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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Autoconversion Representation in E3SMv2 Using an Ensemble of Large-Eddy Simulations of Low-Level Warm Clouds

In numerical atmospheric models that treat cloud and rain droplet populations as separate condensate categories, precipitation initiation in warm clouds is often represented by an autoconversion rate (Au), which is the rate of formation of new rain droplets through the collisions of cloud droplets. Being a function of the cloud droplet size distribution (DSD), the local Au is commonly parameterized as a function of DSD moments: cloud droplet number (n c ) and mass (q c ) concentrations. When applied in a large-scale model, the grid-mean Au must also include a correction, or enhancement factor, to account for the horizontal variability of the cloud properties across the model grid. In this study, we evaluate the Au representation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) climate model using large-eddy simulations (LES), which explicitly resolve cloud droplet spectra, and therefore the local Au, as well as its spatial variability. The analysis of an ensemble of warm low-level cloud cases shows that the E3SMv2 formulation represents the Au reasonably well compared to the horizontally averaged explicitly computed rate from LES. The agreement, however, comes from a combination of an underestimated E3SM-tuned local Au rate and an overestimated subgrid cloud variability enhancement factor. The latter bias is traced to neglecting the horizontal variability of n c and its co-variability with q c in parameterizing the grid-mean Au.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Immersion Freezing in Particle-Based Aerosol-Cloud Microphysics: A Probabilistic Perspective on Singular and Time-Dependent Models

Cloud droplets containing immersed ice-nucleating particles (INPs) may freeze at temperatures above the homogeneous freezing threshold temperature in a process referred to as immersion freezing. In modeling studies, immersion freezing is often described using either so-called “singular” or “time-dependent” parameterizations. Here, we compare both approaches and discuss them in the context of probabilistic particle-based (super-droplet) cloud microphysics modeling. First, using a box model, we contrast how both parameterizations respond to idealized ambient cooling rate profiles and quantify the impact of the polydispersity of the immersed surface spectrum on the frozen fraction evolution. Presented simulations highlight that the singular approach, constituting a time-integrated form of a more general time-dependent approach, is only accurate under a limited range of ambient cooling rates. The time-dependent approach is free from this limitation. Second, using a prescribed-flow two-dimensional cloud model, we illustrate the macroscopic differences in the evolution in time of ice particle concentrations in simulations with flow regimes relevant to ambient cloud conditions. The flow-coupled aerosol-budget-resolving simulations highlight the benefits and challenges of modeling cloud condensation nuclei activation and immersion freezing on insoluble ice nuclei with super-particle methods. The challenges stem, on the one hand, from heterogeneous ice nucleation being contingent on the presence of relatively sparse immersed INPs, and on the other hand, from the need to represent a vast population of particles with relatively few so-called super particles (each representing a multiplicity of real particles). We discuss the critical role of the sampling strategy for particle attributes, including the INP size, the freezing temperature (for singular scheme) and the multiplicity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation of Imperfect (n, 233 U) Data and Model

Conventional nuclear data evaluation methods using generalized linear least squares make the following assumptions: prior and posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of all model parameters and data are normal (Gaussian); the linear approximation is sufficiently accurate to minimize the cost function (even for nonlinear models); the model (e.g., of neutron cross section) and experimental data (including covariance data) are without defect and prior PDFs of parameters and measured data are known perfectly. Neglect of covariance between model parameters and measured data in conventional evaluations contributes to imperfections. These assumptions are inherent to the generalized linear least squares minimization method commonly used for resolved resonance region neutron cross section evaluations but are often not justified due to the presence of non-normal PDFs, nonlinear models (e.g., R-matrix formalism), and inherent imperfections in data and models (e.g., imperfect covariance data). Here, these assumptions are removed in a mathematical framework of Bayes’ theorem, which is implemented using the Metropolis-Hastings Monte Carlo method. Most importantly, new parameters are introduced to parameterize discrepancies between the theoretical model and measured data to quantify judgement about discrepancies or imperfections in a reproducible manner. An evaluation of 233U in the eV region using the ENDF-B/VIII.0 library and transmission data (Guber et al.) is presented, and posterior parameters are compared to those obtained by conventional evaluation methods. This example illustrates the effects of removing the most harmful assumption: that of model-data perfection.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The diurnal cycle of entrainment and detrainment in LES of the Southern Ocean driven by observed surface fluxes and waves

