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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2014

WIYN open cluster study. LXII. Comparison of isochrone systems using deep multi-band photometry of M35

The current generation of stellar isochrone models exhibits non-negligible discrepancies due to variations in the input physics. The success of each model is determined by how well it fits the observations, and this paper aims to disentangle contributions from the various physical inputs. New deep, wide-field optical and near-infrared photometry (UBVRIJHK{sub S} ) of the cluster M35 is presented, against which several isochrone systems are compared: Padova, PARSEC, Dartmouth, and Y {sup 2}. Two different atmosphere models are applied to each isochrone: ATLAS9 and BT-Settl. For any isochrone set and atmosphere model, observed data are accurately reproduced for all stars more massive than 0.7 M {sub ☉}. For stars less massive than 0.7 M {sub ☉}, Padova and PARSEC isochrones consistently produce higher temperatures than observed. Dartmouth and Y{sup 2} isochrones with BT-Settl atmospheres reproduce optical data accurately; however, they appear too blue in IR colors. It is speculated that molecular contributions to stellar spectra in the near-infrared may not be fully explored, and that future study may reconcile these differences.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Development, refinement, and testing of a short term solar flare prediction algorithm

During the period included in this report, the expenditure of time and effort, and progress toward performance of the tasks and accomplishing the goals set forth in the two year research grant proposal, consisted primarily of calibration and analysis of selected data sets. The heliographic limits of 30 degrees from central meridian were continued. As previously reported, all analyses are interactive and are performed by the Principal Investigator. It should also be noted that the analysis time involved by the Principal Investigator during this reporting period was limited, partially due to illness and partially resulting from other uncontrollable factors. The calibration technique (as developed by MSFC solar scientists), incorporates sets of constants which vary according to the wave length of the observation data set. One input constant is then varied interactively to correct for observing conditions, etc., to result in a maximum magnetic field strength (in the calibrated data), based on a separate analysis. There is some insecurity in the methodology and the selection of variables to yield the most self-consistent results for variable maximum field strengths and for variable observing/atmospheric conditions. Several data sets were analyzed using differing constant sets, and separate analyses to differing maximum field strength - toward standardizing methodology and technique for the most self-consistent results for the large number of cases. It may be necessary to recalibrate some of the analyses, but the sc analyses are retained on the optical disks and can still be used with recalibration where necessary. Only the extracted parameters will be changed.

Smith, Jesse B., Jr.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Use of three-cornered hat error estimates in MERRA-2 to guide an improved reanalysis-Part 1

The three-cornered hat (3CH) method estimates the uncertainties of three different co-located model or observational data sets (Anthes and Rieckh, 2018; Sjoberg et al., 2021). Rieckh et al. (2021) used the 3CH method to compare the random error statistics of different global forecast and reanalysis models, as well as radio occultation (RO) and radiosonde observations. That study showed that the MERRA-2 reanalysis, while having smaller errors in the stratosphere than its predecessor MERRA, had larger errors in the troposphere than many of the other data sets analyzed. The MERRA-2 errors were particularly large in the tropics. In a collaborative effort between UCAR’s COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Meteorology) program and NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), we carried out further 3CH error diagnostics to help isolate the causes of these larger errors and help guide the development of an improved reanalysis. This presentation summarizes random error statistics associated with MERRA-2, ECMWF’s ERA5 reanalysis, and COSMIC-2 (C2) RO observations. We compute 3CH error variance estimates of refractivity, as well as temperature and specific humidity using UCAR’s COSMIC Data Analysis and Archive Center (CDAAC) improved 1D-variational (1D-Var) retrieval (wetPf2) over 15 latitude bands from 45S to 45N. The 1D-Var retrievals of specific humidity and temperature for C2 use NCEP’s Global Forecast System (GFS) as the background. Anthes et al. (2021) showed that it gives accurate estimates of temperature and specific humidity in the tropics and subtropics, even in the challenging environment of intense Hurricane Dorian (2019). This presentation confirms the previous results that MERRA-2 has significantly larger errors in the tropics and subtropics than either C2 or ERA5. Its errors are larger between 30S and 30N compared to 30-45 N-S latitudes, and are also larger over land compared to oceans. Most of the MERRA-2 refractivity errors come from specific humidity, except over land below 3 km where temperature errors are large. These results suggest that moist convection and atmospheric boundary layer physics in MERRA-2 may be responsible for a significant part of the higher uncertainties. These results are being used to guide GMAO in developing an improved next-generation reanalysis, as shown in a companion presentation submitted to this conference (El Akkraoui et al., 2021), which extends this study and describes improvements to MERRA-2 leading to the next GMAO reanalysis.

