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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Developing nonlinear laser-plasma instability models for high-fidelity, multi-physics simulation capability for ICF/HED (IC Report) [Slides]

Modeling nonlinear effects of laser plasma instabilities (LPI) is critically important for ICF/HED experiments. Our project has the following goals: • Develop physics-based nonlinear LPI models using PIC simulations • Couple the nonlinear LPI effects to macroscopic modeling of ICF/HED exp. through laser ray-tracing (LRT).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transmission-Distribution Dynamic Co-Simulation of Electric Vehicles Providing Grid Frequency Response: Preprint

This paper investigates the impacts of electric vehicles (EVs) on power system frequency regulation based on an open-source transmission-and-distribution (T&D) dynamic co-simulation framework. The development of a EV dynamic model based on appropriate WECC dynamic model is introduced first, then the T&D dynamic co-simulation platform is described. The advantage of the overall platform is that DERs such as distributed photovoltaic (DPV) and EV are modeled explicitly in both transmission and distribution simulators for frequency dynamics and voltage, respectively. In the case studies, EVs frequency responses (i.e., primary and/or secondary) are simulated after the system is exposed to N-1 contingency such as a generation trip. Various EV frequency regulation participation strategies are investigated as well to study their impacts on system frequency response. The studies shows that EVs have potential capability to provide effective frequency regulation services.

electric vehicle↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding Twinning and Deformation in High Entropy Alloys

A combination of high strength and high ductility has been observed in multi-principal element alloys due to twin formation attributed to low stacking fault energy (SFE). In the pursuit of low SFE alloys, a key bottleneck is the lack of understanding of the composition–SFE cor- relations that would guide tailoring SFE via alloy composition. Using density functional theory (DFT), we show that dopant radius, which have been postulated as a key descriptor for SFE in dilute alloys, does not fully explain SFE trends across different host metals. Instead, charge density is a much more central descriptor. It allows us to (1) explain contrasting SFE trends in Ni and Cu host metals due to various dopants in dilute concentrations, (2) explain the large SFE variations observed in the literature even within a given alloy composition due to the nearest neighbor environments in “model” concentrated alloys, and (3) develop a machine learning model that can be used to predict SFEs in multi-elemental alloys. This model opens a possibility to use charge density as a descriptor for predicting SFE in alloys. Furthermore, a descriptor-less machine learning (ML) model based only on charge density images extracted from density functional theory (DFT) is developed to predict stacking fault energies (SFE) in concentrated alloys. The model is based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) as one of the promising ML techniques for dealing with complex images and data. Identification of correct descriptors is a key bottleneck to develop ML models for predicting materials properties. Often, in most ML models, textbook physical descriptors such as atomic radius, valence charge and electronegativity are used as descriptors which have limitations because these properties change in concentrated alloys when multiple elements are mixed to form a solid solution. We illustrate that, within the scope of DFT, the search for descriptors can be circumvented by electronic charge density, which is the backbone of the Kohn-Sham DFT and describes the system completely. The performance of our model is demonstrated by predicting SFE of concentrated alloys with an RMSE and R2 of 6.18 mJ/m2 and 0.87, respectively, validating the accuracy of the proposed approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a Gibbs Energy Minimiser for the MOOSE-based Corrosion Modelling App Yellowjacket and Validation of MSTDB

