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NASA NTRS2022

SO2 Plumes Observation with LMOL: Theory, Modeling, and Validation

LMOL, the NASA Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar, is locatednear NASA’s LaRC steam plant when not deployed in campaigns. Theplant produces steam through the incineration of local trash, and itsexhaust plume occasionally contains SO2.SO2is a known, regulated, pollutant that affects O3observations in theUV, as is the case with LMOL. In this work, we show how we modifiedLMOL to detect the plant SO2plumes and compute its density when theO3background is stable; we observed densities compatible with what isexpected from the typical plume exhaust. The selection of laser lines sothat an O3variation would not get confused with a SO2detection isexplained in details, and a model capable of simulating the Lidar signalwith (notably) O3and SO2absorption for the validation of the retrievalresolution and uncertainty is presented. Finally, the comparison betweenthe modeled and observed performances of the system is shown: themaximum altitude, resolution, and error in the modeled signal and theobserved signals are the same within reasonable margins.This work demonstrates that LMOL is fully capable of working withSO2. The next step being the addition of an additional laser channel,which is simplified by the tunable aspect of the LMOL laser, to addressO3and SO2simultaneously, allowing the assessment of SO2when O3has variations.

Guillaume Gronoff↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dense Feature Tracking of Atmospheric Winds with Deep Optical Flow

Atmospheric winds are a key physical phenomenon impacting natural hazards, energy transport, ocean currents, large-scale circulation, and ecosystem fluxes. Observing winds is a complex process and presents a large gap in NASA’s Earth Observation System. Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) aim to fill this gap by making numerical estimates of cloud movement between sequences of multi-spectral satellite images, tracking clouds and water vapor. Recent imaging hardware and software advancements have enabled the use of numerical optical flow techniques to produce accurate and dense vector fields outperforming traditional methods. This work presents WindFlow as the first machine learning based system for feature tracking atmospheric motion using optical flow. Due to the lack of large-scale satellite-based observations, we leverage high-resolution numerical simulations from NASA's GEOS-5 Nature Run to perform supervised learning and transfer to satellite images. We demonstrate that our approach using deep learning based optical flow scales to ultra-high-resolution images of size 2881x5760 with less than 1 m/s bias and 2.5 m/s average error. Four network and learning architectures are compared and it is found that recurrent all-pairs field transforms (RAFT) produces the lowest errors on all metrics for wind speed and direction. Results on held out numerical outputs shows RAFT's good performance in each of the spatial, temporal, and physical dimensions. A comparison between WindFlow and an operational AMV product against rawinsonde observations show that RAFT transfers across simulations and thermal infrared satellite observations. This work shows that machine learning based optical flow is an efficient approach to generating robust feature tracking for AMVs consistently over large regions.

Atmospheric winds↗
NASA NTRS2022

Dynamical Perturbation of the Stratosphere by a Pyrocumulonimbus Injection of Carbonaceous Aerosols

The Pacific Northwest pyrocumulonimbus Event (PNE) took place in British Columbia during the evening and night-time hours between the 12th and 13th of August 2017. Several pyroconvective clouds erupted in this occasion, and released in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere unprecedented amounts of carbonaceous aerosols (300 ktn). Only a few years later, an even larger pyroCb injection took place over Australia. This event, named the Australian New Year (ANY) event, injected up to 1100 ktn of aerosol between December 29th 2019 and January 4th 2020. Such large injections of carbonaceous aerosol modify the stratospheric radiative budgets, locally perturbing stratospheric temperatures and winds. In this study, we use the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model (GEOS CCM) to study the pertubations on the stratospheric meteorology induced by an aerosol injection of the magnitude of the PNE. Our simulations include the radiative interactions of aerosols, so that their impact on temperatures and winds are explicitly simulated. We show how the presence of the carbonaceous aerosols from the pyroCb causes the formation and maintenance of a synoptic scale stratospheric anticyclone. We follow this disturbance considering the potential vorticity anomaly and the brown carbon aerosol loading and we describe its dynamical and thermodynamical structure and its evolution in time. The analysis presented here shows that the simulated anticyclone undergoes daily expansion-compression cycles governed by the radiative heating, which are directly related to the vertical motion of the plume, and that the aerosol radiative heating is essential in maintaining the anticyclone itself.

