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A Preliminary Development of The Intelligent Change Detection System (ICDS): Using Machine Learning to Combat Change Blindness in Remote Operation Environments

The emergence of Advance Air Mobility (AAM) will increase the number and types of aerial vehicles operating in shared airspaces, which will subsequently affect the amount of actionable data that ground control station operators (GCSOs) will be expected to manage. In this environment, GCSOs are particularly susceptible to the visual perceptual phenomenon known as change blindness, in which a stimulus undergoes a change without the change being noticed by its observer. A machine agent designed to detect change blindness and mitigate the effects could improve human agent performance in a data-saturated remote operations environment. The objective of this paper is to describe a proof-of-concept system architecture that integrates real-time eye tracking and vehicle telemetry data to prevent human-agent errors resulting from change blindness while operating aircraft from a remote ground control station (GCS).

Real-Time Streaming Data Architecture↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decom- pose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high- level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗
NASA NTRS2012

Achieving Accuracy Requirements for Forest Biomass Mapping: A Spaceborne Data Fusion Method for Estimating Forest Biomass and Lidar Sampling Error

The synergistic use of active and passive remote sensing (i.e., data fusion) demonstrates the ability of spaceborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR), synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and multispectral imagery for achieving the accuracy requirements of a global forest biomass mapping mission (+/-20 Mg/ha or 20%, the greater of the two, for at least 80% of grid cells). A data fusion approach also provides a means to extend 3D information from discrete spaceborne LiDAR measurements of forest structure across scales much larger than that of the LiDAR footprint. For estimating biomass, these measurements mix a number of errors including those associated with LiDAR footprint sampling over regional-global extents. A general framework for mapping above ground live forest biomass density (AGB) with a data fusion approach is presented and verified using data from NASA field campaigns near Howland, ME, USA, to assess AGB and LiDAR sampling errors across a regionally representative landscape. We combined SAR and Landsat-derived optical (passive optical) image data to identify contiguous areas (>0.5 ha) that are relatively homogenous in remote sensing metrics (forest patches). We used this image-derived data with simulated spaceborne LiDAR derived from orbit and cloud cover simulations and airborne data from NASA's Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS) to compute AGB and estimate LiDAR sampling error for forest patches and 100 m, 250 m, 500 m, and 1 km grid cells. At both the patch and grid scales, we evaluated differences in AGB estimation and sampling error from the combined use of LiDAR with both SAR and passive optical and with either SAR or passive optical alone. First, this data fusion approach demonstrates that incorporating forest patches into the AGB mapping framework can provide sub-grid forest information for coarser grid-level AGB reporting. Second, a data fusion approach for estimating AGB using simulated spaceborne LiDAR with SAR and passive optical image combinations reduced forest AGB sampling errors 12%-38% from those where LiDAR is used with SAR or passive optical alone. In absolute terms, sampling errors were reduced from 14-40 Mg/ha to 11-28 Mg/ha across all grid scales and prediction methods, where minimum sampling errors were 11, 15, 18, and 22 Mg/ha for 1 km, 500 m, 250 m, and 100 m grid scales, respectively. Third, spaceborne global scale accuracy requirements were achieved whereby at least 80% of the grid cells at 100 m, 250 m, 500 m, and 1 km grid levels met AGB accuracy requirements using a combination of passive optical and SAR along with machine learning methods to predict vegetation structure metrics for forested areas without LiDAR samples. Finally, using either passive optical or SAR, accuracy requirements were met at the 500 m and 250 m grid level, respectively..

LiDAR↗
DOE OSTI2020

Revealing the Formation Energy–Exfoliation Energy–Structure Correlation of MAB Phases Using Machine Learning and DFT

MAB phases are popular as high-temperature materials with high damage tolerance and excellent electrical conductivity that are used to exfoliate two-dimensional (2D) transition metal borides (MBenes); a promising material for developing next- generation nanodevices. In this report, we explore the correlation between the formation energy, exfoliation energy and structural factors of MAB phases using DFT and machine learning. In order to do so, we developed three different machine learning models based on the support vector machine, deep neural network, and random forest regressor to study the stability of the MAB phases by calculating their formation energies. Furthermore, our support vector machine and deep neural network models are capable of predicting the formation energies with mean absolute errors less than 0.1 eV/atom. We demonstrated that the stability of a MAB phase for a given transition metal decreases when the A element changes from Al to Tl. The density functional theory (DFT) re- vealed that M-A and M-B bond strength strongly correlates with the stability of MAB phases. In addition, the exfoliation possibility of 2D MBenes becomes higher when the A element changes from Al to Tl due to weakening of M-A and M-B bonds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

