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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Modeling household online shopping demand in the U.S.: a machine learning approach and comparative investigation between 2009 and 2017

Despite the rapid growth of online shopping and research interest in the relationship between online and in-store shopping, national-level modeling and investigation of the demand for online shopping with a prediction focus remain limited in the literature. Here, this paper differs from prior work and leverages two recent releases of the U.S. National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data for 2009 and 2017 to develop machine learning (ML) models, specifically gradient boosting machine (GBM), for predicting household-level online shopping purchases. The NHTS data allow for not only conducting nationwide investigation but also at the level of households, which is more appropriate than at the individual level given the connected consumption and shopping needs of members in a household. We follow a systematic procedure for model development including employing Recursive Feature Elimination algorithm to select input variables (features) in order to reduce the risk of model overfitting and increase model explainability. Among several ML models, GBM is found to yield the best prediction accuracy. Extensive post-modeling investigation is conducted in a comparative manner between 2009 and 2017, including quantifying the importance of each input variable in predicting online shopping demand, and characterizing value-dependent relationships between demand and the input variables. In doing so, two latest advances in machine learning techniques, namely Shapley value-based feature importance and Accumulated Local Effects plots, are adopted to overcome inherent drawbacks of the popular techniques in current ML modeling. The modeling and investigation are performed at the national level, with a number of findings obtained. The models developed and insights gained can be used for online shopping-related freight demand generation and may also be considered for evaluating the potential impact of relevant policies on online shopping demand.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Utilizing a Common Model Architecture for the Simulation of On-Orbit Human Spaceflight Operations

Advances in computing and simulation technology during the 1980 s promoted the development of multiple simulations for on-orbit human spaceflight operations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Johnson Space Center (JSC). By the late 1980 s, it became increasingly clear that redundancy risked leading to inefficiencies in dissemination and incorporation of models across simulations, institutional organizations, and spaceflight programs. Software development tools, such as the Trick Simulation Environment, began to emerge providing a generalized framework for the development, integration, and operation of simulations. Throughout the 1990s, engineering, operations, and training simulations began to migrate to Trick in order to take advantage of a common simulation environment. Due to forecasted reductions in funding to the Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) programs in the early 2000s, the common framework that arose from this simulation migration was formalized as the Common Model Architecture (CMA). The CMA was established in order to further reduce redundancy, while promoting model sharing and enhancing model integrity. A minimal set of standards for data flows, functional interactions, and model organization based on Trick were defined for those features found to be most important in facilitating model interaction. Model-providing organizations within NASA JSC took ownership of models for their specific areas of expertise, and agreements were reached on common model sharing and usage. This paper describes the evolution of commonality enabled by the Trick Simulation Environment at JSC leading to the CMA, the standards defined by the CMA, a recent CMA simulation example, and potential application of the CMA to NASA s new Exploration program.

Leslie J Quiocho↗

Evaluation of pressure reconstruction techniques for Model Order Reduction in incompressible convective heat transfer

This paper compares pressure reconstruction strategies in Model Order Reduction for incompressible flows with convective heat transfer. The Navier-Stokes equation are reduced along with the passive scalar transport equation for the temperature using the POD-Galerkin technique. Six different pressure reconstruction methods are evaluated, two of which are novel to the best of the authors’ knowledge. Accurate pressure reconstruction is key to avoid error buildup in when solving for the conservation of linear momentum at the reduced level. The six approaches are compared using Direct Numerical Simulations of convective heat exchange processes in a 3D Backward Facing Step with a heated cylinder. Additionally, when comparing time-averaged metrics, we observe that the reconstruction methods that approximate the reduced pressure field using techniques borrowed from full order models (mechanical analogy, pressure Poisson, and velocity supremizers) yield higher errors than the methods that seek to stabilize the reduced systems (reduced residual stabilization, artificial divergence, and Uzawa operator).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Co-optimized machine-learned manifold models for large eddy simulation of turbulent combustion

