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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Measurement of the Ratios of Branching Fractions R ( D * ) and R ( D 0 )

The ratios of branching fractions $R(D*)$ ≡ $B(\overline{B} → D*τ^-\overline{ν}_μ$)/$B$($\overline{B}$ → $D*μ^-\overline{ν}_μ$) and $R$($D$ 0 ) ≡ $B$($B$ - → $D^0τ^-\overline{v}_τ$)/$B$($B$ - → $D^0μ^-\overline{v}_μ$) are measured, assuming isospin symmetry, using a sample of proton-proton collision data corresponding to 3.0 fb -1 of integrated luminosity recorded by the LHCb experiment during 2011 and 2012. The tau lepton is identified in the decay mode $τ^-$ → $μ^-ν_τ\overline{ν}_μ$. The measured values are $R$($D$*) = 0.281 ± 0.018 ± 0.024 and $R$($D$ 0 ) = 0.441 ± 0.060 ± 0.066, where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. The correlation between these measurements is $ρ$ = -0.43. The results are consistent with the current average of these quantities and are at a combined 1.9 standard deviations from the predictions based on lepton flavor universality in the standard model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Low-metallicity Nova Explosions: A Site for Weak rp -process Nucleosynthesis

Classical novae are common cataclysmic events involving a binary system of a white dwarf and a main-sequence or red giant companion star. In metal-poor environments, these explosions produce ejecta differently from their solar counterparts due to the accretion of subsolar-metallicity material onto the white dwarf. In particular, it has been suggested that the nucleosynthesis flow in such low-metallicity nova explosions extends up to the Cu–Zn region, much beyond the expected endpoint, around Ca, predicted for solar-metallicity classical novae. This behavior resembles a weak rp-process, and such nuclear activity has never been observed in accreting white dwarf binaries with typical accretion flows. In this work, we study the characteristics of the weak rp-process for four nova models with metallicities Z = 2 × 10 −9 , 10 −7 , 2 × 10 −6 , and 2 × 10 −5 , and explore the impact of the nuclear physics uncertainties via a Monte Carlo sensitivity study. We identify nuclear reactions whose uncertainties affect the production of intermediate-mass nuclei under these conditions. These reactions and relevant nuclear quantities are targets for measurements at stable or radioactive beam facilities to reduce their rate uncertainties.

Classical novae↗

Evaluation and Uncertainty of Radioxenon Transport with a Mesoscale Model after the February 2013 Underground Test in North Korea

Abstract The transport of radioxenon released from the February 2013 underground nuclear weapons test in North Korea was analyzed at two receptors—one at the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty site Rn58 in Russia (400 km downwind) and a second at Rn38 in Japan (1000 km downwind). Transport was modeled with two ensembles of mesoscale simulations, one generated with varying initial and lateral boundary conditions taken from the Global Forecasting System uncertainty ensemble, and a second created from different parameterizations and surface conditions. The wind variability was similar for the two ensembles and consistent with observations at 925 mb (1 mb = 1 hPa) but not at the surface. Biases in calculated surface winds and the radioxenon concentration in the ensembles were attributed mainly to poor simulation of the sea breeze at both locations and mountain lee affects at Rn38 in Japan. These wind regimes affected the timing of the surface radioxenon plume at Rn58 and its duration at Rn38. Surface wind variability induced by terrain and land–sea contrast (the sea breeze) also had a significant effect on the surface winds and plume dynamics, including blocking of flow approaching elevated terrain near Vladivostok and the west side of Japan. Increased plume uncertainty was seen at night because of surface wind variability. Measured surface chemical variability was larger than found in the first European Tracer Experiment in central Europe. The study found that horizontal model resolution contributes to uncertainty but not as much as vertical resolution, boundary layer parameterizations, and assimilation of surface meteorological data near the receptor.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Single differential $\nu_\mu$ charged-current cross section with the MicroBooNE detector using the Cosmic Ray Tagger

