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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

One Structure, Two Elements—LuGe 2 Superconductor vs Ordinary Metallic Conductor LuSn 2 . A Case Study on How Site-Selective Germanium for Tin Atom Substitution Leads to Modulating of the Charge Distribution

The substitution of chemically similar elements in a given crystal structure is an effective way to enhance physical properties, but the understanding on such improvements is usually impeded because the substitutions are random, and the roles of the different atoms cannot be distinguished by crystallographic symmetry. Herein, we provide a detailed crystallographic analysis and property measurements for the continuous solid solutions LuGe x Sn 2–x (0 < x < 2). The results show that there is no apparent change of the global symmetry, with the end-members LuGe 2 and LuSn 2 , as well as the intermediate LuGe x Sn 2–x compositions adopting the ZrSi 2 type structure (space group Cmcm, Pearson index oC12). Yet, the refinements of the crystal structures from single-crystal X-ray diffraction data show that Ge–Sn atom substitutions are not random, but occur preferentially at the zig-zag chain. The patterned distribution of two group 14 elements leads to a significant variation in chemical bonding and charge ordering within the other structural fragment, the 2D square nets, thereby resulting in tuned electron transport. The enhancement is greater than the typical Bloch-Gruneisen model, and more akin to the parallel-resistor model. Magnetization measurements on single crystals show bulk superconductivity in all LuGe x Sn 2–x samples with shielding fractions as high as 90%. Specific heat data confirm the effect to originate from residual metallic tin in the material, indicating that Sn atom substitutions in the 2D square nets cause disruptions of the hypervalent bonding and local anisotropy, which ultimately leads to vanishing of the superconducting state in the end-member LuGe 2 . This work sheds light on how the complexity in chemical interactions by two different carbon congeners leads to changes in the physical properties and how they can be correlated with the induced charge distribution. Furthermore, these studies also provide a general approach to modulation of charge density, and thus, of emerging physical properties in other classes of intermetallic systems based on the main-group elements of groups 13 to 15.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Coarse-Grained Density Functional Theory Predictions via Deep Kernel Learning

Scalable electronic predictions are critical for soft materials design. Recently, the Electronic Coarse-Graining (ECG) method was introduced to renormalize all-atom quantum chemical (QC) predictions to coarse-grained (CG) resolutions using deep neural networks (DNNs). While DNNs can learn complex representations that prove challenging for kernel-based methods, they are susceptible to overfitting and the overconfidence of uncertainty estimations. Here, we develop ECG within a GPU-accelerated Deep Kernel Learning (DKL) framework to enable CG QC predictions using range-separated hybrid density functional theory (DFT), obtaining a 107 speedup relative to naive all-atom QC. By treating the predicted electronic properties as random Gaussian Processes, DKL incorporates CG mapping degeneracy by learning the distribution of electronic energies as a function of CG configuration. DKL-ECG accurately reproduces molecular orbital energies from range-separated DFT while facilitating efficient training via active learning using the uncertainties provided by DKL. Further, we show that while active learning algorithms enable efficient sampling of a more diverse configurational space relative to random sampling, all explored query methods exhibit comparable performance for the examined system. We attribute this result to the significant overlap of the feature space and output property distributions across multiple temperatures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

MgO Nanostructures on Cu(111): Understanding Size- and Morphology-Dependent CO 2 Binding and Hydrogenation

To design and optimize cost-effective technologies for the capture, utilization, and storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), we need a fundamental knowledge and control of chemical interactions associated with the capture and conversion of the molecule into high-value chemicals, minerals, and all kinds of materials. Bulk magnesium oxide (MgO) is frequently used for the trapping and storage of CO 2 by generation of magnesium carbonates. In this study, the growth and reactivity of MgO nanostructures on a Cu 2 O/Cu(111) substrate were investigated using scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) and synchrotron-based ambient-pressure X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (AP-XPS). For extremely small concentrations of Mg (~ 0.01 monolayer (ML)), a well-ordered film of copper oxide with small clusters (0.2-0.5 nm in width, 0.4-0.6 Å in height) of embedded MgO was seen. At a coverage of 0.1 ML, MgO nanoparticles with a width of 0.4 to 1 nm and a height of ~ 1.5 Å were randomly distributed on the copper oxide. Further, random distribution was also observed when the MgO coverage was raised to 0.25 ML, with the width of the MgO particles increasing to 2-2.5 nm and the height reaching 2 Å. These oxide nanostructures displayed a high reactivity towards CO 2 and H 2 that is not seen for bulk MgO. Dissociation of H 2 was observed at room temperature with reaction of the H adatoms with CuO x and C-containing groups. On the small MgO nanostructures (< 1 nm in width), instead of plain carbonate formation, there was dissociation of CO 2 into CO and C species, opening reaction channels for the conversion of this harmful molecule into oxygenates and light alkanes.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evidence of Skewness and Sub-Gaussian Character in Temperature-Dependent Distributions of One Million Electronic Excitation Energies in PbS Quantum Dots

