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In this talk, I discuss a possible future for the global muon physics program. I focus on the future of flavor studies, precision measurements and searches that can be pursued with a new class of muonium beam sources, and emerging practical applications of muons in the industrial, academic, and government sectors.
Vehicle electrification is considered a pathway for on-road transportation decarbonization in China. Different from the conventional gasoline vehicles whose emissions are mainly released from vehicle tailpipes, emissions of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are from the upstream processes of electricity generation and vehicle manufacturing, thus a comprehensive lifecycle analysis and comparison of BEVs with gasoline vehicles is required to quantify the emission mitigation benefit of vehicle electrification and determine the path to a carbon-neutral future. In the study, we compare the cradle-to-grave (C2G) lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of gasoline and electric vehicles in China and analyze the greenhouse gas emission reduction of vehicle electrification in different provinces. Results show that under the current technologies, the national average C2G GHG emissions for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) of 100 miles (i.e., 160 km) and 300 miles (i.e., 480 km) all-electric range (AER) are 231 and 279 g CO2eq/km, respectively, 22% and 5% lower than those for gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Improving vehicle fuel efficiency by hybridizing gasoline ICEVs can effectively reduce C2G emissions to 212 g CO2eq/km. At the provincial level, C2G GHG emissions of BEVs vary according to the provincial electricity mix. In eight provinces, C2G GHG emissions of BEVs with 300 miles AER (BEV300s) are higher than those of gasoline ICEVs due to the GHG-intensive coal-based electricity mix. In the future scenario, with low carbon fuels (such as high-level bioethanol blending gasoline) and electricity decarbonization, the national average C2G emissions of hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and BEV300s can be reduced to 55 and 73 g CO2eq/km, respectively. Further decrease of C2G GHG emissions relies on reducing vehicle-cycle emissions from material processing and vehicle component manufacturing.
Vehicles with electrified powertrains carry the promise of significant reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from a lifecycle analysis (LCA) standpoint compared to conventional internal combustion engine (CICE) vehicles. However, trade-offs exist between different types of electrified powertrains in terms of cost, consumer acceptance, and GHG reduction efficacy for different operating conditions. The open-source tool CarGHG was developed with an aim to enable the exploration of a plethora of parametric study scenarios, including the cost of electrification technologies, different driving patterns and charging habits, and the cost and carbon intensity of electricity and fuel blends. This paper introduces the framework of CarGHG, then showcases total cost of ownership (TCO) and LCA GHG results for select models of light-duty vehicles. Another capability of CarGHG, which is the ability to estimate the performance of “virtual” vehicle models (perceived vehicle design specifications not yet on the market), is utilized to explore future scenarios of electrification and low-carbon fuel blends for Small Sports Utility Vehicles (SUVs), a popular light-duty vehicle segment in North America. With opportunities, but also uncertainties, in future scenarios, it is likely wise to continue pursuing multiple ways towards the reduction of LCA GHG.
We introduce a new class of solutions for Apodized Pupil Lyot Coronagraphs (APLC) with segmented aperture telescopes to remove broadband diffracted light from a star with a contrast level of 10{sup 10}. These new coronagraphs provide a key advance to enabling direct imaging and spectroscopy of Earth twins with future large space missions. Building on shaped pupil (SP) apodization optimizations, our approach enables two-dimensional optimizations of the system to address any aperture features such as central obstruction, support structures, or segment gaps. We illustrate the technique with a design that could reach a 10{sup 10} contrast level at 34 mas for a 12 m segmented telescope over a 10% bandpass centered at a wavelength of λ{sub 0} = 500 nm. These designs can be optimized specifically for the presence of a resolved star and, in our example, for stellar angular size up to 1.1 mas. This would allow one to probe the vicinity of Sun-like stars located beyond 4.4 pc, therefore, fully retiring this concern. If the fraction of stars with Earth-like planets is η{sub ⊕}=0.1, with 18% throughput, assuming a perfect, stable wavefront and considering photon noise only, 12.5 exo-Earth candidates could be detected around nearby stars with this design and a 12 m space telescope during a five-year mission with two years dedicated to exo-Earth detection (one total year of exposure time and another year of overheads). Our new hybrid APLC/SP solutions represent the first numerical solution of a coronagraph based on existing mask technologies and compatible with segmented apertures, and that can provide contrast compatible with detecting and studying Earth-like planets around nearby stars. They represent an important step forward toward enabling these science goals with future large space missions.
