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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Debris Disk Structure and Morphology as Revealed by Aggressive STIS Multi-Roll Coronagraphy: A New Look at Some Old Friends

We present new imaging results from a well-selected sample of II circumstellar debris disks, all with HST pedigree, using STIS visible-light 6-roll PSF-template subtracted coronagraphy (PSFTSC). These new observations, pushing HST to its highest levels of coronagraphic performance, simultaneously probe both the interior regions of these debris systems, with inner working distances < app 8 AU for half the stars in this sample (corresponding to the giant planet and Kuiper belt regions within our own solar system), and the exterior regions far beyond. These new images enable direct inter-comparison of the architectures of these exoplanetary debris systems in the context of our own Solar System: These observations also permit us, for the first time, to characterize material in these regions at high spatial resolution and identify disk sub-structures that are signposts of planet formation and evolution; in particular, asymmetries and non-uniform debris structures that signal the presence of co-orbiting perturbing planets, and dynamical interactions (e.g., resulting in posited small grain stripping and disk "pollution") with the ISM. We focus here on recently acquired and reduced images of he circumstellar debris systems about: AU Mic (edge-on, and @ 10 pc the closest star in our sample), HD 61005, HD 32297 and HD 15115 (all with morphologies strongly suggestive of ISM wind interactions), HD 181327 & HDI07146 (close to face-on with respectively narrow and broad debris rings), and MP Mus (a "mature" proto-planetary disk hosted by a cTTS). All of our objects were previously observed in the near-IR with inferior spatial resolution and imaging efficacy, but with NICMOS r = 0.3" inner working angle (IWA) comparable to STIS multi-roll coronagraphy. The combination of new optical and existing near-IR imaging can strongly constrain the dust properties, thus enabling an assessment of grain processing and planetesimal populations. These results will directly inform upon the posited planet formation mechanisms that occur after the approximately 10 My epoch of gas depletion, a time in our solar system when giant planets were migrating and terrestrial planets were forming, and directly test theoretical models of these processes. These observations lmiquely probe both into the interior regions of these systems and are sensitive to and spatially resolve low surface-brightness (SB) material at large stellocentric distances with spatial resolution comparable to ACS and with augmenting NICMOS near-IR disk photometry in hand.

Grady, Carol A↗

Joint thrust and TMD resummation in electron-positron and electron-proton collisions

In this work, we present the framework for obtaining precise predictions for the transverse momentum of hadrons with respect to the thrust axis in e + e - collisions. This will enable a precise extraction of transverse momentum dependent (TMD) fragmentation functions from a recent measurement by the Belle Collaboration. Our analysis takes into account, for the first time, the nontrivial interplay between the hadron transverse momentum and the cut on the thrust event shape. To this end, we identify three different kinematic regions, derive the corresponding factorization theorems within Soft Collinear Effective Theory, and present all ingredients needed for the joint resummation of the transverse momentum and thrust spectrum at NNLL accuracy. One kinematic region can give rise to non-global logarithms (NGLs), and we describe how to include the leading NGLs. We also discuss alternative measurements in e + e - collisions that can be used to access the TMD fragmentation function. Finally, by using crossing symmetry, we obtain a new way to constrain TMD parton distributions, by measuring the displacement of the thrust axis in ep collisions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Interactions of Wind Energy Project Siting, Wind Resource Potential, and the Evolution of the U.S. Power System

The interactions of wind energy project siting, resource potential, and power system evolution are critical to understand given interest in high renewable energy systems, particularly as wind costs have fallen and grid operators implement solutions to manage variable generation. This study applies an integrative approach that combines spatially-explicit resource potential analysis with high spatial resolution U.S. electricity system modeling. Multiple wind supply curves, representing variations in siting regimes that account for interactions with built infrastructure, regulatory, physical, and social land use factors, are evaluated to determine how siting could influence prospective wind development. Different siting regimes lead to variations in future wind capacity, with the greatest impacts observed under scenarios with high demand for clean energy. With the tightest emissions limit modeled, 2050 onshore wind capacity varied by +7% (49 GW) in the least-restrictive siting regime to a decrease of 37% (270 GW) under the most-constrained case. More-stringent siting restrictions lead to higher electricity prices and emissions that should be weighed with local impacts. Under restrictive siting regimes, wind deployment is also sensitive to transmission availability and wind plant design. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of local land use considerations in regional and national power system planning.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Cascading economic losses from port disruptions under capacity constrained multimodal freight networks

