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DOE OSTI2023

Understanding and Improving Energy Efficiency of Regional Mobility Systems Leveraging System-Level Data

Increased congestion required urban Americans to travel 6.8 billion hours more and purchase 3.1 billion gallons of fuel for a congestion cost of $\$$153 billion, according to the 2019 Urban Mobility Report. How to effectively manage the regional mobility system and improve the energy efficiency presents a big challenge to public agencies. Recent years have witnessed massive multi-jurisdictional multi-modal system-level data from various sources, which provides an unprecedented opportunity to improve the mobility system and its energy efficiency. However, implications of system-level data for mobility and energy efficiency are unclear. Those system-level data sets are siloed, spatially and temporally sparse, biased, not unified, and lacking of insights for system management. Consequently, there is a real need to acquire, fuse, mine and learn from multi-source system-level data to prepare public agencies to deal more effectively with large-scale energy efficiency modeling, management and planning. This project proposes to intensively review inexpensive, replicable and openly-accessible data from multi-modal systems, develop a data-driven system-level modeling framework enabled and validated by data, identify the energy inefficiencies of mobility systems from infrastructure, vehicles, passenger systems, and quantify the benefits of system-level strategies to improve mobility/energy efficiency. In addition, this research develops models to effectively estimate energy consumption and emissions from various types of vehicles on the roadway networks, with high granularity and high fidelity. Traditional models often heavily rely on aggregated infrastructure or vehicle/passenger data, for example, the census survey, land-use, and traffic counts of one or several classes, which may lead to research gaps considering the emerging vehicle technologies. Those models do not contain individual vehicular information. We propose an integrated data-driven method that combines multiple network modeling components, featuring the utilization of state-wide vehicle registration data. The additional vehicle registration data improve the model performance, and produce high-resolution vehicle-specific estimates of emissions and network performance metrics. Two case studies on the Pittsburgh and Philadelphia regional network show that the proposed method can efficiently and effectively estimate the emissions of a large-scale network, and provide valuable information for evaluating common management strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-response Curves

NASA will soon be collecting noise-annoyance community survey data as the X-59 aircraft flies supersonically over several communities in the USA. Sparse measurements of the X-59 sonic thumps will be used together with physics-based simulations to estimate noise doses at survey participant locations. These dose estimates have associated error that affects the accuracy of modeled dose-response curves, which can result in misestimation of annoyance. The precision in dose-response curves is also a consideration in selecting the number of survey participants. To enable pretest studies of dose error and precision, simulated dose-response data were generated based on NASA’s Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 test. The data included various degrees of dose error and sample size. Frequentist multilevel logistic regression models were fit to the true and perturbed dose-response data. Simple proportional relationships were identified between the model parameters and the perturbation standard deviation. The summary dose-response curves illustrate the impact on accuracy if dose error is not accounted for in the model. The precision in the dose-response curves is also shown as the number of participants and degree of participation is varied. Finally, sampling variability is illustrated by showing the dose-response curves for several replicates with random draws of participants and errors.

X-59↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-Response Curves

X-59↗

DOE OSTI2021

Correcting correlation functions for redshift-dependent interloper contamination

ABSTRACT The construction of catalogues of a particular type of galaxy can be complicated by interlopers contaminating the sample. In spectroscopic galaxy surveys this can be due to the misclassification of an emission line; for example in the Hobby–Eberly Telescope Dark Energy Experiment (HETDEX) low-redshift [O ii] emitters may make up a few per cent of the observed Ly α emitter (LAE) sample. The presence of contaminants affects the measured correlation functions and power spectra. Previous attempts to deal with this using the cross-correlation function have assumed sources at a fixed redshift, or not modelled evolution within the adopted redshift bins. However, in spectroscopic surveys like HETDEX, where the contamination fraction is likely to be redshift dependent, the observed clustering of misclassified sources will appear to evolve strongly due to projection effects, even if their true clustering does not. We present a practical method for accounting for the presence of contaminants with redshift-dependent contamination fractions and projected clustering. We show using mock catalogues that our method, unlike existing approaches, yields unbiased clustering measurements from the upcoming HETDEX survey in scenarios with redshift-dependent contamination fractions within the redshift bins used. We show our method returns autocorrelation functions with systematic biases much smaller than the statistical noise for samples with at least as high as 7 per cent contamination. We also present and test a method for fitting for the redshift-dependent interloper fraction using the LAE–[O ii] galaxy cross-correlation function, which gives less biased results than assuming a single interloper fraction for the whole sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1985

