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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Clumped isotope constraints on changes in latest Pleistocene hydroclimate in the northwestern Great Basin: Lake Surprise, California

Abstract During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the Great Basin in the southwestern United States was covered by numerous extensive closed-basin lakes, in stark contrast with the predominately arid climate observed today. This transition from lakes in the Late Pleistocene to modern aridity implies large changes in the regional water balance. Whether these changes were driven by increased precipitation rates due to changes in atmospheric dynamics, decreased evaporation rates resulting from temperature depression and summer insolation changes, or some combination of the two remains uncertain. The factors contributing to these large-scale changes in hydroclimate are critical to resolve, given that this region is poised to undergo future anthropogenic-forced climate changes with large uncertainties in model simulations for the 21st century. Furthermore, there are ambiguous constraints on the magnitude and even the sign of changes in key hydroclimate variables between the Last Glacial Maximum and the present day in both proxy reconstructions and climate model analyses of the region. Here we report thermodynamically derived estimates of changes in temperature, precipitation, and evaporation rates, as well as the isotopic composition of lake water, using clumped isotope data from an ancient lake in the northwestern Great Basin, Lake Surprise (California). Compared to modern climate, mean annual air temperature at Lake Surprise was 4.7 °C lower during the Last Glacial Maximum, with decreased evaporation rates and similar precipitation rates to modern. During the mid-deglacial period, the growth of Lake Surprise implied that the lake hydrologic budget briefly departed from steady state. Our reconstructions indicate that this growth took place rapidly, while the subsequent lake regression took place over several thousand years. Using models for precipitation and evaporation constrained from clumped isotope results, we determine that the disappearance of Lake Surprise coincided with a moderate increase in lake temperature, along with increasing evaporation rates outpacing increasing precipitation rates. Concomitant analysis of proxy data and climate model simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum are used to provide a robust means to understand past climate change, and by extension, predict how current hydroclimates may respond to expected future climate forcings. We suggest that an expansion of this analysis to more basins across a larger spatial scale could provide valuable insight into proposed climate forcings, and aid in climate model process depiction. Ultimately, our analysis highlights the importance of temperature-driven evaporation as a mechanism for lake growth and retreat in this region.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2023

The future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences

Future changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are uncertain, both because future projections differ between climate models and because the large internal variability of ENSO clouds the diagnosis of forced changes in observations and individual climate model simulations. By leveraging 14 single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), we robustly isolate the time-evolving response of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability to anthropogenic forcing from internal variability in each SMILE. We find nonlinear changes in time in many models and considerable inter-model differences in projected changes in ENSO and the mean-state tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient. We demonstrate a linear relationship between the change in ENSO SST variability and the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient, although forced changes in the tropical Pacific SST gradient often occur later in the 21st century than changes in ENSO SST variability, which can lead to departures from the linear relationship. Single-forcing SMILEs show a potential contribution of anthropogenic forcing (aerosols and greenhouse gases) to historical changes in ENSO SST variability, while the observed historical strengthening of the tropical Pacific SST gradient sits on the edge of the model spread for those models for which single-forcing SMILEs are available. Our results highlight the value of SMILEs for investigating time-dependent forced responses and inter-model differences in ENSO projections. The nonlinear changes in ENSO SST variability found in many models demonstrate the importance of characterizing this time-dependent behavior, as it implies that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights into Waterflooding in Hydrocarbon-Bearing Nanochannels of Varying Cross Sections from Mesoscopic Multiphase Flow Simulations

