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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Year-round trace gas measurements in the central Arctic during the MOSAiC expedition

Despite the key role of the Arctic in the global Earth system, year-round in-situ atmospheric composition observations within the Arctic are sparse and mostly rely on measurements at ground-based coastal stations. Measurements of a suite of in-situ trace gases were performed in the central Arctic during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. These observations give a comprehensive picture of year-round near-surface atmospheric abundances of key greenhouse and trace gases, i.e., carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, carbon monoxide, dimethylsulfide, sulfur dioxide, elemental mercury, and selected volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Redundancy in certain measurements supported continuity and permitted cross-evaluation and validation of the data. This paper gives an overview of the trace gas measurements conducted during MOSAiC and highlights the high quality of the monitoring activities. In addition, in the case of redundant measurements, merged datasets are provided and recommended for further use by the scientific community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reservoir Simulations and Accuracy Measures for CO 2 and Pressure Plumes for the Broom Creek Formation in Central North Dakota

Conference paper presented at 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-17), Calgary, Alberta, Canada, October 20–24, 2024. This study estimated the accuracy of the predicted 5-year carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and pressure plumes for a hypothetical geological storage project injecting CO 2 into the Broom Creek Formation near central North Dakota.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS1992

Solar Probe thermal shield design and testing

This paper discusses the major thermal shield subsystem development activities in support of the Solar Probe study being conducted at JPL. The Solar Probe spacecraft will travel to within 4 solar radii of the sun's center to perform fundamental experiments in space physics. Exposure to 2900 earth suns at perihelion requires the spacecraft to be protected within the shadow envelope of a protective shield. In addition, the mass loss rate off of the shield at elevated temperature must comply with plasma instrument requirements and has become the driver of the shield design. This paper will focus on the analytical design work to size the shield and control the shield mass loss rate for the various spacecraft options under study, the application of carbon-carbon materials for shield components, development and preparation of carbon-carbon samples for materials testing, and a materials testing program for carbon-carbon and tungsten alloys to investigate thermal/optical properties, mass loss (carbon-carbon only), material integrity, and high velocity impact behavior.

Millard, Jerry M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Further Investigations of the Passive Optical Sample Assembly (POSA) - I Flight Experiment

The Passive Optical Sample Assembly-I (POSA-I), part of the Mir Environmental Effects Payload (MEEP), was designed to study the combined effects of contamination, atomic oxygen, ultraviolet radiation, vacuum, then-nal cycling, and other constituents of the space environment on spacecraft materials. The MEEP program is a Phase I International Space Station Risk Mitigation Experiment. Candidate materials for the International Space Station (ISS) were exposed in a specially designed "suitcase" carrier, with identical specimens facing either Mir or space. The payload was attached by EVA to the exterior of the Mir docking module during the STS-76 mission (f'ig. 1). It was removed during the STS-86 mission after an 18-month exposure. During the mission, it received approximately 7 x 1019 atoMS/CM2 atomic oxygen, as calculated by polymer mass loss, and 413 ESH of solar ultraviolet radiation on the Mir-facing side. The side facing away from Mir received significant contaminant deposition, so atomic oxygen fluence has not been reliably determined. The side facing away from Mir received 571 ESH of solar UV. Contamination was observed on both the Mir-facing and space-facing sides of the POSA-I experiment , with a greater amount of deposition on the space facing side than the Mir side. The contamination has been determined to be outgassed silicone photofixed by ultraviolet radiation and converted to silicate by atomic oxygen interaction. Electron spectroscopy for chemical analysis (ESCA) with depth profiling indicated the presence of 26 - 31 nm silicate on the Mir-facing side and 500 - 1000 nm silicate on the space-facing side. The depth profiling also showed that the contaminant layer was uniform, with a small amount of carbon present on the surface and trace amounts of nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur, and tin. The surface carbon layer is likely due to post-flight exposure in the laboratory and is similar to carbonaceous deposits on control samples. EDAX and FTIR analysis concurred with ESCA for the presence of silicon, oxygen, and carbon. Nearly 400 samples were exposed on POSA-I, which included materials such as thermal control coatings polymeric films, optical materials, and multi-layer insulation blankets. A previous paper discussed the effects of the space environment exposure and contaminant deposition on candidate materials for ISS, including Z93P inorganic thermal control coating, various anodizes, and multi-layer insulation blankets. This paper details the investigation of environmental effects on the remainder of POSA-I samples, particularly the innovative conductive thermal control coatings developed by AZ Technology of Huntsville, AL and HT Research Institute of Chicago, IL. The silicone/silicate contamination had a significant impact on the solar absorptance of white inorganic thermal control coatings on the space-facing side of POSA-I. The effect of contamination on electrical conductivity is discussed. Samples of conductive anodized aluminum developed by Boundary Technologies of Buffalo Grove, IL were also exposed on POSA-I. The effects of the space environment and contaminant deposition on the optical and electrical properties of the conductive anodized aluminum are discussed.