Empirical rules for both entrainment and detrainment are developed from LES of the Southern Ocean boundary layer when the turbulence, stratification, and shear cannot be assumed to be in equilibrium with diurnal variability in surface flux and wave (Stokes drift) forcing. A major consequence is the failure of downgradient eddy viscosity, which becomes more serious with Stokes drift and is overcome by relating the angle between the stress and shear vectors to the orientations of Lagrangian shear to the surface and of local Eulerian shear over 5 m. Thus, the momentum flux can be parameterized as a stress magnitude and this empirical direction. In addition, the response of a deep boundary layer to sufficiently strong diurnal heating includes boundary layer collapse and the subsequent growth of a morning boundary layer, whose depth is empirically related to the time history of the forcing, as are both morning detrainment and afternoon entrainment into weak diurnal stratification. Below the boundary layer, detrainment rules give the maximum buoyancy flux and its depth, as well a specific stress direction. Another rule relates both afternoon and nighttime entrainment depth and buoyancy flux to surface layer turbulent kinetic energy production integrals. These empirical relationships are combined with rules for boundary layer transport to formulate two parameterizations; one based on eddy diffusivity and viscosity profiles and another on flux profiles of buoyancy and of stress magnitude. Evaluations against LES fluxes show the flux profiles to be more representative of the diurnal cycle, especially with Stokes drift.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Precipitating Marine Stratocumulus Clouds in the E3SMv1 Atmosphere Model: A Case Study from the ARM MAGIC Field Campaign

This paper presents a process-oriented evaluation of precipitating stratocumulus and its transition to cumulus in version 1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) using comprehensive case-study observations from a field campaign of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program (ARM). The E3SMv1 single-column model (SCM) of the marine boundary layer and its low clouds and precipitation are compared to observations including subcloud drizzle retrievals from a combination of Doppler radar and lidar backscatter measurements. Additionally, the SCM is also compared to a large-eddy simulation (LES) of the same case. The combination of advanced remote sensing observations and LES is a powerful framework to evaluate the physical parameterizations of large-scale models. Given the observed large-scale environment, the E3SMv1 SCM realistically represents the evolution of clouds and boundary layer structure during the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition. The model well simulates the liquid water path and its diurnal cycle in the stratocumulus period as well as the two-layer vertical thermodynamic structure and lower cloud fraction in the transition period. E3SMv1’s success in simulating the cloud in the stratocumulus period permitted examination of its precipitation processes. Here problems were identified with E3SMv1 producing an unrealistically small subcloud precipitation fraction, an unrealistic double peak in the vertical profiles of precipitation mass, and drizzle that evaporates too close to the surface. Further model diagnostics determined that these unrealistic characteristics resulted from an overly long microphysics time step and an unrealistic parameterization of the precipitation fraction. These results imply that careful consideration of these issues is needed in order to better simulate precipitation processes in marine stratocumulus.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fast Computational Algorithms for Partial Differential Equations and Uncertainty Quantifications

This project concerned the construction, testing and analysis of computational algorithms for solving parameterized and stochastic partial differential equations. The study and understanding of equations of this type is of fundamental importance in numerous engineering and scientific applications. Examples include simulation of plasma dynamics in models of electric propulsion and nuclear fusion, simulation of multiphase flows, such as the flow of water, gas and oil in reservoirs, and structural analysis of the dependence of structures on materials. Parametrization is used in such settings when properties of the models such as viscosity of fluids or electric resistivity of materials are not precisely understood and instead are treated as random variables. The resulting solutions are themselves random, and having such solutions will enable engineers to use probabilistic methods to assess the likelihood of events, for example, whether a pollutant in a liquid will exceed a limit, and to use such analyses to develop ways to ensure positive outcomes. Construction of accurate (high resolution) computational solutions is expensive, requiring significant computer time and computational resources, and there is need to reduce computational cost to make simulation useful and effective. The aim of the project was to construct algorithms to efficiently compute surrogate solutions to parameterized problems to allow for efficient and accurate simulation. The technical approach used focused on two related strategies, based on rank-reduction methods and reduced-order models. These methods construct surrogate solutions of parameter-dependent models by projection or interpolation into low-dimensional approximation spaces. Cost savings are achieved if the low-dimensional spaces can be identified and constructed efficiently and if the resulting low-dimensional algebraic systems can be solved cheaply. Accomplishments include: Theoretical and empirical demonstration of the effectiveness of fast multigrid solution strategies for computing low-rank representations of parameter-dependent solutions to discrete partial differential equations, including the first proof establishing so-called textbook convergence properties for low-rank methods. Development of efficient solution algorithms for solving nonlinear parameter-dependent partial differential equations used in models of fluid dynamics. Developent of efficient algorithms for low-rank representation of solutions of time-dependent simulations of fluid dynamics using multi-dimensional tensor representations of solutions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding Processes Controlling the Temporal and Spatial Variations of PBL Structures Over the ARM SGP Site