On percolation as a cosmological test

Difficulties in the use of percolation as a complementary statistic for the galaxy clustering pattern are pointed out by studying simple toy models and dynamical N-body models that represent the competing clustering scenarios. The percolation properties are found not to be very sensitive to the presence of pancakes and strings once they are clumpy, and hence they do not distinguish properly between models that are very different. In the case of very smooth pancakes, the ability to percolate depends on sampling parameters, such as the mean number density and the volume, in a way which is unknown a priori because it depends on the same properties that the test ought to measure. This problem could, in principle, be eased by using volume-limited samples of high mean number density (an order of magnitude denser than the CfA redshift survey volume limited at 4000 km/s) and by comparing to models of identical number density and volume. An alternative approach, based on the sampling effects themselves, may provide a qualitative test for pancakes in samples of lower densities.

Dekel, A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

The CosmoVerse White Paper: Addressing observational tensions in cosmology with systematics and fundamental physics.

The standard model of cosmology has provided a good phenomenological description of a wide range of observations both at astrophysical and cosmological scales for several decades. This concordance model is constructed by a universal cosmological constant and supported by a matter sector described by the standard model of particle physics and a cold dark matter contribution, as well as very early-time inflationary physics, and underpinned by gravitation through general relativity. There have always been open questions about the soundness of the foundations of the standard model. However, recent years have shown that there may also be questions from the observational sector with the emergence of differences between certain cosmological probes. In this White Paper, we identify the key objectives that need to be addressed over the coming decade together with the core science projects that aim to meet these challenges. These discordances primarily rest on the divergence in the measurement of core cosmological parameters with varying levels of statistical confidence. These possible statistical tensions may be partially accounted for by systematics in various measurements or cosmological probes but there is also a growing indication of potential new physics beyond the standard model. After reviewing the principal probes used in the measurement of cosmological parameters, as well as potential systematics, we discuss the most promising array of potential new physics that may be observable in upcoming surveys. We also discuss the growing set of novel data analysis approaches that go beyond traditional methods to test physical models. These new methods will become increasingly important in the coming years as the volume of survey data continues to increase, and as the degeneracy between predictions of different physical models grows. There are several perspectives on the divergences between the values of cosmological parameters, such as the model-independent probes in the late Universe and model-dependent measurements in the early Universe, which we cover at length. The White Paper closes with a number of recommendations for the community to focus on for the upcoming decade of observational cosmology, statistical data analysis, and fundamental physics developments.

Dienes, Keith [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (Unite↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Conditional Autoencoder for Galaxy Photometric Parameter Estimation

Astronomical photometric surveys routinely image billions of galaxies, and traditionally infer the parameters of a parametric model for each galaxy. This approach has served us well, but the computational expense of deriving a full posterior probability distribution function is a challenge for increasingly ambitious surveys. In this paper, we use deep learning methods to characterize galaxy images, training a conditional autoencoder on mock data. The autoencoder can reconstruct and denoise galaxy images via a latent space engineered to include semantically meaningful parameters, such as brightness, location, size, and shape. Our model recovers galaxy fluxes and shapes on mock data with a lower variance than the Hyper Suprime-Cam photometry pipeline, and returns reasonable answers even for inputs outside the range of its training data. When applied to data in the training range, the regression errors on all extracted parameters are nearly unbiased with a variance near the Cramr-Rao bound.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Connect the Dots: In Situ 4-D Seismic Monitoring of CO 2 Storage With Spatio-Temporal CNNs

