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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

A Causal Approach to Integrate Component Health Data into System Reliability Models

Two of the challenges of current plant reliability approaches are the ability to integrate plant health data, and to support decision making. Condition based data and diagnostic/prognostic information are in fact not considered into plant reliability models to inform system engineers on the most critical components. Currently, the propagation of quantitative health data from the component to the system level is a challenge given the diverse nature/structure of the data. On the other hand, plant reliability methods (which are typically based on fault-trees or reliability block diagrams) can effectively propagate data from the component to the system level, but values of failure rates or failure probabilities are an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience, and it neglects the present component health status (e.g., diagnostic and condition-based data) and health projection (when available from prognostic data). Our first claim is that system reliability models should propagate health information from the component to the system/plant level in order to provide a quantitative snapshot of system/plant health and identify the most critical components. Our second claim is that component health should be informed solely by that specific component current and historical performance data and should not be an approximated integral representation of the past industry-wide operational experience. This paper is directly supporting these two claims by proposing a different approach to perform reliability modeling which relies on available component diagnostic, prognostic and condition-based data to measure component health, and it propagates this information through fault tree models. The propagation of health data from the component to the system level is performed not in terms of probability, but in terms of margins where margin is defined as the “distance” between the present actual status and an undesired event (e.g., failure or unacceptable performance). Through a cause-effect lens, while classical reliability models target the effect associated to a component performance, a margin-based approach focuses on the cause of an undesired component performance (i.e., component health). Hence, thinking of reliability in terms of margins implies decision making based on causal reasoning. We will show how fault tree models can be solved using a margin language and how this process can effectively assist system engineers to identify the most critical components.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

PyApprox: A software package for sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification and surrogate modeling

PyApprox is a Python-based one-stop-shop for probabilistic analysis of numerical models such as those used in the earth, environmental and engineering sciences. Easy to use and extendable tools are provided for constructing surrogates, sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, experimental design, and forward uncertainty quantification. The algorithms implemented represent a wide range of methods for model analysis developed over the past two decades, including recent advances in multi-fidelity approaches that use multiple model discretizations and/or simplified physics to significantly reduce the computational cost of various types of analyses. An extensive set of Benchmarks from the literature is also provided to facilitate the easy comparison of new or existing algorithms for a wide range of model analyses. Here, this paper introduces PyApprox and its various features, and presents results demonstrating the utility of PyApprox on a benchmark problem modeling the advection of a tracer in groundwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Projections for a Short-Term Release, CAP88 vs NARAC

The purpose of this study was to compare the projected dose using different plume models, evaluating a short duration release of tritium to the 16 compliance sectors and 4 additional points of interest using local meteorology. This report is written as guidance to the decision makers when reviewing this specific Gaussian plume model intended for radiological dose assessment and regulatory compliance, called CAP88 1 , as compared to a more-complex model designed for emergency response. The emergency response model, NARAC 2 , can be used to supplement the CAP88 compliance model evaluations, since NARAC is intended for use in situations where releases are shorter in duration and have increased complexity in terrain and meteorology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Possible Superconductivity with a Bogoliubov Fermi Surface in a Lightly Doped Kagome U(1) Spin Liquid

Whether the doped t-J model on the Kagome lattice supports exotic superconductivity has not been decisively answered. In this paper, we propose a new class of variational states for this model and perform large-scale variational Monte Carlo simulation on it. The proposed variational states are parameterized by the SU(2)-gauge-rotation angles, as the SU(2)-gauge structure hidden in the Gutzwiller-projected mean-field ansatz for the undoped model is broken upon doping. These variational doped states smoothly connect to the previously studied U(1) π-flux or 0-flux states, and energy minimization among them yields a chiral noncentrosymmetric nematic superconducting state with 2 × 2-enlarged unit cell. Moreover, this pair density wave state possesses a finite Fermi surface for the Bogoliubov quasi particles. We further study experimentally relevant properties of this intriguing pairing state.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Performance and Mass Modeling Subtleties in Closed-Brayton-Cycle Space Power Systems