We perform a single differential $\nu_\mu$ charged current (CC) inclusive cross section measurement in MicroBooNE using improved detector response simulation, reconstruction, and with improved cosmic ray-induced background rejection using an external Cosmic Ray Tagger (CRT). The measurement uses data recorded from Fermilab’s Booster Neutrino Beamline (BNB) between December 2017 and July 2018, corresponding to an integrated protons on target of 7.6e18). We present the results in a similar manner as our previous $\nu_\mu$ charged current (CC) inclusive cross section to allow for direct comparison. The direct comparison highlights two improvements in this measurement over the previous measurement: firstly, the drastically reduced cosmic contamination achieved when using the CRT, and secondly the significantly improved detector modeling, with associated reduced systematic uncertainties. It is shown in this analysis that the outcome is an improved measurement (σ = 0.800 ± 0.030 (stat) ± 0.101 (sys) · 10 -38 cm 2 ) with much smaller uncertainties but a result consistent with that of the previous analysis (σ previous = 0.693 ± 0.010 ± 0.165 · 10 -38 cm 2 ).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Impact of Thermonuclear Reaction Rate Uncertainties on the Identification of Presolar Grains from Classical Novae

Approximately 30%–40% of classical novae generate dust between 20 and 100 days following the eruption. However, there has yet to be a definitive identification of presolar stardust grains originating from classical novae. While multiple studies have suggested a nova origin for specific grains, aligning simultaneously all measured isotopic ratios of a specific grain with those predicted from simulations remains challenging. Using Monte Carlo simulations, this work investigates how uncertainties in thermonuclear reaction rates influence the isotopic ratios predicted in simulations of classical novae, specifically impacting the identification of presolar grains. In particular, we address two questions: (i) What is the impact of uncertainties in reaction rates on the range of isotopic ratios predicted by classical nova simulations? (ii) Which reaction rate uncertainties most significantly influence the predicted abundance ratios in presolar grains? Our results show that current reaction rate uncertainties affect the isotopic ratios of 12 C/ 13 C, 14 N/ 15 N, 16 O/ 17 O, 16 O/ 18 O, 24 Mg/ 25 Mg, 24 Mg/ 26 Mg, 26 Al/ 27 Al, and 28 Si/ 29 Si by less than 20% in either carbon–oxygen or oxygen–neon (ONe) novae, especially when considering the mixing of matter throughout the entire envelope. However, the isotopic ratios of 28 Si/ 30 Si, 32 S/ 33 S, and 32 S/ 34 S in ONe novae are exceptions: their variability greatly exceeds a factor of 2 due to the uncertainties in the reaction rates of 30 P(p,γ) 31 S, 33 S(p,γ) 34 Cl, and 34 S(p,γ) 35 Cl, respectively. These results highlight the significant influence of specific reaction rates on the predicted abundance ratios and underscore the necessity for accurate nuclear measurements to reduce these uncertainties.

Classical novae↗

Gap-filling eddy covariance methane fluxes: Comparison of machine learning model predictions and uncertainties at FLUXNET-CH4 wetlands

Time series of methane fluxes measured by eddy-covariance require gap-filling to estimate annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for methane, with regards both to the best model algorithms and predictors. In this study, we address the need for standardization by synthesizing results of gap-filling methods applied at 17 wetland sites spanning boreal to tropical regions including all major wetlands classes and two rice paddies. We introduce new procedures for: 1) creating realistic artificial gap scenarios, 2) training and evaluating gap-filling models without overstating performance, and 3) predicting half-hourly methane fluxes and annual emissions with robust uncertainty estimates. We tested a conventional method (marginal distribution sampling) and four machine learning algorithms - penalized linear regression, artificial neural networks, random forests, and boosted decision trees - and four predictor sets, including temporal, meteorological, ecosystem carbon and energy flux, and soil predictors. We find that the conventional method can achieve similar median performance to the machine learning models but is worse than the best machine learning models and relatively insensitive to predictor choices. Of the machine learning models, decision tree algorithms performed the best in cross-validation experiments, even with a baseline predictor set, and artificial neural networks showed comparable performance when using all predictors. Soil temperature was frequently the most important predictor whilst water table depth was important at sites with substantial water table fluctuations, highlighting the value of data on soil conditions. Raw gap-filling uncertainties from the machine learning models were underestimated and we propose a method to calibrate uncertainties to observations. Finally, we gap-fill and provide summary evaluation metrics for all 81 sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 community dataset and publicly release the python code for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty estimation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Conditional Karhunen-Loève expansion for uncertainty quantification and active learning in partial differential equation models

