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NASA NTRS2015

Early Mars Climate Modeling and the Faint Young Sun Paradox.

Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. Liquid water is not stable on its surface. There are no lakes, seas, or oceans, and precipitation falls as snowfall. Yet early in its history during the Noachian epoch, there is geological and mineralogical evidence that liquid water from rainfall flowed on its surface creating drainage systems, lakes, and - possibly - seas and oceans. More recent observations by Curiosity in Gale crater hint that such conditions may have persited into the Hesperian. The implication is that early Mars had a wamer climate than it does today as a result of a thicker atmosphere with a more powerful greenhouse effect capable of producing an active hydrological cycle with rainfall, runoff, and evaporation. Since Mariner 9 began accumulating such evidence, researchers have been trying to understand what kind of a climate system could have created greenhouse conditions favorable for liquid water. Unfortunately, the problem is not yet solved.

greenhouse gases↗

NASA NTRS2016

Global Linkages Originating from Decadal Oceanic Variability in the Subpolar North Atlantic

The anomalous decadal warming of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (SPNA), and the northward spreading of this warm water, has been linked to rapid Arctic sea ice loss and more frequent cold European winters. Recently, variations in this heat transport have also been reported to covary with global warming slowdown/acceleration periods via a Pacific climate response. We here examine the role of SPNA temperature variability in this Atlantic-Pacific climate connectivity. We find that the evolution of ocean heat content anomalies from the subtropics to the subpolar region, likely due to ocean circulation changes, coincides with a basin-wide Atlantic warming/cooling. This induces an Atlantic-Pacific sea surface temperature seesaw, which in turn, strengthens/weakens the Walker circulation and amplifies the Pacific decadal variability that triggers pronounced global-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. We conclude that the decadal oceanic variability in the SPNA is an essential component of the tropical interactions between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

Atlantic variability↗

NASA NTRS2019

Editorial: North Pacific Environment and Paleoclimate from the Late Pleistocene to Present

The vast area of the North Pacific, spanning ~55° longitude, represents a challenge for documenting and understanding the geologic history of ocean, atmosphere, and terrestrial environmental change. This special issue highlights site-specific analyses to address various questions and provides clues that arise in response to continued North Pacific warming today in a rapidly changing climate (Figure 1). The emergence of new methods and novel application of existing methods serve to enhance our fundamental understanding of natural modes of climate variability driven by ocean and atmospheric circulation patterns, including the role of external (e.g., insolation) vs. internal forcing [e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)]. Included in this volume are geographically diverse studies that present new and traditional methods for the interpretation of climate records drawn from pollen, macrofossils, tree rings, diatoms, grain size, and glacial studies. Many provide new geographic comparisons, such as Kamchatka and Hawaii, or emerge from novel geologic archives and environments, such as the marine shelf, a thermokarst lake, and a fossil forest.

Jones, Miriam C.↗

NASA NTRS2020

An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S . This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult‐to‐quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6‐3.9 K for our Baseline calculation, and remains within 2.3‐4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5‐95% ranges are 2.3‐4.7 K, bounded by 2.0‐5.7 K (although such high‐confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent, and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S , in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing‐feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

Climate↗

NASA NTRS2022

Bayesian Assessment of Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC), Hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) and Halon Banks Suggest Large Reservoirs Still Present in Old Equipment

Halocarbons contained in equipment such as air conditioners, fire extinguishers, and foams continue to be emitted after production has ceased. These ‘banks’ within equipment and applications are thus potential sources of future emissions, and must be carefully accounted for in order to evaluate nascent production versus banked emissions. Here, we build on a probabilistic Bayesian model, previously developed to quantify CFC-11, 12 and 113 banks and their emissions. We extend this model to a suite of the major banked chemicals regulated under the Montreal Protocol (HCFC-22, HCFC-141b, and HCFC-142b, halon-1211, and halon-1301, and CFC-114 and CFC-115) along with CFC-11, 12 and 113 in order to quantify a fuller range of ozone-depleting substance banks by chemical and equipment type. We show that if atmospheric lifetime and prior assumptions are accurate, banks are very likely larger than previous international assessments suggest, and that total production has been very likely higher than reported. We identify that banks of greatest climate-relevance, as determined by global warming potential weighting, are largely concentrated in CFC-11 foams and CFC-12 and HCFC-22 non-hermetic refrigeration. Halons, CFC-11, and 12 banks dominate the banks weighted by ozone depletion potential. Thus, we identify and quantify the uncertainties in substantial banks whose future emissions will contribute to future global warming and delay ozone hole recovery if left unrecovered.

