Potential air quality benefits from increased solar photovoltaic electricity generation in the Eastern United States
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Abel, David (ORCID:0000000330920919)↗
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Using Natural Gas Liquids to Recover Unconventional Oil and Gas Resources (Final Report)
This document presents final technical findings for the project Using Natural Gas Liquids to Recover Unconventional Oil and Gas Resources (FE0031782). The project is part of the U.S. Department of Energy Oil and Gas Program to develop and advance technologies that can significantly improve the recovery efficiencies of unconventional oil and gas resources. The overall objective of this project is to improve the ultimate recovery from unconventional oil and gas (UOG) resources in the United States by developing a method for using unrefined natural gas liquids (NGLs) as treatment fluids to improve hydrocarbon production. Horizontal extended-lateral drilling coupled with high volume hydraulic fracturing has significantly increased production from UOG resources in the U.S. However, the recovery efficiency is low compared to the estimated oil and gas in place. Recent data indicate that less than 10% of the oil in the liquid-rich UOG reservoirs is produced. Alternative completion methods using NGLs could increase production (Battelle, 2016; Wan et al., 2013; Wan, 2013; Downey et al, 2021); however, field validation tests are needed to develop an approach that is economical, efficient, and compatible in the UOG setting to advance towards commercial deployment. This project aims to develop and field test a method to improve recovery of oil resources in UOG shale plays by using Y-Grade NGLs, or a similar combination of NGLs, as treatment fluids. Refined NGLs have been used as a hydraulic treatment fluid in UOG plays for decades and are shown to be particularly effective because their miscibility with oil allows oil to flow more freely; however, the use of Y-Grade (unrefined) NGLs has not been studied. The use of Y-Grade NGLs would be advantageous over refined NGLs because Y-Grade NGLs do not require infrastructure or investment in refining and are already being produced from many UOG reservoirs. The concept was tested and monitored in the field at a commercial well site owned by project partner Hopco, Ltd. The project team, which consists of multiple oil and gas operators, Linde Gas North America LLC (Linde) and the Ohio Division of Geological Survey (ODGS), has extensive experience with oil and gas production in the Appalachian basin and the ability to work together quickly to solve technical issues and research needs. A key part of the proposed work was the use of existing wells for field testing and monitoring. A total of four wells (three vertical and one horizontal) were available for this project. One of the vertical wells was utilized as the test well for the NGL treatment test. A nearby vertical well was used for microseismic monitoring. The remaining vertical well and the horizontal well provided a baseline for typical UOG production in the oil window of the Utica/Point Pleasant (UPP). Major technical tasks of the project include characterization of the geotechnical properties of the UPP with an emphasis on the field site; design and planning for the NGLs testing; field testing and monitoring; analysis and integration of field data; and economic and resource/reserve assessment. The Shoman monitoring well and Doughty NGL treatment well were successfully plugged back during September-October 2020 in preparation for treatment and monitoring. A nitrogen diagnostic fracture injection test (DFIT) was completed on the Doughty well on July 22, 2021, consisting of 133,000 scf (91 Bbl.) of nitrogen. A nitrogen foam frac was completed in the Utica-Point Pleasant interval on August 17, 2021 with funding from outside sources. A microseismic monitoring array was installed in the Shoman well and monitored microseismic activity during the Doughty well frac job. Y-Grade NGL injection commenced on August 26, 2021. A total of 215 Bbl. was injected but the job was shut down due to a small leak on the suction hose on the pump truck. The Y-Grade treatment resumed on August 27, 2021 and an additional 726 Bbl. of Y-Grade NGL was injected at a well head pressure of 3850 psi. Total volume of injected Y-Grade over the two days of injection was 941 Bbl. The well was shut-in for 17 days following injection to allow the Y-Grade NGLs to soak on the formation. Y-Grade treatment flow back commenced on 9/13/2021 on a weekly basis. Production data, including surface pressures, oil, nitrogen, natural gas, and flow times was measured and recorded. Periodic gas samples were collected and analyzed to determine composition of flowback gas. As of July 2022, the treatment well had produced 726 Bbl of oil and 2,888 mcf gas. In August 2022, tubing and packer in the well were removed and a pump was installed to enhance oil recovery. Currently, the operator is producing the well about 2 days a week for a few hours. The performance of the NGL treatment test was evaluated based on reservoir simulations of the treatment process, processing of well testing data, analysis of micro seismic monitoring data, and production data analysis. This analysis suggested that oil production in the small test would continue through 2025. Upscaling the treatment to a horizontal Utica Point-Pleasant well would allow more oil recovery, but the process would involve more investment, services, and operational support. An economic analysis was conducted for scenarios aimed at upscaling the NGL treatment process for more typical horizontal UPP wells in the Appalachian Basin.
