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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

An application of survival analysis to disruption prediction via Random Forests

One of the most pressing challenges facing the fusion community is adequately mitigating or, even better, avoiding disruptions of tokamak plasmas. However, before this can be done, disruptions must first be predicted with sufficient warning time to actuate a response. The established field of survival analysis provides a convenient statistical framework for time-to-event (i.e. time-to-disruption) studies. This paper demonstrates the integration of an existing disruption prediction machine learning algorithm with the Kaplan-Meier estimator of survival probability. Specifically discussed are the implied warning times from binary classification of disruption databases and the interpretation of output signals from Random Forest algorithms trained and tested on these databases. This survival analysis approach is applied to both smooth and noisy test data to highlight important features of the survival and hazard functions. In addition, this method is applied to three Alcator C-Mod plasma discharges and compared to a threshold-based scheme for triggering alarms. In one case, both techniques successfully predict the disruption; although, in another, neither warns of the impending disruption with enough time to mitigate. For the final discharge, the survival analysis approach could avoid the false alarm triggered by the threshold method. Limitations of this analysis and opportunities for future work are also presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2013

Fast Change Point Detection for Electricity Market Analysis

Electricity is a vital part of our daily life; therefore it is important to avoid irregularities such as the California Electricity Crisis of 2000 and 2001. In this work, we seek to predict anomalies using advanced machine learning algorithms. These algorithms are effective, but computationally expensive, especially if we plan to apply them on hourly electricity market data covering a number of years. To address this challenge, we significantly accelerate the computation of the Gaussian Process (GP) for time series data. In the context of a Change Point Detection (CPD) algorithm, we reduce its computational complexity from O($n^{5}$) to O($n^{2}$). Our efficient algorithm makes it possible to compute the Change Points using the hourly price data from the California Electricity Crisis. By comparing the detected Change Points with known events, we show that the Change Point Detection algorithm is indeed effective in detecting signals preceding major events.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Model for mapping settlements

A programmable media includes a graphical processing unit in communication with a memory element. The graphical processing unit is configured to detect one or more settlement regions from a high resolution remote sensed image based on the execution of programming code. The graphical processing unit identifies one or more settlements through the execution of the programming code that executes a multi-instance learning algorithm that models portions of the high resolution remote sensed image. The identification is based on spectral bands transmitted by a satellite and on selected designations of the image patches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Integrating Symbolic and Statistical Methods for Testing Intelligent Systems Applications to Machine Learning and Computer Vision

Embedded intelligent systems ranging from tiny im- plantable biomedical devices to large swarms of autonomous un- manned aerial systems are becoming pervasive in our daily lives. While we depend on the flawless functioning of such intelligent systems, and often take their behavioral correctness and safety for granted, it is notoriously difficult to generate test cases that expose subtle errors in the implementations of machine learning algorithms. Hence, the validation of intelligent systems is usually achieved by studying their behavior on representative data sets, using methods such as cross-validation and bootstrapping.In this paper, we present a new testing methodology for studying the correctness of intelligent systems. Our approach uses symbolic decision procedures coupled with statistical hypothesis testing to. We also use our algorithm to analyze the robustness of a human detection algorithm built using the OpenCV open-source computer vision library. We show that the human detection implementation can fail to detect humans in perturbed video frames even when the perturbations are so small that the corresponding frames look identical to the naked eye.

Jha, Sumit Kumar↗
DOE OSTI2016

shiftNMFk 1.1: Robust Nonnegative matrix factorization with kmeans clustering and signal shift, for allocation of unknown physical sources, toy version for open sourcing with publications

This code is a toy (short) version of CODE-2016-83. From a general perspective, the code represents an unsupervised adaptive machine learning algorithm that allows efficient and high performance de-mixing and feature extraction of a multitude of non-negative signals mixed and recorded by a network of uncorrelated sensor arrays. The code identifies the number of the mixed original signals and their locations. Further, the code also allows deciphering of signals that have been delayed in regards to the mixing process in each sensor. This code is high customizable and it can be efficiently used for a fast macro-analyses of data. The code is applicable to a plethora of distinct problems: chemical decomposition, pressure transient decomposition, unknown sources/signal allocation, EM signal decomposition. An additional procedure for allocation of the unknown sources is incorporated in the code.

