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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
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NASA NTRS1999

Quantifying Uncertainties in the Thermo-Mechanical Properties of Particulate Reinforced Composites

The present paper reports results from a computational simulation of probabilistic particulate reinforced composite behavior. The approach consists use of simplified micromechanics of particulate reinforced composites together with a Fast Probability Integration (FPI) technique. Sample results are presented for a Al/SiC(sub p)(silicon carbide particles in aluminum matrix) composite. The probability density functions for composite moduli, thermal expansion coefficient and thermal conductivities along with their sensitivity factors are computed. The effect of different assumed distributions and the effect of reducing scatter in constituent properties on the thermal expansion coefficient are also evaluated. The variations in the constituent properties that directly effect these composite properties are accounted for by assumed probabilistic distributions. The results show that the present technique provides valuable information about the scatter in composite properties and sensitivity factors, which are useful to test or design engineers.

Mital, Subodh K.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Uncertainty in Satellite Rainfall Estimates: Time Series Comparison

We examined nine satellite rainfall algorithms and compared the rain fields produced from these algorithms for the period of August 1987 to December 1988. Preliminary results show algorithms which use the same satellite sensor data tend to be similar, suggesting the importance of sampling. Oceanic global mean rainfall ranges from 2.7 to 3.6 mm/d. The variability in zonal mean rain rate is about 1.5-2 mm/d for these algorithms.

Chang, Alfred T. C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Lunar Prospector Orbit Determination Uncertainties Using the High Resolution Lunar Gravity Models

The Lunar Prospector (LP) mission began on January 6, 1998, when the LP spacecraft was launched from Cape Canaveral, Florida. The objectives of the mission were to determine whether water ice exists at the lunar poles, generate a global compositional map of the lunar surface, detect lunar outgassing, and improve knowledge of the lunar magnetic and gravity fields. Orbit determination of LP performed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) is conducted as part of the principal science investigation of the lunar gravity field. This paper will describe the JPL effort in support of the LP Gravity Investigation. This support includes high precision orbit determination, gravity model validation, and data editing. A description of the mission and its trajectory will be provided first, followed by a discussion of the orbit determination estimation procedure and models. Accuracies will be examined in terms of orbit-to-orbit solution differences, as a function of oblateness model truncation, and inclination in the plane-of-sky. Long term predictions for several gravity fields will be compared to the reconstructed orbits to demonstrate the accuracy of the orbit determination and oblateness fields developed by the Principal Gravity Investigator.

Carranza, Eric↗
NASA NTRS2000

Executing Temporal Networks With Uncertainty

Simple Temporal Networks (STNs) have proved useful in applications that involve metric time. However, many applications involve events whose timing is uncertain in the sense that it is not controlled by the execution agent. In this paper we consider execution algorithms for temporal networks with events of uncertain duration. We present two such algorithms. The first retains maximum flexibility, but requires potentially costly updates during execution. The second surrenders some flexibility in order to obtain a fast execution comparable to that available for ordinary STNs.

Morris, Paul↗
NASA NTRS2000

Uncertainty Analysis of Stiffened Composite Panels

A study is made of the variability in the nonlinear response of three stiffened composite panels associated with variations in their geometric and material parameters. The three panels have a cylindrical skin with either four or five T-shaped stiffeners. Two of the panels have a notch and the third panel has a circular cutout. Hierarchical sensitivity analysis is used to identify the major parameters at the micro-mechanical, layer, laminate and sub-component levels. The major parameters are then taken to be fuzzy parameters, and a fuzzy set analysis is used to determine the range of variation of the response associated with pre-selected variations in the major parameters.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Uncertainty Analysis of Composite Structures

A two-phase approach and a computational procedure are presented for predicting the variability in the nonlinear response of composite structures associated with variations in the geometric and material parameters of the structure. In the first phase, hierarchical sensitivity analysis is used to identify the major parameters, which have the most effect on the response quantities of interest. In the second phase, the major parameters are taken to be fuzzy parameters, and a fuzzy set analysis is used to determine the range of variation of the response, associated with preselected variations in the major parameters. The effectiveness of the procedure is demonstrated by means of a numerical example of a cylindrical panel with four T-shaped stiffeners and a circular cutout.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Uncertainties of the Intensity of the 1130 nm Band of Water Vapor

Belmiloud, et al have recently suggested that the HITRAN line intensities in the 1130 nm water vapor band are much too weak. Giver, et at corrected unit conversion errors to make the HITRAN intensities compatible with the original measurements of Mandin, et al, but Belmiloud, et al believe that many of those line intensity measurements were too weak, and they propose the total intensity of the 1130 nm water vapor band is 38% stronger than the sum of the HITRAN line intensities in this region. We have made independent assessments of this proposal using 2 spectra obtained with the Ames 25 meter base path White cell. The first was made using the moderate resolution (8 nm) solar spectral flux radiometer (SSFR) flight instrument with a White cell absorbing path of 506 meters and 10 torr water vapor pressure. Modeling this spectrum using the HITRAN linelist gives a reasonable match, and the model is not compatible when the HITRAN line intensities are increased by 38%. The second spectrum was obtained with a White cell path of 1106 meters and 12 torr water vapor pressure, using a Bomem FTIR with near Doppler width resolution. This spectrum is useful for measuring intensities of isolated weak lines to compare with the measurements of Mandin, et al. Unfortunately, as Belmiloud et al point out, at these conditions the strong lines are much too saturated for good intensity measurements. Our measurements of the weak lines are in reasonable agreement with those of Mandin, et al. Neither of our spectra supports the proposal of Belmiloud et al for a general 38% increase of the absorption intensity in the 1130 nm water vapor band.

