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Thermal conductivity in vibrationally excited gases.

Comparisons between experimental and theoretical values of the thermal conductivity for a series of nonpolar polyatomic gases show large discrepancies at higher temperatures where the vibrational contribution becomes increasingly important. Examination of various theoretical approaches indicates that the discrepancies can be attributed to approximating the coefficient characterizing the diffusion of vibrational energy, D sub vib, by the self-diffusion coefficient. The present theories cannot accurately predict D sub vib, and its measurement is extremely difficult. Consequently, the approach adopted by the author is to obtain D sub vib by using experimental values of the thermal conductivity. An attempt is made to correlate these values of D sub vib with vibrational relaxation time, so that values of D sub vib can be obtained for all nonpolar polyatomic gases.

Ahtye, W. F.↗

Ground-based observations at 34 microns.

Filtering techniques for a new photometric band from 28 to 40 microns are described together with the results of ground-based observations of planets, stars, and galactic nebulae conducted with 28- and 61-in. telescopes in this wavelength interval. The data indicate that high angular resolution and good sensitivity can be obtained at 34 microns from the ground. Some stars have very cold (less than 100 K) circumstellar dust shells or clouds. The Kleinmann-Low nebula in M42 is extremely bright at 34 microns, whereas the Ney-Allen nebula associated with the Trapezium stars is much weaker.

Low, F. J.↗

A model for estimating time-variant rainfall infiltration as a function of antecedent surface moisture and hydrologic soil type

Recent research indicates that the use of remote sensing techniques for the measurement of near surface soil moisture could be practical in the not too distant future. Other research shows that infiltration rates, especially for average or frequent rainfall events, are extremely sensitive to the proper definition and consideration of the role of the soil moisture at the beginning of the rainfall. Thus, it is important that an easy to use, but theoretically sound, rainfall infiltration model be available if the anticipated remotely sensed soil moisture data is to be optimally utilized for hydrologic simulation. A series of numerical experiments with the Richards' equation for an array of conditions anticipated in watershed hydrology were used to develop functional relationships that describe temporal infiltration rates as a function of soil type and initial moisture conditions.

Wilkening, H. A.↗

Far-infrared and submillimeter-wavelength observations of star-forming dense cores. I - Spectra

Far-infrared and submillimeter photometry of 10 low-mass star formation regions containing embedded IRAS sources is presented. These new observations define the peak of the spectral energy distributions of these objects and provide more precise estimates of their bolometric luminosities. Two new sources, L1527 and L483, are among the reddest known low-mass objects, with spectral energy distribution peaks at 100-200 microns and extremely steep IRAS slopes. These cold sources have spectra which are similar to blackbodies of 30-40 K but have significant excess emission on the Wien side. Models of the spectral energy distributions using a spherically symmetric core structure indicate that these sources have visual extinctions greater than 1000 mag. However, models with these large extinctions predict too little near-infrared emission. A nonspherically symmetric distribution of circumstellar material may play a role in the generation of the extra near-infrared emission.

Ladd, E. F.↗

Rare Potassium-Bearing Mica in Allan Hills 84001: Additional Constraints on Carbonate Formation

There have been presented several intriguing observations suggesting evidence of fossil life in martian orthopyroxenite ALH 84001. These exciting and controversial observations have stimulated extensive debate over the origin and history of ALH 84001, but many issues still remain unresolved. Among the most important is the question of the temperature at which the carbonates, which host the putative microfossils, formed. Oxygen- isotopic data, while showing that the carbonates are generally out of isotopic equilibria with the host rock, cannot constrain their temperature of formation. Both low- and high-temperature scenarios are plausible depending on whether carbonate growth occurred in an open or closed system. Petrographic arguments have generally been used to support a high-temperature origin but these appear to be suspect because they assume equilibrium between carbonate compositions that are not in contact. Some observations appear to be consistent with shock mobilization and growth from immiscible silicate-carbonate melts at high temperatures. Proponents of a low-temperature origin for the carbonates are hampered by the fact that there is currently no evidence of hydrous phases that would indicate low temperatures and the presence of a hydrous fluid during the formation of the carbonates. However, the absence of hydrous phases does not rule out carbonate formation at low temperatures, because the carbonate forming fluids may have been extremely CO2 rich, such that hydrous phases would not have been stabilized. In this study, I have carried out additional Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) studies of ALH-84001 and have found evidence of very rare phyllosilicates, which appear to be convincingly of pre-terrestrial origin. At present these observations are limited to one occurrence: further studies are in progress to determine if the phyllosilicates are more widespread.