02 PETROLEUM↗
Aerial Lidar and Geomorphic Change Detection Software- Tools for Monitoring Canyon Sediments at LANL - 18668
The Los Alamos National Laboratory Environmental Remediation program has conducted extensive geomorphic surveys of sediment deposits in the canyon bottoms within and surrounding the facility. The goal of the geomorphic surveys was to provide basic information needed to characterize chemical inventories of the sediments downstream of historical release sites. Sediment units were mapped based on depositional setting and age. Representative characterization samples were collected for each unit and submitted for chemical analysis. Chemical inventories were estimated by calculating the total volume of each depositional unit and multiplying by average chemical concentration. This method of characterization provides a spatial distribution of chemical data based on fluvial processes. In general, for the canyon bottom sediments, the higher concentrations of industrial chemicals were associated with fine-grained floodplain deposits closest to the source. Since initial characterization, many of the reaches have undergone changes in response to post-wildfire floods and severe rain events. These events impacted the channel and floodplain deposits. Much of the elevated concentrations are confined to the over-bank deposits distal from the primary channel. In order to ensure that the sediment units containing elevated chemical concentrations are stable, repeat aerial light detection and ranging (LiDAR) surveys are conducted and changes are assessed using the Geomorphic Change Detection (GCD) plug-in for ArcGIS. These tools provide high confidence uncertainty estimates and extensive areal coverage. This is a valuable method for long-term monitoring of surface sediments with low-level but widespread contaminant distributions. All of the monitored canyon bottom reaches pass risk assessment and present technically infeasible sediment removal options. Following the 2014 monsoon season, aerial LiDAR data has been collected annually and the resulting digital elevation models (DEMs) processed using the GCD method. Changes are identified using GCD and are verified by field walk downs. If erosion is identified in areas which are vulnerable to mobilizing contaminated sediment, enhanced controls can be installed to stabilize banks or other areas with high erosion potential. Annual sediment monitoring samples are collected where there is evidence for flow and deposition within the past year. Since 2014, no severe floods have been catalogued using the LiDAR surveys and GCD software. The recent rainfall/runoff events have not caused major changes to the canyon bottom channels and floodplains. Geomorphic processes identified in the monitoring results include channel aggradation and incision that over the course of a monsoon season results in minor changes to the system. Other active processes contributing to observed changes are minor slides, flows, slumps, and falls of unconsolidated sediment on steep bedrock or soil surfaces. A comprehensive baseline has been established by geomorphic mapping and characterization sampling. Periodic monitoring consists of LiDAR surveys and GCD analysis which offers an effective and defensible methodology for documenting stability of surface sediments. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
An Architectural Survey of the Test Cell C Historic District, Area 25, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada
The U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Field Office (NNSA/NFO) has authorized an updated recording and evaluation of Test Cell C. This facility is part of the former Nuclear Rocket Development Station (NRDS) in Area 25 of Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in Nye County, Nevada (formerly the Nevada Test Site [NTS]). Future alterations to the facility are anticipated to meet current and future National Weapons Science, Global and Homeland Security Programs, and Environmental Management mission requirements. Therefore, this survey was done to comply with requirements of Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act and its implementing regulations, 36 C.F.R. Part 800. An architectural survey of 35.75 acres was completed by Desert Research Institute (DRI). This area also represents the potential Test Cell C Historic District and is identified by NNSA/NFO as the Area of Potential Effect (APE) within which the undertaking may directly cause alterations to the character of historic properties. One resource, Building 25-3210 (SHPO Resource No. B2444), within this area was previously surveyed by DRI. It was found eligible for inclusion in the National Register of Historic Places (NRHP or National Register) under Criteria A and C, and Consideration G. Mitigation of this building was completed prior to its demolition. The APE for reasonably foreseeable effects that may indirectly cause alterations later in time, be farther removed in distance, or be cumulative is the unrecorded NRDS historic district. The present survey updates the previous survey to present standards and expands it to include the entire Test Cell C complex. This includes updated recording and evaluation of the remains of 25-3210 and its 32 previously unrecorded and unevaluated Accessory Resources. The entire complex was recorded as the Test Cell C Historic District (SHPO Resource No. D346), which is eligible for the National Register at the National Level under Criteria A, C, and D. All nine architectural resources in the district are recommended as contributing elements of the Test Cell C Historic District (Figure 2). Of these, four (25-3210 Resource No. B2444, 25-3220 SHPO Resource No. B18110, 25-3226 SHPO Resource No. B18111, and 25-3230-32 SHPO Resource No. B18114) are recommended as individually eligible to the National Register under Criteria A and C, and one (KIWI-TNT [Transient Nuclear Test] SHPO Resource No. S2287) is recommended as individually eligible under Criteria A, C, and D. The remaining four resources (25-3214 SHPO Resource No. B18109, 25-3228 SHPO Resource No. B18112, 25-3229 SHPO Resource No. B18113, and 25-3233 SHPO Resource No. 18115) are not recommended as individually eligible. In addition, the Test Cell C Historic District is regarded as a contributor to the potential national significance of the NRDS Historic District. In 2010, the NTS became the NNSS. Because of the nature of the discussion in the Historic Context below, “NTS” is used throughout that section, otherwise “NNSS” is used to refer to the site. The survey area is located in unplatted sections of T13S R51E Mount Diablo Baseline and Meridian (projected) in Area 25 of the NNSS. It is within the NRDS in Jackass Flats, which has long been recognized as a potential historic district. An oblique aerial photo of the Test Cell C complex is shown on the cover of this report.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A Clean Energy Deployment Baseline for the Energy Community and Low-Income Tax Credit Bonuses [Slides]