Halocarbons↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Non-Additivity of the Midlatitude Circulation Response to Regional Arctic Temperature Anomalies: The Role of the Stratosphere

Previous studies have documented the impact of the Arctic sea ice loss and associated warming on the midlatitude weather and climate, especially the influence of sea ice retreat over the Barents-Kara Sea on the North Atlantic and Europe regions. However, less attention has been given to other geographical locations over the Arctic, and to the linear additivity of the circulation response to regional Arctic sea ice loss and temperature anomalies. Using a simplified dry dynamical core model, we demonstrate that responses to regional Arctic temperature anomalies over the Barents-Kara Sea, Baffin Bay-Davis Strait-Labrador Sea, and East Siberia-Chukchi Sea, separately, cause similar equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet, but different stratospheric polar vortex responses. Furthermore, responses to regional Arctic temperature anomalies are not linearly additive, and the residual resembles a positive Northern Annular Mode-like structure. Additional targeted experiments highlight the stratospheric influence in the non-additivity of the midlatitude tropospheric response.

Bithi De↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Drizzle Parameters by Aircraft Sampling

In-cloud supersaturation is calculated from aircraft derived measurements of the in-cloud vertical gradient of liquid water content, vertical velocity, the pt and 3 rd cloud droplet radius moments and a parameter related to the heat and mass transport during condensation and evaporation of cloud droplets. The aircraft data where taken during the VOCALS 2008 study in marine stratocumulus clouds off the coast of Chile. Approximately 16000 discrete samples, 2.5 meter in length, were used in the present analysis of in-cloud supersaturation and its variability, both of which are indicative of turbulent processes within the cloud and their significant impact on drizzle formation. Two additional drizzle parameters, the eddy persistence time and the variance of fluctuations in in-cloud droplet growth rate were also estimated from this data set. These results will help to constrain parameterizations of underlying turbulent microphysical processes of clouds and thereby advance the future development of warm cloud and precipitation models for climate simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Earlier emergence of a temperature response to mitigation by filtering annual variability

The rate of global surface warming is crucial for tracking progress towards global climate targets, but is strongly influenced by interannual-to-decadal variability, which precludes rapid detection of the temperature response to emission mitigation. Here we use a physics based Green’s function approach to filter out modulations to global mean surface temperature from sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns, and show that it results in an earlier emergence of a response to strong emissions mitigation. For observed temperatures, we find a filtered 2011–2020 surface warming rate of 0.24 °C per decade, consistent with long-term trends. Unfiltered observations show 0.35 °C per decade, partly due to the El Nino of 2015–2016. Pattern filtered warming rates can become a strong tool for the climate community to inform policy makers and stakeholder communities about the ongoing and expected climate responses to emission reductions, provided an effort is made to improve and validate standardized Green’s functions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a key component of the Earth Observing System (EOS) program. The CERES instrument provides radiometric measurements of the Earth's atmosphere from three broadband channels. The CERES missions are a follow-on to the successful Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) mission. The first CERES instrument (PFM) was launched on November 27, 1997, as part of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Two CERES instruments (FM1 and FM2) were launched into polar orbit on board the EOS flagship Terra on December 18, 1999, and two additional CERES instruments (FM3 and FM4) were launched on board EOS Aqua on May 4,2002. [Mission Objectives] The scientific justification for the CERES measurements can be summarized by three assertions: (1) changes in the radiative energy balance of the Earth-atmosphere system can cause long-term climate changes (e.g., carbon dioxide inducing global warming); (2) besides the systematic diurnal and seasonal cycles of incoming solar energy, changes in cloud properties (amount, height, optical thickness) cause the largest changes of the Earth's radiative energy balance; and (3) cloud physics is one of the weakest components of current climate models used to predict potential global climate change. CERES has four main objectives: 1) For climate change analysis, provide a continuation of the ERBE record of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), analyzed using the same algorithms that produced the ERBE data. 2) Double the accuracy of estimates of radiative fluxes at TOA and the Earth's surface. 3) Provide the first long-term global estimates of the radiative fluxes within the Earth's atmosphere. 4) Provide cloud property estimates that are consistent with the radiative fluxes from surface to TOA. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1997-12-27; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180].

