopted to examine their connections to precipitation. We claim that when cloud regimes (aka weather states) from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) are used to conditionally sample/sort and average precipitation data, useful insight and GCM-appropriate diagnostics on the origins and distribution of precipitation can be obtained. The ISCCP cloud regimes are mesoscale (2.5 ) cloud mixtures determined by cluster analysis on joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure inferred from geostationary and polar orbiter satellite passive retrievals. The ISCCP cloud regime data are combined with GPCP IDD merged surface precipitation data and/or higher temporal and spatial resolution TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data. The analysis is performed separately for three geographical zones, tropics, and northern/southern midlatitudes (for GPCP; only the tropics can be examined with TMPA data). Our presentation aspires to provide answers to the following questions: (l) What is the mean and variability of surface precipitation produced by each cloud regime at the time of regime occurrence? (2) What is the relative contribution of each cloud regime to the total precipitation within its geographical zone? (3) What is the geographical distribution of precipitation corresponding to particular cloud regime? (4) To what extent are the cloud regimes distinct in terms of their precipitation characteristics and is the regime ordering in terms of convective strength consistent with the observed precipitation intensity?

Lee, D.↗

A large accessory genome and high recombination rates may influence global distribution and broad host range of the fungal plant pathogen Claviceps purpurea

Pangenome analyses are increasingly being utilized to study the evolution of eukaryotic organisms. While pangenomes can provide insight into polymorphic gene content, inferences about the ecological and adaptive potential of such organisms also need to be accompanied by additional supportive genomic analyses. In this study we constructed a pangenome of Claviceps purpurea from 24 genomes and examined the positive selection and recombination landscape of an economically important fungal organism for pharmacology and agricultural research. Together, these analyses revealed that C. purpurea has a relatively large accessory genome (~ 38%), high recombination rates (ρ = 0.044), and transposon mediated gene duplication. However, due to observations of relatively low transposable element (TE) content (8.8%) and a lack of variability in genome sizes, prolific TE expansion may be controlled by frequent recombination. We additionally identified that within the ergoline biosynthetic cluster the lpsA1 and lpsA2 were the result of a recombination event. However, the high recombination rates observed in C. purpurea may be influencing an overall trend of purifying selection across the genome. These results showcase the use of selection and recombination landscapes to identify mechanisms contributing to pangenome structure and primary factors influencing the evolution of an organism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Substructure at High Speed. I. Inferring the Escape Velocity in the Presence of Kinematic Substructure

Abstract The local escape velocity provides valuable inputs to the mass profile of the galaxy, and requires understanding the tail of the stellar speed distribution. Following Leonard & Tremaine, various works have since modeled the tail of the stellar speed distribution as ∝ ( v esc − v ) k , where v esc is the escape velocity, and k is the slope of the distribution. In such studies, however, these two parameters were found to be largely degenerate and often a narrow prior is imposed on k in order to constrain v esc . Furthermore, the validity of the power-law form can breakdown in the presence of multiple kinematic substructures or other mis-modeled features in the data. In this paper, we introduce a strategy that for the first time takes into account the presence of kinematic substructure. We model the tail of the velocity distribution as a sum of multiple power laws as a way of introducing a more flexible fitting framework. Using mock data and data from FIRE simulations of Milky Way-like galaxies, we show the robustness of this method in the presence of kinematic structure that is similar to the recently discovered Gaia Sausage. In a companion paper, we present the new measurement of the escape velocity and subsequently the mass of the Milky Way using Gaia eDR3 data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Inference of precipitation through thermal infrared measurements of soil moisture

The physics of microwave radiative transfer is well understood so that causal models can be assembled which relate the observed brightness temperatures to assumed distributions of hydrometeors (both liquid and ice), non-precipitating clouds, water vapor oxygen, and surface conditions. Present models assume a Marshall Palmer size distribution of liquid hydrometers from the surface to the freezing level (near the 0 C isotherm) and a variable thickness of frozen hydrometeors above that with various reasonable distribution of the other relevant constituents. The validity of such models is discussed. All uncertainties in the rain rate retrieval algorithms can be expressed in terms of specific model uncertainties which can be addressed through appropriate measurements. Those factors which must be known to achieve umambiguous results can be identified so that rainfall measuring algorithms can be developed and improved. The emissivity of the underlying surface significantly affects the contrast that may be measured between areas covered by rain and those which are dry. Sensing strategies for measuring rain over the ocean and rain over land are reviewed.

