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NASA NTRS2024

Deducing Land-Atmosphere Coupling Regimes from SMAP Soil Moisture

In recent years, there has been a growing recognition of the significance of Land-Atmosphere (L-A) interactions and feedback mechanisms in understanding and predicting Earth’s water and energy cycles. Soil moisture plays a critical role in mediating the strength of L-A interactions and is important for understanding the complex and governing processes across this interface. This study aims to identify the significance of soil moisture in identifying L-A coupling strength within the Convective Triggering Potential (CTP) and Humidity Index (HI) framework. To address this, a consistent and reliable dataset of atmospheric profiles is created by merging CTP and HI using Triple Collocation (TC) with three reanalysis datasets. The merged CTP and HI product demonstrates enhanced performance globally as compared to the individual datasets when validated with radiosonde and satellite observations. This merged product of CTP and HI is then used to compare the L-A coupling strength based on Soil Moisture Active Passive Level 3 (SMAPL3) and SMAP Level 4 (SMAPL4) over two decades (2003-2022) where L-A coupling strength is defined as the persistence probability within the dry and wet coupling regimes. Results indicate that the persistency-based coupling strength is related to the ability of soil moisture to predict future atmospheric humidity and dry vs. wet coupling state. The coupling strength in SMAPL4 is consistently stronger than in SMAPL3 and is likely due to its reliance on a land surface model and reduced susceptibility to random noise. The difference in coupling strength based on the same CTP-HI underscores the importance of soil moisture data in estimating coupling strength within the CTP-HI framework. These findings lay the groundwork for understanding the role of L-A interactions and drought evolution due to soil moisture variations, by providing insight into the quantification of coupling strength and its role in drought monitoring and forecast efforts.

Land-atmosphere coupling↗
NASA NTRS2004

NASA GEOS-3/TRMM Re-analysis: Capturing Observed Tropical Rainfall Variability in Global Analysis for Climate Research

Understanding climate variability over a wide range of space-time scales requires a comprehensive description of the earth system. Global analyses produced by a fixed assimilation system (i.e., re-analyses) - as their quality continues to improve - have the potential of providing a vital tool for meeting this challenge. But at the present time, the usefulness of re-analyses is limited by uncertainties in such basic fields as clouds, precipitation, and evaporation - especially in the tropics, where observations are relatively sparse. Analyses of the tropics have long been shown to be sensitive to. the treatment of cloud precipitation processes, which remains a major source of uncertainty in current models. Yet, for many climate studies it is crucial that analyses can accurately reproduce the observed rainfall intensity and variability since a small error of 1 mm/d in surface rain translates into an error of approx. 30 W/sq m in energy (latent heat) flux. Currently, discrepancies between the observed and analyzed monthly-mean rain rates averaged to 100 km x 100 km resolution can exceed 4 mm/d (or 120 W/sq m ), compared to uncertainties in surface radiative fluxes of approx. 10-20 W/sq m . Improving precipitation in analyses would reduce a major source of uncertainty in the global energy budget. Uncertainties in tropical precipitation have also been a major impediment in understanding how the tropics interact with other regions, including the remote response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global analysis that can replicate the observed precipitation variability together with physically consistent estimates of other atmospheric variables provides the key to breaking this roadblock. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of satellite-based microwave rainfall measurements in improving global analyses and has recently produced a multi-year, 1 x 1 TRMM re-analysis , which assimilates 6-hourly TMI and SSM/I surface rain rates over tropical oceans using a ID variational continuous assimilation (VCA) procedure in the GEOS-3 global data assimilation system. The analysis period extends from 1 November 1997 through 3 1 December 2002. The goal is to produce a multi-year global analysis that is dynamically consistent with available tropical precipitation observations for the community to assess its utility in climate applications and identify areas for further improvements. A distinct feature of the GEOS-3RRMh4 re-analysis is that its precipitation analysis is not derived from a short-term forecast (as done in most operational systems) but is given by a time- continuous model integration constrained by precipitation observations within a 6-h analysis window, while the wind, temperature, and pressure fields are allowed to directly respond to the improved precipitation and associated latent heating structures within the same analysis window. In this talk, I will assess the impact VCA precipitation assimilation on analyses of climate signals ranging from a few weeks to interannual time scales and compare results against other operational and reanalysis products.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget from a Multi-Model Perspective

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based meteorological datasets from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications datasets (i.e., MERRA-Land and MERRA-2) and three observation-based precipitation datasets, generating a total of 16 experiments. Modeled evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow, and terrestrial water storage estimates were evaluated against the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) ET, in-situ streamflow observations, and NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products, respectively. Results show that CLSMF2.5 provided better representation of the water budget variables than Noah3.3 in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient when considering all meteorological forcing datasets and precipitation datasets. The model experiments forced with observation-based products, the Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), outperform those run with MERRA-Land and MERRA-2 precipitation. The results presented in this paper would suggest that the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System incorporate CLSMF2.5 and HyMAP routing scheme to better represent the water balance in this region.

