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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collectedunder structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore,their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distanceto the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensembleof trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fittingobserved in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inversephysical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of thesource strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations ofunderlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗

DOE OSTI2024

Profitability, Scalability and Optimized Siting for Waste-to-Energy Supply Chains: A Case Study on Hydrothermal Liquefaction

Waste-to-Energy (WtE) conversion technologies have the potential to simultaneously reduce waste volumes, treatment-related emissions, and carbon intensity while producing valuable energy services. However, questions remain regarding under which conditions emerging WtE technologies are feasible to deploy. In this project, we develop an optimized siting method for WtE technologies to assess cost-effective WtE processor locations, throughput scales, and profitability. We apply the model using Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL) as an example WtE technology. We develop calibrated capital and operating expense cost curves based on literature data to study the techno-economic characteristics of WtE supply chains. Prior to solving the siting optimization, we analyze the model parameters to describe organic waste management system behavior under four different HTL deployment configurations: Co-Processing, where HTL plants send biocrude to existing conventional refineries via assumed pipelines; Co-Location, where biorefineries are co-located with HTL plants; and two alternative Standalone Biorefining cases, where distributed HTL plants transport biocrude intermediate via either assumed pipelines or trucking to centralized biorefineries. We also define and apply several feedstock gate fee calculations, representing different revenue distribution options, to investigate how bioproduct value could impact WtE supply chain economics in terms of waste producer and processor profit or cost reduction.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Global field reconstruction from sparse sensors with Veronoi tessellation-assisted deep learning

Achieving accurate and robust global situational awareness of a complex time-evolving field from a limited number of sensors has been a longstanding challenge. This reconstruction problem is especially difficult when sensors are sparsely positioned in a seemingly random or unorganized manner, which is often encountered in a range of scientific and engineering problems. Moreover, these sensors can be in motion and can become online or offline over time. The key leverage in addressing this scientific issue is the wealth of data accumulated from the sensors. As a solution to this problem, we propose a data-driven spatial field recovery technique founded on a structured grid-based deep-learning approach for arbitrary positioned sensors of any numbers. It should be noted that the naïve use of machine learning becomes prohibitively expensive for global field reconstruction and is furthermore not adaptable to an arbitrary number of sensors. In the present work, we consider the use of Voronoi tessellation to obtain a structured-grid representation from sensor locations enabling the computationally tractable use of convolutional neural networks. One of the central features of the present method is its compatibility with deep-learning based super-resolution reconstruction techniques for structured sensor data that are established for image processing. The proposed reconstruction technique is demonstrated for unsteady wake flow, geophysical data, and three-dimensional turbulence. The current framework is able to handle an arbitrary number of moving sensors, and thereby overcomes a major limitation with existing reconstruction methods. The presented technique opens a new pathway towards the practical use of neural networks for real-time global field estimation.

Fukami, Kai↗

DOE OSTI2021

Object discrimination based on a swarm of agents

A configuration system for identifying a target configuration of agents for acquiring data is provided. In some embodiments, the configuration system generates sample configurations, each of which has a location within the space for each agent. The configuration system selects as the target configuration a sample configuration that is suitable to acquire data. The configuration system selects the target configuration by, for at least one or more sample configurations, directing that the agents assume the sample configuration and then acquire data when in the sample configuration. The configuration system then stores, for each sample configuration, an indication of suitability for acquiring data based on the sample configuration. The configuration system selects a sample configuration that is deemed to be suitable as the target configuration.

Beer, Neil Reginald↗

DOE OSTI2021

Directional infrasound sensing using acoustic metamaterials

Natural and anthropogenic infrasound may travel vast distances, making it an invaluable resource for monitoring phenomena such as nuclear explosions, volcanic eruptions, severe storms, and many others. Typically, these waves are captured using pressure sensors, which cannot encode the direction of arrival—critical information when the source location is not known beforehand. Obtaining this information therefore requires arrays of sensors with apertures ranging from tens of meters to kilometers depending on the wavelengths of interest. This is often impractical in locations that lack the necessary real estate (urban areas, rugged regions, or remote islands); in any case, it requires multiple power, digitizer, and telemetry deployments. In this work, the theoretical basis behind a compact infrasound direction of arrival sensor based on the acoustic metamaterials is presented. This sensor occupies a footprint that is orders of magnitude smaller than the span of a typical infrasound array. The diminutive size of the unit greatly expands the locations where it can be deployed. The sensor design is described, its ability to determine the direction of arrival is evaluated, and further avenues of study are suggested.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Adaptation Strategies Strongly Reduce the Future Impacts of Climate Change on Simulated Crop Yields

