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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
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DOE OSTI2024

Modulating Transition Metal Reactivity with Force

The reactivity and selectivity of a transition metal catalyst is intimately related to its ligand-sphere geometry, and, in many cases, the ideal ligand geometry for one step of a catalytic cycle is poorly matched to the ideal ligand geometry for another. For this reason, methods for reversibly modulating ligand geometry on the time scale of catalytic turnover or monomer enchainment are highly desirable. Mechanical force represents a heretofore untapped approach to modulate catalyst geometry and/or reactivity, with the potential to do so on the timescale of catalytic turnover or monomer enchainment. Macroscopic mechanical forces are large, directional and localized to an extent that differentiates them from other forms of energy input such as heat or light. Here, in this Concept, we describe our efforts to address the fundamental challenges associated with force-modulated transition metal catalysis by employing molecular force probe ligands comprising a stiff stilbene photoswitch tethered to rotationally flexible biaryl bisphosphine ligand. Our efforts to date include the modulation of catalytic activity through force-mediated ligand perturbations, quantification of the force-coupled ligand effects on the energetics of elementary organometallic transformations, and evaluation of the mechanisms of force transduction in these systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electron–phonon physics from first principles using the EPW code

EPW is an open-source software for ab initio calculations of electron–phonon interactions and related materials properties. The code combines density functional perturbation theory and maximally localized Wannier functions to efficiently compute electron–phonon coupling matrix elements, and to perform predictive calculations of temperature-dependent properties and phonon-assisted quantum processes in bulk solids and low-dimensional materials. Here, we report on significant developments in the code since 2016, namely: a transport module for the calculation of charge carrier mobility under electric and magnetic fields using the Boltzmann transport equation; a superconductivity module for calculations of phonon-mediated superconductors using the anisotropic multi-band Eliashberg theory; an optics module for calculations of phonon-assisted indirect transitions; a module for the calculation of small and large polarons without supercells; and a module for calculating band structure renormalization and temperature-dependent optical spectra using the special displacement method. For each capability, we outline the methodology and implementation and provide example calculations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating full-waveform inversion using source stacking: synthetic experiments at the global scale in a realistic 3-D earth model

SUMMARY The spectral element method is currently the method of choice for computing accurate synthetic seismic wavefields in realistic 3-D earth models at the global scale. However, it requires significantly more computational time, compared to normal mode-based approximate methods. Source stacking, whereby multiple earthquake sources are aligned on their origin time and simultaneously triggered, can reduce the computational costs by several orders of magnitude. We present the results of synthetic tests performed on a realistic radially anisotropic 3-D model, slightly modified from model SEMUCB-WM1 with three component synthetic waveform ‘data’ for a duration of 10 000 s, and filtered at periods longer than 60 s, for a set of 273 events and 515 stations. We consider two definitions of the misfit function, one based on the stacked records at individual stations and another based on station-pair cross-correlations of the stacked records. The inverse step is performed using a Gauss–Newton approach where the gradient and Hessian are computed using normal mode perturbation theory. We investigate the retrieval of radially anisotropic long wavelength structure in the upper mantle in the depth range 100–800 km, after fixing the crust and uppermost mantle structure constrained by fundamental mode Love and Rayleigh wave dispersion data. The results show good performance using both definitions of the misfit function, even in the presence of realistic noise, with degraded amplitudes of lateral variations in the anisotropic parameter ξ. Interestingly, we show that we can retrieve the long wavelength structure in the upper mantle, when considering one or the other of three portions of the cross-correlation time series, corresponding to where we expect the energy from surface wave overtone, fundamental mode or a mixture of the two to be dominant, respectively. We also considered the issue of missing data, by randomly removing a successively larger proportion of the available synthetic data. We replace the missing data by synthetics computed in the current 3-D model using normal mode perturbation theory. The inversion results degrade with the proportion of missing data, especially for ξ, and we find that a data availability of 45 per cent or more leads to acceptable results. We also present a strategy for grouping events and stations to minimize the number of missing data in each group. This leads to an increased number of computations but can be significantly more efficient than conventional single-event-at-a-time inversion. We apply the grouping strategy to a real picking scenario, and show promising resolution capability despite the use of fewer waveforms and uneven ray path distribution. Source stacking approach can be used to rapidly obtain a starting 3-D model for more conventional full-waveform inversion at higher resolution, and to investigate assumptions made in the inversion, such as trade-offs between isotropic, anisotropic or anelastic structure, different model parametrizations or how crustal structure is accounted for.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Proton’s gluon GPDs at large skewness and gravitational form factors from near threshold heavy quarkonium photoproduction