Pyrocumulonimbus↗
NASA NTRS2024

Synergistic Retrievals of Ice in High Clouds From Elastic Backscatter Lidar, Ku-band Radar and Submillimeter Wave Radiometer Observations

In this study, we investigate the synergy of elastic backscatter lidar, Ku-band radar, and sub-millimeter-wave radiometer measurements in the retrieval of ice from satellite observations. The synergy is analyzed through the generation of a large dataset of IceWater Content (IWC) profiles and simulated lidar, radar and radiometer observations. The characteristics of the instruments e.g. frequencies, sensitivities, etc. are set based on the expected characteristics of instruments of the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS) mission. A hold-out validation methodology is used to assess the accuracy of the IWC profiles retrieved from various combinations of observations from the three instruments. Specifically, the IWC and associated observations are randomly divided into two datasets, one for training and the other for evaluation. The training dataset is used to train the retrieval algorithm, while the evaluation dataset is used to assess the retrieval performance. The dataset of IWC profiles is derived from CloudSat reflectivity and CALIOP lidar observations. The retrieval of the ice water content IWC profiles from the computed observations is achieved in two steps. In the first step, a class, out of 18 potential classes characterized by different vertical distribution of IWC, is estimated from the observations. The 18 classes are predetermined based on the k-Means clustering algorithm. In the second step, the IWC profile is estimated using an Ensemble Kalman Smoother (EKS) algorithm that uses the estimated class as a priori information. The results of the study show that the synergy of lidar, radar, and radiometer observations is significant in the retrieval of the IWC profiles. Nevertheless, it should be mentioned that this synergy was found under idealized conditions, and additional work might be required to materialize it in practice. The inclusion of the lidar backscatter observations in the retrieval process has a larger impact on the retrieval performance than the inclusion of the radar observations. As ice clouds have a significant impact on atmospheric radiative processes, this work is relevant to ongoing efforts to reduce uncertainties in climate analyses and projections.

Mircea Grecu↗
NASA NTRS1993

A study of electron transfer using a three-level system coupled to an ohmic bath

Electron transfer is studied using a multi-level system coupled to a bosonic bath. Two body correlation functions are obtained using both exact enumeration of spin paths and Monte Carlo simulation. It was found that the phase boundary for the coherent-incoherent transition lies at a smaller friction in the asymmetric two-level model than in the symmetric two-level model. A similar coherent-incoherent transition is observed for three-level system.

Takasu, Masako↗
NASA NTRS2003

Evidence for Tropopause Layer Moistening by Convection During CRYSTAL-FACE

Measurements and analysis of the impact of deep convection on tropopause layer moisture are easily confounded by difficulties making precise observations with sufficient spatial coverage before and after convective events and difficulties distinguishing between changes due to local convection versus large-scale advection. The interactions between cloud microphysics and dynamics in the convective transport of moisture into the tropopause layer also result in a sufficiently complex and poorly characterized system to allow for considerable freedom in theoretical models of stratosphere-troposphere exchange. In this work we perform detailed large-eddy simulations with an explicit cloud microphysics model to study the impact of deep convection on tropopause layer moisture profiles observed over southern Florida during CRYSTALFACE. For four days during the campaign (July 11, 16, 28, and 29) we initialize a 100-km square domain with temperature and moisture profiles measured prior to convection at the PARSL ground site, and initiate convection with a warm bubble that produces an anvil at peak elevations in agreement with lidar and radar observations on that day. Comparing the moisture field after the anvils decay with the initial state, we find that convection predominantly moistens the tropopause layer (as defined by minimum temperature and minimum potential temperature lapse rate), although some drying is also predicted in localized layers. We will also present results of sensitivity tests designed to separate the roles of cloud microphysics and dynamics.