Many modeling approaches in large eddy simulation (LES) of turbulent combustion employ a projection of the thermochemical state onto a low-dimensional manifold within state space to reduce the number of transported variables and hence computational cost. Flamelet-generated manifolds (FGM) is an example of a well-established, physics-based approach, but increasingly, principal component analysis (PCA) is being used as a data-driven method for generating manifold models. For both approaches, the nonlinear relationship between the location on the predefined manifold and the outputs of interest, such as reaction rates, can be tabulated or encoded in a neural network. This work proposes a new approach for manifold modeling that extends these existing approaches. A modified neural network structure simultaneously encodes the definition of the manifold variables, the nonlinear mapping, and the subfilter closure for LES. This allows all three of these aspects of the model to be co-optimized, generating a model from any source of combustion thermochemical state data. The manifold parameterizing variables are constrained to be linear combinations of species, as in FGM and PCA-based models, to aid in interpretability and implementation. For LES, subfilter variances of the manifold variables are also included as inputs. Two types of a priori analysis are performed to evaluate the new approach. In the first, the model is trained on data from one-dimensional premixed flames. In this case, the approach recovers the behavior of flamelet-based manifold approaches, and in fact slightly improves performance by identifying an optimized progress variable. The approach is also applied to data from direct numerical simulations of spherical ignition kernels in isotropic turbulence. For any specified manifold dimensionality, the new approach provides substantially lower prediction errors than a PCA-based model developed from the same data set. Additionally, the LES formulation of the new approach can provide accurate predictions for filtered reaction rates across a variety of filter widths.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Reduction Of Sizes Of Semi-Markov Reliability Models

Trimming technique reduces computational effort by order of magnitude while introducing negligible error. Error bound depends on only three parameters from semi-Markov model: maximum sum of rates for failure transitions leaving any state, maximum average holding time for recovery-mode state, and operating time for system. Error bound computed before any model generated, enabling modeler to decide immediately whether or not model can be trimmed. Trimming procedure specified by precise and easy description, making it easy to include trimming procedure in program generating mathematical models for use in assessing reliability. Typical application of technique in design of digital control systems required to be extremely reliable. In addition to aerospace applications, fault-tolerant design has growing importance in wide range of industrial applications.

White, Allan L.↗

The Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity for Prediction of the Coupled Indo-Pacific System

We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as on dynamical ENSO forecasts. Our coupled model is composed of a primitive equation ocean model for the tropical Indo-Pacific region that is coupled with the global SPEEDY atmospheric model (Molteni, 2003). The Ensemble Reduced Order Kalman Filter is used to assimilate observations to constrain dynamics and thermodynamics for initialization of the coupled model. The baseline experiment assimilates satellite sea level, SST, and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations. This baseline is then compared with experiments that additionally assimilate Aquarius (version 4.0) and SMAP (version 2.0) SSS. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from Sep. 2011 to Dec. 2016. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves NINO 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation after 1 out to 12 month forecast lead times. For initialization of the coupled forecast, the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10 degrees South latitude-5 degrees North latitude. SST differences at initialization force wide-spread downwelling favorable curl over most of the tropical Pacific. Over an average forecast, SST remains warmer with SSS assimilation at the eastern edge of the warm pool. This warm SST propagates into the eastern Pacific and drags westerly wind anomalies eastward into the NINO 3.4 region. In addition, salting near the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) leads to a deepening of the mixed layer and thermocline near 8 degrees North latitude. These patterns together lead to a funneling effect that provides the background state to amplify equatorial Kelvin waves. We show that the downwelling Kelvin waves are amplified by assimilating satellite SSS and lead to significantly improved forecasts particularly for the 2015 El Nino.

