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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.

distribution system↗

The measurement of ultraviolet radiation and sunburn time over southern Ontario

Studies of the depletion of ozone which have been conducted from the TOMS instrument on the NIMBUS 7 satellite indicate that total ozone has declined by 5 percent over the last 12 years at most mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere typical of southern Ontario. The measurement of the actual resultant increases in UVB is now important. A monitoring program of UVB (biologically active solar ultraviolet radiation) has been conducted for the last 24 months at a site near Bolton, Ontario. The sunburn time varies from less than 17 minutes in late July, to over 4 hours in December on clear days. The levels depend on solar insolation and total ozone column. The ultraviolet levels are strongly affected by cloud and sky conditions. The implications of present and future depletion on the sunburn time are discussed.

Evans, W. F. J.↗

Overview of the Habitat Demonstration Unit Power System Integration and Operation at Desert RATS 2010

A habitat demonstration unit (HDU) was constructed at NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) and designed by a multicenter NASA team led out of NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The HDU was subsequently utilized at the 2010 Desert Research and Technology Studies (RATS) program held at the Black Point Lava Flow in Arizona. This report describes the power system design, installation and operation for the HDU. The requirements for the power system were to provide 120 VAC, 28 VDC, and 120 VDC power to the various loads within the HDU. It also needed to be capable of providing power control and real-time operational data on the load's power consumption. The power system had to be capable of operating off of a 3 phase 480 VAC generator as well as 2 solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems. The system operated well during the 2 week Desert RATS campaign and met all of the main goals of the system. The power system is being further developed to meet the future needs of the HDU and options for this further development are discussed.

Colozza, Anthony J.↗

Laboratory Studies of Cometary Materials - Continuity Between Asteroid and Comet

Laboratory analysis of cometary samples have been enabled by collection of cometary dust in the stratosphere by high altitude aircraft and by the direct sampling of the comet Wild‐2 coma by the NASA Stardust spacecraft. Cometary materials are composed of a complex assemblage of highly primitive, unprocessed interstellar and primordial solar system materials as well as a variety of high temperature phases that must have condensed in the inner regions of the protoplanetary disk. These findings support and contradict conclusions of comet properties based solely on astronomical observations. These sample return missions have instead shown that there is a continuity of properties between comets and asteroids, where both types of materials show evidence for primitive and processed materials. Furthermore, these findings underscore the importance and value of direct sample return. There will be great value in comparing the findings of the Stardust cometary coma sample return mission with those of future asteroid surface sample returns OSIRIS‐REx and Hayabusa II as well as future comet nucleus sample returns.

Messenger, Scott↗

Environmentally-induced voltage limitations in large space power systems

Large power systems proposed for future space missions imply higher operating voltage requirements which, in turn, will interact with the space plasma environment. The effects of these interactions can only be inferred because of the limited data base of ground simulations, small test samples, and two space flight experiments. This report evaluates floating potentials for a 100 kW power system operating at 300, 500, 750, and 1000 volts in relation to this data base. Of primary concern is the possibility of discharging to space. The implications of such discharges were studied at the 500 volt operational setting. It was found that discharging can shut down the power system if the discharge current exceeds the array short circuit current. Otherwise, a power oscillation can result that ranges from 2 to 20 percent, depending upon the solar array area involved in the discharge. Means of reducing the effect are discussed.

Stevens, N. J.↗

Strategic Implications of Human Exploration of Near-Earth Asteroids

The current United States Space Policy [1] as articulated by the White House and later confirmed by the Congress [2] calls for [t]he extension of the human presence from low-Earth orbit to other regions of space beyond low-Earth orbit will enable missions to the surface of the Moon and missions to deep space destinations such as near-Earth asteroids and Mars. Human exploration of the Moon and Mars has been the focus of numerous exhaustive studies and planning, but missions to Near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) has, by comparison, garnered relatively little attention in terms of mission and systems planning. This paper examines the strategic implications of human exploration of NEAs and how they can fit into the overall exploration strategy. This paper specifically addresses how accessible NEAs are in terms of mission duration, technologies required, and overall architecture construct. Example mission architectures utilizing different propulsion technologies such as chemical, nuclear thermal, and solar electric propulsion were formulated to determine resulting figures of merit including number of NEAs accessible, time of flight, mission mass, number of departure windows, and length of the launch windows. These data, in conjunction with what we currently know about these potential exploration targets (or need to know in the future), provide key insights necessary for future mission and strategic planning.

