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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Object-Oriented MDAO Tool with Aeroservoelastic Model Tuning Capability

An object-oriented multi-disciplinary analysis and optimization (MDAO) tool has been developed at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center to automate the design and analysis process and leverage existing commercial as well as in-house codes to enable true multidisciplinary optimization in the preliminary design stage of subsonic, transonic, supersonic and hypersonic aircraft. Once the structural analysis discipline is finalized and integrated completely into the MDAO process, other disciplines such as aerodynamics and flight controls will be integrated as well. Simple and efficient model tuning capabilities based on optimization problem are successfully integrated with the MDAO tool. More synchronized all phases of experimental testing (ground and flight), analytical model updating, high-fidelity simulations for model validation, and integrated design may result in reduction of uncertainties in the aeroservoelastic model and increase the flight safety.

Pak, Chan-gi↗

Improved Modelling of SEP Event Onset Within the WSA–Enlil–SEPMOD Framework

Multi-spacecraft observations of solar energetic particle (SEP) events not only enable a deeper understanding and development of particle acceleration and transport theories but also provide important constraints for model validation efforts. However, because of computational limitations, a given physics-based SEP model is usually best suited to capture a particular phase of an SEP event, rather than its whole development from onset through decay. For example, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the heliosphere often incorporate solar transients only at the outer boundary of their so-called coronal domain – usually set at a heliocentric distance of 20–30 R⊙. This means that particle acceleration at coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shocks is also computed from this boundary onwards, leading to simulated SEP event onsets that can be many hours later than observed, since shock waves can form much lower in the solar corona. In this work, we aim to improve the modelled onset of SEP events by inserting a “fixed source” of particle injection at the outer boundary of the coronal domain of the coupled WSA–Enlil 3D MHD model of the heliosphere. The SEP model that we employ for this effort is Solar Energetic Particle MODel (SEPMOD), a physics-based test-particle code based on a field line tracer and adiabatic invariant conservation. We apply our initial tests and results of SEPMOD’s fixed-source option to the 2021 October 9 SEP event, which was detected at five well-separated locations in the inner heliosphere – Parker Solar Probe, STEREO-A, Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, and near-Earth spacecraft.

Solar eruptions↗

Volcanic Plume Heights on Mars: Limits of Validity for Convective Models

Previous studies have overestimated volcanic plume heights on Mars. In this work, we demonstrate that volcanic plume rise models, as currently formulated, have only limited validity in any environment. These limits are easily violated in the current Mars environment and may also be violated for terrestrial and early Mars conditions. We indicate some of the shortcomings of the model with emphasis on the limited applicability to current Mars conditions. Specifically, basic model assumptions are violated when (1) vertical velocities exceed the speed of sound, (2) radial expansion rates exceed the speed of sound, (3) radial expansion rates approach or exceed the vertical velocity, or (4) plume radius grossly exceeds plume height. All of these criteria are violated for the typical Mars example given here. Solutions imply that the convective rise, model is only valid to a height of approximately 10 kilometers. The reason for the model breakdown is hat the current Mars atmosphere is not of sufficient density to satisfy the conservation equations. It is likely that diffusion and other effects governed by higher-order differential equations are important within the first few kilometers of rise. When the same criteria are applied to eruptions into a higher-density early Mars atmosphere, we find that eruption rates higher than 1.4 x 10(exp 9) kilograms per second also violate model assumptions. This implies a maximum extent of approximately 65 kilometers for convective plumes on early Mars. The estimated plume heights for both current and early Mars are significantly lower than those previously predicted in the literature. Therefore, global-scale distribution of ash seems implausible.