This study quantifies how throughput disruptions at major seaports cascade through capacity-constrained multimodal freight networks and interregional production systems. We couple an agent-based model (ABM) multimodal freight simulation that resolves rerouting, terminal queueing, and inventory drawdown under binding modal and facility capacities with a multiregional output loss input-output (MRIIM) model that propagates realized delivery shortfalls across regions and sectors. The framework is demonstrated for the Port of Los Angeles using Freight Analysis Framework flows and Bureau of Economic Analysis input-output accounts and is evaluated over a 52-week horizon under deterministic sector targeted shocks and stochastic disruption realizations with uncertain severity and duration. Results indicate nonlinear amplification: realized national losses concentrate in manufacturing and transportation/warehousing even when exogenous port shocks are dispersed, suggesting that congestion spillback and limited short-run substitution can dominate the initial shock allocation. We further evaluate a tabular reinforcement-learning (Q-learning) intervention layer that selects among a small set of implementable system level levers (truck-to-rail and truck-to-barge shift settings) without overriding shipper routing, finding that such interventions reduce total losses for moderate disruptions but yield diminishing returns once substitute modes approach capacity. By linking operational freight behavior to system wide impacts under uncertainty, the proposed ABM-MRIIM pipeline provides a reusable workflow for port disruption stress testing, identification of structurally critical sectors/corridors, and evaluation of resilience interventions under realistic capacity limits.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Spectral Irradiance Calibration in the Infrared: 5-14 Micron Spectroscopy of the Asteroids Ceres, Vesta, and Pallas - 8

We describe our efforts to seek "closure" in our infrared absolute calibration scheme by comparing spectra of asteroids, absolutely calibrated through reference stars, with "standard thermal models" and "thermophysical models" for these bodies. Our use of continuous 5-14 microns airborne spectra provides complete sampling of the rise to, and peak, of the infrared spectral energy distribution and constrains these models. Such models currently support the absolute calibration of the Infrared Space Observatory Imaging Photopolarimeter (ISOPHOT) at far-infrared wavelengths (as far as 300 microns) and contribute to that of the Mid-Infrared Spectrometer on the Infrared Telescope in Space in the 6 - 12 microns region. The best match to our observed spectra of Ceres and Vesta is a standard thermal model using a beaming factor of unity. We also report the presence of three emissivity features in Ceres that may complicate the traditional model extrapolation to the far-infrared from contemporaneous ground-based N-band photometry that is used to support calibration of, for example, ISOPHOT. While identification of specific materials that cause these features is not made, we discuss families of minerals that may be responsible.

Cohen, Martin↗

New Results from Space and Field Observations on the Aerosol Direct and Indirect Radiative Forcing

New space observations from the MODIS instrument on board the Terra satellite and analysis of POLDER data flown on the ADEOS satellite, show in great details the spatial and seasonal variability of the global aerosol system. These spaceborne instruments distinguish fine aerosol from man-made regional pollution and biomass burning from mostly natural coarse dust and sea salt aerosol. E.g. fine regional pollution in and around the Indian sub-continent, Europe and North America; smoke from biomass burning in Southern Africa and Southern America; coarse dust from West Africa and mixed dust pollution and smoke from West and central Africa and East Asia. These regions were also studied extensively in focused field experiments and by the distributed AERONET network. The results generate the first climatologies of the aerosol system, are used to derive the aerosol radiative effects and to estimate the anthropogenic component. The measurements are also used to evaluate each other and constrain aerosol transport models.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗

The Global Aerosol System and its Direct Forcing of Climate: Results From MODIS, AERONET and GOCART

Space observations from the MODIS instrument on board the Terra satellite, show in great details the spatial and seasonal variability of the global aerosol system. These spaceborne instruments distinguish fine aerosol from man-made regional pollution and biomass burning from mostly natural coarse dust and sea salt aerosol. E.g. fine regional pollution in and around the Indian sub-continent, Europe and North America; smoke from biomass burning in Southern Africa and Southern America; coarse dust from West Africa and mixed dust pollution and smoke from West and central Africa and East Asia. These regions were also studied extensively in focused field experiments and by the distributed AERONET network. The results generate the first climatology of the aerosol system, are used to derive the aerosol radiative effects and to estimate the anthropogenic component. The measurements are also used to evaluate each other and constrain aerosol transport models.

