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NASA NTRS1998

Book Review: Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change

The book being reviewed, Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change, addresses the effects of global climate change, particularly global warming induced by greenhouse gas emissions, on hydrological budgets at the regional scale. As noted in its preface, the book consists of peer-reviewed papers delivered at scientific meetings held by the International Geographical Union Working Group on Regional Hydrological Response to Climate Change and Global Warming, supplemented with some additional chapters that round out coverage of the topic. The editors hope that this book will serve as "not only a record of current achievements, but also a stimulus to further hydrological research as the detail and spatial resolution of Global Climate Models improves". The reviewer found the background material on regional climatology to be valuable and the methodologies presented to be of interest. The value of the book is significantly diminished, however by the dated nature of some of the material and by large uncertainties in the predictions of regional precipitation change. The book would have been improved by a much more extensive documentation of the uncertainty associated with each step of the prediction process.

Koster, Randal↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Multipole Expansion Method for Analyzing Lightning Field Changes

Changes in the surface electric field are frequently used to infer the locations and magnitudes of lightning-caused changes in thundercloud charge distributions. The traditional procedure is to assume that the charges that are effectively deposited by the flash can be modeled either as a single point charge (the Q model) or a point dipole (the P model). The Q model has four unknown parameters and provides a good description of many cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes. The P model has six unknown parameters and describes many intracloud (IC) discharges. In this paper we introduce a new analysis method that assumes that the change in the cloud charge can be described by a truncated multipole expansion, i.e., there are both monopole and dipole terms in the unknown source distribution, and both terms are applied simultaneously. This method can be used to analyze CG flashes that are accompanied by large changes in the cloud dipole moment and complex IC discharges. If there is enough information content in the measurements, the model can also be generalized to include quadrupole and higher order terms. The parameters of the charge moments are determined using a dme-dimensional grid search in combination with a linear inversion, and because of this, local minima in the error function and the associated solution ambiguities are avoided. The multipole method has been tested on computer-simulated sources and on natural lightning at the NASA Kennedy Space Center and U.S. Air Force Eastern Range.

Koshak, William J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Multipole Expansion Method for Analyzing Lightning Field Changes

Changes in the surface electric field are frequently used to infer the locations and magnitudes of lightning-caused changes in thundercloud charge distributions. The traditional procedure is to assume that the charges that are effectively deposited by the flash can be modeled either as a single point charge (the Q-model) or a point dipole (the P-model). The Q-model has 4 unknown parameters and provides a good description of many cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes. The P-model has 6 unknown parameters and describes many intracloud (IC) discharges. In this paper, we introduce a new analysis method that assumes that the change in the cloud charge can be described by a truncated multipole expansion, i.e., there are both monopole and dipole terms in the unknown source distribution, and both terms are applied simultaneously. This method can be used to analyze CG flashes that are accompanied by large changes in the cloud dipole moment and complex IC discharges. If there is enough information content in the measurements, the model can also be generalized to include quadrupole and higher order terms. The parameters of the charge moments are determined using a 3-dimensional grid search in combination with a linear inversion, and because of this, local minima in the error function and the associated solution ambiguities are avoided. The multipole method has been tested on computer simulated sources and on natural lightning at the NASA Kennedy Space Center and USAF Eastern Range.

Koshak, William J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

GISS Analysis of Surface Temperature Change

We describe the current GISS analysis of surface temperature change for the period 1880-1999 based primarily on meteorological station measurements. The global surface temperature in 1998 was the warmest in the period of instrumental data. The rate of temperature change was higher in the past 25 years than at any previous time in the period of instrumental data. The warmth of 1998 was too large and pervasive to be fully accounted for by the recent El Nino. Despite cooling in the first half of 1999, we suggest that the mean global temperature, averaged over 2-3 years, has moved to a higher level, analogous to the increase that occurred in the late 1970s. Warming in the United States over the past 50 years has been smaller than in most of the world, and over that period there was a slight cooling trend in the Eastern United States and the neighboring Atlantic Ocean. The spatial and temporal patterns of the temperature change suggest that more than one mechanism was involved in this regional cooling. The cooling trend in the United States, which began after the 1930s and is associated with ocean temperature change patterns, began to reverse after 1979. We suggest that further warming in the United States to a level rivaling the 1930s is likely in the next decade, but reliable prediction requires better understanding of decadal oscillations of ocean temperature.

