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NASA NTRS2003

Objective Classification of Radar Profile Types, and Their Relationship to Lightning Occurrence

A cluster analysis technique is used to identify 16 "archetypal" vertical radar profile types from a large, globally representative sample of profiles from the TRMM Precipitation Radar. These include nine convective types (7 of these deep convective) and seven stratiform types (5 of these clearly glaciated). Radar profile classification provides an alternative to conventional deep convective storm metrics, such as 30 dBZ echo height, maximum reflectivity or VIL. As expected, the global frequency of occurrence of deep convective profile types matches satellite-observed total lightning production, including to very small scall local features. Each location's "mix" of profile types provides an objective description of the local convective spectrum, and in turn, is a first step in objectively classifying convective regimes. These classifiers are tested as inputs to a neural network which attempts to predict lightning occurrence based on radar-only storm observations, and performance is compared with networks using traditional radar metrics as inputs.

Boccippio, Dennis↗
NASA NTRS2003

Transport Equation Based Wall Distance Computations Aimed at Flows With Time-Dependent Geometry

Eikonal, Hamilton-Jacobi and Poisson equations can be used for economical nearest wall distance computation and modification. Economical computations may be especially useful for aeroelastic and adaptive grid problems for which the grid deforms, and the nearest wall distance needs to be repeatedly computed. Modifications are directed at remedying turbulence model defects. For complex grid structures, implementation of the Eikonal and Hamilton-Jacobi approaches is not straightforward. This prohibits their use in industrial CFD solvers. However, both the Eikonal and Hamilton-Jacobi equations can be written in advection and advection-diffusion forms, respectively. These, like the Poisson s Laplacian, are commonly occurring industrial CFD solver elements. Use of the NASA CFL3D code to solve the Eikonal and Hamilton-Jacobi equations in advective-based forms is explored. The advection-based distance equations are found to have robust convergence. Geometries studied include single and two element airfoils, wing body and double delta configurations along with a complex electronics system. It is shown that for Eikonal accuracy, upwind metric differences are required. The Poisson approach is found effective and, since it does not require offset metric evaluations, easiest to implement. The sensitivity of flow solutions to wall distance assumptions is explored. Generally, results are not greatly affected by wall distance traits.

Tucker, Paul G.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Transport Equation Based Wall Distance Computations Aimed at Flows With Time-Dependent Geometry

Eikonal, Hamilton-Jacobi and Poisson equations can be used for economical nearest wall distance computation and modification. Economical computations may be especially useful for aeroelastic and adaptive grid problems for which the grid deforms, and the nearest wall distance needs to be repeatedly computed. Modifications are directed at remedying turbulence model defects. For complex grid structures, implementation of the Eikonal and Hamilton-Jacobi approaches is not straightforward. This prohibits their use in industrial CFD solvers. However, both the Eikonal and Hamilton-Jacobi equations can be written in advection and advection-diffusion forms, respectively. These, like the Poisson's Laplacian, are commonly occurring industrial CFD solver elements. Use of the NASA CFL3D code to solve the Eikonal and Hamilton-Jacobi equations in advective-based forms is explored. The advection-based distance equations are found to have robust convergence. Geometries studied include single and two element airfoils, wing body and double delta configurations along with a complex electronics system. It is shown that for Eikonal accuracy, upwind metric differences are required. The Poisson approach is found effective and, since it does not require offset metric evaluations, easiest to implement. The sensitivity of flow solutions to wall distance assumptions is explored. Generally, results are not greatly affected by wall distance traits.

Tucker, Paul G.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Stochastic Control Synthesis of Systems with Structured Uncertainty

This paper presents a study on the design of robust controllers by using random variables to model structured uncertainty for both SISO and MIMO feedback systems. Once the parameter uncertainty is prescribed with probability density functions, its effects are propagated through the analysis leading to stochastic metrics for the system's output. Control designs that aim for satisfactory performances while guaranteeing robust closed loop stability are attained by solving constrained non-linear optimization problems in the frequency domain. This approach permits not only to quantify the probability of having unstable and unfavorable responses for a particular control design but also to search for controls while favoring the values of the parameters with higher chance of occurrence. In this manner, robust optimality is achieved while the characteristic conservatism of conventional robust control methods is eliminated. Examples that admit closed form expressions for the probabilistic metrics of the output are used to elucidate the nature of the problem at hand and validate the proposed formulations.