The surface heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes are transferred to the atmosphere above through the planetary boundary layer (PBL), where vertical mixing due to turbulent eddies of different sizes plays critical roles. Therefore, reliably representing PBL processes in numerical models is critical for weather, climate, and air quality prediction. Currently, there are over ten PBL schemes that are selectable within the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, indicative of the challenges in capturing the impacts of turbulence within the PBL in models. Further improvements in PBL parameterizations are needed for both weather and climate models, as emphasized in many recent national reports, but require an advanced understanding of the underlying boundary layer processes from observations. This project takes advantage of Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) investments in the atmospheric boundary layer observations and Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) ARM Symbiotic Simulation and Observation (LASSO) simulations to characterize PBL structures, understand key physical processes controlling the mixed layer development, and to evaluate PBL parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Turbulent kinetic energy over large offshore wind farms observed and simulated by the mesoscale model WRF (3.8.1)

Abstract. Wind farms affect local weather and microclimates;hence, parameterizations of their effects have been developed for numerical weather prediction models.While most wind farm parameterizations (WFPs) include drag effects of wind farms, models differ on whether or not an additionalturbulent kinetic energy (TKE) source should be included in theseparameterizations to simulate the impact of wind farms on the boundary layer.Therefore, we use aircraft measurements above large offshore wind farms in stable conditions to evaluateWFP choices. Of the three case studies we examine, we find the simulated ambient backgroundflow to agree with observations of temperature stratification and winds. This agreement allows us toexplore the sensitivity of simulated wind farm effects with respect to modeling choicessuch as whether or not to include a TKE source, horizontal resolution, vertical resolutionand advection of TKE. For a stably stratified marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), a TKE source and a horizontal resolutionon the order of 5 km or finer are necessary to represent the impact of offshore wind farms on the MABL.Additionally, TKE advection results in excessively reduced TKE over the wind farms, which in turn causesan underestimation of the wind speed deficit above the wind farm. Furthermore, using fine verticalresolution increases the agreement of the simulated wind speed with satellite observations of surface wind speed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2014

Monitoring with Data Automata

We present a form of automaton, referred to as data automata, suited for monitoring sequences of data-carrying events, for example emitted by an executing software system. This form of automata allows states to be parameterized with data, forming named records, which are stored in an efficiently indexed data structure, a form of database. This very explicit approach differs from other automaton-based monitoring approaches. Data automata are also characterized by allowing transition conditions to refer to other parameterized states, and by allowing transitions sequences. The presented automaton concept is inspired by rule-based systems, especially the Rete algorithm, which is one of the well-established algorithms for executing rule-based systems. We present an optimized external DSL for data automata, as well as a comparable unoptimized internal DSL (API) in the Scala programming language, in order to compare the two solutions. An evaluation compares these two solutions to several other monitoring systems.

log analysis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

QBO Responses to Increased CO2: The Roles of Convection and SSTs

Long-term changes to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) remain uncertain. Recent multimodel investigations (Richter et al. 2020a, Butchart et al. 2020) suggest that QBO amplitude will weaken in the future, but trends in QBO period and stability are unclear. Additionally, the parameterizations that generate the QBO in CMIP6 models vary greatly, and about half of CMIP6 models do not represent the QBO at all (Richter et al. 2020b). Tropical convection is likely to play a role in QBO trends, yet a majority of gravity wave parameterizations in QBO-resolving models are fixed and cannot respond to changes in convection. We consider future changes of the QBO using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2.2, which has a realistic QBO produced partly through use of a non-orographic gravity wave drag scheme that explicitly links lower stratospheric momentum fluxes to convection (Rind et al., 2014, 2020; Orbe et al. 2020). The experiments include historical integrations and abrupt increases in CO which we use to probe the roles of convection and SST feedbacks. Overall, both the QBO period and amplitude decrease in response to CO2, and our results link the period response to changes in convection and the amplitude response to changes in upwelling.