Finckenor, Miria M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Modeling of Melt Growth During Carbothermal Processing of Lunar Regolith

The carbothermal processing of lunar regolith has been proposed as a means to produce carbon monoxide and ultimately oxygen to support human exploration of the moon. In this process, gaseous methane is pyrolyzed as it flows over the hot surface of a molten zone of lunar regolith and is converted to carbon and hydrogen. Carbon gets deposited on the surface of the melt, and mixes and reacts with the metal oxides in it to produce carbon monoxide that bubbles out of the melt. Carbon monoxide is further processed in other reactors downstream to ultimately produce oxygen. The amount of oxygen produced crucially depends on the amount of regolith that is molten. In this paper we develop a model of the heat transfer in carbothermal processing. Regolith in a suitable container is heated by a heat flux at its surface such as by continuously shining a beam of solar energy or a laser on it. The regolith on the surface absorbs the energy and its temperature rises until it attains the melting point. The energy from the heat flux is then used for the latent heat necessary to change phase from solid to liquid, after which the temperature continues to rise. Thus a small melt pool appears under the heated zone shortly after the heat flux is turned on. As time progresses, the pool absorbs more heat and supplies the energy required to melt more of the regolith, and the size of the molten zone increases. Ultimately, a steady-state is achieved when the heat flux absorbed by the melt is balanced by radiative losses from the surface. In this paper, we model the melting and the growth of the melt zone with time in a bed of regolith when a portion of its surface is subjected to a constant heat flux. The heat flux is assumed to impinge on a circular area. Our model is based on an axisymmetric three-dimensional variation of the temperature field in the domain. Heat transfer occurs only by conduction, and effects of convective heat transport are assumed negligible. Radiative heat loss from the surface of the melt and the regolith to the surroundings is permitted. We perform numerical computations to determine the shape and the mass of the melt at steady state and its time evolution. We first neglect the volume change upon melting, and subsequently perform calculations including it. Predictions from our model are compared to test data to determine the effective thermal conductivities of the regolith and the melt that are compatible with the data

Balasubramaniam, R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Compendium of Brazed Microstructures For Fission Power Systems Applications

NASA has been supporting design studies and technology development for fission-based power systems that could provide power to an outpost on the Moon, Mars, or an asteroid. Technology development efforts have included fabrication and evaluation of components used in a Stirling engine power conversion system. This investigation is part of the development of several braze joints crucial for the heat exchanger transfer path from a hot-side heat exchanger to a Stirling engine heat acceptor. Dissimilar metal joints are required to impart both mechanical strength and thermal path integrity for a heater head of interest. Preliminary design work for the heat exchanger involved joints between low carbon stainless steel to Inconel 718, where the 316L stainless steel would contain flowing liquid metal NaK while Inconel 718, a stronger alloy, would be used as structural reinforcement. This paper addressed the long-term microstructural stability of various braze alloys used to join 316L stainless steel heater head to the high conductivity oxygen-free copper acceptor to ensure the endurance of the critical metallic components of this sophisticated heat exchanger. The bonding of the 316L stainless steel heater head material to a copper heat acceptor is required to increase the heat-transfer surface area in contact with flowing He, which is the Stirling engine working fluid.

