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The Role of Magnetic Reconnection in Energizing Protons and Heavier Ions at the Heliospheric Current Sheet

During near-Sun crossings of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observed populations of high-energy protons and heavier ions, indicating possible energization by magnetic reconnection up to 10 s–100 s keV nucleon −1 . Here we study ion acceleration by magnetic reconnection at the HCS. To estimate ion energization, we solve the Parker transport equation coupled to a large-scale 2D MHD reconnection simulation. We find that multiple ion species develop power-law distributions with both spectral index and high-energy cutoff E max consistent with in situ data. By accounting for the injection physics determined by kinetic simulations, we confirm that the charge-to-mass ratio scales as E max ∝ (Q/M) α with α ∼ 0.8–1.1, approximately consistent with PSP measurements in the broader range α ∼ 0.6–1.7. In the limit where ions are injected at the same energy per nucleon, α can be as low as ∼0.3. These findings further support the role of magnetic reconnection in producing high-energy heavy ions at the HCS.

Murtas, Giulia [West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, W↗

Galactic distribution of pulsars

The density distributions of pulsars in luminosity, period, Z-distance, and galactocentric distance were derived, using a uniform sample of pulsars detected during a 408-MHz pulsar survey at Jodrell Bank. There are indications of a fine-scale structure in the spatial distributions and evidence that there is a general correlation with other galactic populations and the overall spiral structure. The electron layer in our galaxy is shown to be wider than the pulsar layer and uniform on a large scale. The number of pulsars in the galaxy has been estimated and used to derive the pulsar birthrate.

Seiradakis, J. H.↗

A comparison of energetic ions in the plasma depletion layer and the quasi-parallel magnetosheath

Energetic ion spectra measured by the Active Magnetospheric Particle Tracer Explorers/Charge Composition Explorer (AMPTE/CCE) downstream from the Earth's quasi-parallel bow shock (in the quasi-parallel magnetosheath) and in the plasma depletion layer are compared. In the latter region, energetic ions are from a single source, leakage of magnetospheric ions across the magnetopause and into the plasma depletion layer. In the former region, both the magnetospheric source and shock acceleration of the thermal solar wind population at the quasi-parallel shock can contribute to the energetic ion spectra. The relative strengths of these two energetic ion sources are determined through the comparison of spectra from the two regions. It is found that magnetospheric leakage can provide an upper limit of 35% of the total energetic H(+) population in the quasi-parallel magnetosheath near the magnetopause in the energy range from approximately 10 to approximately 80 keV/e and substantially less than this limit for the energetic He(2+) population. The rest of the energetic H(+) population and nearly all of the energetic He(2+) population are accelerated out of the thermal solar wind population through shock acceleration processes. By comparing the energetic and thermal He(2+) and H(+) populations in the quasi-parallel magnetosheath, it is found that the quasi-parallel bow shock is 2 to 3 times more efficient at accelerating He(2+) than H(+). This result is consistent with previous estimates from shock acceleration theory and simulati ons.

Fuselier, Stephen A.↗

Analysis of helium-rich subdwarf O stars. 1: NLTE models, methods, and fits for 21 Palomar Green survey sdOs

Atmospheric parameters for 21 helium-rich hot subdwarf O stars from the Palomar Green survey are found from fits of non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) models to optical spectra. About 250 new NLTE models in the parameter range T(sub eff) from 35,000 to 65,000 K, log (g) from 4.0 to 6.5, and epsilon(He) from 50% He to 99% He have been calculated. A fit for each object is presented. Estimated distances and luminosities are calculated, assuming a mass of 0.5 solar masses. Large distances above the Galactic plane are found, and this implies that the majority of the sdO stars belong to a different stellar population than the sdB, planetary nebulae and white dwarf stars. Possibilities may include the halo and a 'thick disk.' Kinematical data from the literature are also discussed in view of the found distances. Five of the stars have been observed, modeled, and analyzed by Dreizler et al., and significant differences exist between their results and ours for these stars. The reason for these differences is not yet known, but the problem does not alter the conclusions about population membership that we present.

