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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Strong Atmospheric River Responsible for the 2019 Record Floods in the Middle East

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) cause some of the weather-related disasters around the world. While many studies have shown the contribution of ARs to precipitation in the coastal regions such as western Europe and the U.S. West Coast, little is known about their mechanisms and impacts on flooding in the Middle East. This study shows that an AR was responsible for the record floods during March 2019 across the Middle East. Iran in particular was hit hardest with the floods that left a death toll of at least 76 and an early estimate of $2.5 billion (U.S. dollars) damage to its infrastructures. The heavy precipitation produced by this AR made the 2018/19 rainy season the wettest in the past four decades. By contrast, the prior year (2017/18) was the driest over the same period. This is a compelling example of rapid dry-to-wet transitions that may enhance the chance of landslides and impose challenges to water resources management. The AR originated in the Atlantic Ocean and propagated across North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula before its final landfall over the Zagros Mountains. On its nearly 9000 km journey, the AR received additional moisture from the Mediterranean, Red, and Arabian Seas, and the Persian Gulf. Moisture transport by this AR during 24-25 March 2019 is estimated at more than 150times the aggregated discharge of the four major rivers in the region, that is, the Tigris, Euphrates, Karun, and Karkheh. Anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in all surrounding basins and coincidence of a midlatitude system and a subtropical jet provided the necessary ingredients for formation of this strong AR. This work underlines the fact that the impacts of rain-producing ARs are not limited to the coastal regions. Such ARs can travel very long distances away from the oceans and affect remote arid and semi-arid regions like the Middle East. This study examined an individual AR, though one associated with record floods. However, it attempts to draw attention to the need for more AR-related research over the Middle East.

Atmospheric Rivers↗
NASA NTRS2020

Interannual Variability in the Thermal Habitat of Alexandrium catenella in the Bay of Fundy and the Implications of Climate Change

Globally, harmful algal blooms (HABs) are an increasing problem. In the Gulf of Maine and Bay of Fundy, blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella are annually recurrent phenomena. As this region is one of the most rapidly warming areas of the global ocean, an improved understanding of the mechanisms driving the initiation of local A. catenella blooms, their interannual variability and the implications of future climate change is critical to local monitoring strategies and marine resources management. A 27-year (1988–2014) time series of weekly A. catenella cell counts from the Bay of Fundy and concurrent satellite-measured sea surface temperature, freshwater discharge from the St. John River and wind-driven turbulence are compared to assess their relationship to variability in bloom phenology metrics. The mean thermal habitat associated with early detection of A. catenella is 6.5 ± 1.6°C, whereas that of bloom initiation averages 9.2 ± 1.5°C. Both thermal habitats for A. catenella are trending earlier over the study period. Bloom initiations that precede the arrival of the thermal habitat mean (occur in colder water) are associated with higher spring freshwater discharge and are generally weaker blooms. Increased spring freshwater discharge is also associated with earlier bloom initiation and earlier maximum concentration dates. No significant relationship was observed with the strength of wind-driven mixing. Removal of the mean thermal seasonal cycle shows that surface temperature anomalies have a strong negative relationship to the bloom phenology metrics and arrival of thermal habitat: warmer years are linked to earlier arrival of thermal habitats (∼12 days °C–1) and earlier detection and bloom initiation dates (∼33 days °C–1). Using these relationships and present trends in Bay of Fundy surface temperature warming over the period 1982–2019, we project the arrival dates of bloom thermal habitat and bloom phenology metrics out to the middle of this century. Based on current rates of sea surface temperature change, bloom phenology metrics (e.g., bloom initiation, early detection), can be expected to shift 1–2 months earlier in the season by mid-century. Such changes in the phenology of A. catenella blooms will need to be incorporated into both monitoring strategies and forecasting models for the region.

