Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Model calibration”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,045 records · Page 58
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

AFRL Additive Manufacturing Modeling Series: Challenge 1, Characterization of Residual Strain Distribution in Additively-Manufactured Metal Parts Using Energy-Dispersive Diffraction

A machine component fabricated by additive manufacturing (AM) of metal powders often possesses steep residual stress gradients with significant magnitudes due to large temperature gradients that transpire within a localized area during fabrication. These processing-induced residual stresses can cause distortion of the part, and if they are of significant magnitude, they could induce cracking of the component, degrade printability, and/or diminish subsequent mechanical performance. The ability to predict these residual stresses imparted by AM is an important step in permeating AM technology for advanced manufacturing. Calibration and validation of AM process models used for prediction are, therefore, a critical step in understanding the origin and mitigating the challenges associated with residual stresses inherent to the AM process. In the present work, the residual strain distributions in components with simple geometries fabricated by a laser powder bed fusion (LBPF) process were characterized non-destructively using energy-dispersive X-ray diffraction in support of the US Air Force Research Laboratory Additive Manufacturing Modeling Challenge Series Groeber et al. (JOM 70:441-448, 2018). The measurement setup and approach are described in detail so that the data can be used as a benchmark to calibrate and validate models for the prediction of macro-scale residual stresses due to the LPBF process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-count rate effects in event processing for XRISM/ Resolve X-ray microcalorimeter: I. Ground test

The spectroscopic performance of an X-ray microcalorimeter is compromised at high count rates. We utilize the Resolve X-ray microcalorimeter onboard the XRISM satellite to examine the effects observed during high-count rate measurements and propose modeling approaches to mitigate them. We specifically address the following instrumental effects that impact performance: CPU limit, pile-up, and untriggered electrical cross-talk. Experimental data at high count rates were acquired during ground testing using the flight model instrument and a calibration X-ray source. In the experiment, data processing not limited by the performance of the onboard CPU was run in parallel, which cannot be done in orbit. This makes it possible to access the data degradation caused by limited CPU performance. We use these data to develop models that allow for a more accurate estimation of the aforementioned effects. To illustrate the application of these models in observation planning, we present a simulated observation of GX 13+1. Understanding and addressing these issues is crucial to enhancing the reliability and precision of X-ray spectroscopy in situations characterized by elevated count rates.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combined Meteorological and Hydrologic Uncertainties Shape Projections of Future Soil Moisture in the Eastern United States

Physical hazards pose risks to many critical systems. Designing adaptive measures to mitigate these risks is challenging due to large uncertainties in modeling future hazards and the associated sectoral responses. Here, we help address this challenge in a hydrologic context by examining the combined role of meteorological forcing and hydrologic parameter uncertainties in shaping projections of future soil moisture. By encoding a simple conceptual water balance model in a differentiable programming framework, we facilitate fast runtimes and an efficient calibration, enabling an improved uncertainty analysis. We characterize uncertainty in model parameters by calibrating against different target data sets and by using several loss functions. We then convolve the resulting parameter ensemble with a set of Earth system model projections to produce a large ensemble (2,340 members) of daily soil moisture simulations. Focusing on the eastern United States, we find that most ensemble members project a drying of soils across the region, although some simulate wetter conditions throughout this century. Our ensemble shows an increase in the frequency and intensity of dry extremes while there is less agreement for wet extremes. We conduct sensitivity analyses on several soil moisture signatures to measure the relative influence of meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties across space and time. Both meteorological and hydrologic factors contribute consistently to uncertainty surrounding long-term trends, while changes to both wet and dry soil extremes are typically more sensitive to hydrologic parameter uncertainty. Our results underscore the need to account for varied sources of uncertainty when developing long-term hydrometeorological projections.