Thejll, P.↗

Investigating Downscaling Methods and Evaluating Climate Models for Use in Estimating Regional Water Resources in Mountainous Regions under Changing Climatic Conditions

The purpose of this three-year study is to develop and evaluate techniques to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of climate change in mountainous areas. Three main objectives are set out in the proposal. (1) To develop and evaluate transfer functions to link tropospheric circulation to regional snowfall. (2) To evaluate a suite of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for use in estimating synoptic scale circulation and the resultant regional snowfall. And (3) to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of changing climate in the two case study areas: the Upper Colorado River basin, and the Catskill Mountains of southeastern New York State. Both regions provide water to large populations.

Frei, Allan↗

Facility Targeting, Protection and Mission Decision Making Using the VISAC Code

The Visual Interactive Site Analysis Code (VISAC) has been used by DTRA and several other agencies to aid in targeting facilities and to predict the associated collateral effects for the go, no go mission decision making process. VISAC integrates the three concepts of target geometric modeling, damage assessment capabilities, and an event/fault tree methodology for evaluating accident/incident consequences. It can analyze a variety of accidents/incidents at nuclear or industrial facilities, ranging from simple component sabotage to an attack with military or terrorist weapons. For nuclear facilities, VISAC predicts the facility damage, estimated downtime, amount and timing of any radionuclides released. Used in conjunction with DTRA's HPAC code, VISAC also can analyze transport and dispersion of the radionuclides, levels of contamination of the surrounding area, and the population at risk. VISAC has also been used by the NRC to aid in the development of protective measures for nuclear facilities that may be subjected to attacks by car/truck bombs.

Morris, Robert H.↗

Recent Results from the Goldstone Orbital Debris Radar: 2016-2017

Since 1993, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has used the Goldstone Orbital Debris Radar (Goldstone) to sample statistically the orbital debris environment. Due to the sensitivity of this radar, which can detect an approximately 3 mm-diameter conducting sphere at 1,000 km, it has filled an important role in the characterization of the sub-centimeter-sized orbital debris population. Through the years, the capabilities of this system have increased – recent updates include increased receiver bandwidth and a change in the bi-static observation geometry – both of which enhance the radar’s ability to estimate orbital parameters. In 2016, dual polarization capability was added, making this the first year where both right- and left-hand circularly polarized information was available from this sensor. This additional polarization information may enable better characterization of sub-centimeter-sized particles in low Earth orbit, particularly since the receiver triggers on reflected energy from both left- and right-handed circular polarizations independently. In this paper, we present measurements and results derived from data taken during the calendar years (CY) 2016-2017 by Goldstone and compare this dataset to measurements taken by the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) during a similar timeframe.

Murray, James↗

Ocean current patterns drive the worldwide colonization of eelgrass (Zostera marina)

Currents are unique drivers of oceanic phylogeography and thus determine the distribution of marine coastal species, along with past glaciations and sea-level changes. Here we reconstruct the worldwide colonization history of eelgrass (Zostera marina L.), the most widely distributed marine flowering plant or seagrass from its origin in the Northwest Pacific, based on nuclear and chloroplast genomes. We identified two divergent Pacific clades with evidence for admixture along the East Pacific coast. Two west-to-east (trans-Pacific) colonization events support the key role of the North Pacific Current. Time-calibrated nuclear and chloroplast phylogenies yielded concordant estimates of the arrival of Z. marina in the Atlantic through the Canadian Arctic, suggesting that eelgrass-based ecosystems, hotspots of biodiversity and carbon sequestration, have only been present there for ~243 ky (thousand years). Mediterranean populations were founded ~44 kya, while extant distributions along western and eastern Atlantic shores were founded at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (~19 kya), with at least one major refuge being the North Carolina region. The recent colonization and five- to sevenfold lower genomic diversity of the Atlantic compared to the Pacific populations raises concern and opportunity about how Atlantic eelgrass might respond to rapidly warming coastal oceans.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quarterly Research Performance Progress Report (Q8)