Locci, Ivan E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

2-Micron Triple-Pulse Integrated Path Differential Absorption Lidar Development for Simultaneous Airborne Column Measurements of Carbon Dioxide and Water Vapor in the Atmosphere

For more than 15 years, NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) has contributed in developing several 2-micron carbon dioxide active remote sensors using the DIAL technique. Currently, an airborne 2-micron triple-pulse integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar is under development at NASA LaRC. This paper focuses on the advancement of the 2-micron triple-pulse IPDA lidar development. Updates on the state-of-the-art triple-pulse laser transmitter will be presented including the status of wavelength control, packaging and lidar integration. In addition, receiver development updates will also be presented, including telescope integration, detection systems and data acquisition electronics. Future plan for IPDA lidar system for ground integration, testing and flight validation will be presented.

Singh, Upendra N.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Effective radiative forcing from emissions of reactive gases and aerosols - a multi-model comparison

This paper quantifies the pre-industrial (1850) to present-day (2014) effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic emissions of NOX, volatile organic compounds (VOCs; including CO), SO2, NH3, black carbon, organic carbon, and concentrations of methane, N2O and ozone-depleting halocarbons, using CMIP6 models. Concentration and emission changes of reactive species can cause multiple changes in the composition of radiatively active species: tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone, stratospheric water vapour, secondary inorganic and organic aerosol, and methane. Where possible we break down the ERFs from each emitted species into the contributions from the composition changes. The ERFs are calculated for each of the models that participated in the AerChemMIP experiments as part of the CMIP6 project, where the relevant model output was available. The 1850 to 2014 multi-model mean ERFs (± standard deviations) are −1.03 ± 0.37 W/sq.m for SO2 emissions, −0.25 ± 0.09 W/sq.m for organic carbon (OC), 0.15 ± 0.17 W/sq.m for black carbon (BC) and −0.07 ± 0.01 W/sq.m for NH3. For the combined aerosols (in the piClim-aer experiment) it is −1.01 ± 0.25 W/sq.m. The multi-model means for the reactive well-mixed greenhouse gases (including any effects on ozone and aerosol chemistry) are 0.67 ± 0.17 W/sq.m for methane (CH4), 0.26 ± 0.07 W/sq.m for nitrous oxide (N2O) and 0.12 ± 0.2 W/sq.m for ozone-depleting halocarbons (HC). Emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and both together (O3) lead to ERFs of 0.14 ± 0.13, 0.09 ± 0.14 and 0.20 ± 0.07 W/sq.m respectively. The differences in ERFs calculated for the different models reflect differences in the complexity of their aerosol and chemistry schemes, especially in the case of methane where tropospheric chemistry captures increased forcing from ozone production.

radiative forcing↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Multiscale Modeling Approach to Cryocompressed Hydrogen Storage Pressure Vessels – Part II: Constitutive Modeling and Finite Element Analysis

Subjected to thermomechanical cycling, composite cryogenic hydrogen (H2) storage pressure vessels experience high stresses in the carbon fiber (CF)/epoxy overwrap which can lead to vessel failure due to a combination of degradation mechanisms such as matrix cracking, fiber/matrix debonding, delamination, and fiber rupture. The present paper is the second part of a set of two articles on this subject that addresses analysis and design of these pressure vessels. Predictive finite element (FE) modeling capabilities have been used to support a material acceptance process that aims at providing guidance to evaluate specialty resins, vessel liner options, and CF composites through thermomechanical testing. We have applied a multiscale modeling approach recently developed (B.N. Nguyen et al., International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2019.09.200) to perform three-dimensional (3D) FE analysis and design of a cryo-compressed H2 storage pressure vessel for its operation in a large temperature range from room to cryogenic temperatures. The developed approach termed the micro-meso-macro approach determines the laminar stresses in different layers of the vessel in addition to constituent (i.e., fiber and matrix) stresses that are important to the design of the composite overwrap for its layup and material combination to reduce the risk of vessel failure.

