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The SURE reliability analysis program is discussed as well as the ASSIST model generation program. It is found that semi-Markov modeling using model reduction strategies with the ASSIST program can be used to accurately solve problems at least as complex as other reliability analysis tools can solve. Moreover, semi-Markov analysis provides the flexibility needed for modeling realistic fault-tolerant systems.
Reliable and continuous meteorological data are crucial for modeling the responses of energy systems and their components to weather and climate conditions, particularly in densely populated urban areas. However, existing long-term datasets often suffer from spatial and temporal gaps and inconsistencies, posing great challenges for detailed urban energy system modeling and cross-city comparison under realistic weather conditions. Here we introduce the Historical Comprehensive Hourly Urban Weather Database (CHUWD-H) v1.0, a 23-year (1998-2020) gap-free and quality-controlled hourly weather dataset covering 550 weather station locations across all urban areas in the contiguous United States. CHUWD-H v1.0 synthesizes hourly weather observations from stations with outputs from a physics-based solar radiation model and a reanalysis dataset through a multi-step gap filling approach. A 10-fold Monte Carlo cross-validation suggests that the accuracy of this gap filling approach surpasses that of conventional gap filling methods. Designed primarily for urban energy system modeling, CHUWD-H v1.0 should also support historical urban meteorological and climate studies, including the validation and evaluation of urban climate modeling.
A reliable isotope heat source simulator was designed for use in a Brayton power system. This simulator is composed of an electrically heated tungsten wire which is wound around a boron nitride core and enclosed in a graphite jacket. Simulator testing was performed at the expected operating temperature of the Brayton power system. Endurance testing for 5012 hours was followed by cycling the simulator temperature. The integrity of this simulator was maintained throughout testing. Alumina beads served as a diffusion barrier to prevent interaction between the tungsten heater and boron nitride core. The simulator was designed to maintain a surface temperature of 1311 to 1366 K (1900 to 2000 F) with a power input of approximately 400 watts. The design concept and the materials used in the simulator make possible man different geometries. This flexibility increases its potential use.
Accurate analysis of reliability of system requires that it accounts for all major variations in system's operation. Most reliability analyses assume that the system configuration, success criteria, and component behavior remain the same. However, multiple phases are natural. We present a new computationally efficient technique for analysis of phased-mission systems where the operational states of a system can be described by combinations of components states (such as fault trees or assertions). Moreover, individual components may be repaired, if failed, as part of system operation but repairs are independent of the system state. For repairable systems Markov analysis techniques are used but they suffer from state space explosion. That limits the size of system that can be analyzed and it is expensive in computation. We avoid the state space explosion. The phase algebra is used to account for the effects of variable configurations, repairs, and success criteria from phase to phase. Our technique yields exact (as opposed to approximate) results. We demonstrate our technique by means of several examples and present numerical results to show the effects of phases and repairs on the system reliability/availability.
The reliability and fault tolerance requirements of integrated, critical, digital fly-by-wire control systems for advanced military and civil aircraft requires redundant, reconfigurable implementations of the actuation system. An effective way for controlling the actuators and implementing the required fault detection and reconfiguration strategies is by means of dedicated microprocessors. This paper describes a laboratory implementation of a flexible intelligent redundant actuation system capable of demonstrating the concept and analyzing a variety of configurations and technical issues.
Reliable power system operation requires that system operators maintain a satisfactory small-signal stability margin at all times. Mode meters allow system operators to continuously monitor the stability margin by analyzing synchrophasor measurements. Experience with mode meters at the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) has revealed that mode meters sometimes suffer severe bias following transient disturbances. In this paper, a robust version of the Yule-Walker mode meter algorithm is proposed to mitigate this bias. The robust capability is introduced by modifying the estimator of the autocovariance sequence (ACS) on which the algorithm depends. Tests with field-measured data demonstrate that the robust Yule-Walker (RYW) algorithm significantly outperforms its conventional counterpart and is better able to provide system operators with accurate information about the system's stability margin.