Drake, Bret G.↗

Membrane Adsorbents Comprising Self-Assembled Inorganic Nanocages (SINCs) for Super-fast Direct Air Capture Enabled by Passive Cooling

The objectives of the proposed project were to develop highly porous membrane adsorbents comprising CO 2 -philic polymers and self-assembled inorganic nanocages (SINCs) for rapid temperature swing adsorption using electricity-free solar heating and radiative cooling, enabling an economically viable approach for direct air capture (DAC). Our core technical activities combine three key innovations. (1) Highly porous flat-sheet membrane adsorbents contain CO 2 -philic amines that can be easily produced using a phase inversion method. (2) CO 2 -philic SINCs can be easily dispersed in the polymers with great stability (compared with the metal-organic frameworks or MOFs). (3) The adsorption and desorption are integrated with solar heating and radiative cooling for rapid continuous operation, in contrast to traditional long-cycle separate operation. The membrane adsorbents containing amines, polymers, and SINCs were produced using a one-step industrial process. The porous membranes coupled with porous SINCs offer low resistance for gas flow and fast CO 2 sorption/desorption cycles, while the incorporation of the additional amine groups provides high CO 2 sorption capacity. The key achievements are summarized below. (1) Membrane adsorbents with high PEI loading (>40%), high porosity of >80%, and low gasflow resistance were prepared in one step using commercially available, low-cost materials. (2) Membrane adsorbents based on Solupor and PEI show CO 2 sorption capacity of >1.5 mmol/g using air containing 400 ppm at a relative humidity of 15%. (3) Effect of the adsorbent compositions (such as PEI type, PEI content, SINC content, porosity) on the CO 2 sorption was systematically investigated. (4) Effect of the processing conditions (such as CO 2 content, temperature, and relative humidity) on the CO 2 sorption was systematically investigated; (5) The stability of the membrane adsorption against many cycles of sorption and desorption was studied. The higher molecular weight of PEI (PEI25k) shows better stability than PEI800. (6) Advanced materials with radiative cooling were developed, which can decrease the temperature by 5-7 °C compared to the ambient temperature. (7) Preliminary techno-economic analysis shows that our process may achieve a capture cost of $1,343/tonne CO 2 with a total OPEX cost of $1,112/tonne CO 2 . The adsorbent replacement cost accounted for 52% of the total OPEX cost. Membrane adsorbents with lower costs and longer operation life can significantly decrease the cost. The proposed project directly addresses the requirement of DE-FOA-0002188, i.e., novel materials with CO 2 adsorption capacity for direct air capture with integrated solar heating and radiative cooling to reduce the cost of the DAC. Our future work will focus on the development of low-cost adsorbents that can be stable at the sorption and desorption conditions for long term.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Propulsion Options For Interstellar Exploration

NASA is considering missions to explore near-interstellar space (40 - 250 Astronomical Units) early in the next decade as the first step toward a vigorous interstellar exploration program. A key enabling technology for such an ambitious science and exploration effort is a propulsion system capable of providing fast trip times, yet which has low enough mass to allow for the use of inexpensive launch vehicles. Advanced propulsion technologies that might support the First interstellar precursor mission by the end of the first decade of the new millennium include solar sails and nuclear electric propulsion. Solar sails and electric propulsion are two technology areas that may hold promise for the next generation of interstellar precursor missions as well - perhaps a thousand astronomical units traveled in a professional lifetime. Future missions to far beyond the Heliosphere will require the development of propulsion technologies that are only at the conceptual stage today. For years, the scientific community has been interested in solar sail and electric propulsion technologies to support robotic exploration of the solar system. Progress in thin-film materials fabrication and handling, and advancement in technologies that may enable the deployment of large sails in space are only now maturing to the point where ambitious interstellar precursor missions using sails can be considered. Xenon ion propulsion is now being demonstrated for planetary exploration by the Deep Space 1 mission. The primary issues for the adaptation of electric propulsion to interstellar precursor applications include the development of low specific mass nuclear power systems, engine lifetime, and high power operation. Recent studies of interstellar precursor mission scenarios that use these propulsion systems will be described, and the range of application of each technology will be explored.

