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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Simulating organic aerosol in Delhi with WRF-Chem using the volatility-basis-set approach: exploring model uncertainty with a Gaussian process emulator

The nature and origin of organic aerosol in the atmosphere remain unclear. The gas–particle partitioning of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) that constitute primary organic aerosols (POAs) and the multigenerational chemical aging of SVOCs are particularly poorly understood. The volatility basis set (VBS) approach, implemented in air quality models such as WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry), can be a useful tool to describe emissions of POA and its chemical evolution. However, the evaluation of model uncertainty and the optimal model parameterization may be expensive to probe using only WRF-Chem simulations. Gaussian process emulators, trained on simulations from relatively few WRF-Chem simulations, are capable of reproducing model results and estimating the sources of model uncertainty within a defined range of model parameters. In this study, a WRF-Chem VBS parameterization is proposed; we then generate a perturbed parameter ensemble of 111 model runs, perturbing 10 parameters of the WRF-Chem model relating to organic aerosol emissions and the VBS oxidation reactions. This allowed us to cover the model's uncertainty space and to compare outputs from each run to aerosol mass spectrometer observations of organic aerosol concentrations and O:C ratios measured in New Delhi, India. The simulations spanned the organic aerosol concentrations measured with the aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS). However, they also highlighted potential structural errors in the model that may be related to unsuitable diurnal cycles in the emissions and/or failure to adequately represent the dynamics of the planetary boundary layer. While the structural errors prevented us from clearly identifying an optimized VBS approach in WRF-Chem, we were able to apply the emulator in the following two periods: the full period (1–29 May) and a subperiod period of 14:00–16:00 h LT (local time) on 1–29 May. The combination of emulator analysis and model evaluation metrics allowed us to identify plausible parameter combinations for the analyzed periods. We demonstrate that the methodology presented in this study can be used to determine the model uncertainty and to identify the appropriate parameter combination for the VBS approach and hence to provide valuable information to improve our understanding of OA production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Identification of hot water end-use process of electric water heaters from energy measurements

This paper presents an algorithm for the identification of parameters for a stochastic hot water end-use process that drives a homogeneous population of thermostatically controlled electric water heaters (EWH). Usually, only metered interval consumption data (kWh) is collected and the hot water end-use process is unobservable to utility and aggregators. However, the availability of EWHs for demand response (DR) is closely coupled with the hot water end-use process. In this context, the hot water end-use process is modeled as a two-state Markov chain (Use / No use), which causes the thermostatic ON-OFF switching process to behave as a Markov renewal process (MRP). A set of first passage-time problems is developed to obtain the moments of the transition probability densities of the MRP. These problems are addressed by establishing a system of coupled partial differential equations characterizing the temperature evolution of the EWH population. A key quantity in the methodology for estimating the parameters is the total time an EWH is ON within a period of interest. It is referred to as the total busy time. Total busy time in this approach is a random variable for which analytical expressions of the moments are developed as a function of the metered window length. The latter expressions become the basis of a hot water demand model identification algorithm which is validated using agent-based simulations of EWHs.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Isotherm modeling and techno-economic analysis of a TSA moving bed process using a tetraamine-appended MOF for NGCC applications

Tetraamine-appended metal-organic frameworks (MOF) are a new family of amine-functionalized MOF materials that show potential for CO 2 capture from flue gas conditions relevant to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants. This work presents isotherm modeling of the tetraamine-appended MOF Mg 2 (dobpdc)(3-4-3)(dobpdc 4- =4,4'-dioxidobiphenyl-3,3'dicarboxylate;3-4-3=N,N'bis(3-aminopropyl)-1,4-diaminobutane), process modeling, scale up, and a techno-economic optimization of a moving bed Temperature Swing Adsorption (TSA) process for carbon capture using this sorbent. This MOF exhibits a unique two-step CO 2 adsorption profile in three different pressure ranges. Thus, arctangent-based logistic functions and, quadratic and Langmuir models were employed to represent such isotherm behavior. The results of the isotherm model show good fitting vs the experimental data with an RMSE of 0.41. Here, to model the carbon capture process, the isotherm model was embedded into a moving bed contactor model, and this was used to simulate a TSA CO 2 capture cycle and evaluate cost-optimal designs considering flue gas from a -650 MWe NGCC power plant. The capital cost model consists of CAPEX correlations for reactors, compressors, ducting, etc., while the operating costs include steam, water, chemicals, and electricity (following NETL's quality guidelines for energy systems studies). A techno-economic optimization of the capture system was performed by using NETL's Framework for the Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty and Surrogates tool (FOQUS). Results suggest that a moving bed carbon capture system with tetraamine-appended MOF can be competitive compared to conventional MEA solvent-based capture processes for NGCC plants, when a heat recovery efficiency of at least 40% is achieved, and MOF materials can be produced at a cost below -$9/kg.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Formal verification and validation of run-to-completion style state charts using Event-B

