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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Multilevel Monte Carlo methods for the Grad-Shafranov free boundary problem

The equilibrium configuration of a plasma in an axially symmetric reactor is described mathematically by a free boundary problem associated with the celebrated Grad-Shafranov equation. The presence of uncertainty in the model parameters introduces the need to quantify the variability in the predictions. This is often done by computing a large number of model solutions on a computational grid for an ensemble of parameter values and then obtaining estimates for the statistical properties of solutions. In this study, we explore the savings that can be obtained using multilevel Monte Carlo methods, which reduce costs by performing the bulk of the computations on a sequence of spatial grids that are coarser than the one that would typically be used for a simple Monte Carlo simulation. We examine this approach using both a set of uniformly refined grids and a set of adaptively refined grids guided by a discrete error estimator. Numerical experiments show that multilevel methods dramatically reduce the cost of simulation, with cost reductions typically on the order of 60 or more and possibly as large as 200. Furthermore, adaptive griding results in more accurate computation of geometric quantities such as x-points associated with the model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Breakups are complicated: an efficient representation of collisional breakup in the superdroplet method

Abstract. A key constraint of particle-based methods for modeling cloud microphysics is the conservation of total particle number, which is required for computational tractability. The process of collisional breakup poses a particular challenge to this framework, as breakup events often produce many droplet fragments of varying sizes, which would require creating new particles in the system. This work introduces a representation of collisional breakup in the so-called “superdroplet” method which conserves the total number of superdroplets in the system. This representation extends an existing stochastic collisional-coalescence scheme and samples from a fragment size distribution in an additional Monte Carlo step. This method is demonstrated in a set of idealized box model and single-column warm-rain simulations. We further discuss the effects of the breakup dynamic and fragment size distribution on the particle size distribution, hydrometeor population, and microphysical process rates. Box model experiments serve to characterize the impacts of properties such as coalescence efficiency and fragmentation function on the relative roles of collisional breakup and coalescence. The results demonstrate that this representation of collisional breakup can produce a stationary particle size distribution, in which breakup and coalescence rates are approximately equal, and that it recovers expected behavior such as a reduction in precipitate-sized particles in the column model. The breakup algorithm presented here contributes to an open-source pythonic implementation of the superdroplet method, PySDM, which will facilitate future research using particle-based microphysics.

de Jong, Emily (ORCID:0000000253104554)↗

Lung Cancer in the Mayak Workers Cohort: Risk Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis

The workers at the Mayak nuclear facility near Ozyorsk, Russia are a primary source of information about exposure to radiation at low-dose rates, since they were subject to protracted exposures to external gamma rays and to internal exposures from plutonium inhalation. Here we re-examine lung cancer mortality rates and assess the effects of external gamma and internal plutonium exposures using recently developed Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Using individual lagged mean annual lung doses computed from the dose realizations, we fit excess relative risk (ERR) models to the lung cancer mortality data for the Mayak Workers Cohort using risk-modeling software. We then used the corrected information matrix (CIM) approach to widen the confidence intervals of ERR by taking into account the uncertainty in doses represented by multiple realizations from the Monte Carlo dosimetry systems. Findings of this work revealed that there were 930 lung cancer deaths during follow-up. Plutonium lung doses (but not gamma doses) were generally higher in the new dosimetry systems than those used in the previous analysis. This led to a reduction in the risk per unit dose compared to prior estimates. The estimated ERR/Gy for external gamma-ray exposure was 0.19 (95% CI: 0.07 to 0.31) for both sexes combined, while the ERR/Gy for internal exposures based on mean plutonium doses were 3.5 (95% CI: 2.3 to 4.6) and 8.9 (95% CI: 3.4 to 14) for males and females at attained age 60. Accounting for uncertainty in dose had little effect on the confidence intervals for the ERR associated with gamma-ray exposure, but had a marked impact on confidence intervals, particularly the upper bounds, for the effect of plutonium exposure [adjusted 95% CIs: 1.5 to 8.9 for males and 2.7 to 28 for females]. In conclusion, lung cancer rates increased significantly with both external gamma-ray and internal plutonium exposures. Accounting for the effects of dose uncertainty markedly increased the width of the confidence intervals for the plutonium dose response but had little impact on the external gamma dose effect estimate. Adjusting risk estimate confidence intervals using CIM provides a solution to the important problem of dose uncertainty. This work demonstrates, for the first time, that it is possible and practical to use our recently developed CIM method to make such adjustments in a large cohort study.