The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 introduced, for the first time, place-based federal tax incentives for projects sited in “Energy Communities,” potentially changing the economic calculus of where projects are best sited. Storage projects can qualify for a 10-percentage-point bonus to the Investment Tax Credit (e.g., from 30% to 40%), while wind and solar projects may qualify for either the ITC bonus or a 10% bonus to the Production Tax Credit (e.g., from $\$27.5$ to $\$30.25$/MWh). Energy Communities are areas with historical ties to fossil fuel industries and above average unemployment levels (FFEU), with closed coal mines or power plants, or contaminated properties. They seek to identify locations across the US that could especially benefit from economic revitalization. This report explores how the new federal tax credit incentives are impacting clean energy deployment patterns and establishes historical baselines against which future changes can be compared. We include a few case studies of clean energy projects going specifically to areas that were recently impacted by coal power plant closures to provide concrete examples of investments in Energy Communities. However, this publication does not assess how much of the incentive benefits pass from clean energy developers to hosting communities, nor does it offer a comprehensive view of the economic effects of clean energy deployment on Energy Communities. Key highlights include: - As clean energy projects take multiple years to conceptualize and develop, it is likely too early to see shifts towards Energy Community locations either among newly built projects or those that entered interconnection queues in 2023. - Approximately 35% of onshore wind, 50% of solar, and 60% of storage capacity built in 2023 and the first half of 2024 are located in Energy Communities, making them likely eligible for bonus incentives. While these bonus incentives were not available to projects coming online before 2023, we used 2023 Energy Community definitions to classify whether past projects were built in what is now considered an Energy Community. The deployment levels for 2023-2024 are similar to recent years (2020-2022) for solar and storage but slightly lower for wind. - Clean energy capacity has surged in the interconnection queues over the last few years, with about 45-50% of both recently proposed and total queued capacity being located in Energy Communities. While the amount of capacity in Energy Communities has also grown, its relative share is either stable (solar and storage) or slightly lower (wind) among projects that entered the queue in 2023. - Clean energy projects can be built at lower costs in Energy Communities. The levelized cost of energy after incentives was on average $\$9$/MWh (24%) lower for solar projects and $\$2$/MWh (6%) lower for wind projects built in 2023, relative to projects not located in Energy Communities. Wholesale electricity values at Energy Community locations relative to the rest of the market vary by region. The average value was often higher for wind projects (-$\$3$ to $\$11$/MWh) but lower for solar projects (-$\$6$ to 0/MWh). - Distributed solar that is owned by commercial entities is eligible for the Energy Community bonus and also, potentially, a Low-Income Community bonus. Residential solar installations in qualifying Energy Communities that are third-party owned represent about 10% of the total residential market. Larger commercial and industrial solar installations in Energy Communities make up 17% of the total market in 2023. Nearly 2 GW of distributed solar was built in areas qualifying as Low-Income Communities in 2023, exceeding the available annual program cap of 700 MW. Continued tracking of these trends will be important for system planners, investors, and local communities.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Integral Experiment Final Design for Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) Plutonium Additional Mixed Spectrum Configurations
This report presents the final design (CED-2) for three additional mixed-spectra configurations for plutonium Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) to target the intermediate energy region (IER-553). The baseline cases of IER-184 (PU-MET-MIXED-002 [2]) spanned the entire fission energy spectrum. Case 3, which had a median fission energy (MFE) of approximately 6E-5 MeV and had a fission fraction of about 42% in the intermediate energy range, resulted in a $k_{eff}$ overestimation of 1.1%. Compared to 749 previous ICSBEP plutonium benchmarks, the baseline cases accurately predicted the experiments in the thermal and fast regions where the majority of benchmarks inhabit. The benchmarks in the intermediate energy region to date are sparse and overestimate $k_{eff}$ with an average C/E between 1.02 and 1.03. The additional proposed configurations span the whole of the intermediate energy region. The experimental design utilizes the plutonium/aluminum metal alloy Zero Power Physics Reactor (ZPPR) Plutonium-Aluminum No-Nickel (PANN) plates with varying polyethylene moderator thicknesses to span the intermediate fission energy region. Each of the cases have varying fractions of thermal, intermediate, and fast fissions. The designs were chosen to maximize the intermediate energy fraction. The experiment will take place on the universal critical assembly machine, Planet. The layers will be split as equally as possible between the lower platen and the upper stationary platform of Planet. The upper half of the experimental configuration will also have an upper reflector of polyethylene of specified thicknesses to achieve criticality when the lower platen is raised fully. The previous IER-184 configurations, specifically Case 3, were used to determine the configurations for the additional experiments and neutronics calculations were used to fine-tune the configurations to ensure criticality. The quadrature sum uncertainty in Δ$k_{eff}$ for Case 3 in PU-MET-MIXED-002 was found to be 0.00219. Section 3.8 gives a detailed description of the uncertainties calculated. The additional configurations, which are based directly on Case 3, are expected to have similar uncertainties. However, it is possible to reduce the overall uncertainty of Δ$k_{eff}$ for the additional configurations using the knowledge obtained from the calculations in the benchmark.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Validation of FSP Reactor Design with Sensitivity Studies of Beryllium-Reflected Critical Assemblies