We study the exclusive near threshold photoproduction of heavy quarkonium in the framework of the generalized parton distribution (GPD) factorization, taking the 𝐽/𝜓 production as an example. Because of the threshold kinematics, the Compton-like amplitudes are related to gluon GPDs at large skewness 𝜉, distinct from the common kinematics in asymptotic high energy where the skewness is typically small. We discuss the nature of large-𝜉 expansion of these amplitudes in terms of the moments of gluon GPDs in the large-𝜉 limit. Based on that, we propose several ways to extract the first few moments of the gluon GPDs from these amplitudes, with the leading ones corresponding to the gluonic gravitational or energy-momentum tensor form factors (GFFs). We apply these methods to analyze the recent near threshold 𝐽/𝜓 production measurements by the 𝐽/𝜓 007 experiment and GlueX Collaboration and find that the 𝜉 scaling of the measured differential cross sections is consistent with the asymptotic behavior. However, the current data are not accurate enough yet for a complete determination of the gluonic GFFs, and therefore we consider some prospects for better extractions in the future.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantum spin liquids bootstrapped from Ising criticality in Rydberg arrays

Arrays of Rydberg atoms constitute a highly tunable, strongly interacting venue for the pursuit of exotic states of matter. We develop a strategy for accessing a family of fractionalized phases known as quantum spin liquids in two-dimensional Rydberg arrays. We specifically use effective field theory methods to study arrays assembled from Rydberg chains tuned to an Ising phase transition that famously hosts emergent fermions propagating within each chain. This highly entangled starting point allows us to naturally access spin liquids familiar from Kitaev's honeycomb model—albeit from an entirely different framework. In particular, we argue that finite-range repulsive Rydberg interactions, which frustrate nearby symmetry-breaking orders, can enable coherent propagation of emergent fermions between the chains in which they were born. Delocalization of emergent fermions across the full two-dimensional Rydberg array yields a gapless Z 2 spin liquid with a single massless Dirac cone. Here, the Rydberg occupation numbers exhibit universal power-law correlations that provide a straightforward experimental diagnostic of this phase. We further show that explicitly breaking symmetries perturbs the gapless spin liquid into gapped, topologically ordered descendants: Breaking lattice symmetries generates toric-code topological order, whereas introducing Floquet-mediated chirality generates non-Abelian Ising topological order. In the toric-code phase, we analytically construct microscopic incarnations of non-Abelian defects, which can be created and transported by dynamically controlling the atom positions in the array. Our work suggests that appropriately tuned Rydberg arrays provide a cold-atoms counterpart of solid-state “Kitaev materials” and, more generally, it spotlights a different angle for pursuing experimental platforms for Abelian and non-Abelian fractionalization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Signature Analysis Utilizing a Dynamic Molten Salt Reactor Model for MC&A

Moving from traditional fixed fuel nuclear reactor systems to a mobile, dynamic fuel system that has dissolved special nuclear material in a molten salt is a paradigm shift in several respects. One major consideration is how to develop effective nuclear material controls and accounting for these novel reactor systems. The Molten Salt Reactor Experiment is one example of a critical molten salt system and provided a significant reference library based on the documented effort. But it was low thermal power that was not intended to reflect a commercial scale electricity production design. Therefore, to facilitate and assist vendors with domestic licensing considerations, research is underway to identify methods that could be used for domestic safeguards approaches for these novel reactor systems. This research presents the results of a signature analysis of data generated from three simulated scenarios using the molten salt demonstration reactor model defined in the Transient Simulation Framework of Reconfigurable Modules. Each scenario provides 1 hour isotope inventories over a 180 day period. The scenarios investigated provide test cases to examine if direct gamma-ray spectroscopy of the fuel can be used to identify changes comparing a base case (no reactivity control and fixed fission contribution) to an insertion of reactivity (10 pcm no change in fission composition) and a change in fission composition. The analysis demonstrates that monitoring the total count rate in a highly collimated high-resolution photon energy spectrum is sensitive to perturbations imposed into the reactor model. The total photon count rate changes ≈2% for the fission composition change and ≈4.5% for the reactivity insertion compared to the base case. However, both scenarios show an increase in the total photon count rate. The total photon count rate can be used to identify changes due to power (number of fissions) but not due to a change in the material undergoing fission. To distinguish between the two cases of increased power, the photon spectrum would require an intensive analysis technique. A photon peak count rate ratio analysis could be used to identify changes in the fissile material fission generation in the core through identification of a static peak that shows little variation to the source of fission and a highly varying peak. The photon peak strength will ultimately be determined by the isotope’s fission yield. A preliminary analysis investigating the coupling of the isotope’s fission yield and its concentration in the fuel salt derived from the modeling has been performed. A ratio analysis of the photon peak count rates of 140 La to 99 Mo demonstrated that the reactivity insertion creates a distinct difference in the ratio compared to the fission composition change scenario.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the Robustness of Network Community Structure Under Addition of Edges