Ackerman, A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Benefits of Sample Return: Connecting Apollo Soils and Diviner Lunar Radiometer Remote Sensing Data

The Diviner Lunar Radiometer, onboard NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, has produced the first global, high resolution, thermal infrared observations of an airless body. The Moon, which is the most accessible member of this most abundant class of solar system objects, is also the only body for which we have extraterrestrial samples with known spatial context. Here we present the results of a comprehensive study to reproduce an accurate simulated lunar environment, evaluate the most appropriate sample and measurement conditions, collect thermal infrared spectra of a representative suite of Apollo soils, and correlate them with Diviner observations of the lunar surface. We find that analyses of Diviner observations of individual sampling stations and SLE measurements of returned Apollo soils show good agreement, while comparisons to thermal infrared reflectance under terrestrial conditions do not agree well, which underscores the need for SLE measurements and validates the Diviner compositional dataset. Future work includes measurement of additional soils in SLE and cross comparisons with measurements in JPL Simulated Airless Body Emission Laboratory (SABEL).

Greenhagen, B. T.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The SMAP Level-4 ECO Project: Improving Terrestrial Flux Estimates Through Coupled Hydrology-Vegetation Data Assimilation

Simulations of hydrologic and vegetation states as well as water, energy and carbon fluxes from the land surface to the atmosphere are crucial for a wide range of applications, including agricultural advisories, forecasts of (short-term) atmospheric behavior and seasonal weather predictions including forecasts of extreme events, such as heatwaves or droughts. The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission Level-4 Eco-Hydrology (L4-ECO) project aims to improve modeled estimates of the terrestrial water, energy and carbon fluxes and states by developing a fully-coupled hydrology-vegetation data assimilation system. This system is developed around the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Catchment-CN land surface model, which combines land hydrology and energy balance components of the GEOS Catchment model with dynamic vegetation components of the Community Land Model version 4. Catchment-CN fully couples the terrestrial water, energy and carbon cycles, allowing feedbacks from the land hydrology to the biosphere and vice versa.Here, we implement a calibration of the Catchment-CN vegetation parameterization against observations of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to improve the model's standalone skill. Later, the DA algorithm used to produce the SMAP L4 soil moisture product will be adapted to Catchment-CN to assimilate SMAP brightness temperatures and inform the model's land hydrology component. Finally, the DA system will be further extended to assimilate MODIS FPAR observations in order to constrain the model's dynamic vegetation component.In this presentation, we demonstrate that the Catchment-CN parameter calibration leads to more realistic vegetation simulations and reduces the root mean squared error between modeled and observed vegetation states across the model's various plant functional types. We also show that the assimilation of SMAP observations is able to improve the average correlation, bias and unbiased RMSE between the modeled surface and root zone soil moisture estimates, and ground observations from the SMAP core validation sites.

Kolassa, Jana↗
NASA NTRS1987

Fault diagnosis based on continuous simulation models

The results are described of an investigation of techniques for using continuous simulation models as basis for reasoning about physical systems, with emphasis on the diagnosis of system faults. It is assumed that a continuous simulation model of the properly operating system is available. Malfunctions are diagnosed by posing the question: how can we make the model behave like that. The adjustments that must be made to the model to produce the observed behavior usually provide definitive clues to the nature of the malfunction. A novel application of Dijkstra's weakest precondition predicate transformer is used to derive the preconditions for producing the required model behavior. To minimize the size of the search space, an envisionment generator based on interval mathematics was developed. In addition to its intended application, the ability to generate qualitative state spaces automatically from quantitative simulations proved to be a fruitful avenue of investigation in its own right. Implementations of the Dijkstra transform and the envisionment generator are reproduced in the Appendix.