The baseline design for space nuclear power is a fission surface power (FSP) system: sodium-potassium (NaK) cooled, fast spectrum reactor with highly-enriched-uranium (HEU)-O 2 fuel, stainless steel (SS) cladding, and beryllium reflectors with B4C control drums. Previous studies were performed to evaluate modeling capabilities and quantify uncertainties and biases associated with analysis methods and nuclear data. Comparison of Zero Power Plutonium Reactor (ZPPR)-20 benchmark experiments with the FSP design indicated that further reduction of the total design model uncertainty requires the reduction in uncertainties pertaining to beryllium and uranium cross-section data. Further comparison with three beryllium-reflected HEU-metal benchmark experiments performed at the Oak Ridge Critical Experiments Facility (ORCEF) concluded the requirement that experimental validation data have similar cross section sensitivities to those found in the FSP design. A series of critical experiments was performed at ORCEF in the 1960s to support the Medium Power Reactor Experiment (MPRE) space reactor design. The small, compact critical assembly (SCCA) experiments were graphite- or beryllium-reflected assemblies of SS-clad, HEU-O 2 fuel on a vertical lift machine. All five configurations were evaluated as benchmarks. Two of the five configurations were beryllium reflected, and further evaluated using the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis capabilities of SCALE 6.1. Validation of the example FSP design model was successful in reducing the primary uncertainty constituent, the Be(n,n) reaction, from 0.28 %$\delta$k/k to 0.0004 %$\delta$k/k. Further assessment of additional reactor physics measurements performed on the SCCA experiments may serve to further validate FSP design and operation.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Austin Sustainable and Holistic Integration of Energy Storage and Solar PV [Austin SHINES]. Final Report, Version 2
The Austin SHINES project and solution is a software management platform, for an electric grid with a high penetration of dispersed photovoltaic (PV) solar generation sites, which maintains the traditional power quality and reliability associated with grid service. This project developed and deployed the platform as a Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS), engaging multiple advanced controls, to evaluate operation and optimization of a fleet of diverse DER assets, installed at several locations among Austin Energy’s customers and distribution system. The project also produced a methodology to create a replicable DERMS template, adaptable to other regions and market structures. Last, Austin SHINES aimed to demonstrate the solution’s methodology would enable the DER grid ecosystem to serve load at a technical cost (System Levelized Cost of Electricity, or System LCOE) of less than the U.S. Department of Energy SHINES program metric of $0.14/kWh, in a defined boundary, while enabling a high penetration of distributed PV. Research was categorized in 6 reports (Final Deliverables = FD) listed below, with titles and descriptions indicating which area of understanding was investigated: FD-1: System Levelized Cost of Electricity (System LCOE) Methodology The creation and use of the System LCOE to Serve Load metric that encompasses the holistic, system-level costs and benefits of all resources, and enables them to be evaluated based on their ability to support an efficient and low-cost integrated grid ecosystem. FD-2: Software Platform Product Description The creation of new DER control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform that enable DER's to maximize their benefit within a grid, that is capable of serving load enabling a high penetration of distributed PV generation. FD-3: Optimal Design Methodology Optimal design methodologies for individual DER installations that enable utilities to determine the optimal combinations and sizing for individual DER sites. FD-4: Austin SHINES Ownership and Operation Models for DER System Performance A comparison of multiple DER aggregation and ownership methodologies including direct utility control, third-party aggregator, and autonomous. FD-5: Economic Modeling & Optimization A comparison of multiple DER technology mixes and configurations within the distribution system, providing insight into an optimal blend of technologies that best enable the distribution system to serve load at the lowest cost at high penetrations of solar. FD-6: Fielded Assets Deployed DER assets within the Austin Energy SHINES circuits. Austin SHINES provided an opening for state-of-the-art technology products to be deployed, providing a rich opportunity for improving how each of the products perform as stand-alone products, and in concert with other complementary products. The Austin SHINES project comprised of two key metrics for System LCOE: SystemLCOE_SHINES<$0.14/kWh Modeled ΔSystemLCOE_SHINES/ΔSystemLCOE_Base≥20% at same solar penetration The System LCOE calculation uses the costs of the utility-owned infrastructure as it exists today, the cost of the DERs that exist in the system today, and the cost of the purchase of energy from ERCOT wholesale markets over the course of the calendar year. All costs are on an annualized basis. The capital and operating costs are derived from the rate case, which produces a yearly cost. The net cost of energy and services imported to the system is integrated over the test year, as is the load served and solar penetration. The first