Rainfall↗
NASA NTRS2008

How Does Mediterranean Basin's Atmosphere Become Weak Moisture Source During Negative Phase of NAO: Use of AIRS, AMSR, TOVS, & TRMM Satellite Datasets Over Last Two NAO Cycles to Examine Governing Controls on E-P

The Mediterranean Sea is a noted 'concentration" basin in that it almost continuously exhibits positive evaporation minus precipitation (E - P ) properties -- throughout the four seasons and from one year to the next. Nonetheless, according to the ECMWF Era-40 48-year (1958-2005) climate reanalysis dataset, for various phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) when the pressure gradient between Portugal and Iceland becomes either very relaxed (large negative NAO-Index) or in transition (small positive or negative NAO-Index), the atmospheric moisture source properties of the basin become weak, at times even reversed for several months (i.e., negative E - P). This behavior poses numerous questions concerning how and why these events occur. Moreover, it begs the question of what it would take for the basin to reach its tipping point in which P would exceed E throughout the rainy season (some six months) on an annually persistent basis -- and the sea would possibly transform to a recurring "dilution" basin. This talk investigates these questions by: (1) establishing over a period from 1979 to present, based on detailed analyses of satellite retrieval products from a combination of NASA-AQUA, NOAA-LEO, NASA/JAXA Scatterometer, and NASA-TRMM platforms, plus additional specialized satellite data products and ancillary meteorological datasets, the actual observation-based behavior of E - P, (2) diagnosing the salient physical and meteorological mechanisms that lead to the weaker E - P events during the analysis period, partly based on analyzing surface and upper air data at discrete stations in the western and eastern Mediterranean -- while at the same time evaluating the quality of the ERA-40 data over this same time period, (3) conducting GCM and high-resolution regional modeling experiments to determine if perturbed but realistic meteorological background conditions could maintain Mediterranean as a "dilution" basin through the October to March rainy season on annually recurring basis, and (4) investigating how such conditions might modify important internal and external climatic processes known to be closely related to the dynamical, thermal, and hydrological properties of the basin (e.g., drought frequency over Iberian peninsula, rainfall accumulation within Sahel, alteration of Levantine branch of east-west aligned open thermohaline cell, and modification of warm-salty intermediate flow through Gibraltar straight into North Atlantic).

Smith, Eric A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reanalysis of the top-quark pair hadroproduction and a precise determination of the top-quark pole mass at the LHC *

In this study, we calculate the $t\bar{t}$ pQCD production cross-section at the NNLO and determine the top-quark pole mass from recent measurements at the LHC at the center-of-mass energy $\sqrt{S}=13$ TeV to a high precision by applying the principle of maximum conformality (PMC). The PMC provides a systematic method that rigorously eliminates QCD renormalization scale ambiguities by summing the nonconformal $\beta$ contributions into the QCD coupling constant. The PMC predictions satisfy the requirements of renormalization group invariance, including renormalization scheme independence, and the PMC scales accurately reflect the virtuality of the underlying production subprocesses. By using the PMC, an improved prediction for the $t\bar{t}$ production cross-section is obtained without scale ambiguities, which in turn provides a precise value for the top-quark pole mass. Moreover, the prediction of PMC calculations that the magnitudes of higher-order PMC predictions are well within the error bars predicted from the known lower-order has been demonstrated for the top-quark pair production. The resulting determination of the top-quark pole mass, $m_t^{\rm{pole}}=172.5\pm1.4$ GeV, from the LHC measurement at $\sqrt{S}=13$ TeV agrees with the current world average cited by the Particle Data Group (PDG). The PMC prediction provides an important high-precision test of the consistency of pQCD and the SM at $\sqrt{S}=13$ TeV with previous LHC measurements at lower CM energies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2003