El Nino↗

The Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity for Prediction of the Coupled Indo-Pacific System

We assess the impact of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) observations on seasonal to interannual variability of tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean dynamics as well as on dynamical ENSO forecasts. Our coupled model is composed of a primitive equation ocean model for the tropical Indo-Pacific region that is coupled with the global SPEEDY atmospheric model (Molteni, 2003). The Ensemble Reduced Order Kalman Filter is used to assimilate observations to constrain dynamics and thermodynamics for initialization of the coupled model. The baseline experiment assimilates satellite sea level, SST, and in situ subsurface temperature and salinity observations. This baseline is then compared with experiments that additionally assimilate Aquarius (version 4.0) and SMAP (version 2.0) SSS. Twelve-month forecasts are initialized for each month from Sep. 2011 to Dec. 2016. We find that including satellite SSS significantly improves NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly validation after 1 out to 12 month forecast lead times. For initialization of the coupled forecast, the positive impact of SSS assimilation is brought about by surface freshening near the eastern edge of the western Pacific warm pool and density changes that lead to shallower mixed layer between 10S-5N. SST differences at initialization force wide-spread downwelling favorable curl over most of the tropical Pacific. Over an average forecast, SST remains warmer with SSS assimilation at the eastern edge of the warm pool. This warm SST propagates into the eastern Pacific and drags westerly wind anomalies eastward into the NINO3.4 region. In addition, salting near the ITCZ leads to a deepening of the mixed layer and thermocline near 8N. These patterns together lead to a funneling effect that provides the background state to amplify equatorial Kelvin waves. We show that the downwelling Kelvin waves are amplified by assimilating satellite SSS and lead to significantly improved forecasts particularly for the 2015 El Nino.

SST↗

Self-Secure Inverters Against Malicious Setpoints

The next generation of grid-interactive inverters brings a communication feature that allows data sharing from utility supervisory controllers and smart devices that are connected to the same network. This feature enhances the control capabilities of grid-interactive inverters to provide services beyond active power injection. However, communication networks entail more vulnerable surfaces to malicious attacks that may result in modifying active and reactive power setpoints and causing weak-grid conditions or abnormal inverter operation. In this paper, steady-state and the dynamic behavior of the inverter for the incoming setpoints are analyzed to detect false data injection attacks and provide device-level security. The steady-state behavior of the inverter in the operating region is determined from the grid parameters such as the grid voltage and the grid impedance. These estimations are accomplished by the proposed self-security technique through a low-frequency signal injection-based approach combined with the recursive least square method. Moreover, a reduced fourth-order inverter model is used as the dynamic reference model, and grid parameters as well as the incoming setpoints are implemented to the reference model to verify whether the dynamic behavior of the inverter is inside the permissible region of operation. The validity and performance of the proposed method are verified experimentally through Allen-Bradley Powerflex 755 three-phase inverter and a 12 kW NHR 9410 regenerative power grid emulator. The results show that the self-secure smart-inverter is able to accept or reject the incoming commands and thus is protected from malicious cyber-physical attacks.

Hossen, Tareq↗

Computationally Efficient Control Co-Design Optimization Framework with Mixed-Fidelity Fluid and Structure Analysis: OpenTurbineCoDe (OTCD) - ARPA-E ATLANTIS Phase I Project (Final Technical Report)

The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Aerodynamic Turbines Lighter and Afloat with Nautical Technologies and Integrated Servo-control (ATLANTIS) Program is to develop new technologies for floating offshore wind turbines, or wind farms, using the discipline of control co-design (CCD.) In this context, our goal is to develop a computationally efficient optimization framework for design of floating offshore wind turbines. Our specific aim is to utilize high-fidelity structural, aerodynamic, aero-structural tools, and to derive control-oriented reduced- or low-order models directly from the high-fidelity tools. We proposed a mixed-fidelity modeling approach which means that we are also using low- and mid-fidelity tools when necessary. This research is conducted by a multidisciplinary team consisting of Rutgers University, University of Michigan, Brigham Young University, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The computational framework, called OpenTurbineCoDe, is designed to integrate, where possible, traditional structural, aerodynamic, aeroelastic models (e.g., OpenFAST) and advanced control algorithms with higher fidelity simulation tools including Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) solvers, and three-dimensional structural finite element solvers. All the high-fidelity tools used in this research provide numerically exact gradients to facilitate both efficient optimization and local linearization for control implementation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Precision pointing compensation for DSN antennas with optical distance measuring sensors