Obtaining statistical distributions by sampling a large number of conformations is vital for an accurate description of temperature-dependent properties of chemical systems. However, constructing distributions with 105??106 samples is computationally challenging because of the prohibitively high computational cost of performing rst-principles quantum-mechanical calculations. In this work, we present a new technique called the Eective Stochastic Potential Conguration Interaction Singles (ESP-CIS) method to obtain excitation energies. The ESP-CIS method uses random matrix theory for the construction of an eective stochastic representation of the Fock operator and combines it with linear-response theory. Here, we perform excitation calculations on PbS quantum dots (0.75-1.75 nm) at temperatures of 200-400 K. Results from a total of 15 million excitation energy calculations (1 million samples for each of the three dots at ve dierent temperatures) revealed the distributions to be sub-Gaussian in nature with negative skewness. The distributions progressively became red-shifted with increasing temperature. The study shows that random distortions in structure from the minimum-energy geometry of these quantum dots are more likely to lower the excitation energies.

Scher, Jeremy A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Origins of Electrostriction in Poly(vinylidene fluoride)-Based Ferroelectric Polymers

Although electrostriction is ubiquitous for dielectric polymers, giant electrostriction has not been observed until relaxor ferroelectric (RFE) poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF)-based polymers are achieved. However, the exact origin for giant electrostriction in these polymers has not been fully understood. By studying the electrostriction in the uniaxially stretched films of a ferroelectric poly(VDF-co-trifluoroethylene) [P(VDF-TrFE)] random copolymer and an RFE poly(VDF-co-TrFE-co-chlorotrifluoroethylene) [P(VDF-TrFE-CTFE)] random terpolymer in this work, we confirmed that ferroelectric switching with large hysteresis, such as in the case of P(VDF-TrFE), was not genuine electrostriction. By decreasing large ferroelectric domains to the nanometer scale (i.e., 2–3 nm), such as in the case of the P(VDF-TrFE-CTFE) terpolymer, electrostriction with low hysteresis could be achieved. Here, two origins of the large electrostriction in these polymers were identified. The first was the mechano-electrostriction due to the poling field-induced conformation transformation of oriented polymer chains. The second was the electric repulsion of electrically aligned nanodomains. These effects could occur in both crystals and the oriented amorphous fraction, which links between the nanocrystals and the isotropic amorphous fraction. When the poling field was relatively low (e.g., <40 MV/m), the mechano-electrostriction was the major contribution and the electric repulsion effect was a minor contribution to electrostriction. Meanwhile, a strong temperature dependence of the low-field electrostriction coefficient was observed. Finally, we found an empirical inverse relationship between the electrostriction coefficient and the product of Young’s modulus and dielectric constant. The knowledge obtained from this study provides an insightful understanding of the electrostriction mechanism in PVDF-based electroactive polymers, which will find potential applications in sensors and actuators for wearable electronics and soft robotics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nanocomposites Based on Coil-Comb Diblock Copolymers

The polymer chain architecture is an important factor determining the phase behavior of nanoparticle (NP) assembly in polymer matrices. Block copolymers (BCPs) containing a random copolymer (RCP) block present a convenient variation on traditional BCPs to tune the interaction parameters between the polymer blocks and the nanofillers as well as to evaluate the effect of the chain architecture on the NP arrangements within BCP microdomains. Here, we synthesized BCPs with a coil polystyrene (PS) block and a comb RCP block through reversible addition-fragmentation chain transfer polymerization. The RCP block consists of methyl- and lauryl acrylates, the latter of which confers a long-chain alkyl moiety to favorably interact with alkyl-passivated NPs. BCPs showing lamellar, cylindrical, and mixed morphologies were obtained by varying the volume fractions of the RCP block (f RCP ). In comparison to coil-coil BCP, the coil-comb BCPs show highly asymmetric phase behavior with respect to fRCP, where lamellar morphologies were observed at fRCP from 0.31 to 0.51. NPs in the size of 4-5 nm were successfully incorporated in the RCP block of the BCPs with periodicities of 30-60 nm. An order-to-order phase transition from lamellae to PS cylinders was observed after the addition of only 1-2 vol % 5 nm NPs into the BCP with a periodicity of 25 nm and f RCP of 0.51. Self-consistent field theory-density functional theory simulations qualitatively described the observed morphologies and phase transitions in the nanocomposites. Here, the current study presents a platform to fabricate nanocomposites with NP assemblies in coil-comb BCPs that contain a random copolymer block and provides insight into how polymer chain architectures can affect the phase behavior of BCPs and nanocomposites.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scaling Theory of Neutral Sequence-Specific Polyampholytes

