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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Evaluation of the Global Multi-Resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010) Using ICESat Geodetic Control

Supported by NASA's Earth Surface and Interior (ESI) Program, we are producing a global set of Ground Control Points (GCPs) derived from the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) altimetry data. From February of 2003, to October of 2009, ICESat obtained nearly global measurements of land topography (+/- 86deg latitudes) with unprecedented accuracy, sampling the Earth's surface at discrete approx.50 m diameter laser footprints spaced 170 m along the altimetry profiles. We apply stringent editing to select the highest quality elevations, and use these GCPs to characterize and quantify spatially varying elevation biases in Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). In this paper, we present an evaluation of the soon to be released Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010). Elevation biases and error statistics have been analyzed as a function of land cover and relief. The GMTED2010 products are a large improvement over previous sources of elevation data at comparable resolutions. RMSEs for all products and terrain conditions are below 7 m and typically are about 4 m. The GMTED2010 products are biased upward with respect to the ICESat GCPs on average by approximately 3 m.

Carabajal, Claudia C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Air Quality Over the Canadian Oil Sands: A First Assessment Using Satellite Observations

Results from the first assessment of air quality over the Canadian oil sands -- one ofthe largest industrial undertakings in human history -- using satellite remote sensing observations of two pollutants, nitrogen dioxide (N0O) and sulfur dioxide (SO2), are presented. High-resolution maps were created that revealed distinct enhancements in both species over an area (roughly 30 km x 50 km) of intensive surface mining at scales of a few kilometers. The magnitude of these enhancements, quantified in terms of total mass, are comparable to the largest seen in Canada from individual sources. The rate of increase in NO2 between 2005 and 2010 was assessed at 10.4 +/- 3.5%/year and resulted from increases both in local values as well as the spatial extent of the enhancement. This is broadly consistent with both surface-measurement trends and increases in annual bitumen production. An increase in SO2 was also found, but given larger uncertainties, it is not statistically significant.

McLinden, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Statistical Perspectives on Stratospheric Transport

Long-lived tropospheric source gases, such as nitrous oxide, enter the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause, are transported throughout the stratosphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and are photochemically destroyed in the upper stratosphere. These chemical constituents, or "tracers" can be used to track mixing and transport by the stratospheric winds. Much of our understanding about the stratospheric circulation is based on large scale gradients and other spatial features in tracer fields constructed from satellite measurements. The point of view presented in this paper is different, but complementary, in that transport is described in terms of tracer probability distribution functions (PDFs). The PDF is computed from the measurements, and is proportional to the area occupied by tracer values in a given range. The flavor of this paper is tutorial, and the ideas are illustrated with several examples of transport-related phenomena, annotated with remarks that summarize the main point or suggest new directions. One example shows how the multimodal shape of the PDF gives information about the different branches of the circulation. Another example shows how the statistics of fluctuations from the most probable tracer value give insight into mixing between different regions of the atmosphere. Also included is an analysis of the time-dependence of the PDF during the onset and decline of the winter circulation, and a study of how "bursts" in the circulation are reflected in transient periods of rapid evolution of the PDF. The dependence of the statistics on location and time are also shown to be important for practical problems related to statistical robustness and satellite sampling. The examples illustrate how physically-based statistical analysis can shed some light on aspects of stratospheric transport that may not be obvious or quantifiable with other types of analyses. An important motivation for the work presented here is the need for synthesis of the large and growing database of observations of the atmosphere and the vast quantities of output generated by atmospheric models.

Sparling, L. C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Excess deaths reveal the true spatial, temporal and demographic impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Ecuador

Accepted Background In early 2020, Ecuador reported one of the highest surges of per capita deaths across the globe. Methods We collected a comprehensive dataset containing individual death records between 2015 and 2020, from the Ecuadorian National Institute of Statistics and Census and the Ecuadorian Ministry of Government. We computed the number of excess deaths across time, geographical locations and demographic groups using Poisson regression methods. Results Between 1 January and 23 September 2020, the number of excess deaths in Ecuador was 36 402 [95% confidence interval (CI): 35 762–36 827] or 208 per 100 000 people, which is 171% of the expected deaths in that period in a typical year. Only 20% of the excess deaths are attributable to confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Strikingly, in provinces that were most affected by COVID-19 such as Guayas and Santa Elena, the all-cause deaths are more than double the expected number of deaths that would have occurred in a normal year. The extent of excess deaths in men is higher than in women, and the number of excess deaths increases with age. Indigenous populations had the highest level of excess deaths among all ethnic groups. Conclusions Overall, the exceptionally high level of excess deaths in Ecuador highlights the enormous burden and heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 on mortality, especially in older age groups and Indigenous populations in Ecuador, which was not fully revealed by COVID-19 death counts. Together with the limited testing in Ecuador, our results suggest that the majority of the excess deaths were likely to be undocumented COVID-19 deaths.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