Nuclear materials are highly complex multiscale, multiphysics systems,and an effective prediction of nuclear reactor performance and safety requires simulation capabilities that tightly couple different physical phenomena. The Idaho National Laboratory’s Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) provides the computational foundation for performing such simulations. With the move towards advanced reactors, such as the Molten Salt Reactor (MSR), that employ high temperature fluids compared to conventional reactors, corrosion has become a problem of great interest. A new application called Yellowjacket is currently under development to directly couple thermodynamic equilibrium and kinetics with phase field models in order to model corrosion in MSRs. As part of Yellowjacket, a Gibbs energy minimiser is being developed to perform thermochemical equilibrium calculations for a range of different materials, which is currently in its infancy. This report describes the further progress towards the development of Yellowjacket Gibbs energy minimiser. Ontario Tech University is developing a new Gibbs energy minimiser for Yellowjacket which is the primary contribution of this work. The aim to develop a thermochemistry solver for the MOOSE framework following the same development philosophy and using the same tools and libraries. A special focus is on performance, documentation and SQA. Furthermore through a scope extension partway through the fiscal year a thorough assessment of the MSTDB-TC v1.3 was performed at Ontario Tech University in the context of continuous improvement and quality assurance. The objective of the work was to have an arm’s length review of the database to give confidence that the database is performing as it was intended while assessing its current state to give recommendations to future developments. This assessment involved two parts: A) a quantitative assessment, and B) a qualitative assessment. Part A involved developing an automated test-suite that would compute values from the database using Thermochimica with comparisons to experimental measurements for validation purposes, which gives confidence to the database’s stakeholders that its functioning properly. Part B involved reviewing all binary systems in the database and making a qualitative assessment with two performance indicators: comprehensiveness and overall confidence. It is important to note that the models in the database are empirical, which is to say that the quality of any model is highly dependent on the experimental data used to inform its development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2017

TA [B] Predicting Microstructure-Creep Resistance Correlation in High Temperature Alloys over Multiple Time Scales

DoE-NETL partnered with Purdue University to predict the creep and associated microstructure evolution of tungsten-based refractory alloys. Researchers use grain boundary (GB) diagrams, a new concept, to establish time-dependent creep resistance and associated microstructure evolution of grain boundaries/intergranular films GB/IGF controlled creep as a function of load, environment, and temperature. The goal was to conduct a systematic study that includes the development of a theoretical framework, multiscale modeling, and experimental validation using W-based body-centered-cubic alloys, doped/alloyed with one or two of the following elements: nickel, palladium, cobalt, iron, and copper—typical refractory alloys. Prior work has already established and validated a basic theory for W-based binary and ternary alloys; the study conducted under this project extended this proven work. Based on interface diagrams phase field models were developed to predict long term microstructural evolution. In order to validate the models nanoindentation creep data was used to elucidate the role played by the interface properties in predicting long term creep strength and microstructure evolution.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Load monitoring and compensation strategies for guided-waves based structural health monitoring using piezoelectric transducers

Accurate interpretation of in-situ piezoelectric sensor signals is a challenging task. This article presents the development of a numerical compensation model based on physical insight to address the influence of structural loads on piezo-sensor signals. The model requires knowledge of in-situ strain and temperature distribution in a structure while acquiring sensor signals. The parameters of the numerical model are obtained using experiments on flat aluminum plate under uniaxial tensile loading. It is shown that the model parameters obtained experimentally can be used for different structures, and sensor layout. Furthermore, the combined effects of load and temperature on the piezo-sensor response are also investigated and it is observed that both of these factors have a coupled effect on the sensor signals. It is proposed to obtain compensation model parameters under a range of operating temperatures to address this coupling effect. An important outcome of this study is a new load monitoring concept using in-situ piezoelectric sensor signals to track changes in the load paths in a structure.

environmental compensation↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical Analysis of CO 2 Exposed Wells to Predict Long Term Leakage through the Development of an Integrated Neural-Genetic Algorithm

The objective of this project is to develop a computerized statistical model with the Integrated Neural-Genetic Algorithm (INGA) for predicting the probability of long-term leak of wells in CO 2 sequestration operations. This object has been accomplished by conducting research in three phases: 1) data mining of CO 2 -explosed wells, 2) INGA computer model development, and 3) evaluation of the predictive performance of the computer model with data from field tests. Data mining was conducted for 510 wells in two CO 2 sequestration projects in the Texas Gulf Coast region. They are the Hasting West field and Oyster Bayou field in the Southern Texas. Missing wellbore integrity data were estimated using an analytical and Finite Element Method (FEM) model. The INGA was first tested for performances of convergence and computing efficiency with the obtained data set of high dimension. It was concluded that the INGA can handle the gathered data set with good accuracy and reasonable computing time after a reduction of dimension with a grouping mechanism. A computerized statistical model with the INGA was then developed based on data pre-processing and grouping. Comprehensive training and testing of the model were carried out to ensure that the model is accurate and efficient enough for predicting the probability of long-term leak of wells in CO 2 sequestration operations. The Cranfield in the southern Mississippi was select as the test site. Observation wells CFU31F2 and CFU31F3 were used for pressure-testing, formation-logging, and cement-sampling. Tools run in the wells include Isolation Scanner, Slim Cement Mapping Tool (SCMT), Cased Hole Formation Dynamics Tester (CHDT), and Mechanical Sidewall Coring Tool (MSCT). Analyses of the obtained data indicate no leak of CO 2 cross the cap zone while it is evident that the well cement sheath was invaded by the CO 2 from the storage zone. This observation is consistent with the result predicted by the INGA model which indicates the well has a CO 2 leak-safe probability of 72%. This comparison implies that the developed INGA model is valid for future use in predicting well leak probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