uncertainty, radiation risk estimation, Mayak Prod↗

Evaluation of gamma-ray transmission through rectangular collimator slits for application in nuclear fuel spectrometry

Gamma-ray spectrometry is widely applied in several science fields, and in particular in non-destructive gamma scanning and gamma emission tomography of irradiated nuclear fuel. Usually, a collimator is used in the experimental setup, to selectively interrogate a region of interest in the fuel. For the optimization of instrument design, as well as for planning measurement campaigns, predictive models for the transmitted gamma-ray intensity through the collimator are needed. Commonly, Monte Carlo Radiation Transport tools are used for accurate prediction of gamma-ray transport, however, the long computation time requirements when used in low-efficiency experimental setups present challenges. Here, the full-energy peak intensity transmitted through a rectangular collimator slit was examined. A uniform planar surface source emitting isotropically was considered, and the rate of photons reaching an ideal counter plane on the opposite side of the collimator was evaluated by analytical integration. To find a closed-form primitive function, some idealizations were required, and thereby parametric models were obtained for the optical field of view, dependent on slit dimensions (length, height and width) and source-to-collimator distance. For contributions from outside the optical field of view, where a closed-form expression cannot be found, fast numerical integral methods were instead used. The results were validated using the Monte Carlo code MCNP6 and show an agreement within three percent for the numerical method. For the analytical method, deviations up to tens of percent were obtained, which is deemed to still be sufficient for instrument design and measurement planning, where often the order of magnitude of the count rate is not a priori known. The method is planned for use in iterative optimization routines in the design of Gamma Emission Tomography devices, as well as for the prediction of gamma spectra obtained in the planning of fuel inspections. An application of the proposed method was demonstrated in spectrum prediction for a short cooling-time fuel rod test from the Halden reactor.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Efficient high-fidelity TRISO statistical failure analysis using Bison: Applications to AGR-2 irradiation testing

The ability of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel to contain fission products is largely dictated by the quality of the manufacturing process, since most of the fission product release is expected to occur due to coating layer failure in a small number of particles containing defects. The Bison fuel performance code has capabilities to predict failure in individual particles, accounting for the presence of defects, and to apply statistical analysis methods to compute the probability of failure in a set of fuel particles. Bison has recently undergone significant development both to improve its physical representations of fuel particle behavior and to improve the efficiency of its statistical failure calculations. Physical model improvements include new capabilities to account for the pressure generated by fission gases on inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) crack surfaces and to use local material coordinate orientation to accurately incorporate the anisotropy in the material properties in aspherical particles. To improve statistical modeling efficiency, a direct integration approach which involves directly integrating the failure probability function associated with statistically varying parameters has been developed. The direct integration approach is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo (MC) schemes commonly employed, and allows Bison to directly run high-dimensional fuel performance models, which improves the accuracy of failure probability calculations. Finally, a set of benchmark problems is considered here to compare the MC and direct integration approaches, and a statistical failure analysis of compacts in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiments is performed using the direct integration approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An intermediate model for fitting triplet–triplet annihilation in phosphorescent organic light emitting diode materials

Triplet–triplet annihilation (TTA) is one of the primary contributors to efficiency roll-off and permanent material degradation in phosphorescent organic light-emitting diodes. Here, the two limiting case models typically used to quantify this quenching mechanism are multi-step Dexter and single-step Förster, which, respectively, assume ideal Fickian diffusion or perfect trapping of triplet excitons. For device-relevant guest doping levels (typically 5–12 vol. %), both significant diffusion of excitons and trapping due to spatial and energetic disorder exist, so neither conventional model fits experimental data well. We develop and validate an intermediate TTA model, which is a weighted average of the limiting cases of pure radiative decay (no TTA) and multi-step Dexter based TTA that returns an effective TTA rate constant and a parameter quantifying the portion of well-isolated excitons. Kinetic Monte-Carlo simulations and time-resolved photoluminescence measurements of an archetype host–guest system demonstrate that our intermediate model provides significantly improved fits with more realistic physical values, is more robust to variations in experimental conditions, and provides an analysis framework for the effects of trapping on TTA.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Novel Phases and Dynamics of Multi-orbital Mott Insulators