Jeremiah Sjoberg↗
DOE OSTI2024

Visibility-enhanced model-free deep reinforcement learning algorithm for voltage control in realistic distribution systems using smart inverters

Increasing integration of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) into distribution networks could result in adverse effects on grid operation. Traditional model-based control algorithms require accurate model information that is difficult to acquire and thus are challenging to implement in practice. Here, this paper proposes a surrogate model-enabled grid visibility scheme to empower deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach for distribution network voltage regulation using PV inverters with minimal system knowledge. In contrast to existing DRL methods, this paper presents and corroborates the adverse impact of missing load information on DRL performance and, based on this finding, proposes a surrogate model methodology to impute load information utilizing observable data. Additionally, a multi-fidelity neural network is utilized to construct the DRL training environment, chosen for its efficient data utilization and enhanced robustness to data uncertainty. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm are assessed by considering DRL testing across varying degrees of observable load information and diverse training environments on a realistic power system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Cosmic reionization on computers. II. Reionization history and its back-reaction on early galaxies

We compare the results from several sets of cosmological simulations of cosmic reionization, produced under the Cosmic Reionization On Computers project, with existing observational data on the high-redshift Lyα forest and the abundance of Lyα emitters. We find good consistency with the observational measurements and previous simulation work. By virtue of having several independent realizations for each set of numerical parameters, we are able to explore the effect of cosmic variance on observable quantities. One unexpected conclusion we are forced into is that cosmic variance is unusually large at z > 6, with both our simulations and, most likely, observational measurements still not fully converged for even such basic quantities as the average Gunn-Peterson optical depth or the volume-weighted neutral fraction. We also find that reionization has little effect on the early galaxies or on global cosmic star formation history, because galaxies whose gas content is affected by photoionization contain no molecular (i.e., star-forming) gas in the first place. In particular, measurements of the faint end of the galaxy luminosity function by the James Webb Space Telescope are unlikely to provide a useful constraint on reionization.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for stealth supersymmetry in final states with two photons, jets, and low missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

The results of a search for stealth supersymmetry in final states with two photons and jets, targeting a phase space region with low missing transverse momentum ( p T miss ), are reported. The study is based on a sample of proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV collected by the CMS experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb - 1 . As LHC results continue to constrain the parameter space of the minimal supersymmetric standard model, the low p T miss regime is increasingly valuable to explore. To estimate the backgrounds due to standard model processes in such events, we apply corrections derived from simulation to an estimate based on a control selection in data. The results are interpreted in the context of simplified stealth supersymmetry models with gluino and squark pair production. The observed data are consistent with the standard model predictions, and gluino (squark) masses of up to 2150 (1850) GeV are excluded at the 95% confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Search for direct pair production of supersymmetric partners to the $\tau$ lepton in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {TeV} $

A search is presented for $\tau$ slepton pairs produced in proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The search is carried out in events containing two $\tau$ leptons in the final state, on the assumption that each $\tau$ slepton decays primarily to a $\tau$ lepton and a neutralino. Events are considered in which each $\tau$ lepton decays to one or more hadrons and a neutrino, or in which one of the $\tau$ leptons decays instead to an electron or a muon and two neutrinos. The data, collected with the CMS detector in 2016 and 2017, correspond to an integrated luminosity of 77.2 fb$^{-1}$. The observed data are consistent with the standard model background expectation. The results are used to set 95% confidence level upper limits on the cross section for $\tau$ slepton pair production in various models for $\tau$ slepton masses between 90 and 200 GeV and neutralino masses of 1, 10, and 20 GeV. In the case of purely left-handed $\tau$ slepton production and decay to a $\tau$ lepton and a neutralino with a mass of 1 GeV, the strongest limit is obtained for a $\tau$ slepton mass of 125 GeV at a factor of 1.14 larger than the theoretical cross section.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Meta-Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Cost Estimations

