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The manufacturing of composites typically produces residual stresses that can significantly affect the final shape of the structure. The process of automated fiber placement (AFP) has become a prominent manufacturing technique in developing layups with tailored, variable stiffness morphology. The steered patterns of fiber tows with and without overlaps produce residual deformations that are distinctive from traditional layups. Digital image correlation was used to measure the AFP lamina coefficients of thermal expansion, which were incorporated into finite element analyses (FEA) to model the cooling phase of the cure cycle. The effects of nonlinear analysis and temperature-dependent lamina properties calculated using self-consistent field micromechanics, on the resulting residual deformation of shells, were also modeled. The predicted residual deformation was analyzed by considering out-of-roundness in cylindrical shells and compared to the experimental results. The shell FEA results were well-correlated with the overall deformed shape of the AFP cylinder with overlaps, while the shell FEA model of the AFP cylinder without overlaps did not show as good of qualitative match of the deformation pattern. Analytical correlation with measured results were insensitive to material softening at elevated temperatures, geometric nonlinearities, and variations in measured lamina thermal properties. To improve the accuracy of the residual deformation analysis, these results suggest that the thermo-chemical shrinkages preceding the cooldown should be considered, as well as possible variations in ply level microstructure due to the presence of the embedded fiber tow gaps and overlaps.