We present spectral analysis of the transiting Saturn-mass planet WASP-117 b, observed with the G141 grism of the Hubble Space Telescope's (HST) Wide Field Camera 3. We reduce and fit the extracted spectrum from the raw transmission data using the open-source software Iraclis before performing a fully Bayesian retrieval using the publicly available analysis suite TauREx 3.0. We detect water vapor alongside a layer of fully opaque cloud, retrieving a terminator temperature of T{sub term}=833{sub -156}{sup +260} K. In order to quantify the statistical significance of this detection, we employ the atmospheric detectability index (ADI), deriving a value of ADI = 2.30, which provides positive but not strong evidence against the flat-line model. Due to the eccentric orbit of WASP-117 b, it is likely that chemical and mixing timescales oscillate throughout orbit due to the changing temperature, possibly allowing warmer chemistry to remain visible as the planet begins transit, despite the proximity of its point of ingress to apastron. We present simulated spectra of the planet as would be observed by the future space missions such as the Atmospheric Remote-sensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey and the James Webb Space Telescope and show that, despite not being able to probe such chemistry with current HST data, these observatories should make it possible in the not too distant future.
The recent detections of two transit events attributed to the super-Earth candidate K2-18b have provided the unprecedented prospect of spectroscopically studying a habitable-zone planet outside the solar system. Orbiting a nearby M2.5 dwarf and receiving virtually the same stellar insolation as Earth, K2-18b would be a prime candidate for the first detailed atmospheric characterization of a habitable-zone exoplanet using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST)and James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Here, we report the detection of a third transit of K2-18b near the predicted transit time using the Spitzer Space Telescope. The Spitzer detection demonstrates the periodic nature of the two transit events discovered by K2, confirming that K2-18 is indeed orbited by a super-Earth in a 33 day orbit, ruling out the alternative scenario of two similarly sized, long-period planets transiting only once within the 75 day Kepler Space Telescope (K2) observation. We also find, however, that the transit event detected by Spitzer occurred 1.85 hr (7σ) before the predicted transit time. Our joint analysis of the Spitzer and K2 photometry reveals that this early occurrence of the transit is not caused by transit timing variations, but the result of an inaccurate ephemeris due to a previously undetected data anomaly in the K2 photometry. We refit the ephemeris and find that K2-18b would have been lost for future atmospheric characterizations with HST and JWST if we had not secured its ephemeris shortly after the discovery. We caution that immediate follow-up observations as presented here will also be critical for confirming and securing future planets discovered by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), in particular if only two transit events are covered by the relatively short 27-day TESS campaigns.
The National Science Foundation’s EarthCube End User Workshop was held at USC Wrigley Marine Science Center on Catalina Island, California in August 2013. The workshop was designed to explore and characterize the needs and tools available to the community that is focusing on microbial and physical oceanography research with a particular emphasis on ‘omic research. The assembled researchers outlined the existing concerns regarding the vast data resources that are being generated, and how we will deal with these resources as their volume and diversity increases. Particular attention was focused on the tools for handling and analyzing the existing data, on the need for the construction and curation of diverse federated databases, as well as development of shared, interoperable, “big-data capable” analytical tools. The key outputs from this workshop include (i) critical scientific challenges and cyber infrastructure constraints, (ii) the current and future ocean ‘omics science grand challenges and questions, and (iii) data management, analytical and associated and cyber-infrastructure capabilities required to meet critical current and future scientific challenges. The main thrust of the meeting and the outcome of this report is a definition of the ‘omics tools, technologies and infrastructures that facilitate continued advance in ocean science biology, marine biogeochemistry, and biological oceanography.
Tandem perovskite-silicon (TPS) photovoltaic (PV) technology is a promising pathway for achieving higher efficiencies than those of single-junction crystal-silicon (c-Si) technologies. In this work, a techno-economic assessment of a TPS module is performed considering a viable large-scale manufacturing process for two future scenarios in 2025 and 2030 which allowed us to identify the main cost drivers of the tandem module cost. Furthermore, to analyse the performance of tandem module-based utility-scale PV systems and understand their competitiveness in Europe, the levelized cost of electricity was compared to passivated emitter and rear cell as well as silicon heterojunction based PV systems. The aim of this work is to provide a cost and performance guidance for TPS modules which could contribute to future PV energy systems.