Supporting Data can be downloaded at: https://gain.inl.gov/content/uploads/4/2024/06/INL-RPT-24-77048-R1.xlsx Nuclear energy is a critical cornerstone of the current United States clean energy supply and may play a larger role in the future in support of a transition to a net-zero economy. The current fleet of nuclear reactors predominantly consists of large light-water reactors (LWRs), while many of the reactor designs under consideration are smaller and/or different technologies. Because these new designs have not yet been built, there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with their cost. This complicates energy-planning efforts because cost projections are not always standardized, consistent, and centralized in an easily accessible location. To help support energy planning in the US, this report provides advanced nuclear cost ranges using a transparent methodology along with other relevant information that can be used to help support decision making and energy planning. The purpose of this work was to conduct a methodical process for cost evaluation using only public information that was vetted with the end-goal to provide reference cost projections for nuclear energy. To provide a solid basis for these values, the approach and assumptions are explicitly laid out throughout the report allowing any user of the data to challenge or reconsider them. Because future US nuclear-reactor costs are still unknown due to little recent observed data, the report opted to compile a comprehensive list of bottom-up estimates and evaluate averages/trends within the data to identify reference ranges. This was deemed preferable to opining on the robustness or validity of one cost estimation versus another. To that end, the work evaluated thousands of lines of cost subaccounts from several bottom-up cost estimates. A wide variety of different reactor types captured in the data are of various sizes and technologies. Some of these reactors will be representative of advanced reactors under development while others will not. Thus, the results here are dependent on the data that are available and the accuracy of the estimates that are used. Each bottom-up estimate was reviewed to determine whether it was complete. Incomplete data sets were corrected to ensure an adequate basis of cross-comparison. The report is not without limitations and should be interpreted as an initial step to develop cost ranges for nuclear technology. Ultimately, future work can build upon the methodology with refined cost estimates to reduce uncertainty. US-based overnight capital cost (OCC) estimates were compiled from extensive data sets into ranges for both large and small reactor sizes for 2030. To project the cost declines over time, learning rates were sampled from literature sources. No SMRs were previously built; hence, learning rates based on bottom-up approaches (e.g., by quantifying the impact stemming from fabrication of different components, modular work, site construction, commissioning) were prioritized. For larger reactors, actual learning rates from deployments were used to project future costs (adjusted to account for standardization or lack thereof between designs). Other costs included are fixed and variable operations and maintenance costs. The final variables were capacity factors and ramp rates to support energy planning.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward

Climate change has emerged across many regions. Some observed regional climate changes, such as amplified Arctic warming and land-sea warming contrasts have been predicted by climate models. However, many other observed regional changes, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature and monsoon rainfall are not well simulated by climate model ensembles even when taking into account natural internal variability and structural uncertainties in the response of models to anthropogenic radiative forcing. This suggests climate model predictions may not fully reflect what our future will look like. The discrepancies between models and observations are not well understood due to several real and apparent puzzles and limitations such as the “signal-to-noise paradox” and real-world record-shattering extremes falling outside of the possible range predicted by models. Addressing these discrepancies, puzzles and limitations is essential, because understanding and reliably predicting regional climate change is necessary in order to communicate effectively about the underlying drivers of change, provide reliable information to stakeholders, enable societies to adapt, and increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. The challenges of achieving this are greater in the Global South, especially because of the lack of observational data over long time periods and a lack of scientific focus on Global South climate change. To address discrepancies between observations and models, it is important to prioritize resources for understanding regional climate predictions and analyzing where and why models and observations disagree via testing hypotheses of drivers of biases using observations and models. Gaps in understanding can be discovered and filled by exploiting new tools, such as artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-resolution models, new modeling experiments in the model hierarchy, better quantification of forcing, and new observations. Conscious efforts are needed toward creating opportunities that allow regional experts, particularly those from the Global South, to take the lead in regional climate research. This includes co-learning in technical aspects of analyzing simulations and in the physics and dynamics of regional climate change. Finally, improved methods of regional climate communication are needed, which account for the underlying uncertainties, in order to provide reliable and actionable information to stakeholders and the media.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Phase-curve Pollution of Exoplanet Transit Depths

