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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Toward the Neutrino Discovery Platform: An Auditable, Uncertainty-Bearing Toolchain for MINERvA Open-Data Cross-Section Analysis

The Neutrino Discovery Platform (NDP) aims to accelerate DUNE-era science by making the neutrino program's existing datasets analyzable through fast, reproducible, and auditable workflows. We report a working version of two of its layers, data curation and agentic orchestration, built and tested end to end on MINERvA open data. The guiding lesson throughout is that a cross section is a measurement, and not just a plotted shape, only if it carries a defensible systematic-uncertainty budget, a trustworthy unfolding, and a reproducible record. Using a single medium-energy playlist pair from the MINERvA open-data release (about $2.05\times10^{17}$ protons on target of data), we first reproduced the shapes of two published charged-current inclusive $\nu_\mu$ measurements through a complete extraction ladder: selection, background subtraction, D'Agostini unfolding, efficiency correction, and flux normalization. These shape-level reproductions ran and tracked the published results, but they lacked the systematic-uncertainty machinery that defines a MINERvA cross section. To supply it, we vendored and built the MINERvA Analysis Toolkit and developed a many-universe systematic-uncertainty tool that produces a portable covariance artifact, a parallel event-loop runner, and a per-run auditability harness. Validated against a published covariance release, the toolchain reproduces the released statistical, flux, and muon-energy-scale terms and shows that they account for roughly 63\% of the total variance, with the remainder unreleased. Using this same infrastructure, we then performed a measurement of our own design, the hadronic recoil-energy distribution of low-energy ($E_\nu<2.5$~GeV) charged-current inclusive events, and found data/simulation shape agreement of $\chi^2/\mathrm{ndf}=1.26$. Together these results show that the platform supports original physics and not only reproductions.

Breaux, Auto [Tulane U. (main)]↗
DOE OSTI2022

Water use in a young Pinus taeda bioenergy plantation: Effect of intensive management on stand evapotranspiration

Abstract The increasing demand for plant‐derived bioenergy is projected to expand tree plantations with intensive silviculture and improved tree genetics. These silvicultural practices result in faster stand development and canopy closure, which may also influence the systems' water dynamics. Here, we studied the evapotranspiration (ET) of a young (5 years old) intensively managed loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda ) stand and investigated the components of ET to determine its contribution to overall water use. We also compared ET with plantations that received less intensive management to determine whether our stand used more water. We used the eddy covariance method to estimate ecosystem‐level total ET (ET EC ), while plot‐level estimates of ET (ET P ) were obtained via soil lysimeters, sap flow sensors, and throughfall collectors, enabling measurement of the components of ET. Soil evaporation (Es) was the largest component of ET P (36%) over the course of the study, while transpiration and canopy interception accounted for 27% and 22%, respectively. Es decreased with stand development, while transpiration and canopy interception increased. Leaf area index (LAI) and precipitation were the most significant factors controlling ET and its components. Compared to previous studies in different sites that have similar age but lower LAI, our stand had higher water use. This high water use in the early stages of stand development was primarily due to high Es before the canopy was fully developed. While there are potential sources of uncertainty when comparing ET EC and the component fluxes in ET P , results from the two methods were not significantly different. This study had the advantage of using multiple methods to understand and verify the component processes that contribute to ET. Therefore, we recommend that multiple measurement techniques be used in the long‐term observation of ET, and in particular for the evaluation of the impact that intensively managed forests have on water resources in the southeastern United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A proposed method for addressing large unphysical uncertainties in mubar

Mubar uncertainties in Section MF 34 MT 2 of ENDF/B-VIII.0 data are sometimes too large. Physical limitations of the bounds of mubar limit the maximum uncertainty to be < 1.0 and usually $\ll$ 1.0. Two ad hoc methods are proposed to artificially constrain the randomly sampled values of mubar to allowable values. The application of NJOY’s mubar covariance matrix to the “sandwich rule” is also discussed and a consistent way to apply sensitivity coefficients is described. Mubar uncertainties for the Jezebel k eff were found to be 156 pcm – a value comparable to other evaluated cross section uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Examining the peatland shrubification-evapotranspiration feedback following multi-decadal water table manipulation