The United States Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Office held a Technical Review Meeting entitled “Current Status and Future Directions in Magnesium Corrosion Research” at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in April 2016. Here current funded Mg corrosion projects presented their latest results, along with invited presentations from academic and industrial researchers in the area of Mg corrosion. This paper overviews select topics from the meeting, with an emphasis on relaying meeting discussion points regarding future needs in understanding and mitigating Mg corrosion, particularly for automotive applications. Topics highlighted include the need for pretreatments and coatings suitable for mass vehicle production of Mg components, particularly for dissimilar metal joints involving Mg, Al, or steel, and corrosion evaluation methods more relevant to automotive components and operating conditions. Finally, from a scientific perspective, the need for better fundamental understanding of Mg dissolution, hydrogen evolution, and film formation behavior was a recurring theme, as was phenomena related to microgalvanic coupling involving second phases and impurities in Mg.
The success of future geostationary (GEO) satellite observation missions depends on our ability to design instruments that address their key scientific objectives. Here, an Observation System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is performed to quantify the constraints on methane (CH 4 ) emissions in North America obtained from shortwave infrared (SWIR), thermal infrared (TIR), and multi-spectral (SWIR+TIR) measurements in geostationary orbit and from future SWIR low-Earth orbit (LEO) measurements. Furthermore, we used an efficient stochastic algorithm to compute the information content of the inverted emissions at high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.7°) in a variational framework using the GEOS-Chem chemistry-transport model and its adjoint. Our results show that at sub-weekly timescales, SWIR measurements in GEO orbit can constrain about twice as many independent flux patterns than in LEO orbit, with a degree of freedom for signal (DOF) for the inversion of 266 and 115, respectively. Comparisons between TIR GEO and SWIR LEO configurations reveal that poor boundary layer sensitivities for the TIR measurements cannot be compensated for by the high spatiotemporal sampling of a GEO orbit. The benefit of a multi-spectral instrument compared to current SWIR products in a GEO context is shown for sub-weekly timescale constraints, with an increase in the DOF of about 50 % for a 3-day inversion. Our results further suggest that both the SWIR and multi-spectral measurements on GEO orbits could almost fully resolve CH 4 fluxes at a spatial resolution of at least 100 km × 100 km over source hotspots (emissions > 4 × 10 5 kg day -1 ). The sensitivity of the optimized emission scaling factors to typical errors in boundary and initial conditions can reach 30 and 50 % for the SWIR GEO or SWIR LEO configurations, respectively, while it is smaller than 5 % in the case of a multi-spectral GEO system. Our results demonstrate that multi-spectral measurements from a geostationary satellite platform would address the need for higher spatiotemporal constraints on CH 4 emissions while greatly mitigating the impact of inherent uncertainties in source inversion methods on the inferred fluxes.
Here, accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralisation of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between -1 and -12%. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralisation is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralisation or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralisation. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11–94% in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6–3.8 times higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for EP changes in some models but of low significance in others. Observational and experimental constraints on ecosystem structure and how the fixed carbon is routed through the ecosystem to produce export production are urgently needed in order to improve current generation ecosystem models and their ability to project future changes.
Abstract. The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4 mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 ∘C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.
Human migration is both motivated and constrained by a multitude of socioeconomic and environmental factors, including climate-related factors. Climatic factors exert an influence on local and regional population density. Here, we examine the implications of future motivation for humans to migrate by analyzing today's relationships between climatic factors and population density, with all other factors held constant. Such “all other factors held constant” analyses are unlikely to make quantitatively accurate predictions, but the order of magnitude and spatial pattern that come out of such an analysis can be useful when considering the influence of climate change on the possible scale and pattern of future incentives to migrate. Our results indicate that, within decades, climate change may provide hundreds of millions of people with additional incentive to migrate, largely from warm tropical and subtropical countries to cooler temperate countries, with India being the country with the greatest number of people with additional incentive to migrate. These climate-driven incentives would be among the broader constellation of incentives that influence migration decisions. Areas with the highest projected population growth rates tend to be areas that are likely to be most adversely affected by climate change.