The next generation of space telescopes will enable transformative science to understand the nature and origin of exoplanets. In particular, transit spectroscopy will reveal the chemical composition of the exoplanet atmospheres with unprecedented detail thanks to precise measurements of the visible-to-infrared transit depths down to 10 parts per million. Such a level of instrumental precision raises the challenge to obtain even more precise astrophysical models so as not to significantly influence the interpretation of the observed data. We must therefore critically revisit some of the commonly accepted assumptions that were adequate for analyzing past and current observations. A common approximation in the analysis of exoplanetary primary transits is that the planet does not contribute to the recorded flux, so-called dark planet hypothesis. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the dark planet hypothesis on the parameters obtained from the analysis of transits with particular attention to the transit depth. We develop mathematical formulae and release new software to estimate the magnitude of the potential bias. These tools will be useful in the preparation of observing proposals, as well as within the scientific consortia of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the Atmospheric Remote-sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey (ARIEL) missions. We probe the accuracy of the mathematical formulae through the analysis of synthetic observations with the JWST Mid-InfraRed Instrument. We find that self-blending from nightside emission attenuates the transit depth by >3σ for some of the known exoplanet systems, in agreement with previous work. An additional unreported effect caused by the nightside rotating into view can also impart a significant effect, but in the opposite direction (increasing the transit depth); this effect can largely be removed with conventional detrending practices, at the expense of a slight increase in noise, and mixing astrophysical variations and instrumental drifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1985

Ultrahigh energy gamma rays: Carriers of cosmological information

Observational data being the basis of contemporary cosmological models are not numerous: Hubble law of redshift for galaxies, element abundances, and observation of cosmic microwave background radiation (MBR). The significance of MBR discovery predicted in the Big-Band model is particularly stressed. Radio astronomical measurements give an information on MBR only near the Earth. Experimental confirmation of evolution of MBR, i.e., its probing in remote epochs, might obviously present a direct verification of the hypothesis of hot expanding Universe. The carriers of similar cosmological information should be particles which, firstly, effectively interact with MBR, and secondly, make it possible to identify unambiguously the epoch of interaction. A possibility to verify a number of cosmological hypotheses by searching the cutoffs in spectra of ultrahigh energy gamma-rays (UHEGR) from extragalactic sources is discussed.

Aharonian, F. A.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Interiors of the giant planets

This theoretical/observational project constrains interior structure of Jovian planets through observational data. Researchers continue to concentrate on Neptune in support of the 1989 Voyager encounter. Occultations of stars by Neptune are observed from the Tucson area and from Chile to obtain information about Neptune's atmosphere and to continue to search for Neptune arcs. Occultations by other solar system objects are also observed as part of collaborative efforts from time to time. New results on the structure of scintillations in the central flash occultation by Neptune on 20 August 1985 were derived. Analysis shows that scintillations are present throughout the lightcurve, both near the half-intensity points (at a pressure of 1 microbar) and near the central flash (at 0.4 mbar). Near the planetary limb, the scintillations are extended parallel to the limb; near the shadow center, they are extended parallel to the limb; near the shadow center, they are extended in a radial direction. Researchers collaborated with Ramesh Narayan to derive a theory relating the scintillations to density fluctuations in Neptune's atmosphere. The theory will ultimately enable researchers to test whether the scintillations are caused by internal gravity waves in Neptune's upper atmosphere.

Hubbard, W. B.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Comparative dynamics of the ionospheres of Venus and Mars at large solar zenith angles

Simple three-ion spectral models of the dynamics and ion chemistry in the upper ionospheres of Venus and Mars have been constructed by including two minor ions, H(+) and O2(+) for Venus and O(+) and CO2(+) for Mars, along with the major ion, O(+) for Venus and O2(+) for Mars. Horizontal flow velocities and ion densities have been calculated in each case and compared with available measured data. For Venus, the present calculations yield results in agreement with earlier finite-difference model studies and with experimental observations. Calculations for Mars are in agreement with the limited observational data obtained by the Viking landers.