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effects of random forest modeling decisions on biogeochemical time series predictions

Abstract Random forests (RF) are an increasingly popular machine learning approach used to model biogeochemical processes in the Earth system. While RF models are robust to many assumptions that complicate deterministic models, there are several important parameterization decisions for appropriate use and optimal model fit. We explored the role that parameter decisions, including training/testing data splitting strategies, variable selection, and hyperparameters play on RF goodness‐of‐fit by constructing models using 1296 unique parameter combinations to predict concentrations of nitrate, a key nutrient for biogeochemical cycling in aquatic ecosystems. Models were built on long‐term, publicly available water quality and meteorology time series collected by the National Estuarine Research Reserve monitoring network for two contrasting ecosystems representing freshwater and brackish estuaries. We found that accounting for temporal dependence when splitting data into training and testing subsets was key for avoiding over‐estimation of model predictive power. In addition, variable selection, the ratio of training to testing data, and to a lesser degree, variables per split and number of trees, were significant parameters for optimizing RF goodness‐of‐fit. We also explored how model parameter decisions influenced interpretation of the relative importance of predictors to the model, and model predictor‐dependent variable relationships, with results suggesting that both data structure and model parameterization influence these factors. Because much of the current RF literature is written for the computational and statistical science communities, the primary goal of this study is to provide guidelines for aquatic scientists new to machine learning to apply RF techniques appropriately to aquatic biogeochemical datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Diurnal cycle of precipitation over the tropics and central United States: intercomparison of general circulation models

Diurnal precipitation is a fundamental mode of variability that climate models have difficulty in accurately simulating. Here, in this work, the diurnal cycle of precipitation (DCP) in participating climate models from the Global Energy and Water Exchanges' DCP project is evaluated over the tropics and central United States. Common model biases such as excessive precipitation over the tropics, too frequent light-to-moderate rain, and the failure to capture propagating convection in the central United States still exist. Over the central United States, the issues of too weak rainfall intensity in climate runs is well improved in their hindcast runs with initial conditions from numerical weather prediction analyses. But the improvement is minimal over the central Amazon. Incorporating the role of the large-scale environment in convective triggering processes helps resolve the phase-locking issue in many models where precipitation often incorrectly peaks near noon due to maximum insolation over land. Allowing air parcels to be lifted above the boundary layer improves the simulation of nocturnal precipitation which is often associated with the propagation of mesoscale systems. Including convective memory in cumulus parameterizations acts to suppress light-to-moderate rain and promote intense rainfall; however, it also weakens the diurnal variability. Simply increasing model resolution (with cumulus parameterizations still used) cannot fully resolve the biases of low-resolution climate models in DCP. The hierarchy modeling framework from this study is useful for identifying the missing physics in models and testing new development of model convective processes over different convective regimes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

SHAPER: can you hear the shape of a jet?

The identification of interesting substructures within jets is an important tool for searching for new physics and probing the Standard Model at colliders. Many of these substructure tools have previously been shown to take the form of optimal transport problems, in particular the Energy Mover’s Distance (EMD). In this work, we show that the EMD is in fact the natural structure for comparing collider events, which accounts for its recent success in understanding event and jet substructure. We then present a Shape Hunting Algorithm using Parameterized Energy Reconstruction (SHAPER), which is a general framework for defining and computing shape-based observables. SHAPER generalizes N-jettiness from point clusters to any extended, parametrizable shape. This is accomplished by efficiently minimizing the EMD between events and parameterized manifolds of energy flows representing idealized shapes, implemented using the dual-potential Sinkhorn approximation of the Wasserstein metric. We show how the geometric language of observables as manifolds can be used to define novel observables with built-in infrared-and-collinear safety. We demonstrate the efficacy of the SHAPER framework by performing empirical jet substructure studies using several examples of new shape-based observables.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Conformal symmetries for extremal black holes with general asymptotic scalars in STU supergravity

We present a construction of the most general BPS black holes of STU supergravity (N = 2 supersymmetric D = 4 supergravity coupled to three vector super-multiplets) with arbitrary asymptotic values of the scalar fields. These solutions are obtained by acting with a subset of the global symmetry generators on STU BPS black holes with zero values of the asymptotic scalars, both in the U-duality and the heterotic frame. The solutions are parameterized by fourteen parameters: four electric and four magnetic charges, and the asymptotic values of the six scalar fields. We also present BPS black hole solutions of a consistently truncated STU supergravity, which are parameterized by two electric and two magnetic charges and two scalar fields. These latter solutions are significantly simplified, and are very suitable for further explicit studies. We also explore a conformal inversion symmetry of the Couch-Torrence type, which maps any member of the fourteen-parameter family of BPS black holes to another member of the family. Furthermore, these solutions are expected to be valuable in the studies of various swampland conjectures in the moduli space of string compactifications.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Arctic boundary layer cloud streets at grey-zone resolutions