Abstract Simulations of crop yield due to climate change vary widely between models, locations, species, management strategies, and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To understand how climate and adaptation affects yield change, we developed a meta‐model based on 8703 site‐level process‐model simulations of yield with different future adaptation strategies and climate scenarios for maize, rice, wheat and soybean. We tested 10 statistical models, including some machine learning models, to predict the percentage change in projected future yield relative to the baseline period (2000–2010) as a function of explanatory variables related to adaptation strategy and climate change. We used the best model to produce global maps of yield change for the RCP4.5 scenario and identify the most influential variables affecting yield change using Shapley additive explanations. For most locations, adaptation was the most influential factor determining the projected yield change for maize, rice and wheat. Without adaptation under RCP4.5, all crops are expected to experience average global yield losses of 6%–21%. Adaptation alleviates this average projected loss by 1–13 percentage points. Maize was most responsive to adaptive practices with a projected mean yield loss of −21% [range across locations: −63%, +3.7%] without adaptation and −7.5% [range: −46%, +13%] with adaptation. For maize and rice, irrigation method and cultivar choice were the adaptation types predicted to most prevent large yield losses, respectively. When adaptation practices are applied, some areas are predicted to experience yield gains, especially at northern high latitudes. These results reveal the critical importance of implementing adequate adaptation strategies to mitigate the impact of climate change on crop yields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Vehicle Tracking with Crop-based Detection

End-to-end production of vehicle tracking data from video in real-time and with high accuracy remains a challenging problem due to the computational cost of object detection on each frame. In this work we present Tracking with Crop-based Detection, a method for speeding object tracking in constrained contexts (with stable cameras and relatively-predictable object motion) such as vehicle traffic monitoring. We leverage this context to provide a strong prior for object locations, which we use to 1.) boost detection speed by detecting objects only in regions corresponding to object priors on most frames and 2.) inform the selection of the detector output for each object. We evaluate Crop-based Detection as an extension to the KIOU object tracker (Crop-KIOU) on the UA-DETRAC dataset. The proposed tracker outperforms all other reported algorithms in terms of PR-MOTA, PR-MOTP, and mostly tracked objects on the UA-DETRAC benchmark, establishing a new state-of-the-art. Relative to tracking by detection with KIOU, Crop-KIOU achieves a 26% higher frame-rate and increases accuracy. Furthermore, Tracking with Crop-based Detection can be combined with frame skipping; we show a 149% increase in framerate relative to KIOU with no decrease in accuracy using this combination of methods.

Gloudemans, Derek↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distributed water desalination and purification systems: perspective and future directions

Distributed water treatment and desalination (DWTD) systems are critical for the development of a diverse water portfolio of the desired quality and intended use at the target location. Widespread adoption of DWTD has been hampered given the need for round-the-clock monitoring and the lack of local technical expertise for system management. However, self-adaptive operation, real-time remote monitoring, supervisory control, and asset management of DWTD systems are now feasible with the implementation of advanced local system control, cyberinfrastructure that facilitates real-time cloud-based analytics, data management, and artificial intelligence–powered decision support. Such an approach will introduce transformative virtual networks of DWTD systems to provide needed water to locations that are not served by centralized and satellite water treatment and desalination systems.

Cohen, Yoram [University of California, Los Angele↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Bimodal Diagnostic Cloud Fraction Parameterization. Part I: Motivating Analysis and Scheme Description