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Volcanic Stratospheric Injections up to 160 Tg(S) Yield a Eurasian Winter Warming Indistinguishable from Internal Variability

Early observational and modeling work suggested that low-latitude volcanic eruptions, comparable to the one of Pinatubo in 1991 or Krakatau in 1883, cause substantial surface warming over the northern continents at mid-latitudes in winter. The proposed mechanism consists of the formation of an anomalously strong Equator-to-pole temperature gradient in the stratosphere due to the presence of volcanic aerosols in the tropics, which are accompanied by an acceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex, which then shifts the Northern Annular Mode into a positive phase, resulting in warming surface temperatures over Eurasia. However, a large body of research in the past decade has shown that, for eruptions such as Pinatubo or Krakatau, no such warming is seen in simulations with more recent climate models which, in general, have much finer vertical and horizontal resolution than the early ones, and which have separated the forced response from the internal variability by using large ensembles of integrations. Since the proposed physical mechanism is sound, it is then possible that eruptions comparable to those of Pinatubo or Krakatau are simply too weak, but even larger ones might indeed be capable of causing Eurasian surface warming in winter. In this study, we explore this possibility using a state-of-the-art, stratosphere-resolving climate model, forced with prescribed aerosols from the Easy Volcanic Aerosol protocol. We consider eruptions with stratospheric sulfur injections of 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, and 160 Tg(S). With 20-member ensembles, we find that with injections of 20 Tg(S) or more – roughly twice the amplitude of the Pinatubo and Krakatau eruptions – our model simulates a winter surface warming over Eurasia, which is statistically significant with a t test given our 20-member ensembles. However, the forced volcanic signal on Eurasian winter surface temperatures is very small, barely exceeding the 1σ range of internal variability for the 160 Tg(S) injection case, and much smaller for smaller eruptions. Most importantly, the number of eruptions needed to establish statistical significance is considerably larger than the number of eruptions known to have occurred in the past 2000 years.

Volcanic eruptions↗

NASA NTRS2015

Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

farm crops↗

NASA NTRS2024

Quantifying Food Security and Mitigation Risks Consequential to Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yields

Climate change is expected to impact crop yields globally, with some regions benefiting from favorable conditions and CO2 fertilization, while others face adverse effects from altered precipitation and higher temperatures. Changes in crop yields can destabilize the global food system and pose challenges to food security. Moreover, crop production is crucial, as biofuels are becoming increasingly important contributors to climate change mitigation measures aimed at limiting global warming. This study uses the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment integrated assessment model framework to analyze different indicators related to food security and climate change mitigation under varying climate change impacts on crop yields. Twelve spatially explicit crop productivity projections were taken from the full archive of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison of 120 climate-crop model combinations, forced by CMIP6-based climate scenarios. The selection includes two average-performing climate-crop model combinations, two pessimistic combinations that perform one standard deviation below the mean, and two optimistic model combinations that perform one standard deviation above the mean. To single out the effect of climate change on productivity changes, we drew samples from two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). These productivity projections were applied within an otherwise uniform scenario (SSP2) and analyzed for their effect on total calorie demand, crop prices, and number of people at risk of undernourishment to quantify food security. Risks to climate change mitigation targets were explored by modeling the total bioenergy supply, emissions, and global mean temperature. The results revealed significant differences in the risk of food security and mitigation potential between different regions and climate change scenarios. Across scenarios, the crop area extent can vary up to 2 million km2 due to changing crop yields. The projected change in global hunger ranges from 60 to 160 million undernourished people, indicating uncertainty between climate and crop model combinations. Low-income regions are especially impacted because of their high sensitivity to changes in food prices. Global climate change mitigation ambitions can also deviate by the latter part of the 21st century, as changes in yields will impact biofuel production as well as agriculture, forestry and other land use emissions. The quantitative insights generated by this study highlight the need for global policy efforts to make the agricultural system more adaptive to climate change to handle potential negative impacts.

crop yields↗

DOE OSTI2022

Earth System Model Overestimation of Cropland Temperatures Scales With Agricultural Intensity

Intensive crop growth can modify regional climate by partitioning energy to latent heating through transpiration, cooling growing season temperatures. Recent work shows that cooling associated with agriculture can dampen anthropogenic warming over breadbasket regions. However, it is unknown whether climate models reproduce crop influences on regional climate, and thus the future risk of extreme climate events over global breadbasket regions. Here, we show that models overestimate growing season temperatures and underestimate evapotranspiration (ET) over global croplands, and that these differences increase with cropped area. We trace this warm and dry difference through each model's representation of the surface energy budget, showing that model differences in transpiration, leaf area index, and the ratio of transpiration to total ET drive the overall effect. While the implications of these model deficiencies for future projections are uncertain, they point to the importance of improving representations of crop-climate processes to better assess breadbasket vulnerability to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effects of 9.5 Years of Whole-Soil Warming on the Fatty Acid and n-Alkanes Composition in Bulk Soil and Density Fractions at Blodgett Experimental Forest, California, USA

