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A long-term study of SiO (v = 1, J = 2-1) maser emission from evolved stars and Orion A

General characteristics of eight late-type stars and Orion A in the SiO (v = 1, J = 2-1) maser line are reported based on observations made with the 20-m Onsala telescope between 1977 and 1984. Five stars show periodic maser flux variations that are well correlated with the infrared light curve, and the maximum SiO intensity and the dynamic range vary significantly between different periods and sources. Some long-term variations in the center velocity of the maser emission have been noted, with Omicron Cet possibly being a member of a binary system. Grand averages have been used to study the general velocity structure, and a global SiO (v = 1, J = 2-1) profile for Mira variables shows that the strongest emission is blueshifted with respect to the stellar velocity, while as a whole the emission is redshifted. The analysis places the SiO masers in a region between the pulsating stellar atmosphere and the expanding circumstellar envelope, where the velocity structure bears no relation to the expansion velocity of the shell.

Nyman, L.-A.↗

Discovery of a Transient Magnetar: XTE J1810-197

We report the discovery of a new X-ray pulsar, XTE J1810-197, that was serendipitously discovered on 2003 July 15 by the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) while observing the soft gamma repeater SGR 1806-20. The pulsar has a 5.54 s spin period, a soft X-ray spectrum (with a photon index of approx. = 4). and is detectable in earlier RXTE observations back to 2003 January but not before. These show that a transient outburst began between 2002 November 17 and 2003 January 23 and that the source's persistent X-ray flux has been declining since then. The pulsar exhibits a high spin-down rate P approx.= l0(exp -11) s/s with no evidence of Doppler shifts due to a binary companion. The rapid spin-down rate and slow spin period imply a supercritical characteristic magnetic field B approx. = 3 x l0(exp 14) G and a young age tau less than or = 7600 yr. Follow-up Chandra observations provided an accurate position of the source. Within its error radius, the 1.5 m Russian-Turkish Optical Telescope found a limiting magnitude R(sub c) = 21.5. All such properties are strikingly similar to those of anomalous X-ray pulsars ad soft gamma repeaters, providing strong evidence that the source is a new magnetar. However, archival ASCA and ROSAT observations found the source nearly 2 orders of magnitude fainter. This transient behavior and the observed long-term flux variability of the source in absence of an observed SGR-like burst activity make it the first confirmed transient magnetar and suggest that other neutron stars that share the properties of XTE 51810- 197 during its inactive phase may be unidentified transient magnetars awaiting detection via a similar activity. This implies a larger population of magnetars than previously surmised and a possible evolutionary connection between magnetars and other neutron star families. Subject headings: pulsars: general -pulsars: individual (XTE 51810- 197) - stars: magnetic fields -

Ibrahim, Alaa I.↗

Sensitivity of Tropospheric Ozone Over the Southeast USA to Dry Deposition

Dry deposition (DD) is a major loss process for tropospheric ozone and some reactive nitrogen and carbon precursors. We investigate the response of summertime ozone and its production chemistry over the Southeast United States (USA) to variability in this sink. Turning off DD of oxidized nitrogen, ozone, or all species over the United States in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM3 model increases regional mean surface ozone by 5, 18, or 25 ppb, respectively. Additional sensitivity simulations demonstrate that, assuming linearity, surface ozone has a similar sensitivity to ozone DD as to NOx emissions. Trends in ozone production efficiency derived from observed relationships between ozone and precursor oxidation products may not solely reflect precursor emission changes if ozone DD varies (e.g., with meteorology). We conclude that DD variability merits consideration when interpreting observed ozone trends. Quantifying the impact of changes in sinks versus sources will require long‐term DD measurements across the region of interest.

