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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2003

Comparison of mode estimation methods and application in molecular clock analysis

BACKGROUND: Distributions of time estimates in molecular clock studies are sometimes skewed or contain outliers. In those cases, the mode is a better estimator of the overall time of divergence than the mean or median. However, different methods are available for estimating the mode. We compared these methods in simulations to determine their strengths and weaknesses and further assessed their performance when applied to real data sets from a molecular clock study. RESULTS: We found that the half-range mode and robust parametric mode methods have a lower bias than other mode methods under a diversity of conditions. However, the half-range mode suffers from a relatively high variance and the robust parametric mode is more susceptible to bias by outliers. We determined that bootstrapping reduces the variance of both mode estimators. Application of the different methods to real data sets yielded results that were concordant with the simulations. CONCLUSION: Because the half-range mode is a simple and fast method, and produced less bias overall in our simulations, we recommend the bootstrapped version of it as a general-purpose mode estimator and suggest a bootstrap method for obtaining the standard error and 95% confidence interval of the mode.

Evolution, Molecular↗
DOE OSTI2023

DESI mock challenge: Halo and galaxy catalogues with the bias assignment method

We present a novel approach to the construction of mock galaxy catalogues for large-scale structure analysis based on the distribution of dark matter halos obtained with effective bias models at the field level. We aim to produce mock galaxy catalogues capable of generating accurate covariance matrices for a number of cosmological probes that are expected to be measured in current and forthcoming galaxy redshift surveys (e.g. two- and three-point statistics). The construction of the catalogues shown in this paper is part of a mock-comparison project within the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) collaboration. We use the bias assignment method ( BAM ) to model the statistics of halo distribution through a learning algorithm using a few detailed N-body simulations, and approximated gravity solvers based on Lagrangian perturbation theory. We introduce cosmic-web-dependent corrections to modelling redshift-space distortions at the N-body level – both in the halo and galaxy distributions –, as well as a multi-scale approach for accurate assignment of halo properties. Using specific models of halo occupation distributions to populate halos, we generate galaxy mocks with the expected number density and central-satellite fraction of emission-line galaxies, which are a key target of the DESI experiment. BAM generates mock catalogues with per cent accuracy in a number of summary statistics, such as the abundance, the two- and three-point statistics of halo distributions, both in real and redshift space. In particular, the mock galaxy catalogues display ~3%-10% accuracy in the multipoles of the power spectrum up to scales of k ~ 0.4 h -1 Mpc. We show that covariance matrices of two- and three-point statistics obtained with BAM display a similar structure to the reference simulation. BAM offers an efficient way to produce mock halo catalogues with accurate two- and three-point statistics and is able to generate a variety of multi-tracer catalogues with precise covariance matrices of several cosmological probes. We discuss future developments of the algorithm towards mock production in DESI and other galaxy-redshift surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Large eddy simulation of homogeneous isotropic turbulence

This paper presents results from a comprehensive investigation of large-eddy simulations of homogeneous isotropic turbulence. Calculations have been made using grid meshes, a number of flowfield filters, and two simple subgrid scale turbulence models. Particular attention has been paid to the degree of isotropy and the ability of the approach to predict higher-order statistical quantities (skewness and flatness). Directions for needed improvement in the simulation approach are indicated, and a plea is made to experimenters to process their data in a way which will facilitate comparison with large eddy simulations.

Ferziger, J. H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1981

Simulation of atmospheric turbulent gusts and gust gradients

An improved three-dimensional, nonrecursive model for atmospheric turbulence has been developed which provides for simulation of both instantaneous gusts and gust gradients along the flight path of the Space Shuttle. The one-dimensional gust and gust gradient spectral models, which form the basis for the simulation scheme, are developed from three-dimensional, von Karman spectra, integrated over finite limits based on the characteristic dimensions (length, width, and thickness) of the flight vehicle. By means of the simulation process nondimensional time series for both gusts and gust gradients have been generated and stored on a series of magnetic tapes for four altitude bands ranging from 0 to 10,000 meters. These Shuttle Simulated Turbulence Tapes (SSTT) have been validated by means of spectral and statistical analyses with satisfactory results. The dimensionless form of the time series coupled with the use of a von Karman spectral model (as opposed to a Dryden model) distinguish the SSTT from earlier turbulence simulation concepts.

