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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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The roles of learning mechanisms in services: Evidence from US residential solar installations
Non-hardware costs are majority of the cost of producing solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity. Here we use matched data on patents and over 125,000 residential PV installations to estimate the effects of three learning mechanisms in reducing PV costs: learning by doing, searching, and interacting. While previous work in this area has focused predominantly on learning by doing, we find that learning by searching and interacting are also significant mechanisms to facilitate non-hardware cost reductions. Including these two mechanisms reduces the effect of learning by doing in explaining non-hardware cost reductions by 43%. Our results suggest that prior work may overemphasize the role of learning by doing and the policies that help generate learning by doing. Analysis of the supplier-network between installers and their suppliers shows that concentrated supplier networks are associated with lower non-hardware costs, although there are key differences between installer-panel and installer-inverter manufacturer networks. An important implication is that policies for reducing non-hardware costs need to take a more complete view of how different learning mechanisms engender cost reductions. They should particularly consider the important role of learning in supplier networks in cost reductions—an effect that until now has largely been missing in analyses of solar non-hardware costs.
Case study on the novel permitting and authorization of PacWave South, a US grid-connected wave energy test facility: Development, challenges, and insights
Marine energy (i.e., energy from waves, tides, currents, and rivers) in the United States is a nascent industry. In particular, permitting processes—an uncertainty for industry advancement that can be costly and time consuming to navigate—have rarely been tested and used for marine energy. The novelty of the marine energy industry and utilization of open ocean permitting processes that were not originally developed for marine energy have led to extensive efforts to gain consensus amongst state and federal regulatory agencies to authorize marine energy projects. In 2021, Oregon State University successfully completed permitting of a wave energy test facility, called PacWave South, off the coast of Oregon, which is designed to advance wave energy research and development. This article documents the multi-year process that Oregon State University used to receive federal and state authorization for a pre-permitted commercial-scale grid connected facility by detailing the development of the test facility, management of uncertainty and challenges, and key decisions. The PacWave South case study provides insights for the larger marine energy community as the industry advances towards commercialization.
Urban heat island impacts on heat-related cardiovascular morbidity: A time series analysis of older adults in US metropolitan areas
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US state-level capacity expansion pathways with improved modeling of the power sector dynamics within a multisector model
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Modeling the Potential Impact of Storage on the US Power Sector in a Multisector Dynamic Context
The electric power sector is expected to grow in size, importance, and complexity around the world as economies expand and electric supply technologies and demand patterns evolve in significant ways. At the same time the electric power sector may see substantial increases in VRE generating technologies which can add variability and uncertainty to the diurnal and seasonal profile of electric supply. With these forces in play, the emergence of modular, flexible electricity storage technologies may have profound impacts on the operation of electric power systems. Here we reduce a storage modeling gap in MSD models by incorporating grid-based electricity storage into the electric sector dynamics of the Global Change Analysis Model-USA (GCAM-USA) with improved power sector representation. We find a potentially significant role for storage technologies in the future of the U.S. power system, with storage capacity ranging from 7.7 to 14.7 GW in 2050 and 13.9 to 31.6 GW in 2100 across several techno-economic scenarios. We also find that storage can help to smooth variability in residual load arising from evolving electricity demands and the introduction of high shares of VRE to the electric grid. This reduces reliance on high-cost peaking generators, improves system-wide capacity factors, and limits curtailment of VRE.