metric was easily achieved by every scenario considered. The goal was set when the Department of Energy’s SHINES Funding Opportunity Announcement was written in 2015 and was a more difficult target at the time. Due mostly to rapidly declining costs for DERs and the significant decrease in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy market prices, which results in lower net cost of energy purchases, the System LCOE is well below this target for all scenarios considered. A fleet of DERs can assume different mixtures, each of which serves the load at a different LCOE. The optimal mixture of DERs serves load at the smallest System LCOE. The second metric (hereinafter %delta metric) asks that the holistic DERMS controls reduce the incremental cost above the baseline of going to a high solar penetration future by at least 20% as compared to the case of a DER deployment with no sophisticated controls (autonomous). Many comparison sets were created throughout this project. Physical technology was installed for informing utility engineering and testing several types of operational control schemes, through the DERMS. The types of operational control which were compared for valuation of the System LCOE Metric were: Holistic control = using the full suite of the DERMS platform to decide and optimize how/why the systems operate depending on weather, market, and reliability signal input. Autonomous control = a local mode at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only No control = the baseline for comparing value against the other two types of control The types of ownership control included: Direct Utility control = the utility dispatches a signal to each asset Third-Party Aggregator = a third party aggregates a fleet of assets and the utility dispatches one signal for all Autonomous = a local mode is set for operation at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only The types of control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform included: Utility Peak Load Reduction = Lower transmission cost obligation Day-Ahead Energy Arbitrage = Realize economic value through price differential Real-Time Price Dispatch = Realize economic value from real-time price spikes Voltage support = Reduce losses and increase solar generation Distribution Congestion Management = Increase local grid reliability Demand Charge Reduction = Lower customer bills and realize system benefit The fielded assets deployed for the project were: Utility Scale Kingsbery Energy Storage System: 1.5 MW / 3 MWh Li-Ion battery storage Mueller Energy Storage System: 1.75 MW / 3.2 MWh Li-Ion battery storage, 7 Energy Storage Units (250 kW each) La Loma Community Solar: 2.6 MW Commercial Scale Aggregated storage installations at 3 sites, with existing solar (300+ kW): One 18 kW / 36 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Two 72 kW / 144 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Residential Scale Aggregated storage installations: -Six stationary battery storage systems (10 kWh each) at homes with existing solar -One Electric Vehicle installed as Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Utility-Controlled Solar via Smart Inverters at 12 homes Autonomously-Controlled Smart Inverters at 6 homes Over the course of the project, Austin SHINES undertook installing more than 3 MW of distributed battery energy storage, smart PV inverters, a DER control platform, and other enabling technologies utilizing customer and utility locations and aggregation models. All of these resources were to be integrated and optimized at the utility level. DER assets and control methodologies were designed to achieve a credible pathway to a System LCOE for energy delivered to load of $0.14//kWh or less by 2020, while maximizing distributed solar generation and maintaining acceptable standards of power quality. The project also established a template for other regions to follow, to maximize the adoption of distributed solar PV in support of an economic and efficient grid. In total, the Austin SHINES project added value to the DER subject area in each layer of integration. From utility, to commercial to residential scales, the sheer hierarchy of communication and coordination was a significant accomplishment in addition to learnings from what these communications revealed was unique to each. Economically, the most effective method demonstrated was the criticality of planning phases. Contingencies and multiple projection scenarios helped guide the project to deploy optimal design as close as feasible, in real world conditions. The project and reports will serve public benefit by outlining specific areas of DER strategy and installation where many stakeholders and needs can be addressed with improved efficiency. Overall, communities and utilities should use the results to guide the increasing options available for powering the grid with DER, renewables, and carbon considerate energy.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Scaling Equitable Finance
Driven by dramatic declines in up-front cost, the U.S. solar photovoltaics (PV) industry has taken off over the past decade, growing from 1 gigawatt of installed capacity in 2009 to 89 gigawatts in 2020—or enough capacity to power roughly 19 million homes. The industry is expected to double in size over just the next 5 years.1 Much of the growth has been driven by large, utility-scale projects that can produce 5 mega- watts or more of power—enough to power at least 1,000 homes. The cost of electricity produced by these projects has decreased by more than 70 percent since 2010. As of Q3 2020, development costs of large, util- ity-scale solar PV power plants were under $1 per watt, down by more than 70 percent from 2010.2 A robust array of investors has come forward to efficiently deliver capital to these kinds of utility-scale projects including large banks, insurance companies, pension funds, and others. But low- and moderate-income communities, including communities of color, are at risk of being left behind in the transition to clean energy. Mission- driven solar project developers and financial institu- tions have been working alongside energy justice advocates to open up solar access for these communi- ties, using strategies ranging from community solar, to solar installations on affordable multifamily housing, to distributed solar and storage