Tatom, F. B.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Decoding defect statistics from diffractograms via machine learning

Abstract Diffraction techniques can powerfully and nondestructively probe materials while maintaining high resolution in both space and time. Unfortunately, these characterizations have been limited and sometimes even erroneous due to the difficulty of decoding the desired material information from features of the diffractograms. Currently, these features are identified non-comprehensively via human intuition, so the resulting models can only predict a subset of the available structural information. In the present work we show (i) how to compute machine-identified features that fully summarize a diffractogram and (ii) how to employ machine learning to reliably connect these features to an expanded set of structural statistics. To exemplify this framework, we assessed virtual electron diffractograms generated from atomistic simulations of irradiated copper. When based on machine-identified features rather than human-identified features, our machine-learning model not only predicted one-point statistics (i.e. density) but also a two-point statistic (i.e. spatial distribution) of the defect population. Hence, this work demonstrates that machine-learning models that input machine-identified features significantly advance the state of the art for accurately and robustly decoding diffractograms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Statistics-Based Threshold for the RMS-Energy Oscillation Detector

System operators and reliability coordinators currently rely on extensive baselining studies to set thresholds for their oscillation detectors. The resulting thresholds are based largely on engineering judgment and may vary significantly between organizations. In this paper, statistical distribution theory is used to derive a detection threshold for the widely deployed root-mean-square (RMS)-energy detector. This expression provides a theoretical basis for the detector's configuration, simplifies the process of selecting the threshold, and enables improved consistency among organizations that need to coordinate during system-wide events. Three methods for calculating the threshold using synchrophasor measurements are also proposed. These methods ensure that the threshold can be calculated reliably for various applications. Tests with simulated and field-measured data demonstrate that the statistics-based threshold provides consistent detection of grid disturbances while maintaining a low probability of false alarm.

Follum, James D.↗
NASA NTRS2008

The Integrated Medical Model: Statistical Forecasting of Risks to Crew Health and Mission Success

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) helps capture and use organizational knowledge across the space medicine, training, operations, engineering, and research domains. The IMM uses this domain knowledge in the context of a mission and crew profile to forecast crew health and mission success risks. The IMM is most helpful in comparing the risk of two or more mission profiles, not as a tool for predicting absolute risk. The process of building the IMM adheres to Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) techniques described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 8705.5, and uses current evidence-based information to establish a defensible position for making decisions that help ensure crew health and mission success. The IMM quantitatively describes the following input parameters: 1) medical conditions and likelihood, 2) mission duration, 3) vehicle environment, 4) crew attributes (e.g. age, sex), 5) crew activities (e.g. EVA's, Lunar excursions), 6) diagnosis and treatment protocols (e.g. medical equipment, consumables pharmaceuticals), and 7) Crew Medical Officer (CMO) training effectiveness. It is worth reiterating that the IMM uses the data sets above as inputs. Many other risk management efforts stop at determining only likelihood. The IMM is unique in that it models not only likelihood, but risk mitigations, as well as subsequent clinical outcomes based on those mitigations. Once the mathematical relationships among the above parameters are established, the IMM uses a Monte Carlo simulation technique (a random sampling of the inputs as described by their statistical distribution) to determine the probable outcomes. Because the IMM is a stochastic model (i.e. the input parameters are represented by various statistical distributions depending on the data type), when the mission is simulated 10-50,000 times with a given set of medical capabilities (risk mitigations), a prediction of the most probable outcomes can be generated. For each mission, the IMM tracks which conditions occurred and decrements the pharmaceuticals and supplies required to diagnose and treat these medical conditions. If supplies are depleted, then the medical condition goes untreated, and crew and mission risk increase. The IMM currently models approximately 30 medical conditions. By the end of FY2008, the IMM will be modeling over 100 medical conditions, approximately 60 of which have been recorded to have occurred during short and long space missions.

Fitts, M. A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of a Time-Height Profile Assimilation Technique for Large-Eddy Simulation

Mesoscale-to-microscale coupling (MMC) aims to address the limited scope of traditional large-eddy simulations by driving the microscale flow with information concerning large-scale weather patterns provided by mesoscale models. We present a new offline MMC technique for horizontally homogeneous microscale flow conditions, in which internal forcing terms are computed based on mesoscale time–height profiles of mean-flow quantities. The advantage of such an approach is that it can be used to drive a microscale simulation with either mesoscale or observational data, and that it does not rely on specific terms in the mesoscale budget equations, which are typically not part of the default output of a mesoscale solver. The performance of the proposed profile assimilation technique is assessed based on the simulation of a typical diurnal cycle over the Scaled Wind Farm Technology site in west Texas. Results indicate that simple data assimilation techniques lead to unphysically high levels of shear and turbulence caused by the algorithm’s inability to cope with inaccuracies in the mesoscale time–height profiles. Modifying the algorithm to account for vertical coherence in the mesoscale source terms gives the microscale solver a greater ability to correct the provided mesoscale time–height profiles, leading to improved predictions of shear and turbulence statistics. The resulting turbulence statistics are in good agreement with meteorological tower observations and simulation results obtained with state-of-the-art coupling techniques using mesoscale budget components.