The effects of microstructure and porosity on the competing fatigue failure mechanisms in powder metallurgy Ti-6Al-4V

In near-net-shape manufacturing methods, such as powder metallurgy, additive manufacturing, and metal injection molding, porosity has historically been viewed as the sole limiting factor for fatigue life. This is because pores tend to act as stress concentrators. However, in this work, a fractographic analysis of Ti-6Al-4V produced through several powder metallurgy techniques has shown that microstructural faceting due to slip can cause fatigue failure, even in the presence of porosity. The likelihood of pore related failure was found to be dependent on microstructure size and morphology. Further, a minimum pore size threshold was found to exist for each microstructure, under which pores will not cause fatigue failure. A simple model was developed to determine this threshold based on the microstructural characteristics of the material. This model was then compared to experimental data and properly predicted the fatigue failure mechanism in over 99% of the samples examined.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2012

Strategic Analysis of Complex Security Scenarios

Many advanced technical tools are available to prevent attacks on national infrastructure. Nevertheless, while traditional analyses of security problems have succeeded in producing good technical solutions, they have often ignored the human factor integral to these problems. Human attackers (who may be individuals or state-level attackers) expend substantial effort to breach security because they have the incentive for doing so. People involved in implementing security follow individual incentives, which need not align with global security concerns; consequently, desired security solutions are often implemented poorly, or not at all. This complex interplay between individual incentives and global (organizational and/or national) goals can be modeled and analyzed using game theoretic techniques. By analyzing not only what is possible, but also what is motivated, a holistic approach to security problems can be developed, informing policy and providing tools to policy makers. We study game theoretic models that unify several current incentive-based approaches to security, and develop simulation-based and mathematical optimization methods for analyzing such models that exploit the high-performance computing capabilities at Sandia. Our first model studies security in interdependent settings, offering a scalable local search heuristic to approximate optimal security decisions in general, and a linear programming approach, coupled with simulations of consequences, to optimally compute security in an important special case. Our second class of models addresses security patrolling problems when an adversary gets to observe the patrol location. We present a general framework, based on stochastic games, for computing optimal security policies in such settings, and present more scalable tools that apply in the important special cases. Our third contribution is a model of security that involves many defenders, but only models non-adaptive attackers (or natural disasters, inadvertent errors, etc). In this model, we demonstrate that the security decisions of many players result in global security configuration that is not very far from optimal, and is much more resilient to environment changes that an optimal solution. This positive effect dissipates, however, when the number of decision makers becomes too large.

Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy↗
DOE OSTI2016

A general-purpose machine learning framework for predicting properties of inorganic materials

A very active area of materials research is to devise methods that use machine learning to automatically extract predictive models from existing materials data. While prior examples have demonstrated successful models for some applications, many more applications exist where machine learning can make a strong impact. To enable faster development of machine-learning-based models for such applications, we have created a framework capable of being applied to a broad range of materials data. Our method works by using a chemically diverse list of attributes, which we demonstrate are suitable for describing a wide variety of properties, and a novel method for partitioning the data set into groups of similar materials to boost the predictive accuracy. In this manuscript, we demonstrate how this new method can be used to predict diverse properties of crystalline and amorphous materials, such as band gap energy and glass-forming ability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Optimization of Energy Recovery From Geothermal Reservoirs With Recurrent Neural Network Predictive Models

