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Group evaporation

Liquid fuel combustion process is greatly affected by the rate of droplet evaporation. The heat and mass exchanges between gas and liquid couple the dynamics of both phases in all aspects: mass, momentum, and energy. Correct prediction of the evaporation rate is therefore a key issue in engineering design of liquid combustion devices. Current analytical tools for characterizing the behavior of these devices are based on results from a single isolated droplet. Numerous experimental studies have challenged the applicability of these results in a dense spray. To account for the droplets' interaction in a dense spray, a number of theories have been developed in the past decade. Herein, two tasks are examined. One was to study how to implement the existing theoretical results, and the other was to explore the possibility of experimental verifications. The current theoretical results of group evaporation are given for a monodispersed cluster subject to adiabatic conditions. The time evolution of the fluid mechanic and thermodynamic behavior in this cluster is derived. The results given are not in the form of a subscale model for CFD codes.

Shen, Hayley H.↗

The influence of thermal inertia on temperatures and frost stability on Triton

It is presently argued, in view of (1) a thermal inertia model for the surface of Triton which (like previous ones) predicts a monotonic recession of permanent N2 deposits toward the poles and very little seasonal N2 frost in the southern hemisphere, and (2) new spectroscopic evidence for nonvolatile CO2 on Triton's bright southern hemisphere, that much of that bright southern material is not N2. Such bright southern hemisphere volatiles may allow the formation of seasonal frosts, thereby helping to explain the observed spectroscopic changes of Triton during the last decade.

Spencer, John R.↗

Performance Evaluation Tools for Next Generation Scalable Computing Platforms

The Federal High Performance and Communications (HPCC) Program continue to focus on R&D in a wide range of high performance computing and communications technologies. Using its accomplishments in the past four years as building blocks towards a Global Information Infrastructure (GII), an Implementation Plan that identifies six Strategic Focus Areas for R&D has been proposed. This white paper argues that a new generation of system software and programming tools must be developed to support these focus areas, so that the R&D we invest today can lead to technology pay-off a decade from now. The Global Computing Infrastructure (GCI) in the Year 2000 and Beyond would consists of thousands of powerful computing nodes connected via high-speed networks across the globe. Users will be able to obtain computing in formation services the GCI with the ease of using a plugging a toaster into the electrical outlet on the wall anywhere in the country. Developing and managing the GO requires performance prediction and monitoring capabilities that do not exist. Various accomplishments in this field today must be integrated and expanded to support this vision.