A number of potential NASA missions could benefit from closed-Brayton-cycle (CBC) power conversion systems. The human and robotic mission power applications include spacecraft, surface base, and rover scenarios. Modeling of CBC subsystems allows system engineers, mission planners and project managers to make informed decisions regarding power conversion system characteristics and capabilities. To promote thorough modeling efforts, a critical review of CBC modeling techniques is presented. Analysis of critical modeling elements, component influences and cycle sensitivities is conducted. The analysis leads to quantitative results addressing projections on converter efficiency and overall power conversion system mass. Even moderate modeling errors are shown to easily over-predict converter efficiencies by 30 percent and underestimate mass estimates by 20 percent. Both static and dynamic modeling regimes are evaluated. Key considerations in determining model fidelity requirements are discussed. Conclusions and recommendations are presented that directly address ongoing modeling efforts in solar and nuclear space power systems.

Barrett, Michael J.↗

Performance and Mass Modeling Subtleties in Closed-Brayton-Cycle Space Power Systems

A number of potential NASA missions could benefit from closed-Brayton-cycle (CBC) power conversion systems. The human and robotic mission power applications include spacecraft, surface base, and rover scenarios. Modeling of CBC subsystems allows system engineers, mission planners and project managers to make informed decisions regarding power conversion system characteristics and capabilities. To promote thorough modeling efforts, a critical review of CBC modeling techniques is presented. Analysis of critical modeling elements, component influences and cycle sensitivities is conducted. The analysis leads to quantitative results addressing projections on converter efficiency and overall power conversion system mass. Even moderate modeling errors are shown to easily over-predict converter efficiencies by 30% and underestimate mass estimates by 20%. Both static and dynamic modeling regimes are evaluated. Key considerations in determining model fidelity requirements are discussed. Conclusions and recommendations are presented that directly address ongoing modeling efforts in solar and nuclear space power systems.

Barrett, Michael J.↗

Advanced Model for Extreme Lift and Improved Aeroacoustics (AMELIA)

With the very recent advent of NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project (ERA), which is dedicated to designing aircraft that will reduce the impact of aviation on the environment, there is a need for research and development of methodologies to minimize fuel burn, emissions, and reduce community noise produced by regional airliners. ERA tackles airframe technology, propulsion technology, and vehicle systems integration to meet performance objectives in the time frame for the aircraft to be at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 4-6 by the year of 2020 (deemed N+2). The proceeding project that investigated similar goals to ERA was NASA's Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW). SFW focused on conducting research to improve prediction methods and technologies that will produce lower noise, lower emissions, and higher performing subsonic aircraft for the Next Generation Air Transportation System. The work provided in this investigation was a NASA Research Announcement (NRA) contract #NNL07AA55C funded by Subsonic Fixed Wing. The project started in 2007 with a specific goal of conducting a large-scale wind tunnel test along with the development of new and improved predictive codes for the advanced powered-lift concepts. Many of the predictive codes were incorporated to refine the wind tunnel model outer mold line design. The large scale wind tunnel test goal was to investigate powered lift technologies and provide an experimental database to validate current and future modeling techniques. Powered-lift concepts investigated were Circulation Control (CC) wing in conjunction with over-the-wing mounted engines to entrain the exhaust to further increase the lift generated by CC technologies alone. The NRA was a five-year effort; during the first year the objective was to select and refine CESTOL concepts and then to complete a preliminary design of a large-scale wind tunnel model for the large scale test. During the second, third, and fourth years the large-scale wind tunnel model design would be completed, manufactured, and calibrated. During the fifth year the large scale wind tunnel test was conducted. This technical memo will describe all phases of the Advanced Model for Extreme Lift and Improved Aeroacoustics (AMELIA) project and provide a brief summary of the background and modeling efforts involved in the NRA. The conceptual designs considered for this project and the decision process for the selected configuration adapted for a wind tunnel model will be briefly discussed. The internal configuration of AMELIA, and the internal measurements chosen in order to satisfy the requirements of obtaining a database of experimental data to be used for future computational model validations. The external experimental techniques that were employed during the test, along with the large-scale wind tunnel test facility are covered in great detail. Experimental measurements in the database include forces and moments, and surface pressure distributions, local skin friction measurements, boundary and shear layer velocity profiles, far-field acoustic data and noise signatures from turbofan propulsion simulators. Results and discussion of the circulation control performance, over-the-wing mounted engines, and the combined performance are also discussed in great detail.