Andre F. Bucci↗
NASA NTRS2021

Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (ATBD) - Stream Stage Measurements: V2.5.1 Water Level Products from Satellite Radar Altimetry

In response to the 2018 NASA ROSES Applied Sciences/Water Resources (NASA HQ Program Official: Dr. Brad Doorn) call for proposals, the “Integration of Remotely Sensed Streamflow Data into Alaska Water Resource Management Agency Operations” project with Principal Investigator (PI) Jack Eggleston USGS, was successful, and had the ultimate goal of creating a series of remotely sensed or derived Alaska river parameters for integration into NWIS. These parameters included surface water height and average reach surface water slope (from altimetry), average reach width (from Landsat imagery), and an associated river discharge derived via theoretical means. The surface water height products were required to have both archival and near real time components, noting the availability of ~25years of potential measurements, and accepting the temporal resolution (10-35days) of the suite of radar altimeters. Each surface water level product was expected to be a continuous time series of observation with a sufficient accuracy to highlight monthly, seasonal and interannual variation. The designated set of river reaches were chosen for their geographical distribution, their reach width, and the presence of a radar altimeter mission satellite overpass. This document describes the procedure associated with the creation of these altimetric surface water level products and is relevant to product Version 2.5.1 available from the Global Water Monitor (GWM) web portal.

Altimetry↗
NASA NTRS2010

Report of the 1st SMAP Applications Workshop

The NASA Earth Science Division has made a commitment to “discover and demonstrate applications that inform resource management, policy development and decision making” (NASA Earth Science Division Applied Sciences Program, Program Strategy, 2010–2015). The NASA mission teams have the opportunity to take a lead role in meeting this challenge. A primary goal of the SMAP mission is to engage SMAP end users and build broad support for SMAP applications through a transparent and inclusive process. Toward this goal, the SMAP mission formed an open-community SMAP Applications Working Group (ApplWG) with over 150 members. The ApplWG held the first SMAP Applications Workshop on September 9–10, 2009, at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Silver Spring, Maryland. Workshop attendees represented state and federal agencies, operational centers focused on natural hazards and disasters, international organizations, and academia. Introductory speakers from NOAA, US Geological Survey (USGS), US Department of Agriculture (USDA), Environment Canada, and US Department of Defense (DoD) addressed applications that included floods and droughts, early famine warning, crop assessments, human health, and defense.

O’Neill, P.↗
NASA NTRS2018

VAMOS: A SmallSat Mission Concept for Remote Sensing of Venusian Seismic Activity from Orbit

The apparent youthfulness of Venus’ surface features, given a lack of plate tectonics, is very intriguing; however, longduration seismic observations are essentially impossible given the inhospitable surface of Venus. The Venus Airglow Measurements and Orbiter for Seismicity (VAMOS) mission concept uses the fact that the dense Venusian atmosphere conducts seismic vibrations from the surface to the airglow layer of the ionosphere, as observed on Earth. Similarly, atmospheric gravity waves have been observed by the European Venus Express’s Visible and Infrared Thermal Imaging Spectrometer (VIRTIS) instrument. Such observations would enable VAMOS to determine the crustal structure and ionospheric variability of Venus without approaching the surface or atmosphere. Equipped with an instrument of modest size and mass, the baseline VAMOS spacecraft is designed to fit within an ESPA Grande form factor and travel to Venus predominantly under its own power. Trade studies have been conducted to determine mission architecture robustness to launch and rideshare opportunities. The VAMOS mission concept was studied at JPL as part of the NASA Planetary Science Deep Space SmallSat Studies (PSDS3) program, which has not only produced a viable and exciting mission concept for a Venus SmallSat, but has also examined many issues facing the development of SmallSats for planetary exploration, such as SmallSat solar electric propulsion, autonomy, telecommunications, and resource management that can be applied to various inner solar system mission architectures.

Wallace, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2020

Advancing Precipitation Estimation, Prediction, and Impact Studies

Precipitation exhibits a large variability over a wide range of space and time scales: from seconds to years and decades in time; from the millimeter scale of microphysical processes to regional and global scales in space. It also exhibits a large variability in magnitude and frequency, from low extremes resulting in prolonged droughts to high extremes resulting in devastating floods. Improving precipitation estimation and prediction has great societal impact for decision support in water resources management, infrastructure protection and design under accelerating climate extremes, quantifying water and energy balances at the regional to global scales, and predicting hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts that affect the economy and security around the world (e.g., Blunden and Arndt, 2019). Yet, despite significant advances in observations and physical understanding, precipitation still remains one of the most challenging variables to model and predict at local, regional and global scales with significant implications for our ability to quantify water and energy cycle dynamics, inform decision making, and predict hydro-geomorphic hazards in response to precipitation extremes (e.g. Maggioni and Massari, 2019).