Original data of molecular data (fatty acids and n-alkanes) including concentrations and calculated molecular proxies in a whole-soil warming experiment at the Blodgett Forest Research Station after 9.5 years of warming. The study site has a Mediterranean climate with annual average temperature of 12.5 ℃ and annual average precipitation of 1774 mm. The study site is characterized by a mesic Ultic Alfisol formed from granitic parent material, corresponding to a Dystric Cambisol under the World Reference Base for Soil Resources (WRB) classification system. Experimental warming is applied throughout the soil profile to a depth of 1 m using vertically embedded heating cables that raise soil temperature by 4 °C relative to ambient conditions. Soil samples were collected on 1 May 2023, after the experiment had been operating continuously for about 9.5 years since its initiation in January 2014.The data has been processed from raw data and cross-validated by other peers. The dataset includes: - Bulk_Fattyacid_9.5-year_Soil_Warming_Blodgett, California, USA: fatty acid concentrations and proxies including Carbon Preference Index (CPI) and Average Chain Length (ACL) of bulk soil organic carbon; - Fractions_Fattyacid_9.5-year_Soil_Warming_Blodgett, California, USA: fatty acid concentrations and proxies including CPI and ACL of free particulate organic matter (fPOM) and mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM); - Bulk_Alkanes_9.5-year_Soil_Warming_Blodgett, California, USA: n-alkanes concentrations and proxies including CPI and ACL of bulk soil organic carbon; - Fractions_Alkanes_9.5-year_Soil_Warming_Blodgett, California, USA: n-alkanes concentrations and proxies including CPI and ACL of fPOM and MAOM; - n-Alkanes_All_Monomer_Concentration_9.5-year_Soil_Warming_Blodgett, California, USA: concentration of all the n-alkane monomers identified and integrated for bulk soil, fPOM and MAOM; - Fattyacid_All_Monomer_Concentration_9.5-year_Soil_Warming_Blodgett, California, USA: concentration of all the fatty acid monomers including diacids identified and integrated for bulk soil, fPOM, and MAOM. All data are provided in CSV format and can be viewed using Microsoft Excel. We specifically look at fatty acids (FA) and n-alkanes in bulk soil, fPOM and MAOM and calculated molecular proxies such as CPI and ACL to understand the source of oragnic carbon (with ACL) and degree of decomposition (CPI) of each soil fraction. Due to lack of long-chain fatty acids (carbon number ⩾ 20), microorganism-derived organic carbon is characterized by shorter ACL in comparison to plant-derived organic carbon. Fresh SOC is characterized by even-over-odd dominance for fatty acids and odd-over-even dominance for n-alkanes. Therefore, CPI indicates whether soil organic carbon (SOC) represents fresh input (CPI > 10) or is strongly decomposed (close to 1). The research questions should be then, after 9.5-year warming: 1. whether the relative contribution between microorganism-derived and plant-derived SOC in each soil fraction? 2. whether fPOM became more decomposed whereas MAOM remained relatively persistent in each soil fraction across the soil depth?

Carbon↗

DOE OSTI2025

Northern peatland microbial communities exhibit resistance to warming and acquire electron acceptors from soil organic matter

The response of microbial communities that regulate belowground carbon turnover to climate change drivers in peatlands is poorly understood. Here, we leverage a whole ecosystem warming experiment to elucidate the key processes of terminal carbon decomposition and community responses to temperature rise. Our dataset of 697 metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) represents the microbial community from the surface (10 cm) to 2 m deep into the peat column, with only 3.7% of genomes overlapping with other well-studied peatlands. Community composition has yet to show a significant response to warming after 3 years, suggesting that metabolically diverse soil microbial communities are resistant to climate change. Surprisingly, abundant and active methanogens in the genus Candidatus Methanoflorens, Methanobacterium , and Methanoregula show the potential for both acetoclastic and hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis. Nonetheless, the predominant pathways for anaerobic carbon decomposition include sulfate/sulfite reduction, denitrification, and acetogenesis, rather than methanogenesis based on gene abundances. Multi-omics data suggest that organic matter cleavage provides terminal electron acceptors, which together with methanogen metabolic flexibility, may explain peat microbiome composition resistance to warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dataset about Warming Effects on Carbon Cycling and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Permafrost Ecosystems