Alexandrov, Boian S.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Utilizing Genetic Programming to Identify Failures in ICS Networks

Previously, researchers have attempted to apply machine learning techniques to network anomaly detection problems. Due to the staggering amount of variety that can occur in normal networks, the results have often been underwhelming. These challenges are far less pronounced when considering industrial control system (ICS) networks. The recurrent nature of these networks results in less noise and more consistent patterns for a machine learning algorithm to recognize. Here, we propose a method of evolving decision trees through genetic programming (GP) in order to detect network anomalies, such as device outages. Our approach extracts over a dozen features from network packet captures and netflows, normalizes them, and relates them in decision trees using fuzzy logic operators. Furthermore, the trees were used to detect three specific network events from three different points on the network across a statistically significant number of runs and achieved 100% accuracy on five of the nine experiments. When the trees attempted to detect more challenging events at points of presence further from the occurrence, the accuracy averaged to above 98%. Finally, using our method, all of the evolutionary cycles of the GP algorithm are computed a-priori, allowing the best resultant trees to be deployed as semi-real-time sensors with little overhead.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

A Machine Learning Approach for Business Intelligence Analysis using Commercial Shipping Transaction Data

Business intelligence problems are particularly challenging due to the use of large volume and high velocity data in attempts to model and explain complex underlying phenomena. Incremental machine learning based approaches for summarizing trends and identifying anomalous behavior are often desirable in such conditions to assist domain experts in characterizing their data. The overall goal of this research is to develop a machine learning algorithm that enables predictive analysis on streaming data, detects changes and anomalies in the data, and can evolve based on the dynamic behavior of the data. Commercial shipping transaction data for the U.S. is used to develop and test a Naïve Bayes model that classifies several companies into lines of businesses and demonstrates an ability to predict when the behavior of these companies changes by venturing into other lines of businesses.

Bramer, Lisa M.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Dynamic defense and network randomization for computer systems

The various technologies presented herein relate to determining a network attack is taking place, and further to adjust one or more network parameters such that the network becomes dynamically configured. A plurality of machine learning algorithms are configured to recognize an active attack pattern. Notification of the attack can be generated, and knowledge gained from the detected attack pattern can be utilized to improve the knowledge of the algorithms to detect a subsequent attack vector(s). Further, network settings and application communications can be dynamically randomized, wherein artificial diversity converts control systems into moving targets that help mitigate the early reconnaissance stages of an attack. An attack(s) based upon a known static address(es) of a critical infrastructure network device(s) can be mitigated by the dynamic randomization. Network parameters that can be randomized include IP addresses, application port numbers, paths data packets navigate through the network, application randomization, etc.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Progress Toward a Deep-Learning-Based Search for Low-Energy Electron Neutrinos in MicroBooNE

MicroBooNE is a neutrino experiment based at Fermilab which consists of a liquid argon time-projection chamber in the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB). The experiment aims to investigate the excess of electron neutrino-like events seen by the MiniBooNE experiment, also located in the BNB. I will describe the status of our deep-learning-based search for low-energy electron neutrino interactions within the MicroBooNE detector and the muon neutrino interactions by which we will constrain them. This analysis features a novel hybrid approach of traditional reconstruction methods combined with the use of convolutional neural networks, a type of deep learning algorithm highly adept at pattern recognition. I will present work on ongoing studies that will characterize and quantify the systematic uncertainties associated with this analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Error-Bounded Graph Construction for Semi-supervised Manifold Learning

Graphs are commonly used in semi-supervised learning to represent a manifold on which the data reside in a high-dimensional ambient space. The graph can then be utilized in different ways, typically via the Laplacian of the graph, in order to leverage associations among the unlabeled data to improve learning. One common way to leverage the graph Laplacian is as a regularization term, where models that would disagree with the graph are penalized. More often the spectrum of the graph Laplacian is used to find a lower dimensional embedding in which neighboring relations encoded via the graph are preserved. Most manifold-based methods of semi-supervised learning depend upon geometric structure in the ambient feature space in order to construct a graph whose edges encode similarity that should be useful in selecting a model. A critical assumption is that some standard measure of similarity applied to the ambient space can be used to construct a graph that is error-free or of low error, meaning that examples (i.e., vertices) from distinct classes are not connected. However, this assumption often precludes the use of such methods in noisy or complex feature spaces, even though such spaces often arise in problems that can most benefit from structure that might be uncovered within the unlabeled data. This paper presents a method of graph construction for manifold-based semi-supervised learning that respects the manifold assumptions underlying these methods and bounds the error on the graph itself, which then permits bounds on the overall generalization error of the learning algorithms without relying on assumptions that do not hold in many modern problem domains.