Glaze, Lori S.↗

RELAP5-3D validation studies based on the High Temperature Test facility

In the spring and summer of 2019, experiments were conducted at the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) that form the basis of an upcoming high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) thermal hydraulics (T/H) benchmark. HTTF is an integral effects test facility for HTGR T/H modeling validation. This paper presents RELAP5-3D models of two of those experiments: PG-27, a pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC); and PG-29, a depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC). These models used the RELAP5-3D model of HTTF originally developed by Paul Bayless as a starting point. The sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification code, RAVEN was used to perform calibration studies for the steady-state portion of PG-27. Here we developed four PG-27 calibrations based on steady-state conditions. These calibrations all used an effective thermal conductivity equal to 36 % of the measured thermal conductivity, but they differed with respect to the frictional pressure drops and radial conduction models. These models all captured the trends in steady-state temperature distributions and transient temperature behavior well. All four calibrations show room for improvement in predicting the transient temperature rise. The smallest error in temperature rise during the transient was a 21 % underprediction, and the largest was a 48 % underprediction. The errors in transient temperature rise are largely a result of a mismatch in power density between the RELAP5-3D model and the experiment due to the location of active heater rods along the boundary between heat structures in the model. The best of these calibrations was applied to PG-29 to model the DCC. Once again, temperatures during the transient were underpredicted but trends in temperature were captured. The RELAP5-3D model captured trends in the data but could not reproduce measured temperatures exactly. This result is not attributed to deficiencies in the experimental data or to RELAP5–3D itself. Rather, this result likely arises due to the some of the assumptions and decisions made when the RELAP5-3D model was first developed, prior to the execution of HTTF experiments. An agreement in prediction of temperature trends but challenges reproducing HTTF temperatures within measurement uncertainty is consistent with previous analyses of HTTF in the literature. Future RELAP5-3D validation activities centered around HTTF may be able to provide greater insight into the code’s capabilities for HTGR modeling with a more finely nodalized model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Ductile Tearing of Thin Aluminum Plates Under Blast Loading: Predictions with Fully Coupled Models and Biaxial Material Response Characterization

The work presented in this report concerns the response and failure of thin 2024- T3 aluminum alloy circular plates to a blast load produced by the detonation of a nearby spherical charge. The plates were fully clamped around the circumference and the explosive charge was located centrally with respect to the plate. The principal objective was to conduct a numerical model validation study by comparing the results of predictions to experimental measurements of plate deformation and failure for charges with masses in the vicinity of the threshold between no tearing and tearing of the plates. Stereo digital image correlation data was acquired for all tests to measure the deflection and strains in the plates. The size of the virtual strain gage in the measurements, however, was relatively large, so the strain measurements have to be interpreted accordingly as lower bounds of the actual strains in the plate and of the severity of the strain gradients. A fully coupled interaction model between the blast and the deflection of the structure was considered. The results of the validation exercise indicated that the model predicted the deflection of the plates reasonably accurately as well as the distribution of strain on the plate. The estimation of the threshold charge based on a critical value of equivalent plastic strain measured in a bulge test, however, was not accurate. This in spite of efforts to determine the failure strain of the aluminum sheet under biaxial stress conditions. Further work is needed to be able to predict plate tearing with some degree of confidence. Given the current technology, at least one test under the actual blast conditions where the plate tears is needed to calibrate the value of equivalent plastic strain when failure occurs in the numerical model. Once that has been determined, the question of the explosive mass value at the threshold could be addressed with more confidence.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Use of the Ames Check Standard Model for the Validation of Wall Interference Corrections

The new check standard model of the NASA Ames 11-ft Transonic Wind Tunnel was chosen for a future validation of the facility's wall interference correction system. The chosen validation approach takes advantage of the fact that test conditions experienced by a large model in the slotted part of the tunnel's test section will change significantly if a subset of the slots is temporarily sealed. Therefore, the model's aerodynamic coefficients have to be recorded, corrected, and compared for two different test section configurations in order to perform the validation. Test section configurations with highly accurate Mach number and dynamic pressure calibrations were selected for the validation. First, the model is tested with all test section slots in open configuration while keeping the model's center of rotation on the tunnel centerline. In the next step, slots on the test section floor are sealed and the model is moved to a new center of rotation that is 33 inches below the tunnel centerline. Then, the original angle of attack sweeps are repeated. Afterwards, wall interference corrections are applied to both test data sets and response surface models of the resulting aerodynamic coefficients in interference-free flow are generated. Finally, the response surface models are used to predict the aerodynamic coefficients for a family of angles of attack while keeping dynamic pressure, Mach number, and Reynolds number constant. The validation is considered successful if the corrected aerodynamic coefficients obtained from the related response surface model pair show good agreement. Residual differences between the corrected coefficient sets will be analyzed as well because they are an indicator of the overall accuracy of the facility's wall interference correction process.