Johnson, Les↗

Global Geospace Science (GGS)/POLAR Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiments (TIDE) Co-Investigator Program: Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MO/DA)

We have pursued several investigations using the Polar/TIDE data set. The first was a comparison of TIDE high-altitude observations with similar ion flux signatures in the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) magnetospheric plasma analyzer (MPA) data. There are several geosynchronously orbiting satellites with LANL MPA instruments onboard. When the satellite is immersed in fresh plasma sheet electrons, the spacecraft voltage drops to several hundred volts negative, and cold ions are accelerated in to the detector. In the LANL MPA spectrograms, the accelerated cold ions appear as a bright, narrow line, following the voltage of the spacecraft. This "ion line" is seen regularly on the nightside, but has not received much attention. The Polar TIDE observations indicated a ubiquitous "lobal wind" in the near-- magnetotail, a field-aligned stream of approx. 100 eV ions flowing out of both polar ionospheres. The interesting result of this research is that the MPA ion line is also peaked in the field-aligned direction, even though the potential well should be uniform in all directions. It is believed that this is evidence that the lobal winds not only populate the high-latitude lobes, but fill the lobes all the way in to the near-Earth plasma sheet (the location of geosynchronous orbit). This activity developed into a full-scale survey of the lobal wind observations in the TIDE database. The universality of these observations with respect to local time and solar wind conditions implies that the ionospheric outflow is supplying the near-Earth plasma sheet at all times, regardless of magnetic activity. We have conducted a statistical study of the characteristics of the lobal wind in these two data sets FIDE and LANL MPA), finding much similarity between them. Using these characteristics as input conditions to our inner magnetosphere ion transport model, we have conducted simulations of the flow of these particles inside of geosynchronous orbit to show the impact these particles will have on the near-Earth space environment. As the study has progressed, these results have been presented several times to the TIDE team during teleconferences. It is planned to present this survey at the GEM 2004 Summer Workshop, and hopefully at additional conferences in the near future. We are presently writing a paper on the lobal wind occurrence statistics, which should be submitted in April or May to the Journal of Geophysical Research for publication. An undergraduate student at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, Will Maddox, working at NASA MSFC with Dr. Paul Craven, is presently creating a database of the values TIDE moments for the lobal wind (under Dr. Liemohn's guidance), and this will be the focus of a follow-on paper.

Nagy, Andrew↗

A Review and Reflections on the Sun-Climate Connection

The field of sun-climate is beset with an extraordinary number of numerical correlations attempting to relate various periodicities of solar activity with changes in the Earth's weather and climate. Signatures representing climatological variability have been sought for cycles as short as the solar 28-day rotational period up to Milankovich periods of thousands of years, although a majority of correlations have concentrated on the 11-year sunspot and 22-year Hale double sunspot cycles. For the shorter term, parameters including temperature, pressure, winds storm tracks, rainfall, and water levels in rivers and lakes, etc. have been correlated with solar variability. For longer periods, it has been necessary to seek more indirect evidence in ice cores, tree rings, and geologic deep sea cores. Other atmospheric parameters relating to atmospheric electricity and the global electric circuit have also been correlated in similar fashion. Unfortunately, few, if any, of this wide spectrum of numerical correlations have been associated with any viable physical explanation, making most studies in the field an exercise in numerical statistics. More recently, a few suggestions for plausible coupling processes have begun to appear. These, coupled with new and stronger correlations involving selective binning of climatological data sets have injected new life and hope to this field. An overview is given of the historical past and current perspectives, to evaluate possible avenues for defining physical linking processes in the future.

Goldberg, Richard A.↗

Discovery Deep Space Optical Communications (DSOC) transceiver

NASA’s 22 cm diameter Deep Space Optical Communications (DSOC) Transceiver is designed to provide a bi-directional optical link between a spacecraft in the inner solar system and an Earth-based optical ground station. This design, optimized for operation across a wide range of illumination conditions, is focused on minimizing blinding from stray light, and providing reliable, accurate attitude information to point its narrow communication beam accurately to the future location of the ground terminal. Though our transceiver will transmit in the 1550 nm waveband and receive in the 1064 nm waveband, the system design relies heavily on reflective optical elements, extending flexibility to be modified for use at different wavebands. The design makes use of common path propagation among transmit, receive and pointing verification optical channels to maintain precise alignment among its components, and to naturally correct for element misalignment resulting from launch or thermal element perturbations. This paper presents the results of trade studies showing the evolution of the design, unique operational characteristics of the design, elements that help to maintain minimal stray light contamination, and preliminary results from development and initial testing of a functional aluminum test model.