Brearley, A. J.↗

Dominant Presence of Oxygenated Organic Species in the Remote Southern Hemisphere Troposphere

Oxygenated organic species are intimately involved with the fate of nitrogen oxides (NO(sub x)) and hydrogen oxides (HO(sub x)), which are necessary for tropospheric ozone formation. A recent airborne experiment (March-April, 1999) focused over the southern hemisphere (SH) Pacific Ocean (PEM-tropics-B) provided a first opportunity for a detailed characterization of the oxygenated organic composition of the remote southern hemisphere troposphere. Three co-located multi-channel airborne instruments measured a dozen key oxygenated species (carbonyls, alcohols, organic nitrates, organic pernitrates, peroxides) along with a comprehensive suite of C2-C8 Nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHC). These measurements reveal that in the tropical SH (0-30 deg south), oxygenated chemical abundances are extremely large and collectively are nearly five times those of NMHC. Even in the NH remote atmospheres their burden is equal to or greater than that of NMHC. The relatively uniform global distribution oxygenates (EPSILON Ox-org) is indicative of the presence of large natural and distributed sources. A global 3-D model, reflecting the present state of science, is unable to correctly simulate the atmospheric distribution and variability of several of these species.

Singh, H.↗

Potential Evaporite Biomarkers from the Dead Sea

The Dead Sea is located on the northern branch of the African-Levant Rift systems. The rift system, according to one model, was formed by a series of strike slip faults, initially forming approximately two million years ago. The Dead Sea is an evaporite basin that receives freshwater from springs and from the Jordan River. The Dead Sea is different from other evaporite basins, such as the Great Salt Lake, in that it possesses high concentrations of magnesium and has an average pH of 6.1. The dominant cation in the Great Salt Lake is sodium, and the pH is 7.7. Calcium concentrations are also higher in the Dead Sea than in the Great Salt Lake. Both basins are similar in that the dominant anion is chlorine and the salinity levels are approximately 20 %. Other common cations that have been identified from the waters of the Dead Sea and the Great Salt Lake include sodium and potassium. A variety of Archea, Bacteria, and a single genus of a green algal, Dunaliella, has been described from the Dead Sea. Earlier studies concentrated on microbial identification and analysis of their unique physiology that allows them to survive in this type of extreme environment. Potential microbial fossilization processes, microbial fossils, and the metallic ions associated with fossilization have not been studied thoroughly. The present study is restricted to identifying probable microbial morphologies and associated metallic ions. XRD (X Ray Diffraction) analysis indicates the presence of halite, quartz, and orthoclase feldspar. In addition to these minerals, other workers have reported potassium chloride, magnesium bromide, magnesium chloride, calcium chloride, and calcium sulfate. Halite, calcium sulfate, and orthoclase were examined in this report for the presence of microbes, microbially induced deposits or microbial alteration. Neither the gypsum nor the orthoclase surfaces possesses any obvious indications of microbial life or fossilization. The sand-sized orthoclase particles are weathered with 122 extensive fan-shaped mineral deposits. The gypsum deposits are associated with halite minerals and also exhibit extensive weathering. Halite minerals represent the only substrates that have probable rod-shaped microbial structures with long, filamentous, apical extensions. EDS (energy dispersive x-ray) analysis of the putative microbes indicates elevated calcium levels that are enriched with magnesium. The rod-shaped structures exhibit possible fossilization stages. Rhombohedralshaped minerals of magnesium-enriched calcium carbonate are deposited on the microbial surfaces, and eventually coat the entire microbial surface. The sodium chloride continues to crystallize on nearby halite surface and even crystallizes on the fossilized microbial remains. The putative fossils are found exclusively on halite surfaces, and all contained elevated levels of calcium magnesium cations. Both of these metallic cations are associated with microbial activity and fossilization. Their morphological diversity is low in comparison with the reported living Dead Sea microbial population. If we examine the fossil record for multicellular organisms, fossilization rates are lower for soft-bodied organisms than for those possessing hard parts, i.e. shells, bones. For example, smaller, single celled organisms would have a smaller chance of fossilization; their fossilized shapes could be mistaken for abiotic products. Another consideration is that dead organisms in the water column are probably utilized as a food source by other microbes before fossilization processes are completed. This may be an important consideration as we attempt to model and interpret ancient microbial environments either on Earth or on Mars.