Feyock, Stefan↗
NASA NTRS2014

Can Eccentric Debris Disks Be Long-lived? A First Numerical Investigation and Application to Zeta(exp 2) Reticuli

Context. Imaging of debris disks has found evidence for both eccentric and offset disks. One hypothesis is that they provide evidence for massive perturbers, for example, planets or binary companions, which sculpt the observed structures. One such disk was recently observed in the far-IR by the Herschel Space Observatory around Zeta2 Reticuli. In contrast with previously reported systems, the disk is significantly eccentric, and the system is several Gyr old. Aims. We aim to investigate the long-term evolution of eccentric structures in debris disks caused by a perturber on an eccentric orbit around the star. We hypothesise that the observed eccentric disk around Zeta2 Reticuli might be evidence of such a scenario. If so, we are able to constrain the mass and orbit of a potential perturber, either a giant planet or a binary companion. Methods. Analytical techniques were used to predict the effects of a perturber on a debris disk. Numerical N-body simulations were used to verify these results and further investigate the observable structures that may be produced by eccentric perturbers. The long-term evolution of the disk geometry was examined, with particular application to the Zeta2 Reticuli system. In addition, synthetic images of the disk were produced for direct comparison with Herschel observations. Results. We show that an eccentric companion can produce both the observed offsets and eccentric disks. These effects are not immediate, and we characterise the timescale required for the disk to develop to an eccentric state (and any spirals to vanish). For Zeta2 Reticuli, we derive limits on the mass and orbit of the companion required to produce the observations. Synthetic images show that the pattern observed around Zeta2 Reticuli can be produced by an eccentric disk seen close to edge-on, and allow us to bring additional constraints on the disk parameters of our model (disk flux and extent). Conclusions. We conclude that eccentric planets or stellar companions can induce long-lived eccentric structures in debris disks. Observations of such eccentric structures thus provide potential evidence of the presence of such a companion in a planetary system. We considered the specific example of Zeta2 Reticuli, whose observed eccentric disk can be explained by a distant companion (at tens of AU) on an eccentric orbit (ep greater than approx. 0.3).

planetary systems↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aeroservoelastic Control Law Development for the Integrated Adaptive Wing Technology Maturation Wind-Tunnel Test

The NASA Advanced Air Transport Technology (AATT) Project seeks to “explore and develop technologies and concepts for improved energy efficiency and environmental compatibility for fixed wing subsonic transports” [1]. The IAWTM project is a subproject within AATT and is a joint Boeing/NASA effort to, in part, demonstrate the active control systems necessary to employ high-aspect ratio wings for improved aerodynamic efficiency. The aircraft configuration under study for the IAWTM project is a generic jet transport based on the NASA Common Research Model (CRM) whose wing aspect ratio has been increased to 13.5 (as opposed to nominal CRM aspect ratio of 9) and whose development is given in Ref. [2]. A semi-span model of the high-aspect-ratio CRM with 10 trailing edge control surfaces is currently being fabricated and will be delivered to the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT). There, several tests will be conducted to demonstrate maneuver load alleviation (MLA), gust load alleviation (GLA), active flutter suppression (AFS), and drag reduction, all at transonic conditions. A layout of the wind tunnel model is shown in Fig. 1. The wind-tunnel model is a spar/pod wing design with a relatively rigid fuselage attached to a mounting structure (seen in Fig. 1), which in turn is attached to a load balance behind the tunnel wall. Shims exist that can be attached to force the load to go through the fuselage rather than through the balance so as not to damage the balance in the event of flutter. The spar/pod design is similar to that used in the Boeing truss-braced wing aeroelastic model tested in the TDT in 2013 [3]. There is a central spar running the span of the wing to which the pods are attached that form the aerodynamic shape of the wing. The pods are constructed of ribs for attachment to the spar and skins to create the outer mold line. There are ten active control surfaces that will be used for the test objectives discussed above. Three of these (two outboard ailerons and one inboard aileron) are high-speed electrohydraulic actuators, and the remaining seven are low-speed mini-plane flaps, which have slower servo motors that will be used primarily for drag and maneuver load reductions. Control laws must be developed for each test (MLA, GLA, AFS, and drag reduction) and must be able to work in tandem when two or more control strategies are being tested simultaneously (e.g., when control laws to mitigate maneuver loads and gust loads operate simultaneously). The development of these control laws requires accurate mathematical representations of the aerodynamics, structural dynamics, and control surface dynamics of the system. Taken together, this mathematical representation—which is often in state-space form— is the ASE model. Three low-order ASE models of differing fidelities were developed for the IAWTM test and will be presented here. The differences in fidelity appeared in the aerodynamic modeling—one model assumed purely linear aerodynamics, while the other two models used different techniques to linearize the aerodynamics about a nonlinear mean. Furthermore, simple observer-based full-state feedback controllers for each test (MLA, GLA, AFS, and drag reduction) were designed from these low-order ASE models and implemented in a higher-order, nonlinear computational ASE simulation to assess the effectiveness of each controller. Observers were designed from each of the three lower-order ASE models, and each (linear) observer was then used as an estimate of the nonlinear dynamics of the system. Using the estimated states and the full-state feedback controller, control surface commands were fed back to the higher-order, nonlinear ASE system. The insight gained during this development will be applied to control law development for the physical IAWTM wind-tunnel test.