We use a conditional Karhunen-Lo` eve (KL) model to quantify and reduce uncertainty in a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) problem with partially-known space-dependent coefficient, Y (x). We assume that a small number of Y (x) measurements are available and model Y (x) with a KL expansion. We achieve reduction in uncertainty by conditioning the KL expansion coefficients on measurements. We consider two approaches for conditioning the KL expansion: In Approach 1, we condition the KL model first and then truncate it. In Approach 2, we first truncate the KL expansion and then condition it. We employ the conditional KL expansion together with Monte Carlo and sparse grid collocation methods to compute the moments of the solution of the SPDE problem. Uncertainty of the problem is further reduced by adaptively selecting additional observation locations using two active learning methods. Method 1 minimizes the variance of the PDE coefficient, while Method 2 minimizes the variance of the solution of the PDE. We demonstrate that conditioning leads to dimension reduction of the KL representation of Y (x). For a linear diffusion SPDE with uncertain log-normal coefficient, we show that Approach 1 provides a more accurate approximation of the conditional log-normal coefficient and solution of the SPDE than Approach 2 for the same number of random dimensions in a conditional KL expansion. Furthermore, Approach 2 provides a good estimate for the number of terms of the truncated KL expansion of the conditional field of Approach 1. Finally, we demonstrate that active learning based on Method 2 is more efficient for uncertainty reduction in the SPDE’s states (i.e., it leads to a larger reduction of the variance) than active learning using Method 2.

Conditioned Karhunen-Lo` eve expanion, machine lea↗

Status Update on the High Precision Isotopic Measurements on High Burnup LWR Fuel in 2020

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is currently investigating the feasibility of directly disposing dual-purpose (storage and transportation) canisters (DPCs) in a spent nuclear fuel (SNF) repository. Criticality during the repository performance period (10,000 years or more) is one of the major concerns related to direct disposal of DPCs, specifically as the system undergoes degradation in the repository environment and timeframe. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is developing an as-loaded criticality analysis methodology using full (actinides + fission products) burnup credit that exploits the inherent criticality margin associated with actual canister-specific loading configuration. Burnup credit criticality analysis requires validation of the depletion/decay codes used to generate the burned isotopic inventory of an assembly by comparing the code-predicted inventory with experimentally determined isotopic data. Currently, isotopic measurement data for boiling water reactors (BWR) SNF are limited, and additional measurements will be highly beneficial for BWR burnup credit analysis, which is essential to demonstrate disposability of BWR DPCs. Moreover, new pressurized water reactor (PWR) samples of isotopic measurements will expand the PWR sample population and consequently will greatly improve sample statistics. In turn, this will reduce uncertainty in the computational determination of the isotopic composition of commercial SNF and eliminate additional penalties currently used for lack of data. As part of the isotopic analysis task, eight diverse, high burnup (HBU) samples from several PWR rods are being dissolved and isotopically analyzed to provide high-quality measurement data for PWR SNF to reducing the uncertainties associated with PWR isotopic depletion validation. The isotopics of interest focus on nuclides important to burnup credit, shielding, and decay heat in PWR SNF. Additionally, eight high burnup BWR fuel samples from the Limerick nuclear power plant have been identified for measurement to support reducing uncertainties associated with BWR isotopic depletion validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Advanced Graphite Creep Uncertainty Analysis

