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DOE OSTI2024

Asymmetric drift in MaNGA: mass and radially dependent stratification rates in galaxy discs

ABSTRACT We measure the age–velocity relationship from the lag between ionized gas and stellar tangential speeds in ∼500 nearby disc galaxies from MaNGA in Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV (SDSS-IV). Selected galaxies are kinematically axisymmetric. Velocity lags are asymmetric drift, seen in the Milky Way’s (MW) solar neighbourhood and other Local Group galaxies; their amplitude correlates with stellar population age. The trend is qualitatively consistent in rate ($\dot{\sigma }$) with a simple power-law model where σ ∝ tb that explains the dynamical phase-space stratification in the solar neighbourhood. The model is generalized based on disc dynamical times to other radii and other galaxies. We find in-plane radial stratification parameters σ0,r (dispersion of the youngest populations) in the range of 10–40 km s−1 and 0.2 < br < 0.5 for MaNGA galaxies. Overall, brincreases with galaxy mass, decreases with radius for galaxies above 10.4 dex (M⊙) in stellar mass, but is ∼constant with radius at lower mass. The measurement scatter indicates the stratification model is too simple to capture the complexity seen in the data, unsurprising given the many possible astrophysical processes that may lead to stellar population dynamical stratification. None the less, the data show dynamical stratification is broadly present in the galaxy population, with systematic trends in mass and density. The amplitude of the asymmetric drift signal is larger for the MaNGA sample than the MW, and better represented in the mean by what is observed in the discs of M31 and M33. Either typical discs have higher surface-density or, more likely, are dynamically hotter (hence thicker) than the MW.

Bershady, Matthew A. (ORCID:0000000231314374)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Intensified Catalytic Conversion of CO2 into High Value Chemicals

The utilization of CO2 produced from power generation plants as a feedstock for creating new valuable products offers a strategy to reduce GHG emissions, offset carbon capture costs, and facilitate the rebalancing of the carbon cycle. After considering the thermodynamic requirement of potential products from CO2 utilization and their market size, formic acid is a desirable target that offers widespread utility in industrial chemical production and chemical energy storage as a liquid fuel. To effectively utilize CO2 from power generation plants, UK proposes an enhanced bimetallic oxide carbon utilization process (EBOCU) that enables electrochemical CO2 conversion to formic acid. The UK intensified electrocatalytic process combines three main components: 1) a novel bimetallic oxide electrocatalyst; 2) a stable electrochemical reactor using robust electrodes; and 3) a pressurized electrochemical reactor. The output from this project showed the economic viability of producing high-value formic acid from CO2 to both offset the cost associated with post-combustion CCS and reduce GHG emissions. This project developed and screened a series engineered catalysts to selectively reduce CO2 directly to formic acid. The best performing catalyst based on formic acid production, stability, and Faradaic efficiency, was immobilized on carbon electrodes, and tested inside a flow through reactor. After lab-scale testing was completed, the experimental data was used to perform a Life-Cycle Analysis (LCA) and conduct an Initial Technical and Economic Feasibility Study. The LCA showed a pathway to a net negative CO2 utilization process with the incorporation of renewable energy, while the TEA showed the potential to produce formic acid below the current commercial price. The UK EBOCU process was successfully demonstrated at the TRL3 level and has a clear pathway to further development and contribution to the nation’s ambitious decarbonization goals.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A crystal plasticity finite element model embedding strain-rate sensitivities inherent to deformation mechanisms: Application to alloy AZ31