Lafferty, David C. [University of Illinois Urbana‐↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural Posterior Estimation for Scalable and Accurate Inverse Parameter Inference in Li-Ion Batteries

Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter estimation via Bayesian calibration, diagnostics can account for the uncertainty due to model fitness, data noise, and the observability of any given parameter. However, Bayesian calibration in Li-ion batteries using electrochemical data is computationally intensive even when using a fast surrogate in place of physics-based models, requiring many thousands of model evaluations. A fully amortized alternative is neural posterior estimation (NPE). NPE shifts the computational burden from the parameter estimation step to data generation and model training, reducing the parameter estimation time from minutes to milliseconds, enabling real-time applications. The present work shows that NPE can infer parameters equally or more accurately than Bayesian calibration, even if it leads to higher voltage reconstruction errors. We also demonstrate that the higher computational costs for data generation are tractable even in high-dimensional cases (ranging from 6 to 27 estimated parameters). The NPE method also offers several interpretability advantages over Bayesian calibration, such as local parameter sensitivity to specific regions of the voltage curve. The NPE method is demonstrated using an experimental fast charge dataset, with parameter estimates validated against measurements of loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NatLabRockies/BatFIT).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Equation of state and strength of diamond in high-pressure ramp loading

Diamond is used extensively as a component in high-energy-density experiments, but existing equation of state (EOS) models do not capture its observed response to dynamic loading. In particular, in contrast with first-principles theoretical models of equilibrium multiphase EOS, no solid-solid phase changes have been detected, and no general-purpose EOS models match the measured ambient isotherm. We have performed density functional theory (DFT) calculations of the diamond phase to ~10 TPa, well beyond its predicted range of thermodynamic stability, and used these results as the basis of a Mie-Grüneisen EOS. We also performed DFT calculations of the elastic moduli, and calibrated an algebraic elasticity model for use in simulations. We then estimated the flow stress of diamond by comparison with the stress-density relation measured experimentally in ramp-loading experiments. Furthermore, the resulting constitutive model allows us to place a constraint on the Taylor-Quinney factor (the fraction of plastic work converted to heat) from the observation that diamond does not melt on ramp compression.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling gas–shell mixing in ICF with separated reactants

Mixing between fuel and shell materials in ICF implosions can affect implosion dynamics and even prevent ignition. We use data from a series of separated reactant experiments on the National Ignition Facility to calibrate and test the predictive power of gas–shell mix models. Two models are used to estimate fuel–shell mix: a Reynolds-averaged turbulence model and molecular diffusion. Minor uncertainties in capsule manufacture, experimental conditions, and values for mix model parameters produce significant variation in simulation results. Using input/output pairs from 1D simulations, we train Gaussian process surrogate models to predict experimental quantities of interest. The surrogates are used to construct posteriors for mix model parameters by marginalizing over uncertainties in capsule manufacture and experimental conditions. Mix models are calibrated with a subset of experimental data (neutron yields, ion temperature, and bang time) and tested using the remaining data. In general, both the diffusion and turbulence model correctly predict experimental DT and TT neutron yields. Despite having more free parameters, the turbulence model underpredicts ion temperature at high convergence ratio. Furthermore, the simpler diffusion model correctly predicts these temperatures, suggesting nonhydrodynamic gas–shell mix. The computational model consistently overpredicts DD neutron yield, indicating possible shortcomings outside of the mix model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Application of soot carbonization kinetics to deduce meaningful soot formation rates in premixed flat flames

