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Development of an OSSE Framework for a Global Atmospheric Data Assimilation System

Observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are powerful tools for estimating the usefulness of various configurations of envisioned observing systems and data assimilation techniques. Their utility stems from their being conducted in an entirely simulated context, utilizing simulated observations having simulated errors and drawn from a simulation of the earth's environment. Observations are generated by applying physically based algorithms to the simulated state, such as performed during data assimilation or using other appropriate algorithms. Adding realistic instrument plus representativeness errors, including their biases and correlations, can be critical for obtaining realistic assessments of the impact of a proposed observing system or analysis technique. If estimates of the expected accuracy of proposed observations are realistic, then the OSSE can be also used to learn how best to utilize the new information, accelerating its transition to operations once the real data are available. As with any inferences from simulations, however, it is first imperative that some baseline OSSEs are performed and well validated against corresponding results obtained with a real observing system. This talk provides an overview of, and highlights critical issues related to, the development of an OSSE framework for the tropospheric weather prediction component of the NASA GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation system. The framework includes all existing observations having significant impact on short-term forecast skill. Its validity has been carefully assessed using a range of metrics that can be evaluated in both the OSSE and real contexts, including adjoint-based estimates of observation impact. A preliminary application to the Aeolus Doppler wind lidar mission, scheduled for launch by the European Space Agency in 2014, has also been investigated.

Gelaro, Ronald↗

Exercise Countermeasures for Bone Loss During Space Flight: A Method for the Study of Ground Reaction Forces and their Implications for Bone Strain

Effective countermeasures to prevent loss of bone mineral during long duration space flight remain elusive. Despite an exercise program on MIR flights, the data from LeBlanc et al. (1996) indicated that there was still a mean rate of loss of bone mineral density in the proximal femur of 1.58% per month (n=18, flight duration 4 - 14.4 months). The specific mechanisms regulating bone mass are not known, but most investigators agree that bone maintenance is largely dependent upon mechanical demand and the resultant local bone strains. A plausible hypothesis is that bone loss during space flight, such as that reported by LeBlanc et al. (1996), may result from failure to effectively load the skeleton in order to generate localized bone strains of sufficient magnitude to prevent disuse osteoporosis. A variety of methods have been proposed to simulate locomotor exercise in reduced gravity. In such simulations, and in an actual microgravity environment, a gravity replacement load (GRL) must always be added to return the exercising subject to the support surface and the resulting skeletal load is critically dependent upon the magnitude of the GRL. To our knowledge, GRLs during orbital flight have only been measured once (on STS 81) and it is likely that most or all prior treadmill exercise in space has used GRLs that were less than one body weight. McCrory (1997) has shown that subjects walking and running in simulated zero-G can tolerate GRLs of 1 if an appropriate harness is used. Several investigators have attempted to measure in vivo strains and forces in the bones of humans, but have faced ethical and technical limitations. The anteromedial aspect of the tibial midshaft has been a common site for the placement of strain gauges; one reason to measure strains in the anterior tibia is that this region is surgically accessible. Aamodt et al. (1997) were able to measure strains on the lateral surface of the proximal femur only because their experimental subjects were already scheduled for hip surgery. Lu et al. (1997) used an instrumented massive proximal femoral prosthesis along with electromyographic measurements to demonstrate that femoral forces depend on muscular activity. These analyses of in vivo bone mechanics are valuable. The invasive nature of the procedures involved, however, limits both the number of subjects and the number of strain gauge locations. Further, the results of these studies may be confounded by the inclusion of subjects with pathological conditions. Gross et al. (1992) measured strain at three locations on the equine third metacarpal and used those data to construct a computer model of the internal strain environment of the bone. An analogous placement of multiple gauges in living humans would be difficult and potentially hazardous because of the depth of soft tissue overlying the tibia and femur.