The primary sequence of charged monomers in a polyampholyte has a profound effect on its conformational properties. In this work, theory and simulations are used to predict how the sequence influences the single-chain behavior of globally neutral polyampholytes (PAs) under salt-free conditions. We consider PAs with Markov statistics of charges, where charge “blockiness” is defined by the correlation λ along the chain. These PAs cover a wide spectrum of primary sequences ranging from alternating (λ = –1) to ideally random (λ = 0) to diblock (λ → 1). In a theta solvent, sufficiently long PAs of any primary sequence form globules, but their internal structure, as well as the position and sharpness of the coil–globule transition, crucially depends on λ. Further, using scaling arguments, we demonstrate that the excess charge of the globule correlation volume (blob) increases with increasing λ, thereby inducing stronger Coulomb attractions between neighboring blobs of opposite charge and leading to higher density PA globules. Scaling predictions are supported by the results of the random phase approximation (RPA) and coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations. A generalization to good and poor solvents is presented that enables the construction of the resulting scaling diagram of PA conformations in terms of solvent quality and charge blockiness, thereby providing a comprehensive molecular understanding of the role of the PA primary sequence in the chain structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effects of Ionic Group Distribution on the Structure and Dynamics of Amorphous Polymer Melts

Ionizable groups tethered to a polymer backbone often associate to form ionic clusters, whose features are determined by the balance of the polymer backbone and electrostatics. These assemblies impact the dynamics of the macromolecules and their ability to transport ions. Here, using fully atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, we investigate the effects of the distribution of ionizable groups along the polymer backbone on cluster characteristics and the resulting impacts on the structure and dynamics of amorphous polymers. Particularly, we probe polystyrene sulfonates (PSS) with random, precise, and block configurations of the SO 3 – sulfonate groups along the backbone with Na + as the counterion. We find that the distribution of the ionic groups affects the shape and distribution of the clusters as well as the internal packing of the ionizable groups in the cluster and the number of unique chains that participate in each cluster, affecting the structure and the dynamics of the polymers. Furthermore, the signature of ionic clusters, observed in the static structure factor S(q) for all three distributions, is significantly more pronounced for the precise and blocky polymers compared to the random one. Remarkably, we find that the local mobility of the polymer segments is not only affected by the number and size of the clusters but also by the number of polymer chains associated with clusters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Crosslinking and Gelation of Polymer Brushes and Free Polymer Chains in a Confined Space during Controlled Radical Polymerization-A Computer Simulation Study

The confinement effect on crosslinking and gelation during controlled/living copolymerization of a monovinyl and a divinyl monomer was studied by Monte Carlo computer simulation using the dynamic lattice liquid method. The simulated reactions took place in plane-parallel slits of various widths for various grafting densities (GDs) and various initial initiator/crosslinker ratios ([X] 0 /[Ini] 0 ). Monomers and crosslinkers were initially randomly distributed in the slit, but initiators were either anchored to one solid plane (polymer brushes) or randomly distributed (free chains). For brushes, the gel point (GP) depended on GD and [X] 0 /[Ini] 0 . The higher these parameters, the lower was the gel point. The gel point was also affected by the slit width. For free, nongrafted chains, the dependence of GP on slit width was negligible. For brushes, a nonuniform density of crosslinks was found, the highest density was close to the wall. This asymmetry was high at the gel point and decreased at higher conversions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multifunctional Tunable Polymethacrylates for Enhanced Shear Stability and Wear Prevention