Efi Foufoula-Georgiou↗
NASA NTRS2021

Chapter 13: Errors and Uncertainties Associated with Quasi-Global Satellite Precipitation Products

Measuring precipitation on a global scale is only possible from satellite platforms. Satellite precipitation estimates are based on geosynchronous infrared sensors on geostationary satellites, characterized by high sampling frequency, and polar-orbiting microwave sensors on low-Earth-orbiting satellites with less-frequent sampling. Assessing satellite product performance is fundamental to infer the reliability of such estimates and effectively use them in water resources management, extreme event characterization, disease control, or weather forecasting. Nevertheless, errors and uncertainties associated with satellite precipitation products are often masked due to temporal and spatial sampling, as well as bias-corrections against a reference dataset. Moreover, the verification of satellite precipitation products is easier over land areas, where rain gauges and ground radars are available as benchmark, but extremely limited over the oceans. Substantial work still remains to better quantify relative and absolute errors and uncertainties within satellite-based precipitation products over land and oceans.

Viviana Maggioni↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using NASA LANCE Near Real-Time Earth Observations for Disaster Risk Reduction

The NASA Earth Science Disasters Program handles requests from stakeholders and provides rapid response for Disaster Risk Reduction using Near Real-Time (NRT) products from NASA’s Land, Atmosphere NRT Capability for Earth Observing System (EOS) (LANCE). The combination of all available LANCE NRT satellite products provides global coverage at multiple times per day, which makes it possible to help users in different phases of the disaster’s life cycle. For wildfires and volcano eruption disasters, LANCE NRT fire and atmosphere products have been used to locate fires and high-temperature heat sources, and to assess the extent of air pollutions. Knowledge of the geographical position and direction of smokes, fires, lava flows provided critical information for disaster prediction and prevention. For hurricanes, tropical cyclones and earthquakes, LANCE global flood products and NASA’s Black Marble night-time light products have been used for monitoring land cover and land use change over time in disaster impacted areas. Users can use pre- and post-disaster maps to assess the extent of damage, and to make decisions for activities in reconstruction and recovery in infrastructure and health on the ground. LANCE NRT data are made available through the Earth data website and have been archived and visualized in NASA Disasters Mapping Portal, NASA LANCE Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) and NASA Worldview for the use of stakeholders.

Tian Yao↗
NASA NTRS2022

Linkages Between GRACE Water Storage, Hydrologic Extremes, and Climate Teleconnections in Major African Aquifers

Water resources management is a critical issue in Africa where many regions are subjected to sequential droughts and floods. The objective of our work was to assess spatiotemporal variability in water storage and related controls (climate, human intervention) in major African aquifers and consider approaches toward more sustainable development. Different approaches were used to track water storage, including GRACE/GRACE Follow On satellites for Total Water Storage (TWS); satellite altimetry for reservoir storage, MODIS satellites for vegetation indices, and limited ground-based monitoring. Results show that declining trends in TWS (60–73 km3 over the 18 yr GRACE record) were restricted to aquifers in northern Africa, controlled primarily by irrigation water use in the Nubian and NW Saharan aquifers. Rising TWS trends were found in aquifers in western Africa (23–49 km3), attributed to increased recharge from land use change and cropland expansion. Interannual variability dominated TWS variability in eastern and southern Africa, controlled primarily by climate extremes. Climate teleconnections, particularly El Nino Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole, strongly controlled droughts and floods in eastern and southern Africa. Huge aquifer storage in northern Africa suggests that the recent decadal storage declines should not impact the regional aquifers but may affect local conditions. Increasing groundwater levels in western Africa will need to be managed because of locally rising groundwater flooding. More climate resilient water management can be accomplished in eastern and southern Africa by storing water from wet to dry climate cycles. Accessing the natural water storage provided by aquifers in Africa is the obvious way to manage the variability between droughts and floods.