Hansen, J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Contamination Control Changes to the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor Program: A Ten Year Review

During the post Challenger period, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Thiokol implemented changes to the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) contract to include provisions for contamination control to enhance the production environment. During the ten years since those agreements for contamination controls were made, many changes have taken place in the production facilities at Thiokol. These changes have led to the production of much higher quality shuttle solid rocket motors and improved cleanliness and safety of operations in the production facilities. The experience in contamination control over this past decade highlights the value these changes have brought to the RSRM program, and how the system can be improved to meet the challenges the program will face in the next ten years.

Bushman, David M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Solar-Cycle Changes in GONG P-Mode Widths and Amplitudes 1995-1998

We search for a solar cycle variation in mode widths and amplitudes derived from 3-month GONG time series. The variation of mode width and amplitude observed in GONG data are the combined effects of fill factor, temporal variation, and measurement uncertainties. The largest variation is caused by the fill factor resulting in modes with increased width and reduced amplitude when fill is lower. We assume that the solar cycle variation is the only other systematic variation beside the temporal window function effect. We correct all currently available data sets for the fill factor and simultaneously derive the solar cycle variation. We find an increase of about 3% on average in mode width from the previous minimum to Oct. 1998 and a decrease of about 7% and 6% in mode amplitude and mode area (width x amplitude). We find no l dependence of the solar-cycle changes. As a function of frequency, these changes show a maximum between 2.7 and 3.3 mHz with about 47% higher than average values for mode width and about 29% and 36% higher ones for mode amplitude and area. We estimate the significance of these rather small changes by a pre-whitening method and find that the results are significant at or above the 99.9% level with mode area showing the highest level of significance and mode width the lowest. The variation in background amplitude is most likely not significant and is consistent with a zero change.

Komm R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Rapid Vegetational Change in Coastal North America: The Response to Climate Since the LGM

The late-glacial interval provided rapid shifts in climate which are mirrored by dramatic vegetational changes in North America. Through a transect of lake and mire sites from Connecticut to Virginia on the east coast and Kodiak Island on the western coast, we trace the warming following the LGM with the response of forests and tundra. A brief cold reversal in Virginia is seen from 12,260 to 12,200. The subsequent longer and extreme Younger Dryas event is marked in the southern New England - New Jersey region by dramatic boreal and deciduous forest changes. In the southeastern US, forests also change rapidly, with hemlock forest expansion suggesting increased moisture. In Kodiak Island, the warm, moist tundra of the Bolling/Allerod is replaced by colder, windswept Empetrum-dominated tundra during the Younger Dryas. The Pleistocene/Holocene shift in vegetation is remarkably pronounced in eastern North America as well as the Alaskan coastline. Response time of vegetation to climate change appears to be on the order of decades throughout these coastal locations, probably because of the proximity of sites to important ecotonal boundaries, and the magnitude of the events. Even in Virginia's Holocene record, a cold reversal inferred from increases in spruce and fir is noted at 7500 C14 yr BP. This response of the forests to a short-lived cooling shows the sensitivity of the biosphere to a rapid climate shifts.

Peteet, Dorothy↗
NASA NTRS1998

Brightness Changes in Sun-like Stars

Does the Sun's energy output vary with time? Are observable climatic changes on the earth caused by changes in the Sun? Can we gain greater insight into this relation-ship by studying other stars with properties similar to the Sun's? In recent years, satellite observations have shown that the solar irradiance varies in phase with the 1 l-year sunspot cycle. The Sun is brighter by about O.l% at the peak of the sunspot cycle when solar magnetic activity is at its maximum. Over longer intervals, changes in the cart h's climate and solar magnetic activity seem to be correlated. We are using automatic photoelectric telescopes to measure brightness changes in a sample of 150 Sun-like stars. Lowell Observatory astronomers have also observed about 30 of these same stars with a manual telescope in a program that began 10 years before ours. Since these two data sets were acquired with different instruments and so have significant systematic differences, we developed software to combine them accurately and, therefore, extend our observational time coverage. We show sample results of brightness variations over 14 years in several Sun-like stars with different ages. Longitudinal studies like these, combined with cross-sectional studies of the larger sample of stars, may eventually allow us to infer with confidence the Sun's long-term brightness history and its impact on the earth's climate.