dry deposition↗

Determining the amount of physical activity needed for long-term weight control

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate prospectively the influence of habitual physical activity on body weight of men and women and to develop a model that defines the role of physical activity on longitudinal weight change. DESIGN AND SETTING: Occupational cohort study conducted for a mean of 5.5 y. SUBJECTS: A total of 496 (341 male and 155 female) NASA/Johnson Space Center employees who completed the 3 month education component of the employee health-related fitness program and remained involved for a minimum of 2 y. MEASUREMENTS: Body weights were measured at baseline (T1) and follow-up (T2), and habitual physical activity was obtained from the mean of multiple ratings of the 11-point (0-10) NASA Activity Scale (NAS) recorded quarterly between T1 and T2. Other measures included age, gender, VO(2 max) obtained from maximal treadmill testing, body mass index (BMI), and body fat percentage. RESULTS: Multiple regression demonstrated that mean NAS, T1 weight, aging and gender all influence long-term T2 weight. T1 age was significant for the men only. Independently, each increase in mean NAS significantly (P<0.01) reduced T2 weight in men (b=-0.91 kg; 95% CI:-1.4 to-0.42 kg) and women (b=-2.14 kg; 95% CI:-2.93 to-1.35 kg). Mean NAS had a greater effect on T2 weight as T1 weight increased, and the relationship was dose-dependent. CONCLUSIONS: Habitual physical activity is a significant source of long-term weight change. The use of self-reported activity level is helpful in predicting long-term weight changes and may be used by health care professionals when counseling patients about the value of physical activity for weight control.

Exercise↗

Mergers of Non-spinning Black-hole Binaries: Gravitational Radiation Characteristics

We present a detailed descriptive analysis of the gravitational radiation from black-hole binary mergers of non-spinning black holes, based on numerical simulations of systems varying from equal-mass to a 6:1 mass ratio. Our primary goal is to present relatively complete information about the waveforms, including all the leading multipolar components, to interested researchers. In our analysis, we pursue the simplest physical description of the dominant features in the radiation, providing an interpretation of the waveforms in terms of an implicit rotating source. This interpretation applies uniformly to the full wavetrain, from inspiral through ringdown. We emphasize strong relationships among the l = m modes that persist through the full wavetrain. Exploring the structure of the waveforms in more detail, we conduct detailed analytic fitting of the late-time frequency evolution, identifying a key quantitative feature shared by the l = m modes among all mass-ratios. We identify relationships, with a simple interpretation in terms of the implicit rotating source, among the evolution of frequency and amplitude, which hold for the late-time radiation. These detailed relationships provide sufficient information about the late-time radiation to yield a predictive model for the late-time waveforms, an alternative to the common practice of modeling by a sum of quasinormal mode overtones. We demonstrate an application of this in a new effective-one-body-based analytic waveform model.

Baker, John G.↗

CLimate Impact: Determining Etiology thRough pAthways (CLDERA)

Climate impacts have broad economic, health, political, and national security ramifications. Societally relevant impacts are typically farther downstream, are the product of multiple interacting processes, and can arise over small regions and timeframes because their sources are short-term and localized. Short-term forcings (as can be seen in volcanic eruptions, climatic tipping points (e.g., the collapse of rainforests or the disappearance of sea ice), or in increasingly plausible climate interventions) fundamentally possess low signal-to-noise and could benefit from accounting for the multiple conditional processes through which a downstream impact arises. Under the Grand Challenge LDRD CLDERA (CLimate impacts: Discovering Etiology thRough pAthways), we have developed tools to enable downstream impact attribution from geographically and temporally localized source forcings in the climate. CLDERA developed methods that can distinguish how a localized source drives the climate system to respond with particular impacts. The how is embodied in pathways – the spatio-temporally evolving chain of physical processes that connects a source to a series of increasingly distant impacts. Novel analytic methods in pursuit of downstream impact attribution were developed and demonstrated on simulations and observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. As described within this report we have • developed stratospheric expertise and aerosol modeling capabilities in E3SM, • created original methods to detect and model pathways from source-to-impact, and • advanced climate attribution through novel methods, cases, and approaches. Further, CLDERA developed a tiered verification process consisting of controlled datasets to prototype, verify, and refine the original method development. CLDERA increased Sandia’s footprint in the climate analytics community and developed new climate collaborations whilst also creating a cadre of climate analysts at Sandia. The products from CLDERA have been extensive with a total of 9 journal articles published, 12 articles submitted and under review, and an additional 8 articles in preparation. We have produced 1750 simulated years and developed 9 code-bases. This report details these accomplishments and serves as a summary of the work completed during the CLDERA Grand Challenge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Two-micron Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) pointing/tracking study

The objective of the study was to identify and model major sources of short-term pointing jitter for a free-flying, full performance 2 micron LAWS system and evaluate the impact of the short-term jitter on wind-measurement performance. A fast steering mirror controls system was designed for the short-term jitter compensation. The performance analysis showed that the short-term jitter performance of the controls system over the 5.2 msec round-trip time for a realistic spacecraft environment was = 0.3 micro rad, rms, within the specified value of less than 0.5 micro rad, rms, derived in a 2 micron LAWS System Study. Disturbance modes were defined for: (1) the Bearing and Power Transfer Assembly (BAPTA) scan bearing, (2) the spacecraft reaction wheel torques, and (3) the solar array drive torques. The scan bearing disturbance was found to be the greatest contributing noise source to the jitter performance. Disturbances from the fast steering mirror reaction torques and a boom-mounted cross-link antenna clocking were also considered but were judged to be small compared to the three principal disturbance sources above and were not included in the final controls analysis.