Soot formation rates measured in fuel-rich premixed flat flames are frequently used to calibrate or validate chemical kinetic models of soot formation. Unfortunately, these flames feature an extended region of soot precursor particle inception and carbonization that complicates interpretation of soot measurements and leads to a fundamental inconsistency in the nature of the soot material that is modeled versus what is being measured when using non-intrusive, optical techniques. In the work presented here, previously reported data on two canonical sooting ethylene-air premixed flames at 1 atm pressure are interpreted via a new analysis approach that combines soot optical dispersion coefficient measurements with soot carbonization kinetics. This analytical approach explicitly accounts for the production of poorly ordered soot precursor particle mass and its carbonization over time in the flames, providing a clear distinction between the formation rate of precursor particles and their transformation into ordered, solid soot particulate mass. In particular, the results of the analysis show that the precursor particles form much earlier in the flame than the majority of the carbonized soot and their formation rate is two to three times faster than that of ordered soot. The results also show that particle agglomeration begins when the particles are at an intermediate state of carbonization. In conclusion, these results offer a valuable new interpretation of these important datasets and should lead to substantial improvements in the development and calibration of quantitative soot models.

Soot formation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experiments and numerical modeling of surrogate droplet combustion for a 93 octane gasoline calibration fuel

Gasoline is the world’s most prolific liquid transportation fuel for ground transportation vehicles. Yet, a fundamental understanding of its burning characteristics is still lacking. Complicating this matter is the highly multicomponent nature of gasoline (comprised of hundreds of chemical species) and the seasonable variability of its composition due to variations in the crude oil feedstocks used in refining. The need to bring order to this complex problem has led to development of calibration fuels (Tier II in presented study) which on average will provide repeatable metrics that replicate performance of refined gasoline for various engine designs. This study presents results of experiments using the configuration of an isolated droplet to study the combustion dynamics of calibration fuel and three different surrogates (S4, S5, S6) for the calibration fuel. Droplet burning is under microgravity conditions, where gas transport is determined entirely by fuel evaporation in order to promote spherical symmetry in the burning process. The initial droplet diameters ranged between 0.55 mm and 0.60 mm. The droplets were spark-ignited and their burning histories were recorded by digital video cameras to obtain quantitative data. For each fuel, the evolutions of droplet, flame, and soot-shell diameters were measured to calculate the burn rates, flame-droplet diameter ratios (FSR) and soot-droplet diameter ratios. Additionally, a detailed numerical modeling is presented. This simulation includes multicomponent phase equilibrium, unsteady gas and liquid transport, radiative heat transfer, internal liquid diffusion and detailed combustion chemistry of different fuels during their burning process. Experiment results show that the calibration fuel and surrogates have a close burn rates and FSR, and S5 presents a relatively similar results with calibration fuel. Predictions from the numerical simulation using the surrogate are compared with experiment measurements, which showed a good agreement with the experiment results, including the droplet burning rate and FSR.

Guo, Songtao↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modelling yield cap evolution in sandstone based on brittle creep experiments

The Zenifim Formation is being considered as a potential disposal formation for a deep borehole nuclear repository concept in Israel. Site selection and repository construction are intended to ensure that waste is separated from circulating groundwater, but long-term deformation of the wellbore could potentially create fluid flow pathways. To understand how time-dependent rock strength could affect wellbore stability, here we conducted creep tests under low to moderate confining pressures on retrieved core from the Zenifim formation. During creep, samples strain slowly as gradual damage accumulation progressively weakens the samples. Failure eventually occurred through the near-instantaneous formation of a shear fracture. Experimental results were used to calibrate a continuum damage poro-elastic model for sandstones. The calibrated damage-poro-elastic model successfully simulates different types of loading experiments including quasi-static and creep. The state of strain in experiments is close to yield during loading as the yield cap continuously evolves with damage accumulation. For creep tests, most damage occurs during triaxial loading. Minor damage accumulation occurs under constant load until the final stage of creep, where damage accelerates and promotes unstable fracturing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Smart System for the Contactless Measurement of Energy Expenditure