Henry, Stephen M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Annual Sea Level Variability Induced by Changes in Sea Ice Extent and Accumulation on Ice Sheets: An Assessment Based on Remotely Sensed Data

Changes of mean annual net accumulation at the surface on the grounded ice sheets of East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and Greenland in response to variations in sea ice extent are estimated using grid-point values 100 km apart. The data bases are assembled principally by bilinear interpolation of remotely sensed brightness temperature (Nimbus-5 ESMR, Nimbus-7 SMMR), surface temperature (Nimbus-7 THIR), and surface elevation (ERS-1 radar altimeter). These data, complemented by field data where remotely sensed data are not available, are used in multivariate analyses in which mean annual accumulation (derived from firn emissivity) is the dependent variable; the independent variables are latitude, surface elevation, mean annual surface temperature, and mean annual distance to open ocean (as a source of energy and moisture). The last is the shortest distance measured between a grid point and the mean annual position of the 10% sea ice concentration boundary, and is used as an index of changes in sea ice extent as well as of mean concentration. Stepwise correlation analyses indicate that variations in sea ice extent of +/-50 km would lead to changes in accumulation inversely of +/-4% on East Antarctica, +/- 10% on West Antarctica, and +4% on Greenland. These results are compared with those obtained in a previous study using visually interpolated values from contoured compilations of field data; they substantiate the findings for the Antarctic ice sheets (+/-4% on East Antarctica, +/-9% in West Antarctica), and suggest a reduction by one half of the probable change of accumulation on Greenland (from +/-8%). The results also suggest a reduction of the combined contribution to sea level variability to +/- 0.19 mm/a (from +/- 0.22 mm/a).

Zwally, H. J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Verification and Improvement of ERS-1/2 Altimeter Geophysical Data Records for Global Change Studies

This Final Technical Report summarizes the research work conducted under NASA's Physical Oceanography Program entitled, Verification And Improvement Of ERS-112 Altimeter Geophysical Data Recorders For Global Change Studies, for the time period from January 1, 2000 through June 30, 2000. This report also provides a summary of the investigation from July 1, 1997 - June 30, 2000. The primary objectives of this investigation include verification and improvement of the ERS-1 and ERS-2 radar altimeter geophysical data records for distribution of the data to the ESA-approved U.S. ERS-1/-2 investigators for global climate change studies. Specifically, the investigation is to verify and improve the ERS geophysical data record products by calibrating the instrument and assessing accuracy for the ERS-1/-2 orbital, geophysical, media, and instrument corrections. The purpose is to ensure that the consistency of constants, standards and algorithms with TOPEX/POSEIDON radar altimeter for global climate change studies such as the monitoring and interpretation of long-term sea level change. This investigation has provided the current best precise orbits, with the radial orbit accuracy for ERS-1 (Phases C-G) and ERS-2 estimated at the 3-5 cm rms level, an 30-fold improvement compared to the 1993 accuracy. We have finalized the production and verification of the value-added ERS-1 mission (Phases A, B, C, D, E, F, and G), in collaboration with JPL PODAAC and the University of Texas. Orbit and data verification and improvement of algorithms led to the best data product available to-date. ERS-2 altimeter data have been improved and we have been active on Envisat (2001 launch) GDR algorithm review and improvement. The data improvement of ERS-1 and ERS-2 led to improvement in the global mean sea surface, marine gravity anomaly and bathymetry models, and a study of Antarctica mass balance, which was published in Science in 1998.

Shum, C. K.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Vnode Layering Changes in NetBSD Version 1.5

In this paper, I describe changes to the vnode layer in NetBSD between versions 1.4 and 1.5 to assist layered filesystems. The major feature of these chano,es on the whole is that layered filesystems are now sufficiently robust for production applications. These changes divide readily into three groups: modifications to vnode locking along the lines suggested by Heidemann, changes to the vnode locking protocol, and the introduction of an overlay filesystem. In addition to describing these changes, I will describe the testing we have performed.