Communities represent important functional modules in networked systems. A key goal in preserving such communities is understanding their robustness under perturbations. Previous research has studied the impact of node removals and edge removals on the community structure. However, the impact of edge additions on the robustness of the community structure is relatively unknown. Edge additions or false positive edges may simulate measurement errors or external exceptional events that threaten the functionality of networked systems. Here, we study the impact of edge additions on the community structure using Lancichinetti-Fortunato-Radicchi (LFR) benchmark networks. We show that, for a fixed network size, the impact of edge additions is greater on networks with initially weak community structure than on networks with strongly clustered structures. In addition, we find that the perception of the impact is also dependent on the community detection algorithm used to uncover communities. In particular, we found that modularity-based methods such as Leiden and Louvain are less affected than information-theoretic and message passing-based methods such as Infomap and Label Propagation. Our results demonstrate that edge addition can (a) significantly impact the community structure of networks based on their initial conditions, and (b) the perception of the impact is dependent on the community detection algorithm used. We describe limitations, open challenges, and how this methodology can inform the design of resilient networked systems under edge additions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plasma-Coupled Flow Reactor Studies of Low-Temperature Plasma Assisted Kinetics of Methanol Blended with CO2

Ignition technologies based on low-temperature plasmas (LTP) have the potential to operate next generation engines at elevated pressures and increased dilution limits promoting higher efficiencies. From a practical standpoint, research on LTP igniters has shown to enhance combustion and ignition, improve flame stability, and extend the dilution limits of combustion. All of the aforementioned gains are complemented with higher ignition efficiencies. However, the biggest challenge with incorporating this technology into engines is the knowledge gap of how exactly plasma chemistry effects can enhance the basic combustion phenomena. This coupled with the lack of validated kinetic mechanisms for plasma-combustion chemistry is the biggest obstruction to recognize efficient ignition, especially for application relevant fuels and biofuels. In order to comprehensively evaluate the effects of LTP on an oxygenated fuel specific system, this present study examines the kinetics of methanol plasma-assisted pyrolysis and oxidation using a custom-built plasma flow reactor (PFR). Experimental regimes are also further extended to understand the effects of adding CO2 to the mixture and its consequence on reaction kinetics. The PFR is installed with a dielectric-barrier discharge (DBD) configuration to induce LTP into the fuel mixture. Non-equilibrium plasmas are generated by high-voltage pulses (nearing 20 KV) administered by a plasma pulser at high-pulse repetition rates (up to 10 kHz). In order to better understand and isolate plasma chemistry and its effect on neutral chemistry, the experiments were carried out by heavily diluting reactive mixtures in nitrogen at near isothermal conditions. This suppresses the effect of exothermic reactions on chemistry allowing stable intermediates and products to be detected and quantified using ex-situ GC/MS diagnostic methods. Experiments were carried out at 0.5 atm pressure and over a wide range of temperatures from 523 K to 1203 K. Experimental results depicted the enhancement in intermediates production as well as overall lower temperatures required for complete fuel consumption in the plasma specific cases as opposed to their pure thermal counterpart. Formation of oxygenated and nitrile compounds specific to plasma assisted pyrolysis cases illustrated the efficacy of LTP to introduce new reaction pathways accelerating fuel decomposition. Increase in reactivity at lower temperatures is sought to be an effect induced by plasma chemistry postulating the acceleration in intermediates production. The onset of thermal ignition in plasma assisted oxidation is seen 200 K earlier than thermal oxidation highlighting efficient fuel conversion to final byproducts. Enhanced collisional processes afforded by LTP is seen to perturb reaction pathways between oxygenated fuel radicals and N-atoms to alter overall chemical reactivity. New insights into kinetics are gained from this study highlighting governing plasma assisted combustion (PAC) pathways for oxygenated fuel reaction chemistry. The results from this study can be used to develop future mechanisms specific to plasma chemistry which can bridge the mechanistic knowledge gap for LTP ignition so that future engines can adopt LTPs in their design for efficient combustion.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis and characterization of isotopically barcoded nickel, molybdenum, and tungsten taggants for intentional nuclear forensics