Yan, Jerry C.↗

Contributions of GRACE to Climate Monitoring

The NASA/German Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) was launched in March 2002. Rather than looking downward, GRACE continuously monitors the locations of and precise distance between twin satellites which orbit in tandem about 200 km apart. Variations in mass near Earth's surface cause heterogeneities in its gravity field, which in turn affect the orbits of satellites. Thus scientists can use GRACE data to map Earth's gravity field with enough accuracy to discern month to month changes caused by ocean circulation and redistribution of water stored on and in the land. Other gravitational influences, such as atmospheric circulation, post-glacial rebound, and solid earth movements are either independently determined and removed or are negligible on a monthly to sub-decadal timescale. Despite its coarse spatial (>150,000 sq km at mid-latitudes) and temporal (approx monthly) resolutions, GRACE has enabled significant advancements in the oceanic, hydrologic, and cryospheric science, and has great potential for climate monitoring, because it is the only global observing system able to measure ocean bottom pressures, total terrestrial water storage, and ice mass changes. The best known GRACE results are estimates of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet loss rates. Previously, scientists had estimated ice mass losses using ground and satellite based altimetry and surface mass balance estimates based on snowfall accumulation and glacier discharge. While such measurements are still very useful for their spatial detail, they are imperfectly correlated with large-scale ice mass changes, due to snow and ice compaction and incomplete spatial coverage. GRACE enables scientists to generate monthly time series of Greenland and Antarctic ice mass, which have confirmed the shrinking of the polar ice sheets, one of the most obvious and indisputable manifestations of climate change. Further, GRACE has located and quantified hot spots of ice loss in southeastern Greenland and western Antarctica. For 2002 to present, the rate of ice mass loss has been 200 to 300 GT/yr in Greenland and 70 to 210 GT/yr in Antarctica, and some scientists are suggesting that the rates are accelerating. Similarly, GRACE has been used to monitor mass changes in alpine glaciers. Tamisiea et al. first characterized glacier melt along the southern coast of Alaska, more recently estimated to be occurring at a rate of 84 GT/yr. Chen et al. estimated that Patagonian glaciers are melting at a rate of 28 GT/yr, and estimated that the high mountains of central Asia lose ice at a rate of 47 GT/yr. Tapley et al. and Wahr et al. presented the first GRACE based estimates of changes in column-integrated terrestrial water storage (TWS; the sum of ground-water, soil moisture, surface waters, snow, ice, and water stored in vegetation) at continental scales. Since then, dozens of studies have shown that GRACE based estimates of regional to continental scale TWS variations agree with independent information, and some innovative uses of GRACE data have been developed. Rodell et al. (2004) and Swenson and Wahr (2006) demonstrated that by combining GRACE derived terrestrial water storage changes with observations of precipitation and runoff in a river basin scale water budget, it was possible to produce new estimates of evapotranspiration and atmospheric moisture convergence, essential climate variables that are difficult to estimate accurately. Similarly, GRACE has been used to constrain estimates of global river discharge and the contribution of changes in TWS to sea level rise. Crowley et al. observed a negative correlation between interannual TWS anomalies in the Amazon and the Congo River basin. Yeh et al. and Rodell et al. estimated regionally averaged groundwater storage variations based on GRACE and auxiliary observations. Rodell et al. and Tiwari et al. applied that method to quantify massive groundwater depletion in northern India caused by over reliance on aquifers for irration, and Famiglietti et al. found a similar situation in California's Central Valley. Zaitchik et al. and Lo et al. described approaches to use GRACE to constrain hydrological models, enabling integration of GRACE data with other observations and achieving much higher spatial and temporal resolutions than GRACE alone. Such approaches are now supporting applications including drought and water resources monitoring. Oceanography has likewise benefitted from the independent nature of GRACE observations. One application is measurement of the mass component of sea level rise, which complements radar altimetry and in situ measurements. GRACE also measures ocean bottom pressures (OBP), which help to refine understanding and modeling of ocean circulation and the ocean's fresh water budget, among other things. For example, Hayakawa et al. showed that GRACE observes OBP patterns absent from the background models of oceanic variability. Morison et al. used GRACE to describe important decadal scale shifts in circulation and an ongoing trend of freshening of the western Arctic, important indicators of climate variability. The research of Song and Zlotnicki and Chambers and Willis on GRACE-derived ocean bottom pressures in the sub-polar gyre led to the discovery of an ENSO teleconnection and a long-term change in OBP in the North Pacific sub-polar gyre that was not predicted by an ocean model. Further, Chambers and Willis were able to identify an internal redistribution of mass between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans lasting at least six years, which was not predicted by ocean models and was the first direct evidence of sustained mass transport from one ocean basin to another on periods longer than a year. Boening et al. observed a record increase in OBP over part of the southeastern Pacific in late 2009 and early 2010, primarily caused by wind stress curl associated with a strong and persistent anticyclone and likely related to the concurrent Central Pacific El Nino. GRACE has far surpassed its 5-year design lifetime, but it will likely succumb to the aging of batteries and instrument systems sometime in the next few years. NASA has begun initial development of a follow-on to GRACE with very similar design, which could launch as soon as 2016 and would provide continuity in the data record while improving resolution slightly. Higher resolution time variable gravity missions are also on the drawing board .