Symons, Christopher T↗
DOE OSTI2019

Subtask 1.4 - Techno-Economic Assessment of Regional Carbon Utilization Scenarios and Attendant Monitoring Technology

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Program seeks to develop technologies to significantly improve the effectiveness of carbon capture and storage (CCS), reduce the cost of implementation, and support the readiness of widespread commercial deployment by 2035. To accomplish this goal, technical and economic barriers must be addressed and the results used to inform regulators and industry on the safety, permanence, and viability of carbon storage. To help overcome these barriers, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted three activities: 1) investigate the regional techno-economic life cycle of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in North Dakota, 2) assist DOE in determining the prospective CO2 storage resource of residual oil zones (ROZs), and 3) develop a seismic technique for monitoring geologic storage of CO2. These three activities address two strategic goals enumerated in the DOE–EERC Cooperative Agreement, namely, 1) to advance foundational science and 2) to inform data-driven policies that enhance U.S. economic growth and job creation, energy security, and environmental quality. Activity 1 In North Dakota, there is synergistic incentive to develop and implement CO2 EOR technologies. Regional industry partners are actively seeking options that can cost-effectively improve the efficiency of power production, while also coproducing CO2 for use in EOR applications. A full-value-chain techno-economic assessment that links lignite resources, power generation, and EOR is needed to determine the implications for a state or region to continue to use these resources or look elsewhere for other energy sources and revenue streams. The integration of North Dakota’s lignite power industry with the state’s oil industry has the potential to revitalize legacy oil fields and produce up to 1 billion barrels of additional oil using CO2 EOR while providing a market for a CO2 commodity captured at coal-fired power plants. Revitalization of North Dakota’s legacy oil fields will bring new industry investment to the state, resulting in the growth of oil-related jobs and revenue through oil sales, severance tax, and associated oilfield development activities (drilling, pipelines, etc.). CO2 demand for EOR and incremental oil production were calculated for 201 conventional oil fields in North Dakota. Infrastructure development in the fields was estimated using 1) a traditional vertical well arrangement of CO2 injectors and oil producers and 2) an advanced case where horizontal wells were used exclusively. Pipeline, compression, and recycling infrastructure requirements were also estimated. When viewed from the CO2 capture and CO2 EOR sectors, the advanced case showed a positive investment scenario when including potential benefits of the 45Q tax credit policy. An economic evaluation of a full implementation of CO2 EOR showed an average $60 billion potential state economic impact estimated over the 37-year construction and production time frame could be realized with an assumed oil price of $65/bbl. Oil price ranges of $35–$90/bbl cause an estimated variation of ±$5 billion over the potential effort. The total net state government revenues were estimated over the 37-year construction and production time frame. With an assumed oil price of $65/bbl, total potential fiscal impact could average $7.4 billion. This result ranges about ±$2.5 billion for a potential EOR implementation effort for oil price ranges of $35–$90/bbl. This broad-brush assessment was focused on “magnitude-of-effect” perspectives of what CO2 capture and use for EOR could mean to the state. Whether CO2 EOR ever becomes widely adopted is not the issue at this stage of evaluation. The question being answered is, How valuable could CO2 capture and CO2 EOR be for the state and local jurisdictions in western North Dakota? The results of the current economic assessment remove any ambiguity to that question. Full implementation of CO2 EOR as modeled in this study provides substantial economic benefits to the state, even at low oil prices (i.e., $35/bbl). Job creation and government revenues could be substantial, depending on the scale of implementation. With a better understanding of what CO2 EOR might mean for the state’s economy, the focus can now shift to the policies and financial mechanisms needed to make private investment in CO2 capture and use as EOR competitive with other energy-related pursuits. Activity 2 ROZs contain remnants of oil not swept away by natural waterflooding. Although nearly all of the identified ROZs are found in West Texas, there is evidence that this category of oil reservoir can be found in other major oil-producing basins of the United States. Because the formation of these oil reservoirs is distinct from other conventional reservoirs, the method to estimate the prospective CO2 storage resource in ROZs may be equally distinct from the method used for conventional fields. As such, the EERC collaborated with DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) to investigate the feasibility of CO2 storage in ROZs and determine what specific modification (if any) needs to be made to the current DOE volumetric method to estimate prospective CO2 storage resource in oil reservoirs. This activity built on a previous EERC investigation to identify ROZs in the Williston and Powder River Basins and upon collaborations between the EERC and NETL to develop storage resource estimation methods for different types of geologic CO2 storage. Review of the volumetric approach raised questions about the applicability of such an approach to hydrocarbon-bearing zones without the inclusion of potential hydrocarbon production. A production-based approach was presented by the EERC to inform the working group of additional methods of increasing the CO2 storage resource potential. Because the production-based method focuses more heavily on oil recovery than CO2 storage, it was not included in the working group manuscript. Activity 3 The EERC has used sparse and irregular seismic arrays to detect CO2 injected into a reservoir. The variability of seismic noise recorded by the sensors directly impacts the seismic interpretation. However, designing noise attenuation workflows effectively can be a more challenging task using sparse and irregular arrays for data acquisition. Based on the hypothesis that noncoherent noise is stationary during weekly data acquisition, a new machine-learning algorithm was developed to automatically estimate noise conditions using passive records, noise from active records, and ancillary information. The new noise attenuation processing workflow can improve the time-lapse detection of CO2 from sparse and irregular array acquisitions. Results show spatial and temporal noise patterns can be related to the location of the sensors and the weather conditions during the data acquisition and that our attenuation processing workflow can improve the time-lapse detection of CO2 from sparse and irregular array acquisitions. This effort was funded in part through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Department of Commerce.