Intentional nuclear forensics is a concept wherein the deliberate addition of benign and persistent material signatures to nuclear material can be used to reduce the time between the discovery of material outside of regulatory control and determination of its original provenance. One concept within intentional nuclear forensics involves the use of perturbed stable isotopes to generate unique isotope ratio “barcodes” to encode information (e.g., production batch, location, etc.) and track material throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. Synthesis of taggant species of nickel (Ni), molybdenum (Mo), and tungsten (W) was undertaken via a double-spike mechanism, wherein two highly enriched isotopes of interest per elemental taggant were mixed to form an enriched “double-spike” which was subsequently isotopically diluted with bulk material having a natural isotopic composition. Two taggant species perturbing isotopic ratios, alpha (α) and beta (β), for each of Ni, Mo, and W were synthesized. Independent measurements of double spikes and alpha and beta taggant species agreed within uncertainty and are clearly resolvable from natural compositions. High-precision analyses were independently performed by MC-ICP-MS at two U.S. National Laboratories, with consensus values and uncertainties calculated for all samples. Observed isotopic perturbations in the final taggant species measured on the order of hundreds to thousands of permille (‰) with respect to natural for isotope ratios of interest (e.g., 60 Ni/ 58 Ni, 100 Mo/ 98 Mo, 186 W/ 183 W). Discrepancies between modeled and measured isotopic compositions were observed and are largely attributed to imprecise vendor assay values for starting materials. Using measured starting material compositions as inputs for the mixing model improved the level of agreement between predicted and measured α and β taggant isotope ratios. Overall, characterization of all taggant species demonstrates that this “barcode” concept could have viability for use in nuclear forensics. Finally, it is expected that for any two-isotope mixing array dozens of isotopic barcodes could be encoded into a material system and subsequently resolved utilizing modern mass spectrometric methods.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2021

Clustering in massive neutrino cosmologies via Eulerian Perturbation Theory

We introduce an Eulerian Perturbation Theory to study the clustering of tracers for cosmologies in the presence of massive neutrinos. Our approach is based on mapping recently-obtained Lagrangian Perturbation Theory results to the Eulerian framework. We add Effective Field Theory counterterms, IR-resummations and a biasing scheme to compute the one-loop redshift-space power spectrum. To assess our predictions, we compare the power spectrum multipoles against synthetic halo catalogues from the QUIJOTE simulations, finding excellent agreement on scales k ≲ 0.25 h Mpc-1. One can obtain the same fitting accuracy using higher wave-numbers, but then the theory fails to give a correct estimation of the linear bias parameter. We further discuss the implications for the tree-level bispectrum. Finally, calculating loop corrections is computationally costly, hence we derive an accurate approximation wherein we retain only the main features of the kernels, as produced by changes to the growth rate. As a result, we show how FFTLog methods can be used to further accelerate the loop computations with these reduced kernels.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Online Optimization of NSLS-II Dynamic Aperture and Injection Transient (Facility Improvement Project)

The Facility Improvement Project (FIP) “Methods of online optimization of NSLS-II storage ring concurrent with user operations” proposed and approved in 2018 is now complete. The first goal is the online optimization of nonlinear beam dynamics to increase the beam lifetime and injection efficiency. We have developed a model-independent optimization technique using advanced algorithms. Using this technique, we increased the NSLS-II dynamic aperture by 20% and reduced the amplitude-dependent tune shift by a factor of two. We applied sextupole optimization to the new high-chromaticity lattice, which has been developed to improve the beam stability and to increase the single-bunch beam intensity. We were able to double the injection efficiency and exceed 90%. The second goal of this project is to provide the top-off injection with minimized perturbations of the beamline user operations. To achieve the transparent injection, we optimize the matching of four storage ring injection kickers reducing the perturbation of the stored beam orbit. The first application of the online optimization resulted in a reduction of the amplitude of residual beam oscillation by a factor of six, from 1300 μm down to 200 μm. Further improvement was limited by the timing jitter of the trigger boards. Then, we replaced all trigger boards with a new design and reduced the timing jitter by a factor of five, from 5 ns down to 1 ns. This upgrade resulted in the injection transient reduction from 200 μm to 120 μm. To optimize the full set of kicker parameters, including the trigger timing, amplitude, and pulse width, we upgraded all kicker power supplies with the capability of tunable waveform width. As a result, we have reduced the injection transient to the limit of 60 μm.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overview of physics results from the ADITYA-U tokamak and future experiments