Cloud fraction parameterizations are beneficial to regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction. For its operational regional midlatitude forecasts, the Met Office uses a diagnostic cloud fraction scheme that relies on a unimodal, symmetric subgrid saturation-departure distribution. This scheme has been shown before to underestimate cloud cover and hence an empirically based bias correction is used operationally to improve performance. This first of a series of two papers proposes a new diagnostic cloud scheme as a more physically based alternative to the operational bias correction. The new cloud scheme identifies entrainment zones associated with strong temperature inversions. Additionally, for model grid boxes located in this entrainment zone, collocated moist and dry Gaussian modes are used to represent the subgrid conditions. The mean and width of the Gaussian modes, inferred from the turbulent characteristics, are then used to diagnose cloud water content and cloud fraction. It is shown that the new scheme diagnoses enhanced cloud cover for a given gridbox mean humidity, similar to the current operational approach. It does so, however, in a physically meaningful way. Using observed aircraft data and ground-based retrievals over the southern Great Plains in the United States, it is shown that the new scheme improves the relation between cloud fraction, relative humidity, and liquid water content. An emergent property of the scheme is its ability to infer skewed and bimodal distributions from the large-scale state that qualitatively compare well against observations. A detailed evaluation and resolution sensitivity study will follow in Part II.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data requirements for improving the Quantitative Risk Assessment of liquid hydrogen storage systems

Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) supports the development of risk-informed safety codes and standards which are employed to enable the safe deployment of hydrogen technologies essential to decarbonize the transportation sector. System reliability data is a necessary input for rigorous QRA. Here, the lack of reliability data for bulk liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ) storage systems located on site at fueling stations limits the use of QRAs. In turn, this hinders the ability to develop the necessary safety codes and standards that enable worldwide deployment of these stations. Through a QRA-based analysis of a LH 2 storage system, this work focuses on identifying relevant scenario and probability data currently available and ascertaining future data collection requirements regarding risks specific to liquid hydrogen releases. The work developed consists of the analysis of a general bulk LH 2 storage system design located at a hydrogen fueling station. Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) and traditional QRA modeling tools such as Event Sequence Diagrams (ESD) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) are employed to identify, rank, and model risk scenarios related to the release of LH 2 . Based on this analysis, scenario and reliability data needs to add LH 2 -related components to QRA are identified with the purpose of improving the future safety and risk assessment of these systems.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Hanging String Cuts in SPR Caverns: Modeling Investigation and Comparison with Sonar Data

Investigation of leaching for oil sales includes looking closely at cavern geometries. Anomalous cavern "features" have been observed near the foot of some caverns subsequent to partial drawdowns. One potential mitigation approach to reducing further growth of preexisting features is based on the hypothesis that reducing the brine string length via a "string cue' would serve to move the zone associated with additional leaching to a location higher up in the cavern and thus away from the preexisting feature. Cutting of the hanging string is expected to provide a control of leaching depth that could be used to "smooth" existing features and thus reduce geomechanical instability in that region of the cavern. The SANSMIC code has been used to predict cavern geometry changes (i.e., the extent of cavern growth with depth) based on variable input parameters for four caverns: West Hackberry 11 (WH11), West Hackberry 113 (WH113), Big Hill 104 (BH104), Big Hill 114 (BH114). By comparing the initial sonar geometry with resultant geometries calculated by the SANSMIC code, conclusions may be drawn about the potential impact of these variables on future cavern growth. Ultimately, these conclusions can be used to assess possible mitigation strategies such as the potential advantage of cutting versus not cutting a brine string. This work has resulted in a recommendation that a hanging string cut of 80 ft in WH11 would be beneficial to future cavern geometry, while there would be little to no benefit to string cuts in the other three caverns investigated here. The WH11 recommendation was followed in 2019, resulting in an operational string cut. A sonar performed after the string cut showed no adverse leaching in the area of the preexisting flare, as expected from the results of the preliminary SANSMIC runs described in this report. Additional SANSMIC modeling of the actual amount of injected raw water resulted in good agreement with the post-cut sonar.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Development of a Generalized Riser Flow Regime Map Based Upon Higher Moment and Chaotic Statistics Using Electrical Capacitance Volume Tomography (ECVT)