wind tunnel wall interferenc↗

Thermal Desktop Modeling of 2016 CRYOTE-2 Tank Chill and Fill Testing

The storing and transfer of cryogenic propellants is an enabling technology for NASA and industry as civilization moves to expand future missions into low Earth orbit and beyond. Several ground propellant transfer tests have been conducted in past decades examining various tank chilldown and fill methods. Creating accurate models using these historical datasets is a vital step toward developing appropriate modeling tools to form pre-test predictions for subsequent ground and flight propellant transfers. This paper presents model validation of Thermal Desktop using data from the 2016 CRYOTE-2 liquid nitrogen transfer experiments whose purpose was to demonstrate the chill and fill process in a spherical receiver tank. Tank pressure, fill level, and wall temperature were all modeled and compared with 8 test cases using two modeling methods, Mass Controlled, and Pressure Controlled. This test series is the hardest Thermal Desktop tank chill and fill validation case to-date, yet the model was able to accurately predict each of these metrics for the 2016 tests within 28%, 10%, 20% respectively, for pressure, fill level, and wall temperature using the Mass Controlled model, and 29%, 79%, and 12%, respectively for the Pressure Controlled model.

Cryogenic Tank Chilldown↗

SAR terrain classifier and mapper of biophysical attributes

In preparation for the launch of SIR-C/X-SAR and design studies for future orbital SAR, a program has made considerable progress in the development of an SAR terrain classifier and algorithms for quantification of biophysical attributes. The goal of this program is to produce a generalized software package for terrain classification and estimation of biophysical attributes and to make this package available to the larger scientific community. The basic elements of the SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) terrain classifier are outlined. An SAR image is calibrated with respect to known system and processor gains and external targets (if available). A Level 1 classifier operates on the data to differentiate: urban features, surfaces and tall and short vegetation. Level 2 classifiers further subdivide these classes on the basis of structure. Finally, biophysical and geophysical inversions are applied to each class to estimate attributes of interest. The process used to develop the classifiers and inversions is shown. Radar scattering models developed from theory and from empirical data obtained by truck-mounted polarimeters and the JPL AirSAR are validated. The validated models are used in sensitivity studies to understand the roles of various scattering sources (i.e., surface trunk, branches, etc.) in determining net backscatter. Model simulations of sigma (sup o) as functions of the wave parameters (lambda, polarization and angle of incidence) and the geophysical and biophysical attributes are used to develop robust classifiers. The classifiers are validated using available AirSAR data sets. Specific estimators are developed for each class on the basis of the scattering models and empirical data sets. The candidate algorithms are tested with the AirSAR data sets. The attributes of interest include: total above ground biomass, woody biomass, soil moisture and soil roughness.

Ulaby, Fawwaz T.↗

On the competition between mixing rate and uniformity in a coaxial hydrodynamic focusing mixer

Fast microfluidic mixers for use with line-of-sight integrating detection schemes pose unique challenges. Such detectors typically cannot discriminate signal from slow moving (e.g. near internal walls) and fast-moving portions of the fluid stream. This convolves reaction rate dynamics with fluid flow residence time dynamics. Further, the small cross sections of typical three-dimensional hydrodynamic focusing devices lead to lower detection signals. The current study focuses on achieving both small time scales of mixing and homogenous residence times. This is achieved by injecting sample through a center capillary and hydrodynamically focusing using a sheath flow within a tapered second capillary. The current design also features a third, larger coaxial capillary. The mixed stream flows into the large cross-section of this third capillary to decelerate and expand the stream by up to 14-fold to improve line-of-sight signal strength of reaction products. Hydrodynamic focusing, mixing, and expansion are studied using analytical and numerical models and also studied experimentally using a fluorescein-iodide quenching reaction. The experimentally validated models are used to explore trade-offs between mixing rate and uniformity. For the first time, this work presents detailed analysis of the Lagrangian time history of species transport during mixing inside coaxial capillaries to measure mixing nonuniformity. The mixing region enables order 100 μs mixing times and residence time widths of the same order (140 μs).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Insights into the mechanism of X-ray-induced disulfide-bond cleavage in lysozyme crystals based on EPR, optical absorption and X-ray diffraction studies

Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) and online UV–visible absorption microspectrophotometry with X-ray crystallography have been used in a complementary manner to follow X-ray-induced disulfide-bond cleavage, to confirm a multi-track radiation-damage process and to develop a model of that process. Electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) and online UV–visible absorption microspectrophotometry with X-ray crystallography have been used in a complementary manner to follow X-ray-induced disulfide-bond cleavage. Online UV–visible spectroscopy showed that upon X-irradiation, disulfide radicalization appeared to saturate at an absorbed dose of approximately 0.5–0.8 MGy, in contrast to the saturating dose of ∼0.2 MGy observed using EPR at much lower dose rates. The observations suggest that a multi-track model involving product formation owing to the interaction of two separate tracks is a valid model for radiation damage in protein crystals. The saturation levels are remarkably consistent given the widely different experimental parameters and the range of total absorbed doses studied. The results indicate that even at the lowest doses used for structural investigations disulfide bonds are already radicalized. Multi-track considerations offer the first step in a comprehensive model of radiation damage that could potentially lead to a combined computational and experimental approach to identifying when damage is likely to be present, to quantitate it and to provide the ability to recover the native unperturbed structure.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

LiCaAIF 6 :Eu Scintillator Family Neutron Detection (Final Report)

The proposed work was based on a learning cycle format with three parts, (1) Modeling, (2) Growth, (3) Characterization, to investigate the family of colquiriite scintillators and various activating dopants as efficiently and effectively as possible. Under this research methodology, each of these functions would feed information to the next. Each iteration around the cycle was expected to improve results and provide clues to the best path forward for the next iteration. However, it was realized that this research model is not robust and unable to handle setbacks at any one of the functions. Unfortunately, the project suffered setbacks in the “Growth” function and progress in the other functions was severely restricted. Of course, numerous alternative paths were trialed within the growth function to enable progress, but these required addition time and resources which in the end only provided limited progress. After reviewing the project as a whole, it can be concluded that the research model used was indeed too fragile for this sort of research and a more robust plan should be utilized in the future. As a whole though, significant progress was made toward understanding the barriers toward realizing the benefits of this family of scintillators through modeling. Various paths forward were postulated, but limited growth and synthesis capabilities prevented experimental validation. Experimentally, it was found that the synthesis and growth of colquiriite scintillators requires special considerations for its thermodynamic and chemical properties. These were overcome in the end and a new, lower cost growth method realized, but too late to have a significant impact in validating modeling hypotheses.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Evaluation of Engineered Barrier Systems FY20 Report

This report describes research and development (R&D) activities conducted during fiscal year 2020 (FY20) specifically related to the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) R&D Work Package in the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign supported by the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE). The R&D activities focus on understanding EBS component evolution and interactions within the EBS, as well as interactions between the host media and the EBS. A primary goal is to advance the development of process models that can be implemented directly within the Generic Disposal System Analysis (GDSA) platform or that can contribute to the safety case in some manner such as building confidence, providing further insight into the processes being modeled, establishing better constraints on barrier performance, etc. The FY20 EBS activities involved not only modeling and analysis work, but experimental work as well. Despite delays to some planned activities due to COVID-19 precautions, progress was made during FY20 in multiple research areas and documented in this report as follows: (1) EBS Task Force: Task 9/FEBEX Modeling Final Report: Thermo-Hydrological Modeling with PFLOTRAN, (2) preliminary sensitivity analysis for the FEBEX in-situ heater test, (3) cement-carbonate rock interaction under saturated conditions: from laboratory to modeling, (4) hydrothermal experiments, (5) progress on investigating the high temperature behavior of the uranyl-carbonate complexes, (6) in-situ and electrochemical work for model validation, (7) investigation of the impact of high temperature on EBS bentonite with THMC modeling, (8) sorption and diffusion experiments on bentonite, (9) chemical controls on montmorillonite structure and swelling pressure, (10) microscopic origins of coupled transport processes in bentonite, (11) understanding the THMC evolution of bentonite in FEBEX-DP—coupled THMC modeling, (12) modeling in support of HotBENT, an experiment studying the effects of high temperatures on clay buffers/near-field, and (13) high temperature heating and hydration column test on bentonite.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Performance modeling & simulation of complex systems (A systems engineering design & analysis approach)