Field observations provide direct evidence of how does carbon cycling in permafrost ecosystems respond to climate change. This study provides a comprehensive dataset on the impact of warming on carbon cycling and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in permafrost ecosystems. The dataset is extracted and integrated from 132 peer-reviewed studies with 1430 paired observations across eight major permafrost ecosystems, including Arctic and subarctic tundra and wetland, and alpine meadow, steppe, tundra and wetland. This dataset includes 17 variables from experiments conducted during the growing season, covering the plant and soil carbon pools, soil nitrogen pool, and GHG (i.e., CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O) fluxes, among others. Background information on site climate conditions, vegetation and soil characteristics, and details of the warming experiments, including timing, methods, and warming magnitude, are also contained in the dataset. This dataset facilitates a comprehensive understanding of the impact of warming on carbon cycling and GHG fluxes in permafrost ecosystems, and provides supports for meta-analyses and literature reviews, remote sensing data validation, and land model development and parameterization.

Bao, Tao [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beiji↗

NASA NTRS2001

Mapping Rice Production in China with AVHRR Imagery

The study of rice agriculture is necessary for both the importance of rice as a vital food source and because of the fact that cultivating it has an unfortunate byproduct, namely methane gas. As a food source, rice is a staple for a large majority of the world's population, especially in Asia. Because the populations of many Asian nations are increasing at rapid rates, the production of rice will need to similarly increase. In 1989, it was estimated that the demand for rice would increase by 65% by the year 2019. Rice crops are considered to be one of the primary anthropogenic sources of methane gas. A reason for concern is that this gas is a so-called "greenhouse" trace gas and given its increasing levels in the atmosphere, is thought to contribute to the suspected global warming phenomenon. Some estimate that methane may contribute up to 20% to the global warming effect. Trace gas emissions from anthropogenic sources is an issue that generates great worldwide interest because of the fact that mankind is very likely affecting the current and future climate in potentially negative ways. In an effort to better understand these effects, scientists and engineers are conducting research on all of the varied fronts which relate to climate change and biosphere/atmosphere interactions. The study of global warming through increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is one area which has received much media and scientific attention. Research fueled by debates on this topic is being conducted on numerous, interrelated fronts in an effort to better understand the complex relationship between human activities and the earth's climate. The research ranges from attempting to verify if the observed data even supports the existence of an anthropogenically generated global-warming phenomenon, to identification of sources and sinks of the trace gases, to measuring the source strengths, to studies which focus on modeling the processes which generate the gases, and finally, to trying to project their impact on the global climatic system. Some of the more commonly known sources of greenhouse gases are related to industry and transportation. Carbon dioxide, CO2, from automobile emissions is one such example. Lesser known are sources from natural and cultivated vegetation, such as the methane, CH4, resulting from rice cropping. While the concentration of atmospheric methane is significantly less than that of carbon dioxide, CH4 has been estimated to have up to 32 times the insulating capability of carbon dioxide, making it an important gas to monitor. The remainder of this chapter will provide some additional background information on the effects of atmospheric methane, and the role that rice agriculture plays as a source in the methane budget. This will be followed by a brief description of efforts to model this source of atmospheric methane. Finally, this chapter will end with a statement of the hypotheses of this thesis, at which time a description of the information contained in the rest of this document will be provided.

Paliouras, Eleni J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Extreme windstorms in the Northeastern USA in the contemporary and future climate

Cold-season windstorms represent an important, and potentially changing, geophysical hazard in the Northeastern United States. Here we employ an integrated research methodology including both a storyline approach, where three intense windstorms from the current climate are subjected to pseudo-global warming (PGW) experiments, and a long-term transient simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. An ensemble of WRF simulations is built for each windstorm using different planetary boundary layer and microphysical parameterizations. The fidelity assessment suggests all ensemble members capture the windstorm evolution in contemporary climate. The configuration with highest fidelity is used in the PGW experiments performed with perturbed temperature fields, constant relative humidity, and deiced Great Lakes. These perturbation simulations indicate some evidence for a reduction of sea level pressure and increases in wind speed over and downwind of the Great Lakes and over the Atlantic Ocean plus an increase in precipitation accumulation but a reduction in snow coverage. These changes are spatially inhomogeneous in terms of magnitude and sign but are consistent with changes in potential vorticity. Alberta Clippers and Colorado Lows dominate the cyclones responsible for historical windstorms and thus are sampled in the PGW simulations. However, the transient simulation suggests an increasing role for tropical cyclones that undergo transition to extratropical cyclones. Furthermore, this reinforces the value of combining information from both PGW perturbation experiments within a storyline context and transient simulations when seeking to quantify the future risk associated with cold-season windstorms under changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