We report the fundamental power-law relationship representing the flow rule in crystal visco-plasticity ensures uniqueness in the selection of slip systems accommodating imposed plastic strain-rates. The power-law relationship also introduces an artificially high strain-rate sensitivity in crystal plasticity simulations, unless a high value of the power-law exponent is used. However, the use of high values for the exponent is limited by numerical tractability. This paper presents a numerical method implemented in a crystal plasticity finite element (CPFE) model for embedding any value of the power-law exponent reflecting the true material strain-rate sensitivity. Importantly, the method does not increase computation time involved in the simulations. The enhanced CPFE model is used to interpret and predict a complex strain-rate sensitive response and microstructural evolution of AZ31 Mg alloy. Measured values of strain-rate sensitivity for slip and twinning modes are used in the simulations. Calculations show that the model successfully captures the phenomena pertaining to the effect of changing applied strain-rate on the mechanical response including flow stress and evolution of texture and twinning for a broad range of strain-rates ranging from 10 -3 s -1 to 10 3 s -1 and loading orientations in tension and compression. It is shown that such predictions are a consequence of not only relative amounts of slip and twinning activities driven by a set of accurately characterized hardening law parameters but also values of the strain-rate sensitivities inherent to individual deformation mechanisms. Besides, the model validates the measured strain-rate dependency of deformation mechanisms while accurately reproducing the mechanical data. Hence, the model can be used to verify and further refine or infer measured strain-rate sensitivity per deformation mechanism by reproducing experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Lossy Compression: An Online Multi-Stage Technology for High-Fidelity Synchro- Waveform Measurements

Effective real-time monitoring and analysis of distributed grids necessitate the use of synchro-waveform measurements, which capture almost all high-frequency disturbances and transient phenomena. However, due to limitations in high-speed measurements and network bandwidth, it is challenging to transfer all high-fidelity synchro-waveforms losslessly and successfully. To cope with these challenges, a hybrid-based online multi-stage compression algorithm is proposed to significantly improve the compression efficiency for synchro-waveform measurements. Initially, the multiple discrete Wavelet transformation is deployed to deconstruct the waveform components. The delta encoding is further developed to decrease the magnitude. In conjunction with the Lempel-Ziv-Markov chain, the hybrid compression algorithm is implemented to achieve real-time compression for the synchro-waveform measurements. Moreover, an innovative error index that synergizes the time and frequency domain error and correlation is formulated to evaluate the waveform distortion. By integrating compression ratio, suitable parameters can be optimally selected. Finally, the simulation, laboratory experiments, as well as field tests across a spectrum of sampling frequencies and time intervals are conducted to substantiate the efficacy of the proposed method. Here, the outcomes demonstrated that a compression ratio of approximately 15.5 and 17.83 can be reached for 0.5 s and 1 s data under both offline and online scenarios, which equates to a substantial 93.5% to 94.39% reduction in data storage requirements.

High-fidelity synchro-waveform measurements↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experimental and Theoretical Evaluation of Feed Flow Collar Design for Shell Fed Hollow Fiber Membrane Modules

An experimental and theoretical study of module collar design is presented here. Hollow fiber membranes are prepared by dip coating a poly(vinylidene) (PVDF) support with a polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) gutter layer and a Pebax 2533 selective layer. Fiber bundles with a well-defined fiber packing are prepared using a 3D printed module. A parallel fiber bundle consisting of 4-9 uniformly spaced fibers is created with printed tabs that align the fibers and create a tubesheet. The tabs are sealed within a printed case that possesses a series of external ports for gas introduction and removal. Uniquely, both port location and the use of a collar to assist fluid distribution in the shell can be varied for the same fiber bundle. Experimental measurements are compared to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations. The experimental module design allows high-fidelity representation of the fiber bundle and module case in the simulations. Comparisons between experiment and simulation are in good agreement over a broad range of experimental conditions. The detrimental effect of having ports located too close, leading to stagnation regions, is captured as well as the beneficial effects of using a collar for shell-side fluid distribution around the fiber bundle. Such results help validate the use of CFD to develop high-performance module designs.

Tran, Thien↗

DOE OSTI2024

Computed Tomography Scanning and Petrophysical Measurements of Eastern Williston Basin Twin Buttes and Hagel Formations