Modeling of the Multi-mission Image Processing System (MIPS) will be described as an example of the use of a modeling tool to design a distributed system that supports multiple application scenarios. This paper examines: (a) modeling tool selection, capabilities, and operation (namely NETWORK 2.5 by CACl), (b) pointers for building or constructing a model and how the MIPS model was developed, (c) the importance of benchmarking or testing the performance of equipment/subsystems being considered for incorporation the design/architecture, (d) the essential step of model validation and/or calibration using the benchmark results, (e) sample simulation results from the MIPS model, and (f) how modeling and simulation analysis affected the MIPS design process by having a supportive and informative impact.

Hall, Laverne↗

Chemistry-Transport Modeling of the Satellite Observed Distribution of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone

We have compared the 14-year record of satellite derived tropical tropospheric ozone columns (TTOC) from the NIMBUS-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) to TTOC calculated by a chemistry-transport model (CTM). An objective measure of error, based on the zonal distribution of TTOC in the tropics, is applied to perform this comparison systematically. In addition, the sensitivity of the model to several key processes in the tropics is quantified to select directions for future improvements. The comparisons indicate a widespread, systematic (20%) discrepancy over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which maximizes during austral Spring. Although independent evidence from ozonesondes shows that some of the disagreement is due to satellite over-estimate of TTOC, the Atlantic mismatch is largely due to a misrepresentation of seasonally recurring processes in the model. Only minor differences between the model and observations over the Pacific occur, mostly due to interannual variability not captured by the model. Although chemical processes determine the TTOC extent, dynamical processes dominate the TTOC distribution, as the use of actual meteorology pertaining to the year of observations always leads to a better agreement with TTOC observations than using a random year or a climatology. The modeled TTOC is remarkably insensitive to many model parameters due to efficient feedbacks in the ozone budget. Nevertheless, the simulations would profit from an improved biomass burning calendar, as well as from an increase in NOX abundances in free tropospheric biomass burning plumes. The model showed the largest response to lightning NOX emissions, but systematic improvements could not be found. The use of multi-year satellite derived tropospheric data to systematically test and improve a CTM is a promising new addition to existing methods of model validation, and is a first step to integrating tropospheric satellite observations into global ozone modeling studies. Conversely,the CTM may suggest improvements to evolving satellite retrievals for tropospheric ozone.

Peters, Wouter↗

Incorporating Satellite Time-Series Data into Modeling

In situ time series observations have provided a multi-decadal view of long-term changes in ocean biology. These observations are sufficiently reliable to enable discernment of even relatively small changes, and provide continuous information on a host of variables. Their key drawback is their limited domain. Satellite observations from ocean color sensors do not suffer the drawback of domain, and simultaneously view the global oceans. This attribute lends credence to their use in global and regional model validation and data assimilation. We focus on these applications using the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model. The enhancement of the satellite data using data assimilation is featured and the limitation of tongterm satellite data sets is also discussed.

Gregg, Watson↗

Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions

Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds such as methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds such as ozone (O3), sulfate and organic aerosols, formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate-chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate-chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds such as O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds such as O3, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects such as ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AEROCOM project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric-tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favouring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature-induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced concentration through reduced biospheric uptake. During the last 510 years, new observational data have been made available and used for model validation and the study of atmospheric processes. Although there are significant uncertainties in the modelling of composition changes, access to new observational data has improved modelling capability. Emission scenarios for the coming decades have a large uncertainty range, in particular with respect to regional trends, leading to a significant uncertainty range in estimated regional composition changes and climate impact.