Improving the long-term energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs can be accomplished by optimizing field development and management plans. Reliable prediction models, however, are needed to evaluate and optimize the performance of the underlying reservoirs under various operation and development strategies. In traditional frameworks, physics-based simulation models are used to predict the energy production performance of geothermal reservoirs. However, detailed simulation models are not trivial to construct, require a reliable description of the reservoir conditions and properties, and entail high computational complexity. Data-driven predictive models can offer an efficient alternative for use in optimization workflows. This paper presents an optimization framework for net power generation in geothermal reservoirs using a variant of the recurrent neural network (RNN) as a data-driven predictive model. The RNN architecture is developed and trained to replace the simulation model for computationally efficient prediction of the objective function and its gradients with respect to the well control variables. The net power generation performance of the field is optimized by automatically adjusting the mass flow rate of production and injection wells over 12 years, using a gradient-based local search algorithm. Two field-scale examples are presented to investigate the performance of the developed data-driven prediction and optimization framework. Furthermore, the prediction and optimization results from the RNN model are evaluated through comparison with the results obtained by using a numerical simulation model of a real geothermal reservoir.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Efficient and reliable 3D dose quality assurance for IMRT by combining independent dose calculations with measurements

Purpose: Advanced radiotherapy treatments require appropriate quality assurance (QA) to verify 3D dose distributions. Moreover, increase in patient numbers demand efficient QA-methods. In this study, a time efficient method that combines model-based QA and measurement-based QA was developed; i.e., the hybrid-QA. The purpose of this study was to determine the reliability of the model-based QA and to evaluate time efficiency of the hybrid-QA method. Methods: Accuracy of the model-based QA was determined by comparison of COMPASS calculated dose with Monte Carlo calculations for heterogeneous media. In total, 330 intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) treatment plans were evaluated based on the mean gamma index (GI) with criteria of 3%/3mm and classification of PASS (GI {<=} 0.4), EVAL (0.4 < GI > 0.6), and FAIL (GI {>=} 0.6). Agreement between model-based QA and measurement-based QA was determined for 48 treatment plans, and linac stability was verified for 15 months. Finally, time efficiency improvement of the hybrid-QA was quantified for four representative treatment plans. Results: COMPASS calculated dose was in agreement with Monte Carlo dose, with a maximum error of 3.2% in heterogeneous media with high density (2.4 g/cm{sup 3}). Hybrid-QA results for IMRT treatment plans showed an excellent PASS rate of 98% for all cases. Model-based QA was in agreement with measurement-based QA, as shown by a minimal difference in GI of 0.03 {+-} 0.08. Linac stability was high with an average GI of 0.28 {+-} 0.04. The hybrid-QA method resulted in a time efficiency improvement of 15 min per treatment plan QA compared to measurement-based QA. Conclusions: The hybrid-QA method is adequate for efficient and accurate 3D dose verification. It combines time efficiency of model-based QA with reliability of measurement-based QA and is suitable for implementation within any radiotherapy department.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving operational flexibility of integrated energy system with uncertain renewable generations considering thermal inertia of buildings

Insufficient flexibility in system operation caused by traditional "heat-set" operating modes of combined heat and power (CHP) units in winter heating periods is a key issue that limits renewable energy consumption. In order to reduce the curtailment of renewable energy resources through improving the operational flexibility, a novel optimal scheduling model based on chance-constrained programming (CCP), aiming at minimizing the lowest generation cost, is proposed for a small-scale integrated energy system (IES) with CHP units, thermal power units, renewable generations and representative auxiliary equipments. In this model, due to the uncertainties of renewable generations including wind turbines and photovoltaic units, the probabilistic spinning reserves are supplied in the form of chance-constrained; from the perspective of user experience, a heating load model is built with consideration of heat comfort and inertia in buildings. To solve the model, a solution approach based on sequence operation theory (SOT) is developed, where the original CCP-based scheduling model is tackled into a solvable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation by converting a chance constraint into its deterministic equivalence class, and thereby is solved via the CPLEX solver. We report the simulation results on the modified IEEE 30-bus system demonstrate that the presented method manages to improve operational flexibility of the IES with uncertain renewable generations by comprehensively leveraging thermal inertia of buildings and different kinds of auxiliary equipments, which provides a fundamental way for promoting renewable energy consumption.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Virtual storage capability of residential buildings for sustainable smart city via model-based predictive control