The computed tomography (CT) facilities and the Multi-Sensor Core Logger (MSCL) at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in Morgantown, West Virginia, were used to characterize core from two wells that represent coal resources across North Dakota. These include the MC23080C Well in Mercer County and the 23-B001 Well in Oliver County. The primary impetus of this work was to capture a detailed digital representation of the core from the MC23080C and 23-B001 Wells. The collaboration between the NETL and the Energy and Environment Research Center (EERC) enables other research entities to access information about this potential carbon ore, rare earth, and critical mineral resource plays in the Williston Basin. All equipment and techniques used were non-destructive, enabling future examinations and analyses to be performed on these cores. Fractures, discontinuities, and millimeter-scale features were readily detectable with the medical CT scanner acquired images. Imaging with the NETL medical CT scanner was performed on entire cores. Qualitative analysis of the medical CT images, coupled with X-ray fluorescence (XRF), gamma density, and magnetic susceptibility measurements from the MSCL were useful in identifying zones of interest for potential future analysis. Higher-resolution industrial and micro-CT images were acquired from selected zones along the depth of the core to visualize the structure in higher detail. The ability to quickly identify key areas for more detailed study with higher resolution will save time and resources in future studies. The combination of methods used provides a multi-scale analysis of the core, with the resulting macro- and micro-descriptions relevant to many subsurface energy-related examinations traditionally performed at NETL.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Geothermal Representation in Power System Models

Power system models generally fail to capture the range of characteristics geothermal resources provide and the value they potentially contribute to decarbonization and reliability of future electricity grids as firm, dispatchable, non-combustion power resources. This study reviews the results of power system modeling efforts to investigate geothermal deployment potential in the United States, including the U.S. DOE GeoVision analysis and ongoing modeling and analysis efforts to support planning and development of future grids with 100% renewable energy in California. Several themes are identified that could be implemented immediately to improve the accuracy of geothermal representation in power system models: consistency of model inputs, modeling of baseload and dispatchable geothermal resources, accurate valuation of grid services, improved representation of capacity factor, use of contemporary LCOE estimates, improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value, and use of accurate resource potential constraints. Many of the models reviewed produced significantly different amounts of geothermal resource selection - even when modeling the same region and time period. This highlights the variability of inputs and assumptions among models, so creating a consistent set of geothermal inputs is a first step toward more accurate representation of geothermal in models. Research opportunities are identified that could help improve geothermal data inputs in modeling efforts, including analyses of historical data, sensitivity to model inputs, and comparative value of geothermal generators as baseload or dispatchable resources. Outcomes of such research can inform the geothermal community about how best to guide geothermal development toward wider deployment in support of future electricity grids through improved understanding of the evolution of geothermal value over time and the characteristics that contribute to that value.

capacity expansion models↗

DOE OSTI2020

Balancing Water Sustainability and Productivity Objectives in Microalgae Cultivation: Siting Open Ponds by Considering Seasonal Water-Stress Impact Using AWARE-US

Microalgae have great potential as an energy crop. Scaling-up algal biofuel production in the United States (US) should be done with careful attention to water stress. This study evaluates the regional and seasonal water-stress impact of potential algae-pond deployments in the US. Three site-selection strategies focusing on biomass yield, water-use efficiency (WUE), and water-stress impact, respectively, are applied and compared to meet a US algae biomass production target of 30 million metric tons/yr ash-free dry weight, which converts to 20.8 billion L renewable diesel, via hydrothermal liquefaction. Ranking algae ponds based on biomass yield leads to freshwater consumption of 2.66 km3/yr, resulting in the highest water-stress impact (39.1 US equivalent km3). Under the WUE scenario, water consumption is reduced by 81%, but biomass yield is reduced by 12%. In contrast, adding a water-stress constraint to the biomass-yield ranking reduces water consumption by 50% and water-stress impact by 97%, with a small yield reduction (1.7%). Results show that pond location has a significant effect on water stress and that water stress is not proportional to water consumption or yield. Furthermore, capturing seasonal water patterns is critical for planning because sites in water-abundant regions can have short-term but significant water-stress impacts.

algae, Biofuel, water scarcity footprint, hydrothe↗

DOE OSTI2026

Neural network potentials with effective charge separation for non-equilibrium dynamics of ionic solids: a ZnO case study