Peterman, M.↗

Estimation of Timing Performance with Pulsed Laser Links for Small Satellite PNT

Satellite constellations are growing in size and in utility for applications as diverse as providing reliable, low-latency internet service to rural areas orEarth science missions.This expansion of satellite constellations brings attention to the need for responsive and reliable satellite communication.Current research in the PrecisionSpace Systems Laboratory at the University of Florida focuses on using pulsed laser communications as the method of relaying time signals instead of the radio frequency (RF)signals.The upcoming CLICK (CubeSat Laser Infrared CrosslinK) missions (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, University of Florida, NASA Ames Research Center) will demonstrate a spacecraft-to-spacecraft laser communication link and time-transfer.For pre-flight technology assessment of missions such as CLICK, a simulation of a spacecraft constellation in Earth orbit has been created to estimate clock synchronization and precision orbit determination based on measured instrumentation performance.We have developed a novel MATLAB-based numerical simulator to model spacecraft-to-spacecraft laser time-transfer and estimate the offset between the spacecraft clocks over time.This simulation includes timing errors associated with laser pulse generation and detection, as well as non-Gaussian clock drift models.The two on-board clocks modeled are a cesium-based Chip-Scale Atomic Clock (CSAC) and a rubidium-based Miniature Atomic Clock (MAC), both produced by Microchip.An example case of two spacecraft in a circular, low-Earth orbit receiving GPS position, GPS timing, and laser pulse time-of-flight measurements is simulated.The positions and velocities of the two spacecraft at a reference epoch and the constant clock model coefficients are estimated.Polynomial models of different orders were used as clock models. The effect of clock model order on the root-mean-square (RMS) of the clock error is apparent in the case using GPS and lasing measurements, showing that the clock model improves with increasing clock model order. Results compare the estimated clock model of a mission operation that only uses GPS measurements and a mission operation that uses both GPS and laser pulse time-of-flight measurements between spacecraft referenced to their on-board CSACs or on-board MACs. Including lasing measurements reduces the RMS clock model error by approximately 80% of the RMS of the cases with only GPS measurements.This simulation tool can be used to optimize the lasing operations schedule based on mission timing performance objectives. During this presentation, I will discuss the details of the simulation and clock model estimation, as well as discuss the results.I will compare the results of incorporating lasing timing measurements to using only GPS measurements and the outcomes of using different orders of polynomials.

Timing Performance↗

Formed platelet combustor liner construction feasibility, phase A

Environments generated in high pressure liquid rocket engines impose severe requirements on regeneratively cooled combustor liners. Liners fabricated for use in high chamber pressures using conventional processes suffer from limitations that can impair operational cycle life and can adversely affect wall compatibility. Chamber liners fabricated using formed platelet technology provide an alternative to conventional regeneratively cooled liners (an alternative that has many attractive benefits). A formed platelet liner is made from a stacked assembly of platelets with channel features. The assembly is diffusion bonded into a flat panel and then three-dimensionally formed into a section of a chamber. Platelet technology permits the liner to have very precisely controlled and thin hot gas walls and therefore increased heat transfer efficiency. Further cooling efficiencies can be obtained through enhanced design flexibility. These advantages translate into increased cycle life and enhanced wall compatibility. The increased heat transfer efficiency can alternately be used to increase engine performance or turbopump life as a result of pressure drop reductions within the regeneratively cooled liner. Other benefits can be obtained by varying the materials of construction within the platelet liner to enhance material compatibility with operating environment or with adjoining components. Manufacturing cost savings are an additional benefit of a formed platelet liner. This is because of reduced touch labor and reduced schedule when compared to conventional methods of manufacture. The formed platelet technology is not only compatible with current state-of-the art combustion chamber structural support and manifolding schemes, it is also an enabling technology that allows the use of other high performance and potentially low cost methods of construction for the entire combustion chamber assembly. The contract under which this report is submitted contains three phases: (1) phase A - feasibility study and technology development; (2) phase B - sub-scale fabrication feasibility; and (3) phase C - large scale fabrication validation. This report covers the Phase A activities, which began in December of 1988.