Morris, Penny A.↗

The Development and Hover Test Application of a Projection Moire Interferometry Blade Displacement Measurement System

Projection moir interferometry (PMI) was employed to measure blade deflections during a hover test of a generic model-scale rotor in the NASA Langley 14x22 subsonic wind tunnel s hover facility. PMI was one of several optical measurement techniques tasked to acquire deflection and flow visualization data for a rotor at several distinct heights above a ground plane. Two of the main objectives of this test were to demonstrate that multiple optical measurement techniques can be used simultaneously to acquire data and to identify and address deficiencies in the techniques. Several PMI-specific technical challenges needed to be addressed during the test and in post-processing of the data. These challenges included developing an efficient and accurate calibration method for an extremely large (65 inch) height range; automating the analysis of the large amount of data acquired during the test; and developing a method to determinate the absolute displacement of rotor blades without a required anchor point measurement. The results indicate that the use of a single-camera/single-projector approach for the large height range reduced the accuracy of the PMI system compared to PMI systems designed for smaller height ranges. The lack of the anchor point measurement (due to a technical issue with one of the other measurement techniques) limited the ability of the PMI system to correctly measure blade displacements to only one of the three rotor heights tested. The new calibration technique reduced the data required by 80 percent while new post-processing algorithms successfully automated the process of locating rotor blades in images, determining the blade quarter chord location, and calculating the blade root and blade tip heights above the ground plane.

Sekula, Martin K.↗

First Evaluation of the Climatological Calibration Algorithm in the Real-time TMPA Precipitation Estimates over Two Basins at High and Low Latitudes

The TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) system underwent a crucial upgrade in early 2009 to include a climatological calibration algorithm (CCA) to its realtime product 3B42RT, and this algorithm will continue to be applied in the future Global Precipitation Measurement era constellation precipitation products. In this study, efforts are focused on the comparison and validation of the Version 6 3B42RT estimates before and after the climatological calibration is applied. The evaluation is accomplished using independent rain gauge networks located within the high-latitude Laohahe basin and the low-latitude Mishui basin, both in China. The analyses indicate the CCA can effectively reduce the systematic errors over the low-latitude Mishui basin but misrepresent the intensity distribution pattern of medium-high rain rates. This behavior could adversely affect TMPA's hydrological applications, especially for extreme events (e.g., floods and landslides). Results also show that the CCA tends to perform slightly worse, in particular, during summer and winter, over the high-latitude Laohahe basin. This is possibly due to the simplified calibration-processing scheme in the CCA that directly applies the climatological calibrators developed within 40 degrees latitude to the latitude belts of 40 degrees N-50 degrees N. Caution should therefore be exercised when using the calibrated 3B42RT for heavy rainfall-related flood forecasting (or landslide warning) over high-latitude regions, as the employment of the smooth-fill scheme in the CCA bias correction could homogenize the varying rainstorm characteristics. Finally, this study highlights that accurate detection and estimation of snow at high latitudes is still a challenging task for the future development of satellite precipitation retrievals.

TMPA-RT Precipitation Estimates↗

Lessons Learned Study Final Report for the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate

This report is the final product of a 90-day study performed for the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate. The study was to assemble lessons NASA has learned from previous programs that could help the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate pursue the Exploration vision. It focuses on those lessons that should have the greatest significance to the Directorate during the formulation of program and mission plans. The study team reviewed a large number of lessons learned reports and data bases, including the Columbia Accident Investigation Board and Rogers Commission reports on the Shuttle accidents, accident reports from robotic space flight systems, and a number of management reviews by the Defense Sciences Board, Government Accountability Office, and others. The consistency of the lessons, findings, and recommendations validate the adequacy of the data set. In addition to reviewing existing databases, a series of workshops was held at each of the NASA centers and headquarters that included senior managers from the current workforce as well as retirees. The full text of the workshop reports is included in Appendix A. A lessons learned website was opened up to permit current and retired NASA personnel and on-site contractors to input additional lessons as they arise. These new lessons, when of appropriate quality and relevance, will be brought to the attention of managers. The report consists of four parts: Part 1 provides a small set of lessons, called the Executive Lessons Learned, that represent critical lessons that the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate should act on immediately. This set of Executive Lessons and their supporting rationale have been reviewed at length and fully endorsed by a team of distinguished NASA alumni; Part 2 contains a larger set of lessons, called the Selected Lessons Learned, which have been chosen from the lessons database and center workshop reports on the basis of their specific significance and relevance to the near-term work of the Exploration Directorate. These lessons frequently support the Executive lessons but are more general in nature; Part 3 consists of the reports of the center workshops that were conducted as part of this activity. These reports are included in their entirety (approximately 200 pages) in Appendix G and have significance for specific managers; Part 4 consists of the remainder of the lessons that have been selected by this effort and assembled into a database for the use of the Explorations Directorate. The database is archived and hosted in the Lessons Learned Knowledge Network, which provides a flexible search capability using a wide variety of search terms. Finally, a spreadsheet lists databases searched and a bibliography identifies reports that have been reviewed as sources of lessons for this task. NASA has been presented with many learning opportunities. We have conducted numerous programs, some extremely successful and others total failures. Most have been documented with a formal lessons learned activity, but we have not always incorporated these learning opportunities into our normal modes of business. For example, the Robbins Report of 2001 clearly indicates that many project failures of the past two decades were the result of violating well documented best practices, often in direct violation of management instructions and directives. An overarching lesson emerges: that disciplined execution in accordance with proven best practices is the greatest single contributor to a successful program. The Lessons Learned task team offers a sincere hope that the lessons presented herein will be helpful to the Exploration Systems Directorate in charting and executing their course. The success of the Directorate and of NASA in general depends on our collective ability to move forward without having to relearn the lessons of those who have gone before.

Van Laak, Jim↗

Exploring the Spatial Relationship Between Demographic Indicators and the Built Environment of a City

In addition to global and regional drivers of urbanization, neighborhood development in urban areas across the United States has been shown to be influenced by various local socio-economic factors. These factors, despite varying across socio-economic groups, have large implications regarding a population’s vulnerability to extreme climate events, including heat waves resulting in adverse health impacts. Additionally, the demographics of an urban area can shape its infrastructural characteristics, causing different populations groups to face varying levels of risks and benefits. As a result, the urban morphology and socio-economic characteristics of a city are deeply intertwined; however, their interactions on a finer scale are not yet fully understood. This research aims to better understand the relationships between various socio-economic factors and the built environment of a city, considering variability in building types, and temperature patterns. This research focuses on the city of Las Vegas, NV, and uses spatial data analysis to understand the correlation between of socio-economic characteristics, building morphology, building characteristics, and temperature data to understand the correlation between these various factors. Results of these research shows there is a distinct pattern of clustering of socio-economic characteristics with the city and there is a distinct correlation between age and cost, socio-economic characteristics, and locations of high heat distribution within the city.

Singh, Ridhima↗

Sensitivity and vulnerability to summer heat extremes in major cities of the United States

Many cities are experiencing increases in extreme heat because of global temperature rise combined with the urban heat island effect. The heterogeneity of urban morphology also leads to fine-scale variability in potential for heat exposure. Yet, how this rise in temperature and local variability together impacts urban residents differently at exposure-relevant scales is still not clear. Here we map the Universal Thermal Climate Index, a more complete indicator of human heat stress at an unprecedentedly fine spatial resolution (1 m), for 14 major cities in the United States using urban microclimate modeling. We examined the different heat exposure levels across different socioeconomic and racial/ethnic groups in these cities, finding that income level is most consistently associated with heat stress. We further conducted scenario simulations for a hypothetical 1 °C increase of air temperature in all cities. Results show that a 1 °C increase would have a substantial impact on human heat stress, with impacts that differ across cities. The results of this study can help us better evaluate the impact of extreme heat on urban residents at decision-relevant scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PHYTOCHROME C regulation of photoperiodic flowering via PHOTOPERIOD1 is mediated by EARLY FLOWERING 3 in Brachypodium distachyon