Use of MODIS Land and Sea Surface Temperatures to Initialize Mesoscale Models

As computer power continues to increase, mesoscale models are initialized at all hours of the day and continue to be run at higher and higher spatial resolutions. As a result, initializing land surface temperature can be problematic. The majority of research-based models are initialized at 00 and 12 UTC when upper air observations and reanalysis fields are available. The landsea surface temperatures are then set equal to the two-meter air temperature produced by the preprocessor analysis system. This particular procedure might be valid in the early morning hours just prior to sunrise, but it becomes less valid during the remainder of the diurnal cycle. Operational models, such as the Rapid Update Cycle run at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), are initialized every hour on a daily basis. This presents a unique challenge to the initial specification of the land temperature, especially during the first several hours of the solar heating cycle when land and overlying air temperatures are far from being the same. Another issue that needs to be addressed is the spatial variability of land surface temperature. By early next year, the NCEP operational Eta model will be employed at 8 km resolution. Methods to accurately specify the initial land surface temperature at such high resolution need to be explored. This paper presents the results of using data from the NASA Moderate Imaging Sensor aboard the TERRA Satellite to initialize land and sea surface temperatures within the Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) 5'th generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). We have simulated a northern Gulf Coast sea breeze case to demonstrate the utility of using the MODIS data to initialize both the land and sea surface temperature fields. Model grid configurations of 12-, 4-, and l-km are employed.

Arnold, James E.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of MERRA-2-Based Ozone Profile Simulations with the Global Ozonesonde Network

Chemical transport model (CTM) hindcasts of ozone (O3) are useful for filling in observational gaps and providing context for observed O3 variability and trends. We use global networks of ozonesonde stations to evaluate the O3 profiles in two simulations running versions of the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical mechanism. Both simulations are tied to the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) meteorological reanalysis: 1) The GMI CTM, and 2) The MERRA-2 GMI Replay (M2 GMI). Both simulations start in 1980, and are compared against >50,000 ozonesonde profiles from 37 global stations from the tropics to the poles. The comparisons allow us to evaluate how the Replay technique affects modeled O3 distribution, how an updated chemical mechanism in the GMI CTM affects simulated tropospheric O3 amounts, and how observed O3 distributions compare to the full set of model output. In general, M2 GMI O3 is ~10% higher than in the GMI CTM, and shows global near-surface and tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) high biases. The updated chemical mechanism in the GMI CTM reduces these high biases. Both simulations show similar negative biases in tropical free-tropospheric O3, especially during typical biomass burning seasons. The simulations are highly-correlated with ozonesonde measurements, particularly in the UT/LS (r > 0.8), showing the ability of MERRA-2 to capture tropopause height variations. Both simulations show improved correlations with ozonesonde data and smaller O3 biases in recent years. We expect to use the sonde/model comparisons to diagnose causes of disagreement and to gauge the feasibility of calculating multidecadal O3 trends from the model output.

Stauffer, Ryan↗
NASA NTRS2018

Evaluation of MERRA-2-Based Ozone Profile Simulations with the Global Ozonesonde Network

Chemical transport model (CTM) hindcasts of ozone (O3) are useful for filling in observational gaps and providing context for observed O3 variability and trends. We use global networks of ozonesonde stations to evaluate the O3 profiles in two simulations running versions of the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical mechanism. Both simulations are tied to the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) meteorological reanalysis: 1) The GMI CTM, and 2) The MERRA-2 GMI Replay (M2 GMI). Both simulations start in 1980, and are compared against >50,000 ozonesonde profiles from 37 global stations from the tropics to the poles. The comparisons allow us to evaluate how the Replay technique affects modeled O3 distribution, how an updated chemical mechanism in the GMI CTM affects simulated tropospheric O3 amounts, and how observed O3 distributions compare to the full set of model output. In general, M2 GMI O3 is ~10% higher than in the GMI CTM, and shows global near-surface and tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) high biases. The updated chemical mechanism in the GMI CTM reduces these high biases. Both simulations show similar negative biases in tropical free-tropospheric O3, especially during typical biomass burning seasons. The simulations are highly-correlated with ozonesonde measurements, particularly in the UT/LS (r > 0.8), showing the ability of MERRA-2 to capture tropopause height variations. Both simulations show improved correlations with ozonesonde data and smaller O3 biases in recent years. We expect to use the sonde/model comparisons to diagnose causes of disagreement and to gauge the feasibility of calculating multidecadal O3 trends from the model output.