Northern peatlands are globally important long-term sinks of carbon due to their predominantly saturated conditions. However, these ecosystems are expected to become drier with climate change, potentially leading to shrubification. As such, the response of the shrubification–evapotranspiration (ET) feedback may be of critical importance to future peatland energy, water and carbon dynamics. Here we examined the effect of multi-decadal peatland water table (WT) alteration at three adjacent sites with increasing depth to WT (WET, INTermediate, and DRY). In order to better understand the WT–shrubification–ET feedback, we measured peatland vegetation composition, microtopography and ET partitioning, where ET was measured at the ecosystem, microform, and leaf level using eddy covariance (EC), chambers and porometry, respectively. Averaged across microforms and WT treatments, there was a difference in the median measured leaf resistance (r leaf ) between plant functional types ranging from 213 s m -1 for erect dwarf shrubs, 325 s m -1 for graminoids/sedges, and 520 s m -1 for prostrate dwarf shrubs. Scaled based on LAI, the low r leaf of erect dwarf shrubs dominated hummocks, where sites with a higher proportion of hummocks had lower median canopy resistance (r v ) of 141, 133 and 130 s m -1 at the WET, INT and DRY sites respectively. Nevertheless, ET was highest at the WET site and similar between the INT and DRY sites, with greater evaporation from the moss surface at the WET site. Porometry and EC data along with a three-source model were used to independently assess the evaporative contribution from the moss surface, which ranged from 17% to 40%. For moderate and persistent changes in WT from land-use or climate change, our results suggest vegetation succession is minimal, but the microtopographic development and the concomitant differences in LAI for the various plant functional types is key to understanding changes in total ET and partitioning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Atmospheric humidity deficits tell us how soil moisture deficits down-regulate ecosystem evaporation

Knowing how actual evaporation is down-regulated from potential evaporation during periods with soil moisture deficits is one of the greatest challenges towards computing evaporation everywhere on a regular basis. We propose the hypothesis that vegetated landscapes transmit information on soil moisture deficits through its down-regulation of evaporation, which in turn affects the humidification and growth of the planetary boundary layer. To test this hypothesis, here, we examined how the evaporative fraction, defined as the ratio between actual and potential evaporation, corresponds with the soil moisture stress index, defined as the relative humidity with a power law dependence on vapor pressure deficit times a parameter, β. We tested the parameterized soil moisture stress index with direct eddy covariance measurements of actual evaporation and computations of potential evaporation based on meteorological conditions, averaged on monthly time steps. The analysis was conducted on a dataset obtained from 144 FLUXNET sites. These sites spanned much of the world's climates and biomes and contained over 5900 months of observations. Observations of the evaporative fraction fit the model of the soil moisture stress index best for semi-arid and arid ecosystems, and least for the humid and wet ecosystems. Consequently, a significant relationship between measurements of the evaporative fraction and soil moisture stress index held for about one-half of the population of sites. Under this condition, the median value of the parameter, β, was 1.41. To investigate the mechanism of this empirical soil moisture stress index, we diagnosed it with a coupled evaporation-planetary boundary layer model. The soil moisture stress index is strongly related to surface resistance, as defined by inverting Penman-Monteith equation. Consequently, this index provides an independent estimate of surface resistance based on easy to measure mean monthly weather conditions like relative humidity and temperature. Thereby, this soil moisture stress index has potential to be applied to weather, climate and biogeochemical models and the interpretation of satellite derived evaporation products, like the one provided by the ECOSTRESS mission.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Contrasting carbon dynamics in grazed and flood-prone grasslands on mineral and degraded peat soils