Hayes, W. A.↗

Assessing Relay Communications for Mars Sample Return Surface Mission Concepts

The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign would be a 3-mission campaign concept supported by NASA and ESA to return samples from the Mars surface. MSR would, for the first time ever, present a need to communicate with multiple surface assets that are co-located on Mars in a coordinated effort to accomplish the unified objective of fetching, transporting, and returning samples from Mars. Currently, Mars surface assets relay data to and from Earth using a number of orbiters in what’s known as the Mars Relay Network (MRN). This network is characterized by a small number of surface assets distributed across the Martian globe and a larger number of orbiters to provide relay services. As of June 2020, there are two surface assets for which five orbiters are providing relay. During the MSR Campaign, there would be two rovers and a lander that all would require relay communication from a small number of Mars orbiters to meet the aggressive MSR timeline. The inversion of the current MRN paradigm, a system of many surface assets requiring relay and few orbiters to provide relay, necessitates the unique challenge of optimally allocating relay passes to maximize the operational capability of all assets. The allocation must consider a large number of trade variables including Mars asset operational requirements and Earth ground system constraints, including staffing schedules, operations planning across time zones, and more. To address these telecommunication challenges, the Mars Asset Relay Mission Link Allocation Design Environment (MARMLADE) tool was developed. It is a MATLAB-based tool to assign orbiter passes or Direct-From-Earth (DFE) links to each of the three surface assets and quantify the operational efficiency of each surface asset.MARMLADE uses a data set of simulated Mars relay orbiter geometry and telecommunication capabilities provided by JPL’s Telecom Orbit Analysis and Simulation Tool (TOAST) software to compute which asset should get each pass based on a series of heuristics and predictions of all assets’ states. Within MARMLADE, the user can provide inputs including the option for time-based pass splitting, fixed FWD data rate capabilities, DFE communication capabilities, and link parameters allowing for the assessment of complex operations and hardware trades using surface mission operational efficiency as a primary figure of merit. As the MSR mission concepts continue to mature, MARMLADE is being used to assess ability of all MSR elements to meet the surface mission timeline requirements and to provide relay link allocations to each of the MSR surface assets.This paper will describe the motivation and design of the MARMLADE tool and how it is being used to perform campaign and mission level trades, generate requirements, and support development of the MSR surface mission scenarios.

Lee, Charles↗

Space Transformation -- Localizing the Remote and Connecting the Isolated

In motivating the Space Transformation theme for this year’s 4S symposium, the organizers provided the following context, “Transformation of economies are driven by a change in values and accelerated by new technologies.” These words rang particularly true when I read them at the beginning of the holiday season. Like so many others, I was in the early phases of my Christmas shopping procrastination campaign, and I’d just been reflecting on how Amazon Prime was the transformational tool I’d been waiting for. Basic limiting principles of time and space, supply and demand, were all but erased by the Amazon Prime phenomenon. Coupled with emerging 3D printing and other adaptive manufacturing technologies, a transformation from deliberate planning to “think it … have it” had occurred, empowering me to procrastinate longer than I’d ever dreamed possible. The organizers went on to ponder, “Will space transformation also affect society?”, just as our team at the Air Force Research Lab’s (AFRL) Center for Rapid Innovation (CRI) were working alongside partners within our larger Integrated Capabilities Directorate, NASA’s Flight Opportunities and Small Spacecraft Technology programs, and DARPA’s Luna-10 program to develop technologies and execute demonstration missions that leverage the space domain to genuinely connect even the most remote and austere domains on the timeline of need. Picking apart the miracle that is Amazon prime, where does the model fail, and why? More relevantly to the theme of this year’s symposium, how can the space domain be used to overcome its limitations and minimize its weaknesses? Perhaps it is best assessed in the context of Use Cases. What are the Amazon delivery cost, schedule, and cargo limiters to the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Research Station, or the Lunar South Pole Research Station? This paper will explore enabling infrastructure that allows Amazon prime to thrive and assess the transformational enabling technologies that would be necessary to extend that miracle to the truly remote or the truly austere. Localizing the Remote • First, it will evaluate the ability of the on-going AFRL Rocket Cargo and Space Initiatives Ringside Seats systems, coupled with Astrobotic’s Xodiak and Xogdor capabilities, developed to support the NASA Flight Opportunities Program (FOP), to supply orbital/suborbital delivery to both improved and austere sites on the Earth and Moon. • Then, it will add the surface terminal distribution leg, with an examination of Lunar Outpost’s Mobile Autonomous Prospecting Platform (MAPP), equipped with Mobile Autonomous Robotic Swarm (MARS) software, and Intuitive Machine’s Hopper, developed with support of AFRL and NASA’s Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program. Connecting the Isolated From there, it will focus on the destination, asking what implied destination services are required to support highly assured autonomous delivery. • Specifically, it will highlight Astrobotic’s Skymage mesh-networked publish and subscribe communication and navigation service, as well as AFRL’s on-going developments of radioisotope and reactor nuclear-sourced thermoelectric power generation and distribution systems under development under the Joint Emergent Technology Supplying On-orbit Nuclear Power (JETSON) program by Lockheed Martin, Westinghouse, Intuitive Machines, and Zeno Power, to provide the power service to locations well off the grid. • Finally, the paper will connect to the “human machine”. What connects the remote or in-situ human consumer to the remote domain? What connects the diverse international government and commercial services to each other? The former will focus on AFRL’s OraCloud feeding their Space Defense Control and Characterization System (SDCCS) and Lunar Station’s MoonHacker systems, while the latter will focus on the BlueHalo/Tensor LunX Technology Platform for the Cislunar Commodity Marketplace. In 1984, Krafft Ehricke famously remarked that, “If God wanted man to become a spacefaring species, He would have given man a Moon.” This paper is not about the Moon, but is about humans as a spacefaring species, shedding the pesky land/air limitations of the Amazon Prime model … so that we can all live a procrastinator’s “think it … have it” existence.