Roberts, W. Thomas↗

Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas

Wind and solar energy sources are climate and weather dependent, therefore susceptible to a changing climate. in this paper, we quantify the impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation under high concentrations of greenhouse gases in Texas. We employ mid-twenty-first century climate projections and a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model to generate weather variables in the future and produce wind and solar generation time series. We find that mid-twenty-first century projections based on five global climate models agree on the multiyear average increases across Texas in direct normal irradiance, global horizontal irradiance, surface air temperature, and 100-m wind speed of up to 5%, 4%, 10%, and 1%, respectively. These changes lead to multiyear average relative changes across Texas of -0.6 to + 2.5% and of + 1.3 to + 3.5% in solar and wind capacity factors, respectively, with significant regional, seasonal, and diurnal differences. Areas with low solar resource show an increase in solar capacity factors but reductions in wind capacity factors. Areas with high solar resource show reductions in solar capacity factors. The spatial and temporal differences in our results highlight the importance of using high-resolution data sets to study the potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar power.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Role of Snowmelt Temporal Pattern in Flood Estimation for a Small Snow‐Dominated Basin in the Sierra Nevada

Abstract Prior research confirmed the substantial bias from using precipitation‐based intensity‐duration‐frequency curves (PREC‐IDF) in design flood estimates and proposed next‐generation IDF curves (NG‐IDF) that represent both rainfall and snow processes in runoff generation. This study improves the NG‐IDF technology for a snow‐dominated test basin in the Sierra Nevada. A well‐validated physics‐based hydrologic model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), is used to continuously simulate snowmelt and streamflow that are used as benchmark data sets to systematically assess the NG‐IDF technology. We find that, for the studied small snow‐dominated basin, the use of standard rainfall hyetographs in the NG‐IDF technology leads to substantial underestimation of design floods. Thus, we propose probabilistic hyetographs that can represent unique patterns of events with different underlying mechanisms. For the test basin where flooding events are generated entirely by snowmelt, we develop a hyetograph that characterizes snowmelt temporal patterns, which greatly improves the performance of NG‐IDF technology in design flood estimates. In contrast to the standard rainfall hyetographs characterized by a symmetrically peaked, bell‐shaped curve, the snowmelt hyetograph displays a more rapid rise (i.e., greater intensity) and a distinct diurnal pattern influenced by solar energy input. The results also show that the uncertainty of hyetography plays an important role in design flood estimation and can have important implications for future flood projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fabrication, Modeling, and Testing of a Prototype Thermal Energy Storage Containment

Increasing penetration of variable renewable energy resources requires the deployment of energy storage at a range of durations. Long-duration energy storage (LDES) technologies will fulfill the need to firm variable renewable energy resource output year round; lithium-ion batteries are uneconomical at these durations. Thermal energy storage (TES) is one promising technology for LDES applications because of its siting flexibility and ease of scaling. Particle-based TES systems use low-cost solid particles that have higher temperature limits than the molten salts used in traditional concentrated solar power systems. A key component in particle-based TES systems is the containment silo for the high-temperature (>1100 degrees C) particles. This study combined experimental testing and computational modeling methods to design and characterize the performance of a particle containment silo for LDES applications. A laboratory-scale silo prototype was built and validated the congruent transient finite element analysis (FEA) model. The performance of a commercial-scale silo was then characterized using the validated model. The commercial-scale model predicted a storage efficiency above 95% after 5 days of storage with a design storage temperature of 1200 degrees C. Insulation material and concrete temperature limits were considered as well. The validation of the methodology means the FEA model can simulate a range of scenarios for future applications. This work supports the development of a promising LDES technology with implications for grid-scale electrical energy storage, but also for thermal energy storage for industrial process heating applications.