Africa water storage↗
NASA NTRS2018

Performance Metrics for the Assessment of Satellite Data Products: An Ocean Color Case Study

Performance assessment of ocean color satellite data has generally relied on statistical metrics chosen for their common usage and the rationale for selecting certain metrics is infrequently explained. Commonly reported statistics based on mean squared errors, such as the coefficient of determination (r2), root mean square error, and regression slopes, are most appropriate for Gaussian distributions without outliers and, therefore, are often not ideal for ocean color algorithm performance assessment, which is often limited by sample availability. In contrast, metrics based on simple deviations, such as bias and mean absolute error, as well as pair-wise comparisons, often provide more robust and straightforward quantities for evaluating ocean color algorithms with non-Gaussian distributions and outliers. This study uses a SeaWiFS chlorophyll-a validation data set to demonstrate a framework for satellite data product assessment and recommends a multimetric and user-dependent approach that can be applied within science, modeling, and resource management communities.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Oregon Wildfires: Integrating ECOSTRESS to Map & Analyze Vegetation Moisture for Wildfire Modeling

Wildfire season in the western USA is starting earlier and gaining in intensity. The Bootleg Fire in Southern Oregon began on July 6th, 2021, and burned over 1675 km2 before it was fully contained on August 15th, 2021. Evapotranspiration (ET) is one indicator of vegetation moisture and there is interest in using high-resolution ET products from ECOsystem and Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) in future wildfire modeling. In partnership with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and US Forest Service, the team examined ECOSTRESS ET for the two years before the Bootleg Fire and assessed the relationship between ET, topography, and vegetation. Remotely sensed data from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) along with ancillary data from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and Landscape Fire Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) were incorporated. The team examined data in relation to soil burn severity from the Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) program. From ET median composites for April 1st – July 5th, 2021 and 2019, the Bootleg Fire area showed a 7 mm/day decrease in ET and a relative 75% decrease in ET between 2019 and 2021. Approximately 6% of the Bootleg Fire area was identified as having a high soil burn severity and these areas were found predominantly in the evergreen forest land cover class and northward facing slopes with a mean ET decrease of 3 mm/day between 2019 and 2021. The team also analyzed ECOSTRESS Water Use Efficiency products as an additional vegetation moisture indicator of pre-fire conditions in the study area. The end products will allow the partners to assess if higher resolution vegetation moisture datasets from ECOSTRESS will improve wildfire modeling for other susceptible areas.

Brenna Hatch↗
NASA NTRS2022

Analyzing Recharge Dynamics and Storage in a Thick, Karstic Vadose Zone

Karst vadose zone heterogeneity creates complex transmission and storage dynamics that affect the timing and magnitude of aquifer recharge. Young, high-matrix permeability eogenetic karst aquifers may have significantly higher matrix storage than older, lower matrix permeability counterparts. In vulnerable and water-limited karst regions, the timescales of storage may be important for seasonal and sub-seasonal water resource management. We create a framework to quantify storage dynamics in karst aquifers using high-resolution precipitation and groundwater levels from the Northern Guam Lens Aquifer in the US territory of Guam. We estimate recharge using the Water Table Fluctuation method, and then develop transfer functions between precipitation and recharge to quantify storage and release of water from the vadose zone. The transfer functions are partitioned into different flow pathways including conduit, conduit/matrix, and slowly draining matrix. Probability distributions are fit to each pathway to determine the average travel times of infiltrated waters. The results show that aquifer recharge through secondary porosity features typically occurs within a few hours of a rainfall event, but this rapid recharge accounts for only 12%–28% of total recharge. The majority of aquifer recharge (>70%) occurs within a month of a contributing storm event. An additional 10% of recharge, on average, took longer than a month to reach the water table. The framework established can help improve the hydrological modeling and freshwater management for karst aquifers.

Patricia Spellman↗
NASA NTRS2022

Western Sonoran Desert Water Resources: Evaluating Rock Pool Hydroperiod Fluctuation using Climate Variables to Inform Habitat Monitoring and Protection in the Western Sonoran Desert