Subsonic Fixed Wing↗

Beginner's Guide to Understanding Power System Model Results for Long-Term Resource Plans

This presentation summarizes a recently published beginner's guide for understanding power system model results for long-term resource plans. This guide is designed to improve decision-making in the electricity planning process by strengthening dialogue between system planners and relevant stakeholders. It focuses on interpreting scenario results generated by power system planning models. These results are often used to inform integrated resource plans, which are long-term plans for a utility to meet future electricity requirements. Whether you are a state utility commissioner, commission staff, part of a state energy office, an intervenor in the planning process, or another stakeholder, this guide is designed to help you better weigh in on the modeling methods or interpret the model results to improve decision-making. This guide can enhance your understanding to ask the right questions, which can enable better understanding of results and key assumptions, data, and methods.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Jet classification using high-level features from anatomy of top jets

Recent advancements in deep learning models have significantly enhanced jet classification performance by analyzing low-level features (LLFs). However, this approach often leads to less interpretable models, emphasizing the need to understand the decision-making process and to identify the high-level features (HLFs) crucial for explaining jet classification. To address this, we consider the top jet tagging problems and introduce an analysis model (AM) that analyzes selected HLFs designed to capture important features of top jets. Our AM mainly consists of the following three modules: a relation network analyzing two-point energy correlations, mathematical morphology and Minkowski functionals for generalizing jet constituent multiplicities, and a recursive neural network analyzing subjet constituent multiplicity to enhance sensitivity to subjet color charges. We demonstrate that our AM achieves performance comparable to the Particle Transformer (ParT) while requiring fewer computational resources in a comparison of top jet tagging using jets simulated at the hadronic calorimeter angular resolution scale. Furthermore, as a more constrained architecture than ParT, the AM exhibits smaller training uncertainties because of the bias-variance tradeoff. We also compare the information content of AM and ParT by decorrelating the features already learned by AM. Lastly, we briefly comment on the results of AM with finer angular resolution inputs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Integration for Airborne Dust Prediction Systems and Vegetation Phenology to Track Pollen for Asthma Alerts in Public Health Decision Support Systems

The objective of the program is to assess the feasibility of combining a dust transport model with MODIS derived phenology to study pollen transport for integration with a public health decision support system. The use of pollen information has specifically be identified as a critical need by the New Mexico State Health department for inclusion in the Environmental Public Health Tracking (EPHT) program. Material and methods: Pollen can be transported great distances. Local observations of plan phenology may be consistent with the timing and source of pollen collected by pollen sampling instruments. The Dust REgional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) is an integrated modeling system designed to accurately describe the dust cycle in the atmosphere. The dust modules of the entire system incorporate the state of the art parameterization of all the major phases of the atmospheric dust life such as production, diffusion, advection, and removal. These modules also include effects of the particles size distribution on aerosol dispersion. The model was modified to use pollen sources instead of dust. Pollen release was estimated based on satellite-derived phenology of key plan species and vegetation communities. The MODIS surface reflectance product (MOD09) provided information on the start of the plant growing season, growth stage, and pollen release. The resulting deterministic model is useful for predicting and simulating pollen emission and downwind concentration to study details of phenology and meteorology and their dependencies. The proposed linkage in this project provided critical information on the location timing and modeled transport of pollen directly to the EPHT> This information is useful to support the centers for disease control and prevention (CDC)'s National EPHT and the state of New Mexico environmental public health decision support for asthma and allergies alerts.