Padula, Sharon L.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Object detection in natural backgrounds predicted by discrimination performance and models

Many models of visual performance predict image discriminability, the visibility of the difference between a pair of images. We compared the ability of three image discrimination models to predict the detectability of objects embedded in natural backgrounds. The three models were: a multiple channel Cortex transform model with within-channel masking; a single channel contrast sensitivity filter model; and a digital image difference metric. Each model used a Minkowski distance metric (generalized vector magnitude) to summate absolute differences between the background and object plus background images. For each model, this summation was implemented with three different exponents: 2, 4 and infinity. In addition, each combination of model and summation exponent was implemented with and without a simple contrast gain factor. The model outputs were compared to measures of object detectability obtained from 19 observers. Among the models without the contrast gain factor, the multiple channel model with a summation exponent of 4 performed best, predicting the pattern of observer d's with an RMS error of 2.3 dB. The contrast gain factor improved the predictions of all three models for all three exponents. With the factor, the best exponent was 4 for all three models, and their prediction errors were near 1 dB. These results demonstrate that image discrimination models can predict the relative detectability of objects in natural scenes.

NASA Center ARC↗
NASA NTRS2000

Wind Prediction Accuracy for Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools

The performance of Air Traffic Management and flight deck decision support tools depends in large part on the accuracy of the supporting 4D trajectory predictions. This is particularly relevant to conflict prediction and active advisories for the resolution of conflicts and the conformance with of traffic-flow management flow-rate constraints (e.g., arrival metering / required time of arrival). Flight test results have indicated that wind prediction errors may represent the largest source of trajectory prediction error. The tests also discovered relatively large errors (e.g., greater than 20 knots), existing in pockets of space and time critical to ATM DST performance (one or more sectors, greater than 20 minutes), are inadequately represented by the classic RMS aggregate prediction-accuracy studies of the past. To facilitate the identification and reduction of DST-critical wind-prediction errors, NASA has lead a collaborative research and development activity with MIT Lincoln Laboratories and the Forecast Systems Lab of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This activity, begun in 1996, has focussed on the development of key metrics for ATM DST performance, assessment of wind-prediction skill for state of the art systems, and development/validation of system enhancements to improve skill. A 13 month study was conducted for the Denver Center airspace in 1997. Two complementary wind-prediction systems were analyzed and compared to the forecast performance of the then standard 60 km Rapid Update Cycle - version 1 (RUC-1). One system, developed by NOAA, was the prototype 40-km RUC-2 that became operational at NCEP in 1999. RUC-2 introduced a faster cycle (1 hr vs. 3 hr) and improved mesoscale physics. The second system, Augmented Winds (AW), is a prototype en route wind application developed by MITLL based on the Integrated Terminal Wind System (ITWS). AW is run at a local facility (Center) level, and updates RUC predictions based on an optimal interpolation of the latest ACARS reports since the RUC run. This paper presents an overview of the study's results including the identification and use of new large mor wind-prediction accuracy metrics that are key to ATM DST performance.

Cole, Rod↗
NASA NTRS2004

Program Monitoring with LTL in EAGLE

We briefly present a rule-based framework called EAGLE, shown to be capable of defining and implementing finite trace monitoring logics, including future and past time temporal logic, extended regular expressions, real-time and metric temporal logics (MTL), interval logics, forms of quantified temporal logics, and so on. In this paper we focus on a linear temporal logic (LTL) specialization of EAGLE. For an initial formula of size m, we establish upper bounds of O(m(sup 2)2(sup m)log m) and O(m(sup 4)2(sup 2m)log(sup 2) m) for the space and time complexity, respectively, of single step evaluation over an input trace. This bound is close to the lower bound O(2(sup square root m) for future-time LTL presented. EAGLE has been successfully used, in both LTL and metric LTL forms, to test a real-time controller of an experimental NASA planetary rover.

Barringer, Howard↗
NASA NTRS2005

Trial by Fire

Boeing is preparing a range of Delta IV Heavy launcher options for NASA Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) and unmanned cargo transportation architectures to the Moon and Mars, now that the massive new rocket has been flight tested. The December 21 launch of the 232-ft. vehicle on 2 million lb. thrust marked the largest all-liquid expendable booster flown since the last Saturn V in 1973. A second Delta IV Heavy mission is scheduled for this summer carrying a U.S. Air Force missile warning satellite. The first launch carried a dummy payload. Boeing wants NASA to consider the Delta IV Heavy for manned CEV missions, but is also pushing the Heavy for unmanned exploration launch roles. One Delta IV Medium version could also be a CEV player. Boeing says even modest upgrades could double the Delta Heavy's Earth orbit capability to more than 50 metric tons, including being able to fire up to 20 metric tons on escape trajectories to Mars.