Stauffer, Ryan M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Ross sea ice motion, area flux, and deformation

The sea ice motion, area export, and deformation of the Ross Sea ice cover are examined with satellite passive microwave and RADARSAT observations. The record of high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, from 1998 and 2000, allows the estimation of the variability of ice deformation at the small scale (10 km) and to assess the quality of the longer record of passive microwave ice motion. Daily and subdaily deformation fields and RADARSAT imagery highlight the variability of motion and deformation in the Ross Sea. With the passive microwave ice motion, the area export at a flux gate positioned between Cape Adare and Land Bay is estimated. Between 1992 and 2003, a positive trend can be seen in the winter (March-November) ice area flux that has a mean of 990 x 103 km2 and ranges from a low of 600 x 103 km2 in 1992 to a peak of 1600 x 103 km2 in 2001. In the mean, the southern Ross Sea produces almost twice its own area of sea ice during the winter. Cross-gate sea level pressure (SLP) gradients explain 60% of the variance in the ice area flux. A positive trend in this gradient, from reanalysis products, suggests a 'spinup' of the Ross Sea Gyre over the past 12 yr. In both the NCEP-NCAR and ERA-40 surface pressure fields, longer-term trends in this gradient and mean SLP between 1979 and 2002 are explored along with positive anomalies in the monthly cross-gate SLP gradient associated with the positive phase of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode and the extrapolar Southern Oscillation.

Ross Sea↗
DOE OSTI2026

Process-oriented evaluation of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature extremes in dynamical downscaling over North America

Quasi-stationary Rossby waves are a crucial component of the general circulation and play a significant role in regional water and energy cycles, as well as in extreme events. However, process-oriented evaluation for Rossby waves is rarely performed for dynamical downscaling simulations. To close this gap, we evaluate three classes of dynamical downscaling approaches, with a focus on quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature over North America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The three classes of models differ in the way large-scale forcing is provided: a limited-area model (LAM) constrained only by lateral boundary conditions, represented by RegCM4 from the North American branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX), a LAM with spectral nudging to maintain consistency in large-scale dynamics with the forcing data, represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation in NA-CORDEX, and a global variable-resolution model with smoothly varying grid spacings, represented by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.4, with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) as its dynamical core (CAM-MPAS). With no constraints on the atmospheric dynamics, CAM-MPAS exhibits several mean biases in the upper-level circulations over the Pacific Coast region: a weaker subtropical jet, a northward-shifted mid-latitude jet, and an overestimated southerly flow. With the lateral boundary constraint alone, RegCM4 also exhibits weaker jets and overestimated southerly winds off the West Coast. Rossby ray theory reveals that those wind biases direct incoming Rossby waves northward. The erroneously routed Rossby waves distort the relationship between the accumulation of wave activity over the US West Coast and surface temperature anomalies over the Southern Great Plains, which emerges approximately 4 d after the convergence of wave-activity flux in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, the response of heatwaves to the extreme wave activity flux is not reproduced by the two models, a serious drawback as a dynamical downscaling framework is expected to connect large-scale forcing to local-scale phenomena. The WRF model employing spectral nudging is largely free from the aforementioned problems. A pair of sensitivity simulations suggests that spectral nudging is the key to improving the dynamics of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature. Our results also demonstrate the effectiveness of Rossby wave diagnostics that allow for realistic background flows for assessing the credibility of dynamical downscaling over North America, where incoming Rossby waves propagate through complex circulation patterns before traveling across the continent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

Atmospheric Water Balance and Variability in the MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Closing and balancing Earths global water cycle remains a challenge for the climate community. Observations are limited in duration, global coverage, and frequency, and not all water cycle terms are adequately observed. Reanalyses aim to fill the gaps through the assimilation of as many atmospheric water vapor observations as possible. Former generations of reanalyses have demonstrated a number of systematic problems that have limited their use in climate studies, especially regarding low-frequency trends. This study characterizes the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) water cycle relative to contemporary reanalyses and observations. MERRA-2 includes measures intended to minimize the spurious global variations related to in homogeneity in the observational record. The global balance and cycling of water from ocean to land is presented, with special attention given to the water vapor analysis increment and the effects of the changing observing system. While some systematic regional biases can be identified,MERRA-2 produces temporally consistent time series of total column water and transport of water from ocean to land. However, the interannual variability of ocean evaporation is affected by the changing surface-wind-observing system, and precipitation variability is closely related to the evaporation. The surface energy budget is also strongly influenced by the interannual variability of the ocean evaporation. Furthermore, evaluating the relationship of temperature and water vapor indicates that the variations of water vapor with temperature are weaker in satellite data reanalyses, not just MERRA-2, than determined by observations, atmospheric models, or reanalyses without water vapor assimilation.