Josiah M Waite↗
NASA NTRS2007

Role for Lower Extremity Interstitial Fluid Volume Changes in the Development of Orthostasis after Simulated Microgravity

Reentry orthostasis after exposure to the conditions of spaceflight is a persistent problem among astronauts. In a previous study, a computer model systems analysis was used to examine the physiologic mechanisms involved in this phenomenon. In this analysis, it was determined that an augmented capacitance of lower extremity veins due to a fluid volume contracture of the surrounding interstitial spaces during spaceflight results in an increase in sequestered blood volume upon standing and appears to be the initiating mechanism responsible for reentry orthostasis. In this study, we attempt to validate the central premise of this hypothesis using a ground-based spaceflight analog. 10 healthy subjects were placed at bed rest in a 6 head down tilt position for 60 days of bed rest. The impact of adaptations in interstitial fluid volume and venous capacitance in the lower extremities were then observed during a standard tilt test protocol performed before and after the confinement period. The interstitial thickness superficial to the calcaneous immediately below the lateral malleolus was measured using ultrasound with a 17-5 MHz linear array transducer. Measurements of the changes in anterior tibial vein diameter during tilt were obtained by similar methods. The measurements were taken while the subjects were supine and then during upright tilt (80') for thirty minutes, or until the subject had signs of presyncope. Additional measurements of the superficial left tibia interstitial thickness and stroke volume by standard echocardiographic methods were also recorded. In addition, calf compliance was measured over a pressure range of 10-60 mmHg, using plethysmography, in a subset of these subjects (n = 5). There was a average of 6% diminution in the size of the lower extremity interstitial space as compared to measurements acquired prior to bed rest. This contracture of the interstitial space coincided with a subsequent relative increase in the percentage change in tibial vein diameter and stroke volume upon tilting in contrast to the observations made before bed rest (54 vs 23% respectively). Compliance in the calf increased by an average of 36% by day 27 of bedrest. A systems analysis using a computer model of cardiovascular physiology suggests that microgravity induced interstitial volume depletion results in an accentuation of venous blood volume sequestration and is the initiating event in reentry orthostasis. This hypothesis was tested in volunteer subjects using a ground-based spaceflight analog model that simulated the body fluid redistribution induced by microgravity exposure. Measurements of changes in the interstitial spaces and observed responses of the anterior tibial vein with tilt, together with the increase in calf compliance, were consistent with our proposed mechanism for the initiation of postflight orthostasis often seen in astronauts.

Platts, Steven H.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Stochastic analysis of multiple-passband spectral classifications systems affected by observation errors

The classification of targets viewed by a pushbroom type multiple band spectral scanner by algorithms suitable for implementation in high speed online digital circuits is considered. A class of algorithms suitable for use with a pipelined classifier is investigated through simulations based on observed data from agricultural targets. It is shown that time distribution of target types is an important determining factor in classification efficiency.