data assimilation↗
NASA NTRS1980

Numerical simulation of plasma insulator interactions in space. Part 2: Dielectric effects

Any process which may be modeled statistically for a simple plasma particle may be modeled by the particle in cell technique. The success of the calculation is then dependent on having a large enough number of particles that the statistical treatment is meaningful. Thus it is possible to include the effects of secondary emission, backscattering, charge sticking and possibly dielectric breakdown, photoemission, and spallation. The first plasma dielectric interaction included in the computer code for simulating plasma insulator interactions is secondary electron emission. A calculated current density vs. voltage curve is presented and compared to an experimental curve.

Chaky, R. C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of Additively Manufactured TPS Proposed Flight Test and Earth Re-Entry Capsule Design

A flight mechanics overview is presented of an Earth flight test designed to investigate a novel, 3D printed thermal protection system (TPS) that is currently in development at NASA as part of the Additive Manufacturing of Thermal Protection Systems project. The project is pioneering a method to print a thermal protection system onto an entry vehicle forebody one layer at a time. This method reduces labor and complexity as compared to traditional manufacturing methods while increasing mission-dependent customization of through-depth materials properties. The flight test has three objectives. First, subject the forebody stagnation point of a capsule equipped with additively manufactured TPS (AMTPS) material to peak heat fluxes in excess of 100 $W/cm^2$. Second, capture in-flight data to enable flight reconstruction and AMTPS material thermal response model improvement. Third, recover the capsule with data storage and forebody AMTPS intact to enable post-flight inspection and analysis of AMTPS performance. The flight test trajectory is designed to achieve a peak stagnation point, cold-wall, entry heat flux of 135~$W/cm^2$. Flight mechanics simulations are performed using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) and Monte-Carlo analysis yields statistical percentiles on vehicle performance at key points along the trajectory. Based on the flight mechanics analysis presented in this paper, a prototype capsule was designed, partially fabricated, and underwent preliminary component stress testing in preparation for fabrication of the flight unit capsule. The capsule outer mold line is a modified version of the heritage Mars Microprobe geometry. The capsule has a 0.356~m diameter, a 30~kg mass, and a hypersonic ballistic coefficient of 300~$kg/m^2$. Sensor selection is guided by flight dynamics simulations with the goal of resolving the re-entry heating pulse. On-board instrumentation include forebody and aftbody pressure sensors and thermocouples, a 9-axis IMU, a GPS receiver, and an Iridium satellite modem, all of which collect and store data throughout flight via on-board avionics systems. A two-stage parachute system is designed to decelerate the capsule to touchdown velocities that will not result in significant fracture or deformation of the charred AMTPS material at ground impact.

Flight Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Morphological analysis of the polarized synchrotron emission with WMAP and Planck

The bright polarized synchrotron emission, away from the Galactic plane, originates mostly from filamentary structures. We implement a filament finder algorithm which allows the detection of bright elongated structures in polarized intensity maps. We analyse the sky at 23 and 30 GHz as observed respectively by WMAP and Planck. We identify 19 filaments, 13 of which have been previously observed. For each filament, we study the polarization fraction, finding values typically larger than for the areas outside the filaments, excluding the Galactic plane, and a fraction of about 30% is reached in two filaments. We study the polarization spectral indices of the filaments, and find a spectral index consistent with the values found in previous analysis (about -3.1) for more diffuse regions. Decomposing the polarization signals into the E and B families, we find that most of the filaments are detected in P E , but not in P B . We then focus on understanding the statistical properties of the diffuse regions of the synchrotron emission at 23 GHz. Using Minkowski functionals and tensors, we analyse the non-Gaussianity and statistical isotropy of the polarized intensity maps. For a sky coverage corresponding to 80% of the fainter emission, and on scales smaller than 6 degrees (ℓ > 30), the deviations from Gaussianity and isotropy are significantly higher than 3σ. The level of deviation decreases for smaller scales, however, it remains significantly high for the lowest analised scale (~ 1.5°). When 60% sky coverage is analysed, we find that the deviations never exceed 3σ. Finally, we present a simple data-driven model to generate non-Gaussian and anisotropic simulations of the synchrotron polarized emission. The simulations are fitted in order to match the spectral and statistical properties of the faintest 80% sky coverage of the data maps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Development of a Computational Chemical Vapor Deposition Model: Applications to Indium Nitride and Dicyanovinylaniline