Energy Expenditure (EE) (kcal/day), a key element to guide obesity treatment, is measured from CO 2 production, VCO 2 (mL/min), and/or O 2 consumption, VO 2 (mL/min). Current technologies are limited due to the requirement of wearable facial accessories. A novel system, the Smart Pad, which measures EE via VCO 2 from a room’s ambient CO 2 concentration transients was evaluated. Resting EE (REE) and exercise VCO 2 measurements were recorded using Smart Pad and a reference instrument to study measurement duration’s influence on accuracy. The Smart Pad displayed 90% accuracy (±1 SD) for 14–19 min of REE measurement and for 4.8–7.0 min of exercise, using known room’s air exchange rate. Additionally, the Smart Pad was validated measuring subjects with a wide range of body mass indexes (BMI = 18.8 to 31.4 kg/m2), successfully validating the system accuracy across REE’s measures of ~1200 to ~3000 kcal/day. Furthermore, high correlation between subjects’ VCO 2 and λ for CO 2 accumulation was observed (p < 0.00001, R = 0.785) in a 14.0 m3 sized room. This finding led to development of a new model for REE measurement from ambient CO 2 without λ calibration using a reference instrument. The model correlated in nearly 100% agreement with reference instrument measures (y = 1.06x, R = 0.937) using an independent dataset (N = 56).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrated protonic ceramic electrochemical cell for sustainable energy economy using water-energy nexus framework

Reliance on fossil fuels will continue for the next decades even though there are global pushes away from it to mitigate the overarching climate challenge, most especially by its highest consumers and availability. While there is a hastening global shift away from fossil fuel, integrating its assets into this technology helps limit the risk and future losses of stranded assets and reduce the cost of investment in the new technologies. Moreover, the generation of electricity from intermittent renewable sources like solar and wind has witnessed a significant surge in recent years, leading to a pressing demand for practical energy storage systems. Electrical energy storage is anticipated to play a pivotal role in the future global energy system, facilitating load-leveling operations to support the greater integration of renewable and distributed generation. Reversible electrochemical cells (RECs) offer a promising option for addressing the fossil fuel assets integration and energy storage challenges through the interconversion between electrical and chemical energy and concurrent utilizing carbon emission. In their electrolysis mode, the RECs convert electricity into durable, storable, and portable valuable chemical fuels such as syngas and methane. Conversely, the produced chemical fuels can be used as reactants in the fuel cell mode to generate electricity on demand with minimal (hydrocarbons) or zero when H2 or NH3 is used emissions. However, a challenging goal for this type of technology remains to achieve optimal operation and high roundtrip efficiencies, which has hindered the deployment of previous electrochemical cells. This dissertation demonstrates how reversible protonic ceramic electrochemical cells (RePCECs) can be integrated with fossil fuel power plants and renewable energy sources as a potential energy storage system. In this work, integrated RePCEC systems are designed and examined using computational modeling at scales to determine appropriate system configurations and operating conditions that achieve high roundtrip efficiencies. Cell level design of the PCEC is the first approach, several cells are assembled for the stack level model that is integrated into combined cycle powerplant and solar photovoltaic for the system level model. After critical literature review, this answered the operational and integration research questions proposed to address these challenges. The designed systems perform two functions, utilizing captured CO2 and storing renewable energy through co-electrolysis of steam and CO2. The co-electrolysis reaction involves endothermic water electrolysis and exothermic methanation reaction. To enhance high roundtrip efficiency, there is a need for thermal balance and management in the electrolysis mode. This involves operating the RePCEC stack under conditions that favor methane production to balance out heat needed by water electrolysis, it crucial for the RePCEC system operation. Methanation is enhanced by low temperatures. Leveraging on fabricated BCZYYb-electrolyte RePCEC, the cell model designed revealed that the optimum temperature for methane production is 450℃ at atmospheric pressure. Thus, to achieve optimum system performance, operating in the temperature range 450-525℃ is recommended at the given configuration, combining between the optimum temperature for methane production and temperature for the optimum stack roundtrip efficiency. Configuration with carbon capture system and purge stream is the optimum configuration from the seven conceptualized and evaluated. The modeling outcomes include a thermodynamic examination of integrated RePCEC systems, calibration of cell and stack level models, and steady-state simulation and integration into a 600MW combined cycle power plant retrofitted with two two-stage membrane-based carbon capture system and a wastewater treatment and recovery unit. At 100% powerplant loading, the stack and system roundtrip efficiencies are 72% and 51.37% respectively. Adding a purge stream for produced hydrogen at the system downstream improves the efficiencies to 74 and 55.48% respectively. At atmospheric pressure and 525℃, the system model suggests that a stack roundtrip of 82% is achievable, and overall system efficiency increases by reducing the energy consumption by the balance of plant components for steam generation and storage. Economic analysis of the process gives levelized cost of methane as $2.24/MMBtu lower than the conventional production route that range between $3.46/MMBtu and $9.85/MMBtu. The lifecycle analysis shows that the global warming potential for the production of methane and hydrogen from the RePCEC system is 3.83 kg CO2 eq which is lower than 9.35 kg CO2 eq emission during steam methane reforming for hydrogen production. This answered both the environmental and economic concerns in the raised research question. The proposed RePCEC configuration and analysis carried out in this dissertation to address the surge in renewable energy and challenges with PCEC technology hold significant potential in achieving large-scale energy storage while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions. These advancements, coupled with suitable governmental policies and incentive programs, have the potential to economically disrupt the natural gas industries by using RePCEC systems for methane production, thereby making them more favorable for eventual implementation and commercialization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constraints on Neutrino Oscillation Parameters from Neutrinos and Antineutrinos with Machine Learning