Tsokos, C. P.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Mapping Isoprene Emissions over North America using Formaldehyde Column Observations from Space

I] We present a methodology for deriving emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) using space-based column observations of formaldehyde (HCHO) and apply it to data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) satellite instrument over North America during July 1996. The HCHO column is related to local VOC emissions, with a spatial smearing that increases with the VOC lifetime. lsoprene is the dominant HCHO precursor over North America in summer, and its lifetime (approx. = 1 hour) is sufficiently short that the smearing can be neglected. We use the Goddard Earth Observing System global 3-D model of tropospheric chemistry (GEOS-CHEM) to derive the relationship between isoprene emissions and HCHO columns over North America and use these relationships to convert the GOME HCHO columns to isoprene emissions. We also use the GEOS-CHEM model as an intermediary to validate the GOME HCHO column measurements by comparison with in situ observations. The GEOS-CHEM model including the Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA) isoprene emission inventory provides a good simulation of both the GOME data (r(sup 2) = 0.69, n = 756, bias = +l1 %) and the in situ summertime HCHO measurements over North America (r(sup 2) = 0.47, n = 10, bias = -3%). The GOME observations show high values over regions of known high isoprene emissions and a day-to-day variability that is consistent with the temperature dependence of isoprene emission. Isoprene emissions inferred from the GOME data are 20% less than GEIA on average over North America and twice those from the U S . EPA Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS2) inventory. The GOME isoprene inventory when implemented in the GEOS-CHEM model provides a better simulation of the HCHO in situ measurements thaneitherGEIAorBEIS2 (r(sup 2) = 0.71,n= 10, bias = -10 %).

Palmer, Paul I.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Satellite Perspective of Aerosol Intercontinental Transport: From Qualitative Tracking to Quantitative Characterization

Evidence of aerosol intercontinental transport (ICT) is both widespread and compelling. Model simulations suggest that ICT could significantly affect regional air quality and climate, but the broad inter-model spread of results underscores a need of constraining model simulations with measurements. Satellites have inherent advantages over in situ measurements to characterize aerosol ICT, because of their spatial and temporal coverage. Significant progress in satellite remote sensing of aerosol properties during the Earth Observing System (EOS) era offers opportunity to increase quantitative characterization and estimates of aerosol ICT, beyond the capability of pre-EOS era satellites that could only qualitatively track aerosol plumes. EOS satellites also observe emission strengths and injection heights of some aerosols, aerosol precursors, and aerosol-related gases, which can help characterize aerosol ICT. After an overview of these advances, we review how the current generation of satellite measurements have been used to (1) characterize the evolution of aerosol plumes (e.g., both horizontal and vertical transport, and properties) on an episodic basis, (2) understand the seasonal and inter-annual variations of aerosol ICT and their control factors, (3) estimate the export and import fluxes of aerosols, and (4) evaluate and constrain model simulations. Substantial effort is needed to further explore an integrated approach using measurements from on-orbit satellites (e.g., A-Train synergy) for observational characterization and model constraint of aerosol intercontinental transport and to develop advanced sensors for future missions.

Yu, Hongbin↗
NASA NTRS2001

Simulation of Combustion Systems with Realistic g-Jitter

A number of facilities are available for microgravity combustion experiments: aircraft, drop towers, sounding rockets, the space shuttle, and, in the future, the International Space Station (ISS). Acceleration disturbances or g-jitter about the background level of reduced gravity exist in all these microgravity facilities. While g-jitter is routinely measured, a quantitative comparison of the quality of g-jitter among the different microgravity facilities, in terms of its affects on combustion experiments, has not been compiled. Low frequency g-jitter (< 1 Hz) has been repeatedly observed to disturb a number of combustion systems. Guidelines regarding tolerable levels of acceleration disturbances for combustion experiments have been developed for use in the design of ISS experiments. The validity of these guidelines, however, remains unknown. In this project a transient, 3-D numerical model is under development to simulate the effects of realistic g-jitter on a number of combustion systems. The measured acceleration vector or some representation of it can be used as input to the simulation.