Ephemeral freshwater rock pools, known as tinajas, have great biologic and cultural importance as sources of surface water in the western Sonoran Desert (WSD). Tinaja flooding and drying cycles, known as hydroperiods, vary based on meteorologic and climatologic conditions; however, a lack of extensive research relating climatic impacts to tinajas puts these critical ecosystems further at risk. The National Park Service (NPS) and the University of Arizona monitor the physical and ecological condition of tinajas in Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument (OPCNM), AZ, using resource-intensive strategies: in situ trail cameras and direct measurements. To aid monitoring efforts, the NASA DEVELOP team aimed to incorporate remote sensing into NPS strategies by analyzing spatiotemporal climate data and tinaja hydroperiods in OPCNM between 1979–2022. Using Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometers (MODIS), University of Idaho Gridded Surface Meteorological Dataset (gridMET), and OpenET data, the team generated climatology maps and time series for OPCNM. The team compared these data to daily in situ hydroperiod observations from the University of Arizona between 2019–2022. Climate maps and time series showed increases in temperature and solar radiation (p<0.05), while analyses of in situ data showed correlations of hydroperiods with precipitation and evapotranspiration. End products identified high-risk tinajas and demonstrated that Earth observations can successfully be correlated with in situ hydroperiod observations. These results will support NPS efforts to prioritize water resource management and inform protocols driving the conservation of tinajas in OPCNM.

Anne Britton↗
NASA NTRS2022

Summary of the 5th GWIS & GOFC-GOLD Fire Implementation Team Meeting

The 5th joint Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS) and Global Observation of Forest and Land Use Dynamics (GOFC-GOLD) – Fire Mapping and Monitoring Implementation Team (FireIT) was held on 21-23rd June 2022, at Stresa, Italy. Thirty researchers from academia, government, and non-government organizations participated in the meeting, the majority in person (Figure 1) and several online. The meeting’s goals were to review recent progress made by the GWIS and the GOFC Fire-IT, discuss recent developments in fire science and technology, and determine the prospects for satellite-based fire monitoring and science in the context of forest and natural resource management and other applications. The joint meeting was aimed to building collaboration and cooperation amongst the international fire remote sensing community. After a brief background on GWIS-GOFC-GOLD Fire-IT, this article summarizes the latest updates on the various fire thematic areas presented by the attendees. The full presentations are available at https://gofcgold.org/meetings/5th-gofc-gold-fire-it-and-global-wildfire-information-systemgwis

Fires↗
NASA NTRS2022

NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement Mission: Leveraging Stakeholder Engagement & Applications Activities to Inform Decision-making

The application of satellite precipitation estimates from NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission for decision-making has been a focus for the mission since launch. As a result, GPM data have enabled a range of applications that address societal needs, including water resource management, crop forecasting, ecological monitoring, disaster response, public health, aviation, weather forecasting, and climate modeling, among others. GPM applications activities have continued to focus on user engagement through in person trainings and interviews, workshops, webinars, and educational outreach activities. The goals of these efforts are to synthesize community data needs in order to effectively support and enable decision-making across agencies, academia and the global community. While these efforts have helped the GPM mission establish a large stakeholder community that encompasses federal and state partners, academic institutions, nd private and nonprofit companies, there remains difficulties associated with accessing, processing, and applying the data to support or enable applications. In this article, we present GPM applications strategies and approaches used to enhance the applications value of GPM data, and most importantly, demonstrate how these efforts have and can inform different decision-making contexts. This work also provides a discussion on key lessons learned from the user community and how this information can be utilized to help better support and shape applications approaches for future NASA Earth Science missions.

Satellite precipitation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Student Airborne Science Activation for Minority Serving Institutions: Inaugural Program, Educational Outcomes, and Lessons Learned

The NASA Student Airborne Science Activation (SaSa) for Minority Serving Institutions (MSIs) held its inaugural summer research program for early career undergraduates interested in the Geosciences. SaSa is a NASA Science Activation funded 8-week summer internship program. Twenty-four first- and second-year undergraduates from MSIs across the U.S. participated in the summer program - June 6 to July 29, 2022. Students had the opportunity to gain hands-on research experience in all components of an airborne science campaign including flying on-board a NASA research aircraft to collect atmospheric measurements. Students conducted independent research projects related to the atmosphere, ocean, and geosciences that feed into NASA’s broader Earth Science Division’s and Decadal Survey goals using air quality, meteorological, and oceanic measurements from surface, airborne, and satellite-based observations. The program split its time between partner institution, University of Maryland Baltimore County and NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility in Wallops Island, Virginia. Students also made site visits at partner institutions, including: Hampton University, University of Maryland Eastern Shore, Morgan State University, Howard University, and Coppin State University and attended lectures from visiting faculty and NASA Subject Matter Experts. Students were guided on their research projects by near-peer graduate mentors, SaSa program leadership, co-Is at partner institutions, and NASA scientists to address two major research themes: 1) how human-caused air pollution has human and environmental implications, and 2) how large-scale meteorological factors influence local weather conditions. Students sorted into research groups, based on sub-discipline areas in the Geosciences, including: “Clouds, Aerosols and Radiation”, “Meteorology and Planetary Boundary Layer”, “Air Quality: Particle Pollution and Trace Gases”, and “Air-Water-Land Interface”. Their research was presented as 3-minute lightning talks and in-person poster presentations at a close-out event at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. The students’ inter- and trans-disciplinary research experiences centered in the use of multiple ground, airborne, and satellite remote sensing NASA Earth Science Division assets. Providing a unique experience aligned to recognize the societal benefits that NASA contributes in the areas of resource management, air quality monitoring and policy decisions, energy and weather predictions, and research on the Earth’s climate. The SaSa program aims to increase the number of students from MSIs that identify as underrepresented or underserved individuals in the Geosciences discipline, Earth System Science graduate programs, and the NASA workforce. A summary of the summer research program, educational, scientific, and programmatic outcomes, as well as lessons learned will be presented.