Luvall, J. C.↗

Exascale Computing and Data Handling: Challenges and Opportunities for Weather and Climate Prediction

The emergence of exascale computing and artificial intelligence offer tremendous potential to significantly advance Earth system prediction capabilities. However, enormous challenges must be overcome to adapt models and prediction systems to use these new technologies effectively. A 2022 WMO report on exascale computing recommends “urgency in dedicating efforts and attention to disruptions associated with evolving computing technologies that will be increasingly difficult to overcome, threatening continued advancements in weather and climate prediction capabilities.” Further, the explosive growth in data from observations, model and ensemble output, and postprocessing threatens to overwhelm the ability to deliver timely, accurate, and precise information needed for decision-making. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers untapped opportunities to alter how models are developed, observations are processed, and predictions are analyzed and extracted for decision-making. Given the extraordinarily high cost of computing, growing complexity of prediction systems, and increasingly unmanageable amount of data being produced and consumed, these challenges are rapidly becoming too large for any single institution or country to handle. This paper describes key technical and budgetary challenges, identifies gaps and ways to address them, and makes a number of recommendations.

Atmosphere↗

Comprehensive Material Characterization and Simultaneous Model Calibration for Improved Computational Simulation Credibility

Computational simulation is increasingly relied upon for high-consequence engineering decisions, and a foundational element to solid mechanics simulations is a credible material model. Our ultimate vision is to interlace material characterization and model calibration in a real-time feedback loop, where the current model calibration results will drive the experiment to load regimes that add the most useful information to reduce parameter uncertainty. The current work investigated one key step to this Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC) paradigm, using a finite load-path tree to incorporate history/path dependency of nonlinear material models into a network of surrogate models that replace computationally-expensive finite-element analyses. Our reference simulation was an elastoplastic material point subject to biaxial deformation with a Hill anisotropic yield criterion. Training data was generated using either a space-filling or adaptive sampling method, and surrogates were built using either Gaussian process or polynomial chaos expansion methods. Surrogate error was evaluated to be on the order of 10 ⁻5 and 10 ⁻3 percent for the space-filling and adaptive sampling training data, respectively. Direct Bayesian inference was performed with the surrogate network and with the reference material point simulator, and results agreed to within 3 significant figures for the mean parameter values, with a reduction in computational cost over 5 orders of magnitude. These results bought down risk regarding the surrogate network and facilitated a successful FY22-24 full LDRD proposal to research and develop the complete ICC paradigm.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Decision support for United States—Canada energy integration is impaired by fragmentary environmental and electricity system modeling capacity

The renewable energy transition is leading to increased electricity trade between the United States and Canada, with Canadian hydropower providing firm lower-carbon power and buffering variability of wind and solar generation in the U.S. However, long-term power purchase agreements and transborder transmission projects are controversial, with two of four proposed transmission lines between Quebec, Canada and the northeast U.S. cancelled since 2018. Here, we argue that controversies are exacerbated by a lack of open-source data and tools to understand tradeoffs of new hydropower generation and transmission infrastructure in comparison to alternatives. This gap includes impacts that incremental transmission and generation projects have on the economics of the entire system, for example, how new transmission projects affect exports to existing markets or incentivize new generation. We identify priority areas for data synthesis and model development, such as integrating linked hydropower and hydrologic interactions in energy system models and openly releasing (by utilities) or back-calculating (by researchers) hydropower generation and operational parameters. Publicly available environmental (e.g. streamflow, precipitation) and techno-economic (e.g. costs, reservoir size,) data can be used to parameterize freely usable and extensible models. Existing models have been calibrated with operational data from Canadian utilities that are not publicly available, limiting the range of scientific and commercial questions these tools have been used to answer and the range of parties that have been involved. Studies conducted using highly resolved, national-scale public data exist in other countries, notably, the United States, and demonstrate how greater transparency and extensibility can drive industry action. Improved data availability in Canada could facilitate approaches that (1) increase participation in decarbonization planning by a broader range of actors; (2) allow independent characterizations of environmental, health, and economic outcomes of interest to the public; and (3) identify decarbonization pathways consistent with community values.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A Model-Based Systems Engineering Journey to Developing a Concept of Operations