Ecosystem-scale methane (CH₄) flux measurements from grazed grasslands remain scarce, despite their importance for understanding grassland contributions to the global carbon budget. In this study, we present full annual budgets of both carbon dioxide (CO₂) and CH₄ derived from eddy covariance measurements at two contrasting grazed grasslands: a floodplain grassland at Marchegg, Austria, and an intensively grazed pasture at Sherman Barn, California. By combining continuous, year-round observations of CO₂ and CH₄, this study provides a rare, comparative assessment of greenhouse gas dynamics across distinct climatic, hydrological, and management regimes. Our results highlight how environmental conditions, grazing intensity, and hydrology jointly regulate CO₂ exchange and CH₄ emissions, underscoring the importance of including methane alongside net ecosystem exchange when evaluating grassland carbon balances. At Marchegg, characterized by seasonal flooding and moderate horse grazing on mineral soils, the ecosystem acted as a weak carbon sink in 2024, with a GWP 100 of 42.2 ± 113.4 g CO₂ eq m⁻². Net CO₂ uptake (–27.3 ± 30.2 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹) was partly offset by CH₄ emissions (1.6 ± 0.04 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹), which were strongly linked to soil moisture and inundation events. In contrast, Sherman Barn, a cattle pasture on degraded peat soils, was a consistent carbon source in 2019, with a GWP 100 of 567.6 ± 120.5 g CO₂ eq m⁻², associated with high ecosystem respiration during summer. The site released 125.3 ± 32.2 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ of CO₂ and 3 ± 0.06 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ of CH₄. Across both sites, net ecosystem exchange was primarily linked to photosynthetically active radiation and vegetation greenness, while CH₄ fluxes were related to soil moisture rather than grazing intensity. Flooding at Marchegg reduced CO₂ uptake but enhanced CH₄ emissions, highlighting the critical role of flood timing within the growing season. Moreover, inundation appeared to suppress the spread of invasive plant species, emphasizing the ecological value of dynamic hydrological regimes. Together, these findings reveal the complexity of grassland carbon budgets and the need for site-specific, year-round CO₂ and CH₄ monitoring to inform climate-adaptive management strategies.

Carbon sequestration↗
DOE OSTI2020

Geospatial coherence of surface-atmosphere fluxes in the upper Great Lakes region

Surface-atmosphere fluxes are known to vary at multiple time scales, but uncertainty is high as to how fluxes change spatially within regions. With an increase in the number of eddy covariance towers, we are now able to examine the geospatial coherence of ecosystem fluxes, using time-series correlation. Eighteen sites from Michigan and Wisconsin were used in this study, ranging from 100 m to 600 km apart. Surface-atmosphere fluxes from a six-month period were used to quantify spatial coherence on a pair-wise basis. Using geospatial statistics, carbon and sensible heat (H) fluxes were found to be 95% correlated directly outside of their flux footprint and 56% correlated up to a distance of ~35 km. Latent (LE) and momentum (τ) fluxes were less correlated, 83% directly outside of their flux footprint and 40% at a distance of ~130 km albeit, at a much larger spatial distance than for the carbon and sensible heat fluxes. All fluxes showed strong spectral resonance at diel and seasonal timescales, with 1-, 2- and 3-month periods being common modes of variability among H, LE, and τ fluxes. Results based on Empirical Orthogonal Function show distinct transitions of net ecosystem exchange from fall to winter before photosynthesis or respiration while H and τ do not exhibit coherent trends. Here, this work demonstrates the potential of quantifying geospatial coherence of surface-atmosphere fluxes in the Midwestern United States, with the ability to predict fluxes beyond the spatial limit of a single flux tower footprint. Ultimately, expanding the flux measurements to larger scales would allow better spatial scaling of terrestrial surface-atmosphere fluxes between tower footprint and modeling or remote sensing scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A micrometeorological flux perspective on brush management in a shrub-encroached Sonoran Desert grassland

Woody plant encroachment typically limits the forage productivity of managed rangelands and alters a panoply of semiarid ecosystem processes and services. Intervention strategies to reduce woody plant abundance, collectively termed “brush management”, often lack observations to quantify and interpret changes in ecosystem processes. Furthermore, comparative studies between treated and untreated areas should account for heterogeneity since plant composition, microclimate, topoedaphic factors, and historical land use can substantially vary over short distances in drylands. Here, in this work, we quantify ecosystem responses to brush management after a single aerial herbicide application on an 18 hectare shrub-encroached grassland (savanna) in southern Arizona, USA. We conducted a pre- and post-treatment comparison of a flux tower site in the treated area with that of a tower in a nearby control site. The comparison, spanning a seven year period, included: (1) ground, airborne, and satellite-based measurements of vegetation structure, and (2) eddy covariance measurements. The herbicide treatment defoliated the dominant shrub (velvet mesquite, Prosopis velutina) and led to a temporary reduction in summer greening, but full foliar recovery occurred within two years. Contrary to expectations, perennial grass cover decreased and bare soil cover increased on the treated site. Relative amounts of evapotranspiration were reduced, while carbon uptake increased during the 2 year post-treatment period at the treated site due to a higher water use efficiency in the following spring. During mesquite recovery, carbon uptake was enhanced by higher gross primary productivity and accompanied by a decrease in ecosystem respiration relative to the untreated site. Mesquite recovery was facilitated by access to deep soil water, carbohydrate reserves in rooting systems, and a lower competition from reduced perennial grass cover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gross primary production (GPP) and red solar induced fluorescence (SIF) respond differently to light and seasonal environmental conditions in a subalpine conifer forest