Developing neural network potentials (NNPs) accurate under non-equilibrium dynamics is challenging, as such systems require extensive sampling beyond equilibrium phases. Here we construct high-fidelity NNPs for zinc oxide (ZnO), a polymorphic ionic solid, using density functional theory (DFT) reference data. To efficiently capture transitional configurations, we combine enhanced-sampling molecular dynamics with empirical potentials, data distillation, and pretraining on short-range atomic energies (A-Train), followed by transfer learning with DFT-relabeled datasets. This hierarchical approach improves transferability across polymorphs and stress states. We further introduce effective charge separation, treating long-range Coulombic terms analytically while short-range residual interactions are learned by the NNP. The optimal effective charges fall in the range 0.5–1.0 q e , consistent with dielectric-screened values derived from formal charges but distinct from Bader estimates. Motivated by this observation, we propose a simple data-driven protocol in which effective charges are optimized by comparing DFT reference energies with explicit Coulomb calculations, without additional NNP training. This strategy improves accuracy and transferability in DFT-level predictions of energies, forces, and stress. Together, these results provide a practical charge-selection framework for robust NNP development in ionic solids, enabling reliable simulation of polymorphic phase transformations and non-equilibrium dynamics.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electrochemical Reduction of Flue Gas Carbon Dioxide to Commercially Viable C2-C4 Products (Final Report)

This is the final scientific/technical report for a DOE project focused on the electrochemical conversion of CO 2 in non-aqueous solvents to novel products. Electrochemical reduction of CO 2 provides an attractive route to produce valuable fuels and chemicals that can simultaneously lower greenhouse gas emissions when powered by renewable electricity. While recent technological advances have shown the feasibility of industrial CO 2 electroreduction, many challenges remain to improve this technology and expand the list of economically viable products. The vast majority of electrochemical CO 2 reduction research has been conducted in aqueous media under neutral to alkaline conditions, leading to commonly reported products including carbon monoxide, formic acid, methane, methanol, ethylene, acetic acid, and ethanol. In comparison, non-aqueous media for CO 2 reduction has been underexplored but represents a possible avenue to yield new products and improved operating conditions. The aim of the project was to convert waste CO 2 in the form of flue gas to a multicarbon C2 - C4 chemical product in a reactor designed to achieve economically competitive values of current density and selectivity. The project strived to advance the technology readiness of an electrochemical CO 2 reduction process in alcohol solvents from the proof-of-concept stage to a device capable of meeting performance metrics for commercial viability. In the initial plan, the University of Louisville researchers were to focus on investigating the electrochemical process and improving the faradaic efficiency for novel C2 – C4 species, while also working on a parallel effort to build a practical electrolysis reactor to markedly increase the CO 2 reduction current density. The reactor development effort also aimed to engineer a dual-electrolyte feed strategy with non-aqueous catholyte and aqueous anolyte to promote water oxidation as the coupling anodic half-reaction to enable a sustainable and economical overall process. At the outset, the University of North Dakota was to investigate the feasibility of operating directly from coal-derived flue gas without separate capture and purification. The research team sought to determine impurity effects and test mitigation strategies, as well as engineer the gaseous feed system for high reactor tolerance to lower CO 2 concentration. In the last half year of the project, the focus was planned to shift to integrating the advances in the catalysis, electrochemical conditions, reactor design, and flue gas compatibility into a fully functional device and improve it for maximum current density and faradaic efficiency for C2 – C4 species. Knowledge of the full system components, constraints, and maximum performance was then to be used as the basis for a thorough technoeconomic analysis (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA) at the end of the project.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2026

Insights into mixing of non-isothermal multi-polymer melts for complex plastics recycling

Catalytic recycling or upcycling of plastics is often limited not by catalyst performance, but by transport, arising from highly viscous, non-Newtonian polymer melts. In this work, we develop a reactor-scale framework that integrates rheological measurements, constitutive modeling, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), and experiments to quantify mixing, heat transfer, and dispersion in surrogate hydrocarbon melts representing mixed plastics systems. Temperature- and shear rate-dependent viscosity of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) is measured to create two surrogate polymers (PLD and PHD) that capture the dominant shear-thinning flow behavior while neglecting strong elastic effects, enabling tractable simulation of non-isothermal, polymer-melt mixing using a Carreau-Arrhenius generalized Newtonian framework. Three-dimensional CFD simulations are employed to evaluate impeller performance in PLD using mixing time, cavern volume, thermal uniformity, and interfacial area for regimes in which viscoelastic effects are not dominant. We show that magnetic stir bars commonly used in lab-scale studies produce large thermal gradients (~60 °C) and poor mixing, even under idealized power delivery and polymer flow conditions. In contrast, close-clearance anchor impellers achieve near-isothermal operation, reduce mixing times by up to 5×, and provide >90% active circulation volume. We further demonstrate that, at low pseudo-Deborah number (De*), motor power requirements can be predicted directly from shear rate-dependent rheology using the Carreau-Arrhenius framework, enabling rational selection of operating conditions. Extension to surrogate immiscible multi-polymer systems based on PLD and PHD shows that interfacial area is highly sensitive to operating conditions and impeller design, with coaxial anchor-turbine configurations enhancing dispersion by up to 4 × .