MERRA-2↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Satellite-Derived Upper-Tropospheric Water Vapor Transport Index for Climate Studies

A new approach is presented to quantify upper-level moisture transport from geostationary satellite data. Daily time sequences of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite GOES-7 water vapor imagery were used to produce estimates of winds and water vapor mixing ratio in the cloud-free region of the upper troposphere sensed by the 6.7- microns water vapor channel. The winds and mixing ratio values were gridded and then combined to produce a parameter called the water vapor transport index (WVTI), which represents the magnitude of the two-dimensional transport of water vapor in the upper troposphere. Daily grids of WVTI, meridional moisture transport, mixing ratio, pressure, and other associated parameters were averaged to produce monthly fields for June, July, and August (JJA) of 1987 and 1988 over the Americas and surrounding oceanic regions, The WVTI was used to compare upper-tropospheric moisture transport between the summers of 1987 and 1988, contrasting the latter part of the 1986/87 El Nino event and the La Nina period of 1988. A similar product derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) 40-Year Reanalysis Project was used to help to validate the index. Although the goal of this research was to describe the formulation and utility of the WVTI, considerable insight was obtained into the interannual variability of upper-level water vapor transport. Both datasets showed large upper-level water vapor transport associated with synoptic features over the Americas and with outflow from tropical convective systems. Minimal transport occurred over tropical and subtropical high pressure regions where winds were light. Index values from NCEP-NCAR were 2-3 times larger than that determined from GOES. This difference resulted from large zonal wind differences and an apparent overestimate of upper-tropospheric moisture in the reanalysis model. A comparison of the satellite-derived monthly values between the summers of 1987 and 1988 provided some insight into the impact of the ENSO event on upper-level moisture and its transport during the period. During July 1987, a large portion of the Tropics in the eastern Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea was dominated by strong vapor transport in excess of 4.0 g/kg m/s, with relatively small amounts in the other months. JJA 1988 transport values reached similar magnitude and showed similar patterns for all three months. The meridional transport of upper-level water vapor indicated large poleward transport from the Tropics to the higher latitudes. This transport favored the Southern Hemisphere, with large transport occurring south of the ITCZ, which extended across the eastern Pacific and northern South America. Zonally averaged monthly transport values were shown to provide a simple way to quantify the monthly and interannual changes in water vapor transport. Zonally averaged WVTI values peaked in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics during both austral winters. In the Tropics, a single, more- pronounced peak located over the equator and south latitudes occurred in 1988 as opposed to a dual peak in 1987. The second peak around 20'N latitude is consistent with findings of others in which upper-tropospheric winds were noted to be stronger in this region during warm ENSO events. Zonally averaged meridional transport was southward for all summer months and was stronger in 1988. The asymmetric nature of the zonally averaged meridional transport (more southerly water vapor transport) was enhanced during JJA 1988, thus indicating a stronger upper- level branch of the Hadley circulation during this notably strong La Nina period.

Jedlovec, Gray J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraints on simulated past Arctic amplification and lapse rate feedback from observations

The Arctic has warmed more rapidly than the global mean during the past few decades. The lapse rate feedback (LRF) has been identified as being a large contributor to the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. This particular feedback arises from the vertically non-uniform warming of the troposphere, which in the Arctic emerges as strong near-surface and muted free-tropospheric warming. Stable stratification and meridional energy transport are two characteristic processes that are evoked as causes for this vertical warming structure. Our aim is to constrain these governing processes by making use of detailed observations in combination with the large climate model ensemble of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We build on the result that CMIP6 models show a large spread in AA and Arctic LRF, which are positively correlated for the historical period of 1951–2014. Thus, we present process-oriented constraints by linking characteristics of the current climate to historical climate simulations. In particular, we compare a large consortium of present-day observations to co-located model data from subsets that show a weak and strong simulated AA and Arctic LRF in the past. Our analyses suggest that the vertical temperature structure of the Arctic boundary layer is more realistically depicted in climate models with weak (w) AA and Arctic LRF (CMIP6/w) in the past. In particular, CMIP6/w models show stronger inversions in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter and over sea ice, which is more consistent with the observations. These results are based on observations from the year-long Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic, long-term measurements at the Utqiagvik site in Alaska, USA, and dropsonde temperature profiling from aircraft campaigns in the Fram Strait. In addition, the atmospheric energy transport from lower latitudes that can further mediate the warming structure in the free troposphere is more realistically represented by CMIP6/w models. In particular, CMIP6/w models systemically simulate a weaker Arctic atmospheric energy transport convergence in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter, which is more consistent with fifth generation reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). We further show a positive relationship between the magnitude of the present-day transport convergence and the strength of past AA. With respect to the Arctic LRF, we find links between the changes in transport pathways that drive vertical warming structures and local differences in the LRF. This highlights the mediating influence of advection on the Arctic LRF and motivates deeper studies to explicitly link spatial patterns of Arctic feedbacks to changes in the large-scale circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Towards a Comprehensive Dynamic-chemistry Assimilation for Eos-Chem: Plans and Status in NASA's Data Assimilation Office