Mell, W. E.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Real-Time Assimilation of Goes-Derived Products into A Mesoscale Model and It's Impact on Short-Term (06-36hr) Forecasts from 17 October 1998 through the Present

As the parameterizations of surface energy budgets in regional models have become more complete physically, models have the potential to be much more realistic in simulations of coupling between surface radiation, hydrology, and surface energy transfer. Realizing the importance of properly specifying the surface energy budget, many institutions are using land-surface models to represent the lower boundary forcing associated with biophysical processes and soil hydrology. However, the added degrees of freedom due to inclusion of such land-surface schemes require the specification of additional parameters within the model system such as vegetative resistances, green vegetation fraction, leaf area index, soil physical and hydraulic characteristics, stream flow, runoff, and the vertical distribution of soil moisture. Spatial heterogeneity of these parameters makes correct specification problematic since measurements are not routinely available. A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-IR skin temperature tendencies, solar insolation, and surface albedo into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. The technique has been successfully employed in a number of mesoscale models in case-study mode. We have taken the next step and developed a study to determine if assimilating these types of data into mesoscale models in real-time can improve short-term (648h) forecasts of temperature, relative humidity, and QPF on a daily basis over relatively large regions. Therefore, an operational modeling/assimilation system has been developed at the GHCC during the past summer that allows us to produce simulations out to 48 hours in a timely manor. The PSU/NCAR MM5 is used in a nested configuration with a 25 km grid covering the southeastern third of the US. The model has been on-line since 1 July 1998 and forecast products are posted on our web site. The satellite algorithms that generate data to be assimilated came on-line 17 October 1998. Quantitative assessment of the forecast quality is performed via traditional verification statistics. In addition, invaluable qualitative information is obtained through close collaboration with several NWSFO's who are using the MM5 products in real-time on a daily basis. The assimilation technique has been applied in an off-line mode since 17 October. Results based on bulk statistical verification of surface meteorology over the entire Southeastern US show that assimilating the GOES-derived land surface tendencies and solar radiation results in a significant reduction of the shelter air temperature and RH bias on a daily basis. In fact, the assimilation technique has produced improved temperature and RH forecasts for 97% of the 100 simulations performed to date. Work is currently underway to determine the sensitivity of the assimilation procedure to the availability of satellite data, length of assimilation period, model initialization, and synoptic-scale meteorological conditions. In addition, results from a detailed energy budget analysis using the Early Eta, our operational MM5, and the assimilation runs will help us to better understand the satellite assimilation the land-surface energy budge. Research during the spring-summer of 1999 will focus on the impact of the assimilation technique during the warm season where it is hypothesized that it can have a positive impact on QPF during conditions of weak synoptic-scale forcing.

Lapenta, William M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

QBO Influence on Polar Stratospheric Variability in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

The quasi-biennial oscillation modulates the strength of both the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric vortices. Model and observational studies have found that the phase and characteristics of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) contribute to the high degree of variability in the Arctic stratosphere in winter. While the Antarctic stratosphere is less variable, recent work has shown that Southern Hemisphere planetary wave driving increases in response to "warm pool" El Nino events that are coincident with the easterly phase of the QBO. These events hasten the breakup of the Antarctic polar vortex. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is now capable of generating a realistic QBO, due a new parameterization of gravity wave drag. In this presentation, we will use this new model capability to assess the influence of the QBO on polar stratospheric variability. Using simulations of the recent past, we will compare the modeled relationship between QBO phase and mid-winter vortex strength with the observed Holton-Tan relation, in both hemispheres. We will use simulations of the 21 St century to estimate future trends in the relationship between QBO phase and vortex strength. In addition, we will evaluate the combined influence of the QBO and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the timing of the breakup of the polar stratospheric vortices in the GEOS CCM. We will compare the influence of these two natural phenomena with trends in the vortex breakup associated with ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