NOvA is a two detector, long baseline neutrino oscillation experiment measuring the oscillations of muon neutrinos from the \numi neutrino beam over a baseline of \SI{810}{km}. The experiment uses four oscillation channels, $\numu \rightarrow \numu$, $\numubar \rightarrow \numubar$, $\numu \rightarrow \nue$, and $\numubar \rightarrow \nuebar$, with a peak neutrino energy of \SI{1.8}{GeV}. This dissertation describes the analysis of these channels using a dataset of $13.6\times10^{20}$ protons on target neutrino beam mode and $12.5\times10^{20}$ protons on target antineutrino beam mode. The analysis makes use of improvements in the treatment of systematic uncertainties and machine learning techniques to reconstruct neutrino interactions. A technique for decorrelating systematic errors using principle component analysis was utilized to reduce and optimize neutrino cross section and beam related uncertainties. The improved machine learning algorithms make use of convolutional ne ural net works for neutrino event classification, particle classification, and instance segmentation. The selection of neutrino signal events utilizing the neutrino event classifier shows an efficiency of 63\% for the selection of electron neutrinos in neutrino beam mode and 75\% for electron antineutrinos in antineutrino beam mode. Using this algorithm, 82 appearing electron neutrino candidates and 33 appearing electron antineutrino candidates were observed with expected backgrounds of 26.8 and 14.0 respectively. In addition, 211 surviving muon neutrino candidates and 105 muon antineutrino candidates were identified with a purity of more than 96\% using the same neutrino event classifier. Fitting these data to the three flavor neutrino oscillation model, using constraints on \thetaonetwo, \thetaonethree, and \dmsqonetwo from solar and reactor neutrino experiments, the oscillation parameters are measured to be $\sintwothree = 0.57^{+0.04}_{-0.03}$, $\dmsqthreetwo = \SI[parse-numbers= false]{+ 2.41\pm0.07 \times 10^{-3}}{eV^2}$, and $\dcp=0.82^{+0.27}_{-0.87}\pi$ with a preference for the normal neutrino mass hierarchy. Leading systematic uncertainties for these measurements come from detector calibration and neutrino interaction models.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Developing Science-based fueling protocols for 250-bar hydrogen tanks onboard hydrogen ferries: Experiments and modeling