The goal of this project is to gain theoretical insight into magnetism in the presence of spin-orbit coupling (SOC) for multi-orbital Mott insulators. Inspired by the exact solution of the Kitaev model that harbors a quantum spin liquid with novel excitations and struck by its relevance for materials with anisotropic orbital interactions, the PI will explore various new classes of 4d and 5d transition metal oxides. Starting with all electron Hamiltonians, the PI will derive minimal magnetic models. The aim will be to understand the role played by orbital frustration, even in the absence of any geometric frustration, in creating orbitally ordered as well as spin-orbital liquid phases. Orbital frustration arises primarily from the directional or anisotropic nature of d-orbitals in contrast to the isotropic nature of the spin degree of freedom. These models will be investigated by a variety of theoretical and numerical methods, including exact diagonalization, mean field theories, density matrix renormalization group and quantum Monte Carlo methods. Testable predictions for three experiments: nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and resonant x-ray scattering (RXS) to probe orbital ordering and pump-probe experiments to probe quantum dynamics will test the validity of these models for materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17–18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation (Workshop Report)

The Workshop on Methods for R&D Portfolio Analysis and Evaluation convened on 17-18 July 2019 at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colorado, and examined strengths and weaknesses of the various methodologies applicable to R&D portfolio modeling, analysis, and decision support, given pragmatic constraints such as data availability, uncertainties in estimating the impact of R&D spending, and practical operational overheads. Participants employed their deep expertise in approaches such as stochastic optimization, real options, Monte-Carlo analysis, Bayesian networks, decision theory, complex systems analysis, deep uncertainty, and technology-evolution modeling to critique the initial example models developed by the project’s core team and to conduct thought experiments grounded in real-life technology models, progress data, expert elicitation, and portfolio information. This engagement of participants’ methodological expertise with the practical requirements of real-life portfolio decision support yielded ideas for improved approaches, alternative methodological hypotheses, and hybridization of methodologies that are well-grounded theoretically, computationally sound, and realistically executable given data availability and other practical constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Localized Interactions in Neutrino Simulations

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) requires precise modeling of neutrino--nucleus interactions to achieve its neutrino-oscillation measurement goals. GENIE, the Monte Carlo event generator used by DUNE, exhibits a known discrepancy with MicroBooNE measurements of transverse kinematic imbalance (TKI): the data display a larger high-TKI tail while maintaining a peak similar to that predicted by the baseline GENIE model. Previous variations of final-state interaction (FSI) strength affected both the peak and the tail and therefore did not resolve the discrepancy. This work investigates whether inconsistencies between local and global treatments of intranuclear physics contribute to the observed mismodeling. The GENIE FSI routines were modified to use the particle position when generating nucleons, thereby introducing a local-density treatment in the hA and hN intranuclear models for their 2018 and 2025 implementations. Meson-exchange-current (MEC) localization was also tested for the hN 2018 model. Comparisons of the intranuclear scattering-center momentum and its radial dependence confirm that the localization was implemented as intended. Localization produces modest changes in the proton momentum spectrum, primarily at low momentum, but only a small change in the TKI distribution between approximately \SI{0.25}{\giga\electronvolt} and \SI{0.40}{\giga\electronvolt}. These changes are insufficient to account for the discrepancy with MicroBooNE data. Although a localized treatment improves the internal consistency of the GENIE model, the origin of the TKI discrepancy remains unresolved.

Bulla, Braden [Unlisted, US, IL]↗

Assessment of CASL VERA for BWR analysis and application to accident tolerant SiC/SiC channel box

Application of the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) to BWR analysis is assessed in this paper by comparing results to those calculated using other widely-used modeling tools, namely the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s PARCS/PATHS and the Serpent Monte Carlo particle transport code. Additionally, VERA is used to calculate 3-D temperature and fast neutron flux distributions in silicon carbide (SiC) fiber-reinforced, SiC matrix composite (SiC/SiC) BWR channel boxes, which are being studied as an Accident Tolerant Fuel core structural material concept. We found that the code-to-code comparisons were favorable, and the SiC/SiC channel box evaluation demonstrates the many advanced modeling features VERA provides while also highlighting the non-uniformity in fast neutron flux distributions that can play a role in potential SiC/SiC channel box deformation. Traditional BWR analysis tools do not have the calculation fidelity necessary for coupled assessment of flux and temperature gradients in a SiC/SiC channel box. VERA is a state-of-the-art modeling environment that was developed to increase the safety and economic competitiveness of nuclear power through improved modeling accuracy. While VERA has already been deployed in the nuclear industry for PWR applications, the current study is a vital initial step in the extensive development, validation, and verification that VERA must go through to be useful for BWR applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Electronic Structure Theory and Novel Materials