State chart notations with ‘run to completion’ semantics are popular with engineers for designing controllers that react to environment events with a sequence of state transitions but lack formal refinement and rigorous verification methods. State chart models are typically used to design complex control systems that respond to environmental triggers with a sequential process. The model is usually constructed at a concrete level and verified and validated using animation techniques relying on human judgement. Event-B, on the other hand, is based on refinement from an initial abstraction and is designed to make formal verification by automatic theorem provers feasible. Abstraction and formal verification provide greater assurance that critical (e.g. safety or security) properties are not violated by the control system. In this paper, we introduce a notion of refinement into a ‘run to completion’ state chart modelling notation and leverage Event-B’s tool support for theorem proving. We describe the difficulties in translating ‘run to completion’ semantics into Event-B refinements and suggest a solution. We illustrate our approach and show how models can be validated at different refinement levels using our scenario checker animation tools. We show how critical invariant properties can be verified by proof despite the reactive nature of the system and how behavioural aspects of the system can be verified by testing the expected reactions using a temporal logic, model checking approach. To verify liveness, we outline a proof that the run to completion is deadlock-free and converges to complete the run.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multifidelity validation of digital surrogates using variable-density turbulent mixing models

In this study, ensembles of experimental data are presented and utilized to compare and validate two models used in the simulation of variable-density (Atwood = 0.22), compressible turbulent mixing. Though models of this kind (Reynolds averaged NavierStokes and large-eddy simulations) have been validated extensively with more canonical flows in previous studies, here the present approach offers novelty in the complexity of the geometry, the ensemble-based validation, and the uniformity of the computational framework on which the models are tested. Moreover, all experimental and computational tasks were completed by the authors which has led to a tightly coupled experimental configuration with its “digital twin.” The experimental divergent-shock-tube facility and its data acquisition methods are described and replicated in simulation space. A 2D Euler model which neglects the turbulent mixing at the interface is optimized to experimental data using a Gaussian process. This model then serves as the basis for both the 2D RANS and 3D LES studies that make comparisons to the mixing-layer data from the experiment. A relatively simple RANS model is shown to produce good agreement with experimental data only at late flow development times. The LES ensembles generally show good agreement with experimental data but display sensitivity to the characterization of initial conditions. Resolution-dependent behavior is also observed for certain higher-order statistics of interest. Overall, the LES model successfully captures the effects of divergent geometry, compressibility, and combined nonlinear instabilities inherent to the problem. The successful prediction of mixing width and its growth rate highlight the existence of three distinct regimes in the development of the instability, each with similarities to previously studied instabilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Assessment of Buffer-IPyC Thermomechanical Debonding Behavior Using New Experiment Strength Data in BISON

TRIstructural ISOtropic (TRISO) single sub-millimeter-diameter nuclear fuel particle consists of a spherical fuel kernel surrounded by four coating layers. During reactor operation, the TRISO coating layers are subjected to irradiation-induced dimensional changes and the associated thermomechanical behavior of each layer. One of the observed behaviors is gap formation between the buffer and IPyC layer due to the porous buffer’s irradiation-induced shrinkage exceeding that of the IPyC layer. To predict TRISO thermomechanical performance, multi-physics models have been built that are continually updated and refined. The BISON code is a finite element-based nuclear fuel performance code that may be used for TRISO particle simulations. One of the recent additions to the BISON code is the ability to model the process of layer debonding. This paper will focus on the simulation results of the improved BISON debonding model that will utilize updated strengths measured from irradiated TRISO fuel particles. The new experimental strength data from micromechanical tests of irradiated TRISO fuel samples were exercised in the BISON simulations and compared to baseline strength data to assess their applicability in the models. This also includes updated buffer-IPyC bond strengths to simulate layer delamination. Based on current experimental observations it is noted that the buffer-IPyC separation occurs not exactly at the junction of these two layers, but more on the side of the buffer layer. This improved modeling approach using experimental strength data to characterize buffer-IPyC debonding and its potential subsequent cracking will be presented in the paper along with comparisons to available experimental observations.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Assessment of buffer-IPyC thermomechanical debonding behavior using new experimental strength data in BISON