Waterflooding is one of the geotechnique used to recover fuel sources from nanoporous geological formations. The scientific understanding of the process that involves the multiphase flow of nanoconfined fluids, however, has lagged, mainly due to the complex nanopore geometries and chemical compositions. To enable benchmarked flow of nanoconfined fluids, the architected geomaterials, such as synthesized mesoporous silica with tunable pore shapes and surface chemical properties, are used for designing and conducting experiments and simulations. This work uses a modified many-body dissipative particle dynamics (mDPD) model with accurately calibrated parameters to perform parametric flow simulations for studying the influences of waterflooding driven power, pore shape, surface roughness, and surface wettability on the multiphase flow in heptane-saturated silica nanochannels. Remarkably, up to 80\% reduction in the effective permeability is found for water-driven heptane flow in a baseline 4.5 nm-wide slit channel, when compared with the Hagen–Poiseuille equation. In the 4.5 nm-wide channels with architected surface roughness, the flow rate is found either higher or lower than the baseline case, depending on the shape and size of cross-sections. High wettability of the solid surface to water is essential for achieving high recovery of heptane, regardless of surface roughness. When the solid surface is less wetting or non-wetting to water, the existence of an optimal waterflooding driven power is found to allow for the highest possible recovery. A detailed analysis on the evolution of the transient water-heptane interface in those nanochannels is presented to elucidate the underlying mechanisms that impact or dictate the multiphase flow behaviors.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Strong Upper-Plate Heterogeneity at the Hikurangi Subduction Margin (North Island, New Zealand) Imaged by Adjoint Tomography

We use earthquake-based adjoint tomography to invert for three-dimensional structure of the North Island, New Zealand, and the adjacent Hikurangi subduction zone. The study area, having a shallow depth to the plate interface below the North Island, offers a rare opportunity for imaging material properties at an active subduction zone using land-based measurements. Starting from an initial model derived using ray tomography, we perform iterative model updates using spectral element and adjoint simulations to fit waveforms with periods ranging from 4–30 s. We perform 28 model updates using an L-BFGS optimization algorithm, improving data fit and introducing P- and S-wave velocity changes of up to ±30%. Resolution analysis using point spread functions show that our measurements are most sensitive to heterogeneities in the upper 30 km. The most striking velocity changes coincide with areas related to the active Hikurangi subduction zone. Lateral velocity structures in the upper 5 km correlate well with New Zealand geology. Here, the inversion reveals increased along-strike heterogeneity on the margin. In Cook Strait we observe a low-velocity zone interpreted as deep sedimentary basins. In the central North Island, low-velocity anomalies are linked to surface geology, and we relate velocity structures at depth to crustal magmatic activity below the Taupō Volcanic Zone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multiwell Fiber Optic Sensing Reveals Effects of CO2 Flow on Triggered Seismicity

Induced seismicity is one of the main risks for gigaton-scale geological storage of carbon dioxide (⁠CO 2 ⁠). Thus, passive seismic monitoring is often recommended as a necessary component of the monitoring systems for CO 2 storage projects, with a particular forcus on risk mitigation. We present the first field study, CO2CRC Otway Project Stage 3 (Victoria, Australia), where distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) enabled high-precision tracking of the induced seismicity triggered by a small CO 2 injection and also informed the reservoir models. In 610 days of passive seismic monitoring of the Stage 3 injection, we detected 17 microseismic events (maximum moment magnitude Mw 0.1) using five deep boreholes equipped with enhanced-sensitivity optical fiber. The DAS array has sensitivity sufficient for detection and location of induced events with M w ~ ₋2 in a monitoring borehole located up to 1500 m away. Thanks to the dense spatial sampling by the DAS, we were able to estimate the focal mechanisms for events with M w > ₋1.5; although the monitoring boreholes provided very limited angular coverage. The main cluster of the events has the same location and source mechanism as the one triggered by the previous CO 2 injection at the Otway Project site, Stage 2C. Surprizingly, the Stage 2C and Stage 3 events closely followed the actual movement of the CO 2 saturation plume front (not the pressure front), as observed using controlled-source reflection seismic images. The nature of the plume-fault interaction remains unclear, but some alteration of the fault gouge by CO 2 might be responsible for the faults’ reactivation by the pressure perturbation. Importantly, the seismogenic fault could not be identified in the seismic images and was only revealed by DAS observations, which also demonstrated the signature of fluid–rock interaction, that may control the CO 2 flow.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Expedition UT-GOM2-2 Summary