Profiling overstory survival trends following varying thinning and burning disturbance regimes in a mixed pine-hardwood forest in the US South
Prescribed burning as a silvicultural tool may be effective for achieving various management objectives, yet some practitioners have concerns about inadvertently increasing overstory tree mortality. Using extensive data from a long-term, ongoing study in northcentral Alabama, USA, that systematically applies a variety of thinning and prescribed burning disturbances on mixed pine-hardwood stands, we assess survival trends for different groups of trees. The primary research question is whether more frequent prescribed burns adversely affects overstory survival versus infrequent or no burns; secondary questions explore whether overstory survival trends differ based on thinning level, species group, or size class. Interest is in broad groups of trees, not individual tree survival or mortality; consequently, survival analysis methods are used, including nonparametric Kaplan-Meier (KM) techniques for examining single grouping factors, and parametric accelerated failure time models for analyzing simultaneous effects of multiple covariates. Leveraging relatively recent methodological advances, the statistical techniques are adjusted for interval censored data. KM survival curves showed that more frequent prescribed fires did not result in differing survival trends. Also, trees in unthinned stands had the lowest 14-year survival compared to thinned stands, oaks had the highest survival compared to pines and the others species group, and the smallest size class of overstory trees had the lowest survival. In conclusion, these results support managing transitional mixed pine-hardwoods using thinning and multiple prescribed fires to restore specific species composition and structure.
Land use-land cover gradient demonstrates the importance of perennial grasslands with intact soils for building soil carbon in the fertile Mollisols of the North Central US
The impact of land use change and agricultural management on the cycling of soil organic carbon (SOC) is not well understood, limiting our ability to manage for, and accurately model, soil carbon changes at both local and regional scales. To address this issue, here we combined long-term soil incubations with acid-hydrolysis and dry combustion to parse total SOC (C t ) into three operationally defined SOC pools (active, slow, and recalcitrant) from 9 long-term sites with varying land uses on current and former tallgrass prairie soil. Land uses represented a gradient of soil disturbance histories including remnant prairie, restored prairie, grazed pasture, annual crop rotations, and continuous maize. Dry combustion was used to estimate total carbon (C t , physical), while acid hydrolysis of both the active (C a ) and slow (C s ) pools was used to estimate a recalcitrant carbon pool (C r , chemical). Non-linear modeling of CO 2 efflux data from the long-term incubations was then used to estimate C a , and the decomposition rates of both C a and C s (k a and k r , biological). The size of the slow pools C s was then defined mathematically as C t- (C a + C r ). Remnant prairie had the highest C t , while cool-season pasture and a 35-y-old restored prairie had higher C t than the other agricultural systems. All agricultural systems, including pasture, had the highest fraction of C t as C r (~50%), whose mean residence time (MRT) in these soils is ≥500 years (Paul et al., 2001a) demonstrating that this fraction persists, while the more labile fractions were lost over the course of a few months (C a ) to a few decades (C s ) as a result of tillage-intensive agriculture. The two- to four-decade MRT time of C s indicated a pool likely to be more responsive to the 20 to 40 years of land-use practices used at some of the sites. The C s pool was largest in the remnant- and 35-y-old prairies indicating significant C accrual and stabilization compared to the agricultural ecosystems. Interestingly, the remnant prairie maintained the highest C a pool as well, demonstrating the strong connection between the quantity of fresh C inputs and the potential for long-term C stabilization and accrual. The accumulation of C in active (≈labile) pools as a first step toward long-term stabilization highlights the tenuous nature of early carbon gains, which can be quickly lost in response to climate change or poor management.
