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Nonlinear dynamics of the magnetosphere and space weather

The solar wind-magnetosphere system exhibits coherence on the global scale and such behavior can arise from nonlinearity on the dynamics. The observational time series data were used together with phase space reconstruction techniques to analyze the magnetospheric dynamics. Analysis of the solar wind, auroral electrojet and Dst indices showed low dimensionality of the dynamics and accurate prediction can be made with an input/output model. The predictability of the magnetosphere in spite of the apparent complexity arises from its dynamical synchronism with the solar wind. The electrodynamic coupling between different regions of the magnetosphere yields its coherent, low dimensional behavior. The data from multiple satellites and ground stations can be used to develop a spatio-temporal model that identifies the coupling between different regions. These nonlinear dynamical models provide space weather forecasting capabilities.

Sharma, A. Surjalal↗

Rate Constant for the Reaction CH3 + CH3 Yields C2H6 at T = 155 K and Model Calculation of the CH3 Abundance in the Atmospheres of Saturn and Neptune

The column abundances of CH3 observed by the Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) satellite on Saturn and Neptune were lower than predicted by atmospheric photochemical models, especially for Saturn. It has been suggested that the models underestimated the loss of CH3 due to poor knowledge of the rate constant k of the CH3 + CH3 self-reaction at the low temperatures and pressures of these atmospheres. Motivated by this suggestion, we undertook a combined experimental and photochemical modeling study of the CH3 + CH3 reaction and its role in determining planetary CH3 abundances. In a discharge flow-mass spectrometer system, k was measured at T = 155 K and three pressures of He. The results in units of cu cm/molecule/s are k(0.6 Torr) = 6.82 x 10(exp -11), k(1.0 Torr) = 6.98 x 10(exp -11), and k(1.5 Torr) = 6.91 x 10(exp -11). Analytical expressions for k were derived that (1) are consistent with the present laboratory data at T = 155 K, our previous data at T = 202 K and 298 K, and those of other studies in He at T = 296-298 K and (2) have some theoretical basis to provide justification for extrapolation. The derived analytical expressions were then used in atmospheric photochemical models for both Saturn and Neptune. These model results reduced the disparity with observations of Saturn, but not with observations of Neptune. However, the disparity for Neptune is much smaller. The solution to the remaining excess CH3 prediction in the models relative to the ISO observations lies, to a large extent, elsewhere in the CH3 photochemistry or transport, not in the CH3 + CH3 rate.

Cody, Regina J.↗

Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Beta Mixed Model

We investigate the performance of a generalized linear mixed model in predicting the Probabilities of Collision (Pc) for conjunction events. Specifically, we apply this model to the log(sub 10) transformation of these probabilities and argue that this transformation yields values that can be considered bounded in practice. Additionally, this bounded random variable, after scaling, is zero-inflated. Consequently, we model these values using the zero-inflated Beta distribution, and utilize the Bayesian paradigm and the mixed model framework to borrow information from past and current events. This provides a natural way to model the data and provides a basis for answering questions of interest, such as what is the likelihood of observing a probability of collision equal to the effective value of zero on a subsequent observation.

Conjuction Assessment↗

Automated Tracking of Shallow Maritime Clouds on Geostationary Imagery to Extract Lifecycle Characteristics

Shallow moist convection is ubiquitous throughout the tropics and represents a key player in boundary layer processes. Satellites have provided valuable insight on shallow clouds, such as size, structure, and geographical coverage, from static views of recurring cloud fields. But determining why certain cloud features appear and persist for different periods requires a time-evolving view of their behaviors. Geostationary satellites provide a unique opportunity to follow the time evolution of individual convective features, given their enhanced spatial and temporal sampling. A cloud-tracking tool was developed to identify properties of cloud lifecycle from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2EX) field campaign of 2019. The mission conducted intensive sampling of shallow cumulus in the West Pacific Ocean, in tandem with Rapid Scan imagery from the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) Himawari-8 satellite. Shallow cumulus were segmented according to thresholds in 0.5-km visible reflectance and with blurring techniques. Despite being limited to daytime hours, the segmentations yielded the best resolution available for capturing cloud initiation, growth, and decay. The tracking procedure is based on a computer vision package that includes Kalman filters for motion prediction, object overlap search, and the Hungarian (or Kuhn-Munkres) matching algorithm for track designation. AHI radiances available within the tracked cloud boundaries are assembled to form individual spectral histories. The resulting catalog provides thousands of cloud histories for domains measuring only a few degrees in latitude and longitude. We present an overview of the cloud-tracking tool and its results for cloud fields sampled throughout CAMP2EX by the airborne P-3. Cloud tracks were selected from about 10 flights to form ensembles, specific groups of tracks occurring in a region with airborne sampling. Cloud lifecycle properties, including duration and maximum area, are calculated for all ensemble members, and analyzed for cloud behavior and P-3 coincidences. By following this strategy, we quantitatively assess the degree of airborne sampling for specific cloud classes defined by the lifecycle calculations. We can summarize which cloud classes had more sampling, the stage of development during sampling, and general differences in character (e.g., isolated congestus vs. cold-pool producer).