The ADITYA upgrade (ADITYA-U), a medium-sized (R 0 = 75 cm, a = 25 cm) conventional tokamak facility in India, has been consistently producing experiments findings by usingcircular and shaped-plasmas. Recognizing the plasma parameters aligning closely with the design parameters of circular limited plasmas, ADITYA-U shifted its focus toward exploring the operational regime for experimentation on saw-tooth and MHD phenomena. Moreover, ADITYA-U has made consistent advancements toward conducting preliminary plasma shaping experiments through the activation of top and bottom divertor coils utilizing hydrogen as well as deuterium fuels. Confinement is improved by a factor of ~1.5 in D 2 plasmas when compared to H 2 plasmas of ADITYA-U. Further, ADITYA-U operations emphasize preventing disruptions and runaway electrons (REs) to ensure safe operations for future fusion devices. Significant suppression of REs has been achieved in ADITYA-U with the application of pulsed localized vertical magnetic field (LVF) perturbation, thereby establishing the technique's independence from the tokamak device. The successful RE mitigation requires a critical threshold of LVF pulse magnitude, which is approximately 1% of the toroidal magnetic field, and a minimum duration of ~5 ms. Apart from this, several novel findings have been achieved in the ADITYA-U experiments, including the modification of sawtooth duration through gas-puff, the emergence of MHD-induced geodesic acoustic mode-like oscillations, the propagation of fast heat pulses induced by MHD activity, the control of RE dynamics through Gas-puffs, the propagation of pinch-driven cold-pulses, the transport and core accumulations of argon impurities, the mass dependency of plasma toroidal rotation and the detection of 'RICE' scaling, as well as the characterization of edge plasma using wall conditioning methods, such as glow discharge cleaning using a combination of Ar-H 2 mixture, localized wall cleaning by electron cyclotron resonant plasma, and the development of machine learning-based disruption predictions, will be discussed in this paper.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Splitting amplitudes at N 3 LO in QCD

In the limit where partons become collinear to each other, scattering amplitudes factorize into a product of universal, process-independent building blocks and scattering amplitudes involving fewer partons. We compute these universal building blocks — known as splitting amplitudes — for two collinear QCD partons up to third loop order in QCD. Our results describe arbitrary time-like splitting processes. Due to the violation of strict collinear factorization in space-like splitting processes, we specifically present space-like splitting amplitudes for three-parton QCD scattering amplitudes at third loop order. To achieve our results, we perform a collinear expansion of three-loop scattering amplitudes using a new expansion-by-subgraph technology, which is based on the method of regions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamical downfolding for localized quantum states

We introduce an approach to treat localized correlated electronic states in the otherwise weakly correlated host medium. Here, the environment is dynamically downfolded on the correlated subspace. It is captured via renormalization of one and two quasiparticle interaction terms which are evaluated using many-body perturbation theory. We outline the strategy on how to take the dynamical effects into account by going beyond the static limit approximation. Further, we introduce an efficient stochastic implementation that enables treating the host environment with a large number of electrons at a minimal computational cost. For a small explicitly correlated subspace, the dynamical effects are critical. We demonstrate the methodology by reproducing optical excitations in the negatively charged NV center defect in diamond, that agree with experimental results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Chiral propulsion: The method of effective boundary conditions

We propose to apply an “effective boundary condition” method to the problem of chiral propulsion. For the case of a rotating helix moving through a fluid at a low Reynolds number, the method amounts to replacing the original helix (in the limit of small pitch) by a cylinder, but with a special kind of partial slip boundary conditions replacing the non-slip boundary conditions on the original helix. These boundary conditions are constructed to reproduce far-field velocities of the original problem and are defined by a few parameters (slipping lengths) that can be extracted from a problem in planar rather than cylindrical geometry. We derive the chiral propulsion coefficients for spirals, helicoids, helically modulated cylinders and some of their generalizations using the introduced method. In the case of spirals, we compare our results with the ones derived by Lighthill and find a very good agreement. Here, the proposed method is general and can be applied to any helical shape in the limit of a small pitch. Furthermore, we have established that for a broad class of helical surfaces the dependence of the chiral propulsion on the helical angle θ is universal, x ~ cos θ sin 2θ with the maximal propulsion achieved at the universal angle θ m = tan –1 (1/√2) ≈ 35.26°.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Mira–Titan Universe – IV. High-precision power spectrum emulation