Kaufman, Y. J.↗

South Polar Ar Enhancement as a Tracer for Southern Winter Horizontal Meridional Mixing

Measurements made by the Gamma Ray Spectrometer (GRS) on Mars Odyssey during 2002 and 2003 show an obvious increase in the gamma flux of 1294 keV gamma rays resulting from the decay of (41)Ar. (41)Ar is made by the capture of thermal neutrons by atmospheric (40)Ar. The increase measured above the southern polar region has permitted calculation of the increase in mixing ratio of Ar from L(sub s) 8 to 100 between latitudes 75 S and 90 S. The peak in Ar enhancement occurs about 200 Earth days after CO2 freeze-out has begun, indicating that up to this time equatorward meridional mixing is rapid enough to move enhanced Ar from the polar regions northward. Although the CO2 frost depth continues to increase from L(sub s) 110 deg to 190 deg, the Ar enhancement steadily decreases to its baseline value reached at about L(sub s) 200 deg. Our data permit an estimate of the horizontal eddy mixing coefficient useful for constraining equatorward meridional mixing during southern winter and a characteristic mixing time for the polar southern winter atmosphere. Also, using the drop in excess Ar measured by the GRS from L(sub s) 110 deg to 200 deg, we estimate an eddy coefficient appropriate for meridional mixing of the entire Ar excess back to the baseline value. The horizontal eddy mixing coefficients are derived using Ar as a tracer much as the vertical eddy mixing coefficient for the Earth's troposphere is derived using CH4 as a minor constituent tracer. The estimation of meridional mixing for high latitudes at Mars is important for constraining parameters used in atmospheric modeling and predicting seasonal and daily behavior. The calculations are order of magnitude estimates that should improve as the data set becomes more robust and improves our models.

Sprague, A. L.↗

Characterization of Transport Errors in Chemical Forecasts from a Global Tropospheric Chemical Transport Model

We propose a new methodology to characterize errors in the representation of transport processes in chemical transport models. We constrain the evaluation of a global three-dimensional chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM) with an extended dataset of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations obtained during the Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft campaign. The TRACEP mission took place over the western Pacific, a region frequently impacted by continental outflow associated with different synoptic-scale weather systems (such as cold fronts) and deep convection, and thus provides a valuable dataset. for our analysis. Model simulations using both forecast and assimilated meteorology are examined. Background CO concentrations are computed as a function of latitude and altitude and subsequently subtracted from both the observed and the model datasets to focus on the ability of the model to simulate variability on a synoptic scale. Different sampling strategies (i.e., spatial displacement and smoothing) are applied along the flight tracks to search for systematic model biases. Statistical quantities such as correlation coefficient and centered root-mean-square difference are computed between the simulated and the observed fields and are further inter-compared using Taylor diagrams. We find no systematic bias in the model for the TRACE-P region when we consider the entire dataset (i.e., from the surface to 12 km ). This result indicates that the transport error in our model is globally unbiased, which has important implications for using the model to conduct inverse modeling studies. Using the First-Look assimilated meteorology only provides little improvement of the correlation, in comparison with the forecast meteorology. These general statements can be refined when the entire dataset is divided into different vertical domains, i.e., the lower troposphere (less than 2 km), the middle troposphere (2-6 km), and the upper troposphere (greater than 6 km). The best agreement between the observations and the model is found in the lower and middle troposphere. Downward displacements in the lower troposphere provide a better fit with the observed value, which could indicate a problem in the representation of boundary layer height in the model. Significant improvement is also found for downward and southward displacements in the upper troposphere. There are several potential sources of errors in our simulation of the continental outflow in the upper troposphere which could lead to such biases, including the location and/or the strength of deep convective cells as well as that of wildfires in Southeast Asia.