In order to support the EOS-Chem project, a comprehensive assimilation package for the coupled chemical-dynamical system is being developed by the Data Assimilation Office at NASA GSFC. This involves development of a coupled chemistry/meteorology model and of data assimilation techniques for trace species and meteorology. The model is being developed using the flux-form semi-Lagrangian dynamical core of Lin and Rood, the physical parameterizations from the NCAR Community Climate Model, and atmospheric chemistry modules from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics branch at NASA GSFC. To date the following results have been obtained: (i) multi-annual simulations with the dynamics-radiation model show the credibility of the package for atmospheric simulations; (ii) initial simulations including a limited number of middle atmospheric trace gases reveal the realistic nature of transport mechanisms, although there is still a need for some improvements. Samples of these results will be shown. A meteorological assimilation system is currently being constructed using the model; this will form the basis for the proposed meteorological/chemical assimilation package. The latter part of the presentation will focus on areas targeted for development in the near and far terms, with the objective of Providing a comprehensive assimilation package for the EOS-Chem science experiment. The first stage will target ozone assimilation. The plans also encompass a reanalysis (ReSTS) for the 1991-1995 period, which includes the Mt. Pinatubo eruption and the time when a large number of UARS observations were available. One of the most challenging aspects of future developments will be to couple theoretical advances in tracer assimilation with the practical considerations of a real environment and eventually a near-real-time assimilation system.

Pawson, Steven↗
NASA NTRS2018

Results from ORACLES-2016: Observed Biomass Burning Aerosol Properties over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean and the Relationship to Meteorology

The Southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA), with seasonal biomass burning (BB) smoke plumes overlying persistent stratocumulus cloud deck, offers an excellent natural laboratory to make the observations necessary to understand the complexities of aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions. The first field deployment of the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign was conducted in September of 2016 out of Walvis Bay, Namibia. During this deployment, two NASA aircraft (a P-3 and an ER-2) were flown with a suite of aerosol, cloud, radiation, and meteorological instruments for remote-sensing and in-situ observations. In this talk, I will first present results from an intercomparison of the different instrument retrievals for the 2016 flights, with a specific focus on the measures of aerosol absorption. In ORACLES, data collected by eight different instrument teams are used to derive aerosol properties over this region by independent methods. We focus on the single scattering albedo (SSA), a measure of the relative absorption versus total extinction by aerosols, as the main comparable property between all methods. I will also discuss comparisons of the retrieved aerosol absorption parameters, as well as the agreement and the variability seen between different instruments, and spatially over the study region. Another important factor in understanding aerosol radiative effects is how the magnitude of these effects may be modified by meteorological conditions. I will next describe observations collected from the P-3 aircraft (from near-surface up to 6-7 kilometers) which show a strong correlation between the in-situ pollution indicators (carbon monoxide and aerosol properties) and atmospheric water vapor content, seen at all altitudes above the boundary layer. This condition is seen to persist over all flights, with minimal detrainment during advection from the continental source. In exploring the potential causal factors behind and implications of this relationship, we see indications that convective dynamics over the continent likely contribute to this elevated signal, but neither meteorological reanalysis nor trajectory analysis fully capture the magnitude and vertical structure of the observed elevated signal. Finally, I will discuss the radiative implications of the observed correlations, a topic of ongoing analysis in ORACLES: understanding the mechanisms which cause water vapor to covary with plume strength is important to quantifying the radiative effects (direct and semi-direct) of biomass burning aerosol in the region.

