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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

surface energy↗

Inclusion of Linearized Moist Physics in Nasa's Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation Tools

Inclusion of moist physics in the linearized version of a weather forecast model is beneficial in terms of variational data assimilation. Further, it improves the capability of important tools, such as adjoint-based observation impacts and sensitivity studies. A linearized version of the relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) convection scheme has been developed and tested in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation tools. A previous study of the RAS scheme showed it to exhibit reasonable linearity and stability. This motivates the development of a linearization of a near-exact version of the RAS scheme. Linearized large-scale condensation is included through simple conversion of supersaturation into precipitation. The linearization of moist physics is validated against the full nonlinear model for 6- and 24-h intervals, relevant to variational data assimilation and observation impacts, respectively. For a small number of profiles, sudden large growth in the perturbation trajectory is encountered. Efficient filtering of these profiles is achieved by diagnosis of steep gradients in a reduced version of the operator of the tangent linear model. With filtering turned on, the inclusion of linearized moist physics increases the correlation between the nonlinear perturbation trajectory and the linear approximation of the perturbation trajectory. A month-long observation impact experiment is performed and the effect of including moist physics on the impacts is discussed. Impacts from moist-sensitive instruments and channels are increased. The effect of including moist physics is examined for adjoint sensitivity studies. A case study examining an intensifying Northern Hemisphere Atlantic storm is presented. The results show a significant sensitivity with respect to moisture.

Convection↗

Assimilation of SMOS Retrieved Soil Moisture into the Land Information System

Soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) instrument are assimilated into the Noah land surface model (LSM) within the NASA Land Information System (LIS). Before assimilation, SMOS retrievals are bias-corrected to match the model climatological distribution using a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) matching approach. Data assimilation is done via the Ensemble Kalman Filter. The goal is to improve the representation of soil moisture within the LSM, and ultimately to improve numerical weather forecasts through better land surface initialization. We present a case study showing a large area of irrigation in the lower Mississippi River Valley, in an area with extensive rice agriculture. High soil moisture value in this region are observed by SMOS, but not captured in the forcing data. After assimilation, the model fields reflect the observed geographic patterns of soil moisture. Plans for a modeling experiment and operational use of the data are given. This work helps prepare for the assimilation of Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) retrievals in the near future.

Data Assimilation↗

Development, Validation, and Application of OSSEs at NASA-GMAO

The GMAO OSSE framework has two general classes of applications. One is to estimate the potential improvements to weather forecasting and analysis by using new proposed instruments that are not as yet built or deployed. This exploits the simulated nature of the OSSE. The other is to assess various aspects of the GMAO data assimilation system. This exploits the availability of truth provided by the OSSE. Two examples of the first class of application will be offered. One concerns deployment of constellations of passive MW sounders on small CUBESATs placed in very low orbits. The other concern is increasing the frequency of radiosonde observations to 4-times daily at all current stations. Several examples of the second class will also be presented. One is an estimation of analysis error characteristics. Another is a comparison between covariances directly determined from explicitly known background errors and those estimated by computing differences between lagged forecasts using the NMC-method prior to tuning. A third is a comparison of effects of model and observation errors on analysis and forecast skill. The last is an examination of spectra of forecast errors in a study of predictability. This latter is an ongoing study.

OSSE↗

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

Interannual Variations in Aerosol Sources and Their Impact on Orographic Precipitation Over California's Central Sierra Nevada