Nguyen, Ba Nghiep↗
NASA NTRS2020

TPS and Entry Technologies for Future Outer Planet Exploration

The lack of knowledge about the Ice Giants (Voyager being the only probe to briefly visit them) and literally narrow window of planetary alignment for pragmatic missions to the Ice Giants, make them high priority targets in the next decade. The purpose of this white paper is to provide an overview to the NRC Decadal Survey on thermal protection system (TPS) technologies required for future Outer Planet exploration missions. A prime conclusion is that several of the most significant recommendations made during the last decadal survey were addressed positioning the TPS community to better support missions to the Outer Planets. These include maturation of the Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) to TRL 6 as replacement for Carbon Phenolic (that requires requalification itself), TPS test facility upgrades, and design tool improvements. These new materials and test methods are enabling for Outer Planet missions. However, there are limitations in the HEEET technology and available ground based test facilities that could become mission constraints depending on the science objectives. This white paper discusses opportunities to mitigate those constraints. In addition, if a mission is not scheduled in the near future, these new developments are at risk of becoming unavailable. Therefore, we recommend that NASA invest in a cross-cutting technology program that focuses on sustainment of relevant TPS materials, entry systems, test facilities, design tools, and flight instrumentation.

Outer Planets↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of quantitative risk assessment to address stakeholder questions in geologic carbon storage

Ambitious international greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets demand a rapid transformation to a low-carbon economy. This transformation includes the accelerated adoption of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, as with any large-scale engineering enterprise, the widespread commercial-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage (GCS) raises important questions about technology and cost-effectiveness, safety, environmental risk, and long-term liability. Effectively assessing and managing risks and liability associated with GCS projects is a key technical need throughout the project life cycle-from site selection and permitting to monitoring design, operational risk management, and post-operational site closure. This presentation highlights recent advancements in tools for quantitative risk assessment, being developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). NRAP is a multi-year, multinational laboratory research collaboration sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management. Our focus will be on these tools' applications in addressing critical stakeholder questions related to supporting permitting to ensure secure and environmentally protective storage; designing effective and efficient monitoring plans; evaluating the effectiveness of remedial actions and risk management alternatives; and informing liability assessment and investment decisions. This paper will detail the key functionality of NRAP’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM), a computational framework for assessing leakage risk and containment assurance. This model features streamlined workflows for calculating leakage risk profiles, delineating risk-based area of review, and assessing contingency plans and post-injection site care requirements. ORION is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit to help operators assess the seismic hazard at a carbon storage site. The State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT), designed to assess subsurface stress conditions and evaluate geomechanical risk resulting from CO2 injection in an area of interest will also be presented. We will also introduce a prototype model to evaluate storage project costs and liability associated with risk management. The Technoeconomic and Liability Evaluation for Storage (TALES) model uses results from forecasts of leakage and induced seismicity risk to estimate the lifecycle cost of managing risk. Finally, a preliminary example of how the NRAP Risk-based Adaptive Monitoring Plan (RAMP) tool can be used to design efficient and effective site monitoring plans and estimate the detectability of fluid leakage will be provided. The relevance of these tools for addressing key stakeholder questions amidst uncertainty will be emphasized.

decision support↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Bayesian Approach for In-Situ Stress Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification for Subsurface Engineering

Many subsurface engineering applications require accurate knowledge of the in-situ state of stress for their safe design and operation. Existing methods to meet this need primarily include field measurements for estimating one or more of the principal stresses from a borehole, or optimization methods for constructing a 3D geomechanical model in terms of geophysical measurements. These methods, however, often contain considerable uncertainty in estimating the state of stress. Here, in this paper, we build on a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty in stress estimations for subsurface engineering applications. This approach can provide an estimate of the 3D distribution of stress throughout the volume of interest and provide an estimate of the uncertainty arising from the stress measurement, the rheology parameters, and a paucity of measurements. The value of this approach is demonstrated using stress measurements from the In Salah carbon storage site, which was one of the world’s first industrial carbon capture and storage projects. This demonstration shows the application of this Bayesian approach for estimating the initial state of stress for In Salah and quantifying the uncertainty in the estimated stress. Also, an assessment of a maximum injection pressure to prevent geomechanical risks from CO 2 injection pressures is provided in terms of the probability distribution of the minimum principal stress quantified by the approach. With the In Salah case study, this paper demonstrates that using the Bayesian approach can provide additional insights for site explorations and/or project operations to make informed-site decisions for subsurface engineering applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1997