Bey, I.↗

The Lunar IceCube Mission Design: Construction of Feasible Transfer Trajectories with a Constrained Departure

Lunar IceCube, a 6U CubeSat, will prospect for water and other volatiles from a low-periapsis, highly inclined elliptical lunar orbit. Injected from Exploration Mission-1, a lunar gravity assisted multi-body transfer trajectory will capture into a lunar science orbit. The constrained departure asymptote and value of trans-lunar energy limit transfer trajectory types that re-encounter the Moon with the necessary energy and flight duration. Purdue University and Goddard Space Flight Center's Adaptive Trajectory Design tool and dynamical system research is applied to uncover cislunar spatial regions permitting viable transfer arcs. Numerically integrated transfer designs applying low-thrust and a design framework are described.

Cis-lunar↗

Photochemical Evolution of the 2013 California Rim Fire: Synergistic Impacts of Reactive Hydrocarbons and Enhanced Oxidants

Large wildfires markedly alter regional atmospheric composition, but chemical complexity challenges model predictions of downwind impacts. Here, we elucidate key facets of gas-phase photochemistry and assess novel chemical processes via a case study of the 2013 California Rim Fire plume. Airborne in situ observations, acquired during the NASA Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) mission, illustrate the evolution of volatile organic compounds (VOC), oxidants, and reactive nitrogen over 12 hours of atmospheric aging. Measurements show rapid formation of ozone and peroxyacyl nitrates (PNs), sustained peroxide production, and prolonged enhancements in oxygenated VOC and nitrogen oxides (NOX). Measurements and Lagrangian trajectories constrain a 0-D puff model that approximates plume photochemical history and provides a framework for evaluating key processes. Simulations examine the effects of 1) previously-unmeasured reactive VOC identified in recent laboratory studies, and 2) emissions and secondary production of nitrous acid (HONO). Inclusion of estimated unmeasured VOC leads to a 250% increase in OH reactivity and a 70% increase in radical production via oxygenated VOC photolysis. HONO amplifies radical cycling and serves as a downwind NOX source, although two different HONO production mechanisms (particulate nitrate photolysis and heterogeneous NO2 conversion) exhibit markedly different effects on ozone, NOX, and PNs. Analysis of radical initiation rates suggests that oxygenated VOC photolysis is a major radical source, exceeding HONO photolysis when averaged over the first 2 hours of aging. Ozone production chemistry transitions from VOC-sensitive to NOX-sensitive within the first hour of plume aging, with both peroxide and organic nitrate formation contributing significantly to radical termination. To simulate smoke plume chemistry accurately, models should simultaneously account for the full reactive VOC pool and all relevant oxidant sources.

SEAC4RS↗

Landslide Runout Analysis Using Remote Sensing for Lower and Upper Barun Lakes

Landslides are recognized as common triggers of glacial lake outburst floods in high mountain regions, but the remoteness of dangerous glacial lakes makes monitoring and disaster management very difficult. Using a very high resolution digital elevation model produced from a series of stereo satellite images, we simulate debris flows and rock avalanche runout around two very dangerous lakes in high mountain Nepal. We constrain particularly likely sources of these slope failures to simulate 79,800 potential debris flows and rock avalanches of volumes ranging from 1,000 m3 to 1,000,000 m3. This allowed us to identify zones in and around dangerous glacial lakes that are most exposed to landslide runout hazards, along with the most frequent source areas that produced landslides that may run into either of the two glacial lakes. Although our empirical-statistical model presented limitations that numerical models attempt to overcome, our probabilistic approach combined with a very high resolution DEM may shed new light on how to identify sources and impact areas of debris flows and rock avalanches that may cascade into downstream disasters.

landslides↗

Geologic Provinces Beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet Constrained by Geophysical Data Synthesis

Present understanding of Greenland's subglacial geology is derived mostly from interpolation of geologic mapping of its ice-free margins and unconstrained by geophysical data. Here we refine the extent of its geologic provinces by synthesizing geophysical constraints on subglacial geology from seismic, gravity, magnetic and topographic data. North of 72°N, no province clearly extends across the whole island, leaving three distinct subglacial regions yet to be reconciled with margin geology. Geophysically coherent anomalies and apparent province boundaries are adjacent to the onset of faster ice flow at both Petermann Glacier and the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. Separately, based on their subaerial expression, dozens of unusually long, straight and sub-parallel subglacial valleys cross Greenland's interior and are not yet resolved by current syntheses of its subglacial topography.