Daylength sensing in many plants is critical for coordinating the timing of flowering with the appropriate season. Temperate climate-adapted grasses such as Brachypodium distachyon flower during the spring when days are becoming longer. The photoreceptor PHYTOCHROME C is essential for long-day (LD) flowering in B. distachyon. PHYC is required for the LD activation of a suite of genes in the photoperiod pathway including PHOTOPERIOD1 (PPD1) that, in turn, result in the activation of FLOWERING LOCUS T (FT1)/FLORIGEN, which causes flowering. Thus, B. distachyon phyC mutants are extremely delayed in flowering. Here we show that PHYC-mediated activation of PPD1 occurs via EARLY FLOWERING 3 (ELF3), a component of the evening complex in the circadian clock. The extreme delay of flowering of the phyC mutant disappears when combined with an elf3 loss-of-function mutation. Moreover, the dampened PPD1 expression in phyC mutant plants is elevated in phyC/elf3 mutant plants consistent with the rapid flowering of the double mutant. We show that loss of PPD1 function also results in reduced FT1 expression and extremely delayed flowering consistent with results from wheat and barley. Additionally, elf3 mutant plants have elevated expression levels of PPD1, and we show that overexpression of ELF3 results in delayed flowering associated with a reduction of PPD1 and FT1 expression, indicating that ELF3 represses PPD1 transcription consistent with previous studies showing that ELF3 binds to the PPD1 promoter. Indeed, PPD1 is the main target of ELF3-mediated flowering as elf3/ppd1 double mutant plants are delayed flowering. Our results indicate that ELF3 operates downstream from PHYC and acts as a repressor of PPD1 in the photoperiod flowering pathway of B. distachyon.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Impurity screening behavior of the high-field side scrape-off layer in near-double-null configurations: prospect for mitigating plasma-material interactions on RF actuators and first-wall components

The impurity screening response of the high-field side (HFS) scrape-off layer (SOL) to localized nitrogen injection is investigated on Alcator C-Mod for magnetic equilibria spanning lower-single null, double-null and upper single null configurations under otherwise identical plasma conditions. L-mode, EDA H-mode and I-mode discharges are investigated. HFS impurity screening is found to depend on magnetic flux balance and the direction of B×?B relative to the most active divertor. Impurity ‘plume’ emission patterns indicate that both parallel and perpendicular (E×B) flows in the SOL contribute to the ‘flushing’ of impurities towards the active divertor, thereby affecting the overall impurity screening behavior. Despite the fact that the HFS scrape-off layer is extremely narrow in near-double-null configurations, this SOL is able to screen locally injected nitrogen at least as effectively as the low-field side (LFS) SOL – up to a factor of 10 more effective, depending on specific plasma conditions and whether the magnetic geometry produces parallel flows that work with or against E×B flows. For situations in which the E×B drift of the impurity ions opposes parallel flow toward the primary divertor, HFS impurity screening is found to be least effective. When E×B drifts assist parallel flow toward the primary divertor, HFS impurity screening is found to be very effective. These data support the idea of placing RF actuators and close-fitting wall components on the high-field side of the tokamak. With this configuration, near-double-null magnetic topologies may be used for active control of plasma parameters at the antenna/plasma interface for optimal RF coupling, mitigate the generation of local impurities from plasma-material interactions and, taking advantage of favorable plasma flows and good screening properties of the HFS SOL, further minimize the impact of wall-born impurity sources on the plasma core.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The effects of high energy particles on planetary missions

Researchers review the background and motivation for the detailed study of the variability and uncertainty of the particle environment from a space systems planning perspective. The engineering concern raised by each environment is emphasized rather than the underlying physics of the magnetosphere or the sun. Missions now being planned span the short term range of one to three years to periods over ten years. Thus the engineering interest is beginning to stretch over periods of several solar cycles. Coincidentally, detailed measurements of the environment are now becoming available over that period of time. Both short term and long term environmental predictions are needed for proper mission planning. Short term predictions, perhaps based on solar indices, real time observations, or short term systematics, are very useful in near term planning -- launches, EVAs (extravehicular activities), coordinated observations, and experiments which require the magnetosphere to be in a certain state. Long term predictions of both average and extreme conditions are essential to mission design. Engineering considerations are many times driven by the worst case environment. Knowledge of the average conditions and their variability allows trade-off studies to be made, implementation of designs which degrade gracefully under multi-stress environments.