The phenology of montane conifer forests is likely to shift in response to climate change and altered seasonal dynamics of light, temperature, and moisture. Solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) is expected to provide substantial improvement for mapping temporal changes in evergreen gross primary production (GPP) over greenness-based remote sensing indices. The utility of SIF to monitor seasonal changes in the phenology of conifer photosynthesis depends on the degree to which GPP and SIF respond in synchrony to key environmental drivers. However, to what extent SIF and GPP become decoupled by responding differently to the combined effects of light and other environmental conditions remains unknown. The goal of this study was to characterize the responses of GPP and SIFred to a suite of environmental drivers at the half-hour time scale and determine how these relationships change across seasons. We analyzed one year of tower-based SIFred and eddy covariance-derived GPP data from a conifer forest at Niwot Ridge, Colorado. We compared the light responses of GPP and SIFred across the year, finding that SIFred increased in response to light earlier in the year than did GPP. The light response of GPP had a positive temperature dependence in spring, and this dependency reversed in summer due to increased evaporative demand, while the light response of SIFred was less temperature dependent. Using artificial neural network ensemble analysis, we found that from spring to summer, SIFred did not exhibit a parallel response to the seasonally dynamic temperature and moisture controls on GPP. In summer SIFred was not correlated with canopy conductance, suggesting that SIF is less sensitive to stomatal control than GPP. Furthermore, our results suggest that, in conifers, photosystems begin to activate in spring prior to when water becomes available for photosynthesis, presenting a challenge for the use of SIF as a phenological indicator in conifer forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

What explains the year-to-year variation in growing season timing of boreal black spruce forests?

Amplified climate warming in high latitudes is expected to affect growing season timing of the vast boreal biome. It is unclear whether the presence of permafrost (perennially frozen ground) might have an influence on changes in growing season timing. Here, this study examined how different environmental variables explained, either directly or indirectly, the variation in growing season timing of boreal forest stands with and without permafrost. We expected that environmental variables explaining the variation in growing season timing differed or had different explanatory power depending on permafrost presence or absence. The growing season was delineated from daily gross primary productivity (GPP) time series derived from 40 site-year data of net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange measured with eddy covariance techniques over five black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.])-dominated boreal forest stands in North America. In permafrost-free forest stands, a combination of start in canopy ‘green-up’ in spring and the timing of air and soil temperature increasing above freezing explained the start-of-season (SOS GPP ). Results from commonality analysis and structural equation modeling suggest that canopy ‘green-up’ and air temperature directly affected SOS GPP in permafrost-free forest stands. In addition, soil temperature acted as mediator for an indirect effect of air temperature on SOS GPP . In contrast, none of the environmental variables, or their combination, explained the variation in SOS GPP in forest stands with permafrost. The explanatory power of environmental variables was more consistent regarding the end-of-season (EOS GPP ). In both, forest stands with and without permafrost, EOS GPP was directly explained by mean soil water content in the fall and the first day of continuous snowpack formation. A better understanding how environmental variables control SOS GPP and EOS GPP in forest stands with and without permafrost will help to refine parameterizations of the boreal biome in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Causality guided machine learning model on wetland CH 4 emissions across global wetlands