NASA↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The NASA DEVELOP Model: Multidisciplinary Teams Conduct Interdisciplinary Projects to Produce Transdisciplinary Outcomes

The DEVELOP Program, part of NASA’s Earth Applied Sciences’ Capacity Building Program, conducts 50-70 feasibility studies each year that utilize Earth observations to address local decision-making challenges and help inform action. DEVELOP uses these projects as the mechanism to build skills in its participants and partner organizations to assess and apply satellite data insights to environmental decision-making processes. While organized by thematic focus (ex. water resource management, ecological forecasting, disaster management), projects use a multidisciplinary team approach with teams of students, recent graduates, early career professionals, and transitioning career professionals, bringing different disciplines, life experience, and perspectives to execute projects that have been collaboratively designed with end-user partner organizations (federal agencies, state and local governments, non-profit and for-profit organizations, and international organizations). Projects are interdisciplinary in nature as they integrate methods from multiple disciplines, with a focus on the incorporation of satellite data with other data sources such as socioeconomic and demographic data, in situ measurements, model outputs, and partners’ knowledge, and take place under the guidance of science advisors from NASA, academia, and other partner organizations. The culmination of these multidisciplinary teams working on projects that draw from interdisciplinary methods and approaches, is a transdisciplinary solution for the partner organizations to explore further for potential adoption. This presentation will highlight the DEVELOP model of co-production and collaboration, lessons learned integrating people and project methodologies, and impact assessment activities surrounding the program’s efforts.

Capacity Building↗
NASA NTRS2022

Arizona Water Resources Ii: Utilizing Aerial Imagery and Nasa Earth Observations to Assess Pinyon-Juniper Tree Mortality in Flagstaff, AZ

Pinyon-juniper woodlands (PJW) provide critical and resilient habitat for the local mammal and small bird species of Arizona's northern xeric environment. Drought in Arizona has been persistent for many decades, yet in 2021 PJW experienced a mass tree mortality event at the Wupatki National Monument (WNM) and in other areas across the American Southwest. Previously, researchers at the National Park Service (NPS) and the team from the NASA DEVELOP National Program attempted to quantify the extent of mortality in Northern Arizona between 2015 and 2021 using high resolution National Agricultural Imagery Program (NAIP) aerial photographs. This project aimed to improve the previous term’s methodology and expanded the comparison of the post-mortality event in 2021 to include tree cover assessments for 2017 and 2019. In this iteration, the team utilized NAIP imagery in conjunction with Landscape Fire and Resource Management Planning Tools (LANDFIRE) to calculate the total difference in PJW mortality using an unsupervised classification model trained from multi-date Modified Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) and the Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) data for the study area. The research also assessed correlations between tree mortality and environmental factors using Western Land Data Assimilation System (WLDAS) modelled climate data. Average PJW mortality from 2015 to 2021 was 21.63% including 19.8% in WNM with the vast majority of dieback occurring between 2019 and 2021. The correlations were weak with the most correlated variables being bare soil evaporation (0.15), rainfall (0.14), groundwater storage (0.13), and wind speed (0.12), perhaps indicating drought as a likely driver of PJW mortality.

pinyon-juniper woodlands↗