Rodell, Matthew↗

Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought

Central Great Plains precipitation deficits during May-August 2012 were the most severe since at least 1895, eclipsing the Dust Bowl summers of 1934 and 1936. Drought developed suddenly in May, following near-normal precipitation during winter and early spring. Its proximate causes were a reduction in atmospheric moisture transport into the Great Plains from the Gulf of Mexico. Processes that generally provide air mass lift and condensation were mostly absent, including a lack of frontal cyclones in late spring followed by suppressed deep convection in summer owing to large-scale subsidence and atmospheric stabilization. Seasonal forecasts did not predict the summer 2012 central Great Plains drought development, which therefore arrived without early warning. Climate simulations and empirical analysis suggest that ocean surface temperatures together with changes in greenhouse gases did not induce a substantial reduction in summertime precipitation over the central Great Plains during 2012. Yet, diagnosis of the retrospective climate simulations also reveals a regime shift toward warmer and drier summertime Great Plains conditions during the recent decade, most probably due to natural decadal variability. As a consequence, the probability for severe summer Great Plains drought may have increased in the last decade compared to the 1980s and 1990s, and the so-called tail-risk for severe drought may have been heightened in summer 2012. Such an extreme drought event was nonetheless still found to be a rare occurrence within the spread of 2012 climate model simulations. Implications of this study's findings for U.S. seasonal drought forecasting are discussed.

Forecasts↗

Evaluation of Extreme Soil Moisture Conditions During the 2020 Sahel Floods and Implications for Disease Outbreaks

The June-October 2020 growing season was characterized by sustained and extreme flooding across the African Sahel. One consequence of flooding events such as this is outbreaks of vector borne diseases (VBDs) which are often associated with climate anomalies. In this study, data from the soil moisture active passive (SMAP) mission is used with other soil moisture and precipitation data to show that the 2020 Sahelian growing season was the most extreme over the past four decades, ranking first in seasonally accumulated precipitation, which on average exceeded the climatology by around 300 mm. VBD outbreaks of Rift Valley fever and Chikungunya followed in Mauritania/Senegal and Chad, respectively. In some cases, soil moisture is a better indicator of VBD outbreak risk than precipitation, which has so far been more commonly used in studies of VBD outbreaks. It is expected that this finding will inform future monitoring and prediction efforts for VBD risk.

Afrocam Saje;↗

Machine-Learning-Guided Insights into Solid-Electrolyte Interphase Conductivity: Are Amorphous Lithium Fluorophosphates the Key?

Despite decades of study, the identity of the dominant Li + -conducting phase within the inorganic SEI of Li-ion batteries remains unresolved. While the mosaic model describes LiF/Li 2 O/Li 2 CO 3 nanocrystallites within a disordered matrix, these crystalline phases inherently offer limited ionic conductivity. Growing evidence suggests that interfaces, grain boundaries, and amorphous phases may instead host the primary fast-ion pathways. Using diffusion-based generative structure prediction and machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs), we investigate lithium difluorophosphate (LiPO 2 F 2 ), a key mixed-anion decomposition product of phosphorus- and fluorine-containing electrolytes. We identify a stable crystalline polymorph and demonstrate that the amorphous counterpart is conductive, with projected room-temperature σ ≈ 0.18 mS cm –1 and E a ≈ 0.40 eV. Here, this enhancement stems from structural disorder flattening the Li site-energy landscape and a low formation energy for Li-interstitial defects, which supplies additional mobile carriers. We propose amorphous mixed-anion Li-P-O-F phases as a promising conducting medium in the SEI, offering a specific target for engineering improved battery interfaces.

Zhong, Peichen [University of California, Berkeley↗

Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached

Leveraging artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained on climate model output, we use the spatial pattern of historical temperature observations to predict the time until critical global warming thresholds are reached. Although no observations are used during the training, validation, or testing, the ANNs accurately predict the timing of historical global warming from maps of historical annual temperature. The central estimate for the 1.5 °C global warming threshold is between 2033 and 2035, including a ±1σ range of 2028 to 2039 in the Intermediate (SSP2-4.5) climate forcing scenario, consistent with previous assessments. However, our data-driven approach also suggests a substantial probability of exceeding the 2 °C threshold even in the Low (SSP1-2.6) climate forcing scenario. While there are limitations to our approach, our results suggest a higher likelihood of reaching 2 °C in the Low scenario than indicated in some previous assessments—though the possibility that 2 °C could be avoided is not ruled out. Explainable AI methods reveal that the ANNs focus on particular geographic regions to predict the time until the global threshold is reached. Our framework provides a unique, data-driven approach for quantifying the signal of climate change in historical observations and for constraining the uncertainty in climate model projections. Given the substantial existing evidence of accelerating risks to natural and human systems at 1.5 °C and 2 °C, our results provide further evidence for high-impact climate change over the next three decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurements at peak operational beam current in the SNS beam test facility