TRIstructural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel is a nuclear fuel commonly used in High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs). A single sub-millimeter-diameter TRISO fuel particle consists of a spherical fuel kernel surrounded by four coating layers: a low-density pyrocarbon buffer layer, an inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) layer, a silicon carbide (SiC) layer, and an outer pyrolytic carbon (OPyC) layer. The kernel is commonly made of UO2 or a mixture of uranium carbide and uranium oxide (UCO). During reactor operation, the TRISO coating layers are subjected to irradiation-induced dimensional changes and the associated thermomechanical behavior of each layer. One of the observed behaviors is gap formation between the buffer and IPyC layer due to the porous buffer’s irradiation-induced shrinkage exceeding that of the IPyC layer. Not all irradiated particles will experience buffer-IPyC gap formation. The debonding may be partial, or it may be nearly total. However, from post-irradiation examination of UCO TRISO fuels irradiated as part of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification Program, it was concluded that partial buffer-IPyC debonding was the most common type of buffer-IPyC interaction. To predict TRISO thermomechanical performance, multi-physics models have been built that are being continually updated and refined. The BISON code is a finite element-based nuclear fuel performance code that may be used for 1D, 2D, and 3D TRISO particle simulations. This code is used to calculate fuel temperature, kernel swelling, buffer densification, thermal and irradiation creep, fracture, and fission gas production and release. One of the recent additions to the BISON code is the ability to model the process of layer debonding. This paper will focus on the simulation results of the improved BISON debonding model that will utilize updated strengths measured from irradiated AGR TRISO fuel particles. The new experimental strength data from micromechanical tests of irradiated TRISO fuel samples were exercised in the BISON simulations and compared to baseline strength data to assess their applicability in the models. This also includes updated buffer-IPyC bond strengths to simulate layer delamination. Based on current experimental observations it is noted that the buffer-IPyC separation occurs not exactly at the junction of these two layers, but more on the side of the buffer layer. That observation is also implemented in the TRISO interface debonding model. This improved modeling approach using experimental strength data to characterize buffer-IPyC debonding and its potential subsequent cracking will be presented in the paper along with comparisons to available experimental observations.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Prediction of softening kinetics and recrystallization texture in non-isothermally annealed bulged tubes using CPFEM and CA models

A hierarchically coupled cellular automata (CA) model, crystal plasticity finite element method (CPFEM), and thermal finite element (FE) model is developed to predict the softening kinetics of the bulged steel tube during non-isothermal annealing. Through the developed model, the kinetics of softening mechanisms including static recovery (SRV) and static recrystallization (SRX), as well as the recrystallization texture are predicted. Later, the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami-Kohnogorov (JMAK) model based on the predicted SRX data is developed to interpret the recrystallization behavior of the material. To perform this study, diverse experimental tests including tube hydroforming (THF), annealing, uniaxial tensile test, hardness test, as well as microstructure observations through optical microscopy and Electron Backscatter Diffraction (EBSD) tests on steel tube are performed. The obtained experimental data are utilized to calibrate and verify the implemented CPFEM model for simulation of THF process, thermal FE model for prediction of the local temperature over annealing time, and CA algorithm for modeling of the softening kinetics and texture evolution throughout the annealing process. The study shows that the predicted deformation characteristics, softening kinetics, recrystallization texture and temperature profile during non-isothermal annealing are in good agreement with experimental data. During the annealing process, a total of four stages for the kinetics of softening mechanisms is observed: No softening; SRV only; SRV dominant; and SRX dominant. During the progress of SRX, the behavior of recrystallization is abruptly changed, confirming that two different mechanisms are controlling the kinetics of transformation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Uncertainty quantification for Multiphase-CFD simulations of bubbly flows: a machine learning-based Bayesian approach supported by high-resolution experiments