This paper evaluates the virtual storage capability of a residential air-conditioning (AC) system by utilizing the building mass as a thermal storage to enable sustainable cities through model-based predictive control (MPC). The control-oriented building model was developed with a grey-box model structure based on the experimental data to predict the indoor air temperature. Based on the model, the operation cost-saving potential of the MPC was investigated in a single house with different comfort levels, electricity prices, and prediction horizons. The cost-saving of the MPC was approximately 10.6 % compared to the conventional control. The MPC was expanded to a residential building cluster considering the peak demand charge. In an hourly shedding and load-up scenario, the performances of the MPC and the heuristic prior-based control (PBC) are promising. When shedding was enforced all day, the peak demand saving of the MPC was 36~38 %, whereas that of the PBC was 25.7 % compared to the baseline. In addition, the monthly electricity bill, including the operation and peak demand cost, was investigated with different demand charge rates and weather conditions. The total saving decreased with a low demand charge rate and hot conditions, and the operation cost saving was compromised with more aggressive demand shedding.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Building a free-energy functional from atomically resolved imaging: Atomic-scale phenomena in La-doped BiFe O 3

Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) has enabled mapping of atomic structures of solids with sub-picometer precision, providing insight to the physics of ferroic phenomena and chemical expansion. Yet, only a subset of information is available, due to projective nature of imaging in the beam direction. Correspondingly, the analysis often relies on the postulated form of macroscopic Landau-Ginzburg energy for the ferroic long-range order parameter, and some predefined relationship between experimentally determined atomic coordinates and the order-parameter field. Here, we propose an approach for exploring the structure of ferroics using reduced order-parameter models constructed based on experimental data only. We develop a four-sublattice model (FSM) for the analytical description of A -cation displacement in (anti)ferroelectric-antiferrodistortive perovskites of ABO 3 type. The model describes the displacements of cation A in four neighboring unit cells and determines the conditions of different structural phases’ appearance and stability in ABO 3 . We show that FSM explains the coexistence of rhombohedral, orthorhombic, and spatially modulated phases, observed by atomic-resolution STEM in La-doped BiFeO 3 . Using this method, we atomically resolve and theoretically model the sublattice asymmetry inherent to the case of the A -site La/Bi cation sublattice in La x Bi 1- x FeO 3 polymorphs. This approach allows the exploration of ferroic behaviors from experimental data only, without additional assumptions on the nature of the order parameter.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2017

Making Roads Safer: Optimizing De-icing Using Snowmelt Rates and Slope Data

More than $ 1.5 B is spent annually on snow-control programs in the United States. With an increase in severe winter storms, many municipalities are encountering difficulty in clearing their roads of ice and snow within their budgetary limits. Currently, roads are classified based on traffic counts, with busier (arterial) roads being treated before less busy (secondary) roads. This approach is problematic because most people live on secondary roads and must travel over these untreated roads before they can reach treated roads. In addition, inefficient distribution of de-icing material can have knock-on environmental impacts with increased material run-off into surrounding areas. To address these concerns, we developed a model for categorizing road vulnerability based on snowmelt rate and slope. We calculated the snowmelt rates in 1-m by 1-m squares of all roads in Knox County, Tennessee, using an empirical equation developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. This equation takes in freely available weather data and incident solar radiation, which we calculated based on LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) data. Using the model results, we propose a more efficient plan: apply de-icers to the steepest roads with the slowest snowmelt, rather than to the busiest roads. Under this approach, we argue that given existing budgetary constraints, more vulnerable roads can be treated with de-icing material and provide for easier mobility for motorists traveling on secondary roads. Our approach provides a more cost-effective, environmentally-conscious, and mobility enhancing application strategy.

Chapin, Fletcher↗