Radiation damage estimation is an important component of the post irradiation analysis of the Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) experiment. It depends primarily on the fast fluence, which is determined using well established methods of spectral adjustment. These are based on best estimates from models such as Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP), input cross-sections, and measured activities from flux wires in the experiment. Each of these parameters can propagate uncertainties which will affect the uncertainty in the calculated dose levels for AGC, or any experiment irradiated within a reactor. While the methods of propagating uncertainty are well-established, the final uncertainty estimates they provide are only as good as the estimates of uncertainty in the inputs on which they are based. The purpose of this work is to outline some deficiencies in the ways these input uncertainties are presently estimated, and to outline a methodology by which they can be improved. The fast fluence and radiation damage received by graphite specimens irradiated in the Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) experiments is presently estimated using spectral adjustment methods that are based on both flux wire activity measurements, and MCNP model predictions. This work describes an ongoing effort to quantify and propagate uncertainties in inputs to the spectral adjustment process, and thereby quantify the resultant error in radiation damage (dpa) estimates. The effort is multi-faceted, and we consider the impacts of both the set of flux wires selected, and the counting process. An expanded set of flux wires is identified that provides a more comprehensive data set on the fast spectrum. To address the counting process itself, a series of round-robin measurements in several reactor metrology laboratories across the Department of Energy (DOE) complex and nuclear industry are being undertaken to refine the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards for flux wire measurements. To address the contribution of uncertainty in the MCNP model predictions, an uncertainty quantification (UQ) tool has been developed that statistically samples the model input parameters, runs a series of cases, and assimilates the results to provide an overall uncertainty. The impact of the MCNP UQ tool results is demonstrated by re-analyzing previous AGC flux wire and irradiation data. While the expanded flux wire set obviously cannot be added to these experiments retroactively, plans for future graphite irradiations are outlined.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

High-resolution modeling of indoor radon exposure with uncertainty quantification in Utah

Indoor radon accounts for 37% of population-level exposure to ionizing radiation in the United States. However, radon metrics are typically reported at coarse spatial scales, potentially obscuring meaningful local variation. We developed a high-resolution modeling framework to estimate indoor radon concentrations across Utah while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty. A total of 19,497 residential radon measurements collected between 2006 and 2017 were combined with environmental and housing characteristics and analyzed using a geospatial neural network that accommodates spatial dependence and nonlinear associations. Predictions were generated on a uniform hexagonal grid at 0.73 km2 resolution (H3 level 8). Out-of-sample predictions aggregated to the H3 level 8 grid showed good agreement with observed concentrations (Pearson r=0.64), while household-level predictions exhibited more moderate agreement (r=0.45). The model produced well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, with 24.1% of held-out observations exceeding the predicted 75th-percentile threshold. Maps of predicted radon concentrations and the probability of exceeding the U.S. EPA action level of 148 Bq/m3 (4 pCi/L) revealed substantial fine-scale spatial heterogeneity that was not apparent in conventional coarse-resolution summaries, with greater local variability observed in densely monitored urban counties than in sparsely sampled regions. High-resolution radon models that explicitly quantify uncertainty provide a useful framework for characterizing the spatial distribution of indoor radon and identifying areas of elevated exceedance risk. These findings highlight the value of fine-scale monitoring data and uncertainty-aware modeling approaches for radon exposure assessment, environmental risk characterization, and radon-related health research.

Wu, Yunhan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178842994)↗

Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay of 136 Xe and Related Nuclear Structure Studies (Final Scientific Report)

The search for neutrinoless double-beta decay (0nbb) explores new physics by directly probing the unknown mass scale and possible Majorana nature of the neutrino. The nEXO experiment, one of the two leading proposed ton-scale projects in the US, has a projected sensitivity to the 136 Xe 0nbb half-life of 10 28 years. The interpretation of possible signals in this next generation of experiments would be complicated by significant variations in theoretical calculations of the nuclear matrix elements (NMEs) of the decay, and nuclear structure measurements testing those theories can help address that uncertainty. We have 136 Xe(p,n) 136 Cs reaction at TUNL to deduce the level-scheme of states in 136 Cs through which the lowest-lying 1+ state decays. We find that over 99% of such decays will proceed through at least one isomeric state with a lifetime of order 100ns, which would enable large xenon detectors to employ a delayed-coincidence technique to search for charge-exchange processes including solar neutrino interactions. We have carried out measurements at TUNL of the 134 Xe( 3 He,n) 136 Ba and 136 Xe( 3 He,n) 138 Ba reactions to low-lying 0 + states in the residuals to probe the BCS assumption for QRPA NME calculations for the initial and final nuclei in 136 Xe 0nbb. While the analyses of these reactions is not yet complete and is ongoing, our initial results indicate tension with the BCS assumption. We have assembled a thermosyphon cooling R&D system for nEXO which has demonstrated up to 500 W of cooling in vacuum. We have developed a simple thermosyphon cooling simulation for nEXO and planned laboratory tests with the R&D system to benchmark it.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Systematic Bayesian evaluation of resonance parameters in 19 Ne for the 15 O ⁡(𝛼, 𝛾)⁢ 19 Ne and 18 F ⁡(𝑝, 𝛼)⁢ 15 O reactions

Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation of the nuclear structure properties of 19 Ne using a novel and rigorous Bayesian statistical framework. Precise characterization of 19 Ne resonance parameters is critical for accurately determining reaction rates of the astrophysically significant 15 O ⁡(𝛼, 𝛾)⁢ 19 Ne and 18 F ⁡(𝑝, 𝛼)⁢ 15 O reactions, which govern breakout from the hot CNO cycle in x-ray bursts and influence 𝛾-ray emission in novae, respectively. By reconstructing likelihood functions from published experimental data—including asymmetric uncertainties and upper or lower limits—we derive posterior distributions for resonance energies, decay widths, and branching ratios. Our Bayesian approach systematically incorporates previously reported discrepancies among measurements, providing a statistically robust and consistent treatment of these uncertainties. The evaluated resonance parameters and associated uncertainties provide crucial input for stellar nucleosynthesis modeling, contributing to a refined understanding of explosive astrophysical phenomena.

Kim, Sohyun H. [Sungkyunkwan Univ., Suwon (Republi↗

Development of a Discrepancy Checker for the Digital Twin in a Supervisory Control System for a Thermal Energy Delivery System

Defined as a virtual representation of a physical object, process, or service, and used to support real-world decision-making, a digital twin (DT) can be utilized to combine classical and novel frameworks in sensors, state predictions, and multi-input/multi-output systems, and to enable optimal autonomous operations. However, a DT’s usefulness largely depends on its ability to adequately mirror the state of its physical counterpart, and this adequacy should be reflected by the level of uncertainty in the underlying simulation models when estimating and predicting quantities of interest (QOIs). Moreover, simulation models in a DT may involve multiple fidelities of representations—ranging from physics-based models to data-driven ones—but classical uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods struggle to handle numerous uncertainty sources, nor are they designed for real-time applications. This work presents a UQ-based discrepancy checking and diagnosis tool for a DT-based supervisory control system applied to a thermal energy delivery system (TEDS) at Idaho National Laboratory. The discrepancy checker was developed using metadata from an automated DT development process, and these metadata included different combinations of physical model forms and model parameters, training data and hyperparameters for surrogate models, and design parameters for supervisory control systems. Next, correlations between the uncertainty results and the metadata were established and then applied to the DT operations. The discrepancy checker evaluates the discrepancies between model predictions from virtual and sensor measurements and backtraces them to the corresponding major sources of uncertainty. The discrepancy checker showed reasonable performance in detecting discrepancies and diagnosing sources of uncertainty in testing scenarios.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Uncertainty-based weighted least squares density integration for background-oriented schlieren

We propose an improved density integration methodology for Background-Oriented Schlieren (BOS) measurements that overcomes the noise sensitivity of the commonly used Poisson solver. Here, the method employs a weighted least-squares (WLS) optimization of the 2D integration of the density gradient field by solving an over-determined system of equations. Weights are assigned to the grid points based on density gradient uncertainties to ensure that a less reliable measurement point has less effect on the integration procedure. Synthetic image analysis with a Gaussian density field shows that WLS constrains the propagation of random error and reduces it by 80% in comparison to Poisson for the highest noise level. Using WLS with experimental BOS measurements of flow induced by a spark plasma discharge shows a 30% reduction in density uncertainty in comparison to Poisson, thereby increasing the overall precision of the BOS density measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Precise measurement of nuclear interaction cross sections towards neutron-skin determination with R 3 B