This paper describes the design, synthesis, and characterization of linear, polar, and non-polar polymethacrylates designed for use as lubricant viscosity index improvers with enhanced shear and anti-wear resistance. The polymers were prepared via Reversible Addition-Fragmentation Chain Transfer (RAFT) to obtain relatively low, narrow, molecular weights, with random polar moieties. The resulting polymers were evaluated as oil solutions to determine their viscosity index, shear stability performance, and antiwear characteristics. The polymers had molecular weights (Mw) ranging from 120-170 kDa, and the resulting viscosity indexes (VIs) in general tracked the Mw. Although the VIs were modest (140-189), all polymers displayed higher values than a commercial product designed for similar applications, both at 2% (w/w) and when kinematic viscosities (KVs) were normalized to the lowest KV100 of ~5cSt. One of the imidazole-containing polymers displayed an anomalously high VI for a low apparent Mw. As hypothesized, many of the polar polymers demonstrated substantial wear reduction compared to the non-polar homopolymers or a commercial benchmark. The low-molecular-weight imidazole-containing polymer produced less than 4% of the wear displayed by the commercial standard. The higher molecular weight polymers containing imidazole, hydroxy group and amino group also produced as little as 10% of the wear shown by the benchmark. The strategy demonstrated the benefit of low, narrow, molecular weight polymers to achieve good shear stability in viscosity modifiers while minimizing wear, rendering them suitable for fluid-power applications.

friction modifiers↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time In Situ Observation of CsPbBr 3 Perovskite Nanoplatelets Transforming into Nanosheets

The manipulation of nano-objects through heating is an effective strategy for inducing structural modifications and therefore changing the optoelectronic properties of semiconducting materials. Despite its potential, the underlying mechanism of the structural transformations remains elusive, largely due to the challenges associated with their in situ observations. To address these issues, we synthesize temperature-sensitive CsPbBr 3 perovskite nanoplatelets and investigate their structural evolution at the nanoscale using in situ heating transmission electron microscopy. We observe the morphological changes that start from the self-assembly of the nanoplatelets into ribbons on a substrate. We identify several paths of merging nanoplates within ribbons that ultimately lead to the formation of nanosheets dispersed randomly on the substrate. These observations are supported by molecular dynamics simulations. We correlate the various paths for merging to the random orientation of the initial ribbons along with the ligand mobility (especially from the edges of the nanoplatelets). This leads to the preferential growth of individual nanosheets and the merging of neighboring ones. These processes enable the creation of structures with tunable emission, ranging from blue to green, all from a single material. Our real-time observations of the transformation of perovskite 2D nanocrystals reveal a route to achieve large-area nanosheets by controlling the initial orientation of the self-assembled objects with potential for large-scale applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Ammonia and Humidity Monitoring with Ultra-Fast Conductometric Sensors Based on Porphyrin and Phthalocyanine Complexes

Organic semiconductors like porphyrins and phthalocyanines are attracting a wide range of researchers due to their versatile electrical properties and sensing performances in conductometric sensors. In this study, we investigate two types of π-extended porphyrins, which share the same macrocyclic structure but differ in their central metal. These porphyrins are employed as sublayers in bilayer heterojunction devices, with the lutetium bisphthalocyanine complex, LuPc 2 , serving as the common top layer. Remarkably, the central metal in the porphyrin macrocycle significantly influences the solubility of the materials and, consequently, the surface topography of the resulting bilayer heterojunction devices. This structural variation translates into distinct electrical and sensing performances. The device incorporating nickel as metal centre (AM2) demonstrates superior sensitivity towards NH3, with a relative response (RR) of ca. -7% at 90 ppm, an ultra-fast response time of about 9 s, and an impressive limit of detection (LOD) of 250 ppb, whereas, the device that has zinc as metal centre in sublayer (AM3) exhibits RR value of ca. -0.9% at 90 ppm with t 90 of ca. 120 s and LOD of 2 ppm. Both devices are evaluated under randomly varying NH 3 concentration and RH value. The results shows that the AM2-based sensor allows following NH 3 in real-time, while the AM3-based sensor delivers an average concentration over time. On the other hand, the AM2-based sensor exhibits slow kinetics under RH exposure, while the AM3-based sensor precisely mirrors the pattern of random RH changes generated by the software, demonstrating its exceptional responsiveness and accuracy in tracking humidity fluctuations. In conclusion, these findings underscore the critical role of the metal centre in tuning the electrical and sensing properties of the heterojunction devices.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Basin-Size Mapping: Prediction of Metastable Polymorph Synthesizability Across TaC–TaN Alloys