Covault, Craig↗
NASA NTRS2005

Narrow-band EUV Multilayer Coating for the MOSES Sounding Rocket

The Multi-order Solar EUV Spectrograph (MOSES) is a slitless spectrograph designed to study solar He II emission at 303.8 Angstroms, to be launched on a sounding rocket payload. One difference between MOSES and other slitless spectrographs is that the images are recorded simultaneously at three spectral orders, m = -1,0, +l. Another is the addition of a narrow-band multilayer coating on both the grating and the fold flat, which will reject out-of-band lines that normally contaminate the image of a slitless instrument. The primary metrics f a the mating were high peak reflectivity and suppression of Fe XV and XVI emission lines at 284 Angstroms and 335 Angstroms, respectively. We chose B4C/Mg2Si for our material combination since it provides better values for all three metrics together than the other leading candidates Si/Ir, Si/B4C or Si/SiC. Measurements of witness flats at NIST indicate the peak reflectivity at 303.6 is 38.5% for a 15 bilayer stack, while the suppression at 284 Angstroms, is 4.5x and at 335 Angstroms is 18.3x for each of two reflections in the instrument. We present the results of coating the MOSES flight gratings and fold flat, including the spectral response of the fold flat and grating as measured at NIST's SURF III and Brookhaven's X24C beamline.

Owens, Scott M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Subjective response of people to simulated sonic booms in their homes

In order to determine the effect of the number of sonic boom occurrences on annoyance, a computer-based system was developed for studying the subjective response of people to the occurrence of simulated sonic booms in their homes. The system provided a degree of control over the noise exposure not found in community surveys and a degree of situational realism not available in the laboratory. A system was deployed for eight weeks in each of 33 homes. Each day from 4 to 63 sonic booms were played as the test subject went about his or her normal activities. At the end of the day, the test subjects rated their annoyance to the sonic booms heard during the day. The sonic booms consisted of different combinations of waveforms, levels, and occurrence rates. The experiment confirmed that the increase in annoyance resulting from multiple occurrences can be modeled by the addition of the term "10 * log(number of occurrences)" to the sonic boom level. Of several noise metrics considered, perceived level was the best annoyance predictor. Comparisons of the subjective responses to the different sonic boom waveforms found no differences that were not accounted for by the noise metrics.

Noise, Transportation/adverse effects↗
NASA NTRS2005

Validation Of The Airspace Concept Evaluation System Using Real World Data

This paper discusses the process of performing a validation of the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES) using real world historical flight operational data. ACES inputs are generated from select real world data and processed to create a realistic reproduction of a single day of operations within the National Airspace System (NAS). ACES outputs are then compared to real world operational metrics and delay statistics for the reproduced day. Preliminary results indicate that ACES produces delays and airport operational metrics similar to the real world with minor variations of delay by phase of flight. ACES is a nation-wide fast-time simulation tool developed at NASA Ames Research Center. ACES models and simulates the NAS using interacting agents representing center control, terminal flow management, airports, individual flights, and other NAS elements. These agents pass messages between one another similar to real world communications. This distributed agent based system is designed to emulate the highly unpredictable nature of the NAS, making it a suitable tool to evaluate current and envisioned airspace concepts. To ensure that ACES produces the most realistic results, the system must be validated. There is no way to validate future concepts scenarios using real world historical data, but current day scenario validations increase confidence in the validity of future scenario results. Each operational day has unique weather and traffic demand schedules. The more a simulation utilizes the unique characteristic of a specific day, the more realistic the results should be. ACES is able to simulate the full scale demand traffic necessary to perform a validation using real world data. Through direct comparison with the real world, models may continuee to be improved and unusual trends and biases may be filtered out of the system or used to normalize the results of future concept simulations.