4-D seismic imaging has been widely used in CO 2 sequestration projects to monitor the fluid flow in the volumetric subsurface region that is not sampled by wells. Ideally, real-time monitoring and near-future forecasting would provide site operators with great insights to understand the dynamics of the subsurface reservoir and assess any potential risks. However, due to obstacles such as high deployment cost, availability of acquisition equipment, exclusion zones around surface structures, only very sparse seismic imaging data can be obtained during monitoring. That leads to an unavoidable and growing knowledge gap over time. The operator needs to understand the fluid flow throughout the project lifetime and the seismic data are only available at a limited number of times. This is insufficient for understanding reservoir behavior. To overcome those challenges, we have developed spatio-temporal neural-network-based models that can produce high-fidelity interpolated or extrapolated images effectively and efficiently. Specifically, our models are built on an autoencoder, and incorporate the long short-term memory (LSTM) structure with a new loss function regularized by optical flow. We validate the performance of our models using real 4-D post-stack seismic imaging data acquired at the Sleipner CO 2 sequestration field. We employ two different strategies in evaluating our models. Numerically, we compare our models with different baseline approaches using classic pixel-based metrics. We also conduct a blind survey and collect a total of 20 responses from domain experts to evaluate the quality of data generated by our models. Finally, via both numerical and expert evaluation, we conclude that our models can produce high-quality 2-D/3-D seismic imaging data at a reasonable cost, offering the possibility of real-time monitoring or even near-future forecasting of the CO 2 storage reservoir.

4-D seismic imaging↗

DOE OSTI2024

SPT clusters with DES and HST weak lensing. I. Cluster lensing and Bayesian population modeling of multiwavelength cluster datasets

We present a Bayesian population modeling method to analyze the abundance of galaxy clusters identified by the South Pole Telescope (SPT) with a simultaneous mass calibration using weak gravitational lensing data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). We discuss and validate the modeling choices with a particular focus on a robust, weak-lensing-based mass calibration using DES data. For the DES Year 3 data, we report a systematic uncertainty in weak-lensing mass calibration that increases from 1% at z = 0.25 to 10% at z = 0.95 , to which we add 2% in quadrature to account for uncertainties in the impact of baryonic effects. We implement an analysis pipeline that joins the cluster abundance likelihood with a multiobservable likelihood for the Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect, optical richness, and weak-lensing measurements for each individual cluster. We validate that our analysis pipeline can recover unbiased cosmological constraints by analyzing mocks that closely resemble the cluster sample extracted from the SPT-SZ, SPTpol ECS, and SPTpol 500d surveys and the DES Year 3 and HST-39 weak-lensing datasets. This work represents a crucial prerequisite for the subsequent cosmological analysis of the real dataset.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Primordial black hole mass functions as a probe of cosmic origin

Here, we discuss a novel window to probe the origin of our universe via the mass functions of primordial black holes (PBHs). The mass functions of PBHs are simply estimated using the conventional Press-Schechter formalism for two paradigms of cosmic origin, including inflationary ΛCDM and bounce cosmology. The standard inflationary ΛCDM model cannot generate an appreciable number of massive PBHs; however, non-trivial inflation models with blue-tilted power spectra at small scales and matter bounce cosmology provide formation mechanisms for heavy PBHs, which in turn, may seed the observed supermassive black holes (SMBHs). By fitting the SMBH mass functions at high redshift (z ~ 6) derived from Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and Canada-France High-z Quasar Survey (CFHQS) quasars, for two paradigms of cosmic origin, we derive constraints on the PBH density fraction $f$ PBH at z ~ 6 and the characteristic mass M $\ast$ , with the prior assumption that all SMBHs stem from PBHs. We demonstrate that this newly proposed procedure, relying on astronomical measurements that utilize deep-field surveys of SMBHs at high redshift, can be used to constrain models of cosmic origin. Additionally, although not the main focus of this paper, we evolve the mass function from z ~ 6 to z ~ 0 through an assumption of 3 × 10 8 -year Eddington’s accretion, and give a rough estimation of $f$ PBH at z ~ 0.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1975

Landing pressure loads of the 140A/B space shuttle orbiter (model 43-0) determined in the Rockwell International low speed wind tunnel (OA69), volume 1