Wetland CH 4 emissions are among the most uncertain components of the global CH 4 budget. The complex nature of wetland CH 4 processes makes it challenging to identify causal relationships for improving our understanding and predictability of CH 4 emissions. In this study, we used the flux measurements of CH 4 from eddy covariance towers (30 sites from 4 wetlands types: bog, fen, marsh, and wet tundra) to construct a causality-constrained machine learning (ML) framework to explain the regulative factors and to capture CH 4 emissions at sub-seasonal scale. We found that soil temperature is the dominant factor for CH 4 emissions in all studied wetland types. Ecosystem respiration (CO 2 ) and gross primary productivity exert controls at bog, fen, and marsh sites with lagged responses of days to weeks. Integrating these asynchronous environmental and biological causal relationships in predictive models significantly improved model performance. More importantly, modeled CH 4 emissions differed by up to a factor of 4 under a +1°C warming scenario when causality constraints were considered. These results highlight the significant role of causality in modeling wetland CH 4 emissions especially under future warming conditions, while traditional data-driven ML models may reproduce observations for the wrong reasons. Our proposed causality-guided model could benefit predictive modeling, large-scale upscaling, data gap-filling, and surrogate modeling of wetland CH 4 emissions within earth system land models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Benchmark Eddy Flux Evapotranspiration Dataset for Evaluation of Satellite-Driven Evapotranspiration Models Over the CONUS

A large sample of ground-based evapotranspiration (ET) measurements made in the United States, primarily from eddy covariance systems, were post-processed to produce a benchmark ET dataset. The dataset was produced primarily to support the intercomparison and evaluation of the OpenET satellite-based remote sensing ET (RSET) models and could also be used to evaluate ET data from other models and approaches. OpenET is a web-based service that makes field-delineated and pixel-level ET estimates from well-established RSET models readily available to water managers, agricultural producers, and the public. The benchmark dataset is composed of flux and meteorological data from a variety of providers covering native vegetation and agricultural settings. Flux footprint predictions were developed for each station and included static flux footprints developed based on average wind direction and speed, as well as dynamic hourly footprints that were generated with a physically based model of upwind source area. The two footprint prediction methods were rigorously compared to evaluate their relative spatial coverage. Data from all sources were post-processed in a consistent and reproducible manner including data handling, gap-filling, temporal aggregation, and energy balance closure correction. The resulting dataset included 243,048 daily and 5,284 monthly ET values from 194 stations, with all data falling between 1995 and 2021. We assessed average daily energy imbalance using 172 flux sites with a total of 193,021 days of data, finding that overall turbulent fluxes were understated by about 12% on average relative to available energy. Multiple linear regression analyses indicated that daily average latent energy flux may be typically understated slightly more than sensible heat flux. This dataset was developed to provide a consistent reference to support evaluation of RSET data being developed for a wide range of applications related to water accounting and water resources management at field to watershed scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Merging flux-variance with surface renewal methods in the roughness sublayer and the atmospheric surface layer

In this article, Two micrometeorological methods utilizing high-frequency sampled air temperature were tested against eddy covariance (EC) sensible heat flux (𝐻) measurements at three sites representing agricultural, agro-forestry, and forestry systems. The two methods cover conventional and newly proposed forms of the flux-variance (FV) and surface renewal (SR) schemes of differing complexities. The sites represent measurements in surface, roughness, and roughness to surface transitional layers. Regression analyzes against EC show that the most reliable FV and SR forms estimate 𝐻 with slopes within ±10% from unity and coefficient of determination 𝑅2 > 0.9 across all the three sites. The best performance of both FV and SR was found at the agricultural site with measurements well within the surface layer, while the worst was found for the tall forest with measurements within the roughness sublayer where its thickness needed to be additionally estimated. The main variable driving 𝐻 in FV is the temperature variance, whereas in SR, it is the geometry of ramp-like structures. Since these structures are also responsible for most of the temperature variance, a novel FV-SR approach emerging from combining the methods is proposed and evaluated against EC measurements and conventional FV and SR schemes. The proposed FV-SR approach requiring only a single fast response thermocouple is potentially independent of calibration and ameliorates some of the theoretical objections that arise when combining ramp statistics with similarity arguments. The combination of methods also provides new insights into the contribution of coherent structures to the temperature variance and its dependence on atmospheric stratification. Other potential utility of the new method is to include it in multi-tool assessments of surface energy fluxes, since a convergence or divergence of the results has a high diagnostic value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reviving the carbon sink: The influence of moderate wind disturbance in a secondary temperate mixed forest