Cloud Tracking↗

Spectral estimators of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation in corn canopies

Most models of crop growth and yield require an estimate of canopy leaf area index (LAI) or absorption of radiation. Relationships between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by corn canopies and the spectral reflectance of the canopies were investigated. Reflectance factor data were acquired with a LANDSAT MSS band radiometer. From planting to silking, the three spectrally predicted vegetation indices examined were associated with more than 95% of the variability in absorbed PAR. The relationships developed between absorbed PAR and the three indices were evaluated with reflectance factor data acquired from corn canopies planted in 1979 through 1982. Seasonal cumulations of measured LAI and each of the three indices were associated with greater than 50% of the variation in final grain yields from the test years. Seasonal cumulations of daily absorbed PAR were associated with up to 73% of the variation in final grain yields. Absorbed PAR, cumulated through the growing season, is a better indicator of yield than cumulated leaf area index. Absorbed PAR may be estimated reliably from spectral reflectance data of crop canopies.

Gallo, K. P.↗

Mapping of CO2 at High Spatiotemporal Resolution using Satellite Observations: Global distributions from OCO-2

Satellite observations of CO2 offer new opportunities to improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Using such observations to infer global maps of atmospheric CO2 and their associated uncertainties can provide key information about the distribution and dynamic behavior of CO2, through comparison to atmospheric CO2 distributions predicted from biospheric, oceanic, or fossil fuel flux emissions estimates coupled with atmospheric transport models. Ideally, these maps should be at temporal resolutions that are short enough to represent and capture the synoptic dynamics of atmospheric CO2. This study presents a geostatistical method that accomplishes this goal. The method can extract information about the spatial covariance structure of the CO2 field from the available CO2 retrievals, yields full coverage (Level 3) maps at high spatial resolutions, and provides estimates of the uncertainties associated with these maps. The method does not require information about CO2 fluxes or atmospheric transport, such that the Level 3 maps are informed entirely by available retrievals. The approach is assessed by investigating its performance using synthetic OCO-2 data generated from the PCTM/ GEOS-4/CASA-GFED model, for time periods ranging from 1 to 16 days and a target spatial resolution of 1deg latitude x 1.25deg longitude. Results show that global CO2 fields from OCO-2 observations can be predicted well at surprisingly high temporal resolutions. Even one-day Level 3 maps reproduce the large-scale features of the atmospheric CO2 distribution, and yield realistic uncertainty bounds. Temporal resolutions of two to four days result in the best performance for a wide range of investigated scenarios, providing maps at an order of magnitude higher temporal resolution relative to the monthly or seasonal Level 3 maps typically reported in the literature.

Hammerling, Dorit M.↗

Probabilistic finite elements

In the Probabilistic Finite Element Method (PFEM), finite element methods have been efficiently combined with second-order perturbation techniques to provide an effective method for informing the designer of the range of response which is likely in a given problem. The designer must provide as input the statistical character of the input variables, such as yield strength, load magnitude, and Young's modulus, by specifying their mean values and their variances. The output then consists of the mean response and the variance in the response. Thus the designer is given a much broader picture of the predicted performance than with simply a single response curve. These methods are applicable to a wide class of problems, provided that the scale of randomness is not too large and the probabilistic density functions possess decaying tails. By incorporating the computational techniques we have developed in the past 3 years for efficiency, the probabilistic finite element methods are capable of handling large systems with many sources of uncertainties. Sample results for an elastic-plastic ten-bar structure and an elastic-plastic plane continuum with a circular hole subject to cyclic loadings with the yield stress on the random field are given.