Wind tunnel tests of a 0.0405 scale model of the -1404A/B configuration of the Space Shuttle Vehicle Orbiter are presented. Pressure loads data were obtained from the orbiter in the landing configuration in the presence of the ground for structural strength analysis. This was accomplished by locating as many as 30 static pressure bugs at various locations on external model surfaces as each configuration was tested. A complete pressure loads survey was generated for each configuration by combining data from all bug locations, and these loads are described for the fuselage, wing, vertical tail, and landing gear doors. Aerodynamic force data was measured by a six component internal strain gage balance. This data was recorded to correct model angles of attack and sideslip for sting and balance deflections and to determine the aerodynamic effects of landing gear extension. All testing was conducted at a Mach number of 0.165 and a Reynolds number of 1.2 million per foot. Photographs of test configurations are shown.

Soard, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Radio observations of peculiar emission-line Algol binary stars

Twelve peculiar emission-line Algol (PELA) binaries were observed at cm wavelengths. Six of these objects, WW And (tentative), KX And, AM Aur, V644 Mon, DN Ori, and AY Per were detected at the 100 to 400 micro-Jy level, corresponding to luminosity densities of order 10 exp 17 erg/s/Hz. These luminosity densities, combined with nearly flat cm spectra and high brightness temperatures, are consistent with the nonthermal gyrosynchrotron radiation model proposed as the result of observations from the previous PELA survey. Also, the star V367 Cyg was reobserved at thirteen different orbital phases; no variability was found within the errors. V367 Cyg's lack of variability and well-determined average spectral index, however, imply the possibility of a different emission mechanism, thermal bremsstrahlung, although the nonthermal model cannot be entirely ruled out. The characteristic brightness temperature of thermal bremsstrahlung is only about 10,000 K, which means that the radius of the emission region would have to be much larger than previously assumed, about 10 AU. Suggestions for further observations of all previously observed PELAS are presented in order to determine the correct emission mechanism.

Elias, Nicholas M., II↗

DOE OSTI2023

A unified catalogue-level reanalysis of stage-III cosmic shear surveys

ABSTRACT Cosmological parameter constraints from recent galaxy imaging surveys are reaching percent-level accuracy on the effective amplitude of the lensing signal, S8. The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will produce subpercent level measurements of cosmological parameters, providing a milestone test of the ΛCDM model. To supply guidance to the upcoming LSST analysis, it is important to understand thoroughly the results from different recent galaxy imaging surveys and assess their consistencies. In this work, we perform a unified catalogue-level reanalysis of three cosmic shear data sets: the first year data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-Y1), the 1000 deg2 data set from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000), and the first year data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-Y1). We utilize a pipeline developed and rigorously tested by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration to perform the reanalysis and assess the robustness of the results to analysis choices. We find the S8 constraint to be robust to two different small-scale modelling approaches, and varying choices of cosmological priors. Our unified analysis allows the consistency of the surveys to be rigorously tested, and we find the three surveys to be statistically consistent. Due to the partially overlapping footprint, we model the cross-covariance between KiDS-1000 and HSC-Y1 approximately when combining all three data sets, resulting in a 1.6–1.9 per cent constraint on S8 given different assumptions on the cross-covariance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Distributed Wind Representation in Modeling and Simulation Tools: An Assessment of Existing Tools

PNNL evaluated the inclusion of wind in distributed energy resource modeling and simulation tools. Tools were assessed based on a survey of publicly available and readily accessible information. While the authors have made a good faith effort to understand these tools, PNNL does not know the intentions of the developers and acknowledges that some tool capabilities or features may not have been accurately captured in this assessment. This evaluation informs an ongoing effort by PNNL to modernize existing tools both directly by working with developers of some tools and indirectly by providing best practices on how different types of tools could enhance certain modeling features to improve distributed wind’s representation and valuation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Aerial Gamma-Ray Backgrounds Using Non-negative Matrix Factorization