As part of Task 1, we have started by testing our modeling capabilities by reproducing isothermal DFIT simulations presented in the literature. Once satisfied with the results we have started by targeting the modeling of the DFITs at conducted at well 58-32. We have a identified a specific test (cycle 4 in zone 2) as the most interesting to be model with GEOS hydraulic fracturing module. Thus, we have first produced results with an isothermal model and adjusted model parameters to get a satisfying match with field pressure data. The, we have added thermal effects and compared the modeling results with and without thermal effects to estimate how thermal effects may influence test interpretation. Models seem to suggest that, for small volumes of fluid, thermal effects are moderate. In Task 2, we have adapted GEOS phase-field formulation to be able to simulate near-wellbore hydraulic fracture nucleation and propagation. We have devised a novel formulation that, compared to other existing ones, incorporates rock strengths. We have submitted a journal publication about our work. We are currently employing this phase-field formulation to model the experiments taking place at U Pitt and help us understand the effect of various parameters. In Task 3, we have built a model of the region surround well 16A and have started modeling stage 3 stimulation because of its simpler planar geometry. After calibrating simulation parameters using known analytical solutions, we have simulated the stage 3 stimulation using our isothermal hydraulic fracturing module, varying the permeability field, the stress conditions including different physics to get a better understanding of the numerical challenges and of the effects of varying these parameters on the simulation results. In Task 4 laboratory experimentation, a set of specialized drilling and injection tools has been customized and constructed to accommodate an inclined well with an orientation of up to 30 degrees relative to material anisotropy or principal stress axes. These inclined samples have also undergone thermal stress and hydraulic fracturing at a temperature of 190 degrees Celsius. Furthermore, both vertical and deviated sampling testing setups enable an extended analysis of post-peak pressure behaviors, facilitating post-test pressure analyses such as the G-function, step rate, and fracture reopening measurements. Thus, the key components of in-situ stress estimation can be extracted and validated through our experiment, providing a solid foundation for validating existing in-situ stress estimation theories or proposing new ones. Simultaneously, we are integrating computer vision techniques with traditional experimental fracture observation methods such as multi-overcore/slicing and water-penetration fracture observation. This combination will prove beneficial in populating the hydraulic fracture patterns database, generated under challenging EGS conditions. This approach aims to deepen our understanding of the complexities in EGS reservoirs and pave the way for future data-driven investigations. Additionally, PITT has also equipped the ELE International compression machine, which is now prepared for conducting indirect tensile and fracture toughness tests. These tests will aid in characterizing how rock fabrics influence the resulting fracture patterns. Additionally, we have completed the required personnel training and gained access to Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) for conducting more detailed characterization and analysis of rock fabrics, as well as the examination of thermal and hydraulically induced fracture patterns. Thus, the PITT team has effectively demonstrated the capabilities of our experimental apparatuses in exploring the thermal effects, well deviation angles, material anisotropy, and operational choices (such as circulation rate, injection fluid viscosity, and injection rate) and their impact on pressure responses and fracture trajectories under the Utah FORGE conditions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A spatially regularized detector for emergent/re-emergent disease outbreaks

Early detection of outbreaks caused by emergent pathogens, using epidemiological surveillance data i.e., daily case counts, is difficult. This is because the data tend to be noisy during the early epoch of the outbreak. In contrast, the spread-rate of the disease tends to be well-behaved, as it depends only on the mixing patterns of the population and the characteristics of the pathogen, neither of which behave erratically in space-time. In this report, we explore whether the spread-rate can be used for epidemiological surveillance, conditional on case count data. Estimating the spread-rate from case count data allows us to exploit exogenous information, e.g., incubation period distributions etc., which can considerably smooth out any erratic temporal behavior. Further, epidemiological dynamics are spatially correlated, and if case counts are available for multiple areal units e.g., counties, these correlations could potentially be used to suppress noise in the early epoch data. These exogenous information and structure are not exploited by conventional syndromic surveillance detectors to extract a well-behaved latent variable for monitoring purposes. The technical challenge lies in the estimation of the spread-rate field jointly over a collection of areal units; further, the spread-rate varies over time. We develop a method based on mean-field variational inference to approximately estimate the spread-rate field, using a Gaussian Random Field Model for spatial regularization. The method is tested on the estimation of spread-rate in the thirty-three counties of New Mexico and detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave in September 2020. We find that the method is scalable, but underestimates the uncertainty in the estimated spread-rate field. We detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 wave a week ahead of conventional syndromic surveillance algorithms, but our simplistic detection algorithm, based on simple anomaly detection, suffers from a high false positive rate, similar to conventional detectors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Impact cratering history of the Saturnian satellites

The impact flux history of the Saturn system has been modelled, and absolute ages estimated. The model assumes that the general history of impact flux was similar to that of the inner solar system and that the dominant source of material in the postaccretionary phases was external to the Saturn system. Population I and II craters represent the synheavy and postheavy bombardment periods, respectively. Observed crater densities are representative of the actual ages and do not appear to be saturation-equilibrium surfaces. It is concluded that some of the satellites have geologic histories which extend to about 3.5 b.y. Significant endogenic resurfacing has occurred on several satellite surfaces, which indicates that thermal conditions and material compositions are more complicated than might have been anticipated prior to Voyager encounters.