tLaSDI: Thermodynamics-informed latent space dynamics identification

Here we propose a latent space dynamics identification method, namely tLaSDI, that embeds the first and second principles of thermodynamics. The latent variables are learned through an autoencoder as a nonlinear dimension reduction model. The latent dynamics are constructed by a neural network-based model that precisely preserves certain structures for the thermodynamic laws through the GENERIC formalism. An abstract error estimate is established, which provides a new loss formulation involving the Jacobian computation of autoencoder. The autoencoder and the latent dynamics are simultaneously trained to minimize the new loss. Computational examples demonstrate the effectiveness of tLaSDI, which exhibits robust generalization ability, even in extrapolation. In addition, an intriguing correlation is empirically observed between a quantity from tLaSDI in the latent space and the behaviors of the full-state solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermodynamics-informed latent space dynamics identification

This software showcases a latent space dynamics identification method, namely tLaSDI, that embeds the first and second principles of thermodynamics. The latent variables are learned through an autoencoder as a nonlinear dimension reduction model. The latent dynamics are constructed by a neural network-based model that precisely preserves certain structures for the thermodynamic laws through the GENERIC formalism. An abstract error estimate is established, which provides a new loss formulation involving the Jacobian computation of autoencoder. The autoencoder and the latent dynamics are simultaneously trained to minimize the new loss. Computational examples demonstrate the effectiveness of tLaSDI, which exhibits robust generalization ability, even in extrapolation. In addition, an intriguing correlation is empirically observed between a quantity from tLaSDI in the latent space and the behaviors of the full-state solution.

Cheung, Siu Wun↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI to Predict Glass Compositions Satisfying Property and Cooling Rate Criteria

This project aimed to develop a predictive, artificial intelligence/machine learning-based model to identify glass compositions satisfying specified property requirements. Such a model would provide a systematic approach for narrowing down the nearly infinite range of possible compositions for glasses and minimize unnecessary experimental trial and error. A large empirical data set for training and testing the algorithm was obtained from the SciGlass database. It contains glass compositions and corresponding property data from a wide range of literature sources. However, the currently available form of this data, recently released under an open database license, is not conducive to easy querying and use. The data structure was deciphered and a customized parsing code developed to make this data more usable for the current and future work. Neural network models were developed and trained on viscosity data from the database and demonstrated potential for improving prediction accuracy over a traditional regression model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resilience Enhancements through Deep Learning Yields

This report documents the Resilience Enhancements through Deep Learning Yields (REDLY) project, a three-year effort to improve electrical grid resilience by developing scalable methods for system operators to protect the grid against threats leading to interrupted service or physical damage. The computational complexity and uncertain nature of current real-world contingency analysis presents significant barriers to automated, real-time monitoring. While there has been a significant push to explore the use of accurate, high-performance machine learning (ML) model surrogates to address this gap, their reliability is unclear when deployed in high-consequence applications such as power grid systems. Contemporary optimization techniques used to validate surrogate performance can exploit ML model prediction errors, which necessitates the verification of worst-case performance for the models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Optical Corrector for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) is currently measuring the spectra of 40 million galaxies and quasars, the largest such survey ever made to probe the nature of cosmological dark energy. The 4 m Mayall telescope at Kitt Peak National Observatory has been adapted for DESI, including the construction of a 3$_{.}^{°}$2 diameter prime focus corrector that focuses astronomical light onto a 0.8 m diameter focal surface with excellent image quality over the DESI bandpass of 360–980 nm. The wide-field corrector includes six lenses, as large as 1.1 m in diameter and as heavy as 237 kilograms, including two counterrotating wedged lenses that correct for atmospheric dispersion over zenith angles from 0° to 60°. The lenses, cells, and barrel assembly all meet precise alignment tolerances on the order of tens of microns. The barrel alignment is maintained throughout a range of observing angles and temperature excursions in the Mayall dome by use of a hexapod, which is itself supported by a new cage, ring, and truss structure. In this paper we describe the design, fabrication, and performance of the new corrector and associated structure, focusing on how they meet DESI requirements. In particular, we describe the prescription and specifications of the lenses, design choices and error budgeting of the barrel assembly, stray light mitigations, and integration and test at the Mayall telescope. We conclude with some validation highlights that demonstrate the successful corrector on-sky performance, and we list some lessons learned during the multiyear fabrication phase.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1975

Simulator evaluation of a perspective clipped-pole display and a thrust-vector controller for VTOL zero-zero landings

Five pilots participated in a simulator study to evaluate design features of a perspective clipped pole display and a side arm thrust vector controller for potential applications to VTOL zero visibility landings. Analyses of objective measures by a t test for related means showed significant learning effects, but did not show significant performance differences among display conditions. A mean longitudinal touchdown velocity of less than 4 knots, a mean vertical touchdown velocity of less than 1.22m/sec, and a mean longitudinal position error of approximately 15.24 m were attained during the final 10 trials of the experiment. The conclusion that adequate airspeed and altitude cues could be obtained from the glideslope and runway poles is supported by the absence of significant performance differences among display conditions.