clean energy↗

Outer planets satellites

The present investigation takes into account the published literature on outer planet satellites for 1979-1982. It is pointed out that all but three (the moon and the two Martian satellites) of the known planetary satellites are found in the outer solar system. Most of these are associated with the three regular satellite systems of Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus. The largest satellites are Titan in the Saturn system and Ganymede and Callisto in the Jupiter system. Intermediate in size between Mercury and Mars, each has a diameter of about 5000 km. Presumably each has an internal composition about 60 percent rock and 40 ice, and each is differentiated with a dense core extending out about 75 percent of the distance to the surface, with a mantle of high-pressure ice and a crust of ordinary ice perhaps 100 km thick. Attention is also given to Io, Europa, the icy satellites of Saturn, the satellites of Uranus, the small satellites of Jupiter and Saturn, Triton and the Pluto system, and plans for future studies.

Morrison, D.↗

An Integrated Economics Model for ISRU in Support of a Mars Colony - Initial Status Report

The aim of this effort is to develop an integrated set of risk-based financial and technical models to evaluate multiple Off-Earth Mining (OEM) scenarios. This quantitative, scenario- and simulation-based tool will help identify combinations of market variables, technical parameters, and policy levers that will enable the expansion of the global economy into the solar system and return economic benefits. Human ventures in space are entering a new phase in which missions formerly driven by government agencies are now being replaced by those led by commercial enterprises - in launch, satellite deployment, resupply of the International Space Station, and space tourism. In the not-too-distant future, commercial opportunities will also include the mining of asteroids, the Moon, and Mars. This investigation will examine the role of OEM in a growing space economy. (In this investigation, the term 'mining' is taken to embrace minerals, ice/water, and other in situ resources.) OEM can be the engine that drives the space economy, so it would be useful to understand what OEM market conditions and technology requirements are needed for that economy to prosper. These specific elements will be studied in the wider context of creating an economy that could ultimately support a sustainable Mars Colony. Such a colony will need in situ resources not only for its own survival, but to prosper and grow, it must create viable business ventures, essentially by fulfilling the demand for in situ resources from and on Mars. This investigation will focus on understanding the role and economic prospect for OEM associated with the Human Colonization of Mars (HCM).

architecture framework↗

The Foundations of Modern Magnetic Reconnection Research

Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental process operating in laboratory, space, and astrophysical plasmas. We understand today that it is the mechanism behind the often explosive release of the stored magnetic energy, and that it directly or indirectly powers as diverse a set of phenomena as solar eruptions, stellar flares, geomagnetic storms, the aurora, and even disruption events in fusion machines. It is also the mechanism powering the majority of the deleterious space effects collectively referred to as “space weather.” Owing to its importance, reconnection has been a research focus for many years, culminating in the research based on NASA’s Magnetospheric Multiscale mission. A major component of foundational research involved studies of the stability and disruption of current sheets by collisionless tearing, which still plays a major role in the dynamical evolution of the interfaces between magnetic fields of different directions. This presentation will illuminate these beginnings, with special focus on the seminal work of Academician A. A. Galeev, and also provide a summary of the present state of knowledge. It will conclude with an outlook toward future reconnection research targets.

Plasma↗

The Interaction of the Solar Wind with Solar Probe Plus - 3D Hybrid Simulation: The Study for the Distance 4.5Rs - Report 1

Our report devotes a 3D numerical hybrid model of the interaction of the solar wind with the Solar Probe spacecraft. The Solar Probe Plus (SPP) model includes 3 main parts, namely, a non-conducting heat shield, a support system, and cylindrical section or spacecraft bus that contains the particle analysis devices and antenna. One observes an excitation of the low frequency Alfven and whistler type wave directed by the magnetic field with an amplitude of about (0.06-0.6) V/m. The compression waves and the jumps in an electric field with an amplitude of about (0.15-0.7) V/m were also observed. The wave amplitudes are comparable to or greater than previously estimated max wave amplitudes that SPP is expected to measure. The results of our hybrid simulation will be useful for understanding the plasma environment near the SPP spacecraft at the distance 4.5 Rs. Future simulation will take into account the charging of the spacecraft, the charge separation effects, an outgassing from heat shield, a photoionization and an electron impact ionization effects near the spacecraft.

Lipatov, Alexander S.↗