The sizes of the basins of attraction on the potential energy surface are helpful indicators in determining the experimental synthesizability of metastable phases. In principle, these basins can be controlled with changes in thermodynamic conditions such as composition, pressure, and surface energy. Herein, we use random structure sampling to computationally study how alloying smoothly perturbs basin of attraction sizes. The TaC 1-x N x pseudobinary is an ideal test system given the structural and polymorphic contrast of its parent compounds and their technological relevance as epitaxial substrates for Al 1-x Ga x N. While we find limited thermodynamic stability across all computationally observed phases, random structure sampling shows a significant composition region where the rocksalt basin dominates. As such, we predict the potential for the nonequilibrium synthesis of metastable rocksalt TaC 1-x N x alloys as substrates for Al 1-x Ga x N. At higher nitrogen concentrations, other low-energy metastable polymorphs emerge that continue to retain the hexagonal close packing suitable for III-N growth. Confidence in these trends was established through uncertainty quantification of the basin sizes and energy distributions; such analysis utilized the Beta and Dirichlet distributions. In conclusion, we also find (a) polymorph basin sizes can be rationalized in terms of energetic preferences for different coordination environments; and (b) basin sizes universally shrink with increasing nitrogen content, making the system more prone to amorphous growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Megadrought: A Series of Unfortunate La Niña Events?

Megadroughts are multidecadal periods of aridity more persistent than most droughts during the instrumental period. Paleoclimate evidence suggests that megadroughts occur in many parts of the world, including North America, Central America, western Europe, eastern Asia, and northern Africa. It remains unclear to what extent such megadroughts require external forcing or whether they can arise from internal climate variability alone. A novel statistical–dynamical approach is used to evaluate the possibility that such events arise solely as a function of interannual tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variations. A statistical emulator of tropical SST variations is constructed by using an empirical moving-blocks bootstrap approach that randomly samples multiyear sequences of the observational SST record. This approach preserves the power spectrum, seasonal cycle, and spatial pattern of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but removes longer timescale fluctuations embedded in the observational record. These resampled SST anomalies are then used to force an atmospheric model (the Community Atmosphere Model Version 5). As megadroughts emerge in this run, they should, therefore, be solely a consequence of La Niña sequences combined with internal atmospheric variability and persistence driven by soil moisture storage and other land-surface processes. We indeed find that megadroughts in this simulation have an amplitude-duration rate that is generally indistinguishable from the rate documented in paleoclimate records of the western United States. Our findings support the idea that megadroughts may occur randomly when the unforced climate system evolves freely over a sufficiently long period of time, implying that an unforced unusual but statistically plausible series of La Niña events may be sufficient to generate megadrought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global Sensitivity Analysis Using the Ultra‐Low Resolution Energy Exascale Earth System Model

Abstract For decades, Arctic temperatures have increased twice as fast as average global temperatures. As a first step toward quantifying parametric uncertainty in Arctic climate, we performed a variance‐based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled, ultra‐low resolution (ULR) configuration of version 1 of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1). Specifically, we quantified the sensitivity of six quantities of interests (QOIs), which characterize changes in Arctic climate over a 75 year period, to uncertainties in nine model parameters spanning the sea ice, atmosphere, and ocean components of E3SMv1. Sensitivity indices for each QOI were computed with a Gaussian process emulator using 139 random realizations of the random parameters and fixed preindustrial forcing. Uncertainties in the atmospheric parameters in the Cloud Layers Unified by Binormals (CLUBB) scheme were found to have the most impact on sea ice status and the larger Arctic climate. Our results demonstrate the importance of conducting sensitivity analyses with fully coupled climate models. The ULR configuration makes such studies computationally feasible today due to its low computational cost. When advances in computational power and modeling algorithms enable the tractable use of higher‐resolution models, our results will provide a baseline that can quantify the impact of model resolution on the accuracy of sensitivity indices. Moreover, the confidence intervals provided by our study, which we used to quantify the impact of the number of model evaluations on the accuracy of sensitivity estimates, have the potential to inform the computational resources needed for future sensitivity studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Subseasonal Clustering of Atmospheric Rivers Over the Western United States