Charles Finley↗

The Space Technology 7 disturbance reduction system

The NASA New Millennium Program Space Technology 7 (ST7) project was selected for the purpose of flight validation of technology for minimizing disturbances on spacecraft and freely-floating test masses. Measurements of the motion of test masses are used for determining the gravitational field in its location, providing information on the nearby mass distribution or looking gravitational waves generated by distant star systems. Any unmeasured forces acting on the test mass cause a deviation from a purely gravitational trajectory and so limit the accuracy of the gravity field estimation. The ST7 project will validate the capability to eliminate unwanted forces to a level 3000 times lower than the current state of the art. The ST7 design is based on the concept of a freely-floating test mass surrounded by a spacecraft which shields the test mass from unwanted disturbances. since some disturbance of the test mass can be caused by motion of the spacecraft itself with respect to the test mass, the disturbance reduction system includes the capability of precisely measuring the position of the spacecraft with respect to the test mass and control of the spacecraft position to within 1/100 of a wavelength of light.. The overall system performance of the ST7 project will be infused into space observatories for gravitational waves such as the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna project, and into future mission for mapping the time-variable Earth gravity field. The ST7 precision control capability also has applications for separated-spacecraft interferometric imaging projects. ST7 will consist of an instrument package and a set of microthrusters, which will be attached to the European Space Agency’s LISA Pathfinder spacecraft with launch scheduled for 2008.

Folkner, W. M.↗

Design and Performance of the PALM-3000 3.5 kHz Upgrade

PALM-3000 (P3K), the second-generation adaptive optics (AO) instrument for the 5.1 meter Hale telescope atPalomar Observatory, was released as a facility class instrument in October 2011 and has since been used on-skyfor over 600 nights as a workhorse science instrument and testbed for coronagraph and detector development.In late 2019 P3K underwent a significant upgrade to its wavefront sensor (WFS) arm and real-time control(RTC) system to reinforce its position as a state-of-the-art AO facility and extend its faint-end capability forhigh-resolution imaging and precision radial velocity follow-up of Kepler and TESS targets. The main featuresof this upgrade include an EM-CCD WFS camera capable of 3.5 kHz framerates, and an advanced Digital SignalProcessor (DSP) based RTC system to replace the aging GPU based system. Similar to the pre-upgrade system,the Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor supports multiple pupil sampling modes using a motorized lenslet stage.The default sampling mode with 64×64 subapertures has been re-commissioned on-sky in late 2019, witha successful return to science observations in November 2019. In 64×mode the upgraded system is alreadyachieving K-band Strehl ratios up to 85% on-sky and can lock on natural guide stars as faint as mV=16. A16×16 subaperture mode is scheduled for on-sky commissioning in Fall 2020 and will extend the system’s faintlimit even further. Here we present the design and on-sky re-commissioning results of the upgraded system,dubbed P3K-II.