Airborne gamma-ray surveys are useful for many applications, ranging from geology and mining to public health and nuclear security. In all these contexts, the ability to decompose a measured spectrum into a linear combination of background source terms can provide useful insights into the data and lead to improvements in the techniques that use spectral energy windows. Multiple methods for the linear decomposition of spectra exist but are subject to various drawbacks, such as allowing negative photon fluxes or requiring detailed Monte Carlo modeling. In this work, we propose using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) as a data-driven approach to spectral decomposition. Using aerial surveys that include flights over water, we demonstrate that the mathematical approach of NMF finds physically relevant structure in the aerial gamma-ray background, namely, that measured spectra can be expressed as the sum of nearby terrestrial emission, distant terrestrial emission, and radon and cosmic emission. Furthermore, these NMF background components are compared with the background components obtained by noise-adjusted singular value decomposition (NASVD), which contain negative photon fluxes and, thus, do not represent the emission spectra in as straightforward a way. Finally, we comment on the potential areas of research that are enabled by NMF decompositions, such as new approaches to spectral anomaly detection and data fusion.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2016

Global Carbon Budget 2016

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1(sigma), reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, ELUC 1.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr,GATM 4.5+/-0.1 GtC/yr, SOCEAN 2.6+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND 3.1+/-0.9 GtC/yr. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9+/-0.5 GtC/yr, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8/yr that took place during 2006-2015.Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, GATM was 6.3+/-0.2 GtC/yr, SOCEAN was 3.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND was 1.9+/-0.9 GtC/yr. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4+/-0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2% (range of -1.0 to +1.8% ) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565+/-55 GtC (2075+/-205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.

Quéré, Corinne Le↗

DOE OSTI2024

Robust inference of the Galactic Centre gamma-ray excess spatial properties

ABSTRACT The gamma-ray Fermi-LAT Galactic Centre excess (GCE) has puzzled scientists for over 15 yr. Despite ongoing debates about its properties, and especially its spatial distribution, its nature remains elusive. We scrutinize how the estimated spatial morphology of this excess depends on models for the Galactic diffuse emission, focusing particularly on the extent to which the Galactic plane and point sources are masked. Our main aim is to compare a spherically symmetric morphology – potentially arising from the annihilation of dark matter (DM) particles – with a boxy morphology – expected if faint unresolved sources in the Galactic bulge dominate the excess emission. Recent claims favouring a DM-motivated template for the GCE are shown to rely on a specific Galactic bulge template, which performs worse than other templates for the Galactic bulge. We find that a non-parametric model of the Galactic bulge derived from the VISTA Variables in the Via Lactea survey results in a significantly better fit for the GCE than DM-motivated templates. This result is independent of whether a galprop-based model or a more non-parametric ring-based model is used to describe the diffuse Galactic emission. This conclusion remains true even when additional freedom is added in the background models, allowing for non-parametric modulation of the model components and substantially improving the fit quality. When adopted, optimized background models provide robust results in terms of preference for a boxy bulge morphology for the GCE, regardless of the mask applied to the Galactic plane.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Open Power System Datasets and Open Simulation Engines: A Survey Toward Machine Learning Applications

A major factor behind the success of machine learning (ML) models in multiple domains is the availability and accessibility of large, labeled, and well-organized datasets for training and benchmarking. In comparison, power grid datasets face three major challenges: (i) real-world data is often restricted by regulatory constraints, privacy reasons, or security concerns, making it difficult to obtain and work with; (ii) synthetic datasets, which are created to address these limitations, often have incomplete information and are released using specialized tools, making them inaccessible to the broader community; and, (iii) input-output datasets are difficult to generate through simulation for non-experts because open-source simulators are not known outside the power system community. This survey addresses these challenges by serving as an entry point to publicly available datasets and simulators for researchers venturing in this area. We review the current landscape of open-source power network data, machine models, consumer demand profiles, renewable generation data, and inverter models. We also examine open-source power system simulators, which are crucial for generating high-quality, high-fidelity power grid datasets. We aim to provide a foundation for overcoming data scarcity and advance towards a structured web of datasets and simulators to support the development of ML for power systems.

42 ENGINEERING↗