programs, and more. Their goals go beyond simply generating more green energy to advancing social equity by: • empowering communities to control their energy future • stabilizing energy prices, saving money, and build- ing wealth for low-income families • creating quality jobs • improving health by reducing pollution • providing energy resilience for vulnerable communities Mission-driven actors are successfully deploying a wide variety of strategies to meet these goals, from helping low-income homeowners get solar—and some- times battery storage, to developing solar projects serv- ing affordable rental housing and community facilities, to building larger “shared solar” projects to which households from across the community can subscribe. However, the financing ecosystem does not work nearly as well for these “mission driven” solar proj- ects as it does for utility-scale projects. For home rooftop solar, even if low-income consumers have a home and suitable roof, they may fail to qualify for federal tax incentives, lack adequate credit to qualify for a loan—or the mission-driven lenders seeking to serve them may not be adequately capitalized to make long-term loans. For mission-driven commercial or community-scale projects, assembling nearly every component of the project capital stack—whether bridging early-stage costs, attracting tax credit equity investors, securing long-term debt, or coming up with sponsor equity and filling gaps—can present challenges. A variety of obstacles contribute to the scarcity of financing for low-income solar, including small project sizes, lack of developer balance sheet capacity, both real and perceived issues with credit risk, elevated technical assistance needs, and greater subsidy requirements to pursue goals such as deep energy affordability, climate resilience, or job creation. Still other obstacles are regulatory: for example, not all states allow community solar projects or Power Purchase Agreements, common strategies used for providing low-income solar—and the potential for regulations to shift over time creates risks that mission-driven projects can ill afford. This report synthesizes information garnered from 47 key informant interviews, four focus group discus- sions involving 60 stakeholders, and a review of the substantial existing literature on low-income solar finance to assess the current landscape of mission- driven solar development in the United States, examine the roles that community-based financial institutions could play, and recommend public invest- ments and policy changes that could help to scale the provision of equitable solar finance. Key recommen- dations for policymakers and funders in the renew- able energy and community development fields that emerge from this process include the following: • Help to capitalize and support community-based lenders to provide flexible, low-cost, and long- term financing to mission-driven solar projects— including providing guarantees or other forms of credit enhancement. • Provide federal support for equitable solar, including a grant-in-lieu-of-credits option for the Investment Tax Credit to improve access to this critical government subsidy. • Develop pools of government and philanthropic support that can complement financing from community-based lenders to complete the capi- tal stack for mission-driven projects, as well as to support education and technical assistance to both consumers and potential project sponsors. • Create a national Renewable Energy Credits pro- gram that includes social equity targets to provide a baseline of support for clean energy generation. • Change utility regulations to remove barriers to low-income solar projects; lower permitting costs; provide greater certainty for developers, consumers and owners; and measure progress toward equity in renewable energy policy implementation.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
World Record Earned Value Management System Certification for Cleanup of the East Tennessee Technology Park, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA - 13181
On projects that require Earned Value Management (EVMS) Certification, it is critical to quickly prepare for and then successfully obtain certification. This is especially true for government contracts. Projects that do poorly during the review are subject to financial penalties to their company and they lose creditability with their customer creating problems with the project at the outset. At East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP), we began preparing for Department of Energy (DOE) certification early during proposal development. Once the contract was awarded, while still in transition phase from the previous contractor to our new company, we immediately began reviewing the project controls systems that were in place on the project and determined if any replacements needed to be made immediately. The ETTP contract required the scheduling software to be upgraded to Primavera P6 and we determined that no other software changes would be done prior to certification. Next, preparation of the Project Controls System Description (PCSD) and associated procedures began using corporate standards as related to the project controls systems. During the transition phase, development was started on the Performance Measurement Baseline which is the resource loaded schedule used to measure our performance on the project and which is critical to good Earned Value Management of the project. Early on, and throughout the baseline review, there was positive feedback from the Department of Energy that the quality of the new baseline was good. Having this superior baseline also contributed to our success in EVMS certification. The combined companies of URS and CH2M Hill had recent experience with certifications at other Department of Energy sites and we were able to capitalize on that knowledge and experience. Generic PCSD and procedures consistent with our co-operations approach to Earned Value Management were available to us and were easily tailorable to the specifics of our contract and site. We also had corporate EVMS experts available to us so as to draw upon their recent certification experiences with lessons learned. This knowledge was especially helpful for training of personnel that were involved in the certification which included Project Controls, Project Management and