Zelinski, Shannon↗
NASA NTRS2004

The NASA Continuous Risk Management Process

As an intern this summer in the GRC Risk Management Office, I have become familiar with the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process. In this process, risk is considered in terms of the probability that an undesired event will occur and the impact of the event, should it occur (ref., NASA-NPG: 7120.5). Risk management belongs in every part of every project and should be ongoing from start to finish. Another key point is that a risk is not a problem until it has happened. With that in mind, there is a six step cycle for continuous risk management that prevents risks from becoming problems. The steps are: identify, analyze, plan, track, control, and communicate & document. Incorporated in the first step are several methods to identify risks such as brainstorming and using lessons learned. Once a risk is identified, a risk statement is made on a risk information sheet consisting of a single condition and one or more consequences. There can also be a context section where the risk is explained in more detail. Additionally there are three main goals of analyzing a risk, which are evaluate, classify, and prioritize. Here is where a value is given to the attributes of a risk &e., probability, impact, and timeframe) based on a multi-level classification system (e.g., low, medium, high). It is important to keep in mind that the definitions of these levels are probably different for each project. Furthermore the risks can be combined into groups. Then, the risks are prioritized to see what risk is necessary to mitigate first. After the risks are analyzed, a plan is made to mitigate as many risks as feasible. Each risk should be assigned to someone in the project with knowledge in the area of the risk. Then the possible approaches to choose from are: research, accept, watch, or mitigate. Next, all risks, mitigated or not, are tracked either individually or in groups. As the plan is executed, risks are re-evaluated, and the attribute values are adjusted as necessary. Metrics are established and monitored as tools for risk tracking. Also a trigger or threshold should be set on the metric data that indicates when an action is needed. Results of this tracking are usually evaluated and reported in a relevant format at weekly or monthly meetings. Choosing controls is the subsequent step, which involves the effects of the tracking. The three basic controls are: close, continue tracking, and re- plan. Finally communicate & document is the last step, but occurs throughout the process. It is vital that main risks, plans, changes, and progress are known by everyone in the project. A good way to keep everyone updated and inform other projects of common issues is by thoroughly documenting project risks. NASA sees value in risk management and believes that projects have greater probability or success by using the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process.

Pokorny, Frank M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Aerocapture, Entry, Descent and Landing (AEDL) Human Planetary Landing Systems. Section 10: AEDL Analysis, Test and Validation Infrastructure

Contents include the following: 3 Listing of critical capabilities (knowledge, procedures, training, facilities) and metrics for validating that they are mission ready. Examples of critical capabilities and validation metrics: ground test and simulations. Flight testing to prove capabilities are mission ready. Issues and recommendations.

Arnold, J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Method for Aircraft Concept Selection Using Multicriteria Interactive Genetic Algorithms

The problem of aircraft concept selection has become increasingly difficult in recent years as a result of a change from performance as the primary evaluation criteria of aircraft concepts to the current situation in which environmental effects, economics, and aesthetics must also be evaluated and considered in the earliest stages of the decision-making process. This has prompted a shift from design using historical data regression techniques for metric prediction to the use of physics-based analysis tools that are capable of analyzing designs outside of the historical database. The use of optimization methods with these physics-based tools, however, has proven difficult because of the tendency of optimizers to exploit assumptions present in the models and drive the design towards a solution which, while promising to the computer, may be infeasible due to factors not considered by the computer codes. In addition to this difficulty, the number of discrete options available at this stage may be unmanageable due to the combinatorial nature of the concept selection problem, leading the analyst to arbitrarily choose a sub-optimum baseline vehicle. These concept decisions such as the type of control surface scheme to use, though extremely important, are frequently made without sufficient understanding of their impact on the important system metrics because of a lack of computational resources or analysis tools. This paper describes a hybrid subjective/quantitative optimization method and its application to the concept selection of a Small Supersonic Transport. The method uses Genetic Algorithms to operate on a population of designs and promote improvement by varying more than sixty parameters governing the vehicle geometry, mission, and requirements. In addition to using computer codes for evaluation of quantitative criteria such as gross weight, expert input is also considered to account for criteria such as aeroelasticity or manufacturability which may be impossible or too computationally expensive to consider explicitly in the analysis. Results indicate that concepts resulting from the use of this method represent designs which are promising to both the computer and the analyst, and that a mapping between concepts and requirements that would not otherwise be apparent is revealed.

Buonanno, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2005

On-Line Loss of Control Detection Using Wavelets

Wavelet transforms are used for on-line detection of aircraft loss of control. Wavelet transforms are compared with Fourier transform methods and shown to more rapidly detect changes in the vehicle dynamics. This faster response is due to a time window that decreases in length as the frequency increases. New wavelets are defined that further decrease the detection time by skewing the shape of the envelope. The wavelets are used for power spectrum and transfer function estimation. Smoothing is used to tradeoff the variance of the estimate with detection time. Wavelets are also used as front-end to the eigensystem reconstruction algorithm. Stability metrics are estimated from the frequency response and models, and it is these metrics that are used for loss of control detection. A Matlab toolbox was developed for post-processing simulation and flight data using the wavelet analysis methods. A subset of these methods was implemented in real time and named the Loss of Control Analysis Tool Set or LOCATS. A manual control experiment was conducted using a hardware-in-the-loop simulator for a large transport aircraft, in which the real time performance of LOCATS was demonstrated. The next step is to use these wavelet analysis tools for flight test support.