The R 3 B (Reactions with Relativistic Radioactive Beams) experiment as a major instrument of the NUSTAR collaboration for the research facility FAIR in Darmstadt is designed for kinematically complete studies of reactions with high-energy radioactive beams. Part of the broad physics program of R 3 B is to constrain the asymmetry term in the nuclear equation-of-state and hence improve the description of highly asymmetric nuclear matter (e.g., in neutron stars). For a precise determination of the neutron-skin thickness – an observable which is directly correlated with the symmetry energy in theoretical calculations – by measuring absolute fragmentation cross sections, it is essential to quantify the uncertainty and challenge the reaction model under stable conditions. During the successful FAIR Phase-0 campaign of R 3 B, we precisely measured the energy dependence of total interaction cross sections in 12 C + 12 C collisions, for a direct comparison with calculations based on the eikonal reaction theory.

Ponnath, L. (ORCID:0000000286742624)↗

Spot size measurement of a deuterium–tritium dense plasma focus using neutron radiography

Neutron radiography is a technique uniquely suited to applications in nuclear diagnostics, non-destructive testing, and subcritical experiments. The spatial resolution of neutron radiographs is degraded by optical blur in the imaging system and the neutron source size, where the ideal source is point-like to optimize the point-spread function. A potential neutron source for radiography is the dense plasma focus (DPF), a coaxial Z-pinch that produces thermonuclear and beam-target neutrons. To assess if the source size is suitable for radiography, a neutron imaging system was used to measure the source size of the 4 MA Sodium DPF at the Nevada National Security Site operating with deuterium–tritium gas-fill. The source size was measured using the edge-spread function of tungsten objects, each having a rolled (convex) edge. The spot size was found to be 7–12 mm full-width at half-max (FWHM) assuming a Gaussian source, though comparison is presented for Lorentzian and Bennett distributions. The average FWHM was found to be 8.6 ± 1.2 mm vertically and 10.8 ± 1.2 mm horizontally with respect to the image plane, averaging over varied edges and alignments. The results were sensitive to source alignment and edge metrology, which introduced notable uncertainties. These results are consistent with separate experimental measurements as well as magnetohydrodynamics simulations of this DPF, which suggest that neutron production can originate from pinches ∼5–7 mm off-axis. These results suggest that the DPF should be used for radiography at low magnification (M < 1) where spot size does not dominate spatial blur.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Structure of the Neutron with Quasi-Elastic Scattering from 3H and 3HE

The magnetic form factor characterizes the magnetic distribution inside the neutron and knowledge of it is essential for the understanding of the neutron structure. The E12-11-112 experiment aimed to measure the neutron magnetic form factor (GnM) from the 3H/3He cross sections ratio, in the Q2 range of 0.5 - 3 GeV2. Quasi-elastic (QE) electron scattering was used to probe nucleons on the nucleus of the mirror 3H and 3He nuclei, in Hall A at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab). The use of the mirror nuclei ratio is a novel extraction that cancels several systematic uncertainties from the cross section effects in the ratio. The motivation of this measurement is the disagreement between the precision measurements among the Q2 range of 0.5 - 1 GeV2 in the worldwide data. A total of five Q2 points were taken between this region and four more were taken with a Q2>1 GeV2 in order to estimate the accuracy of the method. Ideally, the 3H/3He ratio should be enough to calculate the magnetic form factor, but due to nuclear effects, there will be a correction of up to 8 % depending on the Q2 value that has to be evaluated before the form factor extraction. The cross sections were measured with a point-to-point uncertainty of 3 - 4.5 %, and the ratios were also evaluated with an uncertainty of 1.5 - 3 %. Therefore, the preliminary studies of the Gn M are summarized, and from the present analysis, it can be concluded that the precision of the measurement in the region of interest will be of the order of 1.5%.

Santiesteban, Sandra↗