Plescia, J. B.↗

The location of the Ca II ions in the beta Pictoris disk

Echelle spectra of beta Pictoris have been obtained in the region of the Ca II 8542A line which arises from the metastable 3d 2D5/2 level. A narrow, weak, circumstellar absorption line is seen at the stellar radial velocity. A simple theory is developed of the radiative pumping of the metastable levels of the Ca II ions by the radiation from the star at the H and K lines. The relatively large fractional population, N3(Ca II)/N1(Ca II) of roughly 0.05, observed for the metastable level then requires that the calcium absorbers be largely concentrated within about 1 AU of the star. This result confirms two previous, independent estimates of the location of this gas. A time-variable circumstellar component of the 8542A line also is found at an infall velocity of about 15 km/s.

Hobbs, L. M.↗

Electric field measurements in the vicinity of noctilucent clouds and PMSE

We report mesospheric electronic field structure in the vicinity of noctilucent clouds (NLC) and polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSEs) measured on the DECIMALS-B rocket payload launched during the international rocket-radar campaign NLC-91 from Esrange, Sweden on August 10, 1991. Unusually large vertical E- fields, E(sub Z), about 100-300 mV/m on ascent and greater than 1 V/m on descent were detected at 82.5-84.5 km. The region of the large E(sub Z) was clearly limited by the NLC layer on the bottom and by the distinctly separated PMSE layer on the top. A narrow negative peak in the E(sub Z) height profile observed on ascent in the lower part of the NLC layer was apparently caused by the interaction of the field mill with impacting NLC particles possibly carrying negative charge. If the impact signature is due to single particles, their size is estimated to at least 0.5 microns and their concentration about 10(exp -4)/cu cm locally. Based on the light-scattering properties of NLC such massive particles can only be a minor part of the NLC population.

Zadorozhny, Alexander M.↗

SEDS: The Spitzer Extended Deep Survey. Survey Design, Photometry, and Deep IRAC Source Counts

The Spitzer Extended Deep Survey (SEDS) is a very deep infrared survey within five well-known extragalactic science fields: the UKIDSS Ultra-Deep Survey, the Extended Chandra Deep Field South, COSMOS, the Hubble Deep Field North, and the Extended Groth Strip. SEDS covers a total area of 1.46 deg(exp 2) to a depth of 26 AB mag (3sigma) in both of the warm Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) bands at 3.6 and 4.5 micron. Because of its uniform depth of coverage in so many widely-separated fields, SEDS is subject to roughly 25% smaller errors due to cosmic variance than a single-field survey of the same size. SEDS was designed to detect and characterize galaxies from intermediate to high redshifts (z = 2-7) with a built-in means of assessing the impact of cosmic variance on the individual fields. Because the full SEDS depth was accumulated in at least three separate visits to each field, typically with six-month intervals between visits, SEDS also furnishes an opportunity to assess the infrared variability of faint objects. This paper describes the SEDS survey design, processing, and publicly-available data products. Deep IRAC counts for the more than 300,000 galaxies detected by SEDS are consistent with models based on known galaxy populations. Discrete IRAC sources contribute 5.6 +/- 1.0 and 4.4 +/- 0.8 nW / square m/sr at 3.6 and 4.5 micron to the diffuse cosmic infrared background (CIB). IRAC sources cannot contribute more than half of the total CIB flux estimated from DIRBE data. Barring an unexpected error in the DIRBE flux estimates, half the CIB flux must therefore come from a diffuse component.