Manlief, Scott↗

Binary Source Microlensing Event OGLE-2016-BLG-0733: Interpretation of a Long-Term Asymmetric Perturbation

In the process of analyzing an observed light curve, one often confronts various scenarios that can mimic the planetary signals causing difficulties in the accurate interpretation of the lens system. In this paper, we present the analysis of the microlensing event OGLE-2016-BLG-0733. The light curve of the event shows a long-term asymmetric perturbation that would appear to be due to a planet. From the detailed modeling of the lensing light curve, however, we find that the perturbation originates from the binarity of the source rather than the lens. This result demonstrates that binary sources with roughly equal-luminosity components can mimic long-term perturbations induced by planets with projected separations near the Einstein ring. The result also represents the importance of the consideration of various interpretations in planet-like perturbations and of high-cadence observations for ensuring the unambiguous detection of the planet.

microlensing event OGLE-2016-BLG-0733↗

Approaching the Lower Temporal Limit of Laser‐Produced Plasma Sources for Table‐Top Soft X‐Ray NEXAFS Measurements

Abstract The increasing popularity of time‐resolved X‐ray absorption measurements for understanding dynamics in molecular and material systems has led to many advances in table‐top sources for pulsed X‐rays. We report on a table‐top laser‐produced plasma (LPP) source that can perform soft X‐ray (SXR), near‐edge X‐ray absorption fine structure (NEXAFS) measurements using a laser source with 23 ps pulse duration. The spectrometer's key specifications, such as brilliance, resolution, and stability, are characterized against the more commonly used longer‐pulse‐duration LPP sources. The 23 ps laser produced approximately an order of magnitude weaker SXR flux than the 8 ns laser for a higher power density due to the smaller total energy absorbed by the plasma. The increased repetition rate, as well as the use of a high line‐density X‐grating, and a self‐referencing scheme still allowed for NEXAFS measurements of Si 3 N 4 and TiO 2 thin films with 2.5 minute acquisition times, a resolving power of E/ΔE=424, and a signal‐to‐noise ratio of 100. It was observed that degradation of the gas jet nozzle led to long‐term instability of the source, which can be remediated using alternative nozzle designs. This work demonstrates the feasibility of achieving higher temporal resolution in future time‐resolved X‐ray absorption measurements using table‐top LPP sources.

Nimlos, Danika [Division of Chemistry and Chemical↗

A Thousand Days After the Merger: Continued X-ray Emission from GW170817

Recent observations with the Chandra X-ray telescope continue to detect X-ray emission from the transient GW170817. In a total exposure of 96.6 ks, performed between 2020 March 9 and 16 (935–942 d after the merger), a total of 8 photons are measured at the source position, corresponding to a significance of ≈5σ. Radio monitoring with the Australian Telescope Compact Array (ATCA) shows instead that the source has faded below our detection threshold (<33 μJy, 3σ). By assuming a constant spectral index of β = 0.585, we derive an unabsorbed X-ray flux of ≈1.4 × 10−15 erg cm−2 s−1, higher than earlier predictions, yet still consistent with a simple structured jet model. We discuss possible scenarios that could account for prolonged emission in X-rays. The current data set appears consistent both with energy injection by a long-lived central engine and with the onset of a kilonova afterglow, arising from the interaction of the sub-relativistic merger ejecta with the surrounding medium. Long-term monitoring of this source will be essential to test these different models.