Belytschko, Ted↗

Spectral estimators of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation in corn canopies

Most models of crop growth and yield require an estimate of canopy leaf area index (LAI) or absorption of radiation. Relationships between photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) absorbed by corn canopies and the spectral reflectance of the canopies were investigated. Reflectance factor data were acquired with a Landsat MSS band radiometer. From planting to silking, the three spectrally predicted vegetation indices examined were associated with more than 95 percent of the variability in absorbed PAR. The relationships developed between absorbed PAR and the three indices were evaluated with reflectance factor data acquired from corn canopies planted in 1979 through 1982. Seasonal cumulations of measured LAI and each of the three indices were associated with greater than 50 percent of the variation in final grain yields from the test years. Seasonal cumulations of daily absorbed PAR were associated with up to 73 percent of the variation in final grain yields. Absorbed PAR, cumulated through the growing season, is a better indicator of yield than cumulated leaf area index. Absorbed PAR may be estimated reliably from spectral reflectance data of crop canopies.

Gallo, K. P.↗

Analytic evaluation of display requirements for approach to landing

A computerized analysis procedure, based on a control theoretic model of the human pilot, is used to evaluate display requirements for longitudinal control in the landing approach. The display employed a digitally generated, perspective runway image with a superimposed artificial horizon for pitch indication. System performance measures are obtained for the approach phase of a light aircraft and a DC-8; predictions are made as to the effects of several display modifications. It is found that augmenting the basic display with glide slope reference bars and a velocity aim point yields adequate performance in calm air. Under moderate turbulence, the augmented display appears to be adequate for a DC-8 approach but not for a light aircraft.

Kleinman, D. L.↗

Improving the MLS through enhanced cockpit displays

A simulator investigation of various prediction and quickening algorithms in computer-generated forward-looking displays is presented; the algorithms are used to improve manual aircraft control on curved microwave landing system approaches. The experimental facility consisted of a Link GAT-2 simulator, a PDP 11/40 minicomputer, a high-speed graphic display, a TV camera, and a CRT monitor. Results indicate that second- and third-order predictor displays provide the best lateral performance and that intermediate levels of prediction and quickening provide the best vertical control. Prediction/quickening algorithms of increasing computational order were found to significantly reduce aileron, rudder, and elevator control responses. The conventional crosspointer displays yielded an average 2-sigma lateral error of + or - 200 over all wind conditions at 500 m from touchdown, and was therefore unable to meet FAA requirements (+ or - 22.9 m); the pictorial-preview display yielded much better results: an average 2-sigma lateral error of + or - 27 m. Neither display was able to approach the FAA specified accuracy requirement in the vertical dimension (+ or - 3.7 m).

Jensen, R. S.↗

Ascent Guidance for a Winged Boost Vehicle

The objective of the advanced ascent guidance study was to investigate guidance concepts which could contribute to increased autonomy during ascent operations in a winged boost vehicle such as the proposed Shuttle II. The guidance scheme was required to yield near a full-optimal ascent in the presence of vehicle system and environmental dispersions. The study included consideration of trajectory shaping issues, trajectory design, closed loop and predictive adaptive guidance techniques and control of dynamic pressure by throttling. An extensive ascent vehicle simulation capability was developed for use in the study.

Corvin, Michael Alexander↗

Nitrous oxide in the tropical middle atmosphere, observed by ground-based mm-wave spectrometry

Measurements of stratospheric N2O were made from Mauna Kea in Hawaii in June 1983, and in May and June 1986, by observing thermal emission of the molecule in a rotational transition at about 1 mm wavelength. Analyses of the data yield altitude profiles in the middle and upper stratosphere. Useful measurements of N2O may be made in one to two hours. The N2O profiles agree reasonably well with model predictions and with published satellite data, though significantly more N2O is reported near the stratopause than shown by the satellite measurement, and significantly more N2O in the middle stratosphere than in one of the models. The discrepancy between these data and the satellite measurement may be due in part to variations induced by the solar cycle.

Connor, Brian J.↗

Algorithm For Solution Of Navier-Stokes Equations

Advantages of two previous algorithms combined. Steady-state Navier-Stokes equations put in implicit finite-difference form solved by approximate Newton iteration. LU-SSOR scheme is new relaxation method combining advantages of LU factorization with Gauss-Seidel relaxation. Vectorizable LU-SSOR scheme, based on central differences, requires scalar diagonal inversions. Application of scheme to approximate Newton iteration of Navier-Stokes equations yields set of equations requiring no implicit smoothing on left side. Only adaptive, total-variation-diminishing, flux-limited dissipation terms added to right side. Algorithm used to predict laminar, turbulent, and hypersonic flows.