Giver, L. P.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Free-form Airfoil Shape Optimization Under Uncertainty Using Maximum Expected Value and Second-order Second-moment Strategies

Free-form shape optimization of airfoils poses unexpected difficulties. Practical experience has indicated that a deterministic optimization for discrete operating conditions can result in dramatically inferior performance when the actual operating conditions are different from the - somewhat arbitrary - design values used for the optimization. Extensions to multi-point optimization have proven unable to adequately remedy this problem of "localized optimization" near the sampled operating conditions. This paper presents an intrinsically statistical approach and demonstrates how the shortcomings of multi-point optimization with respect to "localized optimization" can be overcome. The practical examples also reveal how the relative likelihood of each of the operating conditions is automatically taken into consideration during the optimization process. This is a key advantage over the use of multipoint methods.

Huyse, Luc↗
NASA NTRS2001

Dynamic Control of Plans with Temporal Uncertainty

Certain planning systems that deal with quantitative time constraints have used an underlying Simple Temporal Problem solver to ensure temporal consistency of plans. However, many applications involve processes of uncertain duration whose timing cannot be controlled by the execution agent. These cases require more complex notions of temporal feasibility. In previous work, various "controllability" properties such as Weak, Strong, and Dynamic Controllability have been defined. The most interesting and useful Controllability property, the Dynamic one, has ironically proved to be the most difficult to analyze. In this paper, we resolve the complexity issue for Dynamic Controllability. Unexpectedly, the problem turns out to be tractable. We also show how to efficiently execute networks whose status has been verified.

Morris, Paul↗
NASA NTRS1994

Impact of Uncertainties and Errors in Converting NWS Radiosonde Hygristor Resistances to Relative Humidity

A set of 2,600 6-second, National Weather Service soundings from NASA's FIRE-II Cirrus field experiment are used to illustrate previously known errors and new potential errors in the VIZ and SDD ) brand relative humidity (RH) sensors and the MicroART processing software. The entire spectrum of RH is potentially affected by at least one of these errors. (These errors occur before being converted to dew point temperature.) Corrections to the errors are discussed. Examples are given of the effect that these errors and biases may have on numerical weather prediction and radiative transfer. The figure shows the OLR calculated for the corrected and uncorrected soundings using an 18-band radiative transfer code. The OLR differences are sufficiently large to warrant consideration when validating line-by-line radiation calculations that use radiosonde data to specify the atmospheric state, or when validating satellite retrievals. in addition, a comparison of observations of RH during FIRE-II derived from GOES satellite, raman lidar, MAPS analyses, NCAR CLASS sondes, and the NWS sondes reveals disagreement in the RH distribution and underlines our lack of an understanding of the climatology of water vapor.

Westphal, Douglas L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Impact of Uncertainties and Errors in Converting NWS Radiosonde Hygristor Resistances to Relative Humidity

A set of 2,600 6-second, National Weather Service soundings from NASA's FIRE-II Cirrus field experiment are used to illustrate previously known errors and new potential errors in the VIZ and SDD brand relative humidity (RH) sensors and the MicroART processing software. The entire spectrum of RH is potentially affected by at least one of these errors. (These errors occur before being converted to dew point temperature.) Corrections to the errors are discussed. Examples are given of the effect that these errors and biases may have on numerical weather prediction and radiative transfer. The figure shows the OLR calculated for the corrected and uncorrected soundings using an 18-band radiative transfer code. The OLR differences are sufficiently large to warrant consideration when validating line-by-line radiation calculations that use radiosonde data to specify the atmospheric state, or when validating satellite retrievals. In addition, a comparison of observations of RE during FIRE-II derived from GOES satellite, raman lidar, MAPS analyses, NCAR CLASS sondes, and the NWS sondes reveals disagreement in the RH distribution and underlines our lack of an understanding of the climatology of water vapor.

Westphal, Douglas L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Estimation of Rainfall Sampling Uncertainty: A Comparison of Two Diverse Approaches

The spatial and temporal intermittence of rainfall causes the averages of satellite observations of rain rate to differ from the "true" average rain rate over any given area and time period, even if the satellite observations are perfectly accurate. The difference of satellite averages based on occasional observation by satellite systems and the continuous-time average of rain rate is referred to as sampling error. In this study, rms sampling error estimates are obtained for average rain rates over boxes 100 km, 200 km, and 500 km on a side, for averaging periods of 1 day, 5 days, and 30 days. The study uses a multi-year, merged radar data product provided by Weather Services International Corp. at a resolution of 2 km in space and 15 min in time, over an area of the central U.S. extending from 35N to 45N in latitude and 100W to 80W in longitude. The intervals between satellite observations are assumed to be equal, and similar In size to what present and future satellite systems are able to provide (from 1 h to 12 h). The sampling error estimates are obtained using a resampling method called "resampling by shifts," and are compared to sampling error estimates proposed by Bell based on earlier work by Laughlin. The resampling estimates are found to scale with areal size and time period as the theory predicts. The dependence on average rain rate and time interval between observations is also similar to what the simple theory suggests.