Studenmund, William↗
NASA NTRS2001

Detection of Deforestation and Land Conversion in Rondonia, Brazil Using Change Detection Techniques

Fires associated with tropical deforestation, land conversion, and land use greatly contribute to emissions as well as the depletion of carbon and nutrient pools. The objective of this research was to compare change detection techniques for identifying deforestation and cattle pasture formation during a period of early colonization and agricultural expansion in the vicinity of Jamari, Rond6nia. Multi-date Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data between 1984 and 1992 was examined in a 94 370-ha area of active deforestation to map land cover change. The Tasseled Cap (TC) transformation was used to enhance the contrast between forest, cleared areas, and regrowth. TC images were stacked into a composite multi-date TC and used in a principal components (PC) transformation to identify change components. In addition, consecutive TC image pairs were differenced and stacked into a composite multi-date differenced image. A maximum likelihood classification of each image composite was compared for identification of land cover change. The multi-date TC composite classification had the best accuracy of 78.1% (kappa). By 1984, only 5% of the study area had been cleared, but by 1992, 11% of the area had been deforested, primarily for pasture and 7% lost due to hydroelectric dam flooding. Finally, discrimination of pasture versus cultivation was improved due to the ability to detect land under sustained clearing opened to land exhibiting regrowth with infrequent clearing.

Guild, Liane S.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Investigation of Thermospheric and Ionospheric Changes during Ionospheric Storms with Satellite and Ground-Based Data and Modeling

The purpose of this proposed research is to improve our basic understanding of the causes of ionospheric storm behavior in the midlatitude F region ionosphere. This objective will be achieved by detailed comparisons between ground based measurements of the peak electron density (N(sub m)F(sub 2)), Atmosphere Explorer satellite measurements of ion and neutral composition, and output from the Field Line Interhemispheric Plasma (FLIP) model. The primary result will be a better understanding of changes in the neutral densities and ion chemistry during magnetic storms that will improve our capability to model the weather of the ionosphere which will be needed as a basis for ionospheric prediction. Specifically, this study seeks to answer the following questions: (1) To what extent are negative ionospheric storm phases caused by changes in the atomic to molecular ratio? (2) Are the changes in neutral density ratio due to increased N2, or decreased O, or both? (3) Are there other chemical processes (e.g., excited N2) that increase O+ loss rates during negative storms? (4) Do neutral density altitude distributions differed from hydrostatic equilibrium? (5) Why do near normal nighttime densities often follow daytime depletions of electron density; and (6) Can changes in h(sub m)F2 fully account for positive storm phases? To answer these questions, we plan to combine ground-based and space-based measurements with the aid of our ionospheric model which is ideally suited to this purpose. These proposed studies will lead to a better capability to predict long term ionospheric variability, leading to better predictions of ionospheric weather.

Richards, Philip G.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Quantitative Assessment of the Integrated Response in Global Heat and Moisture Budgets to Changing Solar Irradiance

Earlier, we found time sequences of basin- and global-average upper ocean temperature (that is, diabatic heat storage above the main pycnocline) for 40 years from 1955-1994 and of sea surface temperature for 95 years from 1900-1994 associated with changes in the Sun's radiative forcing on decadal and interdecadal timescales, lagging by 10 deg.- 30 deg. of phase and confined to the upper 60-120 m. Yet, the observed changes in upper ocean temperature (approx. 0.1 K) were approximately twice those expected from the Stefan-Boltzmann black-body radiation law for the Earth's surface, with phase lags (0 deg. to 30 deg. of phase) much shorter than the 90 deg. phase shift expected as well. Moreover, White et al. (1997, 1998) found the Earth's global decadal mode in covarying SST and SLP anomalies phase locked to the decadal signal in the Sun's irradiance. Yet, Allan (2000) found this decadal signal also characterized by patterns similar to those observed on biennial and interannual time scales; that is, the Troposphere Biennial Oscillation (TBO) and the El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This suggested that small changes in the Sun's total irradiance could excite this global decadal mode in the Earth's ocean-atmosphere-terrestrial system similar to those excited internally on biennial and interannual period scales. This is a significant finding, proving that energy budget models (that is, models based on globally-averaged radiation balances) yield unrealistic responses. Thus, the true response must include positive and negative feedbacks in the Earth's ocean-atmosphere-terrestrial system as its internal mode (that is, the natural mode of the system) respond in damped resonance to quasi-periodic decadal changes in the Sun's irradiance. Moreover, these responses are not much different from those occurring internally on biennial and interannual period scales.