Vasisht, Gautam↗

Advanced Communication and Networking Technologies for Mars Exploration

Next-generation Mars communications networks will provide communications and navigation services to a wide variety of Mars science vehicles including: spacecraft that are arriving at Mars, spacecraft that are entering and descending in the Mars atmosphere, scientific orbiter spacecraft, spacecraft that return Mars samples to Earth, landers, rovers, aerobots, airplanes, and sensing pods. In the current architecture plans, the communication services will be provided using capabilities deployed on the science vehicles as well as dedicated communication satellites that will together make up the Mars network. This network will evolve as additional vehicles arrive, depart or end their useful missions. Cost savings and increased reliability will result from the ability to share communication services between missions. This paper discusses the basic architecture that is needed to support the Mars Communications Network part of NASA's Space Science Enterprise (SSE) communications architecture. The network may use various networking technologies such as those employed in the terrestrial Internet, as well as special purpose deep-space protocols to move data and commands autonomously between vehicles, at disparate Mars vicinity sites (on the surface or in near-Mars space) and between Mars vehicles and earthbound users. The architecture of the spacecraft on-board local communications is being reconsidered in light of these new networking requirements. The trend towards increasingly autonomous operation of the spacecraft is aimed at reducing the dependence on resource scheduling provided by Earth-based operators and increasing system fault tolerance. However, these benefits will result in increased communication and software development requirements. As a result, the envisioned Mars communications infrastructure requires both hardware and protocol technology advancements. This paper will describe a number of the critical technology needs and some of the ongoing research activities.

Bhasin, Kul↗

Dual-purpose self-deliverable lunar surface PV electrical power system

A safe haven and work supported PV power systems on the lunar surface will likely be required by NASA in support of the manned outpost scheduled for the post-2000 lunar/Mars exploration and colonization initiative. Initial system modeling and computer analysis shows that the concept is workable and contains no major high risk technology issues which cannot be resolved in the circa 2000 to 2025 timeframe. A specific selection of the best suited type of electric thruster has not been done; the initial modeling was done using an ion thruster, but Rocketdyne must also evaluate arc and resisto-jets before a final design can be formulated. As a general observation, it appears that such a system can deliver itself to the Moon using many system elements that must be transported as dead payload mass in more conventional delivery modes. It further appears that a larger power system providing a much higher safe haven power level is feasible if this delivery system is implemented, perhaps even sufficient to permit resource prospecting and/or lab experimentation. The concept permits growth and can be expanded to include cargo transport such as habitat and working modules. In short, the combined payload could be manned soon after landing and checkout. NASA has expended substantial resources in the development of electric propulsion concepts and hardware that can be applied to a lunar transport system such as described herein. In short, the paper may represent a viable mission on which previous investments play an invaluable role. A more comprehensive technical paper which embodies second generation analysis and system size will be prepared for near-term presentation.

Arnold, Jack H.↗

Shadow Evaluation of the ATD-2 Phase 3Trajectory Option Set Reroute Capability in the North Texas Metroplex

This paper presents results of NASA’s Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 Phase 3 Trajectory Option Set reroute capability designed to resolve a demand capacity imbalance along the terminal airspace boundary. We focus on Candidate flights generated during the Stormy 2020 Shadow Evaluation which was the result of using the system to passively collect predictions for each flight at the OUT event. Benefit metrics associated with the predictions are defined for the individual rerouted flight and also the system-wide savings. Candidate flights are grouped into three distinct use cases and the benefit mechanism is explained for each use case along with illustrative data. Analysis of the different use cases shed light on the underlying causes of the reroute opportunities. Lessons learned from the Stormy 2020 Shadow Evaluation including the importance of reroutes during recovery from Severe Weather Avoidance Programs and also reroutes in the absence of terminal airspace constraints will be incorporated into the Phase 3 Field Evaluation in 2021 to maximize reroute opportunities.