Singhal, R. P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Evaluation of Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Simulated by AOMIP Models

We compare results from six AOMIP model simulations with estimates of sea ice thickness obtained from ICESat, moored and submarine-based upward looking sensors, airborne electromagnetic measurements and drill holes. Our goal is to find patterns of model performance to guide model improvement. The satellite data is pan-arctic from 2004-2008, ice-draft data is from moored instruments in Fram Strait, the Greenland Sea and the Beaufort Sea from 1992-2008 and from submarines from 1975-2000. The drill hole data are from the Laptev and East Siberian marginal seas from 1982-1986 and from coastal stations from 1998-2009. While there are important caveats when comparing modeled results with measurements from different platforms and time periods such as these, the models agree well with moored ULS data. In general, the AOMIP models underestimate the thickness of measured ice thicker than about 2 m and overestimate thickness of ice thinner than 2 m. The simulated results are poor over the fast ice and marginal seas of the Siberian shelves. Averaging over all observational data sets, the better correlations and smaller differences from observed thickness are from the ECCO2 and UW models.

Johnson, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2023

Tracking NO2 Pollution Changes Over Texas: Synthesis of In Situ and Satellite Observations

Nitrogen oxides (NO x ) are major air pollutants that play a crucial role in atmospheric chemistry. We compare Ozone Measuring Instrument's (OMI) NO 2 records with the in situ surface measurements from the Air Quality System of the US Environmental Protection Agency and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality network in the state of Texas with the goal of understanding the correspondence of satellite and in situ surface observations and identifying the potential synergies between the two observing systems. Our analysis of over 40 in situ daily surface site observations, mostly from urban areas, and OMI daily observed data suggests a correlation ( r ) ranging between 0.2 and 0.8. The correlation improves considerably ( r > 0.5) for monthly average data. Weekly variation of surface NO 2 with a Sunday minimum is well captured by OMI tropospheric NO 2 column observations with similar weekend reductions. NO 2 trend in Texas during 2005–2019 is characterized by significant reductions of 20%–36% in highly populated cities and urban centers. However, a significant (up to 80%) increase was observed in oil and gas producing regions of the Permian and Eagle Ford Basins over the same period. In March–April of 2020, like the other US and global cities, Texas experienced up to 60% reduction in NO 2 levels in major cities due to travel restrictions imposed at local and national levels to contain the spread of COVID-19. Though such reduction is temporary, these reductions were significantly larger than those achieved in the past 16 years of OMI record suggesting that technological advancement can curtail NO x emissions.

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2)↗
DOE OSTI2017

Delineating Facies Spatial Distribution by Integrating Ensemble Data Assimilation and Indicator Geostatistics with Level Set Transformation.

A new approach is developed to delineate the spatial distribution of discrete facies (geological units that have unique distributions of hydraulic, physical, and/or chemical properties) conditioned not only on direct data (measurements directly related to facies properties, e.g., grain size distribution obtained from borehole samples) but also on indirect data (observations indirectly related to facies distribution, e.g., hydraulic head and tracer concentration). Our method integrates for the first time ensemble data assimilation with traditional transition probability-based geostatistics. The concept of level set is introduced to build shape parameterization that allows transformation between discrete facies indicators and continuous random variables. The spatial structure of different facies is simulated by indicator models using conditioning points selected adaptively during the iterative process of data assimilation. To evaluate the new method, a two-dimensional semi-synthetic example is designed to estimate the spatial distribution and permeability of two distinct facies from transient head data induced by pumping tests. The example demonstrates that our new method adequately captures the spatial pattern of facies distribution by imposing spatial continuity through conditioning points. The new method also reproduces the overall response in hydraulic head field with better accuracy compared to data assimilation with no constraints on spatial continuity on facies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1994

A fixed-lag Kalman smoother for retrospective data assimilation

Analyses incorporating future data, as well as current and past data, are termed retrospective analyses. In this paper, the fixed-lag Kalman smoother (FLKS) is proposed as a means of providing retrospective analysis capability in data assimilation. The FLKS is a direct generalization of the Kalman filter. It incorporates all data observed up to and including some fixed amount of time past each analysis time. A computationally efficient form of the FLKS is derived. A simple scalar examination of the FLKS demonstrates that incorporating future data improves analyses the most in the presence of dynamical instabilities, for accurate models and for accurate observations. An implementation of the FLKS for two-dimensional linear shallow-water model corroborates the scalar analysis. The numerical experiments also demonstrate the ability of the FLKS to propagate information upstream as well as downstream, thus improving analysis quality substantially in data voids.

Cohn, Stephen E.↗