Steiner, Matthias↗
NASA NTRS2002

Options for Robust Airfoil Optimization under Uncertainty

A robust optimization method is developed to overcome point-optimization at the sampled design points. This method combines the best features from several preliminary methods proposed by the authors and their colleagues. The robust airfoil shape optimization is a direct method for drag reduction over a given range of operating conditions and has three advantages: (1) it prevents severe degradation in the off-design performance by using a smart descent direction in each optimization iteration, (2) it uses a large number of spline control points as design variables yet the resulting airfoil shape does not need to be smoothed, and (3) it allows the user to make a tradeoff between the level of optimization and the amount of computing time consumed. For illustration purposes, the robust optimization method is used to solve a lift-constrained drag minimization problem for a two-dimensional (2-D) airfoil in Euler flow with 20 geometric design variables.

Padula, Sharon L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Estimating Uncertainty in GPCP and TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimates

One of the high-priority problems in satellite precipitation estimation is developing algorithms for estimating the errors in precipitation retrievals by individual sensors and subsequent multi-satellite combinations. Classically, we distinguish between "random" and "bias" errors, which do and do not, respectively average to zero over a "big enough" time/space sample. The current operational GPCP and TRMM multi-satellite algorithms are nearly unique in estimating random error for the monthly precipitation estimates from individual sensor systems (including gauge), following Huffman, and then making multi-sensor combinations. No routinely operational global precipitation produces estimates of bias error. Subsequently, a similar scheme has been followed to provide random error estimates for the Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA) being computed in real time and after real time for TRMM. The Huffman algorithm for random error is briefly reviewed, including a discussion of the limitations imposed on the algorithm by standard monthly precipitation data sets. Starting from a very simple theoretical treatment of the histogram of precipitation samples in a month, an equation is developed that depends on the estimated average precipitation rate for the month, the number of samples in the month, and two constants. The constants are set separately for each source of precipitation estimate (such as "raingauge") by calibration at selected ground sites. We discuss recent work validating the random error estimates to highlight the successes and limitations of this first-generation approach. We then consider what information is needed from the individual sensor algorithms to facilitate additional accuracy in the estimation of random errors across the time/space span of climate regimes which a global estimation system must handle. In addition, the thorny issue of estimating bias is raised. Finally, the role of error estimates (and the qualitative errors!) in creating combinations of precipitation estimates from different individual sensors is discussed. This issue is particularly important when fine scales in space and time are being considered, say the 0.25 x 0.25-deg 3-hourly estimates in the MPA.

Huffman, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Overview of Probabilistic Methods for SAE G-11 Meeting for Reliability and Uncertainty Quantification for DoD TACOM Initiative with SAE G-11 Division

The SAE G-11 RMSL Division and Probabilistic Methods Committee meeting during October 6-8 at the Best Western Sterling Inn, Sterling Heights (Detroit), Michigan is co-sponsored by US Army Tank-automotive & Armaments Command (TACOM). The meeting will provide an industry/government/academia forum to review RMSL technology; reliability and probabilistic technology; reliability-based design methods; software reliability; and maintainability standards. With over 100 members including members with national/international standing, the mission of the G-11's Probabilistic Methods Committee is to "enable/facilitate rapid deployment of probabilistic technology to enhance the competitiveness of our industries by better, faster, greener, smarter, affordable and reliable product development."

Singhal, Surendra N.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Using High Resolution Design Spaces for Aerodynamic Shape Optimization Under Uncertainty

This paper explains why high resolution design spaces encourage traditional airfoil optimization algorithms to generate noisy shape modifications, which lead to inaccurate linear predictions of aerodynamic coefficients and potential failure of descent methods. By using auxiliary drag constraints for a simultaneous drag reduction at all design points and the least shape distortion to achieve the targeted drag reduction, an improved algorithm generates relatively smooth optimal airfoils with no severe off-design performance degradation over a range of flight conditions, in high resolution design spaces parameterized by cubic B-spline functions. Simulation results using FUN2D in Euler flows are included to show the capability of the robust aerodynamic shape optimization method over a range of flight conditions.

Li, Wu↗
NASA NTRS2002

Reducing uncertainty about carbon dioxide as a climate driver

The lack of an adequate ancient analogue for future climates means that we ultimately must use and trust climate models, evaluated against modern observation and our best geologic records of warm and cold climates of the past. Armed with an elevated confidence in the models, we will then be able to make reliable predictions of the Earth's response to our risky experiment with the climate system.

Climate↗