White, Warren B.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Topographic Change Detection Using Full-Waveform Imaging Lidar

The capability of wide-footprint (i.e. 10m or greater), full-waveform laser altimeters to penetrate beneath dense vegetation to directly measure the sub-canopy topography provides us with a unique capability for sensing topographic change in the presence of vegetation. We evaluate the feasibility of using a geolocated laser altimeter return waveform instead of individual elevation measurements to measure vertical elevation change within a laser footprint. The method, dubbed the return pulse correlation method, maximizes the shape similarity of nea-coincident, vertically- geolocated laser return waveforms from two observation epochs as they are vertically-shifted relative to each other. First, we evaluate the inherent accuracy of the pulse correlation method using models and simulations under "bare-Earth" conditions. We then analyze the effects of vegetation and vegetation growth on the change detection capability. The use of this method, combined with order of magnitude improvements to laser altimeter swath widths (from 1 km to 10 km) and the potential for a future spaceborne imaging lidar, may provide subcentimeter level relative change detection beneath vegetation to complement IFSAR's ability to make similar measurements in low or vegetation-free conditions.

Blair, Bryan↗
NASA NTRS2001

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is compensated by larger increases in sensible and latent heat fluxes out of the ocean. Although the net energy loss from the ocean surface increases by 0.8 W (per square meters), this is less than the interannual variability, and the increase may not indicate a long-term trend. The seasonal cycle of heat fluxes is significantly enhanced. The downward surface heat flux increases in summer (maximum 2 of 19 W per square meters or 23% in June) while the upward heat flux increases in winter (maximum of 16 W per square meters or 28% in November). The increased downward flux in summer is due to a combination of increases in absorbed solar and thermal radiation and smaller losses of sensible and latent heat. The increased heat loss in winter is due to increased sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn are due to reduced sea-ice cover. On the other hand, the seasonal cycle of surface air temperature is damped, as there is a large increase in winter temperature but little change in summer.

Miller, James R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Changes in Earth 360 380 nm Reflectivity: 1980-2000

The TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) reflectively time series 1980 to 1992 and 1997 to 2000 have been combined to estimate change that have occurred over a 21 year period. The relative calibration of the two TOMS (Nimbus-7, N7 and Earth-Probe, EP) has been validated using the measured reflectivity R over Hudson Bay, Canada and found to be within 1 RU (R=0.01). Some of the local trend features seen in the N7 time series (1980 to 1992) have been continued in the combined time series, but the overall zonal average and global trends have changed. The UV (ultraviolet) reflectivity data are compared with changes in the AVHRR outgoing long-wavelength radiation (OLR) and show an expected anti-correlation with cloud-cover changes over the same period for many, but not all, features. The key results include a continuing decrease in cloud cover over Europe and North America and an increase in reflectivity near Antarctica.

Herman, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Replacement of Ablators with Phase-Change Material for Thermal Protection of STS Elements

As part of the research and development program to develop new Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials for aerospace applications at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), an experimental study was conducted on a new concept for a non-ablative TPS material. Potential loss of TPS material and ablation by-products from the External Tank (ET) or Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) during Shuttle flight with the related Orbiter tile damage necessitates development of a non-ablative thermal protection system. The new Thermal Management Coating (TMC) consists of phase-change material encapsulated in micro spheres and a two-part resin system to adhere the coating to the structure material. The TMC uses a phase-change material to dissipate the heat produced during supersonic flight rather than an ablative material. This new material absorbs energy as it goes through a phase change during the heating portion of the flight profile and then the energy is slowly released as the phase-change material cools and returns to its solid state inside the micro spheres. The coating was subjected to different test conditions simulating design flight environments at the NASA/MSFC Improved Hot Gas Facility (IHGF) to study its performance.

Kaul, Raj K.↗