Modern cosmological surveys are delivering data sets characterized by unprecedented quality and statistical completeness; this trend is expected to continue in the future as new ground- and space-based surveys come online. In order to maximally extract cosmological information from these observations, matching theoretical predictions are needed. At low redshifts, the surveys probe the non-linear regime of structure formation where cosmological simulations are the primary means of obtaining the required information. The computational cost of sufficiently resolved large-volume simulations makes it prohibitive to run very large ensembles. Nevertheless, precision emulators built on a tractable number of high-quality simulations can be used to build very fast prediction schemes to enable a variety of cosmological inference studies. We have recently introduced the Mira–Titan Universe simulation suite designed to construct emulators for a range of cosmological probes. This gravity-only set of simulations covers the standard six cosmological parameters {ω m , ω b , σ 8 , $h, n_s, w_0$} and, in addition, includes massive neutrinos and a dynamical dark energy equation of state {ω ν , $w_a$}. In this paper, we present the final emulator for the matter power spectrum based on 111 cosmological simulations, each covering a (2.1 Gpc) 3 volume and evolving 3200 3 particles. In this work, an additional set of 1776 lower resolution simulations and TimeRG perturbation theory results for the power spectrum are used to cover scales straddling the linear to mildly non-linear regimes (maximum wavenumber $\textit{k}$ = 5 Mpc –1 ). The emulator provides predictions at the 2–3 percent level of accuracy over a wide range of cosmological parameters and is publicly released as part of this paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Benchmark estimate of the effect of anthropogenic emissions on the ocean surface

Abstract Investigations into the role of anthropogenic emissions in the occurrence of extreme weather often use a method that compares simulations of atmospheric climate models run under a factual scenario of historical boundary conditions observed during the period of the event against simulations run under a counterfactual scenario of what those boundary conditions might naturally have been over that same period in the absence of anthropogenic emissions. A particular requirement for this experiment design is an accurate estimation of ocean surface boundary conditions for use by the counterfactual natural simulations. Here we use output from the CMIP5 multi‐climate‐model archive to develop a robust estimate of sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions for use in counterfactual natural simulations, intended as a benchmark estimate to facilitate comparison across climate models and across studies. This development includes tests to ensure that the final estimate is stable from year‐to‐year and stable against other perturbations to the methodology, as well as consideration of the strengths and weaknesses in comparison to other available attributable warming estimates. While this estimate is tailored specifically for the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution Project, it can be used by related projects as well.

Stone, Dáithí A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

AP-Net: An atomic-pairwise neural network for smooth and transferable interaction potentials

Intermolecular interactions are critical to many chemical phenomena, but their accurate computation using ab initio methods is often limited by computational cost. The recent emergence of machine learning (ML) potentials may be a promising alternative. Useful ML models should not only estimate accurate interaction energies but also predict smooth and asymptotically correct potential energy surfaces. However, existing ML models are not guaranteed to obey these constraints. Indeed, systemic deficiencies are apparent in the predictions of our previous hydrogen-bond model as well as the popular ANI-1X model, which we attribute to the use of an atomic energy partition. As a solution, we propose an alternative atomic-pairwise framework specifically for intermolecular ML potentials, and we introduce AP-Net—a neural network model for interaction energies. The AP-Net model is developed using this physically motivated atomic-pairwise paradigm and also exploits the interpretability of symmetry adapted perturbation theory (SAPT). We show that in contrast to other models, AP-Net produces smooth, physically meaningful intermolecular potentials exhibiting correct asymptotic behavior. Initially trained on only a limited number of mostly hydrogen-bonded dimers, AP-Net makes accurate predictions across the chemically diverse S66x8 dataset, demonstrating significant transferability. On a test set including experimental hydrogen-bonded dimers, AP-Net predicts total interaction energies with a mean absolute error of 0.37 kcal mol−1, reducing errors by a factor of 2–5 across SAPT components from previous neural network potentials. The pairwise interaction energies of the model are physically interpretable, and an investigation of predicted electrostatic energies suggests that the model “learns” the physics of hydrogen-bonded interactions.

Glick, Zachary L. (ORCID:0000000309002849)↗