To better understand how model resolution affects the formation of Arctic boundary layer clouds, we investigated the influence of grid spacing on simulating cloud streets that occurred near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska on 2 May 2013 and were observed by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to simulate the clouds using nested domains with increasingly fine resolution ranging from a horizontal grid spacing of 27 km in the boundary-layer-parameterized mesoscale domain to a grid spacing of 0.111 km in the large-eddy-permitting domain. We investigated the model-simulated mesoscale environment, horizontal and vertical cloud structures, boundary layer stability, and cloud properties, all of which were subsequently used to interpret the observed roll-cloud case. Increasing model resolution led to a transition from a more buoyant boundary layer to a more shear-driven turbulent boundary layer. The clouds were stratiform-like in the mesoscale domain, but as the model resolution increased, roll-like structures, aligned along the wind field, appeared with ever smaller wavelengths. A stronger vertical water vapor gradient occurred above the cloud layers with decreasing grid spacing. With fixed model grid spacing at 0.333 km, changing the model configuration from a boundary layer parameterization to a large-eddy-permitting scheme produced a more shear-driven and less unstable environment, a stronger vertical water vapor gradient below the cloud layers, and the wavelengths of the rolls decreased slightly. In this study, only the large-eddy-permitting simulation with gird spacing of 0.111 km was sufficient to model the observed roll clouds.

Lai, Hui-Wen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Region and cloud regime dependence of parametric sensitivity in E3SM atmosphere model

Abstract The Department of Energy (DOE)’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), including its atmosphere model (EAM), has many relatively new features. In a previous study we conducted a systematic parametric sensitivity analysis for EAM based on short, perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) simulations, mainly focusing on global mean climate features and metrics. While parameter values in global climate models are generally invariant in space and time, model response to parameters perturbation may vary by regions and climate regimes, which motivates the need to better understand the EAM model behaviors and physics at regional scale and process level. In this study, using the same set of PPE simulations and a similar sensitivity analysis framework, we identify parameters that cause largest sensitivities over different regions and compare model responses in fast atmospheric processes to the parameters across different cloud regimes for several important cloud-related fidelity metrics. We find that cloud forcing has opposite response to some parameters over mid-latitude vs. tropical land. We also analyze how the parametric sensitivity varies as stratocumulus transitions to shallow convection and to deep convection over ocean. Low cloud forcing and shortwave cloud forcing in the subtropical eastern Pacific are most sensitive to the parameters controlling the width of the probability density function (PDF) of the subgrid vertical velocity ( w’ ) ( gamma ) and the damping of the w’ skewness ( c8 ) near the coast but become more sensitive to the parameter affecting the damping of the w’ variance ( c1 ) further offshore. Detailed interpretation of the spatial dependence of parametric sensitivity is provided. We also investigate how the parametric sensitivity evolves with prediction duration. This study improves our process-level understanding of cloud physics and parameterization and provides insights for developing more advanced regime-aware parameterization schemes in global climate model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural Network-Based Variational Methods for Solving Quadratic Porous Medium Equations in High Dimensions

Here, in this paper, we propose and study neural network-based methods for solutions of high-dimensional quadratic porous medium equation (QPME). Three variational formulations of this nonlinear PDE are presented: a strong formulation and two weak formulations. For the strong formulation, the solution is directly parameterized with a neural network and optimized by minimizing the PDE residual. It can be proved that the convergence of the optimization problem guarantees the convergence of the approximate solution in the $L^1$ sense. The weak formulations are derived following (Brenier in Examples of hidden convexity in nonlinear PDEs, 2020) which characterizes the very weak solutions of QPME. Specifically speaking, the solutions are represented with intermediate functions who are parameterized with neural networks and are trained to optimize the weak formulations. Extensive numerical tests are further carried out to investigate the pros and cons of each formulation in low and high dimensions. This is an initial exploration made along the line of solving high-dimensional nonlinear PDEs with neural network-based methods, which we hope can provide some useful experience for future investigations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing quantitative models of soil microbiology, ecology, and biochemistry

Rapid advances in soil biology are increasingly reflected in mathematical models. From molecular to global scales, models contribute to fundamental understanding and prediction of critical soil processes, such as carbon sequestration. Recent models explicitly incorporate microbial control over soil carbon and nutrient cycling, an approach that offers greater biological realism but raises new challenges in model parameterization and stability. Although they have proliferated at community and ecosystem scales, microbial-explicit models have yet to be incorporated into most Earth system models. Applying soil models across scales requires integration with data to support parameterization and validation using approaches such as Bayesian data assimilation. In conclusion, to catalyze future progress, we recommend breaking down barriers between modeling and empirical disciplines while broadening access to the computational infrastructure that supports soil biological modeling.

Xie, Wally↗