Recycling life support systems can achieve ultra reliability by using spares to replace failed components. The added mass for spares is approximately equal to the original system mass, provided the original system reliability is not very low. Acceptable reliability can be achieved for the space shuttle and space station by preventive maintenance and by replacing failed units, However, this maintenance and repair depends on a logistics supply chain that provides the needed spares. The Mars mission must take all the needed spares at launch. The Mars mission also must achieve ultra reliability, a very low failure rate per hour, since it requires years rather than weeks and cannot be cut short if a failure occurs. Also, the Mars mission has a much higher mass launch cost per kilogram than shuttle or station. Achieving ultra reliable space life support with acceptable mass will require a well-planned and extensive development effort. Analysis must define the reliability requirement and allocate it to subsystems and components. Technologies, components, and materials must be designed and selected for high reliability. Extensive testing is needed to ascertain very low failure rates. Systems design should segregate the failure causes in the smallest, most easily replaceable parts. The systems must be designed, produced, integrated, and tested without impairing system reliability. Maintenance and failed unit replacement should not introduce any additional probability of failure. The overall system must be tested sufficiently to identify any design errors. A program to develop ultra reliable space life support systems with acceptable mass must start soon if it is to produce timely results for the moon and Mars.
Microgrids are an emerging alternative as an energy backup system for critical electric loads and have improved performance compared to the traditional architecture where a single emergency diesel generator is tied to an individual building. Both architectures are dependent on the reliability of their individual generators and a quantitative and realistic comparison of the overall system reliability of the two architectures is lacking. Using recently published work on emergency diesel generator finite reliability, a quantitative methodology is presented to compare the reliability of a microgrid architecture based on centralized emergency diesel generators to the traditional approach of generators tied to individual buildings. Three system reliability performance metrics are calculated as a function of outage duration: (1) probability to meet 100% of the critical load; (2) expected fraction of lost load; and (3) probability to meet the highest priority critical loads. It is shown that stand-alone building-tied emergency diesel generators systems, even when two emergency diesel generators are used per building, cannot provide the reliability required to sustain critical loads for a grid outage lasting multiple days. Due to their network configuration and ability to share load, diesel generator-based microgrid configurations are estimated to have = 93% probability of powering all buildings for a 2-week outage there the individual building-tied emergency diesel generator architecture has a =20% probability. Microgrids do present other susceptibilities that are site specific and should be considered including vulnerabilities associated with the on-campus distribution system and cybersecurity.
Under a voting strategy in a fault-tolerant software system there is a difference between correctness and agreement. An independent N-version programming reliability model is proposed for treating small output spaces which distinguishes between correctness and agreement. System reliability is investigated using analytical relationships and simulation. A consensus majority voting strategy is proposed and its performance is analyzed and compared with other voting strategies. Consensus majority strategy automatically adapts the voting to different component reliability and output space cardinality characteristics. It is shown that absolute majority voting strategy provides a lower bound on the reliability provided by the consensus majority, and 2-of-n voting strategy an upper bound. If r is the cardinality of the output space it is proved the 1/r is a lower bound on the average reliability of fault-tolerant system components below which the system reliability begins to deteriorate as more versions are added.
Under a voting strategy in a fault-tolerant software system there is a difference between correctness and agreement. An independent N-version programming reliability model is proposed for treating small output spaces which distinguishes between correctness and agreement. System reliability is investigated using analytical relationships and simulation. A consensus majority voting stratey is proposed and its performance is analyzed and compared with other voting strategies. A consensus voting strategy automatically adapts the voting to diffeerent component reliability and output space cardinality characteristics. It is shown that absolute majority voting strategy provides a lower bound on the reliability provided by the consensus majority, and the 2-of-n voting strategy an upper bound. If r is the cardinality of output space it is proved that 1/r is a lower bound on the average reliability of fault-tolerant system components below which the system reliability begins to deteriorate as more versions are added.
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Emulation techniques can be a solution to a difficulty that arises in the analysis of the reliability of guidance and control computer systems for future commercial aircraft. Described here is the difficulty, the lack of credibility of reliability estimates obtained by analytical modeling techniques. The difficulty is an unavoidable consequence of the following: (1) a reliability requirement so demanding as to make system evaluation by use testing infeasible; (2) a complex system design technique, fault tolerance; (3) system reliability dominated by errors due to flaws in the system definition; and (4) elaborate analytical modeling techniques whose precision outputs are quite sensitive to errors of approximation in their input data. Use of emulation techniques for pseudo-testing systems to evaluate bounds on the parameter values needed for the analytical techniques is then discussed. Finally several examples of the application of emulation techniques are described.