The pointing control loops of Deep Space Network (DSN) antennas do not account for unmodeled deflections of the primary and secondary reflectors. As a result, structural distortions due to unpredictable environmental loads can result in uncompensated boresight shifts which degrade pointing accuracy. The design proposed here can provide real-time bias commands to the pointing control system to compensate for environmental effects on pointing performance. The bias commands can be computed in real time from optically measured deflections at a number of points on the primary and secondary reflectors. Computer simulations with a reduced-order finite-element model of a DSN antenna validate the concept and lead to a proposed design by which a ten-to-one reduction in pointing uncertainty can be achieved under nominal uncertainty conditions.

Scheid, R. E.↗

Wavelet and Multiresolution Analysis for Finite Element Networking Paradigms

This paper presents a final report on Wavelet and Multiresolution Analysis for Finite Element Networking Paradigms. The focus of this research is to derive and implement: 1) Wavelet based methodologies for the compression, transmission, decoding, and visualization of three dimensional finite element geometry and simulation data in a network environment; 2) methodologies for interactive algorithm monitoring and tracking in computational mechanics; and 3) Methodologies for interactive algorithm steering for the acceleration of large scale finite element simulations. Also included in this report are appendices describing the derivation of wavelet based Particle Image Velocity algorithms and reduced order input-output models for nonlinear systems by utilizing wavelet approximations.

Kurdila, Andrew J.↗

Lanczos modes for reduced-order control of flexible structures

Lanczos mode models represent low-frequency forced response better than do normal mode models and can be developed for both continuous and finite element structural representations. It was recommended that Lanczos mode models for systems with multiple input and/or rigid body modes should be developed; numerical stability of the Lanczos algorithm should be assessed; and control system designs employing the Lanczos mode models should be attempted.

Craig, Roy R., Jr.↗

Assessing time-dependent temperature profile predictions using reduced transport models for high performing NSTX plasmas

Time-dependent, predictive simulations were performed with the 1.5D tokamak integrated modeling code TRANSP on a large set of well-analyzed, high performing discharges from the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) in order to evaluate how well modern reduced transport models can reproduce experimentally observed temperature profiles in spherical tokamaks. Overall, it is found that simulations using the Multi-Mode Model (MMM) more consistently agree with the NSTX observations than those using the Trapped Gyro-Landau Fluid (TGLF) model, despite TGLF requiring orders of magnitude greater computational cost. When considering all examined discharges, MMM has median overpredictions of electron temperature (T e ) and ion temperature (T i ) profiles of 28% and 27%, respectively, relative to the experiment. TGLF overpredicts T e by 46%, with much larger variance than MMM, and underpredicts T i by 25%. As the ratio of kinetic to magnetic field pressure (β) is increased across NSTX discharges, TGLF predicts lower T e and significant flattening of the T i profile, conflicting with NSTX observations. When using an electrostatic version of TGLF, both T e and T i are substantially overpredicted, underscoring the importance of electromagnetic turbulence in the high β spherical tokamak regime. Additionally, calculations with neural net surrogate models for TGLF were performed outside of TRANSP with a time slice flux matching transport solver, finding better agreement with experiment than the TRANSP simulations, highlighting the impact of different transport solvers and simulation techniques. Furthermore, the reasonable agreement with experiment of temperature profiles predicted by MMM motivates a more detailed examination of the sensitivities of the TRANSP simulations with MMM to different NSTX plasma regimes in a companion paper (Lestz et al Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 67 105030), in preparation for self-consistent, time-dependent predictive modeling of NSTX-U scenarios.