This grant supported research on electronic structure and materials theory, with focus on three main issues: (i) novel techniques to deal with correlation in the electronic ground-state, (ii) topological materials, (iii) the phase diagram of lattice spin models. Regarding (i), we applied to the homogeneous electron liquid an approach that we previously developed in the context of molecular systems. In this scheme the electronic occupation probabilities and the natural spin orbitals are used to construct an approximate two-body density matrix for the electronic ground-state. Regarding (ii) we used standard electronic structure methods based on density functional theory to model topological materials and interpret experimental observations. Finally, regarding (iii) we further developed a numerical approach to compute the renormalized couplings within real space renormalization group theory in the context of lattice spin models. The main findings were the following. (i) We found that with our approximate two-body density matrix, which works well for small molecules, is not sufficiently accurate for condensed phase systems. Missing a systematic way of improving on the adopted approximations, we decided not to pursue this approach. (ii) We performed two studies. In one, we investigated the influence of Te defects on the topological properties of a WTe2 monolayer, finding that while Te vacancies, even in modest concentration, destroy the topological character, Te adatoms do not, consistent with a recent experiment. In another study, we predicted Weyl semimetal character and strong anomalous Hall effect in the Heusler compensated ferrimagnet Ti2MnAl. (iii) We developed a new Monte Carlo method to do real space renormalization group calculations for lattice spin models. We subsequently extended the scheme to deal with lattice spin models in presence of quenched disorder, finding that the approach can distinguish systems with finite and strong disorder. In the finite disorder case, the method allows one to find with good approximation the critical coupling distribution and the critical exponents.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Phase diagram of the anisotropic triangular lattice Hubbard model

In a recent study [Phys. Rev. X 10, 021042 (2020)], we showed using large-scale density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) simulations on infinite cylinders that the triangular lattice Hubbard model has a chiral spin liquid phase. In this work, we introduce hopping anisotropy in the model, making one of the three distinct bonds on the lattice stronger or weaker compared with the other two. We implement the anisotropy in two inequivalent ways, one which respects the mirror symmetry of the cylinder and one which breaks this symmetry. In the full range of anisotropy, from the square lattice to weakly coupled one-dimensional chains, we find a variety of phases. Near the isotropic limit we find the three phases identified in our previous work: metal, chiral spin liquid, and 120$^\circ$ spiral order; we note that a recent paper suggests the apparently metallic phase may actually be a Luther-Emery liquid, which would also be in agreement with our results. Furthermore, when one bond is weakened by a relatively small amount, the ground state quickly becomes the square lattice N\'{e}el order. When one bond is strengthened, the story is much less clear, with the phases that we find depending on the orientation of the anisotropy and on the cylinder circumference. While our work is to our knowledge the first DMRG study of the anisotropic triangular lattice Hubbard model, the overall phase diagram we find is broadly consistent with that found previously using other methods, such as variational Monte Carlo and dynamical mean field theory.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Auxiliary field Quantum Monte Carlo for dilute neutrons on the lattice

We employ constrained path Auxiliary Field Quantum Monte Carlo (AFQMC) in the pursuit of studying physical nuclear systems using a lattice formalism. Since AFQMC has been widely used in the study of condensed-matter systems such as the Hubbard model, we benchmark our method against published results for both one- and two-dimensional Hubbard model calculations. We then turn our attention to cold atomic and nuclear systems. We use an onsite contact interaction that can be tuned in order to reproduce the known scattering length and effective range of a given interaction. Developing this machinery allows us to extend our calculations to study nuclear systems within a lattice formalism. In conclusion, we perform initial calculations for a range of nuclear systems from two- to few-body neutron systems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Search for low mass dark matter in DarkSide-50: the bayesian network approach

Abstract We present a novel approach for the search of dark matter in the DarkSide-50 experiment, relying on Bayesian Networks. This method incorporates the detector response model into the likelihood function, explicitly maintaining the connection with the quantity of interest. No assumptions about the linearity of the problem or the shape of the probability distribution functions are required, and there is no need to morph signal and background spectra as a function of nuisance parameters. By expressing the problem in terms of Bayesian Networks, we have developed an inference algorithm based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo to calculate the posterior probability. A clever description of the detector response model in terms of parametric matrices allows us to study the impact of systematic variations of any parameter on the final results. Our approach not only provides the desired information on the parameter of interest, but also potential constraints on the response model. Our results are consistent with recent published analyses and further refine the parameters of the detector response model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Characterizing Performance of Freshwater Wetland Methane Models Across Time Scales at FLUXNET-CH 4 Sites Using Wavelet Analyses