Aerosols that serve as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) have the potential to profoundly influence precipitation processes. Furthermore, changes in orographic precipitation have broad implications for reservoir storage and flood risks. As part of the CalWater I field campaign (2009-2011), the impacts of aerosol sources on precipitation were investigated in the California Sierra Nevada. In 2009, the precipitation collected on the ground was influenced by both local biomass burning (up to 79% of the insoluble residues found in precipitation) and long-range transported dust and biological particles (up to 80% combined), while in 2010, by mostly local sources of biomass burning and pollution (30-79% combined), and in 2011 by mostly long-range transport from distant sources (up to 100% dust and biological). Although vast differences in the source of residues was observed from year-to-year, dust and biological residues were omnipresent (on average, 55% of the total residues combined) and were associated with storms consisting of deep convective cloud systems and larger quantities of precipitation initiated in the ice phase. Further, biological residues were dominant during storms with relatively warm cloud temperatures (up to -15 C), suggesting these particles were more efficient IN compared to mineral dust. On the other hand, lower percentages of residues from local biomass burning and pollution were observed (on average 31% and 9%, respectively), yet these residues potentially served as CCN at the base of shallow cloud systems when precipitation quantities were low. The direct connection of the source of aerosols within clouds and precipitation type and quantity can be used in models to better assess how local emissions versus long-range transported dust and biological aerosols play a role in impacting regional weather and climate, ultimately with the goal of more accurate predictive weather forecast models and water resource management.

Creamean, J. M.↗

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

On the Cloud Observations in JAXA's Next Coming Satellite Missions

The use of JAXA's next generation satellites, the EarthCARE and the GCOM-C, for observing overall cloud systems on the Earth is discussed. The satellites will be launched in the middle of 2010-era and contribute for observing aerosols and clouds in terms of climate change, environment, weather forecasting, and cloud revolution process study. This paper describes the role of such satellites and how to use the observing data showing concepts and some sample viewgraphs. Synergistic use of sensors is a key of the study. Visible to infrared bands are used for cloudy and clear discriminating from passively obtained satellite images. Cloud properties such as the cloud optical thickness, the effective particle radii, and the cloud top temperature will be retrieved from visible to infrared wavelengths of imagers. Additionally, we are going to combine cloud properties obtained from passive imagers and radar reflectivities obtained from an active radar in order to improve our understanding of cloud evolution process. This is one of the new techniques of satellite data analysis in terms of cloud sciences in the next decade. Since the climate change and cloud process study have mutual beneficial relationship, a multispectral wide-swath imagers like the GCOM-C SGLI and a comprehensive observation package of cloud and aerosol like the EarthCARE are both necessary.

satellite remote sensing↗

Large Scale Variability of Mid-Tropospheric Carbon Dioxide as Observed by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the NASA EOS Aqua Platform

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a hyperspectral infrared instrument on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft, launched on May 4, 2002. AIRS has 2378 infrared channels ranging from 3.7 microns to 15.4 microns and a 13.5 km footprint. AIRS, in conjunction with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), produces temperature profiles with 1K/km accuracy, water vapor profiles (20%/2km), infrared cloud height and fraction, and trace gas amounts for CO2, CO, SO2, O3 and CH4 in the mid to upper troposphere. AIRS wide swath(cedilla) +/-49.5 deg , enables daily global daily coverage for over 95% of the Earth's surface. AIRS data are used for weather forecasting, validating climate model distribution and processes, and observing long-range transport of greenhouse gases. In this study, we examine the large scale and regional horizontal variability in the AIRS Mid-tropospheric Carbon Dioxide product as a function of season and associate the observed variability with known atmospheric transport processes, and sources and sinks of CO2.

carbon dioxide↗

Analysis of Ultra High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Level 4 Datasets

Sea surface temperature (SST) studies are often focused on improving accuracy, or understanding and quantifying uncertainties in the measurement, as SST is a leading indicator of climate change and represents the longest time series of any ocean variable observed from space. Over the past several decades SST has been studied with the use of satellite data. This allows a larger area to be studied with much more frequent measurements being taken than direct measurements collected aboard ship or buoys. The Group for High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) is an international project that distributes satellite derived sea surface temperatures (SST) data from multiple platforms and sensors. The goal of the project is to distribute these SSTs for operational uses such as ocean model assimilation and decision support applications, as well as support fundamental SST research and climate studies. Examples of near real time applications include hurricane and fisheries studies and numerical weather forecasting. The JPL group has produced a new 1 km daily global Level 4 SST product, the Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR), that blends SST data from 3 distinct NASA radiometers: the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR), and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer ? Earth Observing System(AMSRE). This new product requires further validation and accuracy assessment, especially in coastal regions.We examined the accuracy of the new MUR SST product by comparing the high resolution version and a lower resolution version that has been smoothed to 19 km (but still gridded to 1 km). Both versions were compared to the same data set of in situ buoy temperature measurements with a focus on study regions of the oceans surrounding North and Central America as well as two smaller regions around the Gulf Stream and California coast. Ocean fronts exhibit high temperature gradients (Roden, 1976), and thus satellite data of SST can be used in the detection of these fronts. In this case, accuracy is less of a concern because the primary focus is on the spatial derivative of SST. We calculated the gradients for both versions of the MUR data set and did statistical comparisons focusing on the same regions.