Peck, Wesly↗
DOE OSTI2018

Developing a Bubble Chamber Particle Discriminator Using Semi-Supervised Learning

The identification of non-signal events is a major hurdle to overcome for bubble chamber dark matter experiments such as PICO-60. The current practice of manually developing a discriminator function to eliminate background events is difficult when available calibration data is frequently impure and present only in small quantities. In this study, several different discriminator input/preprocessing formats and neural network architectures are applied to the task. First, they are optimized in a supervised learning context. Next, two novel semi-supervised learning algorithms are trained, and found to replicate the Acoustic Parameter (AP) discriminator previously used in PICO-60 with a mean of 97% accuracy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2019

Muon Monitor Data To Maintain The Quality Of The NuMI Neutrino Beam at Fermilab

The NuMI-AIP has been proposed to upgrade the NuMI target system for a 1-MW operation. The facility produces an intense muon neutrino beam by using a high power pion production target and a focusing magnetic horns for long baseline neutrino experiment. A muon monitor which measures muon beam profile, is a key beam element to maintain the quality of muon neutrino beam. The system will be upgraded for the high beam power operation. We studied the response of muon monitors with the proton beam power, proton beam position on the target, and focusing strength of the horn. The results were evaluated for future operations. The response function needs to be modeled by using Machine Learning algorithms which will be implemented into a muon monitor signal analyzer. The new analyzer will forecast the neutrino beam quality and control the beam position on the target if needed. Upgrading the helium gas handling system is the other key to improve the stability of the muon monitor signal. We will present the status of the upgrade plan.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2019

LeptonJet Categorization with Decision Tree

With much evidence for dark matter arising from astronomical observations, particle physics has also begun to look for dark matter candidates. Here, a boosted decision tree machine learning algorithm (BDT) is used to distinguish signal from background in a search for self-interacting dark matter at CMS with two different final states of signal. The signal final states are two displaced collimated pairs of leptons (leptonJets). In this project, possible improvements to the BDT are explored. Various methods of signal separation are studied, as well as various accuracy metrics to study and compare the different models. Through the separated models and improvements in training, a slight increase in accuracy score was obtained (0.01% on electrons, 0.46% on muons). Additionally, the separated models were able to recognize a significantly increased percentage of signal, particularly against the electron signal. Separated models are being considered as part of the larger an alysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direction-optimizing Label Propagation and its Application for Community Detection