Process-based land surface models are important tools for estimating global wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions and projecting their behavior across space and time. So far there are no performance assessments of model responses to drivers at multiple time scales. In this study, we apply wavelet analysis to identify the dominant time scales contributing to model uncertainty in the frequency domain. We evaluate seven wetland models at 23 eddy covariance tower sites. Our study first characterizes site-level patterns of freshwater wetland CH 4 fluxes (FCH 4 ) at different time scales. A Monte Carlo approach was developed to incorporate flux observation error to avoid misidentification of the time scales that dominate model error. Our results suggest that (a) significant model-observation disagreements are mainly at multi-day time scales (<15 days); (b) most of the models can capture the CH 4 variability at monthly and seasonal time scales (>32 days) for the boreal and Arctic tundra wetland sites but have significant bias in variability at seasonal time scales for temperate and tropical/subtropical sites; (c) model errors exhibit increasing power spectrum as time scale increases, indicating that biases at time scales <5 days could contribute to persistent systematic biases on longer time scales; and (d) differences in error pattern are related to model structure (e.g., proxy of CH 4 production). Our evaluation suggests the need to accurately replicate FCH 4 variability, especially at short time scales, in future wetland CH 4 model developments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Unveiling the Essential Parameters Driving Mineral Reactions during CO2 Storage in Carbonate Aquifers through Proxy Models

Numerical simulation is a commonly employed technique for studying carbon dioxide (CO2) storage processes in porous media, particularly saline aquifers. It enables the representation of diverse trapping mechanisms and the assessment of CO2 retention capacity within the subsurface. The intricate physicochemical phenomena involved necessitate the incorporation of multiphase flow, accurate depiction of fluid and rock properties, and their interactions. Among these factors, geochemical reaction rates and mechanisms are pivotal for successful CO2 trapping in carbonate reactive rocks. However, research on kinetic parameters and the influence of lithology on CO2 storage remains limited. This limitation is partly due to the challenges faced in laboratory experiments, where the time scale of the reactions and the lack of in situ conditions hinder accurate measurement of mineral reaction rates. This study employs proxy models constructed using response surfaces calibrated with simulation results to address uncertainties associated with geochemical reactions. Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to explore a broader range of parameters and identify influential factors affecting CO2 mineralization. The findings indicate that an open database containing kinetic parameters can support uncertainty assessment. Additionally, the proxy models effectively represent objective functions related to CO2 injectivity and mineralization, with calcite dissolution playing a predominant role. pH, calcite concentration, and CO2 injection rate significantly impact dolomite precipitation, while quartz content remains unaffected.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Thermonuclear 28 P(p, γ ) 29 S reaction rate and astrophysical implication in ONe nova explosion

An accurate 28 P(p, γ) 29 S reaction rate is crucial to defining the nucleosynthesis products of explosive hydrogen burning in ONe novae. Using the recently released nuclear mass of 29 S, together with a shell model and a direct capture calculation, we reanalyzed the 28 P(p, γ) 29 S thermonuclear reaction rate and its astrophysical implication. We focus on improving the astrophysical rate for 28 P(p, γ) 29 S based on the newest nuclear mass data. Our goal is to explore the impact of the new rate and associated uncertainties on the nova nucleosynthesis. We evaluated this reaction rate via the sum of the isolated resonance contribution instead of the previously used Hauser-Feshbach statistical model. The corresponding rate uncertainty at different energies was derived using a Monte Carlo method. Nova nucleosynthesis is computed with the 1D hydrodynamic code SHIVA. The contribution from the capture on the first excited state at 105.64 keV in 28 P is taken into account for the first time. We find that the capture rate on the first excited state in 28 P is up to more than 12 times larger than the ground-state capture rate in the temperature region of 2.5 × 10 7 K to 4 × 10 8 K, resulting in the total 28 P(p, γ) 29 S reaction rate being enhanced by a factor of up to 1.4 at ~1 × 10 9 K. In addition, the rate uncertainty has been quantified for the first time. It is found that the new rate is smaller than the previous statistical model rates, but it still agrees with them within uncertainties for nova temperatures. The statistical model appears to be roughly valid for the rate estimation of this reaction in the nova nucleosynthesis scenario. Using the 1D hydrodynamic code SHIVA, we performed the nucleosynthesis calculations in a nova explosion to investigate the impact of the new rates of 28 P(p, γ) 29 S. Our calculations show that the nova abundance pattern is only marginally affected if we use our new rates with respect to the same simulations but statistical model rates. Finally, the isotopes whose abundance is most influenced by the present 28 P(p, γ) 29 S uncertainty are 28 Si, 33,34 S, 35,37 Cl, and 36 Ar, with relative abundance changes at the level of only 3% to 4%.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