Work at the SNS beam test facility has focused on high dimensional and high dynamic range measurements of the medium energy (2.5 Mev) beam distribution. This is motivated by the need to understand and predict beam losses down to one-part-per-million. The initial demonstration of full-and-direct 6D phase space measurement was done at a current of 40 mA transported through the RFQ. Since that demonstration, more detailed studies have been performed at lower transported currents (in the range 30 mA and below). This is due to a hardware change - recent runs utilize the original SNS RFQ, which after a decade of service in the SNS achieves transmission significantly below design (50-60%, vs >80%). A short run in 2023 with a newly-commissioned RFQ enables maximum transmission. Preliminary results from beam distribution measurements during this run are discussed.

Ruisard, Kiersten↗

Quality Data Essential for Modeling Water Cycles Effectively

The experimental and observational data is the backbone of effective modeling of all aspects of water cycles. As the computer technology used for these data gathering efforts has improved dramatically in the recent decades, the environmental conditions these instruments are subjected to remain pretty much the same. These measuring instruments are exposed to the sun light, wind, rain, snow and ice; and they are immersed in dirt, water and mud. All of these are damaging to the electronics components used for data gathering, storage, and transmission, which creates many different kinds of data quality issues that affect the quality and reliability of modeling and prediction efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aeroacoustic research programs at the Army Aviation Research and Technology Activity

The Army rotorcraft aeroacoustic programs are reviewed, highlighting the theoretical and experimental progress made by Army researchers in the physical understanding of helicopter impulsive noise. The two impulsive noise sources addressed over this past decade are high-speed impulsive noise and blade-vortex interaction noise, both of which have had and will continue to have an increasing influence on Army rotorcraft design and operations. The advancements discussed are in the areas of in-flight data acquisition techniques, small-scale-model tests in wind tunnels, holographic interferometry/tomographic techniques, and the expanding capabilities of computational fluid dynamics in rotorcraft acoustic problems. Current theoretical prediction methods are compared with experimental data, and parameters that govern model scaling are established. The very successful cooperative efforts between the Army, NASA, and industry are also addressed

Yu, Yung H.↗

Determination of tidal h Love number parameters in the diurnal band using an extensive VLBI data set

We use over a decade of geodetic Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) data to estimate parameters in a resonance expansion of the frequency dependence of the tidal h(sub 2) Love number within the diurnal band. The resonance is associated with the retrograde free core nutation (RFCN). We obtain a value for the real part of the resonance strength of (-0.27 +/- 0.03) x 10(exp -3); a value of -0.19 x 10(exp -3) is predicted theoretically. Uncertainties in the VLBI estimates of the body tide radial displacement amplitudes are approximately 0.5 mm (1.1 mm for the K1 frequency), but they do not yield sufficiently small Love number uncertainties for placing useful constraints on the frequency of the RFCN, given the much smaller uncertainties obtained from independent analyses using nutation or gravimetric data. We also consider the imaginary part of the tidal h(sub 2) Love number. The estimated imaginary part of the resonance strength is (0.00 +/- 0.02) x 10(exp -3). The estimated imaginary part of the nonresonant component of the Love number implies a phase angle in the diurnal tidal response of the Earth of 0.7 deg +/- 0.5 deg (lag).