Atmosphere climate chemistry↗

Laboratory Demonstration of High Contrast with the PIAACMC Coronagraph on an Obstructed and Segmented Aperture

Coronagraphs (together with starshades) are an important tool to directly image and characterize exoplanets, and enable the search for biomarkers in reflected light on potentially habitable worlds. Their performance and efficiency has steadily been improving over the past several decades, but has not yet reached performance limits. In particular, the expected exoplanet yield for missions such as the Astro2020-recommended “IR/O/UV Flagship” can still be improved by factors of at least 2-3, simply by continued improvements in coronagraph performance, before they plateau due to physics limits. One possible architecture that can enable at least a part of this improvement is the Phase-Induced Amplitude Apodization Complex Mask Coronagraph (PIAACMC). Itoffersthe advantages of high throughput, small inner working angle (IWA),and almost noloss inPSF sharpness, and natively supports obstructed and segmented apertures, which is essential to the Astro2020 “IR/O/UV Flagship”mission. Historically, key disadvantages of PIAA have been poor tolerance to stellar angular sizes and maturity, but latest designs and demonstrations have made significant strides in this respect.In this paper, we present the current status and overview of our program to mature the PIAACMC technology. We first review PIAACMC designs for LUVOIR-A and B, which resultedin improved expected yield of Exo-Earths relative tothe baselines for both mission concepts. In particular, for LUVOIR-B, the yield improves from 28 to 42due to improvedtolerance to stellar angular size in our design. The improvement in yield is marginal for LUVOIR-A, but our design enables detecting planets around smaller diameter stars (nearby K-dwarfs and/or farther FG stars). We also describe our modeling and vacuum demonstrationsfor the LUVOIR-A aperture(which is more challengingthan LUVOIR-B due to the central obstruction).The demonstration included a LUVOUR-A pupil mask, an on-axis PIAA set of 2 mirrors with central holes, a Boston Micromachines DM, a patterned CMC mask, Lyot stop, and supporting masks and optics. Demonstrations were conducted at JPL’s High Contrast Imaging Testbed (HCIT) using several characterization andwavefront control techniques (primarily standard EFC, several experimental techniques were attempted, as well as speckle nulling). So far, our results include 1.9e-8 raw contrast in 10% broadband light between 3.5 and 8 l/D; 4.1e-8 and 1.6e-9 coherent contrasts in monochromatic light between 2-4 and 4-8 l/D, respectively. We also present measurements and analysis of sensitivity to tip/tilt jitter and stellar angular size. Finally, we compare our test results to models, present an analysis of our limiting factors, and explorefuture prospectsfor improvement based on validated models.

Coronagraph↗

TH-A-9A-08: Knowledge-Based Quality Control of Clinical Stereotactic Radiosurgery Treatment Plans

Purpose: To develop a quality control tool to reduce stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) planning variability using models that predict achievable plan quality metrics (QMs) based on individual patient anatomy. Methods: Using a knowledge-based methodology that quantitatively correlates anatomical geometric features to resultant organ-at-risk (OAR) dosimetry, we developed models for predicting achievable OAR dose-volume histograms (DVHs) by training with a cohort of previously treated SRS patients. The DVH-based QMs used in this work are the gradient measure, GM=(3/4pi)^1/3*[V50%^1/3−V100%^1/3], and V10Gy of normal brain. As GM quantifies the total rate of dose fall-off around the planning target volume (PTV), all voxels inside the patient's body contour were treated as OAR for DVH prediction. 35 previously treated SRS plans from our institution were collected; all were planned with non-coplanar volumetric-modulated arc therapy to prescription doses of 12–25 Gy. Of the 35-patient cohort, 15 were used for model training and 20 for model validation. Accuracies of the predictions were quantified by the mean and the standard deviation of the difference between clinical and predicted QMs, δQM=QM-clin−QM-pred. Results: Best agreement between predicted and clinical QMs was obtained when models were built separately for V-PTV<2.5cc and V-PTV>2.5cc. Eight patients trained the V-PTV<2.5cc model and seven patients trained the V-PTV>2.5cc models, respectively. The mean and the standard deviation of δGM were 0.3±0.4mm for the training sets and −0.1±0.6mm for the validation sets, demonstrating highly accurate GM predictions. V10Gy predictions were also highly accurate, with δV10Gy=0.8±0.7cc for the training sets and δV10Gy=0.7±1.4cc for the validation sets. Conclusion: The accuracy of the models in predicting two key SRS quality metrics highlights the potential of this technique for quality control for SRS treatments. Future investigations will seek to determine whether QM variations are due to residual model inaccuracies or true plan quality variations in the clinical sample. Support from Varian Medical Systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