Yoon, Seokkwan↗

Statistical structural analysis of rotor impact ice shedding

The statistical characteristics of impact ice shear strength are analyzed, with emphasis placed on the most probable shear strength and statistical distribution of an ice deposit. Several distribution types are considered: the Weibull, two-parameter Weibull, and exponential distributions, as well as the Gumbell distribution of the smallest extreme and the Gumbell distribution of the largest extreme. It is concluded that the Weibull distribution yields the best results; however, the expected life, shape parameter, and scale parameter should be determined separately for each case of varying wind speed and droplet size. The theoretical predictions of shear stresses in a specific rotating ice shape are compared, and it is noted that when the effects of lift are added to the theoretical model and the interference is calculated with a new mean and standard deviation, the probability of ice shed is computed as 36.64 pct.

Kellacky, C. J.↗

A flutter investigation of all-moveable NASP-like wings at hypersonic speeds

Six alternative all-moving wing configurations applicable to the NASP hypersonic/transatmospheric vehicle have undergone aeroelasticity testing in NASA-Langley's Mach-20-capable Helium Tunnel that yielded data for such parametric variations as airfoil profile and wing planform, wing-pivot flexure stiffness, and mass imbalance. While all wings fluttered at dynamic pressures lower than predicted by second-order piston-theory aerodynamics, this was of limited amplitude, suggesting nonlinear external-flow behavior. Slab airfoils were more stable than diamond-shaped ones; blunt leading edges enhance stability relative to sharp ones, and stiffer pivolts extert a stabilizing influence.

Spain, Charles V.↗

High-speed engine/component performance assessment using exergy and thrust-based methods

This investigation summarizes a comparative study of two high-speed engine performance assessment techniques based on energy (available work) and thrust-potential (thrust availability). Simple flow-fields utilizing Rayleigh heat addition and one-dimensional flow with friction are used to demonstrate the fundamental inability of conventional energy techniques to predict engine component performance, aid in component design, or accurately assess flow losses. The use of the thrust-based method on these same examples demonstrates its ability to yield useful information in all these categories. Energy and thrust are related and discussed from the stand-point of their fundamental thermodynamic and fluid dynamic definitions in order to explain the differences in information obtained using the two methods. The conventional definition of energy is shown to include work which is inherently unavailable to an aerospace Brayton engine. An engine-based energy is then developed which accurately accounts for this inherently unavailable work; performance parameters based on this quantity are then shown to yield design and loss information equivalent to the thrust-based method.

Riggins, D. W.↗

Cycling of DMSP and DMS in Surface Ocean Waters: The Impact of Microzooplankton Grazing and Metabolism

We have explored and identified several novel aspects of dimetylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) metabolism and dimetylsulfide (DMS) production by microbial food web processes. Processes studied include: microzooplankton herbivory, uptake and retention of dissolved (DMSP) by marine bacteria, coupled with microzooplankton bacterivory, and generation of (DMS) as a byproduct of chemical grazing deterrence by Emiliania huxleyi. Our results illustrate the complexities of DMSP cycling and DMS production, and support the idea that the flux of DMS to the atmosphere is the result of many coupled trophic interactions which are not currently predictable by simple models or observations tied to a few bulk parameters. Although it is highly desirable to measure trophic interactions by remote sensing techniques, satellite methods cannot currently yield information on bacterial or microzooplankton abundances, activities, and processes. We have identified specific processes which must be included in future efforts, but we do not know yet how widespread or important these will be in many natural waters. We believe further work will enable us to simplify our model of DMS production by eliminating second order processes, and help refine our insight into the primary biological and chemical sources of atmospheric DMS. This is fundamental work which should be supported as basic research.

Sherr, Evelyn↗

Advanced Range Safety System for High Energy Vehicles

The advanced range safety system project is a collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the United States Air Force to develop systems that would reduce costs and schedule for safety approval for new classes of unmanned high-energy vehicles. The mission-planning feature for this system would yield flight profiles that satisfy the mission requirements for the user while providing an increased quality of risk assessment, enhancing public safety. By improving the speed and accuracy of predicting risks to the public, mission planners would be able to expand flight envelopes significantly. Once in place, this system is expected to offer the flexibility of handling real-time risk management for the high-energy capabilities of hypersonic vehicles including autonomous return-from-orbit vehicles and extended flight profiles over land. Users of this system would include mission planners of Space Launch Initiative vehicles, space planes, and other high-energy vehicles. The real-time features of the system could make extended flight of a malfunctioning vehicle possible, in lieu of an immediate terminate decision. With this improved capability, the user would have more time for anomaly resolution and potential recovery of a malfunctioning vehicle.

Claxton, Jeffrey S.↗