In the summer and fall of 2023, the University of Texas (UT) Deepwater Hydrate Coring Expedition (UT-GOM2-2) drilled, cored, made downhole measurements, and analyzed samples from the seafloor to the base of the gas hydrate stability zone at Site H, in the Walker Ridge Protracted Area Block 313 (Site H, WR313), in the Terrebonne Basin, deepwater Gulf of America (Gulf of Mexico). Analyses of data and samples from the expedition will inform biological, geochemical, and geomechanical models to constrain the role of gas hydrates in the carbon cycle and the potential for gas hydrates as an energy resource.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multiscale formulation of frictional contact mechanics at the pore scale

Direct numerical simulation (DNS) yields the highest fidelity predictions of mechanical deformation at the pore scale, but is prohibitively expensive for analyzing large or many samples. Discrete element methods (DEM) are an efficient alternative, but are limited to granular media and incapable of estimating or controlling prediction errors. We present a pore-level multiscale method (PLMM) that approximates DNS efficiently and with controllable accuracy. We focus on the linear elastic response of a consolidated geologic porous medium with arbitrary microstructure, heterogeneous mineralogy, containing cracks or defects. PLMM decomposes the solid phase into non-overlapping subdomains, on which local basis functions are constructed. The bases are then coupled with a global interface problem that accounts for slip or stick contact conditions between the subdomains. PLMM produces an initial, but accurate, approximation to DNS that can be iteratively improved. It is amenable to parallelism and allows for different mesh, models, and physics in each subdomain. An algebraic interpretation of PLMM as a preconditioner is also presented to allow non-intrusive implementation into existing solvers. Lastly, this work extends previous developments of PLMM in fluid dynamics to solid mechanics and enables future extensions towards modeling coupled flow and mechanics problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fluid migration in low-permeability faults driven by decoupling of fault slip and opening

Understanding the response of faults to the injection of high-pressure fluids is important for several subsurface applications, for example, geologic carbon sequestration or energy storage. Lab-based experiments suggest that fluid injection can activate fault slip and that this slip can lead to increased fluid transmission along low-permeability faults. Here we present in situ observations from a cross-borehole fluid-injection experiment in a low-permeability shale-bearing fault, which show fault displacement occurring before fluid-pressure build-up. Comparing these observations with numerical models with differing permeability evolution histories, we find that the observed variation in fluid pressure is best explained by a change in permeability only after the fault fails and slips beyond the pressurized area. Once fluid migration occurs along the fault as a result of slip-induced permeability increase, the fault experiences further opening due to a decrease in the effective normal stress. We then suggest that decoupling of fault slip and opening, leading to a rapid increase in fluid pressurization following the initial fault slip, could be an efficient driver for fluid migration in low-permeability faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Semi‐Mechanistic Model for Partitioning Evapotranspiration Reveals Transpiration Dominates the Water Flux in Drylands

Abstract Popular evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning methods make assumptions that might not be well‐suited to dryland ecosystems, such as high sensitivity of plant water‐use efficiency (WUE) to vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Our objectives were to (a) create an ET partitioning model that can produce fine‐scale estimates of transpiration (T) in drylands, and (b) use this approach to evaluate how climate controls T and WUE across ecosystem types and timescales along a dryland aridity gradient. We developed a novel, semi‐mechanistic ET partitioning method using a Bayesian approach that constrains abiotic evaporation using process‐based models, and loosely constrains time‐varying WUE within an autoregressive framework. We used this method to estimate daily T and weekly WUE across seven dryland ecosystem types and found that T dominates ET across the aridity gradient. Then, we applied cross‐wavelet coherence analysis to evaluate the temporal coherence between focal response variables (WUE and T/ET) and environmental variables. At yearly scales, we found that WUE at less arid, higher elevation sites was primarily limited by atmospheric moisture demand, and WUE at more arid, lower elevation sites was primarily limited by moisture supply. At sub‐yearly timescales, WUE and VPD were sporadically correlated. Hence, ecosystem‐scale dryland WUE is not always sensitive to changes in VPD at short timescales, despite this being a common assumption in many ET partitioning models. This new ET partitioning method can be used in dryland ecosystems to better understand how climate influences physically and biologically driven water fluxes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning–Assisted Multiobjective Optimization of Geological CO 2 Storage Performance under Geomechanical Risks