Control Account Managers. We were also able to bring in these corporate experts to assist with our training efforts. To assure our readiness for the review, we conducted a 'White Hat' review. The 'White Hat' team consisted of corporate experts in EVMS along with an industry expert in EVMS from Humphrey and Associates. This review identified early any weaknesses that we had so corrections could be enacted prior to the EVMS Certification Readiness Review. It also helped give the evaluators confidence that we had done proper due diligence prior to their arrival. Also critical to our success, was early communication with our evaluators. It is important to start the communications early to ensure you understand the expectations of the certification team and the process that will be used during the certification. Communication through the entire process is critical to understand expectations and issues along the way. Very important to the overall process was management commitment, support and reinforcement. Management made sure that all personnel involved knew the importance and made preparations a priority. This was noted as a key strength by the evaluators during the out-brief. As a result of our preparation, our review yielded one Corrective Action Report (CAR) and two Continuous Improvement Opportunities (CIOs). The Certification team in their out-brief explained that this was the lowest number of CARs and CIOs in the history of EVMS certifications in the DOE Complex. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Effect of Nuclear Data Covariances on Integral Experiment Design with Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis
Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) uses MCNP6.2 and the Whisper code for criticality safety analyses of the Hanford Tank Farm. Together the codes derive baseline upper subcritical limits (USLs) for the waste models using experimental benchmarks. Whisper returns higher USLs, i.e. , has less of a conservative penalty, when the neutronic similarity of the experimental benchmarks to the application is high. Unfortunately, few critical benchmarks have high similarity to the Hanford tanks. The waste in the tanks is highly dilute in plutonium and contains large masses of weakly neutron-absorbing elements like iron and manganese. Experimental benchmarks typically have low sensitivity to these absorbers because they are present as structural materials. Lacking similar benchmarks, new Thermal Epithermal eXperiment (TEX) configurations with high Pu content and interstitial iron absorbers have been designed for the criticality safety validation. The features of the design have been iterated upon to maximize the similarity between the experiment and different Hanford waste models. The similarity is quantified with sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification using the representativity coefficient, or c k . The representativity calculation requires nuclear data covariances, which may differ between nuclear data libraries and between library versions. Because of these variations, the optimal design may depend on the nuclear data covariances library. A scenario can be envisioned where an experiment is designed, and c k is maximized, with one set of covariance data. However, when the covariance data is changed, say from ENDF/B-VII.1 to ENDF/B-VIII.0, and the benchmark is used in a criticality safety evaluation, the experiment becomes suboptimal with respect to c k . In this paper, we present how the optimal design of the new TEX experiments varied depending on the nuclear data covariances used to calculate c k . We compare ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0, as if the library had been updated since the design of the experiment. Additionally, we use JEFF3.3 to simulate if the covariance data of a different library had been used. The results show that the covariances do have an important effect on the designs, less so for thermal systems (where the data are more consistent between evaluations) and more so for epithermal systems where more differences exist.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
The Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) Data
In the ALE/GAGE/AGAGE global network program, continuous high frequency gas chromatographic measurements of four biogenic/anthropogenic gases (methane, CH4; nitrous oxide, N2O; hydrogen, H2; and carbon monoxide, CO) and several anthropogenic gases that contribute to stratospheric ozone destruction and/or to the greenhouse effect have been carried out at five globally distributed sites for several years. The program, which began in 1978, is divided into three parts associated with three changes in instrumentation: the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE), which used Hewlett Packard HP5840 gas chromatographs; the Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE), which used HP5880 gas chromatographs; and the present Advanced GAGE (AGAGE). AGAGE uses two types of instruments: a gas chromatograph with multiple detectors (GC-MD), and a gas chromatograph with mass spectrometric analysis (GC-MS). Beginning in January 2004, an improved cryogenic preconcentration system (Medusa) replaced the absorption-desorption module in the GC-MS systems at Mace Head and Cape Grim; this provided improved capability to measure a broader range of volatile perfluorocarbons with high global warming potentials. The Medusa GC-MS systems were subsequently used at other AGAGE stations (Trinidad Head, Barbados, American Samoa, Zeppelin, Jungfraujoch, and Goan) after the initial setup at Mace Head and Cape Grim. More information may be found at the AGAGE home page: https://agage.mit.edu/instruments.Compared to the previous version (https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi: doi:10.15485/1781803), the latest update (Agage_gcmd_gcms.data.2022_01_03.tar.gz) includes 6 months of new data through the end of September 2020. For a complete list of released compounds and used standard scales, please see “AGAGE_scale_2021_v1.pdf” file. Additional information can also be found on the AGAGE website (https://agage.mit.edu).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
In-situ measurements of chemically and radiatively important atmospheric gases from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gas Experiment (AGAGE) and affiliated stations.