Future changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are uncertain, both because future projections differ between climate models and because the large internal variability of ENSO clouds the diagnosis of forced changes in observations and individual climate model simulations. By leveraging 14 single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), we robustly isolate the time-evolving response of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability to anthropogenic forcing from internal variability in each SMILE. We find nonlinear changes in time in many models and considerable inter-model differences in projected changes in ENSO and the mean-state tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient. We demonstrate a linear relationship between the change in ENSO SST variability and the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient, although forced changes in the tropical Pacific SST gradient often occur later in the 21st century than changes in ENSO SST variability, which can lead to departures from the linear relationship. Single-forcing SMILEs show a potential contribution of anthropogenic forcing (aerosols and greenhouse gases) to historical changes in ENSO SST variability, while the observed historical strengthening of the tropical Pacific SST gradient sits on the edge of the model spread for those models for which single-forcing SMILEs are available. Our results highlight the value of SMILEs for investigating time-dependent forced responses and inter-model differences in ENSO projections. The nonlinear changes in ENSO SST variability found in many models demonstrate the importance of characterizing this time-dependent behavior, as it implies that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.
We present the first forcing interpretation of the future anthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumes parameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based on anthropogenic aerosol emissions for use in CMIP6 ( Riahi et al. , 2017 ; Gidden et al. , 2018 ) . We use the emissions to scale the observationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the associated effect on the cloud albedo of present-day ( Fiedler et al. , 2017 ; Stevens et al. , 2017 ) into the future. The resulting scenarios in MACv2-SP are then ranked according to their strength in forcing magnitude and spatial asymmetries for anthropogenic aerosol. All scenarios, except SSP3-70 and SSP4-60, show a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol by 2100 with a range from 108 % to 36 % of the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth in 2015. We estimate the radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosol from high- and low-end scenarios in the mid-2090s by performing ensembles of simulations with the atmosphere-only configuration of MPI-ESM1.2. MACv2-SP translates the CMIP6 emission scenarios for inducing anthropogenic aerosol forcing. With the implementation in our model, we obtain forcing estimates for both the shortwave instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) and the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosol relative to 1850. Here, ERF accounts for rapid atmospheric adjustments and natural variability internal to the model. The ERF of anthropogenic aerosol for the mid-2090s ranges from -0.15 W m -2 for SSP 1-19 to -0.54 W m -2 for SSP 3-70, i.e. the mid-2090s ERF is 30 %–108 % of the value in the mid-2000s due to differences in the emission pathway alone. Assuming a stronger Twomey effect changes these ERFs to -0.39 and -0.92 W m -2 , respectively, which are similar to estimates obtained from models with complex aerosol parameterisations. The year-to-year standard deviations around 0.3 W m -2 associated with natural variability highlight the necessity to average over sufficiently long time periods for estimating ERF; this is in contrast to RF that is typically well constrained after simulating just 1 year. The scenario interpretation of MACv2-SP will be used within the framework of CMIP6 and other cutting-edge scientific endeavours.
We present the first forcing interpretation of the future anthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumes parameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based on SO 2 and NH 3 emissions for use in CMIP6 (Riahi et al., 2017; Gidden et al., in prep.). We use the emissions to scale the observationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the associated effect on the cloud albedo of present-day (Fiedler et al., 2017; Stevens et al., 2017) into the future. The resulting scenarios in MACv2-SP are then ranked according to their strength in forcing magnitude and spatial asymmetries. Almost all scenarios show a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol by 2100 with a range of 108 % to 36 % of the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth in 2015. We estimate the spread in the radiative forcing associated with the scenarios in the mid-2090s by performing ensembles of simulations with the atmosphere-only configuration of MPI-ESM1.2. MACv2-SP herein translates the CMIP6 emission scenarios for inducing aerosol forcing. With the implementation in our model, we obtain forcing estimates for both the shortwave instantaneous (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) relative to 1850. Here, ERF accounts for rapid atmospheric adjustments and natural variability internal to the model. The spread for the mid-2090s is −0.20 to −0.57 Wm −2 (−0.15 to −0.54 Wm −2 ) for RF (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosol, associated with uncertainty in the emission pathway alone, i.e., the mid-2090s forcing ranges from 33–95% (30–108%) of the mid-2000s RF (ERF). We find a larger ERF spread of −0.15 to −0.92 Wm −2 , when we additionally consider uncertainty in the magnitude of the Twomey effect. The year-to-year standard deviations around 0.3 Wm −2 associated with natural variability highlights the necessity for averaging over sufficiently long time periods for estimating ERF, in contrast to RF that is typically well constrained after simulating just one year. The scenario interpretation of MACv2-SP will be used within the framework of CMIP6 and other cutting-edge scientific endeavours.