In geological CO 2 storage, designing the optimal well control strategy for CO 2 injection to maximize CO 2 storage while minimizing the associated geomechanical risks is not trivial. This challenge arises due to pressure buildup, CO 2 plume migration, the highly nonlinear nature of geomechanical responses to rock-fluid interaction, and the high computational cost associated with coupled flow and geomechanics simulations. In this paper, we introduce a novel optimization framework to address these challenges. The optimization problem is formulated as follows: maximize total CO 2 storage while minimizing geomechanical risks by adjusting the injection schedules within bounded constraints. The geomechanical risks are primarily driven by injection-induced pressure build-up, which is characterized by ground displacement and the induced microseismicity. We used the Fourier neural operator (FNO)-based deep learning model to construct surrogate models, replacing the time-consuming coupled flow and geomechanics simulations for evaluating the aforementioned objective functions. The developed surrogate models have been incorporated into a multiobjective optimization framework through a genetic algorithm to reduce the computational burden. The proposed optimization framework reduces the computational cost from approximately 2,400 hours, when using objective function evaluations based on physics-based simulations, to around 20 minutes. A set of Pareto-optimal solutions of the proposed workflow yields nontrivial optimal decisions, reducing the microseismicity potential and the vertical displacement. This Pareto front highlights the optimal trade-offs between CO 2 storage amount, safety, and ground displacement, emphasizing the need for careful optimization and management of injection strategies to achieve a balanced outcome. The novelty of this work is twofold. First, we demonstrate the importance of incorporating the minimization of the geomechanical risks as objective functions into the CO 2 storage optimization workflow to mitigate the potential risk of induced microseismicity and ground displacement. Second, we leverage the FNO-based surrogate models to optimize a real-field CO 2 storage operation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Thermo-Hydrological-Mechanical-Chemical Behavior of Anisotropic Granite for Geologic Disposal of High-Level Radioactive Waste: A Core-Scale Laboratory Investigation

The coupled thermo-hydrological-mechanical-chemical (THMC) behavior of rock within an Excavation Damaged Zone (EDZ) is critical for the safety and long-term performance of a geological repository for high-level radioactive wastes. While many laboratory experiments have been conducted to investigate EDZ rocks, the flow and deformation characteristics resulting from anisotropic rock textures and microcrack distribution under triaxial loading and elevated temperatures remain poorly understood. Particularly, cracks at various scales serve as fast paths for fluid flow and solute transport and present as focal points of mechanical weakness, which complicate the coupled THMC processes in anisotropic EDZ rocks and challenge modeling predictions. Here, in this study, a series of core-scale experiments was conducted on three granite samples under repository-relevant conditions. These rock samples were obtained from the Grimsel Underground Research Laboratory (URL), featured by anisotropic minerals (represented by bedding layers) and microcrack distributions and coarse cm-scale grain sizes. During the experiments, samples were subjected to an elevated temperature at 90 °C and different triaxial loading conditions either by radial (normal to bedding layers) or axial (parallel to bedding layers) compaction. Water was injected into the samples, and the rock permeability evolutions and effluent water chemistry were monitored closely. For intact samples, thermal expansion of minerals at 90 °C resulted in a large, 75% irreversible permeability reduction and rock strengthening under radial compaction, while thermal impact was limited to a 15% permeability reduction under axial compaction. In contrast, for a sample containing open cracks, the growth of fractures during the experiment resulted in an abrupt permeability increase and fast failure at 90 °C. The effluent water chemistry indicates much more considerable mineral dissolution from large shear sliding than that in rocks dominated by mechanical compaction. These results helped better understand the coupled THMC processes in anisotropic rocks containing cracks, evaluate the behaviors of EDZ rocks, and predict the long-term evolution of EDZ for the performance of the repositories.