Gravitational waves↗

On the 2018 Outburst of the Accreting Millisecond X-Ray Pulsar Swift J1756.9-2508 As Seen with NICER

We report on the coherent timing analysis of the 182 Hz accreting millisecond X-ray pulsar SwiftJ1756.92508during its 2018 outburst as observed with the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER). Combiningour NICER observations with Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer observations of the 2007 and 2009 outbursts, we alsostudied the long-term spin and orbital evolution of this source. We find that the binary system is well describedby a constant orbital period model, with an upper limit on the orbital period derivative of Pb < 7.4 ´ 10-13 ss1.Additionally, we improve upon the source coordinates through astrometric analysis of the pulse arrival times,finding R.A.=17h56m57 18±0 08 and decl.=25°0627 8±3 5, while simultaneously measuring thelong-term spin frequency derivative as n = -7.3 ´ 10-16 Hzs1. We briefly discuss the implications of thesemeasurements in the context of the wider population of accreting millisecond pulsars. We reported on the coherent timing analysis of the 2018 outburst of Swift J1756 as observed with NICER. Consistent with analyses of the previous outbursts (Krimm et al. 2007b; Patruno et al. 2010), we find that the X-ray pulsations have energy dependent amplitudes; the fractional amplitude of the fundamental increases with energy, whereas the fractional amplitude of the harmonic shows a slight decline with energy. This energy dependent behavior is not unusual in AMXPs (Patruno & Watts 2012) and can be interpreted in terms of the thermal emission from the stellar hotspot and reprocessing in the accretion column (e.g., Gierliński et al. 2002; Ibragimov & Poutanen 2009). The pulse arrival times of the 2018 outburst are well described by a timing model consisting of a circular orbit with a constant spin frequency. The pulse phases with respect to this model do not show spurious residuals with time or orbital phase, and no evidence is found that the pulse arrival times exhibit an additional delay associated with passing through the gravitational well of the companion star (Shapiro delay). We note, however, that the expected Shapiro delay is given as (Shapiro et al. 1971) Equation (5) where Φ is the orbital phase, G is the gravitational constant, c is the speed of light, and i is the inclination. Even for the maximum allowed companion mass, ${M}_{C}=0.030\,{M}_{\odot }$ (Krimm et al. 2007b, but see Section 4.2 for more details) and an inclination of 90°, the largest delay we can expect is only 4 μs. As this time-delay is smaller than the uncertainty on our phase residuals by nearly two orders of magnitude (see Figure 1), we are not sensitive to Shapiro delays in Swift J1756. Comparing our measurements for the 2018 outburst with those of the 2007 and 2009 outbursts as observed with RXTE, we analyzed the long-term evolution of this source. We found that the binary system is consistent with having a constant orbital period and that the pulsar shows a spin frequency derivative of $\dot{\nu }=-7.3\times {10}^{-16}\,\mathrm{Hz}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$. 4.1. Spin-down Evolution The long-term spin frequency derivative measured in Swift J1756 is of the same order as the spin frequency derivatives measured in other AMXPs (Hartman et al. 2008; Patruno 2010; Riggio et al. 2011). This frequency change is most likely driven by the neutron star's loss of rotational energy. If so, then the spin-down luminosity is given as Equation (6) where I represents the neutron star moment of inertia. The long-term spin-down of a neutron star is usually assumed to be dominated by the braking torque associated with a spinning magnetic field. Assuming this mechanism is responsible for the observed spin-down in Swift J1756, we can compute the magnetic dipole moment as (Spitkovsky 2006) Equation (7) where α is the misalignment angle between the rotational and magnetic poles. Considering α = 0°–90°, we then find a magnetic field strength of $B\simeq (4\mbox{--}6)\times {10}^{8}$ G at the stellar magnetic poles. This magnetic field strength estimate is in line with those obtained for other accreting millisecond pulsars (see Mukherjee et al. 2015 and references therein). 4.2. Orbit Evolution The observed long-term binary evolution of Swift J1756 is consistent with this source having a constant orbital period and a lower limit on the evolutionary timescale of Equation (8) Binary evolution theory predicts that systems of this type evolve due to angular momentum loss through gravitational radiation (Kraft et al. 1962; Rappaport et al. 1982; Verbunt 1993). For conservative mass transfer, the binary period derivative is given by di Salvo et al. (2008), Equation (9) where MNS is the neutron star mass, $q={M}_{C}/{M}_{\mathrm{NS}}$ is the binary mass ratio, and −1/3 < n < 1 is the mass–radius index of the companion star. Depending on the source inclination, Krimm et al. (2007b) derived a companion mass of ${M}_{C}\,=0.007\mbox{--}0.022\,{M}_{\odot }$ for a neutron star mass of 1.4 ${M}_{\odot }$. For a neutron star mass of 2.2 ${M}_{\odot }$, the allowed range increased to ${M}_{C}=0.009\mbox{--}0.030\,{M}_{\odot }$. In both cases, they assumed an upper limit on the inclination of i < 85°, motivated by the fact that Swift J1756 does not show eclipses in its light curve. Accounting for the extreme cases of stellar masses and n, the binary may either be contracting or expanding. In either case, however, the rate of change is limited to $| {\dot{P}}_{b}| \lesssim 7\times {10}^{-14}$ s s−1, which is well below the upper limit obtained in this work. Although the binary evolution timescale we obtain for Swift J1756 is consistent with theory, it is worth noting that this is not generally true for low-mass X-ray binaries (see Patruno et al. 2017, for a comprehensive discussion). The AMXP SAX J1808.4–3658, in particular, has been found to evolve on a much shorter timescale, with a first derivative on the orbital period of $3.5\times {10}^{-12}$ s s−1 (Hartman et al. 2008; Patruno et al. 2012; Sanna et al. 2017a). Two models have been proposed to explain this discrepancy: highly nonconservative mass transfer due to irradiation of the companion star by the pulsar (di Salvo et al. 2008; Burderi et al. 2009), and spin–orbit coupling in the companion star (Hartman et al. 2008, 2009). While the latter depends on the companion star, and may vary from source to source, the former should operate in all AMXPs (see also Patruno 2017; Sanna et al. 2017c), including Swift J1756. The spin-down luminosity impinging on the companion star can be estimated as Equation (10) where ${\dot{E}}_{\mathrm{abl}}$ is the ablation luminosity, RL2 is the Roche lobe radius of the companion (Eggleton 1983), and a the binary separation. The irradiation fraction is $f={\dot{E}}_{\mathrm{abl}}/{\dot{E}}_{\mathrm{sd}}$, which, accounting for the range of allowed neutron star and companion masses, evaluates to f = 0.15%–0.35%. The associated mass loss for the companion is given by Equation (11) such that, assuming an efficiency of η = 100%, ${\dot{M}}_{C}\,\sim -3\times {10}^{-10}\,{M}_{\odot }$ yr−1. The effect of this mass loss on the orbital period follows through the relation (Frank et al. 2002) Equation (12) giving a period derivative due to mass loss of ${\dot{P}}_{b,\mathrm{ML}}\,=5\times {10}^{-12}$ s s−1. This value is well above our limit on the period derivative. Hence, in order for this mechanism to be consistent with our observations of Swift J1756, the efficiency at which the companion star converts the incident luminosity into mass loss must be η < 15%. This value is very different from the 40% required in SAX J1808.4–3658 (Patruno et al. 2016) and is instead in line with the <5% efficiency determined for IGR J00291+5934 (Patruno 2017). This work was supported by NASA through the NICER mission and the Astrophysics Explorers Program, and made use of data and software provided by the High Energy Astrophysics Science Archive Research Center (HEASARC). P.B. was supported by an NPP fellowship at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. D.A. acknowledges support from the Royal Society.