Wetzel, P. J.↗

Sea ice motions in the central arctic ice central arctic pack ice as inferred from AVHRR imagery

Synoptic observations of ice motion in the Arctic Basin are currently limited to those acquired by drifting buoys and, more recently, radar data from ERS-1. Buoys are not uniformly distributed throughout the Arctic, and SAR coverage is limited regionally and temporally due to the data volume, swath width, processing requirements, and power needs of the SAR. Additional ice-motion observations that can map ice responses simultaneously over large portions of the Arctic on daily to weekly time intervals are thus needed to augment the SAR and buoy data and to provide an intermediate-scale measure of ice drift suitable for climatological analyses and ice modeling. Merging the remotely-sensed ice motions with SAR, AVHRR, OLS, and SSM/I imagery permits studies of ice processes over a range of space and time scales. A medium-resolution passive microwave sensor might be ideal for this purpose, but no such satellite will be available in the near future. Combinations of existing data types are thus likely to be our best bet for generating motion fields with a coverage and resolution best suited to climate studies. Principal objectives of this project are to: (1) demonstrate whether sufficient ice features and ice motion existed within the consolidated ice pack to permit motion tracking using AVHRR imagery; (2) determine the limits imposed on AVHRR mapping by cloud cover; and (3) test the applicability of AVHRR-derived motions in studies of ice-atmosphere interactions.

Emery, William↗

Sea ice motions in the Central Arctic pack ice as inferred from AVHRR imagery

Synoptic observations of ice motion in the Arctic Basin are currently limited to those acquired by drifting buoys and, more recently, radar data from ERS-1. Buoys are not uniformly distributed throughout the Arctic, and SAR coverage is currently limited regionally and temporally due to the data volume, swath width, processing requirements, and power needs of the SAR. Additional ice-motion observations that can map ice responses simultaneously over large portions of the Arctic on daily to weekly time intervals are thus needed to augment the SAR and buoys data and to provide an intermediate-scale measure of ice drift suitable for climatological analyses and ice modeling. Principal objectives of this project were to: (1) demonstrate whether sufficient ice features and ice motion existed within the consolidated ice pack to permit motion tracking using AVHRR imagery; (2) determine the limits imposed on AVHRR mapping by cloud cover; and (3) test the applicability of AVHRR-derived motions in studies of ice-atmosphere interactions. Each of these main objectives was addressed. We conclude that AVHRR data, particularly when blended with other available observations, provide a valuable data set for studying sea ice processes. In a follow-on project, we are now extending this work to cover larger areas and to address science questions in more detail.

Emery, William↗

A Lagrangian View of Stratospheric Trace Gas Distributions

As a result of photochemistry, some relationship between the stratospheric age-of-air and the amount of tracer contained within an air sample is expected. The existence of such a relationship allows inferences about transport history to be made from observations of chemical tracers. This paper lays down the conceptual foundations for the relationship between age and tracer amount, developed within a Lagrangian framework. In general, the photochemical loss depends not only on the age of the parcel but also on its path. We show that under the "average path approximation" that the path variations are less important than parcel age. The average path approximation then allows us to develop a formal relationship between the age spectrum and the tracer spectrum. Using the relation between the tracer and age spectra, tracer-tracer correlations can be interpreted as resulting from mixing which connects parts of the single path photochemistry curve, which is formed purely from the action of photochemistry on an irreducible parcel. This geometric interpretation of mixing gives rise to constraints on trace gas correlations, and explains why some observations are do not fall on rapid mixing curves. This effect is seen in the ATMOS observations.

Schoeberl, M. R.↗

Preliminary results of fisheries investigation associated with Skylab-3

The author has identified the following significant results. This investigation is to establish the feasibility of utilizing remotely sensed data acquired from aircraft and satellite platforms to provide information concerning the distribution and abundance of oceanic gamefish. Data from the test area in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has made possible the identification of fisheries significant environmental parameters for white marlin. Predictive models based on catch data and surface truth information have been developed and have demonstrated potential for reducing search significantly by identifying areas which have a high probability of being productive. Three of the parameters utilized by the model, chlorophyll-a, sea surface temperature, and turbidity have been inferred from aircraft sensor data. Cloud cover and delayed receipt have inhibited the use of Skylab data. The first step toward establishing the feasibility of utilizing remotely sensed data to assess amd monitor the distribution of ocean gamefish has been taken with the successful identification of fisheries significant oceanographic parameters and the demonstration of the capability of measuring most of these parameters remotely.