Close-clearance impellers↗

DOE OSTI2020

Diversity in Photoprotection and Energy Balancing in Terrestrial and Aquatic Phototrophs

The evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis enabled organisms to use sunlight as an energy source, allowing them to colonize new niches. At the same time, life (as we know it) places severe constraints on photosynthesis. For example, the initial reactions of photosynthesis involve highly energetic intermediates that, if not controlled, can generate highly toxic side products (especially reactive oxygen species, ROS), that can damage other essential components of the organisms it powers. Photosynthesis must therefore be tightly regulated to balance the need for efficient energy conversion with the necessity of avoiding photodamage (Gust D, Kramer D, Moore A, Moore T, Vermaas W, Mater Res Bull 33:383–389, 2008). A related constraint on photosynthesis is the need to precisely balance how much energy is stored in ATP and NADPH to precisely meet biochemical demands. If this balancing does not occur, the system will fail, leading to photodamage (Kramer DM, Evans JR, Plant Physiol 155:70–78, 2011). Consideration of these requirements is essential for efforts to improve the efficiency of photosynthesis by introducing CO 2 concentrating mechanisms, altering metabolism or biosynthetic pathways to shunt energy to alternative products (Kramer DM, Evans JR, Plant Physiol 155:70–78, 2011). These balancing processes must be extremely robust to contend with the rapid and unpredictable fluctuations in environmental conditions and metabolic demands that occur in nature. A large body of work has come from model systems, especially terrestrial higher plants and the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, leading to a model for the regulation of light reactions that involves 1) sensing of the pH gradient component of the thylakoid proton motive force (pmf), and 2) the redox state of the plastoquinone- and stromal pools. Over the short term, these sensors trigger regulation of light capture by altering the activity of ATP synthase leading to adjustments in lumen pH, which fine tunes light capture through nonphotochemical quenching (NPQ) and control of electron flow by adjusting the rate of PQH 2 oxidation at the b 6 f complex. Simultaneously, this system controls the balance of ATP/NADPH by adjusting electron flux to linear and cyclic electron flow pathways to balance ATP/NADPH. This integrated “pmf paradigm” model explains much of the existing data on plants and green algae, but may not extend to other diverse organisms. This review considers how advances in our understanding of photosynthesis over the past 7–8 years, particularly in the discoveries of diverse biochemical/biophysical mechanisms in aquatic photosynthetic species, affects the view of energy balance, including the shunting of electrons to O 2 through the flavodiiron proteins (FLV), the plastid terminal oxidase, the dissipation of electric field by ion movements, and the activation of alternative electron sinks. Furthermore, we will introduce the basic model that has been developed for higher plant chloroplasts, then contrast these with selected aquatic systems, focusing on how the differences impact the needs to re-balance both energy input and its partitioning into energy currencies.