Bult, Peter↗

Pipe Parity Analysis of Seawater Desalination in the United States: Exploring Costs, Energy, and Reliability via Case Studies and Scenarios of Emerging Technology

As climate change-induced variables exacerbate water scarcities, the use of seawater reverse osmosis (SWRO) membrane desalination technology for treating seawater could potentially provide a long-term drought-proof source of drinking water. This study carried out a technoeconomic assessment (TEA) for three SWRO desalination plants in the U.S. and one in Israel to set baselines for the cost and energy consumption for seawater desalination. In addition, a breakeven curve for implementing SWRO desalination was estimated in relation to the cost of water conservation measures to meet drought-induced reduction of the traditional water supply. The results show that the cost of SWRO water production scales with the plant capacity while energy intensity is not dramatically different across the plants. The higher cost in some U.S. plants is due to high capital investment, including land acquisition and permitting. Variations in plant capacity utilization have the greatest impact on the levelized cost of water (LCOW) over the plant service life, suggesting the importance of reducing fouling and maintenance-related downtime. Scenario analysis of fixed labor cost reduction through process automation indicates investments in automation and sensing technology could result in long-term savings. Breakeven analysis shows the decision to adopt SWRO is highly dependent on the local cost associated with water conservation to meet water supply reduction. Moreover, a small reduction in SWRO cost can influence a shift toward the adoption of SWRO over water conservation measures. Incorporation of future water demand, water conservation potential, and water stress data around the nation indicates SWRO desalination could be an important contributor to the future municipal drinking water portfolio in the U.S.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Analysis and Synthesis of Tonal Aircraft Noise Sources