Savastano, K. J.↗

Climate-driven divergence in plant-microbiome interactions generates range-wide variation in bud break phenology

Soil microbiomes are rapidly becoming known as an important driver of plant phenotypic variation and may mediate plant responses to environmental factors. However, integrating spatial scales relevant to climate change with plant intraspecific genetic variation and soil microbial ecology is difficult, making studies of broad inference rare. Here we hypothesize and show: 1) the degree to which tree genotypes condition their soil microbiomes varies by population across the geographic distribution of a widespread riparian tree, Populus angustifolia; 2) geographic dissimilarity in soil microbiomes among populations is influenced by both abiotic and biotic environmental variation; and 3) soil microbiomes that vary in response to abiotic and biotic factors can change plant foliar phenology. We show soil microbiomes respond to intraspecific variation at the tree genotype and population level, and geographic variation in soil characteristics and climate. Using a fully reciprocal plant population by soil location feedback experiment, we identified a climate-based soil microbiome effect that advanced and delayed bud break phenology by approximately 10 days. These results demonstrate a landscape-level feedback between tree populations and associated soil microbial communities and suggest soil microbes may play important roles in mediating and buffering bud break phenology with climate warming, with whole ecosystem implications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of social structure and management on risk of disease establishment in wild pigs

Contact heterogeneity among hosts determines invasion and spreading dynamics of infectious disease, thus its characterization is essential for identifying effective disease control strategies. Yet, little is known about the factors shaping contact networks in many 28 wildlife species and how wildlife management actions might affect contact networks. Wild pigs in North America are an invasive, socially-structured species that pose a health concern for domestic swine given their ability to transmit numerous devastating diseases 2 such as African swine fever (ASF). Using proximity loggers and GPS data from 48 wild pigs in Florida and South Carolina, USA, we employed a probabilistic framework to estimate weighted contact networks. We determined the effects of sex, social group, and spatial distribution (monthly home range overlap and distance) on wild pig contact. We also estimated the impacts of management-induced perturbations on contact and inferred their effects on ASF establishment in wild pigs with simulation. Social group membership was the primary factor influencing contacts. Between-group contacts depended primarily on space use characteristics, with fewer contacts among groups separated by >2 km and no contacts among groups >4 km apart within a month. Modeling ASF dynamics on the contact network demonstrated that indirect contacts resulting from baiting (a typical method of attracting wild pigs or game species to a site to enhance recreational hunting) increased the risk of disease establishment by ~33% relative to direct contact. Low-intensity population reduction (<5.9% of the population) had no detectable impact on contact structure but reduced predicted ASF establishment risk relative to no population reduction. Here, we demonstrate an approach for understanding the relative role of spatial, social, and individual-level characteristics in shaping contact networks and predicting their effects on disease establishment risk, thus providing insight for optimizing disease control in spatially- and socially-structured wildlife species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian Optimal Sensor Augmentation Via Estimated Mutual Information

We consider the problem of designing a sensor network to most efficiently locate the source of a seismic event. The left panel of Figure 1 shows 982 possible sensor locations in a region of interest. The objective is to infer the unknown location of an earthquake, indicated by the gold dot for illustration purposes. Assume that three sensors have already been placed for data collection. Travel times of the P-wave from the source to the three sensors are observed and used to infer the unknown source location via a Bayesian statistical model described subsequently. The right panel of Figure 1 shows samples from the resulting posterior distribution for source location along with a posterior estimate of this location.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Scalable Algorithms for Inverse Problems With High-Dimensional Parameter Spaces

Inverse problems, which involve inferring unknown parameters from observed data, present significant computational challenges, especially in large-scale settings with high-dimensional unknown parameters and nonlinear relationships between the unknowns and observations. Bayesian inference provides an approach for addressing these problems, often relying on sequential sampling methods like Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate the posterior distribution of the parameters. However, MCMC methods become computationally demanding as the dimensionality of the problem increases, particularly in large-scale systems where likelihood evaluations rely on solving partial differential equations (PDEs) on large spatial domains with finely resolved meshes. To overcome these limitations, recent advancements have focused on designing scalable computa tional techniques – for both PDE simulations and sampling strategies – to make Bayesian methods feasible for high-dimensional problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Conditional H I Mass Functions and the H I -to-halo Mass Relation in the Local Universe