Lestz, J. B. [General Atomics, San Diego, CA (Unit↗

Constructing an Efficient Self-Tuning Aircraft Engine Model for Control and Health Management Applications

Self-tuning aircraft engine models can be applied for control and health management applications. The self-tuning feature of these models minimizes the mismatch between any given engine and the underlying engineering model describing an engine family. This paper provides details of the construction of a self-tuning engine model centered on a piecewise linear Kalman filter design. Starting from a nonlinear transient aerothermal model, a piecewise linear representation is first extracted. The linearization procedure creates a database of trim vectors and state-space matrices that are subsequently scheduled for interpolation based on engine operating point. A series of steady-state Kalman gains can next be constructed from a reduced-order form of the piecewise linear model. Reduction of the piecewise linear model to an observable dimension with respect to available sensed engine measurements can be achieved using either a subset or an optimal linear combination of "health" parameters, which describe engine performance. The resulting piecewise linear Kalman filter is then implemented for faster-than-real-time processing of sensed engine measurements, generating outputs appropriate for trending engine performance, estimating both measured and unmeasured parameters for control purposes, and performing on-board gas-path fault diagnostics. Computational efficiency is achieved by designing multidimensional interpolation algorithms that exploit the shared scheduling of multiple trim vectors and system matrices. An example application illustrates the accuracy of a self-tuning piecewise linear Kalman filter model when applied to a nonlinear turbofan engine simulation. Additional discussions focus on the issue of transient response accuracy and the advantages of a piecewise linear Kalman filter in the context of validation and verification. The techniques described provide a framework for constructing efficient self-tuning aircraft engine models from complex nonlinear simulations.Self-tuning aircraft engine models can be applied for control and health management applications. The self-tuning feature of these models minimizes the mismatch between any given engine and the underlying engineering model describing an engine family. This paper provides details of the construction of a self-tuning engine model centered on a piecewise linear Kalman filter design. Starting from a nonlinear transient aerothermal model, a piecewise linear representation is first extracted. The linearization procedure creates a database of trim vectors and state-space matrices that are subsequently scheduled for interpolation based on engine operating point. A series of steady-state Kalman gains can next be constructed from a reduced-order form of the piecewise linear model. Reduction of the piecewise linear model to an observable dimension with respect to available sensed engine measurements can be achieved using either a subset or an optimal linear combination of "health" parameters, which describe engine performance. The resulting piecewise linear Kalman filter is then implemented for faster-than-real-time processing of sensed engine measurements, generating outputs appropriate for trending engine performance, estimating both measured and unmeasured parameters for control purposes, and performing on-board gas-path fault diagnostics. Computational efficiency is achieved by designing multidimensional interpolation algorithms that exploit the shared scheduling of multiple trim vectors and system matrices. An example application illustrates the accuracy of a self-tuning piecewise linear Kalman filter model when applied to a nonlinear turbofan engine simulation. Additional discussions focus on the issue of transient response accuracy and the advantages of a piecewise linear Kalman filter in the context of validation and verification. The techniques described provide a framework for constructing efficient self-tuning aircraft engine models from complex nonlinear simulatns.

Armstrong, Jeffrey B.↗

SAM Theory Manual

The System Analysis Module (SAM) is an advanced and modern system analysis tool under development at Argonne National Laboratory for advanced non-LWR reactor safety analysis. It aims to provide fast-running, modest-fidelity, whole-plant transient analyses capabilities, which are essential for fast turnaround design scoping and engineering analyses of advanced reactor concepts. While SAM is being developed as a system-level modeling and simulation tool, advanced modeling techniques being implemented include a reduced-order three-dimensional module, pseudo 3-D conjugate heat transfer modeling in reactor core, flexible and multi-scale modeling of heat transfer between fluid and structures, in addition to the advances in software environments and design, and numerical methods. SAM aims to be a generic system-level safety analysis tool for advanced non-LWRs, including Liquid-Metal-cooled fast Reactors (LMR), Molten Salt Reactors (MSR), Fluoride-salt-cooled High- temperature Reactors (FHR), and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGR). SAM takes ad- vantage of advances in physical modeling, numerical methods, and software engineering to enhance its user experience and usability. It utilizes an object-oriented computational framework (MOOSE), and its underlying meshing and finite-element library and linear and non-linear solvers, to leverage the modern advanced software environments and numerical methods. This document provides the theoretical and technical basis of the code to help users understand the underlying physical models (such as governing equations, closure models, and component models), system modeling approaches, numerical discretization and solution methods, and the overall capabilities in SAM. As new code capabilities and features are added, the SAM Theory Manual will be updated periodically to keep it consistent with the state of the development.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