Mitrovica, J. X.↗

Kinetics of Fast Atoms in the Terrestrial Atmosphere

This report summarizes our investigations performed under NASA Grant NAG5-8058. The three-year research supported by the Geospace Sciences SR&T program (Ionospheric, Thermospheric, and Mesospheric Physics) has been designed to investigate fluxes of energetic oxygen and nitrogen atoms in the terrestrial thermosphere. Fast atoms are produced due to absorption of the solar radiation and due to coupling between the ionosphere and the neutral thermospheric gas. We have investigated the impact of hot oxygen and nitrogen atoms on the thermal balance, chemistry and radiation properties of the terrestrial thermosphere. Our calculations have been focused on the accurate quantitative description of the thermalization of O and N energetic atoms in collisions with atom and molecules of the ambient neutral gas. Upward fluxes of oxygen and nitrogen atoms, the rate of atmospheric heating by hot oxygen atoms, and the energy input into translational and rotational-vibrational degrees of atmospheric molecules have been evaluated. Altitude profiles of hot oxygen and nitrogen atoms have been analyzed and compared with available observational data. Energetic oxygen atoms in the terrestrial atmosphere have been investigated for decades, but insufficient information on the kinetics of fast atmospheric atoms has been a main obstacle for the interpretation of observational data and modeling of the hot geocorona. The recent development of accurate computational methods of the collisional kinetics is seen as an important step in the quantitative description of hot atoms in the thermosphere. Modeling of relaxation processes in the terrestrial atmosphere has incorporated data of recent observations, and theoretical predictions have been tested by new laboratory measurements.

Kharchenko, Vasili A.↗

Radar Measurements of Orbital Debris from the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR): 2020 to 2022

For over three decades, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has partnered with the U.S. Department of Defense and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL) to collect radar data on the orbital debris (OD) environment. These radar measurements are used to statistically measure cm and sub-cm debris in low Earth orbit (LEO) that is used to define the current debris environment, monitor how the environment evolves, and support predictions of the future debris environment. Currently, the principal ground-based radar sensor used by the ODPO is the MIT/LL Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR). HUSIR provides data on OD down to approximately 5 mm in size at altitudes below 1000 km. This paper will deliver an overview of recent HUSIR measurements of the LEO debris environment for calendar years 2020 to 2022. Process improvements will be highlighted along with results of interest, including the effects of the 15 November 2021 Russian direct ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) test on the defunct COSMOS 1408 spacecraft.

Jessica A. Arnold↗

A Deployable 4 Meter 180 to 680 GHz Antenna for the Scanning Microwave Limb Sounder

The Scanning Microwave Limb Sounder (SMLS) is a space-borne heterodyne radiometer which will measure pressure, temperature and atmospheric constituents from thermal emission between 180 and 680 GHz. SMLS, planned for the Global Atmospheric Composition Mission of the NRC Decadal Survey, uses a novel toric Cassegrain antenna to perform both elevation and azimuth scanning. These provide better horizontal and temporal resolution and coverage than were possible with elevation-only scanning at typical Low-Earth orbit spacing in the two previous MLS satellite instruments. Development of the SMLS antenna was the focus of a 2006 Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) program whose phase II culminated in the fabrication and thermal stability testing of a composite demonstration model of the SMLS primary reflector. This reflector has the full 4m height and 1/3 the width planned for flight. An Instrument Incubator Program (IIP) titled "A deployable 4 Meter 180 to 680 GHz antenna for the Scanning Microwave Limb Sounder" continues development of the SMLS antenna with the study of 5 topics: 1) detailed mathematical modeling of the antenna patterns from which we simulate geophysical parameter retrievals in order to establish FOV performance requirements; 2) thorough correlation of finite element model predictions with measurements made on the SBIR reflector. We will again measure deformations of this reflector, under more flight-like thermal gradients, using higher precision metrology techniques available in a new large-aperture facility at JPL; 3) fabrication of a full-width primary reflector whose asbuilt surface figure will better meet the figure requirements of SMLS than did the SBIR reflector; 4) integration of the primary with other reflectors, and with residual front ends built in a 2007 IIP, in a breadboard antenna; and finally 5) RF testing of the breadboard on a Near Field Range at JPL. We report on significant progress in 3 areas of the current IIP: development of the mathematical model to predict SMLS antenna patterns and their application in a preliminary set of geophysical retrievals; the correlation between surface deformation predicted by finite element models and measurement in the 2009 isothermal stability tests of the SBIR, with implications for the thermal gradient testing to be performed at JPL; and aspects of the conceptual design of the full-width primary reflector to be fabricated and tested in the 2nd and 3rd years of the IIP.