Association of HFE genotypes with hemochromatosis-related phenotypes in the All of Us research program
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Techno-economic pathway for green hydrogen adoption in thermal applications across US small and medium manufacturing sectors
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Evaluating the sustainability of the 2017 US biofuel industry with an integrated techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment
The United States produced more than 66.2 billion Liters of biofuel, primarily in the form of corn ethanol (61 billion Liters) and soybean biodiesel (6 billion Liters), for the transportation industry in 2017. No work currently exists that evaluates both the economic and environmental outcomes of this industry with adequate geospatial resolution and national scope. In this study, a model framework is constructed to perform Techno-Economic Analysis and Life Cycle Assessment using high-resolution input datasets to provide a granular estimation of corn ethanol and soybean biodiesel sustainability performance in most counties in the United States in 2017 (the most recent year for which data is available). Results show a total life cycle, greenhouse gas emission volume of 99.5 million Mg CO 2-eq produced in 2017 by these two biofuels (94.8 million Mg from corn ethanol, and 4.7 million Mg from soybean biodiesel), excluding indirect land use change emissions. Further, this volume corresponds to a combined carbon intensity of 65.3 gCO 2-eq /MJ, which is a greenhouse gas improvement compared to petroleum-based gasoline (the carbon intensity of conventional gasoline is 93.0 gCO 2-eq /MJ). However, these biofuels are produced at an additional economic cost ($1.8 billion over the displaced gas/diesel). Additionally, these biofuels generate unfavorable impacts in other environmental categories when compared to petroleum-based fuels, particularly in areas of water, land, and nitrogen intensity. This work enables stakeholders to assess the specific value of biofuels as a means of emission reduction and determine if the attained improvements are worth the associated opportunity costs.
To what extent can decommissioning options for marine artificial structures move us toward environmental targets?
Switching from fossil fuels to renewable energy is key to international energy transition efforts and the move toward net zero. For many nations, this requires decommissioning of hundreds of oil and gas infrastructure in the marine environment. Current international, regional and national legislation largely dictates that structures must be completely removed at end-of-life although, increasingly, alternative decommissioning options are being promoted and implemented. Yet, a paucity of real-world case studies describing the impacts of decommissioning on the environment make decision-making with respect to which option(s) might be optimal for meeting international and regional strategic environmental targets challenging. To address this gap, we draw together international expertise and judgment from marine environmental scientists on marine artificial structures as an alternative source of evidence that explores how different decommissioning options might ameliorate pressures that drive environmental status toward (or away) from environmental objectives. Synthesis reveals that for 37 United Nations and Oslo-Paris Commissions (OSPAR) global and regional environmental targets, experts consider repurposing or abandoning individual structures, or abandoning multiple structures across a region, as the options that would most strongly contribute toward targets. This collective view suggests complete removal may not be best for the environment or society. However, different decommissioning options act in different ways and make variable contributions toward environmental targets, such that policy makers and managers would likely need to prioritise some targets over others considering political, social, economic, and ecological contexts. Current policy may not result in optimal outcomes for the environment or society.
Our national nutrient reduction needs: Applying a conservation prioritization framework to US agricultural lands
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Effects of surface runoff and infiltration partition methods on hydrological modeling: A comparison of four schemes in two watersheds in the Northeastern US
The ratio according to which the precipitation/snowmelt is divided into surface and subsurface water is of primary importance to watershed scale hydrological modeling. The present study compared four different surface runoff and infiltration partition methods in the Richards-equation-based SWAT model (RSWAT), i.e., daily curve number method (DC-RSWAT), hourly curve number method (HC-RSWAT), Green-Ampt method (GA-RSWAT), and effective infiltration capacity method (EIC-RSWAT). These four versions of RSWAT and a daily-curve-number-based SWAT (DC-SWAT) were used to simulate daily flow rate (from 2001 to 2015) at the outlets of the Tuckahoe Creek Watershed (TCW) and Greensboro Watershed (GW) of the Chesapeake Bay in Maryland. Parameter sensitivity analysis, calibration, and prediction uncertainty analysis were conducted. The results indicate that surface runoff and infiltration partition methods have pronounced impacts on model performance. Comparative analysis showed that DC-RSWAT outperformed other versions of RSWAT for both calibration (from 2001 to2007) and validation (from 2008 to 2015) periods in the two test watersheds. In general, DC-RSWAT achieved more accurate deterministic flow simulation and reliable uncertainty estimation than other versions. As such, daily-curve-number method is recommended for surface runoff and infiltration partition in RSWAT for simulating stream flow.
A high-resolution, 3D groundwater-surface water simulation of the contiguous US: Advances in the integrated ParFlow CONUS 2.0 modeling platform
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