Starting in 2017, NASA’s Human Research Program (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element began a systems engineering transition from traditional, document-centric development to model-centric development when defining its foundation medical systems. These foundation medical systems define a Concept of Operations (ConOps) and identify the generic requirements for a medical system based on assumptions about a generic crew and mission environments and guidance from NASA standards (e.g., Medical “Levels of Care”). By making the transition, ExMC intends to improve communication among stakeholders about foundation medical system requirements and content. In addition, this transition will enable ExMC to lower both development and crew treatment risks for future, mission-specific medical systems. ExMC followed a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) paradigm when developing the foundation medical systems. A model-based approach provides several advantages over a traditional, document-centric approach. First, when Systems Engineers (SE) develop diagrams in a model using a standard modeling language, they produce information dense pictures that facilitate understanding much more efficiently with less room for misinterpretation than text. Second, due to the evolving nature of projects, documentation becomes out of date the minute it is published. This can result in people making decisions based on information that is no longer current, especially if they are referencing a locally-stored copy of a document. A model, on the other hand, is always up to date with the latest approved changes and information. It serves as a single point of truth. Third, a model-centric approach centralizes all important information in one place. Rather than having to flip through separate ConOps documents, design specifications, requirements specifications, and the like to coordinate information, a model captures the content in one, integrated spot. This integration makes tracing information from end-to-end easier with greater reliability. The ExMC Systems Engineering Lifecycle follows a well-defined process. ExMC Systems Engineers perform all major steps of the process, regardless of the development methodology. One of the first steps in the process is developing the ConOps that describes the operation of the system from the point of view of the users. It includes a list of the users and their needs, the goals of the medical system, key assumptions about the system, and definitions of the medical system’s operational environments. For this development effort, ExMC chose to replace the traditional text-based ConOps document with a model. While the decision to change the development workflow was not difficult, implementing the structural and organizational workflows were. It required showing ExMC’s users, most of whom are not Systems Engineers, how the information they require would be presented in the model and to gain their acceptance of this approach. This paper documents key lessons learned during the ConOps transformation by focusing on how the model represents information, the agile workflow used by SEs when developing the model and how it integrates into a project plan, how leadership influenced key users to accept the transformation, and how the users interact with the model information.

Jeffrey Robert Cohen↗

Yes, No, Maybe So: Human Factors Considerations for Fostering Calibrated Trust in Foundation Models Under Uncertainty

High-stakes analytical environments require analysts to evaluate evidence and generate conclusions to inform critical decisions often under conditions of uncertainty. Probabilistic decision-making based on incomplete or inaccurate information can reduce productivity, compromise national interests, and endanger public safety. Researchers are developing expert systems built on foundation models (FMs) to support analysts’ decision-making processes by enabling human-artificial intelligence (AI) teaming, in part through the quantification and expression of uncertainty information. As FMs continue to mature, it is imperative to correspondingly consider analysts’ needs for appropriately interpreting and using uncertainty information. However, prior research indicates that it remains unclear how analysts engage with FM-generated uncertainty information and the extent to which these interactions influence trust in, and reliance on, expert systems. We plan to review the state of the science and conduct an exploratory, qualitative study to (a) understand how properly communicated uncertainty can foster calibrated trust and appropriate reliance and (b) identify approaches for effectively conveying FM-generated uncertainty information during analytical workflows. We will administer semi-structured interviews with analysts from a specific high-stakes analytical environment to collect their current experiences with job-related uncertainty and their impressions when viewing FM-generated uncertainty information. During the interview protocol, participants will be presented with several different FM outputs and invited to discuss their thoughts and beliefs about the uncertainty information displayed. Participants may provide insights into how trust and reliance may be influenced by uncertainty. The results of this study will help us to better understand how analysts currently interpret and use uncertainty information. Our findings may inform human factors recommendations for effectively conveying uncertainty information to foster calibrated trust in, and appropriate reliance on, expert systems. Interaction designers and FM developers can use this knowledge to enhance human-AI teaming and ensure the responsible deployment of FM-based expert systems in analytical workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