Airspace Technology Demonstration 2↗

Separation of circadian and wake duration-dependent modulation of EEG activation during wakefulness

The separate contribution of circadian rhythmicity and elapsed time awake on electroencephalographic (EEG) activity during wakefulness was assessed. Seven men lived in an environmental scheduling facility for 4 weeks and completed fourteen 42.85-h 'days', each consisting of an extended (28.57-h) wake episode and a 14.28-h sleep opportunity. The circadian rhythm of plasma melatonin desynchronized from the 42.85-h day. This allowed quantification of the separate contribution of circadian phase and elapsed time awake to variation in EEG power spectra (1-32 Hz). EEG activity during standardized behavioral conditions was markedly affected by both circadian phase and elapsed time awake in an EEG frequency- and derivation-specific manner. The nadir of the circadian rhythm in alpha (8-12 Hz) activity in both fronto-central and occipito-parietal derivations occurred during the biological night, close to the crest of the melatonin rhythm. The nadir of the circadian rhythm of theta (4.5-8 Hz) and beta (20-32 Hz) activity in the fronto-central derivation was located close to the onset of melatonin secretion, i.e. during the wake maintenance zone. As time awake progressed, delta frequency (1-4.5 Hz) and beta (20-32 Hz) activity rose monotonically in frontal derivations. The interaction between the circadian and wake-dependent increase in frontal delta was such that the intrusion of delta was minimal when sustained wakefulness coincided with the biological day, but pronounced during the biological night. Our data imply that the circadian pacemaker facilitates frontal EEG activation during the wake maintenance zone, by generating an arousal signal that prevents the intrusion of low-frequency EEG components, the propensity for which increases progressively during wakefulness.

Non-NASA Center↗

Systems engineering studies of on-orbit assembly operation

While the practice of construction has a long history, the underlying theory of construction is relatively young. Very little has been documented as to techniques of logistic support, construction planning, construction scheduling, construction testing, and inspection. The lack of 'systems approaches' to construction processes is certainly one of the most serious roadblocks to the construction of space structures. System engineering research efforts at CSC are aimed at developing concepts and tools which contribute to a systems theory of space construction. The research is also aimed at providing means for trade-offs of design parameters for other research areas in CSC. Systems engineering activity at CSC has divided space construction into the areas of orbital assembly, lunar base construction, interplanetary transport vehicle construction, and Mars base construction. A brief summary of recent results is given. Several models for 'launch-on-time' were developed. Launch-on-time is a critical concept to the assembly of such Earth-orbiting structures as the Space Station Freedom, and to planetary orbiters such as the Mars transfer vehicle. CSC has developed a launch vehicle selection model which uses linear programming to find optimal combinations of launch vehicles of various sizes (Atlas, Titan, Shuttles, HLLV's) to support SEI missions. Recently, the Center developed a cost trade-off model for studying on orbit assembly logistics. With this model it was determined that the most effective size of the HLLV would be in the range of 120 to 200 metric tons to LEO, which is consistent with the choices of General Stafford's Synthesis Group Report. A second-generation Dynamic Construction Activities Model ('DYCAM') process model has been under development, based on our past results in interruptability and our initial DYCAM model. This second-generation model is built on the paradigm of knowledge-based expert systems. It is aimed at providing answers to two questions: (1) what are some necessary or sufficient conditions for judging conceptual designs of spacecraft?, and (2) can a methodology be formulated such that these conditions may be used to provide computer-aided tools for evaluating conceptual designs and planning for space assembly sequences? Early simulation results indicate that the DYCAM model has a clear ability to emulate and simulate human orbital construction processes.