Global forests are increasingly exposed to climate-driven perturbations, which may in turn alter their climate mitigation potential. As tropical cyclones expand poleward due to climate warming, wind disturbances in temperate forests have become increasingly frequent. The consequences of moderate wind disturbances remain poorly understood, hindering efforts to quantify their role in the global carbon cycle. Here, we used 16 years of continuous eddy covariance and biometric measurements to investigate the impacts of moderate wind disturbances on the structure and carbon sink dynamics of a temperate forest in Northeast China. Following Typhoon Maysak in 2020, the mortality of large trees (particularly the aging pioneer species) increased ninefold, whereas that of small trees decreased by nearly half. Both stand basal area and leaf area index were reduced between 2019 and 2023, with aging pioneer tree species being more vulnerable than mid-to-late species to wind disturbances. Shifts in species composition altered the environmental sensitivity of forest carbon sink function. Unexpectedly, wind disturbances reversed the declining trends in net ecosystem production and ecosystem carbon use efficiency of this secondary forest. A novel composite structural indicator—the standardized leaf area index (the maximum leaf area supported by per basal area of the stand)—provided robust predictions (R 2 > 0.4) of carbon sink dynamics throughout the study period. The selective removal of less efficient pioneer trees accelerated succession and reversed the aging-related decline in forest carbon sink strength and carbon use efficiency. In conclusion, these findings highlight the potential role of moderate wind disturbances in enhancing forest carbon sink function and offer a framework for understanding, assessing, and predicting forest carbon dynamics under increasing disturbance frequencies driven by climate change.

Carbon sink↗
DOE OSTI2025

A tale of two towers: comparing NEON and AmeriFlux data streams at Bartlett Experimental Forest

Long-term ecological data are essential for detecting impacts of climate change and other global change factors, and for making informed predictions about future change. However, long-term measurements are rarely replicated at the site level, which raises questions about their representativeness. We used a multiscale approach to evaluate the agreement of parallel observations from AmeriFlux and NEON (National Ecological Observatory Network) towers at Bartlett Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA. The two towers are separated by a horizontal distance of 93 m. Here, we focused our analysis on standard meteorological variables; fluxes of CO 2 , sensible heat, and latent heat measured by eddy covariance; and phenology derived from PhenoCam imagery. Results suggest excellent agreement between AmeriFlux and NEON in meteorology and phenology, and good agreement in fluxes at the half-hourly scale. However, large disagreements in CO 2 and latent heat fluxes occurred at the annual scale, with implications especially for the forest carbon balance. The AmeriFlux tower measurements indicate a site that is close to carbon-neutral (-8 ± 65 g C m -2 y -1 , mean ± 1 SD), whereas the NEON tower measurements indicate a forest that is a carbon sink (-137 ± 10 g C m -2 y -1 ). Causes of this disagreement may include measurement height (26 m vs. 35 m), which resulted in different flux footprints being measured by the two towers, and differences in the flux measurement systems. Our results suggest the need for caution when attempting to merge long-term flux data from two different measurement platforms, and when using measurements from any one measurement platform to inform decision-making on issues related to carbon accounting or natural climate solutions.

Carbon cycle↗
DOE OSTI2026

The productivity of perennial crops miscanthus and switchgrass is more resistant to vapor pressure deficit stress than maize

Rising atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (D) with warming is an increasingly important driver of crop productivity loss, yet the relative sensitivity of conventional seed crops and alternative perennial crops remains poorly resolved. In this study, we combined a 9-year eddy covariance carbon flux record (2008 – 2016) with 600+ midday leaf water potential (ψ L ) measurements (2024 – 2025) from adjacent maize (Zea mays), miscanthus (Miscanthus x giganteus), and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) plots to: (1) quantify the limitations of elevated D on crop-specific productivity and (2) evaluate how these responses vary as a function of soil moisture (Θ) status. We found that maize strictly regulated ψ L and its gross primary productivity (GPP) was strongly reduced by increasing D. In contrast, miscanthus and switchgrass allowed larger ψ L declines and sustained higher GPP under similar moisture constraints. D exerted a larger limitation on maize GPP than Θ, but D-driven declines were less severe when accompanied by high Θ. GPP sensitivity to D was also influenced by Θ for miscanthus and switchgrass, but the buffering effect was stronger compared to maize. Specifically, high D paired with high Θ were the most productive conditions for the perennials, reflecting temperature-driven gains in photosynthetic efficiency when evaporative stress was mitigated by sufficient soil water supply. Overall, miscanthus and switchgrass displayed greater resistance to atmospheric drought and more stable GPP across hydroclimate variability than maize. These findings highlight that maize is more vulnerable to future projections of rising D than miscanthus or switchgrass.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2026