Statistical analysis of atmospheric turbulence about a simulated block building

An array of towers instrumented to measure the three components of wind speed was used to study atmospheric flow about a simulated block building. Two-point spacetime correlations of the longitudinal velocity component were computed along with two-point spatial correlations. These correlations are in good agreement with fundamental concepts of fluid mechanics. The two-point spatial correlations computed directly were compared with correlations predicted by Taylor's hypothesis and excellent agreement was obtained at the higher levels which were out of the building influence. The correlations fall off significantly in the building wake but recover beyond the wake to essentially the same values in the undisturbed, higher regions.

Steely, S. L., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Photon statistics of a two-mode squeezed vacuum

We investigate the general case of the photon distribution of a two-mode squeezed vacuum and show that the distribution of photons among the two modes depends on four parameters: two squeezing parameters, the relative phase between the two oscillators and their spatial orientation. The distribution of the total number of photons depends only on the two squeezing parameters. We derive analytical expressions and present pictures for both distributions.

Schrade, Guenter↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reconstructing neutrinoless double beta decay event kinematics in a xenon gas detector with vertex tagging

If neutrinoless double beta decay is discovered, the next natural step would be understanding the lepton number violating physics responsible for it. Several alternatives exist beyond the exchange of light neutrinos. Some of these mechanisms can be distinguished by measuring phase-space observables, namely the opening angle cos θ among the two decay electrons, and the electron energy spectra, T 1 and T 2 . In this work, we study the statistical accuracy and precision in measuring these kinematic observables in a future xenon gas detector with the added capability to precisely locate the decay vertex. For realistic detector conditions (a gas pressure of 10 bar and spatial resolution of 4 mm), we find that the average $\overline{cos θ}$ and $\overline{T_1}$ values can be reconstructed with a precision of 0.19 and 110 keV, respectively, assuming that only 10 neutrinoless double beta decay events are detected.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

The imaginary part of the heavy-quark potential from real-time Yang-Mills dynamics

We extract the imaginary part of the heavy-quark potential using classical-statistical simulations of real-time Yang-Mills dynamics in classical thermal equilibrium. The r-dependence of the imaginary part of the potential is extracted by measuring the temporal decay of Wilson loops of spatial length r. We compare our results to continuum expressions obtained using hard thermal loop theory and to semi-analytic lattice perturbation theory calculations using the hard classical loop formalism. We find that, when plotted as a function of m D r, where m D is the hard classical loop Debye mass, the imaginary part of the heavy-quark potential shows little sensitivity to the lattice spacing at small m D r ≲ 1 and agrees well with the semi-analytic hard classical loop result. For large quark-antiquark separations, we quantify the magnitude of the non-perturbative long-range corrections to the imaginary part of the heavy-quark potential. We present our results for a wide range of temperatures, lattice spacings, and lattice volumes. This work sets the stage for extracting the imaginary part of the heavy-quark potential in an expanding non-equilibrium Yang Mills plasma.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Simons Observatory: Combining cross-spectral foreground cleaning with multitracer B -mode delensing for improved constraints on inflation