Kanazawa, Atsuko↗

DOE OSTI2025

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - Simulated Wave

The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis, hydrogen compression and storage, and variable hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes hydrogen production using a single, simulated wave energy conversion device. The electrolyzer is a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 system manufactured by Nel Hydrogen. While the unit supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack. For the wave energy, NLR used a wave energy converter model from PacWave. These devices can be equipped with accumulators and pressure relief values to smooth the power output by storing and releasing hydraulic energy. Using a peak power output of 10 MW, the model created two 25-minute profiles: one with and one without the accumulators and pressure relief valves. To down select the profile data from the native resolution of 20 Hz to 1 Hz, NLR took the mean of every 20 data points. NLR experimented with two simulated wave energy power plants: one that peaks at 10 MW, and one that peaks at 5 MW. These profiles were scaled for the physical 1.25 MW electrolyzer by multiplying the original profiles by one eighth and one quarter, respectively. The first profile matches the capacity rating of eight of the 1.25 MW electrolyzers, while the second matches four electrolyzers. Finally, NLR experimented with two settings for the electrolyzer power supply minimum and maximum current ramp rates (gain and slew): 200 and 400 amperes per second. The simulated profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz frequency. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single wave electrolysis experiment and is formatted as follows: {technology}-{accumulator?}_{number of 1.25 MW electrolyzers connected}-{electrolyzer ramp rate in amperes/second} For instance, “wavePacWave-Noacc_4-400.zip” represents the 25 minute-long experiment using the PacWave’s wave energy converter model, equipped with no accumulator, connected to four 1.25-MW electrolyzers with their power supplies set to a maximum current ramp rate (gain and slew) of 400 A/s. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production in kilograms per hour, electrolysis power consumption, and input wave power. An experiment, labeled “characterization_200.zip”, demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30 minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all wave profiles combined into one dataset labeled "combined_wave_experiments.csv". NLR also built an AI/machine-learning predictive model based on these datasets. The model ingests the electrolyzer current command in amperes, as well as various pressures and temperatures across the system, and predicts hydrogen output in kilograms per hour. The complete model can be found at https://huggingface.co/NatLabRockies/ptmelt-hydrogen-electrolysis.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pore size effect on selective gas transport in shale nanopores

In shale gas production, gas composition may vary over time. To understand this phenomenon, we use molecular dynamics simulations to study the permeation of CH 4 , C 2 H 6 and their mixture from a source container through a pyrophyllite nanopore driven by a pressure gradient. For a pure gas, the flow rate of CH 4 is always higher than that of C 2 H 6 , regardless of pore size. For a 1:1 C 2 H 6 : CH 4 mixture, however, C 2 H 6 :CH 4 flow rate ratio is higher than the compositional ratio in the container (i.e., 1:1) when the pore size is smaller than ~1.8 nm. The selective transport is caused by the competitive adsorption of C 2 H 6 over CH 4 in the nanopore. The selectivity is also determined by the interplay between the surface diffusion of the adsorbed molecules and the viscous flow in the center of the pore, and it diminishes as the viscous flow becomes to dominate the surface diffusion when the pore size becomes larger than 1.8 nm. Our work shows that compositional differentiation of shale gas in production is a consequence of nanopore confinement and therefore a key characteristic of an unconventional reservoir. Finally, the related compositional information can potentially be used for monitoring the status of a production well such as its recovery rate.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data

Growing vaccine hesitancy is contributing to the decline in immunization rates for highly contagious, vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. Therefore, there has been a significant interest in understanding how hesitancy is spreading at higher spatio-temporal resolutions, enabling more targeted interventions. Motivated by this, we study the problem of prediction of vaccine hesitancy at the ZIP Code level, referred to as the VaxHesitancy problem. A significant challenge for this problem is the lack of high-resolution data that indicates hesitancy. Here, we develop a hybrid VaxHesSTL framework that combines a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to address the VaxHesitancy problem. The GNN uses a ZIP Code-level network to capture spatial signals from neighboring areas, while the RNN models the temporal dynamics present in the data. We train and evaluate VaxHesSTL using a large dataset, namely the All-Payer Claims Databases (APCD), for Virginia, consisting of insurance claims from over five million individuals for six years. We find that an aggregated contact network or graph, developed from a detailed activity-based population network, plays an important role in the performance of VaxHesSTL, compared to graph models based solely on spatial proximity. Experiments demonstrate that VaxHesSTL outperforms a range of state-of-the-art baselines, which rely solely on historical time series data without accounting for spatial relationships. Since hesitancy data at higher spatial resolution is often unavailable or hard to get, we incorporate an active learning approach with our VaxHesSTL framework to optimize the training set without compromising the prediction performance. We find that hesitancy data for only 18% of ZIP Codes selected by active learning allows us to forecast hesitancy for all the ZIP Codes in the Virginia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Price equation captures the role of drug interactions and collateral effects in the evolution of multidrug resistance