Formation of Carbon Nanotube Based Gears: Quantum Chemistry and Molecular Mechanics Study of the Electrophilic Addition of o-Benzyne to Fullerenes, Graphene, and Nanotubes

Considerable progress has been made in recent years in chemical functionalization of fullerene molecules. In some cases, the predominant reaction products are different from those obtained (using the same reactants) from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). One such example is the cycloaddition of o-benzyne to C60. It is well established that benzyne adds across one of the rings in naphthalene, anthracene and other PAHs forming the [2+4] cycloaddition product (benzobicyclo[2.2.2.]-octatriene with naphthalene and triptycene with anthracene). However, Hoke et al demonstrated that the only reaction path for o-benzyne with C60 leads to the [2+2] cycloaddition product in which benzyne adds across one of the interpentagonal bonds (forming a cyclobutene ring in the process). Either reaction product results in a loss of aromaticity and distortion of the PAH or fullerene substrate, and in a loss of strain in the benzyne. It is not clear, however, why different products are preferred in these cases. In the current paper, we consider the stability of benzyne-nanotube adducts and the ability of Brenner's potential energy model to describe the structure and stability of these adducts. The Brenner potential has been widely used for describing diamondoid and graphitic carbon. Recently it has also been used for molecular mechanics and molecular dynamics simulations of fullerenes and nanotubes. However, it has not been tested for the case of functionalized fullerenes (especially with highly strained geometries). We use the Brenner potential for our companion nanogear simulations and believe that it should be calibrated to insure that those simulations are physically reasonable. In the present work, Density Functional theory (DFT) calculations are used to determine the preferred geometric structures and energetics for this calibration. The DFT method is a kind of ab initio quantum chemistry method for determining the electronic structure of molecules. For a given basis set expansion, it is comparable in accuracy to the MP2 method (better than Hartree Fock, but less accurate than more extensive electron correlation methods such as MP4 or CCSD). However, for systems with large numbers of basis functions it more efficient than any other methods that include electron correlation effects. In this presentation we show the results of DFT calculations for the reaction of benzyne with naphthalene, C60, and nanotube models. We compare energies for [2+2] and [2+4] cycloaddition products. The preferred products for the naphthalene and C60 reactions have been determined by experiment and, thus, these cases serve as a validation of our quantum chemical approach. We also compare the DFT and Brenner potential results. Finally we can predict the likelihood of reaction between benzyne and nanotubes.

Jaffe, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constructing uniform oxygen defect engineering on primary particle level for high-stability lithium-rich cathode materials

Lithium-rich layered cathode materials are considered to be research focus of cathode candidates for next generation lithium-ion batteries due to their high specific capacity and low cost. However, lattice deoxidation associated with elemental migration and internal local shrinkage usually results in deteriorated cyclic performance and notorious voltage attenuation, severely limiting its application. In this paper, we have successfully injected uniform oxygen defects into surface region of Li 1.2 Ni 0.13 Co 0.13 Mn 0.54 O 2 primary particles under the high-pressure and weak carbonate environment. Various experimental investigations indicate that the injected robust oxygen defects can not only mitigate detrimental interfacial reactions but also suppress unfavorable lattice variation and particle breakage. More importantly, theoretical calculations unravel the critical roles of oxygen defects in regulating energy band structure for strengthened anionic reversibility. Owing to stabilization effects of unique oxygen defect engineering, the modified Li 1.2 Ni 0.13 Co 0.13 Mn 0.54 O 2 cathode has harvested dramatically enhanced electrochemical performance including a high initial coulombic efficiency of 96.6%, an outstanding capacity retention of 91.96% (1C, 200 cycles) and suppressed voltage decay of only 1.62 mV per cycle. Therefore, this facile and effective defect engineering strategy could establish new guidance for promoting practical application of Li-rich Mn-based cathode material.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards a liana plant functional type for vegetation models