The Simons Observatory (SO), due to start full science operations in early 2025, aims to set tight constraints on inflationary physics by inferring the tensor-to-scalar ratio r from measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization B-modes. Its nominal design including three small-aperture telescopes (SATs) targets a precision σ⁡(r = 0) ≤ 0.003 without delensing. Achieving this goal and further reducing uncertainties requires a thorough understanding and mitigation of other large-scale B-mode sources such as Galactic foregrounds and weak gravitational lensing. We present an analysis pipeline aiming to estimate r by including delensing within a cross-spectral likelihood, and demonstrate it for the first time on SO-like simulations accounting for various levels of foreground complexity, inhomogeneous noise and partial sky coverage. As introduced in an earlier SO delensing paper, lensing B-modes are synthesized using internal CMB lensing reconstructions as well as Planck-like cosmic infrared background maps and LSST-like galaxy density maps. We then extend SO’s power-spectrum-based foreground-cleaning algorithm to include all auto- and cross-spectra between the lensing template and the SAT B-modes in the likelihood function. This allows us to constrain r and the parameters of our foreground model simultaneously. Within this framework, we demonstrate the equivalence of map-based and cross-spectral delensing and use it to motivate an optimized pixel-weighting scheme for power spectrum estimation. We start by validating our pipeline in the simplistic case of uniform foreground spectral energy distributions. In the absence of primordial B-modes, we find that the 1⁢σ statistical uncertainty on r, σ⁡(r), decreases by 37% as a result of delensing. Tensor modes at the level of r = 0.01 are successfully detected by our pipeline. Even when using more realistic foreground models including spatial variations in the dust and synchrotron spectral properties, we obtain unbiased estimates of r both with and without delensing by employing the moment-expansion method. In this case, uncertainties are increased due to the higher number of model parameters, and delensing-related improvements range between 27% and 31%. These results constitute the first realistic assessment of the delensing performance at SO’s nominal sensitivity level.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1973

Automated thematic mapping and change detection of ERTS-A images

The author has identified the following significant results. For the recognition of terrain types, spatial signatures are developed from the diffraction patterns of small areas of ERTS-1 images. This knowledge is exploited for the measurements of a small number of meaningful spatial features from the digital Fourier transforms of ERTS-1 image cells containing 32 x 32 picture elements. Using these spatial features and a heuristic algorithm, the terrain types in the vicinity of Phoenix, Arizona were recognized by the computer with a high accuracy. Then, the spatial features were combined with spectral features and using the maximum likelihood criterion the recognition accuracy of terrain types increased substantially. It was determined that the recognition accuracy with the maximum likelihood criterion depends on the statistics of the feature vectors. Nonlinear transformations of the feature vectors are required so that the terrain class statistics become approximately Gaussian. It was also determined that for a given geographic area the statistics of the classes remain invariable for a period of a month but vary substantially between seasons.

Gramenopoulos, N.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Steady induction effects in geomagnetism. Part 1B: Geomagnetic estimation of steady surficial core motions: A non-linear inverse problem

The problem of estimating a steady fluid velocity field near the top of Earth's core which induces the secular variation (SV) indicated by models of the observed geomagnetic field is examined in the source-free mantle/frozen-flux core (SFI/VFFC) approximation. This inverse problem is non-linear because solutions of the forward problem are deterministically chaotic. The SFM/FFC approximation is inexact, and neither the models nor the observations they represent are either complete or perfect. A method is developed for solving the non-linear inverse motional induction problem posed by the hypothesis of (piecewise, statistically) steady core surface flow and the supposition of a complete initial geomagnetic condition. The method features iterative solution of the weighted, linearized least-squares problem and admits optional biases favoring surficially geostrophic flow and/or spatially simple flow. Two types of weights are advanced radial field weights for fitting the evolution of the broad-scale portion of the radial field component near Earth's surface implied by the models, and generalized weights for fitting the evolution of the broad-scale portion of the scalar potential specified by the models.

Voorhies, Coerte V.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Historic View of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs)

We present a historic overview of CME observations, ending with concepts for future measurement capabilities. One of the first detections of what we now call a CME was provided by instrumentation on OSO-7 and reported by Tousey (1973); but the phrase "corona) mass ejection" was coined after the Skylab/ATM coronagraph detected dozens of the transients over its nine month observing run (e.g., Munro et al., 1979). Pre-discovery identification of likely CMEs were then reported in historic eclipse photographs and drawings (e.g., Eddy, 1974; Cliver, 1989). Multi-year observations followed with groundbased MLSO MK3/4 coronagraph (1980-present), and spacebased missions: Solwind (1979-1985), SMM (1980-1989), SOHO LASCO/EIT (1996-present), SMEI (2003-present), and STEREO SECCHI (2006-present). The Spartan 201 coronagraph flew in space multiple times. The influential Gosling (1993) "solar flare myth" manuscript identified CMEs as the cause of the most severe geomagnetic storms, thus cementing their importance in Sun-Earth connection studies. A new window into CMEs was opened with the launch of SOHO in 1995 when the UVCS spectrometer began returning plasma diagnostics of a significant number of events (e.g., Ciaravella et al., 2006). What about the future for CME research? Statistical properties of the UVCS CME observations are forthcoming; the STEREO mission should continue to return views of CMEs from unique vantage points; and the recent launch of SDO should provide new insights into the small spatial scale dynamics of activity associated with CMEs. Several new observing techniques have been demonstrated at total eclipses, and inclusion on spacebased platforms in the future could also prove valuable for understanding CMEs. A common element of several recent proposals is to image the white-light corona with extremely high spatial resolution. The momentary glimpses of the corona during total solar eclipses have shown fine structure that is not captured by global models, and dynamics of these structured elements may be important to resolve the question of CME initiation.