Morgenthaler, George W.↗

An Overview of the Mid-Infrared Spectro-Interferometer MATISSE: Science, Concept, and Current Status

MATISSE is the second-generation mid-infrared spectrograph and imager for the Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI) at Paranal. This new interferometric instrument will allow significant advances by opening new avenues in various fundamental research fields: studying the planet-forming region of disks around young stellar objects, understanding the surface structures and mass loss phenomena affecting evolved stars, and probing the environments of black holes in active galactic nuclei. As a first breakthrough, MATISSE will enlarge the spectral domain of current optical interferometers by offering the L and M bands in addition to the N band. This will open a wide wavelength domain, ranging from 2.8 to 13 microns, exploring angular scales as small as 3 mas (L band) 10 mas (N band). As a second breakthrough, MATISSE will allow mid-infrared imaging - closure-phase aperture-synthesis imaging - with up to four Unit Telescopes (UT) or Auxiliary Telescopes (AT) of the VLTI. Moreover, MATISSE will offer a spectral resolution range from R approx. 30 to R approx. 5000. Here, we present one of the main science objectives, the study of protoplanetary disks, that has driven the instrument design and motivated several VLTI upgrades (GRA4MAT and NAOMI). We introduce the physical concept of MATISSE including a description of the signal on the detectors and an evaluation of the expected performances. We also discuss the current status of the MATISSE instrument, which is entering its testing phase, and the foreseen schedule for the next two years that will lead to the first light at Paranal.

interferometric instrument↗

Titan Science with the James Webb Space Telescope

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), scheduled for launch in 2018, is the successor to the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) but with a signicantly larger aperture (6.5 m) and advanced instrumentation focusing on infrared science (0.6-28.0 microns). In this paper, we examine the potential for scientic investigation of Titan using JWST, primarily with three of the four instruments: NIRSpec, NIRCam, and MIRI, noting that science with NIRISS will be complementary. Five core scientic themes are identied: (1) surface (2) tropospheric clouds (3) tropospheric gases (4) stratospheric composition, and (5) stratospheric hazes. We discuss each theme in depth, including the scientic purpose, capabilities, and limitations of the instrument suite and suggested observing schemes. We pay particular attention to saturation, which is a problem for all three instruments, but may be alleviated for NIRCam through use of selecting small sub-arrays of the detectorssufcient to encompass Titan, but with signicantly faster readout times. We nd that JWST has very signicant potential for advancing Titan science, with a spectral resolution exceeding the Cassini instrument suite at near-infrared wavelengths and a spatial resolution exceeding HST at the same wavelengths. In particular, JWST will be valuable for time-domain monitoring of Titan, given a ve- to ten-year expected lifetime for the observatory, for example, monitoring the seasonal appearance of clouds. JWST observations in the post-Cassini period will complement those of other large facilities such as HST, ALMA, SOFIA, and next-generation ground-based telescopes (TMT, GMT, EELT).

Nixon, Conor A.↗

A Virtual Laboratory for Aviation and Airspace Prognostics Research

Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), autonomy, spacecraft, and other aviation technologies, in the airspace is becoming more and more complicated, and will continue to do so in the future. Inclusion of new technology and complexity into the airspace increases the importance and difficulty of safety assurance. Additionally, testing new technologies on complex aviation systems and systems of systems can be challenging, expensive, and at times unsafe when implementing real life scenarios. The application of prognostics to aviation and airspace management may produce new tools and insight into these problems. Prognostic methodology provides an estimate of the health and risks of a component, vehicle, or airspace and knowledge of how that will change over time. That measure is especially useful in safety determination, mission planning, and maintenance scheduling. In our research, we develop a live, distributed, hardware- in-the-loop Prognostics Virtual Laboratory testbed for aviation and airspace prognostics. The developed testbed will be used to validate prediction algorithms for the real-time safety monitoring of the National Airspace System (NAS) and the prediction of unsafe events. In our earlier work1 we discussed the initial Prognostics Virtual Laboratory testbed development work and related results for milestones 1 & 2. This paper describes the design, development, and testing of the integrated tested which are part of milestone 3, along with our next steps for validation of this work. Through a framework consisting of software/hardware modules and associated interface clients, the distributed testbed enables safe, accurate, and inexpensive experimentation and research into airspace and vehicle prognosis that would not have been possible otherwise. The testbed modules can be used cohesively to construct complex and relevant airspace scenarios for research. Four modules are key to this research: the virtual aircraft module which uses the X-Plane simulator and X-PlaneConnect toolbox, the live aircraft module which connects fielded aircraft using onboard cellular communications devices, the hardware in the loop (HITL) module which connects laboratory based bench-top hardware testbeds and the research module which contains diagnostics and prognostics tools for analysis of live air traffic situations and vehicle health conditions. The testbed also features other modules for data recording and playback, information visualization, and air traffic generation. Software reliability, safety, and latency are some of the critical design considerations in development of the testbed.