Dynamic analyses have been applied to the temporal signals from an Electro Capacitance Volume Tomography instrument located near mid-height on the riser of an industrial-scale cold-flow circulating fluidized bed to characterize gas-solids flow behavior in the riser. Twelve capacitance electrodes surround the cylindrical riser over a height of 1.3 m. The instrument used a neural network deconvolution algorithm to determine the spatially resolved solids fraction recorded at 52 Hz. Experiments were carried out over a range of gas and solids flows in the transport regime using a Geldart Group B bed material, high density polyethylene with mean particle size of 880 μm. The radial solids distribution was found to vary from one-time step to the next between profiles typical of laminar and turbulent flow. The duration of time spent in each of these flow profiles depended upon the operating regime – dilute, core-annular, or fast fluidized bed. The chaotic structure of the temporal data was characterized using the three conventional approaches: the first 4 moments from the distribution of signal in time, system memory parameters from the autocorrelation function and the Hurst exponent, and analysis of the correlationentropy and correlation dimension of the attractor. These signal analysis techniques were used to clearly distinguish differences between different transport operating regimes. Specifically, it was experimentally observed that a riser transitions from core annular flow profile to dilute and dense regimes via increasing the frequency of short term transients to either dilute or dense flow profiles, respectively. A regime map was generated based upon these dynamics using solids flux and gas velocity axes. Fast fluidized, core annular, and dilute each exhibited different degree of dynamic characteristics typical of fluid dominated or particle compromising behavior. It should be noted that the magnitude for the different statistics was in the same range regardless of the regime, it was the radial profile for the statistic that changed and subsequently identified that there was a change in the regime. Finally, a reduced regime map was developed consisting of plotting the gas velocity normalized by the upper transport velocity versus the solids flux normalized by the saturation carrying capacity. The use of this reduced plot allowed the data from widely different conditions to be plotted and compared on the same<p>graph. Note that in many instances, some of the statistics identified the operating point as being in one regime while others indicated that it was in another indicating a transition region between dilute or core annular regimes and between the core annular and fast fluidization regimes. This now provides a tool that can be used to optimize process performance, identify changes in operating states, or replicate process dynamics during process scaling or changing operating parameters. </p>

Breault, Ronald↗

DOE OSTI2023

Neural Network-Enhanced Reproducing Kernel Particle Method for Image-Based Multiphysics Damage Modeling of Energy Storage Materials

Energy storage materials undergo significant stresses during charge/discharge cycling, which makes understanding their reliability and durability fundamental in predicting performance and service life. Strong electrochemical-mechanical coupling and highly anisotropic material properties contribute to the formation and propagation of micro-cracking, largely along material interfaces and grain boundaries. With microstructural images supplied by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), image-based modeling techniques are used to represent the complex material microstructures that dictate the coupled physics of these systems. Traditional electrochemical-mechanical models rely on mesh-based finite element methods, which can lead to difficulties in capturing crack propagation due to mesh dependency. Additionally, commonly used damage models, such as the continuous damage model and the cohesive zone model, often have steep tradeoffs between discontinuous field accuracy and computational expense. In this work, a neural network-enhanced reproducing kernel particle method (NN-RKPM) [1] is leveraged to accurately capture damage and crack propagation throughout the material by learning the location, orientation, and sharpness of discontinuity while allowing for a coarser nodal distribution than that necessary for capturing sharp solution transitions using traditional mesh-based methods. NN-RKPM is used to inform how crack opening and closure in turn affect the coupled chemical equations and material microstructure. Reference: [1] Baek, J., Chen, J. S., Susuki, K., "Neural Network enhanced Reproducing Kernel Particle Method for Modeling Localizations," International Journal for Numerical Methods in Engineering, Vol. 123, pp 4422-4454, https://doi.org/10.1002/nme.7040, 2022.

damage modeling↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collected under structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore, their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distance to the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensemble of trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fitting observed in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inverse physical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of the source strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations of underlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗

DOE OSTI2023

Asteroids seen by JWST-MIRI: Radiometric size, distance, and orbit constraints

Infrared measurements of asteroids are crucial for the determination of physical and thermal properties of individual objects, and for understanding the small-body populations in the solar system as a whole. However, standard radiometric methods can only be applied if the orbit of an object is known, hence its position at the time of the observation. With JWST-MIRI observations the situation will change and many unknown, often very small, solar system objects will be detected. Later orbit determinations are difficult due to the faintness of the objects and the lack of dedicated follow-up concepts. We present MIRI observations of the outer-belt asteroid (10920) 1998 BC1 and an unknown object, detected in all nine MIRI bands in close apparent proximity to (10920). We developed a new method called STM-ORBIT to interpret the multi-band measurements without knowing the object’s true location. The power of the new technique is that it determines the most-likely heliocentric and observer-centric distance and phase angle ranges, allowing us to make a radiometric size estimate. The application to the MIRI fluxes of (10920) was used to validate the method. It leads to a confirmation of the known radiometric size-albedo solution, and puts constraints on the asteroid’s location and orbit in agreement with its true orbit. To back up the validation of the method, we obtained additional ground-based light curve observations of (10920), combined with Gaia data, which indicate a very elongated object (a/b ≥ 1.5), with a spin-pole at (λ, β) ecl = (178°, +81°), with an estimated error of about 20°, and a rotation period of 4.861191 ± 0.000015 h. A thermophysical study of all available JWST-MIRI and WISE measurements leads to a size of 14.5–16.5 km (diameter of an equal-volume sphere), a geometric albedo pV between 0.05 and 0.10, and a thermal inertia in the range 9–35 (best value 15) J m -2 s -0.5 K -1 . For the newly discovered MIRI object, the STM-ORBIT method revealed a size of 100–230 m. The new asteroid must be on a low-inclination orbit (0.7° < i < 2.0°) and it was located in the inner main-belt region during JWST observations. A beaming parameter η larger than 1.0 would push the size even below 100 meters, a main-belt regime that has escaped IR detections so far. This kind of MIRI observations can therefore contribute to formation and evolution studies via classical size-frequency studies, which are currently limited to objects larger than about one kilometer in size. We estimate that MIRI frames with pointings close to the ecliptic and short integration times of only a few seconds will always include a few asteroids; most of them will be unknown objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Based Analysis of Cell Imbalances and Aging in Lithium-Ion Battery Modules and Packs

Lithium-ion battery (LIB) packs are a key solution for grid-scale energy storage, enabling grid resilience and supporting critical infrastructure. LIB modules and packs experience current imbalances and uneven cell aging due to various design and operational factors, and require a battery management system (BMS) to continuously monitor and control. In this context, a physics-based modeling framework for LIB modules and packs (liionpack) was enhanced to identify design and control strategies that minimize current imbalance and improve module/pack operation. Simulations of an 8-cell parallel-connected module demonstrate that reducing current imbalance leads to more uniform cell aging and improved module/pack-level degradation predictions. The analysis shows that current imbalance are affected by the electrical resistances. Terminal location significantly affects imbalance, with opposite-end terminal connections at intermediate branches minimizing the imbalance, and the pack circuit construction influences the accuracy of physics-based analysis at the pack scale. This framework enables design optimization of modules and packs through a fast and easy evaluation of pack performance and aging, and supports the development of aging-informed balancing strategies compatible with BMS implementation. Thereby, offering practical pathways to improve reliability and cycle life predictions in large-scale battery energy storage systems.

Ayalasomayajula, Surya Mitra [Oak Ridge National L↗

DOE OSTI2021

Empirical validation and comparison of methodologies to simulate micro and macro-encapsulated PCMs in the building envelope

Thermal Energy Storage (TES) has the potential to shift peak electricity demand. Passive TES is usually implemented in building envelope as micro and macro encapsulated phase change materials (PCM) to shift electric energy demand and therefore requires careful heat transfer analysis. Whole building energy modelling with simplified heat transfer analysis has become extremely important for designers, architects, engineers, and researchers to predict energy performance of buildings. It is important to validate PCM modelling algorithms used in building energy programs to quantify their error and prove their capacity to model different PCM encapsulation types. This study uses data from a microencapsulated PCM and two macroencapsulated PCMs (Bio based PCM and hydrate salts) tested in full-scale using the Advanced Multiscale Building Energy Research (AMBER) Lab located at the Colorado School of Mines and is used to validate a numerical algorithm written in MATLAB language. To approximate the heat transfer through a wall assembly with macroencapsulated PCM pouches, several modelling techniques that can reduce 3D heat transfer characteristics to 1D are explored in this research. A parallel path heat transfer modelling approach is found to give the closest agreement with the experimental data for the pouched PCMs in building envelope applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improvement of the AC orbit bump method of local kick factor measurement using reference bunches

Here we have improved the AC orbit bump technique of local kick factor measurement. This technique, developed at NSLS-II a few years ago, is based on local sine-wave excitation of the electron beam by four fast correctors adjacent to the impedance location. By implementing reference bunches and the time gate function of beam position monitors, we are now able to measure the AC orbits of bunches with different intensities simultaneously. This improvement allows us to obtain the impedance-driven orbit distortion in a single measurement, significantly improving the measurement accuracy and reducing the measurement time.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