Bacterial adaptation to antibiotic combinations depends on the joint inhibitory effects of the two drugs (drug interaction [DI]) and how resistance to one drug impacts resistance to the other (collateral effects [CE]). Here we model these evolutionary dynamics on two-dimensional phenotype spaces that leverage scaling relations between the drug-response surfaces of drug-sensitive (ancestral) and drug-resistant (mutant) populations. We show that evolved resistance to the component drugs – and in turn, the adaptation of growth rate – is governed by a Price equation whose covariance terms encode geometric features of both the two-drug-response surface (DI) in ancestral cells and the correlations between resistance levels to those drugs (CE). Within this framework, mean evolutionary trajectories reduce to a type of weighted gradient dynamics, with the drug interaction dictating the shape of the underlying landscape and the collateral effects constraining the motion on those landscapes. We also demonstrate how constraints on available mutational pathways can be incorporated into the framework, adding a third key driver of evolution. Our results clarify the complex relationship between drug interactions and collateral effects in multidrug environments and illustrate how specific dosage combinations can shift the weighting of these two effects, leading to different and temporally explicit selective outcomes.

Gjini, Erida↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Performance of Exchange‐Correlation Density Functionals in Describing the Iron‐Catalyzed Ammonia Synthesis System

Density functional theory (DFT) has been widely employed for elucidating mechanistic aspects of heterogeneous catalysis. However, the accuracy of DFT calculations relies heavily on selecting an exchange-correlation (XC) functional that correctly describes the electronic structure of materials involved in the reactions. This study assesses the accuracy of several XC density functionals for modeling the iron-catalyzed ammonia synthesis system. In the assessment of functional accuracy, experimental references are compared to DFT-calculated values for the formation energy of gas-phase ammonia and nitrogen, bulk Fe/Fe-nitride (γ′-Fe 4 N) lattice constants and cohesive/formation energies, and nitrogen and ammonia binding energies on Fe(100), Fe(111), Fe(110), and γ′-Fe 4 N(111). It is observed that the experimental value for each of these descriptors is accurately modeled by at least one functional. RPBE alone provides reliable estimates for both the lattice constant and cohesive energy of Fe and γ′-Fe 4 N. Temperature-programmed desorption experiments led to estimates for N and NH 3 adsorption across several Fe-based facets that are best captured by RPBE. These results highlight the importance of choosing an appropriate XC functional that accurately describes experimental systems and offer insights into effectively modeling the interactions between nitrogen and ammonia on Fe-based surfaces.

adsorption↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sampling and resolution characteristics in reduced order models of shallow water equations: Intrusive vs nonintrusive

We investigate the sensitivity of reduced order models (ROMs) to training data spatial resolution as well as sampling rate. In particular, we consider proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), coupled with Galerkin projection (POD-GP), as an intrusive reduced order modeling technique. For non-intrusive ROMs, we consider two frameworks. The first is using dynamic mode decomposition (DMD), and the second is based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). For ANN, we utilized a residual deep neural network, and for DMD we have studied two versions of DMD approaches; one with hard thresholding and the other with sorted bases selection. Also, we highlight the differences between mean-subtracting the data (centering) and using the data without mean-subtraction. We tested these ROMs using a system of 2D shallow water equations for four different numerical experiments, adopting combinations of sampling rates and spatial resolutions. For these cases, we found that the DMD basis obtained with hard threshodling is sensitive to sampling rate. The sorted DMD algorithm helps to mitigate this problem and yields more stabilized and converging solution. Furthermore, we demonstrate that both DMD approaches without mean subtraction provide significantly more accurate results than DMD with mean-subtracting the data. On the other hand, POD is relatively insensitive to sampling rate and yields better representation of the flow field. Meanwhile, spatial resolution has little effect on both POD and DMD performances. Here, the numerical results reveal that an ANN on POD subspace (POD-ANN) performs remarkably better than POD-GP and DMD in capturing system dynamics, even with a small number of modes.

42 ENGINEERING↗