This paper presents the development of ICAROUS-2 (Independent Configurable Architecture for Reliable Operation of Unmanned Systems with Distributed Onboard Services), the second generation of a software architecture that integrates several algorithms as distributed onboard services to enable robust autonomous UAS applications. In particular, the ICAROUS architecture defines a framework to perform detect and avoid, geofencing, path monitoring, path planning, and autonomous decision making to ensure safety and mission progress. Most of the core algorithms implemented in ICAROUS are formally verified using an interactive theorem prover. These algorithms are composed together using a plan execution engine, whose operational semantics is formally specified. A description of the integrated architecture, services currently available, and flight test results highlighting the capability of ICAROUS are presented.
This paper presents the development of ICAROUS-2 (Independent Configurable Architecture for Reliable Operation of Unmanned Systems with Distributed Onboard Services), the second generation of a software architecture that integrates several algorithms as distributed onboard services to enable robust autonomous UAS applications. In particular, the ICAROUS architecture defines a framework to perform detect and avoid, geofencing, path monitoring, path planning, and autonomous decision making to ensure safety and mission progress. Most of the core algorithms implemented in ICAROUS are formally verified using an interactive theorem prover. These algorithms are composed together using a plan execution engine, whose operational semantics is formally specified. A description of the integrated architecture, services currently available, and flight test results highlighting the capability of ICAROUS are presented.
This paper describes an automated tool for performance and reliability assessment of digital avionics systems, called the Automated Design Tool Set (ADTS). ADTS is based on an integrated approach to design assessment that unifies traditional performance and reliability views of system designs, and that addresses interdependencies between performance and reliability behavior via exchange of parameters and result between mathematical models of each type. A multi-layer tool set architecture has been developed for ADTS that separates the concerns of system specification, model generation, and model solution. Performance and reliability models are generated automatically as a function of candidate system designs, and model results are expressed within the system specification. The layered approach helps deal with the inherent complexity of the design assessment process, and preserves long-term flexibility to accommodate a wide range of models and solution techniques within the tool set structure. ADTS research and development to date has focused on development of a language for specification of system designs as a basis for performance and reliability evaluation. A model generation and solution framework has also been developed for ADTS, that will ultimately encompass an integrated set of analytic and simulated based techniques for performance, reliability, and combined design assessment.
The high reliability requirements for airborne systems requires fault-tolerant architectures to address failures in the presence of physical faults, and the elimination of design flaws during the specification and validation phase of the design cycle. Although much progress has been made in developing methods to address physical faults, design flaws remain a serious problem. Formal methods provides a mathematical basis for removing design flaws from digital systems. DRS (Derivational Reasoning System) is a formal design tool based on advanced research in mathematical modeling and formal synthesis. The system implements a basic design algebra for synthesizing digital circuit descriptions from high level functional specifications. DRS incorporates an executable specification language, a set of correctness preserving transformations, verification interface, and a logic synthesis interface, making it a powerful tool for realizing hardware from abstract specifications. DRS integrates recent advances in transformational reasoning, automated theorem proving and high-level CAD synthesis systems in order to provide enhanced reliability in designs with reduced time and cost.
A redundant three axis analog control system was designed and developed to back up a digital fly by wire control system for an F-8C airplane. The mechanization and operational experience with the backup control system, the problems involved in synchronizing it with the primary system, and the reliability of the system are discussed. The backup control system was dissimilar to the primary system, and it provided satisfactory handling through the flight envelope evaluated. Limited flight tests of a variety of control tasks showed that control was also satisfactory when the backup control system was controlled by a minimum displacement (force) side stick. The operational reliability of the F-8 digital fly by wire control system was satisfactory, with no unintentional downmodes to the backup control system in flight. The ground and flight reliability of the system's components is discussed.
Method for total system availability analysis is based on numerical prediction of the reliability, maintainability, and availability of each function system. It incorporates these functional-system estimates into an overall mathematical model.