SAM Theory Manual

The System Analysis Module (SAM) is an advanced and modern system analysis tool under development at Argonne National Laboratory for advanced non-LWR reactor safety analysis. It aims to provide fast-running, modest-fidelity, whole-plant transient analyses capabilities, which are essential for fast turnaround design scoping and engineering analyses of advanced reactor concepts. While SAM is being developed as a system-level modeling and simulation tool, advanced modeling techniques being implemented include a reduced-order three-dimensional module, pseudo 3-D conjugate heat transfer modeling in reactor core, flexible and multi-scale modeling of heat transfer between fluid and structures, in addition to the advances in software environments and design, and numerical methods. SAM aims to be a generic system-level safety analysis tool for advanced non-LWRs, including Liquid-Metal-cooled fast Reactors (LMR), Molten Salt Reactors (MSR), Fluoride-salt-cooled High-temperature Reactors (FHR), and High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGR). SAM takes advantage of advances in physical modeling, numerical methods, and software engineering to enhance its user experience and usability. It utilizes an object-oriented computational framework (MOOSE), and its underlying meshing and finite-element library and linear and non-linear solvers, to leverage the modern advanced software environments and numerical methods. This document provides the theoretical and technical basis of the code to help users understand the underlying physical models (such as governing equations, closure models, and component models), system modeling approaches, numerical discretization and solution methods, and the overall capabilities in SAM. As new code capabilities and features are added, the SAM Theory Manual will be updated periodically to keep it consistent with the state of the development.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Lie group analysis of the point-reactor neutron kinetics equations for various reactivity models

This work applies Lie Group Theory to the nonlinear point-reactor neutron kinetics equations for several reactivity feedback and reactivity insertion models. The goal of this work is to connect known analytical solutions to their corresponding Lie groups as well as to obtain new analytical solutions and the circumstances from which they arise. The reactivity models we consider are the Nordheim-Fuchs Model, an arbitrary-order polynomial reactivity insertion model, and the Fuchs Ramp-Insertion Model. In all three models, we generalize the analysis when possible and obtain analytical solutions in every case. For the first two models, we succeed in finding the Lie groups corresponding to classical solutions and find additional solutions that were otherwise unknown. Finally, for the final model, we obtain a reduced-order nonlinear kinetics equation which is not analytically solvable, but by applying a second-order truncation, we find a novel closed-form solution and demonstrate its validity with a numerical example.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Application of Quasi-Static Modal Analysis to an Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Test

Bolted structural joints often exhibit load-dependent stiffness and energy dissipation that leads to nonlinear, amplitude dependent frequency and damping in the structure. As an alternative to direct integration of the nonlinear equations of motion, quasi-static modal analysis (QSMA) determines the dependence of frequency and damping on response amplitude using loading behavior from nonlinear static analyses. QSMA has previously been demonstrated to substantially reduce computational cost and maintain accuracy relative to full nonlinear dynamic simulation. This work explores the applicability of QSMA to a complex, large-scale aerospace structure. QSMA is employed to analyze a nonlinear model of test hardware developed to support the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle program, which exhibited nonlinear behavior during dynamic testing at flight-like load levels. In addition to the extraction of amplitude-dependent frequency and damping curves, a Bouc-Wen hysteresis model was used in conjunction with the quasi-static results to develop nonlinear, uncoupled, time-domain modal equations of motion for the structure. Excellent agreement was observed between the reduced and full-order nonlinear models, encouraging future employment of QSMA to support accurate and efficient model reduction of structures with bolted joint nonlinearities.

QSMA↗