In this paper, we developed a machine learning-based Bayesian approach to inversely quantify and reduce the uncertainties of multiphase computational fluid dynamics (MCFD) simulations for bubbly flows. The proposed approach is supported by high-resolution two-phase flow measurements, including those by double-sensor conductivity probes, high-speed imaging, and particle image velocimetry. Local distributions of key physical quantities of interest (QoIs), including the void fraction and phasic velocities, are obtained to support the Bayesian inference. In the process, the epistemic uncertainties of the closure relations are inversely quantified while the aleatory uncertainties from stochastic fluctuations of the system are evaluated based on experimental uncertainty analysis. The combined uncertainties are then propagated through the MCFD solver to obtain uncertainties of the QoIs, based on which probability-boxes are constructed for validation. The proposed approach relies on three machine learning methods: feedforward neural networks and principal component analysis for surrogate modeling, and Gaussian processes for model form uncertainty modeling. The whole process is implemented within the framework of an open-source deep learning library PyTorch with graphics processing unit (GPU) acceleration, thus ensuring the efficiency of the computation. The results demonstrate that with the support of high-resolution data, the uncertainties of MCFD simulations can be significantly reduced. The proposed approach has the potential for other applications that involve numerical models with empirical parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Runtime performance of a GAMESS quantum chemistry application offloaded to GPUs

Summary Computational chemistry is at the forefront of solving urgent societal problems, such as polymer upcycling and carbon capture. The complexity of modeling these processes at appropriate length and time scales is mainly manifested in the number and types of chemical species involved in the reactions and may require models of several thousand atoms and large basis sets to accurately capture the chemical complexity and heterogeneity in the physical and chemical processes. The quantum chemistry package General Atomic and Molecular Electronic Structure System (GAMESS) has a wide array of methods that can efficiently and accurately treat complex chemical systems. In this work, we have used the GAMESS Effective Fragment Molecule Orbital (EFMO) method for electronic structure calculation of a challenging mesoporous silica nanoparticle (MSN) model surrounded by about 4700 water molecules to investigate the strong scaling and GPU offloading on hybrid CPU‐GPU nodes. Experiments were performed on the Perlmutter platform at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center. Good strong scaling and load balancing have been observed on up to 88 hybrid nodes for different settings of the execution parameters for the calculation considered here. When GPUs are oversubscribed by offloading work from multiple CPU processes, using the NVIDIA multi‐process service (MPS) has consistently reduced time to solution and energy consumed. Additionally, for some configuration parameter settings, oversubscription with MPS improved performance by up to 5.8% over the case without oversubscription.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ecological stoichiometry as a foundation for omics-enabled biogeochemical models of soil organic matter decomposition

Coupled biogeochemical cycles drive ecosystem ecology by influencing individual-to-community scale behaviors; yet the development of process-based models that accurately capture these dynamics remains elusive. Soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition in particular is influenced by resource stoichiometry that dictates microbial nutrient acquisition (‘ecological stoichiometry’). Despite its basis in biogeochemical modeling, ecological stoichiometry is only implicitly considered in high-resolution microbial investigations and the metabolic models they inform. State-of-science SOM decomposition models in both fields have advanced largely separately, but they agree on a need to move beyond seminal pool-based models. This presents an opportunity and a challenge to maximize the strengths of various models across different scales and environmental contexts. To address this challenge, we contend that ecological stoichiometry provides a framework for merging biogeochemical and microbiological models, as both explicitly consider substrate chemistries that are the basis of ecological stoichiometry as applied to SOM decomposition. We highlight two gaps that limit our understanding of SOM decomposition: (1) understanding how individual microorganisms alter metabolic strategies in response to substrate stoichiometry and (2) translating this knowledge to the scale of biogeochemical models. We suggest iterative information exchange to refine the objectives of high-resolution investigations and to specify limited dynamics for representation in large-scale models, resulting in a new class of omics-enabled biogeochemical models. Assimilating theoretical and modelling frameworks from different scientific domains is the next frontier in SOM decomposition modelling; advancing technologies in the context of stoichiometric theory provides a consistent framework for interpreting molecular data, and further distilling this information into tractable SOM decomposition models.