sea surface temperature SST)↗

First Use of Synoptic Vector Magnetograms for Global Nonlinear, Force-Free Coronal Magnetic Field Models

Context. The magnetic field permeating the solar atmosphere is generally thought to provide the energy for much of the activity seen in the solar corona, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), etc. To overcome the unavailability of coronal magnetic field measurements, photospheric magnetic field vector data can be used to reconstruct the coronal field. Currently, there are several modelling techniques being used to calculate three-dimensional field lines into the solar atmosphere. Aims. For the first time, synoptic maps of a photospheric-vector magnetic field synthesized from the vector spectromagnetograph (VSM) on Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) are used to model the coronal magnetic field and estimate free magnetic energy in the global scale. The free energy (i.e., the energy in excess of the potential field energy) is one of the main indicators used in space weather forecasts to predict the eruptivity of active regions. Methods. We solve the nonlinear force-free field equations using an optimization principle in spherical geometry. The resulting threedimensional magnetic fields are used to estimate the magnetic free energy content E(sub free) = E(sub nlfff) − E(sub pot), which is the difference of the magnetic energies between the nonpotential field and the potential field in the global solar corona. For comparison, we overlay the extrapolated magnetic field lines with the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations by the atmospheric imaging assembly (AIA) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). Results. For a single Carrington rotation 2121, we find that the global nonlinear force-free field (NLFFF) magnetic energy density is 10.3% higher than the potential one. Most of this free energy is located in active regions.

Sun: corona↗

Seven Years of Observations of Mid-Tropospheric CO2 from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on the EOS Aqua Spacecraft was launched on May 4, 2002. AIRS acquires hyperspectral infrared radiances in the 3.7-15.4 um spectral region with spectral resolution of better than 1200. The AIRS was designed to measure temperature and water vapor profiles and cloud properties for improvement in weather forecast and improved parameterization of climate processes. Currently the AIRS Level 1B Radiance Products are assimilated by NWP centers and have shown considerable forecast improvement. Scientists have also demonstrated accurate retrievals of minor gases from AIRS including Carbon Monoxide, Methane, and Ozone. The excellent sensitivity and stability of the AIRS instrument has recently allowed the AIRS team to successfully retrieve Carbon Dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the mid-troposphere (8-10 km) with a horizontal resolution of 100 km and accuracy of 1-2 ppm. The AIRS retrieves over 15,000 measurements per day and can achieve full global coverage in 30 days. The AIRS CO2 accuracy has been validated against a variety of aircraft measurements in the mid-troposphere and upward looking interferometers. Findings from the AIRS data include higher than expected variability in the mid-troposphere, the presence of a belt of CO2 in the southern hemisphere, and numerous observations of atmospheric circulation including the effects of El Nino/La Nina on the CO2 concentrations in the mid-troposphere. The full mid-tropospheric AIRS CO2 data set is now available at the NASA GES/DISC for almost eight years since AIRS has been operational.

carbon dioxide↗

The Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (SNPP): Continuing NASA Research and Applications