Joseph A. MacGregor↗

Evaluation of Vertical Patterns in Chlorophyll-A Derived From A Data Assimilating Model of Satellite-Based Ocean Color

Satellite-based sensors of ocean color have become the primary tool to infer changes in surface chlorophyll, while BGC-Argo floats are now filling the information gap at depth. Here we use BGC-Argo data to assess depth-resolved information on chlorophyll-a derived from an ocean biogeochemical model constrained by the assimilation of surface ocean color remote sensing. The data-assimilating model replicates well the general seasonality and meridional gradients in surface and depth-resolved chlorophyll-a inferred from the float array in the Southern Ocean. On average, the model tends to overestimate float-based chlorophyll, particularly at times and locations of high productivity such as the beginning of the spring bloom, subtropical deep chlorophyll maxima, and non-iron limited regions of the Southern Ocean. The highest model RMSE in the upper 50 m with respect to the float array is of 0.6 mg Chl m −3 , which should allow the detection of seasonal changes in float-based biomass (varying between 0.01 and >1 mg Chl m −3 ) but might hinder the identification of subtle changes in chlorophyll at narrow local scales. Both model and float profiling data show good agreement with in situ data from station ALOHA, with model estimates showing a slight accuracy edge in inferring depth-resolved observations. Uncertainties in float bio-optical estimates impede their use as a reliable benchmark for validation, but the general qualitative agreement between model and float data provides confidence in the ability of model to replicate biogeochemical features below the surface, where data is not directly constrained by the assimilation of satellite ocean color.

Lionel A Quintero↗

Exploratory analysis of machine learning techniques in the Nevada geothermal play fairway analysis

Play fairway analysis (PFA) is commonly used to generate geothermal potential maps and guide exploration studies, with a particular focus on locating and characterizing blind geothermal systems. This study evaluates the application of machine learning techniques to PFA in the Great Basin region of Nevada. Following the evaluation of various techniques, we identified two approaches to PFA that produced promising results, 1) supervised Bayesian probabilistic neural networks to generate geothermal potential maps with confidence intervals, and 2) unsupervised principal component analysis paired with k-means clustering to generate both cluster maps to help identify spatial patterns, as well as new combined feature inputs. We applied these techniques to perform a comparative analysis between two principal sets of geological and geophysical features related to permeability and heat and a set of positive (known geothermal resources) and negative training sites (known drill sites with unsuitable geothermal conditions). We found that these methods constrain previously unrecognized feature controls on geothermal favorability, many of which are spatially organized within the extent of cluster groups and the major structural-hydrologic domains of the study area. Furthermore, we utilized exploratory unsupervised modeling to highlight spatial relationships between input data and predictive output results of our supervised modeling. As a result, we demonstrate how our models compare to the previous Nevada PFA and how the rapid insights these machine learning techniques offer may support future assessments of both known and undiscovered blind geothermal systems in the Great Basin region of Nevada and beyond.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

GRAIL-Identified Gravity Anomalies in Oceanus Procellarum: Insight into Subsurface Impact and Magmatic Structures on the Moon