Carbon cycling↗

Multi-model Hydroclimate Projections for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the Southeastern United States

Abstract This study uses a high-resolution, process-based modeling framework to assess the impacts of changing climate on water resources for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the southeastern United States. A 33-member ensemble of hydrologic projections was generated using 3 distributed hydrologic models (Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, Variable Infiltration Capacity, and Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model) of different complexity. These hydrologic models were driven by dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected future climate simulations from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario, with 40 years each in baseline (1966–2005) and future (2011–2050) periods. The hydroclimate response, in general, projects an increase in mean seasonal precipitation, runoff, and streamflow. The high and low flows are projected to increase and decrease, respectively, in general, suggesting increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events and intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The uncertainty associated with the ensemble hydroclimate response, analyzed through an analysis of variance technique, suggests that the choice of climate model is more critical than the choice of hydrologic model for the studied region. This study provides in-depth insights of hydroclimate response and associated uncertainties to support informed decisions by water resource managers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electromagnetic Signatures from the Tidal Tail of a Black Hole—Neutron Star Merger

Black hole - neutron star (BH-NS) mergers are a major target for ground-based gravitational wave observatories. A merger can also produce an electromagnetic counterpart (a kilonova) if it ejects neutron-rich matter that assembles into heavy elements through r-process nucleosynthesis. We study the kilonova signatures of the unbound dynamical ejecta of a BH-NS merger. We take as our initial state the results from a numerical relativity simulation and then use a general relativistic hydrodynamics code to study the evolution of the ejecta with parameterized r-process heating models. The unbound dynamical ejecta is initially a flattened, directed tidal tail largely confined to a plane. Heating from the r-process inflates the ejecta into a more spherical shape and smooths its small-scale structure, though the ejecta retains its bulk directed motion. We calculate the electromagnetic signatures using a 3D radiative transfer code and a parameterized opacity model for lanthanide-rich matter. The light curve varies with viewing angle because of two effects: asphericity results in brighter emission for orientations with larger projected areas, while Doppler boosting results in brighter emission for viewing angles more aligned with the direction of bulk motion. For typical r-process heating rates, the peak bolometric luminosity varies by a factor of ~3 with orientation while the peak in the optical bands varies by ~3 magnitudes. The spectrum is blueshifted at viewing angles along the bulk motion, which increases the V-band peak magnitude to ~-14 despite the lanthanide-rich composition.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Segmentation Model Distillation [Poster]

The process of training object detection (OD) or image segmentation model requires both a substantial amount of data and technical knowledge, which often creates challenges in applying these types of models to their full potential. In order to streamline the process of developing these models, we propose a new pipeline where a foundation model assists in the dataset generation. Then this resulting dataset is used to fine-tune a fast light-weight model to perform the custom segmentation or OD. This resulting model is also fit for real-time image segmentation, such as in a video stream.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Learning Coagulation Processes With Combinatorial Neural Networks

Abstract Simulating the evolution of a coagulating aerosol or cloud of droplets in a key problem in atmospheric science. We present a proof of concept for modeling coagulation processes using a novel combinatorial neural network (CombNN) architecture. Using two types of data from a high‐detail particle‐resolved aerosol simulation, we show that CombNN models outperform standard neural networks and are competitive in accuracy with traditional state‐of‐the‐art sectional models. These CombNN models could have application in learning coarse‐grained coagulation models for multi‐species aerosols and for learning coagulation models from observed size‐distribution data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler↗

Coal-based Bricks & Blocks (CBBs): Process Development to Prototype Fabrication Coupled with Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Survey

Coal-based bricks and blocks (CBBs) were formulated using anthracite and thermoplastic binder. Lab scale test composites were formed by hot-press molding and commercial extrusion for test articles and for a full-scale prototype. Formulations and test matrices followed a systematic experimental design to examine the effects of and interactions among three primary independent variables: a) thermoplastic type, b) weight fractions of binder relative to the total anthracite weight, and c) relative proportions of large versus small (milled) anthracite size fractions. Technical performance metrics include compressive strength, modulus, porosity/permeability and density. These DoE studies establish composition-property relations and identify the best combination for any desired property of interest – in particular, strength. Based on CBB composition and fabrication process, validated against technical performance metrics, a techno-economic analysis was constructed which incorporated a process flow model, engineering design (with scaling), and calculated capital plus operating costs. Based on measured property metrics and estimated process economics and a projected price by TEA (techno-economic analysis), building and construction target markets were identified by a market survey assessment. With known cost, price, performance metrics and competitive advantages for CBBs matched with commercial applications/uses, a technical gap analysis was performed to identify further development required for scale-up and commercialization.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