The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite was successfully launched into a polar orbit on October 28, 2011 carrying 5 remote sensing instruments designed to provide data to improve weather forecasts and to increase understanding of long-term climate change. SNPP provides operational continuity of satellite-based observations for NOAA's Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) and continues the long-term record of climate quality observations established by NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites. In the 2003 to 2011 pre-launch timeframe, NASA's SNPP Science Team assessed the adequacy of the operational Raw Data Records (RDRs), Sensor Data Records (SDRs), and Environmental Data Records (EDRs) from the SNPP instruments for use in NASA Earth Science research, examined the operational algorithms used to produce those data records, and proposed a path forward for the production of climate quality products from SNPP. In order to perform these tasks, a distributed data system, the NASA Science Data Segment (SDS), ingested RDRs, SDRs, and EDRs from the NOAA Archive and Distribution and Interface Data Processing Segments, ADS and IDPS, respectively. The SDS also obtained operational algorithms for evaluation purposes from the NOAA Government Resource for Algorithm Verification, Independent Testing and Evaluation (GRAVITE). Within the NASA SDS, five Product Evaluation and Test Elements (PEATEs) received, ingested, and stored data and performed NASA's data processing, evaluation, and analysis activities. The distributed nature of this data distribution system was established by physically housing each PEATE within one of five Climate Analysis Research Systems (CARS) located at either at a NASA or a university institution. The CARS were organized around 5 key EDRs directly in support of the following NASA Earth Science focus areas: atmospheric sounding, ocean, land, ozone, and atmospheric composition products. The PEATES provided the system level interface with members of the NASA SNPP Science Team and other science investigators within each CARS. A sixth Earth Radiation Budget CARS was established at NASA Langley Research Center (NASA LaRC) to support instrument performance, data evaluation, and analysis for the SNPP Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Budget Energy System (CERES) instrument. Following the 2011 launch of SNPP, spacecraft commissioning, and instrument activation, the NASA SNPP Science Team evaluated the operational RDRs, SDRs, and EDRs produced by the NOAA ADS and IDPS. A key part in that evaluation was the NASA Science Team's independent processing of operational RDRs and SDRs to EDRs using the latest NASA science algorithms. The NASA science evaluation was completed in the December 2012 to April 2014 timeframe with the release of a series of NASA Science Team Discipline Reports. In summary, these reports indicated that the RDRs produced by the SNPP instruments were of sufficiently high quality to be used to create data products suitable for NASA Earth System science and applications. However, the quality of the SDRs and EDRs were found to vary greatly when considering suitability for NASA science. The need for improvements in operational algorithms, adoption of different algorithmic approaches, greater monitoring of on-orbit instrument calibration, greater attention to data product validation, and data reprocessing were prominent findings in the reports. In response to these findings, NASA, in late 2013, directed the NASA SNPP Science Team to use SNPP instrument data to develop data products of sufficiently high quality to enable the continuation of EOS time series data records and to develop innovative, practical applications of SNPP data. This direction necessitated a transition of the SDS data system from its pre-launch assessment mode to one of full data processing and production. To do this, the PEATES, which served as NASA's data product testing environment during the prelaunch and early on-orbit periods, were transitioned to Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPS). The distributed data architecture was maintained in this new system by locating the SIPS at the same institutions at which the CARS and PEATES were located. The SIPS acquire raw SNPP instrument Level 0 (i.e. RDR) data over the full SNPP mission from the NOAA ADS and IDPS through the NASA SDS Data Distribution and Depository Element (SD3E). The SIPS process those data into NASA Level 1, Level 2, and global, gridded Level 3 standard products using peer-reviewed algorithms provided by members of the NASA Science Team. The SIPS work with the NASA SNPP Science Team in obtaining enhanced, refined, or alternate real-time algorithms to support the capabilities of the Direct Readout Laboratory (DRL). All data products, algorithm source codes, coefficients, and auxiliary data used in product generation are archived in an assigned NASA Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC).

remote sensing↗

Remote Sensing

Remote sensing is one of a suite of geospatial technologies that are having a growing impact in a wide variety of areas from commerce to science to public policy. The field of remote sensing evolved from the interpretation of aerial photographs to the analysis of satellite imagery, and from local area studies to global analyses, with advances in sensor system technologies and digital computing. Today remote sensor systems can provide data from energy emitted, reflected, and/or transmitted from all parts of the electromagnetic spectrum. Examples of applications of these data include population and demography studies, study of archaeological sites, energy studies using hydrological models, urban planning, environmental monitoring, environments, treaty enforcement, land use/land cover planning, weather forecasting, and agricultural production estimation, just to name a few. The material that follows provides a brief overview of the historical development of remote sensing, emphasizing the increasing complexity of platforms, systems, and tasks.