In the ALE/GAGE/AGAGE global network program, continuous high frequency gas chromatographic measurements of four biogenic/anthropogenic gases (methane, CH4; nitrous oxide, N2O; hydrogen, H2; and carbon monoxide, CO) and several anthropogenic gases that contribute to stratospheric ozone destruction and/or to the greenhouse effect have been carried out at five globally distributed sites for several years. The program, which began in 1978, is divided into three parts associated with three changes in instrumentation: the Atmospheric Lifetime Experiment (ALE), which used Hewlett Packard HP5840 gas chromatographs; the Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (GAGE), which used HP5880 gas chromatographs; and the present Advanced GAGE (AGAGE). AGAGE uses two types of instruments: a gas chromatograph with multiple detectors (GC-MD), and a gas chromatograph with mass spectrometric analysis (GC-MS). Beginning in January 2004, an improved cryogenic preconcentration system (Medusa) replaced the absorption-desorption module in the GC-MS systems at Mace Head and Cape Grim; this provided improved capability to measure a broader range of volatile perfluorocarbons with high global warming potentials. The Medusa GC-MS systems were subsequently used at other AGAGE stations (Trinidad Head, Barbados, American Samoa, Zeppelin, Jungfraujoch, and Goan) after the initial setup at Mace Head and Cape Grim. More information may be found at the AGAGE home page: https://agage.mit.edu/instruments.Compared to the previous version (https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/view/doi:10.3334/CDIAC/ATG.DB1001), the latest update (Agage_gcmd_gcms_data_2021_04_07_tar.gz) includes 6 months of new data through the end of March 2020. Two new compounds, HCFC-132b, and HCFC-133a, are also included in this version. For a complete list of released compounds and used standard scales, please see “AGAGE_scale_2021_v1.pdf” file. Additional information can also be found on the AGAGE website (https://agage.mit.edu).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Probing jet base emission of M87* with the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope observations
We investigate the presence and spatial characteristics of the jet base emission in M87* at 230 GHz, enabled by the significantly enhanced (u,v) coverage in the 2021 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations. The integration of the 12−m Kitt Peak Telescope (USA) and NOEMA (France) stations into the array introduces two critical intermediate-length baselines to SMT (USA) and IRAM 30−m (Spain), providing sensitivity to emission structures at spatial scales of ∼250 μas and ∼2500 μas (∼ 0.02 pc and ∼ 0.02 pc). Without these new baselines, previous EHT observations of the source in 2017 and 2018 lacked the capability to constrain emission on large scales, where a “missing flux” of order ∼1 Jy is expected to reside. To probe these scales, we analyzed closure phases–robust against station-based gain calibration errors–and model the jet base emission using a simple Gaussian component offset from the compact ring emission at spatial separations > 100 μas. Our analysis revealed a Gaussian feature centered at (ΔRA ≈ 320 μ as, ΔDec. ≈ 60 μ as), projected separation of ≈ 5500 AU, with an estimated flux density of only ∼60 mJy, implying that most of the missing flux identified in previous EHT studies had to originate from different, larger scales. Brighter emission at the relevant spatial scales is firmly ruled out, and the data do not favor more complex models. This component aligns with the inferred position of the large-scale jet and is therefore physically consistent with the emission of the jet base. While our findings point to detectable jet base emission at 230 GHz, the limited coverage provided by only two intermediate baselines limits our ability to robustly reconstruct its morphology. Consequently, we treated the recovered Gaussian as an upper limit on the jet base flux density. Future EHT observations with expanded intermediate baseline coverage will be essential to constrain the structure and nature of this component with higher precision.
accretion, accretion disks↗
Locating the missing large-scale emission in the jet of M87* with short EHT baselines
In very-long baseline interferometric arrays, nearly co-located stations probe the largest scales and typically cannot resolve the observed source. In the absence of a large-scale structure, closure phases constructed with these stations are zero and, since they are independent of station-based errors, they can be used to probe data issues. Here, we show how these trivial closure phases become nonzero with a brightness distribution on smaller scales than their short baseline would suggest. When applied to sources that are made up of a bright compact and large-scale diffuse component, the trivial closure phases directly measure the centroid relative to the compact source and higher-order image moments. We present a technique to measure these image moments with minimal model assumptions and validate it on synthetic Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) data. We then apply this technique to 2017 and 2018 EHT observations of M87* and find a weak preference for extended emission in the direction of the large-scale jet. We also apply it to 2021 EHT data and measure the source centroid about 1 mas northwest of the compact ring, which is consistent with the jet observed at lower frequencies.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