heterodyne radiometer↗

In-beam spectroscopy reveals competing nuclear shapes in the rare isotope 62 Cr

In recent decades, rareisotope facilities have enabled the study of short-lived, neutron-rich nuclei. Their measured properties indicate that shell structure changes in the regime of unbalanced neutron-to-proton ratios compared to that of stable nuclei. In the so-called islands of inversion in the nuclear chart – around the neutron-rich nuclei 32 Mg, 42 Si and 64 Cr, for example – the textbook shell-model picture predicts the presence of spherical shapes due to the respective magic neutron numbers of 20, 28, and 40 of these nuclei. However, nuclei in these regions turn out to be deformed in their ground states. Another hallmark of these islands is shape coexistence, where a nucleus assumes different shapes with excitation energy. Furthermore, we present evidence for this phenomenon from the observation of an excited 0 + state in 62 Cr, two neutrons away from the heart of the island of inversion around neutron number N = 40. We use large-scale shell-model calculations to interpret the results and report extrapolations for the doubly-magic nucleus 60 Ca.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Initial Jitter Analysis of Lynx, A Proposed Future Large Astrophysics Facility

Lynx, formerly known as the X-Ray surveyor, is one of the large strategic mission concepts being studied for input into the 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey. Lynx is the first future X-ray mission concept planning to match Chandra's angular-resolution and will combine this with very high throughput, large field of view, and high-resolution spectroscopy for point-like and extended sources. These ambitious performance requirements clearly merit early detailed engineering to demonstrate feasibility. An on-going structural dynamic analysis is being performed on the Lynx structural design to predict dynamic responses, jitter, to expected on-board vibrational disturbances. Applicable disturbance sources include a cryogenic pump, and six reaction wheels. The structural design, disturbances, analysis, and results are presented. Ultimately, responses will be compared to Lynx performance requirements as they relate to a system error budget.

Knight, J. Brent↗

Reconstructed Performance of the Mars InSight Lander’s Supersonic Parachute & Comparison with the Phoenix Lander

On November 26th, 2018 the Mars InSight landersuccessfully touched down at Elysium Planitia. InSight’s Entry,Descent, and Landing sequence included an 11.8-m supersonicallydeployed Disk-Gap-Band parachute that was a largelybuild-to-print version of the parachute used to successfully landthe Phoenix lander a decade earlier. This paper describes thereconstructed performance of InSight’s supersonic parachuteat Mars, highlighting the differences and similarities with theperformance of Phoenix’s parachute. Measurements from theonboard inertial measurement unit along with pre-launch measurementsof the parachute system and spacecraft, assumptionsabout the vehicle’s aerodynamics, and models for the Martianatmosphere were used to reconstruct the spacecraft’s trajectoryand the parachute system’s performance. The reconstruction resultswere compared against pre-flight predictions. Reconstructionof the InSight trajectory leading up to parachute deploymentshowed that the vehicle trimmed in a lift-down orientationduring entry and thus experienced greater deceleration thanexpected by most pre-flight simulations. This led to parachutedeployment conditions that diverged from the nominal preflightpredictions. The parachute was mortar-deployed at aMach number of approximately 1.5, below the nominal preflightexpectation of 1.66. The approximate dynamic pressureat mortar fire was between 518 Pa and 546 Pa, which agreedwell with pre-flight expectations. The mortar system performednominally, and the system’s deployment (0.755 s) and inflation(1.1 s) times were in line with pre-flight modeling. The peakinflation load was 45 kN, well below the parachute’s 67 kNdesign limit load. Following deployment of the parachute,the vehicle’s rotational rates and the dynamics of the systemwere in excellent agreement with pre-flight expectations. Theperformance of the InSight parachute system was also foundto agree well with that of the Phoenix parachute system, asexpected given the similarities between the two systems.

Karlgaard, Chris↗