Combined modeling and experimental studies are reported of the fueling of a large (28 kg capacity) 250-bar Type IV hydrogen tank of the type being deployed on early hydrogen ferries, such as the MV Sea Change. The primary goal was to determine how such tanks can be successfully fueled with hydrogen (state of charge greater than 97%) within 45 minutes without exceeding the 82 °C temperature limit for such tanks. The modeling studies show that a gas injector is needed to avoid thermal stratification during hydrogen fueling which can result in potential hot spots. Empirically, precooling of the hydrogen to 0 °C was found to be needed in some of the cases examined, as ambient conditions greatly affected the need for a precooling to achieve the 45-minute fill time desired by end users. The experimental results afforded a calibration of the engineering model SOFIL for these large 250-bar tanks, which now enables using SOFIL to predict volume-averaged hydrogen fueling temperatures to an accuracy of ±2.7°C for these tanks. The model can therefore be used to evaluate potential scenarios for development of a standardized fueling methodology for ferries utilizing large Type-IV tanks.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulating measurable ecosystem carbon and nitrogen dynamics with the mechanistically defined MEMS 2.0 model

Abstract. For decades, predominant soil biogeochemical models have used conceptual soil organic matter (SOM) pools and only simulated them to a shallow depth in soil. Efforts to overcome these limitations have prompted the development of the new generation SOM models, including MEMS 1.0, which represents measurable biophysical SOM fractions, over the entire root zone, and embodies recent understanding of the processes that govern SOM dynamics. Here we present the result of continued development of the MEMS model, version 2.0. MEMS 2.0 is a full ecosystem model with modules simulating plant growth with above- and belowground inputs, soil water and temperature by layer, decomposition of plant inputs and SOM, and mineralization and immobilization of nitrogen (N). The model simulates two commonly measured SOM pools – particulate and mineral-associated organic matter (POM and MAOM, respectively). We present results of calibration and validation of the model with several grassland sites in the US. MEMS 2.0 generally captured the soil carbon (C) stocks (R2 of 0.89 and 0.6 for calibration and validation, respectively) and their distributions between POM and MAOM throughout the entire soil profile. The simulated soil N matches measurements but with lower accuracy (R2 of 0.73 and 0.31 for calibration and validation of total N in SOM, respectively) than for soil C. Simulated soil water and temperature were compared with measurements, and the accuracy is comparable to the other commonly used models. The seasonal variation in gross primary production (GPP; R2 = 0.83), ecosystem respiration (ER; R2 = 0.89), net ecosystem exchange (NEE; R2 = 0.67), and evapotranspiration (ET; R2 = 0.71) was well captured by the model. We will further develop the model to represent forest and agricultural systems and improve it to incorporate new understanding of SOM decomposition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling perennial bioenergy crops in the E3SM land model (ELMv2)

Perennial bioenergy crops are increasingly important for the production of ethanol and other renewable fuels, and as part of an agricultural system that alters the climate through its impact on biogeophysical and biogeochemical properties of the terrestrial ecosystem. Few earth system models (ESMs) represent such crops, however. In this study, we expand the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELMv2) to include perennial bioenergy crops with a high potential for mitigating climate change. We focus on high-productivity miscanthus and switchgrass, estimating various parameters associated with their different growth stages and performing a global sensitivity analysis to identify and optimize these parameters. The sensitivity analysis identifies five parameters associated with phenology, carbon/nitrogen allocation, stomatal conductance, and maintenance respiration as the most sensitive parameters for carbon and energy fluxes. We calibrated and validated the model against observations and found that the model closely captures the observed seasonality and the magnitude of carbon fluxes. The validated model represents the latent heat flux fairly well, but sensible heat flux for miscanthus is not well captured. Finally, we validated the model against observed leaf area index (LAI) and harvest amount and found modeled LAI captured observed seasonality , although the model underestimates LAI and harvest amount. This work provides a foundation for future ESM analyses of the interactions between perennial bioenergy crops and carbon, water, and energy dynamics in the larger earth system, and sets the stage for studying the impact of future biofuel expansion on climate and terrestrial systems.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-resolution modeling of indoor radon exposure with uncertainty quantification in Utah