SaintCyr, Orville C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

New Approaches to Quantifying Transport Model Error in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations

In recent years, much progress has been made in observing CO2 distributions from space. However, the use of these observations to infer source/sink distributions in inversion studies continues to be complicated by difficulty in quantifying atmospheric transport model errors. We will present results from several different experiments designed to quantify different aspects of transport error using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). In the first set of experiments, an ensemble of simulations is constructed using perturbations to parameters in the model s moist physics and turbulence parameterizations that control sub-grid scale transport of trace gases. Analysis of the ensemble spread and scales of temporal and spatial variability among the simulations allows insight into how parameterized, small-scale transport processes influence simulated CO2 distributions. In the second set of experiments, atmospheric tracers representing model error are constructed using observation minus analysis statistics from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The goal of these simulations is to understand how errors in large scale dynamics are distributed, and how they propagate in space and time, affecting trace gas distributions. These simulations will also be compared to results from NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project that quantified the impact of uncertainty in satellite constrained CO2 flux estimates on atmospheric mixing ratios to assess the major factors governing uncertainty in global and regional trace gas distributions.

Ott, L.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Turbulent mixing in supercritical jets: effect of compressibility factor and inflow condition

Fuel injection and turbulent mixing at supercritical pressures determines ignition and combustion in numerous engineering applications. Flow evolution under such conditions is characterized by strong non-linear coupling between dynamics, transport coefficients, and thermodynamics. Experimental studies observe that the jets injected at supercritical pressures exhibit significantly different dynamics from the jets at subcritical conditions, owing to the lack of distinct liquid and gas phases in supercritical state. Thus, the averaged flow quantities such as the potential core length, jet spatial growth rate and velocity decay profiles differ in the two conditions, resulting in different mixed-fluid distributions. In this study, turbulent jet direct numerical simulations (DNS) are performed to examine the variations in flow statistics between injection of Nitrogen (N₂) in Nitrogen (N₂) at both subcritical (perfect-gas) and supercritical conditions. In all cases, isothermal round jets at Reynolds number (Re_{D}), based on jet diameter (D) and jet orifice velocity (U₀), of 5000 are considered. For mixing analyses, a passive scalar transported with the flow is examined.

Sharan, Nek↗
NASA NTRS2021

Assessment of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for Snowfall Retrieval in High Latitudes Using CloudSat and Machine Learning

Precipitation retrieval is a challenging topic, especially in high latitudes (HL), and current precipitation products face ample challenges over these regions. This study investigates the potential of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) for snowfall retrieval in HL using CloudSat radar information and machine learning (ML). With all the known limitations, AVHRR observations should be considered for HL snowfall retrieval because 1) AVHRR data have been continuously collected for about four decades on multiple platforms with global coverage, and similar observations will likely continue in the future; 2) current passive microwave satellite precipitation products have several issues over snow and ice surfaces; and 3) good coincident observations between AVHRR and CloudSat are available for training ML algorithms. Using ML, snowfall rate was retrieved from AVHRR’s brightness temperature and cloud probability, as well as auxiliary information provided by numerical reanalysis. The results indicate that the ML-based retrieval algorithm is capable of detection and estimation of snowfall with comparable or better statistical scores than those obtained from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and two passive microwave sensors contributing to the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission constellation. The outcomes also suggest that AVHRR-based snowfall retrievals are spatially and temporally reasonable and can be considered as a quantitatively useful input to the merged precipitation products that require frequent sampling or long-term records.