Brenner, Martin J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Optimal Sensor Selection for Health Monitoring Systems

Sensor data are the basis for performance and health assessment of most complex systems. Careful selection and implementation of sensors is critical to enable high fidelity system health assessment. A model-based procedure that systematically selects an optimal sensor suite for overall health assessment of a designated host system is described. This procedure, termed the Systematic Sensor Selection Strategy (S4), was developed at NASA John H. Glenn Research Center in order to enhance design phase planning and preparations for in-space propulsion health management systems (HMS). Information and capabilities required to utilize the S4 approach in support of design phase development of robust health diagnostics are outlined. A merit metric that quantifies diagnostic performance and overall risk reduction potential of individual sensor suites is introduced. The conceptual foundation for this merit metric is presented and the algorithmic organization of the S4 optimization process is described. Representative results from S4 analyses of a boost stage rocket engine previously under development as part of NASA's Next Generation Launch Technology (NGLT) program are presented.

Santi, L. Michael↗
NASA NTRS2006

Progress in Development of an Airborne Turbulence Detection System

Aircraft encounters with turbulence are the leading cause of in-flight injuries (Tyrvanas 2003) and have occasionally resulted in passenger and crew fatalities. Most of these injuries are caused by sudden and unexpected encounters with severe turbulence in and around convective activity (Kaplan et al 2005). To alleviate this problem, the Turbulence Prediction and Warning Systems (TPAWS) element of NASA s Aviation Safety program has investigated technologies to detect and warn of hazardous in-flight turbulence. This effort has required the numerical modeling of atmospheric convection: 1) for characterizing convectively induced turbulence (CIT) environments, 2) for defining turbulence hazard metrics, and 3) as a means of providing realistic three-dimensional data sets that can be used to test and evaluate turbulence detection sensors. The data sets are being made available to industry and the FAA for certification of future airborne turbulence-detection systems (ATDS) with warning capability. Early in the TPAWS project, a radar-based ATDS was installed and flight tested on NASA s research aircraft, a B-757. This ATDS utilized new algorithms and hazard metrics that were developed for use with existing airborne predictive windshear radars, thus avoiding the installation of new hardware. This system was designed to detect and warn of hazardous CIT even in regions with weak radar reflectivity (i.e. 5-15 dBz). Results from an initial flight test of the ATDS were discussed in Hamilton and Proctor (2002a; 2002b). In companion papers (Proctor et al 2002a; 2002b), a numerical simulation of the most significant encounter from that flight test was presented. Since the presentation of these papers a second flight test has been conducted providing additional cases for examination. In this paper, we will present results from NASA s flight test and a numerical model simulation of a turbulence environment encountered on 30 April 2002. Progress leading towards FAA certification of industry built ATDS will also be discussed.

Hamilton, David W.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Aircraft Conceptual Design and Risk Analysis Using Physics-Based Noise Prediction

An approach was developed which allows for design studies of commercial aircraft using physics-based noise analysis methods while retaining the ability to perform the rapid trade-off and risk analysis studies needed at the conceptual design stage. A prototype integrated analysis process was created for computing the total aircraft EPNL at the Federal Aviation Regulations Part 36 certification measurement locations using physics-based methods for fan rotor-stator interaction tones and jet mixing noise. The methodology was then used in combination with design of experiments to create response surface equations (RSEs) for the engine and aircraft performance metrics, geometric constraints and take-off and landing noise levels. In addition, Monte Carlo analysis was used to assess the expected variability of the metrics under the influence of uncertainty, and to determine how the variability is affected by the choice of engine cycle. Finally, the RSEs were used to conduct a series of proof-of-concept conceptual-level design studies demonstrating the utility of the approach. The study found that a key advantage to using physics-based analysis during conceptual design lies in the ability to assess the benefits of new technologies as a function of the design to which they are applied. The greatest difficulty in implementing physics-based analysis proved to be the generation of design geometry at a sufficient level of detail for high-fidelity analysis.

Olson, Erik D.↗