Indoor radon accounts for 37% of population-level exposure to ionizing radiation in the United States. However, radon metrics are typically reported at coarse spatial scales, potentially obscuring meaningful local variation. We developed a high-resolution modeling framework to estimate indoor radon concentrations across Utah while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty. A total of 19,497 residential radon measurements collected between 2006 and 2017 were combined with environmental and housing characteristics and analyzed using a geospatial neural network that accommodates spatial dependence and nonlinear associations. Predictions were generated on a uniform hexagonal grid at 0.73 km2 resolution (H3 level 8). Out-of-sample predictions aggregated to the H3 level 8 grid showed good agreement with observed concentrations (Pearson r=0.64), while household-level predictions exhibited more moderate agreement (r=0.45). The model produced well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, with 24.1% of held-out observations exceeding the predicted 75th-percentile threshold. Maps of predicted radon concentrations and the probability of exceeding the U.S. EPA action level of 148 Bq/m3 (4 pCi/L) revealed substantial fine-scale spatial heterogeneity that was not apparent in conventional coarse-resolution summaries, with greater local variability observed in densely monitored urban counties than in sparsely sampled regions. High-resolution radon models that explicitly quantify uncertainty provide a useful framework for characterizing the spatial distribution of indoor radon and identifying areas of elevated exceedance risk. These findings highlight the value of fine-scale monitoring data and uncertainty-aware modeling approaches for radon exposure assessment, environmental risk characterization, and radon-related health research.

Wu, Yunhan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178842994)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantitative Analysis of the Effects of Natural and Human Factors on a Hydrological System in Zhangweinan Canal Basin

Drought is a water deficit state caused by large-scale climate change that cannot be avoided by a water resource management system. Water scarcity refers to the unsustainable utilization of water resources over a long time, which is the result of water management policies. However, water deficits caused by drought and water scarcity often occur simultaneously and are indistinguishable. This study proposes a model-based simulation framework that can quantitatively distinguish natural factors (drought) from human factors (water scarcity) in a hydrological system. The simulation was applied to the Zhangweinan Canal Basin, based on the runoff sequences from 1950 to 2004. The results show that the runoff curve number, soil depth, soil available water, soil evaporation compensation coefficient, base runoff α coefficient and the maximum canopy interception have the highest sensitivity to runoff, and that the calibrated and validated SWAT model can effectively simulate the runoff process in the Zhangweinan Canal Basin and similar areas. Abrupt changes in human activities in 1975 and water scarcity led to the disappearance of the summer peak runoff period in both wet and dry years. Human factors are the main reason for the change in the hydrological system in the study area; the runoff loss caused by human factors is four times that caused by natural factors according to the proposed variable threshold. This study proposes a model-based simulation framework that can help water resource managers to distinguish the effects of drought and water scarcity in water-stressed areas and adjust management accordingly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Laboratory Data on the EUV/Soft-X-Ray Flux Problem of Fe XVIII and Fe XIX

Observations by the spacecraft Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE), Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE), Chandra, and XMM-Newton of Capella (α Aurigae) have encountered problems with the relative intensities of the Fe XVIII and Fe XIX line emission in the soft-X-ray (XUV) and extreme-ultraviolet spectral ranges versus various model predictions based on theoretical atomic data. The reason may either lie in astrophysical phenomena, e.g., at emission or because of absorption by the interstellar medium, in the theoretical atomic data, in one or more spectrometer calibrations, or in the spectral modeling. Here, by measurements using an electron beam ion trap we provide laboratory data obtained under conditions that are reasonably close to stellar emission regions. The laboratory data on Fe XVIII and Fe XIX show line ratios that are rather similar to the observations of Capella. The measurements, therefore, rule out astrophysical phenomena and calibration errors and point to issues with the modeling of the observed Capella emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