Abstract The serial occurrence of atmospheric rivers (ARs) along the US West Coast can lead to prolonged and exacerbated hydrologic impacts, threatening flood‐control and water‐supply infrastructure due to soil saturation and diminished recovery time between storms. Here a statistical approach for quantifying subseasonal temporal clustering among extreme events is applied to a 41‐year (1979–2019) wintertime AR catalog across the western United States (US). Observed AR occurrence, compared against a randomly distributed AR timeseries with the same average event density, reveals temporal clustering at a greater‐than‐random rate across the western US with a distinct geographical pattern. Compared to the Pacific Northwest, significant AR clusters over the northern Coastal Range of California and Sierra Nevada are more frequent and occur over longer time periods. Clusters along the California Coastal Range typically persist for 2 weeks, are composed of 4–5 ARs per cluster, and account for over 85% of total AR occurrence. Across the northwest Coast‐Cascade Ranges, clusters account for ∼50% of total AR occurrence, typically last 8–10 days, and contain 3–4 individual AR events. Based on precipitation data from a high‐resolution dynamical downscaling of reanalysis, the fractions of total and extreme hourly precipitation attributable to AR clusters are largest along the northern California coast and in the Sierra Nevada. Interannual variability among clusters highlights their importance for determining whether a particular water year is anomalously wet or dry. The mechanisms behind this unusual clustering are unclear and require further research.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Upscaling Soil Organic Carbon Measurements at the Continental Scale Using Multivariate Clustering Analysis and Machine Learning

Abstract Estimates of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are essential for many environmental applications. However, significant inconsistencies exist in SOC stock estimates for the U.S. across current SOC maps. We propose a framework that combines unsupervised multivariate geographic clustering (MGC) and supervised Random Forests regression, improving SOC maps by capturing heterogeneous relationships with SOC drivers. We first used MGC to divide the U.S. into 20 SOC regions based on the similarity of covariates (soil biogeochemical, bioclimatic, biological, and physiographic variables). Subsequently, separate Random Forests models were trained for each SOC region, utilizing environmental covariates and SOC observations. Our estimated SOC stocks for the U.S. (52.6 ± 3.2 Pg for 0–30 cm and 108.3 ± 8.2 Pg for 0–100 cm depth) were within the range estimated by existing products like Harmonized World Soil Database, HWSD (46.7 Pg for 0–30 cm and 90.7 Pg for 0–100 cm depth) and SoilGrids 2.0 (45.7 Pg for 0–30 cm and 133.0 Pg for 0–100 cm depth). However, independent validation with soil profile data from the National Ecological Observatory Network showed that our approach ( R 2 = 0.51) outperformed the estimates obtained from Harmonized World Soil Database ( R 2 = 0.23) and SoilGrids 2.0 ( R 2 = 0.39) for the topsoil (0–30 cm). Uncertainty analysis (e.g., low representativeness and high coefficients of variation) identified regions requiring more measurements, such as Alaska and the deserts of the U.S. Southwest. Our approach effectively captures the heterogeneous relationships between widely available predictors and the current SOC baseline across regions, offering reliable SOC estimates at 1 km resolution for benchmarking Earth system models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Snow Distribution Patterns Revisited: A Physics-Based and Machine Learning Hybrid Approach to Snow Distribution Mapping in the Sub-Arctic

Snowpack distribution in Arctic and alpine landscapes often occurs in repeating, year-to-year patterns due to local topographic, weather, and vegetation characteristics. Previous studies have suggested that with years of observational data, these snow distribution patterns can be statistically integrated into a snow process modeling workflow. Recent advances in snow hydrology and machine learning (ML) have increased our ability to predict snowpack distribution using in-situ observations, remote sensing data sets, and simple landscape characteristics that can be easily obtained for most environments. Here, we propose a hybrid approach to couple a ML snow distribution pattern (MLSDP) map with a physics-based, snow process model. We trained a random forest ML algorithm on tens of thousands of snow survey observations from a subarctic study area on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, collected during peak snow water equivalent (SWE). We validated hybrid model outputs using in-situ snow depth and SWE observations, as well as a light detection and ranging data set and a distributed temperature profiling sensor data set. When the hybrid results were compared with the physics-based method, the hybrid method more accurately depicted the spatial patterns of the snowpack, areas of drifting snow, and years when no in-situ observations were used in the random forest ML training data set. The hybrid method also showed improvements in root mean squared error at 61% of locations where time-series estimations of snow depth were observed. These results can be applied to any physics-based model to improve the snow distribution patterning to reflect observed conditions in high latitude and high elevation cold region environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