Pistone, Kristina↗
DOE OSTI2025

Co-Occurring Atmospheric Features and Their Contributions to Precipitation Extremes

Object-based identification algorithms for atmospheric features are commonly utilized to attribute global precipitation. This study employs a systematic approach to examine feature co-occurrences and their relationships to mean and extreme precipitation. Four features are identified using existing data sets for atmospheric rivers (ARs), mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), low-pressure systems (LPSs), and fronts (FTs). Often, a single atmospheric phenomenon satisfies the criteria set by multiple feature identification algorithms, yielding an association between precipitation and multiple features. Over the extra-tropics, the number of features attributed to a single event typically increases with precipitation intensity. Over two-thirds of the precipitation is from co-occurring features, with a considerable fraction related to AR-FT co-occurrences. Over the tropics, about one-quarter of precipitation is associated with co-occurring features, with LPS-MCS co-occurrences contributing substantially in monsoon regions. MCSs are the leading single-feature contributors over tropical land and oceans. In the extra-tropics, FTs, ARs, and their co-occurrences account for over half of the total precipitation over oceans. AR-FT-MCS and FT-MCS co-occurrences contribute to extremes (precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile) over both oceans (over 30%) and land (over 20%). Any combination of features involving MCSs shows a larger contribution to high percentiles of precipitation intensity. A case analysis indicates that AR-FT-MCS co-occurrences exhibit convective instability and deep vertical motion, suggesting that the feature trackers and reanalysis are capturing physics relevant to both convective and frontal systems. The results here emphasize the need for simultaneous identifications of multiple features when attributing precipitation to atmospheric phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Excessive Subsidence of the Southeast Atlantic Biomass Burning Aerosol Plume in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Model

Global models struggle to accurately represent the meteorological environment over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean, as evidenced by the poor representation of persistent marine stratocumulus decks off the west coast of southern Africa. This complex regime also experiences significant seasonal biomass burning aerosol plumes that are transported from southern Africa over the Atlantic Ocean, which gradually descend via large scale subsidence and interact radiatively and microphysically with the cloudy environment of the region. In comparisons to space borne lidar and aircraft observations we find that the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model’s MERRA-2 aerosol and meteorology reanalysis shows that the aerosol plume descends too rapidly due to exaggerated large-scale downward vertical motion. This complicates the evaluation of aerosol properties utilizing aircraft observations collected throughout the ORACLES campaign as well as the model’s representation of the heating rate profiles due to the aerosol itself and its radiative interaction with the semi-permanent cloud deck typically located lower in altitude than the smoke. Two types of modeling experiments using GEOS will be presented to diagnose deficiencies in the model related to the excessive subsidence. Ensembles of free-running model simulations with and without radiatively active biomass burning aerosol will be used to quantify the impact of smoke on the atmospheric circulation. It will be demonstrated that heating within the aerosol layer results in self lofting through a reduction of the subsidence but did not alter the vertical placement or speed of the African Easterly jet. The amount of aerosol absorption required to eliminate the bias in the height of the aerosol plume through self-lofting will then be quantified. Finally, a second type of modeling experiment will be discussed in which the meteorology is constrained to observations. This will allow for biases in the height of the aerosol plume due to the general circulation model to be distinguished from biases that may be induced through the data assimilation process.

Allison Collow↗
DOE OSTI2023

Identifying snowfall elevation patterns by assimilating satellite-based snow depth retrievals

Precipitation in mountain regions is highly variable and poorly measured, posing important challenges to water resource management. Traditional methods to estimate precipitation include in-situ gauges, Doppler weather radars, satellite radars and radiometers, numerical modeling and reanalysis products. Each of these methods is unable to adequately capture complex orographic precipitation. Here, we propose a novel approach to characterize orographic snowfall over mountain regions. We use a particle batch smoother to leverage satellite information from Sentinel-1 derived snow depth retrievals and to correct various gridded precipitation products. This novel approach is tested using a simple snow model for an alpine basin located in Trentino Alto Adige, Italy. Here, we quantify the precipitation biases across the basin and found that the assimilation method (i) corrects for snowfall biases and uncertainties, (ii) leads to cumulative snowfall elevation patterns that are consistent across precipitation products, and (iii) results in overall improved basin-wide snow variables (snow depth and snow cover area) and basin streamflow estimates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