Fixed and rotary wing aircraft operations can have a significant impact on communities in proximity to airports. Simulation of predicted aircraft flyover noise, paired with listening tests, is useful to noise reduction efforts since it allows direct annoyance evaluation of aircraft or operations currently in the design phase. This paper describes efforts to improve the realism of synthesized source noise by including short term fluctuations, specifically for inlet-radiated tones resulting from the fan stage of turbomachinery. It details analysis performed on an existing set of recorded turbofan data to isolate inlet-radiated tonal fan noise, then extract and model short term tonal fluctuations using the analytic signal. Methodologies for synthesizing time-variant tonal and broadband turbofan noise sources using measured fluctuations are also described. Finally, subjective listening test results are discussed which indicate that time-variant synthesized source noise is perceived to be very similar to recordings.

Allen, Matthew P.↗

Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability

Large wildfires exert strong disturbance on regional and global climate systems and ecosystems by perturbing radiative forcing as well as the carbon and water balance between the atmosphere and land surface, while short- and long-term variations in fire weather, terrestrial ecosystems, and human activity modulate fire intensity and reshape fire regimes. The complex climate–fire–ecosystem interactions were not fully integrated in previous climate model studies, and the resulting effects on the projections of future climate change are not well understood. Here we use the fully interactive REgion-Specific ecosystem feedback Fire model (RESFire) that was developed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate these interactions and their impacts on climate systems and fire activity. We designed two sets of decadal simulations using CESM-RESFire for present-day (2001–2010) and future (2051–2060) scenarios, respectively, and conducted a series of sensitivity experiments to assess the effects of individual feedback pathways among climate, fire, and ecosystems. Our implementation of RESFire, which includes online land–atmosphere coupling of fire emissions and fire-induced land cover change (LCC), reproduces the observed aerosol optical depth (AOD) from space-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite products and ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data; it agrees well with carbon budget benchmarks from previous studies. We estimate the global averaged net radiative effect of both fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC at –0.59±0.52 W m –2 , which is dominated by fire aerosol–cloud interactions (–0.82±0.19 W m –2 ), in the present-day scenario under climatological conditions of the 2000s. The fire-related net cooling effect increases by ~170 % to –1.60±0.27 W m –2 in the 2050s under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario. Such considerably enhanced radiative effect is attributed to the largely increased global burned area (+19 %) and fire carbon emissions (+100 %) from the 2000s to the 2050s driven by climate change. The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon between the land and atmosphere components in the simulations increases by 33 % accordingly, implying that biomass burning is an increasing carbon source at short-term timescales in the future. High-latitude regions with prevalent peatlands would be more vulnerable to increased fire threats due to climate change, and the increase in fire aerosols could counter the projected decrease in anthropogenic aerosols due to air pollution control policies in many regions. We also evaluate two distinct feedback mechanisms that are associated with fire aerosols and fire-induced LCC, respectively. On a global scale, the first mechanism imposes positive feedbacks to fire activity through enhanced droughts with suppressed precipitation by fire aerosol–cloud interactions, while the second one manifests as negative feedbacks due to reduced fuel loads by fire consumption and post-fire tree mortality and recovery processes. These two feedback pathways with opposite effects compete at regional to global scales and increase the complexity of climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and their climatic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Experimental characterization of hot-electron emission and shock dynamics in the context of the shock ignition approach to inertial confinement fusion