A computational chemical vapor deposition (CVD) model is presented, that couples chemical reaction mechanisms with fluid dynamic simulations for vapor deposition experiments. The chemical properties of the systems under investigation are evaluated using quantum, molecular and statistical mechanics models. The fluid dynamic computations are performed using the CFD-ACE program, which can simulate multispecies transport, heat and mass transfer, gas phase chemistry, chemistry of adsorbed species, pulsed reactant flow and variable gravity conditions. Two experimental setups are being studied, in order to fabricate films of: (a) indium nitride (InN) from the gas or surface phase reaction of trimethylindium and ammonia; and (b) 4-(1,1)dicyanovinyl-dimethylaminoaniline (DCVA) by vapor deposition. Modeling of these setups requires knowledge of three groups of properties: thermodynamic properties (heat capacity), transport properties (diffusion, viscosity, and thermal conductivity), and kinetic properties (rate constants for all possible elementary chemical reactions). These properties are evaluated using computational methods whenever experimental data is not available for the species or for the elementary reactions. The chemical vapor deposition model is applied to InN and DCVA. Several possible InN mechanisms are proposed and analyzed. The CVD model simulations of InN show that the deposition rate of InN is more efficient when pulsing chemistry is used under conditions of high pressure and microgravity. An analysis of the chemical properties of DCVA show that DCVA dimers may form under certain conditions of physical vapor transport. CVD simulations of the DCVA system suggest that deposition of the DCVA dimer may play a small role in the film and crystal growth processes.

Cardelino, Carlos↗
DOE OSTI2024

Qualitative Conditions for Reasonable Estimates of Kerma Using Total and Kerma Cross Section Attenuation of Photons

Performing a full adjoint simulation in the Integrated Tiger Series (ITS) can be time consuming to obtain statistically significant results. The ray-trace capability in ITS allows for rapid scoping calculations of the uncollided kerma from photon sources without needing to run a full adjoint simulation. However, the uncollided estimate will always underestimate the full-physics kerma since it neglects scattered radiation, and under certain conditions, the result from the capability may not provide a sufficiently accurate estimate of the full-physics kerma. To exemplify the conditions in which the capability provides reasonable estimates, two problem geometries with different materials are simulated using the full adjoint capability as well as the ray-trace capability with a total cross section treatment and a new kerma-attenuation cross-section treatment. The results are then compared to show under which conditions the estimates are accurate. Reasonable estimates are provided from the ray-trace feature when there is minimal scattering into a region of interest occurring, such as with low-Z material and when the photons travel through small amounts of material.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1992

The compositional structure and the effects of exothermicity in an unpremixed planar jet flame

Results are presented of direct numerical simulations (DNS) of a randomly perturbed compressible, spatially developing planar jet under the influence of a finite rate Arrhenius chemical reaction of the type F + O yields Product + Heat. The objectives of the simulations are to assess the compositional structure of the flame and to determine the influence of reaction exothermicity by means of statistical sampling of the data generated by DNS. It is shown that even with this idealized kinetics model, the simulated results exhibit features in accordance with experimental data. These results indicate that the Damkoehler number is an important parameter in determining the statistical composition of the reacting field, and that the results are insensitive to the mechanism by which this parameter is varied. It is demonstrated that as the intensity of mixing is increased and the effect of finite rate chemistry is more pronounced, the magnitudes of the ensemble mean and rms of the product mass fraction decrease, and those of the reactants mass fraction increase. Also, at higher mixing rates the joint probability density functions of the reactants' mass fractions shift towards higher values within the composition domain indicating a lower reactedness. These trends are consistent with those observed experimentally and are very useful in portraying the statistical structure of non-equilibrium diffusion flames. The DNS generated data are also utilized to examine the applicability of the 'laminar diffusion flamelet model' in predicting the rate of the reactant conversion with finite rate chemistry. This examination indicates that the bounds of the product formation scale reasonably well with those obtained by the flamelet model. However, in the range of the relatively low values of the Damkoehler numbers considered, the scatter of the results is substantially more than that to be completely determined by the closure.