Lianas (woody climbers) are crucial components of tropical forests and they have been increasingly recognized to have profound effects on tropical forest carbon dynamics. Despite their importance, lianas' representation in vegetation models remains limited, partly due to the complexity of liana-tree dynamics and the diversity in liana life history strategies. This paper provides a comprehensive review of advances and challenges for mechanistically representing lianas in forest ecosystem models and a proposed path towards effectively representing lianas in these models. Defining a liana plant functional type is a significant challenge because of the high morphological and physiological diversity amongst liana species, and because of their structural association with trees. Here, we identify critical liana traits that likely should contribute to establishing a liana plant functional type, along with key processes to properly represent lianas in ecosystem models. Subsequently, we discuss a variety of possible liana implementation strategies with their associated strengths, limitations, computational costs and data requirements. A fundamental redesign of the tree-centric demographic vegetation models seems appropriate to accommodate the unique growth and competition strategies of lianas. We illustrate the potential of such models with a single-site case study where we disentangle putative mechanisms of liana increasing abundance. Furthermore, we underscore the critical need for comprehensive liana demographic and functional data (including long-term, physiological, and pantropical observations) for the qualitative implementation and evaluation in the proposed modeling efforts. Currently, there is a scarcity of liana data and the data that do exist have a neotropical bias. We finally introduce a new liana functional trait database that can centralize existing liana trait data, incentivize improved data gathering and thus facilitate model development and scientific analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Algae Asphalt to Enhance Pavement Sustainability and Performance at Subzero Temperatures

This paper evaluates the potential of algae-derived biobinders as sustainable alternatives for pavement construction. It specifically examines the physicochemical and rheological properties of biomodified binders and their potential to offset carbon emissions when used as partial replacements for conventional petroleum-based asphalt binders. Biosequestration of CO 2 using microalgal cell factories is a promising way of recycling CO 2 into biomass via photosynthesis. Our study demonstrates that incorporating algae-derived binders into asphalt can significantly reduce carbon emissions. Each 1% increase in algae-based biobinder leads to an approximate 4.5% decrease in net carbon emissions. This indicates that a blend containing about 22% biobinder has the potential to achieve carbon neutrality. Blends with higher proportions may even result in net-negative emissions, highlighting a promising strategy for environmentally responsible road construction. In terms of performance, the study shows that certain algae-derived biobinders significantly enhance the cracking resistance of asphalt, particularly under subzero temperatures, by improving its stress-relief capacity. A key contribution of this work is the introduction of polarizability as a novel molecular-level parameter for assessing the compatibility of algae-derived bio-oils with asphalt. By capturing the electronic responsiveness of bio-oil molecules, polarizability serves as a predictive indicator of their interaction potential with asphalt components, providing a new dimension for evaluating the binder performance at the molecular scale. Among the tested materials, the biobinder derived from Haematococcus pluvialis demonstrated particularly strong improvements in resistance to permanent deformation under repeated loading conditions analogous to traffic-induced stress, as well as enhanced resistance to moisture-induced damage. In conclusion, these findings advance the chemistry-driven design of biomass-based binders and highlight a promising pathway toward the development of low-carbon, high-performance, and sustainable infrastructure materials.

Algae↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global Market and Economic Welfare Implications of Changes in Agricultural Yields Due to Climate Change

The economic welfare effects of climate change on global agriculture will be mediated by several complex biophysical and economic processes. For a given emissions scenario, these include: (1) the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing, (2) the response of crop yields to climate system and carbon dioxide changes, given baseline improvements in crop yields, (3) the response of agricultural markets to crop yield changes, and (4) the economic welfare implications of such market responses. In this paper, we use information about the first two processes from available climate-crop model comparison studies to analyze implications for the third and fourth processes. Applying the range of crop yield changes in a Global Integrated Assessment Model (GCAM) highlights several important economic relationships. First, we find a consistent relationship between global cropland area and yield change that is approximately orthogonal to the relationship between regional cropland area and yield change. Second, we find that the change in economic welfare, expressed as total surplus change per unit economic output, peaks during the 21st century. Third, we find that, at the global level, changes in yield affect both producer surplus and consumer surplus. Specifically, surplus changes to producers and consumers are always opposite in sign, although which economic actors gain or lose varies with the sign of yield change for any given commodity. Taken together, these results contribute to a growing body of research on climate-induced changes on agriculture by highlighting several economic relationships that are robust to differences in the underlying biophysical responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