We present a new H I mass estimator that relates log 10 (M HI /M * ) to a linear combination of four galaxy properties: stellar surface mass density, color index u - r, stellar mass, and concentration index, with the scatter of individual galaxies around the mean H I mass modeled with a Gaussian distribution function. We calibrate the estimator using the xGASS sample, including both H I detection and nondetection, and constrain the model parameters through Bayesian inferences. Tests with mock catalogs demonstrate that our estimator provides unbiased H I masses for optical samples like SDSS. We apply our estimator to the SDSS spectroscopic sample to estimate the H I mass function (HIMF) of local galaxies, as well as the conditional H I mass function in galaxy groups and the H I –halo mass relation. Our HIMF agrees with the ALFALFA measurements at M HI ≳ 5 × 10 9 M ⊙ , but with higher amplitude and a steeper slope at lower masses. We show that this discrepancy is caused primarily by the cosmic variance, which is corrected for the SDSS sample but not for ALFALFA. The total CHIMFs for all halo masses can be described by a single Schechter function, while those of central galaxies show a double-Gaussian profile. The total H I mass in a group increases monotonically with halo mass, but for central galaxies, the H I mass shows weak dependence on halo mass when M h ≳ 10 12 M ⊙ . The observed H I –halo mass relation is not reproduced by current hydrodynamic simulations and semianalytic models of galaxy formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The earth and the moon /Harold Jeffreys Lecture/.

The internal structures of the earth and the moon are compared in the light of the latest extensive data on the earth structure, mobility of the earth outer layers, and the properties of lunar crust. The Monte Carlo method is applied to develop an earth model by a stepwise process beginning with a random distribution of two elastic velocities and the density as a function of de pth. Lunar seismic, magnetic, and rock analysis data are used to infer the properties of the moon. The marked planetological contrast between the earth and the moon is shown to consist in that the earth is highly differentiated and still undergoes a large-scale differentiation, while the moon has lost its volatiles in its early history and has a cold dynamically inactive shell which has been without basic changes for three billion years.

Press, F.↗

Latitudinal distribution of a debris mantle on the Martian surface.

Mariner 9 narrow angle pictures show that many areas on Mars are buried by debris mantles that later have been partially eroded. A survey of the present debris distributions shows that they are symmetrically disposed about the polar regions, extending poleward from the 30 N and 30 S latitudes. These blankets are inferred to represent eolian debris derived from circumpolar layered deposits; the process of equatorward redistribution of debris by wind action is probably still continuing.

Soderblom, L. A.↗

Petrologic comparisons of Cayley and Descartes on the basis of Apollo 16 soils from stations 4 and 11

Petrologic aspects of the Cayley and Descartes formations are reviewed in the light of new data on Apollo 16 soils. Specific comparison of the modal abundances of lithic fragments in drive tube sample 64001/2 from the slopes of Stone Mountain (station 4) and in soil 67941 from the North Ray Crater rim (station 11) shows that melt rocks, especially poikilitic rocks, are more abundant at station 4 than at station 11; the reverse is true for fragmental breccias. Such lithologic differences suggest that stations 4 and 11 do not belong to the same geologic formation. Metamorphosed breccias are pervasive in both the formations and may represent a local component that has been reworked and diluted as fresh materials were added. Lithologic compositions inferred from the study of soil samples are different from lithologic compositions inferred from the study of rake samples or breccia clasts. This difference may be related to a mixing of material of different grain size distributions. The petrology of soils at the Apollo 16 site may not accurately reflect original material associated with either the Descartes or the Cayley formation because of extensive mixing with local material.

Basu, A.↗

Analysis of lightning field changes produced by Florida thunderstorms

A new method is introduced for inferring the charges deposited in a lightning flash. Lightning-caused field changes (delta E's) are described by a more general volume charge distribution than is defined on a large cartesian grid system centered above the measuring networks. It is shown that a linear system of equations can be used to relate delta E's at the ground to the values of charge on this grid. It is possible to apply more general physical constraints to the charge solutions, and it is possible to access the information content of the delta E data. Computer-simulated delta E inversions show that the location and symmetry of the charge retrievals are usually consistent with the known test sources.

Koshak, William John↗