We report on planar target experiments conducted on the OMEGA-EP laser facility performed in the context of the shock ignition (SI) approach to inertial confinement fusion. The experiment aimed at characterizing the propagation of strong shock in matter and the generation of hot electrons (HEs), with laser parameters relevant to SI (1-ns UV laser beams with I ~10 16 W/cm 2 ). Time-resolved radiographs of the propagating shock front were performed in order to study the hydrodynamic evolution. The hot-electron source was characterized in terms of Maxwellian temperature, T h , and laser to hot-electron energy conversion efficiency η using data from different x-ray spectrometers. The post-processing of these data gives a range of the possible values for T h and η [i.e., T h [keV] ϵ (20, 50) and η ϵ (2%, 13%)]. These values are used as input in hydrodynamic simulations to reproduce the results obtained in radiographs, thus constraining the range for the HE measurements. According to this procedure, we found that the laser converts ~10% ± 4% of energy into hot electrons with T h = 27 ± 8 keV. The paper shows how the coupling of different diagnostics and numerical tools is required to sufficiently constrain the problem, solving the large ambiguity coming from the post-processing of spectrometers data. The effect of the hot electrons on the shock dynamics is then discussed, showing an increase in the pressure around the shock front. Furthermore, the low temperature found in this experiment without pre-compression laser pulses could be advantageous for the SI scheme, but the high conversion efficiency may lead to an increase in the shell adiabat, with detrimental effects on the implosion.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Long-term temporal variability of Cygnus X-2

Observations of the low-mass binary X-ray source Cyg X-2 taken over a five-year period using instruments on OSO 8, HEAO 1, and Einstein are presented. Irregular changes in intensity of up to 60 percent on time scales ranging from minutes to days are seen. The source appears to have long-term low-luminosity states during which dips lasting about three days occur. When these long dips occur, they always appear at the same phase in the optically determined 9.8-day orbital period. There are three distinct types of short-term dips distinguished by differing correlations between spectral hardness and intensity.

Vrtilek, S. D.↗

Froggatt-Nielsen meets the SMEFT

We study the matching of Froggatt-Nielsen theories of flavour onto the Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT), upon integrating out a heavy Beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) scalar ‘flavon’ whose vacuum expectation value breaks an Abelian flavour symmetry at energies Λ FN well above the electroweak scale, Λ FN > Λ SM . We include matching contributions to the infrared d SM = 6 (Warsaw basis) SMEFT sourced from ultraviolet contact terms suppressed up to order 1/${\Lambda}_{\textrm{UV}}^2$ in the Froggatt-Nielsen Lagrangian, where Λ UV > Λ FN is an arbitrary ultraviolet scale where further unspecified BSM particles are dynamical. This includes tree-level (one-loop) ultraviolet diagrams with d FN = 6 (5) effective vertices. We first do so with a toy model, but then generalize our findings to arbitrary Frogatt-Nielsen charges. Our results indicate a rich and non-trivial signature of Froggatt-Nielsen theories on the (otherwise) model-independent operators of the SMEFT, and we briefly speculate on extending our analysis to broader classes of BSM flavour models, e.g. non-Abelian and/or gauged theories. We thus take an important step towards determining how to use rapidly developing theoretical and experimental SMEFT technologies to gain unambiguous insight into the SM’s longstanding fermion flavour puzzle.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Hydrologic applicability of satellite-based precipitation estimates for irrigation water management in the data-scarce region

Reliable precipitation estimates are crucial for planning and managing water resources, monitoring hydrologic extremes, and fulfilling irrigation water requirements. Accurate precipitation estimates are particularly challenging in complex mountain terrains, where monitoring gauges are often sparsely distributed due to their remote locations, and high installation and long-term operation costs. Recent advances in satellite-based precipitation estimates offer promising opportunities to improve our understanding of hydrologic processes and their applications for irrigation water management. Several datasets are available varying considerably in terms of their data sources, quality control methods, estimation procedure, and spatiotemporal resolutions. Choosing the most suitable dataset for a particular application is a complex task. In this study, we (1) evaluate the performance of six satellite-based precipitation estimates (SPEs): i) CHIRPS v2.0, ii) CMORPH v1.0, iii) ERA5, iv) IMERG v6, v) MSWEP v2.8, and vi) PERSIANN-CDR against the gauge precipitation using continuous statistical and categorical indices, (2) integrate SPEs with a calibrated semi-distributed hydrologic model to predict streamflow, and (3) demonstrate practical implications of improved streamflow prediction for irrigation water management in the central Himalayan region, Nepal. Our results illustrate that satellite-based precipitation estimates have competitive performance in capturing a wide range of rainfall characteristics, with demonstrated variability across river basins and time scales. Further, there are no significant discrepancies observed in satellite-based precipitation estimates for estimating irrigation water requirements for the three major crops (maize, wheat, and paddy) during the cropping period across the selected river basins, showing a greater promise for irrigation water management planning and decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