Murphy, M. R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below $5\%$ MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regional Medium-Term Hourly Electricity Demand Forecasting Based on LSTM: Preprint

This paper aims to forecast high-resolution (hourly) aggregated load for a certain region in the medium term (a few days to over a year). One region is defined as some places with similar climate characteristics because the climate influences people's daily lifestyles and hence the electric usage. We decompose the electric usage records into two parts: base load and seasonal load. Considering both temperature and time factors, different deep-learning methods are adopted to characterize them. The first goal of our approach is to predict the peak load which is critical for power system planning. Furthermore, our proposed forecast method can provide the depiction of the hourly load profile to provide customized load curves for high-level real-time applications. The proposed method is tested on real-world historical data collected by CAISO, BPA, and PACW. The experimental results show that trained by three years of data, our method could reduce the prediction error for a one-year lead hourly load below 5% MAPE, and predict the occurrence of the peak load for next year in CAISO with an error within three days. Furthermore, as a byproduct, an interesting observation on the impact of COVID-19 on human life was made and discussed based on these case studies.

deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Approach to Realize Generalized Optimal Motion Primitives Using Physics Informed Neural Networks

Autonomous manipulation is a challenging problem in field robotics due to uncertainty in object properties, constraints, and coupling phenomenon with robot control systems. Humans learn motion primitives over time to effectively interact with the environment. We postulate that autonomous manipulation can be enabled by basic sets of motion primitives as well, but do not necessitate mimicking human motion primitives. Here, this work presents an approach to generalized optimal motion primitives using physics-informed neural networks. Our simulated and experimental results demonstrate that optimality is notionally maintained where the mean maximum observed final position percent error was 0.564% and the average mean error for all the trajectories was 1.53%. These results indicate that notional generalization is attained using a physics-informed neural network approach that enables near optimal real-time adaptation of primitive motion profiles.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding and control of Zener pinning via phase field and ensemble learning

Zener pinning refers to the dispersion of fine particles which influences grain size distribution via movement of grain boundaries in a polycrystalline material. Grain size distribution in polycrystals has a significant impact on their properties including physical, chemical, mechanical, and optical to name a few. We explore the use of Phase-field modeling and machine-learning techniques to understand and improve the control of grain size distribution via Zener pinning in polycrystalline materials. We develop a machine learning model that determines the relative importance of various parameters to exercise microstructure control via Zener pinning. Our workflow combines high-throughput phase-field simulations and machine learning to address the computational bottlenecks associated with large-scale simulations as well as identify features necessary for microstructure control in polycrystals. A random forest (RF) regression model was developed to predict grain sizes based on five Phase-field model parameters, achieving an average prediction error of 0.72 nm for the training data and 1.44 nm for the test data. The importance of the input parameters is analyzed using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) approach which reveals that diffusivity, volume fraction, and particle diameter are the most important parameters in determining the final grain size. These findings will allow us to select the best second-phase particles, optimize grain size distributions and thus design microstructures with the desired properties. The developed method is a highly versatile and generalizable approach that can be used to assess the combined effects of individual features in the presence of multiple variables.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning-based Prediction of Departure from Nucleate Boiling Power for the PSBT Benchmark

Machine Learning (ML) has seen an exponential growth in its applications due to its advanced data driven prediction capabilities. The study presents a data-driven approach as a preliminary attempt to predict the power at which departure from nucleate boiling (DNB) occurs in pressurized water reactors (PWRs) by constructing an advanced ML algorithm that takes outlet pressure, inlet temperature and inlet mass flux as the input features. DNB is a critical heat flux (CHF) phenomenon seen in PWRs. The experimental data from the PWR subchannel and bundle tests (PSBT) benchmark is first used to train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the DNB power, which produces a root mean square error (RMSE) of 6.89 kW/m when tested on a blind subset of the PSBT data. Since the PSBT dataset is relatively small to train an accurate ANN, a data augmentation methodology based on generative adversarial networks (GANs) is used to expand the training dataset. By assuming that the real data follows a certain distribution, GANs try to learn that underlying distribution to generate similar synthetic data to augment the database and to improve the predictive capabilities of the ANN. The data generated from GANs are validated using 1-nearest neighbor and kernel maximum mean discrepancy. To further ensure data from GAN is similar to PSBT, the data is tested and filtered out using the sub-channel thermal-hydraulic code CTF. The results indicate that with the addition of 120 data points from GAN the RMSE reduces to 4.84 kW/m showing promising results for future developments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dataset for "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models" Willard et al. (2024)