Distributed optical fibre sensing (DOFS) is a technology that enables continuous, real-time measurements of a range of environmental parameters along the length of a fibre optic cable. In this article, we review the recently emerged applications of DOFS techniques in physical oceanography and offer a perspective on the technology's potential for future growth within the field. The introduction of DOFS to physical oceanography is contextualised with a brief history of the technology, which spun off primarily from the use of seafloor-laid optical fibres for telecommunications purposes. The key components and underpinning physics of a DOFS system are outlined and, on their basis, the suite of variables that are observable with DOFS are discussed. The implementation factors of DOFS, which include trade-offs between measurement accuracy and spatio-temporal resolutions and ranges, are also examined. The physical oceanographic applications of DOFS to date are then illustrated with case examples of four distinct DOFS techniques: distributed temperature sensing (DTS), which can provide ocean temperature observations; distributed static strain sensing (DSS) and distributed acoustic sensing (DAS), which are sensitive to temperature, cable strain and strain-associated variables, such as pressure and ocean velocity; and ultra-long-range observations of ocean currents with optical interferometry. The forthcoming prospects of DOFS in physical oceanography are considered, and are proposed to include new fibre optic-based approaches to sense ocean salinity and measure through the water column. We conclude with reflections on the future role of DOFS within the Global Ocean Observing System, and highlight the opportunities provided by the existing world-wide network of seafloor-laid optical fibres.
Accurate glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling in the cryosphere is required for interpreting satellite, geophysical and geological records and for assessing the feedbacks of Earth deformation and sea-level change on marine ice-sheet grounding lines. GIA modelling in areas of active ice loss in West Antarctica is particularly challenging because the ice is underlain by laterally varying mantle viscosities that are up to several orders of magnitude lower than the global average, leading to a faster and more localised response of the solid Earth to ongoing and future ice-sheet retreat and necessitating GIA models that incorporate 3-D viscoelastic Earth structure. Improvements to GIA models allow for computation of the viscoelastic response of the Earth to surface ice loading at sub-kilometre resolution, and ice-sheet models and observational products now provide the inputs to GIA models at comparably unprecedented detail. However, the resolution required to accurately capture GIA in models remains poorly understood, and high-resolution calculations come at heavy computational expense. We adopt a 3-D GIA model with a range of Earth structure models based on recent seismic tomography and geodetic data to perform a comprehensive analysis of the influence of grid resolution on predictions of GIA in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) in West Antarctica. Through idealised sensitivity testing down to sub-kilometre resolution with spatially isolated ice loading changes, we find that a grid resolution of ~$\frac{1}{3}$ of the radius of the load or higher is required to accurately capture the elastic response of the Earth. However, when we consider more realistic, spatially coherent ice loss scenarios based on modern observational records and future ice-sheet model projections and adopt a viscoelastic Earth, we find that predicted deformation and sea-level change along the grounding line converge to within 5 % with grid resolutions of 7.5 km or higher, and to within 2% for grid resolutions of 3.75 km and higher, even when the input ice model is on a 1 km grid. Furthermore, we show that low mantle viscosities beneath the ASE lead to viscous deformation that contributes to the instrumental record on decadal timescales and equals or dominates over elastic effects by the end of the 21st century. Our findings suggest that for the range of resolutions of 1.9–15 km that we considered, the error due to adopting a coarser grid in this region is negligible compared to the effect of neglecting viscous effects and the uncertainty in the adopted mantle viscosity structure.