Interactive effects of precipitation, temperature, and grazing pressure on the net ecosystem carbon balance of grazing lands across the continental United States

Grazing lands cover approximately one-third of the contiguous United States, support much of the nation's beef production, and are an important component of the U.S. terrestrial carbon budget. In this study, we quantified net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB), the net status of grazing lands as a carbon sink (C-sink) or source (C-source) and a key determinant of soil health and productivity. Our primary objective was to synthesize multiple years of annual NECB across heterogeneous grazing lands across the continental U.S and evaluate annual NECB against physical drivers (mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean annual temperature (MAT), vegetation, and moisture condition) and management practices (grazing pressure index (GPI) and fertilization history). We hypothesized that (1) NECB is higher in mesic and fertilized grasslands; (2) NECB increases with MAP and MAT but decreases with GPI; and (3) interactive effects exist among MAP, MAT, and GPI. Using carbon fluxes measured by eddy covariance towers and methane emissions including both enteric methane and manure derived from stocking rates across seven USDA Long-term Agroecosystem Research Network sites, we found: (1) grazing lands were a C-sink or carbon neutral at most sites; (2) vegetation type, moisture conditions, or fertilization had no significant effect on NECB; (3) NECB increased with MAP and MAT, but decreased with a higher GPI; and (4) MAT had a significant positive effect on NECB when MAP exceeded 750 mm (greater water availability). The effect of GPI on NECB was significantly negative when MAP was below 1000 mm, significantly negative when MAT < 12 °C and significantly positive when MAT > 16 °C. Thus, most grazing lands in our study acted as C-sinks unless water deficit, low temperature, or heavy grazing were interactively present. Understanding how climate and management influence NECB of grazing lands is key to maintaining resilient agroecosystems that secure beef production and sustain rural prosperity.

LTAR↗
DOE OSTI2021

TROPOMI observations allow for robust exploration of the relationship between solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and terrestrial gross primary production

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) observed by satellites has advanced the monitoring of terrestrial photosynthesis regionally and globally. The relationship between SIF and gross primary production (GPP) at leaf, canopy, and ecosystem scales has received tremendous attention in recent years. It remains controversial whether the SIF-GPP relationship at the ecosystem scale is universal or dependent upon vegetation type. New SIF observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) with unprecedented high spatial and temporal resolution provide a new opportunity to elucidate the SIF-GPP relationship. Here, we examine the SIF-GPP relationship for seven major vegetation types across the U.S. with TROPOMI SIF and in-situ GPP data for 83 eddy covariance flux sites. We find that TROPOMI SIF shows a strong and consistent relationship with tower-based GPP at both satellite footprint and grid-cell levels. The slope of the SIF-GPP relationship is similar among all the vegetation types except croplands, demonstrating a nearly universal (converging to ~13.5 g C m -2 d -1 /W m -2 μm -1 sr -1) rather than vegetation type-specific SIF-GPP relationship. This confirms that TROPOMI SIF can be used as a proxy for GPP across a wide variety of vegetation types and can also be used to quantify GPP by avoiding uncertainty associated with land cover maps. The C 4 crops have a much higher slope than the C 3 crops, and therefore croplands tend to have a higher slope than C 3 -dominated vegetation types (e.g., forests, shrublands, savannas). We also find that the TROPOMI SIF is well correlated with GPP under normal or wetter conditions, while their relationship becomes weaker under water stress. In conclusion, our TROPOMI-based study could improve our understanding of the SIF-GPP relationship at the ecosystem scale and advance the mapping of GPP globally with SIF observations from space.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