electromagnetic spectrum↗

Modeling Modern Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands: Model Description and Results - 1

Methane is an important greenhouse gas which contributes about 22 percent to the present greenhouse effect. Natural wetlands currently constitute the biggest methane source and were the major source in preindustrial times. Wetland emissions depend highly on the climate, i.e., on soil temperature and water table. To investigate the response of methane emissions from natural wetlands to climate variations, a process-based model that derives methane emissions from natural wetlands as a function of soil temperature, water table, and net primary productivity is used. For its application on the global scale, global data sets for all model parameters are generated. In addition, a simple hydrologic model is developed in order to simulate the position of the water table in wetlands. The hydrologic model is tested against data from different wetland sites, and the sensitivity of the hydrologic model to changes in precipitation is examined. The global methane­ hydrology model constitutes a tool to study temporal and spatial variations in methane emissions from natural wetlands. The model is applied using high-frequency atmospheric forcing fields from European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) re-analyses of the period from 1982 to 1993. We calculate global annual methane emissions from wetlands to be 260 teragrams per year. Twenty-five percent of these methane emissions originate from wetlands north of 30 degrees North Latitude. Only 60 percent of the produced methane is emitted, while the rest is re-oxidized. A comparison of zonal integrals of simulated global wetland emissions and results obtained by an inverse modeling approach shows good agreement. In a test with data from two wetlands the seasonality of simulated and observed methane emissions agrees well.

Biogeochemical processes↗

RACORO Continental Boundary Layer Cloud Investigations: 1. Case Study Development and Ensemble Large-Scale Forcings

Observation-based modeling case studies of continental boundary layer clouds have been developed to study cloudy boundary layers, aerosol influences upon them, and their representation in cloud- and global-scale models. Three 60 h case study periods span the temporal evolution of cumulus, stratiform, and drizzling boundary layer cloud systems, representing mixed and transitional states rather than idealized or canonical cases. Based on in situ measurements from the Routine AAF (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility) CLOWD (Clouds with Low Optical Water Depth) Optical Radiative Observations (RACORO) field campaign and remote sensing observations, the cases are designed with a modular configuration to simplify use in large-eddy simulations (LES) and single-column models. Aircraft measurements of aerosol number size distribution are fit to lognormal functions for concise representation in models. Values of the aerosol hygroscopicity parameter, kappa, are derived from observations to be approximately 0.10, which are lower than the 0.3 typical over continents and suggestive of a large aerosol organic fraction. Ensemble large-scale forcing data sets are derived from the ARM variational analysis, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and a multiscale data assimilation system. The forcings are assessed through comparison of measured bulk atmospheric and cloud properties to those computed in "trial" large-eddy simulations, where more efficient run times are enabled through modest reductions in grid resolution and domain size compared to the full-sized LES grid. Simulations capture many of the general features observed, but the state-of-the-art forcings were limited at representing details of cloud onset, and tight gradients and high-resolution transients of importance. Methods for improving the initial conditions and forcings are discussed. The cases developed are available to the general modeling community for studying continental boundary clouds.

Boundary layers↗

Real-Time Safety Monitoring and Prediction for the National Airspace System

As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have both an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecasts, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. To this end, we have developed a Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) that first, estimates the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Then, given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, the framework predicts the evolution of the NAS, i.e., the future state, and analyzes these future states to predict the occurrence of unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace safety metrics is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type and or parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach by predicting the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress.

National Airspace System↗

SMAP Data Assimilation at NASA SPoRT

The NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center maintains a near-real- time run of the Noah Land Surface Model within the Land Information System (LIS) at 3-km resolution. Soil moisture products from this model are used by several NOAA/National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices for flood and drought situational awareness. We have implemented assimilation of soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and Soil Moisture Active/ Passive (SMAP) satellites, and are now evaluating the SMAP assimilation. The SMAP-enhanced LIS product is planned for public release by October 2016.

soil mositure↗