Spitzer↗

Model of Operation-and-Maintenance Costs for Photovoltaic Systems

This article presents a method for calculating costs associated with operation and maintenance (O&M) of photovoltaic (PV) systems. It compiles details regarding the cost and frequency of multiple O&M services to estimate annual O&M costs ($\$$/year) for each year of an analysis period, the net present value ($\$$) of life cycle costs accumulated over the analysis period, and the reserve account amount ($\$$). Here we show that this method is an improvement over the previous averaged or levelized per-unit ($\$$/kW/year) valuations for estimating PV O&M costs, because it allows a detailed selection of services to perform based on system size, market served (e.g., residential, commercial, or utility), type and configuration of system components (e.g., micro-, string or central inverter) and site and environmental conditions (e.g., snow, pollen, bird populations). This model also distinguishes costs that vary from year to year and increase at different rates over time because of heuristic failure distributions (e.g. Weibull or Lognormal distribution) based on actuarial data for many of the services. This cost model was created by the PV O&M Working Group of researchers and industry, sponsored by DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office, and has been published in an on-line version hosted by SunSpec Alliance at apsuite.sunspec.org. A spreadsheet version is included with this paper as supplementary material.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Impacts of Intercontinental Transport of Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter on Human Mortality

Fine particulate matter with diameter of 2.5 microns or less (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality and can travel long distances, impacting air quality and health on intercontinental scales. We estimate the mortality impacts of 20 % anthropogenic primary PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursor emission reductions in each of four major industrial regions (North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia) using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions. We estimate that while 93-97 % of avoided deaths from reducing emissions in all four regions occur within the source region, 3-7 % (11,500; 95 % confidence interval, 8,800-14,200) occur outside the source region from concentrations transported between continents. Approximately 17 and 13 % of global deaths avoided by reducing North America and Europe emissions occur extraregionally, owing to large downwind populations, compared with 4 and 2 % for South and East Asia. The coarse resolution global models used here may underestimate intraregional health benefits occurring on local scales, affecting these relative contributions of extraregional versus intraregional health benefits. Compared with a previous study of 20 % ozone precursor emission reductions, we find that despite greater transport efficiency for ozone, absolute mortality impacts of intercontinental PM2.5 transport are comparable or greater for neighboring source-receptor pairs, due to the stronger effect of PM2.5 on mortality. However, uncertainties in modeling and concentration-response relationships are large for both estimates.

human health↗

Optical Observations of Space Debris

This viewgraph presentation reviews the use of optical telescopes to observe space debris. .It will present a brief review of how the survey is conducted, and what some of the significant results encompass. The goal is to characterize the population of debris objects at GEO, with emphasis on the faint object population. Because the survey observations extend over a very short arc (5 minutes), a full six parameter orbit can not be determined. Recently we have begun to use a second telescope, the 0.9-m at CTIO, as a chase telescope to do follow-up observations of potential GEO debris candidates found by MODEST. With a long enough sequence of observations, a full six-parameter orbit including eccentricity can be determined. The project has used STK since inception for planning observing sessions based on the distribution of bright cataloged objects and the anti-solar point (to avoid eclipse). Recently, AGI's Orbit Determination Tool Kit (ODTK) has been used to determine orbits, including the effects of solar radiation pressure. Since an unknown fraction of the faint debris at GEO has a high area-to-mass ratio (A/M), the orbits are perturbed significantly by solar radiation. The ODTK analysis results indicate that temporal variations in the solar perturbations, possibly due to debris orientation dynamics, can be estimated in the OD process. Additionally, the best results appear to be achieved when solar forces orthogonal to the object-Sun line are considered. Determining the A/M of individual objects and the distribution of A/M values of a large sample of debris is important to understanding the total population of debris at GEO

Seitzer, Patrick↗

Rising infrastructure inequalities accompany urbanization and economic development

Impending global urban population growth is expected to occur with considerable infrastructure expansion. However, our understanding of attendant infrastructure inequalities is limited, highlighting a critical knowledge gap in the sustainable development implications of urbanization. Using satellite data from 2000 to 2019, we examine country-level population-adjusted biases in infrastructure distribution within and between regions of varying urbanization levels and derive four key findings. First, we find long-run positive associations between infrastructure inequalities and both urbanization and economic development. Second, our estimates highlight increasing infrastructure inequalities across most of the countries examined. Third, we find greater future infrastructure inequality increases in the global south, where inequalities will rise more in countries with substantial urban primacy. Fourth, we find that infrastructure inequality may evolve differently than economic inequalities. Overall, advancing sustainable development vis-à-vis urbanization and economic development will require intentional infrastructure planning for spatial equity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