LVC-DE↗

Human factors assessments of the STS-57 SpaceHab-1 mission

SpaceHab-1 (STS-57) was the first of six scheduled Commercial Middeck Augmentation Module (CMAM) missions seeking to offer entrepreneurial companies an opportunity to use the resource of microgravity. The SpaceHab module, which occupies about one-fourth of the payload bay, is approximately 2-3/4 meters (9 feet) long and 4 meters (13.5 feet) in diameter. It provides a shirt-sleeve working environment and contains the storage space equivalent of 50 middeck lockers, considerably over and above the number of experiments that can be carried in the orbiter middeck alone. A modified Spacelab tunnel links the SpaceHab module to the middeck. While in orbit, the orbiter payload bay doors remain open, exposing the padded exterior of the lab and tunnel to space until preparation for reentry at the end of the flight. The crew for SpaceHab-1 was comprised of four males and two females, each of whom participated in some part of the human factors assessment (HFA) evaluation. The HFA was one of over twenty experiments manifested on this maiden flight of the SpaceHab module. HFA consisted of HFA-EPROC, HFA-LIGHT, HFA-SOUND, HFA-QUEST, and HFA-TRANS. The goal of HFA-EPROC was to assess the advantages and disadvantages of paper versus computer presentation for procedural tasks. The next two evaluations investigated the module's lighting and acoustic environment. HFA-TRANS sought to evaluate the design of the SpaceHab tunnel and to characterize translation through it. HFA-QUEST represented a consolidation of the in-flight questions generated by the HFA principal investigators involved in the acoustic, lighting, and translation studies.

Mount, Frances E.↗

Shuttle Shortfalls and Lessons Learned for the Sustainment of Human Space Exploration

Much debate and national soul searching has taken place over the value of the Space Shuttle which first flew in 1981 and which is currently scheduled to be retired in 2010. Originally developed post-Saturn Apollo to emphasize affordability and safety, the reusable Space Shuttle instead came to be perceived as economically unsustainable and lacking the technology maturity to assure safe, routine access to low earth orbit (LEO). After the loss of two crews, aboard Challenger and Columbia, followed by the decision to retire the system in 2010, it is critical that this three decades worth of human space flight experience be well understood. Understanding of the past is imperative to further those goals for which the Space Shuttle was a stepping-stone in the advancement of knowledge. There was significant reduction in life cycle costs between the Saturn Apollo and the Space Shuttle. However, the advancement in life cycle cost reduction from Saturn Apollo to the Space Shuttle fell far short of its goal. This paper will explore the reasons for this shortfall. Shortfalls and lessons learned can be categorized as related to design factors, at the architecture, element and sub-system levels, as well as to programmatic factors, in terms of goals, requirements, management and organization. Additionally, no review of the Space Shuttle program and attempt to take away key lessons would be complete without a strategic review. That is, how do national space goals drive future space transportation development strategies? The lessons of the Space Shuttle are invaluable in all respects - technical, as in design, program-wise, as in organizational approach and goal setting, and strategically, within the context of the generational march toward an expanded human presence in space. Beyond lessons though (and the innumerable papers, anecdotes and opinions published on this topic) this paper traces tangible, achievable steps, derived from the Space Shuttle program experience, that must be a part of any 2l century initiatives furthering a growing human presence beyond earth.

Zapata, Edgar↗