Four, quasi-circular, positive Bouguer gravity anomalies (PBGAs) that are similar in diameter (~90-190 km) and gravitational amplitude (> 140 mGal contrast) are identified within the central Oceanus Procellarum region of the Moon. These spatially associated PBGAs are located south of Aristarchus Plateau, north of Flamsteed crater, and two are within the Marius Hills volcanic complex (north and south). Each is characterized by distinct surface geologic features suggestive of ancient impact craters and/or volcanic/plutonic activity. Here, we combine geologic analyses with forward modeling of high-resolution gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission in order to constrain the subsurface structures that contribute to these four PBGAs. The GRAIL data presented here, at spherical harmonic degrees 6–660, permit higher resolution analyses of these anomalies than previously reported, and reveal new information about subsurface structures. Specifically, we find that the amplitudes of the four PBGAs cannot be explained solely by mare-flooded craters, as suggested in previous work; an additional density contrast is required to explain the high-amplitude of the PBGAs. For Northern Flamsteed (190 km diameter), the additional density contrast may be provided by impact-related mantle uplift. If the local crust has a density ~2800 kg/cu.m, then ~7 km of uplift is required for this anomaly, although less uplift is required if the local crust has a lower mean density of ~2500 kg/cu.m. For the Northern and Southern Marius Hills anomalies, the additional density contrast is consistent with the presence of a crustal complex of vertical dikes that occupies up to ~50% of the regionally thin crust. The structure of Southern Aristarchus Plateau (90 km diameter), an anomaly with crater-related topographic structures, remains ambiguous. Based on the relatively small size of the anomaly, we do not favor mantle uplift; however, understanding mantle response in a region of especially thin crust needs to be better resolved. It is more likely that this anomaly is due to subsurface magmatic material given the abundance of volcanic material in the surrounding region. Overall, the four PBGAs analyzed here are important in understanding the impact and volcanic/plutonic history of the Moon, specifically in a region of thin crust and elevated temperatures characteristic of the Procellarum KREEP Terrane.

Deutsch, Ariel N.↗

All-optical switching of an epsilon-near-zero plasmon resonance in indium tin oxide

Abstract Nonlinear optical devices and their implementation into modern nanophotonic architectures are constrained by their usually moderate nonlinear response. Recently, epsilon-near-zero (ENZ) materials have been found to have a strong optical nonlinearity, which can be enhanced through the use of cavities or nano-structuring. Here, we study the pump dependent properties of the plasmon resonance in the ENZ region in a thin layer of indium tin oxide (ITO). Exciting this mode using the Kretschmann-Raether configuration, we study reflection switching properties of a 60 nm layer close to the resonant plasmon frequency. We demonstrate a thermal switching mechanism, which results in a shift in the plasmon resonance frequency of 20 THz for a TM pump intensity of 70 GW cm −2 . For degenerate pump and probe frequencies, we highlight an additional two-beam coupling contribution, not previously isolated in ENZ nonlinear optics studies, which leads to an overall pump induced change in reflection from 1% to 45%.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Simulation of triggering and evolution of ELM by pellet injection in EAST under BOUT++ framework

A BOUT ++ three-field magnetohydrodynamic model is employed to study the triggering and evolution of edge localized mode (ELM) by Li pellets injected along the outer mid-plane in the EAST configuration. The linear simulation shows that compared with a large deposition on the pedestal top (scenario I), a smaller deposition within the steep-gradient pedestal region (scenario II) can stimulate much larger linear growth rates of all-n peeling-ballooning modes (PBMs). The nonlinear simulation shows that there exists a pellet size threshold for ELM triggering for two deposition locations; the threshold for scenario I predicted in the present study matches the EAST observation well. Comparison of the two scenarios reveals that a smaller deposition is sufficient to trigger an ELM in a much shorter time in scenario II, whose ELM size is comparable to that in scenario I. This conclusion confirms previous DIII-D and ASDEX-Upgrade observations, suggesting that the steep-gradient pedestal region is a favorable deposition location for ELM triggering with minimum pellet size. Simulation analyses also find that the positive radial gradient of the hump-like pressure profile in the outer mid-plane induced by the pellet deposition plays a different role in the two scenarios. In scenario I, the force resulting from the gradient hinders the outflow of core plasmas and in return, the perturbation is suppressed from spreading inwards after ELM crashes. In scenario II, with a sizable deposition, the gradient results in another competitive perturbation growth region during the linear phase, thus dispersing the free energy and reducing the efficiency of destabilizing PBMs by pellet injection. The suppressing effect of saturated zonal flow on other modes, the short ELM fast crash phase, and the restricting transport effect of the positive radial pressure gradient work together to constrain the pedestal energy loss, especially when the pellet deposition amount is high.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