Label Propagation is a machine learning algorithm typically used for classification. It has also been found to be an effective method for detecting communities in networks. It has two attractive features as a community detection method: it has nearly linear runtime and it requires no \textit{a priori} community information. We propose a new Direction Optimizing Label Propagation Algorithm (DOLPA) that relies on the use of {\em frontiers} and alternates between label {\em push} and label {\em pull} operations to enhance the performance of LPA. Specifically, DOLPA has parameters for tuning the processing order of vertices in a graph. This reduces the number of edges visited and improves the quality of solution. We apply DOLPA to community detection and present the design and implementation of the algorithm as well as its shared-memory parallelization using OpenMP. Empirically, we evaluate our algorithm using synthetic graphs as well as real-world networks. Compared with the state-of-art \textit{Parallel Label Propagation} algorithm, we achieve at least two times the F-Score while reducing the runtime by 50\% for synthetic graphs with overlapping communities. We also compare DOLPA against the state-of-art parallel implementation of the Louvain method using the same graphs and show that DOLPA achieves about three times the F-Score at 10\% the runtime. On real-world graphs, we get a speedup of up to $10\times$ using 64 threads.

Liu, X↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Learning-based Supervisory Control Architecture for Electric Vehicle Charging System Paired with Energy Storages

A Machine Learning-based predictive model is developed for optimal dispatching energy storage system integrated with Electric Vehicle battery charger. The model is effectively trained using transfer learning algorithm and successfully validated via measurement data to achieve high fidelity and accuracy. The study findings provide possibilities for future development of the presented approach to implement computational heavy predictive algorithms with multi-step predictions in emerging modular bidirectional charger topologies to realize vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technology. The online tuning can be explored using the new measurements obtained during the operation, henceforth, enhancing the controller performance for integrating multiple DERs into distribution power networks that shows huge interest for the utilities and regulatory agencies. Multiple operation scenatios have been evaluated and simulation results are discussed to verify intended performance of the proposed control solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Domain adaptation techniques for improved cross-domain study of galaxy mergers

In astronomy, neural networks are often trained on simulated data with the prospect of being applied to real observations. Unfortunately, simply training a deep neural network on images from one domain does not guarantee satisfactory performance on new images from a different domain. The ability to share cross-domain knowledge is the main advantage of modern deep domain adaptation techniques. Here we demonstrate the use of two techniques - Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) and adversarial training with Domain Adversarial Neural Networks (DANN) - for the classification of distant galaxy mergers from the Illustris-1 simulation, where the two domains presented differ only due to inclusion of observational noise. We show how the addition of either MMD or adversarial training greatly improves the performance of the classifier on the target domain when compared to conventional machine learning algorithms, thereby demonstrating great promise for their use in astronomy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep Learning Prediction of Interspecies Interactions from Self-organized Spatiotemporal Patterns of Co-evolving Organisms

Microorganisms colonizing natural habits such as soils co-evolve to form specific spatial patterns through interspecies interactions. These self-organized patterns are a key ecological phenotype, which provides critical information on their interaction mechanisms. However, conventional network inference techniques that analyze species population data in bulk have yet to be extended to account for such spatial heterogeneity. Here we proposed supervised deep learning as a new network inference tool for predicting interspecies interactions from spatiotemporal patterns of microbial evolution. Due to lack of biological imaging data that can be used for training deep learning networks, we used in silico data generated from high-fidelity agent-based models to determine model structure and parameters. Even though networks were trained under simple configurations where interaction coefficients are assumed to be spatially invariant, we demonstrated that the resulting model can be utilized to successfully predict spatial variation of interactions in more complex domains (i.e., configured with a context-dependent mixture of interaction coefficients) as well as in simple domains without further training. In the further test against real biological data obtained through imaging experiments of a binary consortium (Pseudomonas fluorescens and a mutant of Escherichia coli), our model also predicted the dramatic shifts in interactions of the two organisms across different environmental contexts. Through various successful demonstrations in this work, the combined use of the agent-based model and machine learning algorithm provides a means to use new type of data - microscopic images - for extracting microbial interactions, therefore presenting itself as a useful tool for the analysis of more complex microbial community interactions.

Lee, Joon-Yong↗