Steinberger, C. J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of solar geoengineering on temperatures over the Indonesian Maritime Continent

Climate change has been projected to increase the intensity and magnitude of extreme temperature in Indonesia. Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a strategy to temporarily combat global warming, buying time for negative emissions. Though the global impacts of SRM have been extensively studied in recent years, regional impacts, especially in the tropics, have received much less attention. This paper investigates the potential stratospheric sulfate aerosol geoengineering to modify mean and extreme temperature, as well as the relative humidity and wet bulb temperature (WBT) change over Indonesian Maritime Continent (IMC) based on simulations from three different earth system models. We applied statistical downscaling and corrected the bias of model output to reproduce historical temperatures and relative humidity over IMC. We compared SRM as specified by the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G4 experiment – 5 Tg of SO 2 into the lower stratosphere between 2020 and 2069 – concurrent with the RCP4.5 emissions scenario. SRM is able to significantly reduce the temperature means and extremes, and although differences in magnitude of response and spatial pattern occur, there is a generally consistent response. Additionally, the spatial response of changes forced by RCP4.5 scenario and SRM impact is notably heterogeneous in the archipelago, highlighting uncertainties that would be critical in assessing socio-economic consequences of both doing, and not doing SRM. In general, SRM has bigger impacts in reducing temperatures over land than oceans, and the southern monsoon region shows more variability. SRM is also effective at reducing the likelihood of WBT > 27OC events compared to RCP4.5 after some years of SRM deployment as well as during the post-termination period of SRM. Regional downscaling may be an effective tool in obtaining policy-relevant information about local effects of different future scenarios involving SRM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

From atomistic models to machine learning: Predictive design of nanocarbons under extreme conditions

The formation of technologically valuable nanocarbon structures under extreme conditions, such as those produced during high-explosive detonations, remains poorly understood but holds significant potential for the development of controlled synthesis pathways. While detonation shockwaves provide the high-pressure, high-temperature environment required for nanodiamond formation, subsequent cooling and decompression dictate whether the diamond phase is preserved or transformed into other nanocarbon structures. Here, in this study, we employ GPU-accelerated reactive molecular dynamics (ReaxFF) simulations to investigate the graphitization and structural remodeling of detonation nanodiamond under nonlinear quench and pressure-release trajectories. We further investigate how the initial nanodiamond morphology; cuboctahedral, octahedral, or hexagonal prism influences the resulting transformation products. Evolution of nanostructure, allotrope (via simulated x-ray diffraction), carbon hybridization, and ring statistics are tracked during a two-stage quench from 5000 K to 60 GPa. Rapid cooling combined with slow decompression optimizes cubic diamond retention, whereas slow cooling with rapid pressure release promotes surface-to-core graphitization, producing concentric sp 2 -hybridized layers and hollowed inner shells. Octahedral nanodiamonds evolve into carbon nano-onions, initially forming bucky diamonds that progressively transform into fully sp 2 -hybridized structures, while hexagonal prisms preferentially form parallel-stacked graphite layers resembling carbon dots. Transient hexagonal diamond (lonsdaleite) emerges as an interfacial phase, suggesting potential reversibility in the shock-induced graphite-to-diamond transformation pathway transformation route. To extend predictive capabilities, we trained machine learning (ML) regressors on over 10 5 node-hours of molecular dynamics (MD) trajectories. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) model reliably predicts the number of graphitized layers from temperature–pressure trajectories with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) exceeding 0.90. This high predictive fidelity enables efficient, high-throughput mapping of the synthesis parameter space for optimized graphitization outcomes. Collectively, morphological control combined with optimized quench–decompression conditions promote the selective synthesis of nanocarbon allotropes. This work establishes a data-driven framework for the rational, a priori design of carbon nanomaterials for applications in energy storage, sensing, and biomedicine.

Detonation nanodiamond remodeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

AIS-based characterization of navigation conflicts along the US Atlantic Coast prior to development of wind energy

This study characterizes navigation conflicts in a region with a large traffic volume along the US Atlantic Coast, utilizing Automated Identification System (AIS) data for 2010. The region includes areas proposed for wind energy development. The characterization could be useful in evaluating the effect of offshore wind areas on navigation conflicts. The study processes the AIS data to provide pairwise comparisons of vessel interactions (encounters and near-misses) as they occurred. Using the vessel encounter data, analyses are made using a ‘blind’ vessel assumption to evaluate the potential for both near-misses and collisions. Then statistical analyses are made to estimate the point values and uncertainty for each type of encounter (crossing, head-on, overtaking). Examination of the frequency/number of collisions from actual observations is made. The examination of actual near-misses, potential near-misses, and potential collisions provides comparable results in the number of near-misses and collisions. The potential near-miss analyses include an examination of the timing of responses made by vessels to prevent near-misses. This informed the statistical analysis but may also have utility in the simulation of navigation conflicts.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