Coupled THMC processes↗
DOE OSTI2020

Amanzi–ATS: Modeling Environmental Systems across Scales [Brief]

Department of Energy national labs (Los Alamos, Oak Ridge, Lawrence Berkeley, and Pacific Northwest) designed Amanzi-ATS to model complex environmental systems across multiple scales. The open-source software includes the most complete suite of surface/subsurface processes, allowing users to select physical processes and their coupling interactions without rewriting software. Amanzi–ATS has been used to analyze pristine local watersheds, wildfire impact on watersheds, subsurface contaminant transport at legacy waste sites, the effect of a warming climate on the Arctic tundra, and groundwater in fractured porous media. Department of Energy national labs, U.S. Geological Survey, academia, and industry have applied the software.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tree Canopies Reflect Mycorrhizal Composition

Mycorrhizae alter global patterns of CO 2 fertilization, carbon storage, and elemental cycling, yet knowledge of their global distributions is currently limited by the availability of forest inventory data. Here, we show that maps of tree-mycorrhizal associations (hereafter “mycorrhizal maps”) can be improved by the novel technology of imaging spectroscopy because mycorrhizal signatures propagate up from plant roots to impact forest canopy chemistry. We analyzed measurements from 143 airborne imaging spectroscopy surveys over 112,975 individual trees collected across 13 years. Results show remarkable accuracy in capturing ground truth observations of mycorrhizal associations from canopy signals across disparate landscapes (R 2 = 0.92, p < 0.01). Additionally, upcoming imaging spectroscopy satellite missions can reveal new insights into landscape-scale variations in water, nitrogen, phosphorus, carotenoid/anthocyanin, and cellulose/lignin composition. Applied globally, this approach could improve the spatial precision of mycorrhizal distributions by a factor of roughly 104 and facilitate the incorporation of dynamic shifts in forest composition into Earth system models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Zonal Patterns in Late Quaternary Tropical South American Precipitation

Speleothem oxygen isotope records (δ 18 O) of tropical South American rainfall in the late Quaternary show a zonal “South American Precipitation Dipole” (SAPD). The dipole is characterized by opposing east-west precipitation anomalies compared to the present—wetter in the east and drier in the west at the mid-Holocene (~7 ka), and drier in the east and wetter in the west at the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka). However, the SAPD remains enigmatic because it is expressed differently in western versus eastern δ18O records and isotope-enabled climate model simulations usually misrepresent the magnitude and/or spatial pattern of δ 18 O change. Here, we address the SAPD enigma in two parts. First, we re-interpret the δ 18 O data to account for upwind rainout effects that are known to be pervasive in tropical South America, but are not always considered in Quaternary paleoclimate studies. Our revised interpretation reconciles the δ 18 O data with cave infiltration and other proxy records, and indicates that the centroid of tropical South American rainfall has migrated zonally over time. Second, using an energy balance model of tropical atmospheric circulation, we hypothesize that zonal migration of the precipitation centroid can be explained by regional energy budget shifts, such as changing Saharan albedo associated with the African Humid Period, that have not been modeled in previous SAPD studies. This hypothesis of a migrating precipitation centroid presents a new framework for interpreting δ18O records from tropical South America and may help explain the zonal rainfall anomalies that predate the late Quaternary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved dryland carbon flux predictions with explicit consideration of water-carbon coupling

Dryland ecosystems are dominant influences on both the trend and interannual variability of the terrestrial carbon sink. Despite their importance, dryland carbon dynamics are not well-characterized by current models. Here, we present DryFlux, an upscaled product built on a dense network of eddy covariance sites in the North American Southwest. To estimate dryland gross primary productivity, we fuse in situ fluxes with remote sensing and meteorological observations using machine learning. DryFlux explicitly accounts for intra-annual variation in water availability, and accurately predicts interannual and seasonal variability in carbon uptake. Applying DryFlux globally indicates existing products may underestimate impacts of large-scale climate patterns on the interannual variability of dryland carbon uptake. We anticipate DryFlux will be an improved benchmark for earth system models in drylands, and prompt a more sensitive accounting of water limitation on the carbon cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods and system for siting advanced nuclear reactors and evaluating energy policy concerns