This data release provides all data and code used in the paper " "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models" Willard et al. (2024)" to model stream temperature, evaluate, and assess results. The associated manuscript explores current open questions in prediction in ungauged and unmonitored basins concerning top-down versus bottom-up approaches, tradeoffs between data available and input requirements, and the appropriate representation of catchment attributes as inputs to deep learning models. Modeling was done primarily with long short-term memory (LSTM) models, and stream site coverage spans 1362 locations across the conterminous United States. The data is organized into these items items:Code repository and data for the paper " "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models" Willard et al. (2024)".Code: stream_temp_ml_regionalization.zip contains the code repositoryData to run the code: - data_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "DATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- metadata_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "METADATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- error_analysis_attribute_and_groundwater_dir.zip - workflows for the extended error analysis by stream attribute and groundwater influenceData produced by the code and used in the paper:- outputs_dir.zip - contains model output and results (outputs_dir/results), model weights (outputs_dir/models), and all other outputs used for the paper including feature importances.To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX or MLA entries:bibtex:@misc{willard2024streamdata, author = {Jared Willard and Fabio Ciulla and Helen Weierbach and Vipin Kumar and Charuleka Varadharajan}, title = {Dataset for "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models"}, year = {2024}, doi = {10.15485/2448016}, publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository}, url = {https://doi.org/10.15485/2448016}}MLA: Willard, Jared, et al. Dataset for "Evaluating Deep Learning Approaches for Predictions in Unmonitored Basins with Continental-scale Stream Temperature Models". 2024. ESS-DIVE Repository, doi:10.15485/2448016.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven based coordinated smart inverter control for distributed energy resources

Smart inverters (SI) for distributed energy resources (DER) are becoming popular since they have the ability to stabilize as well as restore the voltage and frequency of power systems. Aiming at establishing the mathematical models combined with SI control methods, multiple optimization methods are developed. However, the computational complexity of solving such a mathematical model with various uncertainties limits the real-time application of the SI control. To conquer this challenge, a data-driven-based SI control approach is developed to achieve coordinated control in the high penetration DER system. First, an optimization problem for maximizing the active power generation and minimizing the power loss is designed using the Volt/VAR control. To reduce the time consumption, the recurrent neural network (RNN) is proposed to model the relationship between the uncertainties and control actions during the offline site. The RNN with different sub-structures such as the long short-term memory cell and gated recurrent unit cell are included to enrich the diversity of features. In the last stage, different experiment comparisons, including multiple uncertainties maps and stateof- art machine learning methods, are conducted to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method based on the IEEE 123 bus power system. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively achieve a rapid and coordinated control with a lower error rate.

Qiu, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating Watershed Subsurface Permeability From Stream Discharge Data using Deep Neural Networks, Frontiers in Earth Science: Dataset

This data package contains watershed modeling inputs and outputs as well as deep neural networks training and testing results used in "Estimating Watershed Subsurface Permeability From Stream Discharge Data using Deep Neural Networks" (Cromwell et al., 2021). We train various deep neural network models with different architectures to predict subsurface permeability from stream discharge hydrograph at the watershed outlet. The training data are obtained from ensemble simulations of hydrographs corresponding to an permeability ensemble using a fully-distributed, integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model. The trained model is then applied to estimate the permeability of the real watershed using its observed hydrograph at the outlet. Our study demonstrates that the permeabilities of the soil and geologic facies that make significant contributions to the outlet discharge can be more accurately estimated from the discharge data. Their estimations are also more robust with observation errors. Compared to the traditional ensemble smoother method, DNNs show stronger performance in capturing the nonlinear relationship between permeability and stream hydrograph to accurately estimate permeability. Our study sheds new light on the value of the emerging deep learning methods in assisting integrated watershed modeling by improving parameter estimation, which will eventually reduce the uncertainty in predictive watershed models. For detailed information regarding watershed model description and DNNs setup, please refer to Cromwell et al., 2021. The deep_learning.zip file contains the inputs and outputs for the different deep neural networks. The watershed_model.zip file contains the inputs and outputs for watershed simulation using ATS. The figures.zip file contains raw figures and their corresponding scripts. For a more detailed description, please see the README.md file within each compressed file.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