Robinson, Paul A., Jr.↗

Evaluation of restraint system concepts for the Japanese Experiment Module flight demonstration

The current International Space Station configuration includes a Japanese Experiment Module which relies on a large manipulator and a smaller dexterous manipulator to operate outside the pressurized environment of the experiment module. The module's flight demonstration is a payload that will be mounted in the aft flight deck on STS-87 to evaluate a prototype of the dexterous manipulator. Since the payload operations entail two 8-hour scenarios on consecutive days, adequate operator restraint at the workstation will be critical to the perceived success or failure of the payload. Simulations in reduced gravity environment on the KC-135A were the only way to evaluate the restraint systems and workstation configuration. Two astronaut and two non-astronaut operators evaluated the Advanced Lower Body Extremities Restraint Test and a foot loop restraint system by performing representative tasks at the workstation in each of the two restraint systems; at the end of each flight they gave their impressions of each system and the workstation. Results indicated that access to the workstation switch panels was difficult and manipulation of the hand controllers forced operators too low for optimal viewing of the aft flight deck monitors. The workstation panel should be angled for better visibility, and infrequently used switches should be on the aft flight deck panel. Pitch angle and placement of the hand controllers should optimize the operator's eye position with respect to the monitors. The lower body restraint was preferred over the foot loops because it allowed operators to maintain a more relaxed posture during long-duration tasks, its height adjustability allowed better viewing of aft flight deck monitors, and it provided better restraint for reacting forces imparted on the operator at the workstation. The foot loops provide adequate restraint for the flight demonstration tasks identified. Since results will impact the design of the workstation, both restraints should be flown and used during operation of the flight demonstration payload to evaluate the effect of restraint during long-duration tasks.

Sampaio, Carlos E.↗

Low-speed longitudinal aerodynamic characteristics through poststall for 21 novel planform shapes

To identify planform characteristics which have promise for a highly maneuverable vehicle, an investigation was conducted in the Langley Subsonic Basic Research Tunnel to determine the low-speed longitudinal aerodynamics of 21 planform geometries. Concepts studied included twin bodies, double wings, cutout wings, and serrated forebodies. The planform models tested were all 1/4-in.-thick flat plates with beveled edges on the lower surface to ensure uniform flow separation at angle of attack. A 1.0-in.-diameter cylindrical metric body with a hemispherical nose was used to house the six-component strain gauge balance for each configuration. Aerodynamic force and moment data were obtained across an angle-of-attack range of 0 to 70 deg with zero sideslip at a free-stream dynamic pressure of 30 psf. Surface flow visualization studies were also conducted on selected configurations using fluorescent minitufts. Results from the investigation indicate that a cutout wing planform can improve lift characteristics; however, cutout size, shape, and position and wing leading-edge sweep will all influence the effectiveness of the cutout configuration. Tests of serrated forebodies identified this concept as an extremely effective means of improving configuration lift characteristics; increases of up to 25 percent in the value of maximum lift coefficient were obtained.

Gatlin, Gregory M.↗

Surface-Wind Anomalies in North-Atlantic and North Pacific from SSM/I Observations: Influence on Temperature of Adjoining Land Regions

Surface winds over the oceans are derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) measurements, assigning direction by Variational Analysis Method (VAM). Validations by comparison with other measurements indicate highly-satisfactory data quality. Providing global coverage from 1988, the dataset is a convenient source for surface-wind climatology. In this study, the interannual variability of zonal winds is analyzed concentrating on the westerlies in North Atlantic and North Pacific, above 30 N. Interannual differences in the westerlies exceeding 10 m sec (exp -1) are observed over large regions, often accompanied by changes of the same magnitude in the easterlies below 30 N. We concentrate on February/March, since elevated temperatures, by advancing snow-melt, can produce early spring. The extremely strong westerlies in 1997 observed in these months over North Atlantic (and also North Pacific) apparently contributed to large surface-temperature anomalies in western Europe, on the order of +3 C above the climatic monthly average for England and France. At these latitudes strong positive anomalies extended in a ring around the globe. We formulated an Index of South westerlies for the North Atlantic, which can serve as an indicator for day-by-day advection effects into Europe. In comparing 1997 and 1998 with the previous years, we establish significant correlations with the temperature anomalies (one to five days later, depending on the region, and on the season). This variability of the ocean-surface winds and of the temperature anomalies on land may be related to the El Nino/La Nina oscillations. Such large temperature fluctuations over large areas, whatever the cause, can be regarded as noise in attempts to assess long-term trends in global temperature.

Otterman, Joseph↗