There is a growing sociopolitical desire to develop cleaner energy sources in the United States and maintain energy security. Regardless of politics, many coal-fired electric plants have already been shut down and many utilities are vowing to retire their current coal-fired assets within the next two decades. Replacement power assets require consideration of appropriate siting. A geographic information system (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis approach is useful to assist utility and energy companies, as well as policymakers, to evaluate potential areas for siting new plants in the contiguous United States. A GIS-based framework is simply a database of location information that allows for mapping, querying, modeling, and analyzing data based on location. The spatial output can be structured to be visual, allowing for easier analysis of location data. The need to site additional power assets, including renewable resources and clean power sources, such as nuclear, led to the development of the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion (OR-SAGE) tool discussed in this paper. The tool takes inputs such as population growth, water availability, environmental indicators, and tectonic and geological hazards to provide an in-depth visual analysis for siting options. Energy companies and other stakeholders can use OR-SAGE to procure feedback quickly and effectively on land suitability based on technology specific inputs. Policymakers can use OR-SAGE to analyze the impacts of future energy technology decisions, while balancing competing resource use. Overall, this paper discusses the recent use of OR-SAGE for these purposes and plans for future development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

3D Simulations of gas injection on callovo-oxfordian claystone assuming spatial heterogeneity and anisotropy

A series of gas injection tests on Callovo-Oxfordian (COx) claystone from the Bure underground research laboratory (URL) in France were carried out at the British Geological Survey (BGS). The tests were performed using a triaxial apparatus specifically designed to capture small volumetric strains induced by the injected gas flow and consequent material dilatancy. The long-duration experiments were monitored throughout. Measurements also included pressure, stresses (axial and radial stresses prescribed for each test stage), rate of gas inflow, gas outflow volume as well as pore-pressures observed at various points of the sample. A coupled hydro-gas-mechanical 3D numerical model has been developed to simulate the tests. Initial permeability is assumed heterogeneous throughout the specimen and embedded fractures are incorporated in the formulation. Gas pressure-induced deformations during the test lead to variations of permeability due to changes in matrix porosity and, especially, fracture aperture as well as fracture orientation due to material anisotropy. A programme of sensitivity analyses involving the variation of different aspects and parameters of the model contributes to a better understanding of the phenomena and highlights its complexity. The model is able to reproduce the observed behaviour of the tests.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Projecting Permafrost Thaw of Sub-Arctic Tundra With a Thermodynamic Model Calibrated to Site Measurements

Northern circumpolar permafrost thaw affects global carbon cycling, as large amounts of stored soil carbon becomes accessible to microbial breakdown under a warming climate. The magnitude of carbon release is linked to the extent of permafrost thaw, which is locally variable and controlled by soil thermodynamics. Soil thermodynamic properties, such as thermal diffusivity, govern the reactivity of the soil-atmosphere thermal gradient, and are controlled by soil composition and drainage. In order to project permafrost thaw for an Alaskan tundra experimental site, we used seven years of site data to calibrate a soil thermodynamic model using a data assimilation technique. The model reproduced seasonal and interannual temperature dynamics for shallow (5–40 cm) and deep soil layers (2–4 m), and simulations of seasonal thaw depth closely matched observed data. The model was then used to project permafrost thaw at the site to the year 2100 using climate forcing data for three future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Minimal permafrost thawing occurred until mean annual air temperatures rose above the freezing point, after which we measured over a 1 m increase in thaw depth for every 1 °C rise in mean annual air temperature. Under no projected warming scenario was permafrost remaining in the upper 3 m of soil by 2100. We demonstrated an effective data assimilation method that optimizes parameterization of a soil thermodynamic model. The sensitivity of local permafrost to climate warming illustrates the vulnerability of sub-Arctic tundra ecosystems to significant and rapid soil thawing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