Mohammad Reza↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A NASA GISTEMP Observational Uncertainty Ensemble: Regional and Monthly Uncertainty

The historical global temperature record is an essential data product for quantifying the variability and change of the Earth system. In recent years, better characterization of observational uncertainty in global and hemispheric trends has become available, but the methodologies are not necessarily applicable to analyses at smaller regional areas, or monthly means, where station sparsity and other systematic issues contribute to greater uncertainty. This work details a gridded uncertainty ensemble of historical temperature anomalies from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature product (GISTEMP) product. This ensemble characterizes the complex spatial and temporal correlation structure of uncertainty in gridded historical temperature, enabling proper uncertainty propagation for climate and social science at regional and monthly scales. This work details the methodology for generating the uncertainty ensemble, key statistics of the uncertainty evolution over space and time, and provides best practices for using the uncertainty ensemble in future studies. Summary statistics from the uncertainty ensemble are in good agreement with production GISTEMP. Two applications of the uncertainty ensemble are also presented. First, the warmest year on record is shown to most likely be 2016 with a 53.2% chance and 2020 as the second most likely with a 44.4% chance. Second, it is shown that the arctic is warming 2.5 - 5 times faster than the globe, significantly faster than the regularly quoted twice as fast.

GISTEMP↗
NASA NTRS2017

Statistical Approaches for the Definition of Landslide Rainfall Thresholds and their Uncertainty Using Rain Gauge and Satellite Data

Models for forecasting rainfall-induced landslides are mostly based on the identification of empirical rainfall thresholds obtained exploiting rain gauge data. Despite their increased availability, satellite rainfall estimates are scarcely used for this purpose. Satellite data should be useful in ungauged and remote areas, or should provide a significant spatial and temporal reference in gauged areas. In this paper, the analysis of the reliability of rainfall thresholds based on rainfall remote sensed and rain gauge data for the prediction of landslide occurrence is carried out. To date, the estimation of the uncertainty associated with the empirical rainfall thresholds is mostly based on a bootstrap resampling of the rainfall duration and the cumulated event rainfall pairs (D,E) characterizing rainfall events responsible for past failures. This estimation does not consider the measurement uncertainty associated with D and E. In the paper, we propose (i) a new automated procedure to reconstruct ED conditions responsible for the landslide triggering and their uncertainties, and (ii) three new methods to identify rainfall threshold for the possible landslide occurrence, exploiting rain gauge and satellite data. In particular, the proposed methods are based on Least Square (LS), Quantile Regression (QR) and Nonlinear Least Square (NLS) statistical approaches. We applied the new procedure and methods to define empirical rainfall thresholds and their associated uncertainties in the Umbria region (central Italy) using both rain-gauge measurements and satellite estimates. We finally validated the thresholds and tested the effectiveness of the different threshold definition methods with independent landslide information. The NLS method among the others performed better in calculating thresholds in the full range of rainfall durations. We found that the thresholds obtained from satellite data are lower than those obtained from rain gauge measurements. This is in agreement with the literature, where satellite rainfall data underestimate the 'ground' rainfall registered by rain gauges.

landslide prediction↗
DOE OSTI2025

State-level suicide mortality insights: a comparative study of VHA veterans and the whole US population

Background: Suicide is a leading cause of death in the US Comparative State-level spatial analysis between Veterans Health Administration (VHA veterans) and the whole US population can reveal differences in conditions for targeted interventions and intricate geographical patterns. Methods: The study population contains 2018 and 2019 suicide deaths of VHA veterans and the whole US population. They were used to calculate state-level rates. States were classified by whether their VHA veteran and whole US population rates were above or below respective mean rates. Local Moran’s I was leveraged to examine spatial autocorrelation. Results: State-level suicide mortality rates and disparities among states were generally higher for VHA veterans (2018: 37.3 ± 7.2; 2019: 46.8 ± 8.3) than for the whole US population (2018: 16.6 ± 4.3; 2019: 16.4 ± 4.4). For both populations, there were statistically significant clusters with high suicide rates. Over one-fourth of states demonstrated inverse relationships, with rates above mean for one group but below for other. VHA veterans are at higher risk with over one-third of states had greater than average veteran suicide risk ratio. Conclusions: VHA veterans are at higher risk than the whole population across all states. Mortality disparities among states and clusters of states with high and low rates suggest targeted interventions and cooperative health strategies may help address these differences.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